75 replies to this topic

[Jim Lonborg]

With his hot start this year Ortiz has shown that he is still one of the top hitters in Baseball. And we have now reached a late enough point in his career that we have a pretty good overview of what he has accomplished. That being said do we think he has put himself over the top to be considered for the Hall? I think if he can put up another stellar season this year it puts him over the top. Obvously come voting time the PED issue will come up, but given all that he has accomplished I think he will be deserving of enshrinement.

[shepard50]

Based on the all-time leaderboard, yes.

I am mixing traditional and advanced statistics because that's what the voters do (all ranks are MLB all-time):

48th in OPS
62nd in HRs
32nd for SLG
113th fro RBI
137th for Runs Created
39th for ABs per HR
71st for WPA

I'm guessing the clutch comebacks he put on his back in the historic 2004 campaign balance the steroid allegations.

[SumnerH]

He's above HoF standards on 3 of the 4 baseball-reference statistical measures, and close on the 4th. On top of that, the 2004 story is stellar; it's better than the Jack Morris story by far, and his stats are far superior. The only reason I wouldn't say he's a lock is because he's a DH, and the voters have frowned on pure DHs. But when ESPN or someone strings together the 2004 highlight reel and plays it over the stats, I think it's tough to see the voters keeping him out.

[OttoC]

As a DH, I think Edgar Martinez has a stronger case, right now.

[CSteinhardt]

No. It's a marginal case at best as a DH, but then you have to add in a positive steroid test.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think it's a long shot. If he retired tomorrow, no way. In the steroid generation (of which, as CSteinhardt points out, he is sadly a card-carrying member), even 500 HR is no guarantee of anything, and Papi doesn't have 400 yet. He's not only a DH; he's not only a steroid-tainted DH; he's a steroid-tainted DH whose peak years started too late for him to accumulate the kinds of counting stats that might force voters' hands. He probably won't make 450 HR or 1500 RBI till 2014, and it's not a lock that he'll get to either mark at his age. 500 HR looks almost out of reach: that's 121 from where he is, which means that even if he stays on a 30-HR/year pace he wouldn't get there till the end of 2015 or even early 2016, when he'd be 40.

So his numbers probably won't be quite enough, especially as a DH. And as shephard50 notes, the clutch heroics and the PED stuff will probably balance each other out. I wouldn't say he has no chance, but I wouldn't say he has a good chance either.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 17 April 2012 - 08:48 AM.

[kneemoe]

People point out all the time that its the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Excellence... to that end all one needs to look at is 2004.
Yeah, he's a DH, but his stats are probably good enough to land him there anyway. When you add the story book tale of 2004 I can't imagine him not making it in.

[Toe Nash]

Edgar Martinez has better stats (66.9 b-r oWAR to Papi's 35.1, and 5 peak seasons of 6+ oWAR to Papi's one) and played more in the field (592 G to 250 g) and he's not garnered more than 36% of the vote. He also doesn't have any steroid problems. Ortiz's postseasons and other intangibles don't make up that gap.

Can he get in? He has a small chance if he can put together 2-3 more good-great seasons and voters completely change their mind on DHs and steroid-"users." But probably not.

Would I vote for him? I'd vote for Edgar today, and I'm a huge Papi fan but no, I don't think I'd vote for him. Just not enough great seasons / too late of a start.

[DLew On Roids]

I couldn't not vote for him if I had a ballot in my hand, but I don't think he makes it on pure merit. I expect he'll get in on whatever version of the Veterans Committee is around in 2045. Old-timers like Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols will talk about how he was a terror and they'll want to give him a bro hug on the stage. It will be one of the more entertaining induction ceremonies of that decade.

[wutang112878]

I dont think he gets in. I have a feeling the voters look at the steroids era and see the stats of the DHs at the time, and what happened after testing, and really put less value on the position than they do now. I think Edgar is going to have a tough time getting in, and I thought he was very, very good and he doesnt have the PED issue hanging over his head. Another example is McGwire, he put up ridiculous OPS numbers for a long period of time, but it seems the PED stuff is hurting his candidacy as well. I think its a bit unfair, but I dont see Ortiz getting in.

[Cumberland Blues]

Given the lack of support for Edgar - who was better - I can't see Papi getting in. Frank Thomas & Edgar should be the first two DH's in - pretty big gap down to Papi from there. I'd guess he needs 3 more years as good as last year to even get a sniff.

