75 replies to this topic

[TomRicardo]

WAR does not play as well MVP votyes being MVP voting is similar to BBWAA Hall of Fame voting.

It is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Statistical Awesomness. It is voted on by sportswriters to let in the best baseball narratives. Those who deserve to be talked about. Martinez was simply not as famous as Ortiz.

Also what WAR are you comparing? fWAR? Because you shouldn't. fWAR only started including baserunning numbers in 2002. Edgar Martinez might have been even a worse baserunner than Ortiz.

[smastroyin]

I think the real problem is what PW described. You guys are using this question as a referendum on Edgar Martinez. We all know Edgar Martinez was great. But this isn't the referendum vote on Edgar Martinez, it is a discussion of David Ortiz's merits. I get the DH argument but Edgar is the only "proof" of the DH bias that you guys are espousing so hard.

Edgar Martinez was exceptionally underrated. But David Ortiz is not. He gets MVP votes, he was on the cover of a video game. He has had huge moments on the national stage. In terms of how writers feel about them they are not comparable.

[Toe Nash]

WAR does not play as well MVP votyes being MVP voting is similar to BBWAA Hall of Fame voting.

It is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Statistical Awesomness. It is voted on by sportswriters to let in the best baseball narratives. Those who deserve to be talked about. Martinez was simply not as famous as Ortiz.

Also what WAR are you comparing? fWAR? Because you shouldn't. fWAR only started including baserunning numbers in 2002. Edgar Martinez might have been even a worse baserunner than Ortiz.

Well, I thought we were discussing who deserves to be in, not who the writers think deserves to be in. Since you said Ortiz had a more productive career and all. As i said, I think the writers hold enough of a grudge against DHs that Papi won't get there.

I used bWAR, just the offensive component. Though I can't see the comparison of two bad baserunners making up the difference there.

[Alternate34]

Bernie Williams is absolutely a HOF'er. Consistently one of the best players for more than a decade on a team that won the Division almost every year he played for them and 4 World Championships. Multiple gold gloves in CF and All-Star appearances.

As you said, Jim Rice is in, I'll add Tony Perez to that list. Both Ortiz and Williams blow Jim Rice and Tony Perez out of the water in terms of value; it's not even a close call. In fact, I'd say both Ortiz and Williams might be more deserving than Carl Yastrzemski, and are certainly much more deserving than Paul Molitor, who like Edgar (who I think is very deserving as well), also spent most of the quality years of his career as a DH.

Williams value is underrated and he has a decent Hall of Fame argument. His Gold Gloves might overemphasize his defensive value, but he certainly was excellent offensively for several years at a position where it is tough to get offense.

Ortiz does not blow Rice or Perez out of the water. He appears to because of the inflated offensive numbers of his era. Rice's top 3 season are comparable to Ortiz's when adjusted for era. Perez has a slew of seasons above 5 WAR. I think Ortiz is being vastly overrated here not just because its a Boston board but also because he started so fast. Perhaps he keeps it up, but lots of guys have hot starts. I also think people are putting too much stock in the "got started late" aspect to his career. The voters are generally not sympathetic to those types of arguments unless it was a case of segregation.

[Alternate34]

Alternate, I just wanted to apologize for my tone. I was actually really irritated at phrasing from another post that I didn't specifically address. That said, I still don't like the Martinez comparison. Martinez was criminally underrated by the very people that vote in these things. Is that a specific DH bias or is it because those guys didn't value that offense can be generated from things other than HR and RBI? So Martinez gets a double whammy against him. A lot of guys in the hall make it with a similar skill set, but largely because they have positional advantage to make up the difference. Martinez does not have typical power position numbers. He would probably not have made it as a LF or 1B either unless he had a stellar defensive rep. 3B is underrepresented in Cooperstown so I think he may have gotten in if he had stayed there, but it's hard to say. Despite some bias against the DH, I don't think that was ultimately Martinez's problem in getting HoF votes.

I think I might have jumped to an assumption of response to me anyway, so part of the fault is mine.

