80 replies to this topic

[Rasputin]

Doubront = #2/3 Starter. Give it three years, and that will be that.

Time to resurrect this thread.

What the hell do we have here in Doubront? For this year, I have always been assuming he'd be a relative mediocrity, of value only because he's better than John Lackey. It's not Doobie's fault Buchholz is reprising that role.

I am most interested in looking at 2013 and 2014 here. For the rest of 2012, Doubront can continue as he has, pitching pretty damn well as he adjusts to being in the majors.

2013 is going to be interesting, though. We will likely have Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Doubront, and Lackey all coming to spring training thinking they are deserving of a spot in the rotation. It would be easy enough to put Bard back in the 'pen but we have to consider that Beckett is a FA after 2014, Lester will be as well as he has an option for 2014, and Lackey's TJS gave the team an option on him for 2015.

Which is to say, the next 2-3 years will likely see an enormous transition in the rotation. If Doubront can be a 2/3 that makes a lot of those decisions easier.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He's showing great stuff and nothing in his line suggests he's pitching over his head to this point. Not including today he has a 3.96 ERA with a 3.41 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP. His k/9 was 6th best in the majors among qualified starters and a .317 BABIP isn't far from league average. He has a 71.2 LOB% which is only 86th in the majors and is tied with Daniel Bard.

I'm seeing nothing to indicate that he's been lucky or carried by good defense. I'm sure we'd all like to see his 4.14 bb/9 come down a bit (and it will after today), but it looks like Doubront has taken a wonderful step forward and is making a case for a long term spot in the rotation.

[absintheofmalaise]

Pretty good performance from the rising star of the rotation. Six Ks in six innings. Four on FBs. One on a cutter and one on a curve. Very tight release point. Two hits. One walk and the two HRs. The first to Young was on a cutter close to his knees. The HR was a FB up in the zone, commonly know as a meat ball.

Consistent velocity with good movement on his pitches. Pretty good clusters on his movement charts.

I don't want to be too optimistic here, but it's exciting watching him pitch and Doubront and Beckett are really the only two pitchers I expect to pitch well pretty much all the time. If he keeps developing at this rate, it's going to make for some pretty difficult decisions for the FO in the near future. Here's some info from todays game from Brooks Baseball. I'm pretty sure there are still issues with the movement readings from Fenway, so take those with a grain of salt.

Doubront 5/28/12
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Whiffs / %	SNIPs / %	Linear Weights
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	92.87	94.8	4.56	11.55	27	20 / 74.07%	3 / 11.11%	15 / 68.18%	0.3417
CH (Changeup)	84.81	87.1	9.36	3.24	9	6 / 66.67%	2 / 22.22%	6 / 66.67%	-0.0851
CU (Curveball)	76.62	78.6	-1.61	-7.04	6	4 / 66.67%	1 / 16.67%	3 / 60.00%	-0.4045
FC (Cutter)	87.37	89.4	0.45	4.62	11	6 / 54.55%	1 / 9.09%	3 / 37.50%	0.8115
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	92.27	94	9.64	8.77	42	28 / 66.67%	8 / 19.05%	22 / 61.11%	-1.273

• Back to top

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'm pretty impressed that he loses so little velocity from his four-seamer to his two-seamer, and yet picks up almost double the horizontal movement. No wonder that two-seamer is such a good pitch for him. Pitchers who can do lots of damage with the fastball and can establish that early have lots of potential to last through the later innings as they work in the off-speed stuff.

I think the next step we need to see from Doubront is working later into games by being slightly more efficient. Without having watched the game to know how Doubront was looking in the sixth, I'd sort of like to have seen him come out for the seventh to see if he could induce some weak contact on short pitches. There's good indication his change is a plus pitch, but he barely broke it out.

[twothousandone]

I think the next step we need to see from Doubront is working later into games by being slightly more efficient.

can that wait until July/August? It seems to me with the guys ahead of him, his role is to keep the Sox in the game thru six. I agree that's the next step, it's just a matter of when -- when is it right him and for the Sox?

Doubront and Beckett are really the only two pitchers I expect to pitch well pretty much all the time.

Does that mean you are down on Lester, or he is always hit or miss? If find it hard to believe you feel better with Doubront starting than Lester.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Does that mean you are down on Lester, or he is always hit or miss? If find it hard to believe you feel better with Doubront starting than Lester.