[Plympton91]

I expect at least another 2 850+ OPS seasons after this one, given that he has been a terror since about June 1 2010 and is continuing to show the ability to hit lefthanders at an accelerated clip even after the league had a full offseason to adjust to his new approach. So, I think the counting stats will get him there. He should finish in the top 50 in HRs, despite losing multiple potential early years to the stubborness of the Twins organization. The "steriods issue" is an anonymous test leaked under mysterious circumstances that he denies and that didn't result in a suspension. Saying that will overshadow his reputation as one of the greatest clutch hitters of all time, including 2 game winners in the greatest comeback in sports history, is being too jaded.

I am someone for whom the term "Hall of FAME" is very operative. As such, to me, David Ortiz is a first ballot Hall of Famer right now. IMHO, anybody who's voting based on long lists of comparative statistics doesn't get the point of the voting.

[drleather2001]

In many ways, Ortiz might end up being the reverse Jim Rice.

My guess is that we're looking at a guy who will retire sometime around 2015 with a Batting Average of .280, an OBP of .370, a SLG of about .540 and about 460 HR.

Those numbers are borderline. If he gets in, it will be because he will be seen as a great "ambassador for the game" or some such, due to his oversized personality. Nobody outside ot NY dislikes Ortiz, even with the steroid issues, enough to use that as the determinative factor.

I think he gets in, but it won't be until he's been on the ballot for at least 4 or 5 years.

Edited by drleather2001, 17 April 2012 - 10:41 AM.

[Beomoose]

He's in and there's not much question about it if I'm voting. But I can't shake the feeling that he'll get shafted by anti-DH writers.

[smastroyin]

The problem with the comparison to Martinez is that Martinez did not hit HR at a pace that is enough to get people to take notice. This is a huge DH bias against him. If he had stuck at 3B he would be in already I think. As a DH he did not rack up traditional counting stats. Ortiz already has him by over 70 HR and 200 RBI and is within easy striking distance on 2B. Martinez was better I agree but not in ways that matter to the guys voting 3 years ago. Ortiz will be on the ballot when there has been more turnover in the BBWAA I think and some younger guys are voting. Bad luck for Edgar that his on base skills are probably still not really valued since he didn't have gaudy hit numbers either. If Edgar had turned 500 of his walks into singles he would be in. etc.

If Ortiz accumulates another 100 HR and 300 RBI while being otherwise useful (it will take him playing two more years after this at useful rates) then he will look really good compared to his contemporaries. However, it should be noted that one reason for that is most of the contemporaries petered out between age 36 and 38, which is where Ortiz is now. But, Ortiz didn't really start until he was 26 and as a DH he has a little less wear on the body. If he turns that into 4 more useful years he will be right at 500 HR and 1800 RBI. If he gets there then I see no way he doesn't make it.

The team can also help him, another big postseason and that might overcome the other shortcomings. I think he would be in already if he had repeated his 2007 postseason in 2008 (I think that would have given the Red Sox the trophy that year). Accumulating enough post-season success is a big help.

The real question is the general one of how players are valued in this era, which we don't really know yet.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree with smastroyin that he will be seen as a better candidate than Martinez by many voters, both because of the HR and because of his enormous personality.

One other item that might work in his favor is that even though he's PED-tainted, it's in the least damaging possible way. He was one of a long list of implicated players that came out when the issue had already begun to lose some of its media currency. We're not talking about suspensions or Congressional testimony here. It'll hurt him, but it won't hurt him the way it's hurt McGwire or Palmeiro or Clemens, or even the way it will hurt Manny when the time comes.

BTW, there's absolutely no way he makes 1800 RBI--he's got a very good chance at 1500, and an outside chance at 1600, but that's about as far as he's going to get, I think. Right now he's at 1276. He has averaged about 80 RBI/year over the past four years. Even if he can keep that pace up for another four years, that puts him at just under 1600 after his age-39 season.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 17 April 2012 - 11:15 AM.

[soxfan121]

I am someone for whom the term "Hall of FAME" is very operative. As such, to me, David Ortiz is a first ballot Hall of Famer right now. IMHO, anybody who's voting based on long lists of comparative statistics doesn't get the point of the voting.

Red Sox Hall of Fame? Absolutely, no question. Put the number up on the facade and have a day. A pivotal, important and beloved member of the hometown team.

Baseball Hall of Fame? Not even close. It's rather embarrassing to even have this on the main board, let alone to have people I think of as "baseball smart" chucking their intellect and experience to the side and advocating Ortiz as a Baseball Hall of Famer. Are you high?!

