32 replies to this topic

[xjack]

Linares has been raking in Double-A, putting up a 1.095 OPS.
http://www.milb.com/..._pbp&pid=493333

Almost as impressive as the .380 BA and the power numbers (3 HRs, 2 2Bs in 14 games) is the fact he has more walks (8) than strikeouts (7). The guy is already 27 years old, so there's really no service-time reason to hold him back. Given the dreck currently manning centerfield, isn't it time to give Linares a chance?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Linares has been raking in Double-A, putting up a 1.095 OPS.
http://www.milb.com/..._pbp&pid=493333

Almost as impressive as the .380 BA and the power numbers (3 HRs, 2 2Bs in 14 games) is the fact he has more walks (8) than strikeouts (7). The guy is already 27 years old, so there's really no service-time reason to hold him back. Given the dreck currently manning centerfield, isn't it time to give Linares a chance?

I would rather simply accept that Ellsbury's absence has created a black hole of offensive suck, and call up Lin instead. From my limited time watching him, Linares plays CF like a corner outfielder -- I don't see a reason to play him over the McDonald-Ross-Sweeney alignment.

But Repko gives them nothing at all. At least Lin could provide significant defensive value, maybe take a couple walks, and lay down some bunts.

[xjack]

Well, Linares wouldn't have to play CF. It could be Ross or Sweeney, with Linares manning a corner OF. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Crawford eventually ends up in CF when he returns. Maybe that's front office's long-term plan should Ellsbury leave via free agency or trade?

I don't mind Lin as a 4th or 5th OF, or even as a starter if you've got big bats in LF and RF. But the way this team is configured, I think the Sox have to roll the dice on finding more offense.

[Rudy's Curve]

I don't mind Lin as a 4th or 5th OF, or even as a starter if you've got big bats in LF and RF. But the way this team is configured, I think the Sox have to roll the dice on finding more offense.

The Red Sox score 4.9 runs a game, .3 better than league average. They allow 6.2 a game, 1.6 worse than league average. The bullpen can't miss bats. They absolutely need a competent to very good defensive CF. Lin best fits the bill, and it's hard to imagine he'd be much worse than McDonald vs. RHP and Sweeney vs. LHP.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Well, Linares wouldn't have to play CF. It could be Ross or Sweeney, with Linares manning a corner OF. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Crawford eventually ends up in CF when he returns. Maybe that's front office's long-term plan should Ellsbury leave via free agency or trade?

I don't mind Lin as a 4th or 5th OF, or even as a starter if you've got big bats in LF and RF. But the way this team is configured, I think the Sox have to roll the dice on finding more offense.

Repko came up after hitting .538/.571/.846 in AAA and .289/.373/.400 in Spring Training -- both lines well ahead of Linares. I think the Sox already decided to roll those dice.

And as for replacing Ellsbury long-term...what's brewing down in Salem needs to be considered at least Plan B.

[xjack]

The point isn't how many runs they score but how the heck they are going to make up that -1.3 RS/RA differential. And unless Lin has a 20 foot vertical jump and covers more ground than Gary Petit, I don't see him being a difference maker -- particularly since Ross and Sweeney are not bad defenders, simply league-average ones.

I'm not suggesting that the Sox make a big commitment to Linares. Just stick him in there for a week or two, and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle.

Repko came up after hitting .538/.571/.846 in AAA and .289/.373/.400 in Spring Training -- both lines well ahead of Linares. I think the Sox already decided to roll those dice.

At this point in his career, I think we already know what Repko's upside is.

Edited by xjack, 20 April 2012 - 09:30 AM.

[twothousandone]

Linares has been raking in Double-A, putting up a 1.095 OPS.
http://www.milb.com/..._pbp&pid=493333

Almost as impressive as the .380 BA and the power numbers (3 HRs, 2 2Bs in 14 games) is the fact he has more walks (8) than strikeouts (7). The guy is already 27 years old, so there's really no service-time reason to hold him back. Given the dreck currently manning centerfield, isn't it time to give Linares a chance?