Doubront has been the better starter this season pretty much hands down, and the only reason Lester could be arguably better is he's gone deeper into games. Lower ERA (and FIP/xFIP), higher K/9, higher K/BB ratio, and his worst start (5 ER) is tied with Lester's 3rd worst (5ER, 7ER, 7ER). When people were saying Doubront's upside was Jon Lester, I assume they meant the young one. Because right now he's pitching better.

[JimBoSox9]

Those clusters of 4-seamers, 2-seamers, and changups are a goddamn nightmare for a hitter's timing. Three profiles that must look identical until about the last 10 feet. You could totally see it with the fastballs in Cabrera's first AB - he looked like he couldn't believe that last fastball didn't come right back into his bat.

That plot does a great job of illustrating the deception in Doobie's arsenal, and combine that with how well he repeats his mechanics, it's easy to see how he's getting so many swings and misses. I'm not even too worried about the walks - they need to come down a bit long-term, but he's walking people because he's living on the edges, not because his release is all over the place.

[Sprowl]

I'm pleased to see Doubront bringing back the 4-seamer, which he almost discarded in 2011 and for most of April. In most games until this point he has used the 2-seamer on the edges to get two strikes, and then thrown the changeup to righties or the curve to lefties to get the strikeout. What the 4-seamer adds to the mix is the ability to bust righties up and in because it rides high so well. That was Doubront's best pitch during 2010, and can be a real weapon in his arsenal.

His command of the changeup is very impressive, the arm action is effective, and the horizontal movement is Foulkean. It's a real out pitch.

[Infield Infidel]

I'm tepidly optimistic about Doubront, especially for 2013, but how many innings will he be able to throw this season
Here's his IP for the last four seasons (not incl fall/winter leagues if any)

2008: 129.2
2009: 121
2010: 105.0
2011: 87.2

Could/should he go much beyond 130-150 IP? That would be 20 6ish inning starts, and then the rest of the season in the pen.

[Rasputin]

I'm tepidly optimistic about Doubront, especially for 2013, but how many innings will he be able to throw this season
Here's his IP for the last four seasons (not incl fall/winter leagues if any)

2008: 129.2
2009: 121
2010: 105.0
2011: 87.2

Could/should he go much beyond 130-150 IP? That would be 20 6ish inning starts, and then the rest of the season in the pen.

I suspect that depends in large part on DiceK, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I suspect that depends in large part on DiceK, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard.

Even with his slightly re-vamped delivery, it would be terrible malpractice to allow Doubront to throw more than 27 starts. He hasn't thrown significantly more than 100 IP in either of the last two years, is only 24, and already has a history of elbow injury.

140-160 IP should be the target. If the Sox need him as a bullpen arm, give him 20-22 starts and then use him as a short reliever for another 20-30 IP.

If the Sox current crop of 3 good LHPs don't develop some sort of blight over the summer, then just give him 25-27 starts with some skipped turns, and/or a two-week cruise aboard the S.S. Hellenic Flu, and/or an early end to the season.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 30 May 2012 - 02:36 PM.

[Rasputin]

Even with his slightly re-vamped delivery, it would be terrible malpractice to allow Doubront to throw more than 27 starts. He hasn't thrown significantly more than 100 IP in either of the last two years, is only 24, and already has a history of elbow injury.

140-160 IP should be the target. If the Sox need him as a bullpen arm, give him 20-22 starts and then use him as a short reliever for another 20-30 IP.

If the Sox current crop of 3 good LHPs don't develop some sort of blight over the summer, then just give him 25-27 starts with some skipped turns, and/or a two-week cruise aboard the S.S. Hellenic Flu, and/or an early end to the season.

I don't really disagree but I also don't really see where we're going to get the extra 10-20 starts that allow us to limit the innings for both Bard and Doubront.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't really disagree but I also don't really see where we're going to get the extra 10-20 starts that allow us to limit the innings for both Bard and Doubront.

Matsuzaka and Cook. Possibly Ohlendorf or Germano or a deadline deal.

It's not ideal, but that's what Ben decided was good enough before the season began. You just have to hope the top-three starters remain healthy, if not pitching up to their expected production.