See, this is the consequence of electing guys like Jim Rice - it encourages people to lower the standards, to look for the exceptions, to re-define what greatness is and what it means. I love David Ortiz. He is one of the most important players in Red Sox history and a wonderful servant to the team, the fans, the community and to baseball.

But National Baseball Hall of Famer? Not even close. Hall of Very Good. Hall of Very Famous. But not one of the elite players to have ever taken the field. Lots of guys have great decades and don't get into the HOF. Ortiz has had a very good decade and the team won. That's an accomplishment and he should be remembered fondly. But this is a rather embarrassing HOMER discussion. Is Bernie Williams a HOF'er? Andy Pettitte? Of course not.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I think Edgar should be in, and I think Ortiz should be in. However given the current voting structure (which is beyond awful), I don't see either guy getting in unless it's by the Veteran's Committee.

[Alternate34]

I have no idea how one can come to the conclusion that he is likely to get in with the voters as currently constituted. They do not like DHs. Edgar Martinez is much better than Ortiz and is having a lot of trouble getting traction. There is a rational reason for this. His offensive stats are the only thing that recommends him. It makes comparisons to players that are not DHs fairly irrelevant as Ortiz adds zero value with his fielding. This distorts even WAR comparisons, the reason being that while measuring a player from the baseline of the replacement player is generally the best way, it is not the only relevant way to measure them. Comparing DHs to position players is a reason to use another mode of comparison because even if a player is a bad defender, they are still adding a value above zero by playing the field. Perhaps other players can then play more important positions. For example, having a bad defensive LF allows one to shift an inferior offensive but good defensive outfielder to one of the more difficult defensive OF positions. While normally the value of a warm body is dubious, in DH discussion it becomes relevant.

I love David Ortiz. If he continues to perform at this level or a close enough level for the next few seasons, then I think he should be in the Hall of Fame, but I don't think he will be in the Hall of Fame.

[JimBoSox9]

Red Sox Hall of Fame? Absolutely, no question. Put the number up on the facade and have a day. A pivotal, important and beloved member of the hometown team.

Baseball Hall of Fame? Not even close. It's rather embarrassing to even have this on the main board, let alone to have people I think of as "baseball smart" chucking their intellect and experience to the side and advocating Ortiz as a Baseball Hall of Famer. Are you high?!

See, this is the consequence of electing guys like Jim Rice - it encourages people to lower the standards, to look for the exceptions, to re-define what greatness is and what it means. I love David Ortiz. He is one of the most important players in Red Sox history and a wonderful servant to the team, the fans, the community and to baseball.

But National Baseball Hall of Famer? Not even close. Hall of Very Good. Hall of Very Famous. But not one of the elite players to have ever taken the field. Lots of guys have great decades and don't get into the HOF. Ortiz has had a very good decade and the team won. That's an accomplishment and he should be remembered fondly. But this is a rather embarrassing HOMER discussion. Is Bernie Williams a HOF'er? Andy Pettitte? Of course not.

Is it hard to type with the tears of rage splashing on your keyboard? I don't think anyone is saying that, on bare statistical merits, Ortiz is in the HOF. I think that reasonable, baseball-smart people can hold the opinion that if you take his numbers, his personality, his clutch reputation, and the uniqueness of being one of the faces of a historic team, that's enough of a push to garner enough votes to get over the hump. I tend to disagree, because the 5-year wait does a credible job of neutralizing those ephemeral factors and there are enough voters out there who don't care for the DH or the Red Sox, but I can't say someone's crazy for thinking it.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 17 April 2012 - 11:28 AM.

[soxfan121]

I think that reasonable, baseball-smart people can hold the opinion that if you take his numbers, his personality, his clutch reputation, and the uniqueness of being one of the faces of a historic team, that's enough of a push to garner enough votes to get over the hump.

Please cite one example of a player being elected to the HOF on this basis.

Edited by soxfan121, 17 April 2012 - 11:31 AM.

[JimBoSox9]

Please cite one example of this.

Am I being asked to cite an example of a poster taking this stance, an example of someone getting into the HOF for factors outside their career numbers, or an example of uniqueness?

[soxfan121]

I think that reasonable, baseball-smart people can hold the opinion that if you take his numbers, his personality, his clutch reputation, and the uniqueness of being one of the faces of a historic team, that's enough of a push to garner enough votes to get over the hump.

Am I being asked to cite an example of a poster taking this stance, an example of someone getting into the HOF for factors outside their career numbers, or an example of uniqueness?