While I agree that Edgar isn't the perfect comp, I disagree with the idea that had he had the same number but played 1B or LF that he wouldn't make it. While he doesn't have typical power numbers, Edgar's batting averages are fantastic, with an over .300 batting average and 10 full seasons of an over .300 average. Additionally, while not as important as HR, voters do take into account things like total bases, doubles and slugging average. I don't think he would be a first ballot lock, but he would get in pretty quick.

Edit - Always commenting on the famous Edger Martinez.

Edited by Alternate34, 17 April 2012 - 05:55 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

A player. You have created criteria to accuse me of "splashing tears" (GFY) and now you cannot find one player example to prove your point. I'll save you the time - there is no example that fits your bullshit criteria. There are precisely zero players ELECTED to the HOF with that criteria. No, the old time VC selections do not count.

If you want to hold me to the specific bullet points I mentioned, fine, there's probably no examples that fits players who got elected to the HOF in part because they had two consecutive walkoff hits to fuel the Greatest Comeback of All Time for a team winning the WS for the first time in 86 years. I cede the point - there's no precedent for that.

But the specifics of Ortiz's case aren't the point, and I'm fair sure you're smart enough to know that. The posts that made you flip your shit in what is a fine example of main board decorum posit that popularity and mystique and being part of a 2-time WS winner are enough to overcome the weak statistical case for Ortiz and get him elected. I do not believe this should be or will be the case, but one does not need to search hard to find precedent for that. You mention the best case in your own post (the "most feared hitter of his era!!!!" refrain was a common counter to statistical arguments during Rice's campaign).

For the record, I have absolutely no issue with excessive vitrol in a post responding to a truly horrid and mockable point (or in a game thread, or in P&G). You, however, have a distinct tendency to flip your shit over issues where reasonable people can disagree (you call any HOF case for Ortiz embarassing, twice), and immediately stoop to the lowest semantic level when an argument ensues (hey look, now we're talking about SPECIFIC CRITERIA and accusing me of not being able to come up with examples because I posted a clarification question instead of an answer). Frankly, it's tiring to read.

You have great things to say when you're not actively working to lower the denominator of the debate.

[TomRicardo]

Well, I thought we were discussing who deserves to be in, not who the writers think deserves to be in. Since you said Ortiz had a more productive career and all. As i said, I think the writers hold enough of a grudge against DHs that Papi won't get there.

I used bWAR, just the offensive component. Though I can't see the comparison of two bad baserunners making up the difference there.

With fWAR Edgar is treated as a net neutral runner where Ortiz loses a couple of runs. Martinez was awful the three years he was tracked. Worse than Ortiz.

I absolutely believe Ortiz belongs in the HoF especially over Edgar Martinez. I really don't even think it is a competition between the two when you are speaking about the HoF.

In terms of better career I believe Edgar had a better career. He got on base so much he was able to make up for only hitting over 30 HRs once in the height of the steroid era. What kills him in my view is his poor playoff numbers especially in the series that Seattle lost.

I honestly don't think either should get in without a narrative. I suppose Edgar could play the underrated card but Ortiz simply beasted his way to 2 WS rings.

Edited by TomRicardo, 17 April 2012 - 03:30 PM.

[kieckeredinthehead]

In many ways, this conversation is kind of a combined proxy battle over Jack Morris (postseason heroics) and Edgar Martinez (DH). That is, this would be a very different conversation if both of those guys were in the HoF. We're talking as if they didn't make it, but actually they haven't YET. I would bet they'll both be voted in before their time on the ballot is up, at which point Ortiz becomes a much more likely candidate.

[Plympton91]

Ortiz does not blow Rice or Perez out of the water. He appears to because of the inflated offensive numbers of his era. Rice's top 3 season are comparable to Ortiz's when adjusted for era. Perez has a slew of seasons above 5 WAR.