If the Sox believe he projects as an average of above average major league OF, possibly a CF, then they can’t rush him. Jumping from AA isn’t always rushing someone, but they can’t decide based on the need in Boston, they have to decide on Linares development path.

If ever there is a time to deviate from that, it is when you have long-term solution under your control. Linares MAY have to replace Ellsbury in a couple of years. If so, they’ll need him then to be good, perhaps very good. The path to make him that is what they have to determine and stick with. Unfortunately, that means CF in Fenway be damned.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

At this point in his career, I think we already know what Repko's upside is.

Brian Anderson?

[Rudy's Curve]

The point isn't how many runs they score but how the heck they are going to make up that -1.3 RS/RA differential. And unless Lin has a 20 foot vertical jump and covers more ground than Gary Petit, I don't see him being a difference maker -- particularly since Ross and Sweeney are not bad defenders, simply league-average ones.

I'm not suggesting that the Sox make a big commitment to Linares. Just stick him in there for a week or two, and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle.

Linares is a 27-year old in AA whose career OBP was .281 before this season. There is next to zero chance he can hit big league RHP. I doubt he can hit LHP better than Repko (not that either of them are good at it), and he doesn't offer a defensive upgrade. Lin can't hit, but he can at least offer run prevention ability for a team that has a big problem with it, and given the alternatives are McDonald vs. RHP (with Ross in CF) and Repko, I think he's a net upgrade.

[xjack]

Twothousandone, I guess the question is whether the developmental argument supersedes the baseball-age argument. At 27, Linares may already be at or near his peak baseball production... I'm by no means implying that these players are similar, but it's sort of like the dilemma the Reds faced with Josh Hamilton in 2007 (when he was already 26 and hadn't played any professional ball in 4 years) or the one Oakland faced this year with Yoenis Cespedes, who is also 26.

At that age, is the development you can still achieve in the minors likely to exceed the value of having the guy play for you during his peak year(s)?

[edit] FWIW, based upon data I plucked from Fangraphs and soxprospects.com, Linares's OPS in 2009 -- his last season in Cuba -- was actually higher than that of Cespedes: 1.018 vs. 1.012.

http://www.fangraphs...talents-in-mlb/
http://www.soxprospe...inares-juan.htm

Edited by xjack, 20 April 2012 - 09:59 AM.

[Detts]

If the Sox believe he projects as an average of above average major league OF, possibly a CF, then they can’t rush him. Jumping from AA isn’t always rushing someone, but they can’t decide based on the need in Boston, they have to decide on Linares development path.

If ever there is a time to deviate from that, it is when you have long-term solution under your control. Linares MAY have to replace Ellsbury in a couple of years. If so, they’ll need him then to be good, perhaps very good. The path to make him that is what they have to determine and stick with. Unfortunately, that means CF in Fenway be damned.

Linares is raking because he is a 27 year old in AA.

He was placed at Pawtucket last year, but hurt himself. Why he is in Portland is a mystery.

[cahlton]

Linares is a 27-year old in AA whose career OBP was .281 before this season.

... in a grand total of 128 plate appearances. This year, in 59 PA, his OBP is .475, .95 above his BA of .380.

[trekfan55]

The Red Sox score 4.9 runs a game, .3 better than league average. They allow 6.2 a game, 1.6 worse than league average. The bullpen can't miss bats. They absolutely need a competent to very good defensive CF. Lin best fits the bill, and it's hard to imagine he'd be much worse than McDonald vs. RHP and Sweeney vs. LHP.

Does anyone know why he was called up for only one game?

[Savin Hillbilly]

And as for replacing Ellsbury long-term...what's brewing down in Salem needs to be considered at least Plan B.