A player. You have created criteria to accuse me of "splashing tears" (GFY) and now you cannot find one player example to prove your point. I'll save you the time - there is no example that fits your bullshit criteria. There are precisely zero players ELECTED to the HOF with that criteria. No, the old time VC selections do not count.

[Phil Plantier]

A momentary glance at Baseball Reference shows one similar player in the Hall of Fame, and not meeting the criteria in three of the four Hall of Fame metrics. He's 566th all time in bWAR. So he's short of entry standards (neutralizing the negative DH and steroid factors). His performance at this age is just as likely to crater as continue.

Making the pro-HoF argument relies on Mystique and Aura to an extreme degree.

[Alternate34]

The problem with the comparison to Martinez is that Martinez did not hit HR at a pace that is enough to get people to take notice. This is a huge DH bias against him. If he had stuck at 3B he would be in already I think. As a DH he did not rack up traditional counting stats. Ortiz already has him by over 70 HR and 200 RBI and is within easy striking distance on 2B. Martinez was better I agree but not in ways that matter to the guys voting 3 years ago. Ortiz will be on the ballot when there has been more turnover in the BBWAA I think and some younger guys are voting. Bad luck for Edgar that his on base skills are probably still not really valued since he didn't have gaudy hit numbers either. If Edgar had turned 500 of his walks into singles he would be in. etc.

If Ortiz accumulates another 100 HR and 300 RBI while being otherwise useful (it will take him playing two more years after this at useful rates) then he will look really good compared to his contemporaries. However, it should be noted that one reason for that is most of the contemporaries petered out between age 36 and 38, which is where Ortiz is now. But, Ortiz didn't really start until he was 26 and as a DH he has a little less wear on the body. If he turns that into 4 more useful years he will be right at 500 HR and 1800 RBI. If he gets there then I see no way he doesn't make it.

The team can also help him, another big postseason and that might overcome the other shortcomings. I think he would be in already if he had repeated his 2007 postseason in 2008 (I think that would have given the Red Sox the trophy that year). Accumulating enough post-season success is a big help.

The real question is the general one of how players are valued in this era, which we don't really know yet.

The way he doesn't get in with 500 HRs and 1800 RBIs is that he is a DH. I find it perplexing that you can't see how that would bar him from getting in. I am not saying it is correct, but there are enough writers that are dubious of DHs to allow this to happen. He has zero defensive value for these writers. Even a guy like Kingman played defensive positions, albeit shittily with constant questions about his effort.

My tone is probably coming off as more strident than I intend. Counting stats that look great at other positions could get him in, but I see too many unpredictable elements involved to be able to assert what is bolded above. Those elements have been listed, but I'll catalogue them again:

(1) Writers have little precedent for DHs making prediction a difficult exercise.
(2) What precedent exists does not favor Ortiz. Edgar Martinez is better than Ortiz and they haven't let him in. While Martinez does not have the HR numbers of Ortiz, Ortiz does not have the doubles and batting average of Martinez. Molitor could be considered positive precedent, but when he played, it was at more important defensive positions. He also has a high average which voters love.
(3) Ortiz is dogged by steroids. How voters will deal with that is unpredictable.
(4) Some of Ortiz's numbers come from an era where offense was big. That so many players now have 500 HRs has diluted that counting stat. I think that will continue and we will have several 500 HR hitters not get into the Hall of Fame.

These reason interact with each other to make prediction even more difficult. HR hitting steroids users seem to be the major concern of writers. That describes Ortiz. Offensive inflation is often blamed to some degree on the DH. Unfortunately, Ortiz is a DH. The DH position may function as a magnifier of voter prejudice against HR hitters and steroids users of the era. It is hard to know. I suspect it will and that Ortiz has no chance with the writers. However, I also suspect that the writers will be really stingy in general, causing a reaction by the Veteran's committee to be less stingy. This would generally follow the pattern of Hall of Fame voting. A less stingy Veteran's Committee is also unpredictable however. Those old players could also hate DHs and instead load up on light hitting infielders and pitchers because they perceive them as getting shafted.

[smastroyin]

Big counting stats count no matter the position. There are very few full-time DH's so we have literally no sample size to deal with. I have already pointed out why the Edgar comparison is specious and actually outright stupid. Seattle never won anything, Edgar didn't accumulate counting stats at a rate similar to other 1B or corner OF. He walked a lot and hit a bunch of 2B (PS barring injury Ortiz will pass him this year in that as well). Where I agree is that we don't have a large idea of how, long-term, writers are going to value this entire era.