My argument for Ortiz blowing Rice and Perez out of the water is that Ortiz has 6 seasons comparable to Rice's and Perez's top 3, and a 7th in that ballpark. And so, Ortiz's 4th to 7th best seasons are much better than the 4th through 7th of the other 2. Paul Molitor's best 7 match up almost exactly with Rice's and are somewhat better than Perez, but also pale in comparison to Ortiz.

Ortiz best 7 OPS+-- 171, 161, 158, 154, 145, 144, 137
Rice best 7 OPS+ -- 157, 154, 147, 141, 136, 130, 127
Perez best 7 OPS+ -- 159, 158, 145, 138, 124, 124, 121
Molitor best 7 OPS+ -- 161, 147, 143, 139, 138, 133, 132

If the first two weeks are any indication, Ortiz this year will add an 8th season that is equal to or better than all but the best 2 years for Rice and Perez, and better than all but the best year of Molitor's career.

I think Ortiz is being vastly overrated here not just because its a Boston board but also because he started so fast. Perhaps he keeps it up, but lots of guys have hot starts. I also think people are putting too much stock in the "got started late" aspect to his career. The voters are generally not sympathetic to those types of arguments unless it was a case of segregation.

I partially attribute Ortiz's late start to Tom Kelly's stubborness, certainly not comparable to segregation or even traumatic eye injury, but not exactly rational either. Ortiz spent an entire year destroying AAA in between major league seasons where he posted OPS+ of 111 and 101. In that year, Kelly used Marty Cordova (108 OPS+) as the primary DH, and gave 523 at bats in LF to Chad Allen (82 OPS+).

Edited by Plympton91, 17 April 2012 - 05:38 PM.

[Alternate34]

My argument for Ortiz blowing Rice and Perez out of the water is that Ortiz has 6 seasons comparable to Rice's and Perez's top 3, and a 7th in that ballpark. And so, Ortiz's 4th to 7th best seasons are much better than the 4th through 7th of the other 2. Paul Molitor's best 7 match up almost exactly with Rice's and are somewhat better than Perez, but also pale in comparison to Ortiz.

Ortiz best 7 OPS+-- 171, 161, 158, 154, 145, 144, 137
Rice best 7 OPS+ -- 157, 154, 147, 141, 136, 130, 127
Perez best 7 OPS+ -- 159, 158, 145, 138, 124, 124, 121
Molitor best 7 OPS+ -- 161, 147, 143, 139, 138, 133, 132

If the first two weeks are any indication, Ortiz this year will add an 8th season that is equal to or better than all but the best 2 years for Rice and Perez, and better than all but the best year of Molitor's career.

David Ortiz oWAR from b-ref - 35.1
5 best seasons - 6.0, 5.5, 5.1, 4.3, 3.8

Jim Rice oWAR from b-ref - 39.2
5 best seasons - 6.0, 5.6, 4.9, 4.6, 3.9

Tony Perez oWAR from b-ref - 49.6
5 best seasons - 6.8, 6.0, 5.7, 5.5, 4.7

I use oWAR over OPS+ because OPS+ is equal part OBP and SLG rather than giving OBP more weight. That is something that would favor Ortiz a bit with 4 seasons above .600 in slugging and one season just a smidge below it. oWAR still adjusts for park as well so that isn't an issue.

Ortiz doesn't blow them away. He is closer to Rice, but Rice played a defensive position a little harder to fill than 1B and ranged from good to bad there depending on his age and mobility. Perez's somewhat earlier career makes the adjustment for era a bit larger than the other two. I am less familiar with Tony's defensive reputation. dWAR has him ranging from decent to bad over his career. However, both Rice and Perez get credit over Ortiz for playing a defensive position. I didn't include Molitor because had significant time at harder defensive positions to fill.

I partially attribute Ortiz's late start to Tom Kelly's stubborness, certainly not comparable to segregation or even traumatic eye injury, but not exactly rational either. Ortiz spent an entire year destroying AAA in between major league seasons where he posted OPS+ of 111 and 101. In that year, Kelly used Marty Cordova (108 OPS+) as the primary DH, and gave 523 at bats in LF to Chad Allen (82 OPS+).