Ellsbury's an FA after 2013....do we expect JBJ to be ready Opening Day 2014? High-A to MLB in two years would be pretty quick progress. At age 22 I guess it's not unreasonable to hope for, but that Plan B might have to include a bridge of some sort.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Does anyone know why he was called up for only one game?

Because BobbyV didn't want him, but Repko had tweaked his hammy and needed one more game in AAA to prove he was healthy before being added to the 40-man.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Does anyone know why he was called up for only one game?

I think they wanted Repko, but he was coming off of a minor injury and wanted to make sure they had a healthy guy in the lineup on Saturday, so they called up Lin.

[Rudy's Curve]

... in a grand total of 128 plate appearances. This year, in 59 PA, his OBP is .475, .95 above his BA of .380.

They are small sample sizes over two seasons, but he hadn't shown any on-base ability that you'd expect for someone that's old for the leagues. He has this year, but he's still a 27-year old in AA with no track record to fall back on. He needs to do this for a lot longer to be considered for a big league call-up.

[cahlton]

They are small sample sizes over two seasons, but he hadn't shown any on-base ability that you'd expect for someone that's old for the leagues. He has this year, but he's still a 27-year old in AA with no track record to fall back on. He needs to do this for a lot longer to be considered for a big league call-up.

My point is that I don't see how you can draw any conclusions at all about his OBP skills from such a small and contradictory sample size, particularly given the fact that he's been injured and has had to acculturate to a new language and league. His OBP numbers in Cuba were off the charts; maybe you've got an algorithm that will project them? Otherwise I don't know what more we can say about him other than what SoxProspects does:

Advanced defensive center fielder with above-average range and the instincts to get solid reads on balls off the bat. Good closing speed. Moves well from gap-to-gap. Average, accurate arm with a quick release. Compact swing. Generates solid-average bat speed, but has the tendency to hook his swing and over-pull. Average present power, quick bat. Will have to show ability to hit advanced secondary pitches for power to translate into game action. Attacks strikes, but needs to be more selective with which ones he can handle. On the older side for a Cuban defector.

[xjack]

He has this year, but he's still a 27-year old in AA with no track record to fall back on. He needs to do this for a lot longer to be considered for a big league call-up.

Not to beat a dead horse -- okay, that's probably what I'm doing -- but based upon that argument, would you put Cespedes in the Sox OF if he somehow fell into our lap? Cespedes is about the same age and like Linares has little track record. Again, from Fangraphs, here's the Cuban comparison of the two players:

05-06:
Linares: .319/.385/.513.
Cespedes: .351/.444/.649
06-07:
Linares: .345/.467/.586
Cespedes: .303/.402/.541
07-08:
Linares: .308/.438/.536
Cespedes: .284/.342/.552
08-09:
Linares: .325/.430/.588
Cespedes:.323/.411/.601

OPS comparison: Y. Cespedes vs. JC Linares:
05-06: L: .898, C: .1093;
06-07: L: .1053, C: 943;
07-08: L: .974, C: .894;
08-09: L: .1018, C: .1012.

http://www.fangraphs...talents-in-mlb/

[Savin Hillbilly]

Is Bobby V one of those bleeds-Dodger-blue types? I'm wondering if the fact that Repko started in the Dodger system is giving him some kind of special status in Valentine's eyes. Because it's really hard to see what the attraction is otherwise. This is a guy who has had multiple chances to stick at the major league level and has sucked consistently and woefully. At least Linares is an unknown quantity.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Is Bobby V one of those bleeds-Dodger-blue types? I'm wondering if the fact that Repko started in the Dodger system is giving him some kind of special status in Valentine's eyes. Because it's really hard to see what the attraction is otherwise. This is a guy who has had multiple chances to stick at the major league level and has sucked consistently and woefully. At least Linares is an unknown quantity.