But your supposition seems to come down to Edgar Martinez is the only DH worthy of the HoF and he's not in, so no other DH will get in. Maybe you're right, but I'd put up pretty healthy odds that if a) Ortiz hits 500 HR, and b) no more actual damning steroid evidence against him comes out (so far he is implicated during a time when a bunch of other guys were doing it, has a legit claim he didn't do it "on purpose", hasn't actually ever been suspended or had any discipline of any kind of MLB about it, etc., and perhaps most importantly, has accumulated most of his numbers after new testing came into place, new testing which has caught other guys).

There are still only 25 players with 500 HR. Only McGwire is the only eligible guy not in the HoF. Manny may join that list because of his recent foibles but we'll have to wait and see. I think Frank Thomas gets in, maybe I'm wrong about that, but it would be a true shame if he didn't. Thome is a lock. Pujols and Cabrera are the only active players with a definitive better shot to cross it. I don't see the same amount of dilution you do, but YMMV. Regardless, the point is that overall Ortiz actually compares pretty favorably to his peers if he accumulates for another 2-3 years.

[drleather2001]

Please cite one example of a player being elected to the HOF on this basis.

I would posit Phil Rizzuto.

EDIT: nevermind, I see now the "no VC" caveat.

Edited by drleather2001, 17 April 2012 - 12:28 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Please cite one example of a player being elected to the HOF on this basis.

Arguably, this guy

This guy, too

EDIT: And drleather's nominee has merit as well.

[Alternate34]

Big counting stats count no matter the position. There are very few full-time DH's so we have literally no sample size to deal with. I have already pointed out why the Edgar comparison is specious and actually outright stupid. Seattle never won anything, Edgar didn't accumulate counting stats at a rate similar to other 1B or corner OF. He walked a lot and hit a bunch of 2B (PS barring injury Ortiz will pass him this year in that as well). Where I agree is that we don't have a large idea of how, long-term, writers are going to value this entire era.

But your supposition seems to come down to Edgar Martinez is the only DH worthy of the HoF and he's not in, so no other DH will get in. Maybe you're right, but I'd put up pretty healthy odds that if a) Ortiz hits 500 HR, and b) no more actual damning steroid evidence against him comes out (so far he is implicated during a time when a bunch of other guys were doing it, has a legit claim he didn't do it "on purpose", hasn't actually ever been suspended or had any discipline of any kind of MLB about it, etc., and perhaps most importantly, has accumulated most of his numbers after new testing came into place, new testing which has caught other guys).

There are still only 25 players with 500 HR. Only McGwire is the only eligible guy not in the HoF. Manny may join that list because of his recent foibles but we'll have to wait and see. I think Frank Thomas gets in, maybe I'm wrong about that, but it would be a true shame if he didn't. Thome is a lock. Pujols and Cabrera are the only active players with a definitive better shot to cross it. I don't see the same amount of dilution you do, but YMMV. Regardless, the point is that overall Ortiz actually compares pretty favorably if he accumulates for another 2-3 years.

McGwire isn't the only guy. Palmeiro is also not in and eligible and is likely not to get in and he also has 3000 hits which is greater lock than 500 HRs. He also won a Gold Glove while not even playing 1B. Palmeiro is particularly instructive as to all of the reasons listed above aside from the DH problem.

And we really don't know if big counting stats count no matter the position. We both agree that there is no standard for DHs, but you seem to think the writers will agree that the Martinez example is specious. I think that is naive. The writers constantly make specious comparisons when it suits them. The DH argument allows it to suit them. Additionally, big counting stats are always discounted the further down the defensive spectrum you go. The DH position is a zero on that spectrum. This is true of the championship stat as well. Catchers and shortstops get more credit than big hitters do for championships.

And characterizing my supposition that Martinez is the only DH, therefore Ortiz doesn't make it, is willfully blind reductionism. The offensive context changing counting stat standards, the steroid use, the general disdain of DHs in general are all reasons mentioned that do not boil down to Martinez is not, therefore Ortiz won't be in.

[Toe Nash]

Regardless, the point is that overall Ortiz actually compares pretty favorably to his peers if he accumulates for another 2-3 years.

Wait, how sure are we Papi's going to get to 500 HR? He has 379 right now and hasn't hit more than 32 in a season since 2007. At 30 a season we're looking at 4 more years, and expecting him to hit 30 in his ages 38 and 39 seasons is a stretch.

I think he most likely ends up with 450-475, which leaves him around guys like Carlos Delgado and Fred McGriff. In this era, at DH, I don't see it.