I agree that Ortiz was held back irrationally. They hated his pull heavy approach and his unwillingness to "hit behind the runner" from some of the stuff I read. It is not a narrative writers usually consider. I am of mixed feelings in considering it, though I would give some credit for cases like Ortiz's.

[Alternate34]

WAR does not play as well MVP votyes being MVP voting is similar to BBWAA Hall of Fame voting.

It is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Statistical Awesomness. It is voted on by sportswriters to let in the best baseball narratives. Those who deserve to be talked about. Martinez was simply not as famous as Ortiz.

Also what WAR are you comparing? fWAR? Because you shouldn't. fWAR only started including baserunning numbers in 2002. Edgar Martinez might have been even a worse baserunner than Ortiz.

This is a bit of a red herring. While it isn't the Hall of Statistical Awesomeness, statistics are intimately involved in the process. It may not be the statistics that best contribute to scoring and preventing runs, but they are a huge part of all arguments for the Hall of Fame.

Additionally, while Ortiz does better in HRs, generally considered the power statistic, Edgar Martinez does much better in batting average, another hallowed statistic. Batting average has done a lot of the leg work in getting marginal candidates in for a longer period of time. The career .300 average carries a lot of weight. Additionally, I think it will start to carry even more weight in the face of steroids and the HR explosion of the 1990s. There are a lot of writers who are talking about the cheapening of the HR. There isn't a similar chorus talking about the cheapening of batting averages. I understand Ortiz has got a postseason narrative. That certainly is a plus. However, there are certainly 1B's who have got in on the strength of their batting average like Bill Terry and George Sisler. There are also batting average heavy players like Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, and Richie Ashburn. I wouldn't underestimate batting average as a strong argument to writers.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I understand Ortiz has got a postseason narrative.

It's also true that Edgar Martinez has one hell of a postseason narrative, even if it isn't as well remembered. His 1995 LDS vs. the Yankees was epic. Not just the raw stats: 12-for-21 with 6 walks, 3 doubles, 2 HR and 10 RBI--though that's insane enough--but the fact that he played a huge role in the M's comeback from an 0-2 deficit. After the Yankees wisely refused to pitch to him in Game 3 (3 BB), he exploded for 2 HR and 7 RBI in Game 4, and then hit an 11th-inning 2-run walkoff double to end it in game 5. It was basically Papi ALCS 2004 compressed into 5 games.

[HriniakPosterChild]

It's also true that Edgar Martinez has one hell of a postseason narrative, even if it isn't as well remembered. His 1995 LDS vs. the Yankees was epic. Not just the raw stats: 12-for-21 with 6 walks, 3 doubles, 2 HR and 10 RBI--though that's insane enough--but the fact that he played a huge role in the M's comeback from an 0-2 deficit. After the Yankees wisely refused to pitch to him in Game 3 (3 BB), he exploded for 2 HR and 7 RBI in Game 4, and then hit an 11th-inning 2-run walkoff double to end it in game 5. It was basically Papi ALCS 2004 compressed into 5 games.

The reason it's not well-remembered is that they didn't have national broadcasts of the division series games in 1995. It was the first year of the new playoff format, and they were still figuring things out--like how to schedule the home field advantage. The M's had the "advantage" that year of playing the first 2 games in NYC and then the last 3 (must-win) games at home.

But man, that stupid dome could get LOUD!

[xjack]

I agree that electing Rice makes Papi a likely HOFer. The Rice argument was essentially that he was the dominant hitter of his era. Well, the way you measure that sort of thing is via OPS+ and Rice had 4 seasons of 140 OPS+ or better versus 6 for Papi. Throw in the post-season heroics and his popularity among the writers and I think he gets in. Maybe not on the first or second ballot, but he gets in.