[Sprowl]

Doubront had the lead early against the Blue Jays, and showed that he knew how to stop nibbling when the situation called for pounding the strike zone. While he continued to live on the outside edge to RHB, he threw more pitches than usual in the heart of the strike zone, and two of them ended up as home runs. He almost discarded the changeup (only 4), and the number of swinging strikes dipped correspondingly. He threw the curve often, and for strikes. 6.1 innings on 101 pitches is a positive indication for Doubront's efficiency.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I didn't watch the game yesterday, but on the radio O'Brien and Castig kept mentioning that Doubront was walkig "really, painfully slowly off the mound" at the end of innings and they seem to think he looked distracted or off somehow. Anybody know or have an idea what's up there? Is it possible there's a minor injury thing that's keeping him from throwing the change-up (I have no idea what that could be)? Seems strange that he'd not throw what many seem to think is a very good pitch for him in a pretty important start, even with the early lead.

[Sprowl]

Doubront threw his first bad game in quite a while against the Nationals. His offspeed pitches continued to be swing-and-miss (4 whiffs and 3 strikeouts on the curve, 5 whiffs and 2 strikeouts on the changeup and 1 whiff for 1 strikeout on the cutter), but his fastballs were very hittable. The doubles were not cheap hits either -- several were close to home runs.



The major problem is that Doubront continues to throw low fastballs, but he's not keeping them on the edges anymore: too many of them are middle-middle and very hittable:

[Plympton91]

I hope the pixie dust hasn't worn off. He was pitching a hell of a lot better than anyone had a right to expect given his minor league numbers. Disucky Matsuzaka, Red Sox Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

[absintheofmalaise]

I hope the pixie dust hasn't worn off. He was pitching a hell of a lot better than anyone had a right to expect given his minor league numbers. Disucky Matsuzaka, Red Sox Nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Still fine tuning the act I see.

[JimBoSox9]

Interesting outing. Good in the first, great in the second, then the wheels came off in the third. Strike percentages tell the tale - once he had to throw a lot of pitches from the stretch he lost command of both the 4 and 2-seamer. He kept mixing in a slide step with his already-low-leg-kick in the stretch, and did not look comfortable doing it. I think a couple of the lasers were off 2-seamers early in the count on the fat part of the plate - Maybe against this lineup he was trying to pitch to contact more rather than get ahead with the 4-seamer on the edge and then mix it up.

[Sprowl]

Doubront kept the game thread from mentioning a no-hitter into the 6th inning, and ended up with 7 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 1 bb, 9 K. His fastball command returned in this start. The pattern of mistakes avoided is not quite a donut -- more of a Rorschach test, really. What do you think it looks like?




Doubront threw many more letter-high fastballs then before, correcting his tendency to throw his fastball low at all times. Doubront needs to reset the batter's eye level from time to time to keep him from zeroing in on the low fastball. Doubront also simplified his repertoire, throwing only one cutter and fewer sinkers than before. The core pitches: 4-seam fastball, changeup and curve:



The changeup has very strong horizontal movement, and continues to make right-handed batters look foolish as they whiff. Doubront has two legitimate out pitches in the curve and changeup. He is turning out to be what Clay Buchholz was advertised as: a prospect with plus-plus curve and changeup, and enough velocity on the fastball to keep batters honest -- if he can learn to command the fastball.

[Eric Van]

BTW, for those wondering -- even though he shows up as a rookie at FanGraphs (and perhaps elsewhere), he isn't. He had 49 days in MLB during the 25-man roster limit (39 in 2010, 10 last April), four more than the rookie limit.

[Eric Van]

As good as he has been (great, relative to expectations), I think that moving him to the second LHR / long relief / spot start slot, and keeping Morales in the rotation, is a no-brainer, once everyone is healthy. It limits his innings, it conserves your starting pitching depth in a very big and important way, and it adds a potentially terrific tool to an already great bullpen. There will be plenty of spot starts for him, and probably one or two more stretches in the rotation when someone has to go on the DL. And in September (or earlier) they can swap him and Morales again, if Morales has come back to Earth and it seems like the thing to do.

Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz, Morales; Bailey, Aceves, Padilla, Atchison, Melancon, Miller, Doubront. (Albers gets dealt, ditto Cook.) Bard has until September to get his act together and is the guy you call up whenever anyone has to go on the DL. Hill? We'll see.