Edited by Toe Nash, 17 April 2012 - 12:24 PM.

[soxfan121]

I would posit Phil Rizzuto.

OK, we'll put Ortiz in the baseball Hall of Fame after he moves into the broadcasting booth for half-a-century after his career ends. Elected in 1994 by the Veteran's Committee.

Arguably, this guy

This guy, too

Both of these guys ended their careers with injuries and/or unique circumstances.

Puckett's career was ended early and he had a stronger resume at that point that Ortiz does at a similar point in his career. He also played a "real" position, was unquestionably the best player on the championship teams (and is anyone claiming Ortiz was the best Red Sox on the 2004 or 2007 rosters?) and had several awards to bolster his resume.

Dean ... I guess. Another guy who got in after a long broadcasting career and a lackluster resume. Frankly, Dean's numbers are so underwhelming that the Gashouse Gang got him in (during the Frisch VC years, though I don't think Dean was a VC selection). In any case...would a pitcher with 150 wins get a sniff these days? I think not...but you're right...it's arguable.

The real strong case to be made is Tony Perez, long considered the "worst" player elected to the HOF (non-Frisch VC selections). He fits almost all the criteria set forth above...except for the length of career. And ultimately, doing what Perez did for 20+ years is harder to do than than what Ortiz has done in 10+. \

Ortiz does not have the numbers, the longevity, the broadcasting career, or the media narrative of the Gashouse Gang to propel him to the HOF.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Also, here's something to chew on:

Willie Stargell's numbers after his age-35 season
David Ortiz' numbers after his age-35 season

As many of you would point out, Stargell's slash numbers were accumulated in a much lower-offense era, and therefore his OPS+ at the same stage is significantly better (150 to 136). But the raw slash numbers and the key counting numbers are quite similar, with most of the differences weighing in Papi's favor.

If Stargell had had a couple of mediocre seasons after this point and then retired, I doubt he would be in the HoF.

He is in the Hall because of this....

and even more so, this.....

...both of which are things that Ortiz could still match. Not likely, but not impossible either.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Big counting stats count no matter the position. There are very few full-time DH's so we have literally no sample size to deal with. I have already pointed out why the Edgar comparison is specious and actually outright stupid. Seattle never won anything, Edgar didn't accumulate counting stats at a rate similar to other 1B or corner OF. He walked a lot and hit a bunch of 2B (PS barring injury Ortiz will pass him this year in that as well). Where I agree is that we don't have a large idea of how, long-term, writers are going to value this entire era.

Right. The problem with the Martinez comparison is that Martinez should be in, in fact he should be in by a fairly comfortable margin, and the reasons he isn't in have to do with mostly irrational biases (he played on a small market team, he had few memorable post-season moments and he produced in ways that weren't sufficiently respected by traditional baseball stats). We shouldn't let a bad decision set a bad precedent. By WAR I count only five HOF eligible players above Martinez not in, and two of them are Jeff Bagwell and Pete Rose.

Having said that, you'd have a hard time making the case for Ortiz based on WAR, where he currently is tied for #566. The problem is that replacement level DHs produce. In his vicinity are such non-entities as Wally Joyner, Tom Gordon and Bartolo Colon. I think he'd have to add another 10-12 WAR to put him close enough to the margins on the statistical merits to get him in on post-season theatrics.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 17 April 2012 - 12:54 PM.

[SumnerH]

Ortiz already has his "Stargell in 1979" narrative; even outside of Red Sox circles, the 2004 ALCS is considered one of the greatest moments in baseball history, and Big Papi's clutch hitting all postseason as the main driver.

[Bergs]

I don't think anyone's mentioned Ortiz' 5 consecutive top-5's in MVP voting (5,4,3,2,4 in 2003-2007). By way of comparison, E. Martinez (third in '95) and Palmiero (fifth in '99) had 1 top-5 finish each. Apart from being a pretty good proxy for era-specific offensive dominance, this might also carry over into the BWAA members' perceptions of Papi when the time comes. If he puts in 3 more solid years of counting stats, I could see him getting in either on the 3rd-plus ballot or via the VC...which is not to say I think he SHOULD get in, but to opine that it isn't batshit-crazy to imagine the possibility.

[Plympton91]

But this is a rather embarrassing HOMER discussion. Is Bernie Williams a HOF'er? Andy Pettitte? Of course not.

Bernie Williams is absolutely a HOF'er. Consistently one of the best players for more than a decade on a team that won the Division almost every year he played for them and 4 World Championships. Multiple gold gloves in CF and All-Star appearances.