[SumnerH]

I agree that electing Rice makes Papi a likely HOFer. The Rice argument was essentially that he was the dominant hitter of his era. Well, the way you measure that sort of thing is via OPS+ and Rice had 4 seasons of 140 OPS+ or better versus 6 for Papi

It was more that he was the "most feared" hitter of his era, and that's more measured through faulty memories, perception of character, and overrating of slugging (home runs in particular) than through OPS+; Dewey had the same OPS+ in his best 4 years as Rice but never got the "feared" tag.

But Papi certainly has that clutch/feared imprimature going for him regardless of where it comes from.

[smastroyin]

Just so you know, oWAR is position adjusted.

I hate using WAR in these arguments as it is, because it is a convenient but ultimately toothless number when talking about HoF chances. But since you keep quoting WAR and oWAR numbers without acknowledging that the Red Sox chose to make David Ortiz a DH (we can argue endlessly about what his injury history would have looked like if he played 1B, if he would have hit as well, been as durable, etc., but in his limited time there he has looked decent). I couldn't quickly find Sean Smith's position adjustments so I don't know how much that hurts Ortiz but replacement level for DH's has been traditionally difficult to calculate appropriately because there are so few that play the position full time.

[Eric Van]

Papi is now at .381 / .460 / .680 over his last 266 PA going back to last August 7 (yes, fun with arbitrary endpoints!). That's a long stretch to be that hot. Is it just luck, or has he made a further adjustment?

Last year Papi went into a huge slump from June 21 to August 6 (.203 / .314 / .373 in 137 PA) and something like that is certain to happen to him again at some point this year. But if we're asking whether he's a better hitter now (that is, since getting over that slump) than before it, we have to exclude the slump. IOW, we want to compare his really good stretch at the start of last year to the similar stretch at the start of this one, except we can see that the end of last year was very much like this start, so we're including it. (For all you people who think that excluding slumps is always evil: if we included it, we would certainly conclude that he's better now than last year. I'm excluding it to make the comparison tougher. He's hot now. He was hot then. Is this hot even hotter?)

The thing that jumps out at you is BABIP:

2003-7: .309
2008-10: .281
early 2011: .318

None of these differences are statistically significant; the drop in 2008-10 has a 1 in 10 chance of being random.

Since August 7, 2011: .407.

That has a 1 in 130 chance of being random when compared just to his 2003-7 baseline. However, a slump like last year's, if it happened now, would bring his BABIP since August 7 down to .343 and that would not be statistically significant. But then we'd expect him to get hot again ... And the longer he can sustain this before slumping, the better that makes things look, too, of course.

My eyes tell me that Papi has made a further adjustment and is hitting the ball with at least a bit more authority than last year, when his emphasis on making contact on pitches everywhere in the zone led to less hard contact versus RHP. He certainly cannot sustain a .381 BA and .407 BABIP, but I think that he can keep the BABIP above the .310 that he sustained in his prime.

Here's a table that compares his fast start to last year and what he's done since last August to his prime and to his 2008-10 struggles. Remember that it's an unfair comparison because we've excluded the slump that intervenes between the last two columns; we'll know better where to include that (and hence how to make a fair comparison) once he gets past this year's inevitable one. (PA and all the rate stats exclude IBB.)

Because it's an unfair comparison, you want to ignore the results (included just for perspective) and just look at the pattern of how K%, BB%, HR / Contact, and BABIP have changed, as a possible indication of changes in approach. For instance, his K rate in this latest hot streak is up quite a bit compared to last year's start, which is consistent with more aggressive swings and harder contact.

Four Papis

	2005-7	2008-10	-6/20/11	8/7/2011-
PA	2021	1692	293	260
BA	.306	.257	.323	.381
OBP	.418	.356	.402	.459
SA	.620	.498	.604	.680
K%	.170	.209	.113	.150
BB%	.142	.115	.106	.108
HRC	.098	.073	.075	.083
BABIP	.310	.281	.318	.407

[Oil Can Dan]

Speaking of adjustments, if his apparently adjustment vs LHP that began in 2011 is real then I'd say he has a very good chance of continuing to put up stellar numbers. I think he's close to HoF material now, but if he can put up another season or two similar to 2011 I think he's a slam dunk from a statistical perspective.