I think Repko is playing because he is sadly the best option. Lin has hit 232 / 320 / 296, clearly not ready to contribute. Nava is lousy. Linares has some upside, but really, who knows? He has almost no track record. I suspect the organization is most comfortable with guys like McDonald and Repko for the part time gigs they have available, and want to continue with the younger guys getting more AB's. Certainly can be frustrating, and it is baffling why Linares is in AA. Maybe that tells you what the organization thinks of his future.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Ellsbury's an FA after 2013....do we expect JBJ to be ready Opening Day 2014? High-A to MLB in two years would be pretty quick progress. At age 22 I guess it's not unreasonable to hope for, but that Plan B might have to include a bridge of some sort.

It's not unprecedented.

Ellsbury and Lowrie also started their first full year of pro ball as 22-year olds in the Carolina League in 2006. Both came from big-time college programs, and both could have made the show in the 2nd year after drafting, had not Lowrie gotten injured at Wilmington.

Of course, Pedroia was made the starter in 2007 -- 2 1/2 years after being drafted -- and he was put on an even more advanced timetable through the minors.

It's pretty amazing, and a real tribute to the young high-upside depth in the organization, that JBJ hasn't really cracked the Sox prospect radar. SoxProspects started him this season as #19. But he's a past MVP of the College World Series, a defensive whiz-kid, and his 2009-10 batting line as a Gamecock is better than what Ellsbury did at Oregon State as a 19-20 year old.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Certainly can be frustrating, and it is baffling why Linares is in AA. Maybe that tells you what the organization thinks of his future.

It's not baffling at all -- the Sox want Linares to get more reps defensively at CF by playing every day, but Lin's already at AAA and needs the AB's against advanced pitching.

[xjack]

Just curious, is the level of play in AAA that much better these days than AA?

Looks to me like there are a lot of really good and close to the majors pitching prospects now playing in Double-A: Trevor Bauer, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Skaggs, Taijuan Walker, etc.

Edited by xjack, 20 April 2012 - 10:38 AM.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Linares is a 27-year old in AA whose career OBP was .281 before this season.

You're talking about 110 or so plate appearances.

If his time isn't now, when is it? The man is 27 years old. If we don't think he can play that's one thing but I don't think there's much reason to worry about the impact on his development if he has a chance of being a decent starter right now.

[Pumpsie]

One would think that with either Repko or Lin up with the big club, Linares would get another good look-see in AAA to see whether he's turned a corner. The comparisons with Cespedes are eye-opening, to say the least.

[Plympton91]

I just wanted to join the chorus of "WTF is Linares doing in AA," and that was before I saw those comparisons to Cespedes. Put together his entire line from AA, AAA, and Arizona and you get a player worth throwing out there for a couple weeks, especially when the alternative is Repko or McDonald against a RH pitcher.

[tonyarmasjr]

I think Repko is playing because he is sadly the best option. Lin has hit 232 / 320 / 296, clearly not ready to contribute. Nava is lousy. Linares has some upside, but really, who knows? He has almost no track record. I suspect the organization is most comfortable with guys like McDonald and Repko for the part time gigs they have available, and want to continue with the younger guys getting more AB's. Certainly can be frustrating, and it is baffling why Linares is in AA. Maybe that tells you what the organization thinks of his future.

How do you figure that? Leaving Linares out of it, since xjack put his stats out there:
Repko - 31 yo, Average-Below average in CF
Career in minors: 3492 PA, .274/.336/..434/.771, 2.61 K/BB, 18.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 160/61 SB/CS
Career in AAA: 1681 PA, .290/.358/.463/.821, 2.35 K/BB, 19.0 K%, 8.1 BB%, 71/22 SB/CS
Career in MLB: 777 PA, .225/.295/.347/.642, 3.75 K/BB, 25.1K%, 6.7 BB%, 27/8 SB/CS

Career in MLB: 2999 PA, .249/.325/.327/.653, 1.61 K/BB, 16.3 K%, 10.1 BB%, 92/32 SB/CS - for reference, that's the beloved Nick Punto's career that is a better line than Repko's