As you said, Jim Rice is in, I'll add Tony Perez to that list. Both Ortiz and Williams blow Jim Rice and Tony Perez out of the water in terms of value; it's not even a close call. In fact, I'd say both Ortiz and Williams might be more deserving than Carl Yastrzemski, and are certainly much more deserving than Paul Molitor, who like Edgar (who I think is very deserving as well), also spent most of the quality years of his career as a DH.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Paul Molitor, who like Edgar (who I think is very deserving as well), also spent most of the quality years of his career as a DH.

I keep seeing people say this. It's not true. He was primarily a 2B or 3B for the first 13 years of his career, during which he totaled 1540 games and 6990 PA. He did not have a season with more games at DH than at a position until age 34. From that point on, he was primarily a DH for 8 years totaling 1143 games and 5477 PA.

And you can't say that the DH years were better "quality"; only 3 of his top 10 years in oWAR were age 34 or beyond.

[bakahump]

I agree with those of you who think Papi will not get into the HOF. And I am ok with that. I dont need one of the top 2 or 3 players on my team to be in the HOF to be happy. Its also pretty well established that If I where emperor for the day I would drastically cull the HOF to represent the elite of the elite.

So no I dont think he would or should make it but its not because of DH Bias.

What I do find interesting is the DH Bias. Does anyone think that had the "DH" position not existed that David Ortiz or Emart would have been out of baseball due to thier poor fielding? Ridiculous. They would have been some butchering 1b that every team in the league would have loved to have batting 3rd or 4th on their team. The bias that "somehow these guys are not quite good enough because they are not real players" is idiotic.

Edited by bakahump, 17 April 2012 - 01:32 PM.

[Super Nomario]

I am someone for whom the term "Hall of FAME" is very operative. As such, to me, David Ortiz is a first ballot Hall of Famer right now. IMHO, anybody who's voting based on long lists of comparative statistics doesn't get the point of the voting.

The voting guidelines say nothing about fame:

5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Certainly a valid argument can be made that Ortiz lives up to Hall of Fame standards based on those criteria, but the fact that he's famous doesn't have anything to do with it. The phrase "Hall of Fame" was a colloquialism prior to the establishment of the institution, and historically the meaning has more to do with conferral of fame rather than reflection of fame.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Right. When the Munchkins told Dorothy she would "be a bust in the Hall of Fame," they were saying they would make her famous for her accomplishments (landing a house on a wicked witch has to be the all-time best WPA for a single tornado).

[TomRicardo]

Given the lack of support for Edgar - who was better - I can't see Papi getting in. Frank Thomas & Edgar should be the first two DH's in - pretty big gap down to Papi from there. I'd guess he needs 3 more years as good as last year to even get a sniff.

Edgar had a longer career but not a more productive career. Only once was Edgar top five for MVP vote and ended his career with 1.01 combined MVP point share. Ortiz was top 5 for MVP for five years and has 2.49 combined share.

Edgar has less HRs and less than 500 more hits. They both have the same number of Silver Sluggers and All Star appearances.

I think Ortiz has a much better case than Edgar. Ortiz's peak he was a top ten hitter over five years and top 3 hitter for 3.

[smastroyin]

Alternate, I just wanted to apologize for my tone. I was actually really irritated at phrasing from another post that I didn't specifically address.

That said, I still don't like the Martinez comparison. Martinez was criminally underrated by the very people that vote in these things. Is that a specific DH bias or is it because those guys didn't value that offense can be generated from things other than HR and RBI? So Martinez gets a double whammy against him. A lot of guys in the hall make it with a similar skill set, but largely because they have positional advantage to make up the difference. Martinez does not have typical power position numbers. He would probably not have made it as a LF or 1B either unless he had a stellar defensive rep. 3B is underrepresented in Cooperstown so I think he may have gotten in if he had stayed there, but it's hard to say. Despite some bias against the DH, I don't think that was ultimately Martinez's problem in getting HoF votes.

[TomRicardo]

Dave Parker and Jeff Bagwell are the only two eliglible players with more MVP combined vote share that aren't in the Hall.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think he most likely ends up with 450-475, which leaves him around guys like Carlos Delgado and Fred McGriff. In this era, at DH, I don't see it.

If Delgado or McGriff had Ortiz post-season heroics, I think they'd be in. In the same way I expect Schilling to make it, and Kevin Brown to not. Ortiz is a character, which doesn't hurt (as does playing for the Sox). Can you remember any great Delgado or McGriff moments?