On the non-statistical perspective, I think it warrants mentioning that Papi's been a bit of an ambassador for the game over the past nine or so years, and I think that counts for something in the voters eyes. From a pure 'presence' perspective Papi vs Edgar Martinez is no contest. I think the voters are going to want to vote him in, and so long as the numbers are close enough to warrant it, I think they will.

[twothousandone]

I think in 2013, I'm likely to prefer Ortiz at $14 million (would he ask for more??!!) to Youkilis at $13 million.

[8slim]

I'm not sure this debate comes down to anything more than the fact that he's played all of 14% of his games at 1B in his career. Since these are sportswriters voting, with all their heralded biases, I don't see how that's overcome, even if they all get collective amnesia about his PED involvement.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Speaking of adjustments, if his apparently adjustment vs LHP that began in 2011 is real then I'd say he has a very good chance of continuing to put up stellar numbers. I think he's close to HoF material now, but if he can put up another season or two similar to 2011 I think he's a slam dunk from a statistical perspective.

He's not even within ICBM distance of the Hall right now. If he retires tomorrow, he has zero chance. A DH with <400 HR?

"Another season or two similar to 2011" won't get him there, either. Two more seasons identical to 2011 would leave him at 436 HR, 2084 H, and 1458 RBI. In the post-steroid era those numbers are probably only "Hall of Very Good" even for a position player.

[Al Zarilla]

I'm not sure this debate comes down to anything more than the fact that he's played all of 14% of his games at 1B in his career. Since these are sportswriters voting, with all their heralded biases, I don't see how that's overcome, even if they all get collective amnesia about his PED involvement.

There is one pure placekicker in the pro football HOF and I'd bet another down the road in Adam Vinatieri. That's about as specialty as you can get in sports. So, maybe the DH HOF vacuum gets overcome someday, if not by Papi. Actually the way teams rotate guys through DH these days will there be a dominant one like Edgar or Papi again? I think Papi gets in, but not first ballot. His big game, biggest stage performances put him over the top, as will happen with Schilling.

[Marbleheader]

I place little value on the term 'Hall of Famer'. It meant something to me at one time, but no longer. Papi's place in baseball history will not change significantly if he gets enshrined or not. Did Rice suddenly become a better player to me somehow after getting in? No. I'll say this, his insane run of late game heroics is the most amazing thing I witnessed in Red Sox baseball outside of Pedro J Martinez, and I'll be telling my grandkids about it.

[Plympton91]

I would think that as more and more of the sportswriters voting for the HOF are one who began their career long after Ron Bloomberg retired, the bias against the DH will diminish significantly. And, just as player mobility has increased, the emergence of a national sports media and inter-city mobility will make for fewer NL-only voters who may be the type that would perpetuate the stereotype.

Also, I'm somebody who gives equal weight to longevity and peak; Ortiz will fall short in the counting stats, but as I showed earlier, he's got an extended period of peak offensive production that is among the elites in the game. If he puts up a 130+ OPS this year and next then he's looking at nearly a decade as one of the most feared hitters in the game. That's twice as long as Sandy Kaufax mattered to anyone.

Tack on his sublime postseason performance, and, as TRic has noted a couple times, his relatively high share of MVP votes during his career, and I'd say he's a shoo-in. Moreover, as I said before, any voter who doesn't consider David Ortiz to be a Hall of Famer, doesn't actually understand what they're voting for.

[bd11]

Tack on his sublime postseason performance, and, as TRic has noted a couple times, his relatively high share of MVP votes during his career, and I'd say he's a shoo-in. Moreover, as I said before, any voter who doesn't consider David Ortiz to be a Hall of Famer, doesn't actually understand what they're voting for.

This post is evidence of sosh jumping the shark.

[pjheff]

This post is evidence of sosh jumping the shark.

He is a DH who tested positive for PED's. Each issue is problematic. Combined, the two are fatal.