Nava - 29 yo, Can't play CF
Career in minors: 1864 PA, .313/.412/.489/.901, 1.25 K/BB, 16.1 K%, 12.9 BB%, 37/13 SB/CS
Career in AAA: 897 PA, .270/.371/.416/.787, 1.47 K/BB, 17.4 K%, 11.8 BB%, 15/6 SB/CS
Career in MLB: 188 PA, .242/.351/.360/.711, 2.42 K/BB, 24.5 K%, 10.1 BB%, 1/1 SB/CS

Lin - 23 yo, Above average-Excellent in CF
Career in minors: 2357 PA, .256/.351/.349/.700, 1.23 K/BB, 13.8 K%, 11.2 BB%, 132/42 SB/CS
Career in AAA: 426 PA, .232/.320/.296/.616, 1.40 K/BB, 13.8 K%, 9.86 BB%, 18/4 SB/CS

If Nava is lousy, so is Repko. Kroeger fits right in with them, too. But Nava's performed better at the ML level and can switch hit (Though Repko doesn't have a huge platoon split, anyway. Kinda hard when the good side is a .659 OPS). And Repko doesn't really appear to be any better in CF than Ross or McDonald. Ross has said (and looked) he's more comfortable in CF, anyway. So, if you're going to just play a bad defensive OF, you may as well play the "better" hitters. Hell, I'd rather see Lars in left than Repko on the field. Another option is to upgrade the defense, and I think Lin in CF (and on the basepaths, even as a PR late) outweighs any marginally better offense from a Repko or Nava. He puts the bat on the ball and can take a walk, two things Repko does not do. I'd even let Iglesias (or Punto) play short and move Aviles into the OF. There, you at least get an upgrade defensively at SS and don't really sacrifice all that much in the OF, since they're all terrible out there. As for the second bolded part, Repko got called up 4 games ago and has played in 3 of them. We're talking about a few weeks now (hopefully) until Crawford comes back. So, if you have to play dreck, at least use the opportunity to try to showcase Lars for a trade or let Lin/Iglesias/Linares get his feet wet. The only thing Repko brings to the table is that he's called a center fielder.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

They are small sample sizes over two seasons, but he hadn't shown any on-base ability that you'd expect for someone that's old for the leagues. He has this year, but he's still a 27-year old in AA with no track record to fall back on. He needs to do this for a lot longer to be considered for a big league call-up.

I don't undersand this line of thinking in the slightest. Do you not realize he's a Cuban defector and not some kind of journeyman? Hopefully, you've taken a look at the Cuban number posted above. The Cuban league is at least AA level, so it's not like he's been playing high school ball all this time.

As for why he's in AA (where I've seen him play twice now, and he's absolutely a man among boys), it's got to be that they don't trust him defensively and want him to just get a ton of reps in the outfield and not ride the shuttle to Fenway like the AAA outfielders tend to do. Maybe it was to light a fire under him, and if so it's worked. Either way, I don't expect him to be here long, but he's a nice little draw to Hadlock, that's for sure.

[Plympton91]

I don't undersand this line of thinking in the slightest. Do you not realize he's a Cuban defector and not some kind of journeyman? Hopefully, you've taken a look at the Cuban number posted above. The Cuban league is at least AA level, so it's not like he's been playing high school ball all this time.

I don't think that's true. I think most people say it's more like A, but the main point of it not being amateur hour is certainly valid.

[pjr]

Anyone know why Linares was taken out of the game after the 1st inning tonight?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone know why Linares was taken out of the game after the 1st inning tonight?

Repko was replaced late in the game and it was mentioned that he was being checked out by the trainers shortly before that. He did hit the wall fairly hard on a catch earlier in the game. Purely speculation here, but perhaps Repko's hurt and headed for the DL and they're going to call up Linares. Or they're calling up Lin and Linares is headed to Pawtucket.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Anyone know why Linares was taken out of the game after the 1st inning tonight?

According to the game thread, he got hurt