[24JoshuaPoint]

I'd say no Bard this year. He clearly has issues, whatever they are.

(null)

[Lose Remerswaal]

Any concerns over IP for Doubront?

I don't know the "rules" when he pitched more innings 3 and 4 years ago, but with Buchholz out for an extended time, doesn't that risk Doubront getting over 150 innings by the end of August (he's at 90 now)?

89 last year (combined major/minor)
105 in 2010
121 in 2009
129 in 2008

[AB in DC]

He's now walked more batters in his last six games (21 BB) than in the entire months of May and June combined (19 BB in 11 starts). Time to worry?

[maufman]

He's now walked more batters in his last six games (21 BB) than in the entire months of May and June combined (19 BB in 11 starts). Time to worry?

I think it's a confidence thing. He pitched a gem against the MFY on July 7th, but followed that up with a dreadful start against the White Sox, followed by starts against Texas and New York where his mistakes were hit hard. Not surprisingly, his response has been to indulge his tendency to nibble, causing him to fall behind in the count, forcing him into hitter's counts, causing him to get hit hard, etc.

Time for McClure to earn his keep.

Edit: Should add that part of the "problem" is the quality of opposition he's faced over that stretch.

Edited by maufman, 04 August 2012 - 11:24 AM.

[Plympton91]

I've just never seen his stuff as playing over the long haul. He's got a bunch of average pitches and decent control that will allow him to keep you in games, but will also generate high pitch counts that preclude the type of 7 and 8 inning outings needed from a top 3 starter. While he's cheap, and if the Red Sox get top 3 production out of their expensive veterans going forward, he'll be a good #4 or hopefully, #5. But absent mastery of a new pitch or marked improvement in one of his existing arsenal, I don't expect him to ever post a sub-4.50 ERA as a full-time starter in the major leagues.

[Sprowl]

Even after yesterday's mediocre outing, Doubront's K/9 is 8.75, seventh among AL starters and easily the best of the Red Sox starters. That tells me that he's got stuff that is better than average, especially his changeup which has piled up some great swinging-strike numbers. His HR/FB is 14%, so he has also suffered a little bit of bad luck, as mauf noted. He is not even 25 yet, and his 2011 was essentially a lost year for development purposes. It is way too early to write him off as a low-ceiling starter.

[biollante]

Doesn't he just throw too many pitches ? If he threw more strikes, he would be better (or maybe just hit more often?). He doesn't seem to keep going after batters at times. There is something about his approach that needs tweaking.

[Sprowl]

Doesn't he just throw too many pitches ? If he threw more strikes, he would be better (or maybe just hit more often?). He doesn't seem to keep going after batters at times. There is something about his approach that needs tweaking.

I think that nibbling with the fastball is a good approach for him. He doesn't have enough movement on his 2-seamer to challenge hitters with it. Perhaps he might add 1-2 mph on his fastball as he approaches 27, which would help him get away with the occasional challenge. He has already added 1-2 mph since his first appearance with the Red Sox in 2010, and now tops out at 94 instead of 92. He occasionally throws a 4-seamer up and in to RHB, which works when it is a surprise, but it batters saw it often enough to look for it, he might be in trouble. On the rare occasions when he has a lead, he does throw strikes with the fastball and often enough has gotten hit very hard. He can and does challenge hitters with the changeup and curve, and I think his approach works pretty well for the stuff he's got now.

[Sprowl]

Doobie has been pitching a month past his rest-by date, mostly because the Red Sox have so few competent starters. It has gotten so bad that Remsillo are talking up Lackey for a token end-of-season cameo. Nevertheless, he continues to show that he has swing-and-miss stuff with the changeup and curve. He has gone back to nibbling with the fastball (a good and inevitable decision, given the lack of deception on his two-seamer. A little respect would go a long way for Doubront: until umpires start to recognize how good he is at nibbling, he's going to give up walks and rack up pitch counts.

Some good things for a near-rookie starter:

Durability: he makes a lot of starts, throws a lot of pitches, and maintains good velocity. As soon as he can maintain fastball command, he will be a good AL starter.

Stuff: K/9 rates and whiff rates both bode well for the future.

Stats: it's hard to put lipstick on a 5+ ERA, but this pig looks pretty good anyway.