[Bergs]

If Delgado or McGriff had Ortiz post-season heroics, I think they'd be in. In the same way I expect Schilling to make it, and Kevin Brown to not. Ortiz is a character, which doesn't hurt (as does playing for the Sox). Can you remember any great Delgado or McGriff moments?

His rookie year, he just DESTROYED some balls in Toronto...off the restaurant facade. That's all I've got.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

FWIW, if McGriff had stayed with Atlanta from 1998-2002, I think he would be in the HOF. Hell, maybe even if Leyritz doesn't take Wohlers deep in 1996. Back-to-back WS wins is a pretty compelling narrative, and he was a beast in both postseasons.

Generally not a good resume-builder to have 5 seasons putting up strong numbers while the team loses 90+ each year.

[soxfan121]

Ortiz already has his "Stargell in 1979" narrative; even outside of Red Sox circles, the 2004 ALCS is considered one of the greatest moments in baseball history, and Big Papi's clutch hitting all postseason as the main driver.

Unfortunately for Ortiz, another player is going to hijack the 2004 ALCS for his own candidacy and he'll have ESPN to help him. By the time Ortiz is eligible, the HOF voters will have re-visited the 2004 ALCS at least three times.

And signature post-season moments have not helped Jack Morris.

Bernie Williams is absolutely a HOF'er. Consistently one of the best players for more than a decade on a team that won the Division almost every year he played for them and 4 World Championships. Multiple gold gloves in CF and All-Star appearances.

As you said, Jim Rice is in, I'll add Tony Perez to that list. Both Ortiz and Williams blow Jim Rice and Tony Perez out of the water in terms of value; it's not even a close call.

This is the problem - because Ortiz & Williams played in a better offensive era their numbers will "blow" guys who should not have made the HOF in the first place (Rice, Perez) "out of the water". To me, this is two wrongs do not make a right territory. Jim Rice as a HOF complicates and cheapens the HOF - I said this before he was elected. Now the threshold is "one great decade" and that's never been the standard, IMO.

Like I said - Ortiz is a first-ballot Red Sox HOF'er. He should get the number on the facade and should be celebrated as one of the greatest players in club history. Maybe he even finishes up as the most beloved Red Sox player since Pesky and takes over that role for the club. He's not great enough to be a National Baseball HOF'er - he wasn't great enough for long enough.

And the idea that Bernie fucking Williams is a HOF'er is just ludacrisp. A better case can be made for Pettitte (although I ain't buying on that either). If Bernie Williams should be in, then Jimmy Wynn should have a wing named after him.

[loshjott]

If Delgado or McGriff had Ortiz post-season heroics, I think they'd be in. In the same way I expect Schilling to make it, and Kevin Brown to not. Ortiz is a character, which doesn't hurt (as does playing for the Sox). Can you remember any great Delgado or McGriff moments?

Didn't Delgado refuse to stand for the National Anthem? That'll get him some votes.

[Toe Nash]

Edgar had a longer career but not a more productive career. Only once was Edgar top five for MVP vote and ended his career with 1.01 combined MVP point share. Ortiz was top 5 for MVP for five years and has 2.49 combined share.

Edgar has less HRs and less than 500 more hits. They both have the same number of Silver Sluggers and All Star appearances.

I think Ortiz has a much better case than Edgar. Ortiz's peak he was a top ten hitter over five years and top 3 hitter for 3.

Did you see the WAR numbers I posted above? Edgar nearly DOUBLES Papi's WAR figure and was much better at his peak.

Adjusted for era and home parks, Edgar was by far the better hitter. He wasn't recognized as such because he mostly played on a crummy team and he hit doubles instead of homers. But he got on base more and their career slugging % are comparable. Edgar was top 10 in offensive WAR 7 times and top 3 3 times (Just one of those years was when he played in the field more than a couple times, so the positional adjustment should be the same). Papi was top ten in WAR just three times and never higher than 4th.

Even if you ignore his Minnesota years, Papi's career OPS+ is 145. That's the same as Edgar for his entire career.

[Seabass177]

And signature post-season moments have not helped Jack Morris.

I have to disagree with this - without Game 7 Jack Morris isn't at 66% of the vote right now, and he's probably going to get in next year.

Regarding Ortiz, I'd say it's possible he gets in, but not likely at this point. If I had to guess, he'll fight a war of attrition with older BBWAA voters who don't want DHs in the HOF and will get in around year 13 on the ballot.