280 replies to this topic

[Pumpsie]

OK, then we're saying the same thing - he changes something to get a little extra on it, and this is a bad thing.

Edit: To be clear, I wasn't trying to be snarky with my original response. I simply wanted to understand what Aceves was changing to make his "fast fastball" go straight, because speed alone is not what would cause this.

I think what happens when a pitcher is trying too hard, or feeling stress, is that they subtly (and without being aware of it) grip the ball a little too tightly and this leads to that wrist-straightening thing and the ball loses movement no matter how hard they throw it. Have to maintain a soft grip out there no matter how tense things get.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I think what happens when a pitcher is trying too hard, or feeling stress, is that they subtly (and without being aware of it) grip the ball a little too tightly and this leads to that wrist-straightening thing and the ball loses movement no matter how hard they throw it. Have to maintain a soft grip out there no matter how tense things get.

This strikes me as accurate. Overthrowing leads to mechanical mistakes.. Mechanical mistakes lead to straight pitches and missed locations, which often leave the yard with rockets strapped to their asses, like Cabrera's ball did.

[TomRicardo]

OK, then we're saying the same thing - he changes something to get a little extra on it, and this is a bad thing.

Edit: To be clear, I wasn't trying to be snarky with my original response. I simply wanted to understand what Aceves was changing to make his "fast fastball" go straight, because speed alone is not what would cause this.

No we are not. In order to throw a max effort fastball RHP tend to straighten their wrist. This isn't something that just Aceves does. This is a near universal.

[Rough Carrigan]

Just wanted to add that the curves Aceves threw in last night's game were absolutely beautiful. Tight, late breaking on the outside corner with a more 12 to 6 sort of shape to 'em and dropping just below the strike zone. Nobody's gonna hit those hard.

[JakeRae]

No we are not. In order to throw a max effort fastball RHP tend to straighten their wrist. This isn't something that just Aceves does. This is a near universal.

The same is true for LHP. Max effort tenses muscles and locks up the wrist. Human physiology isn't altered in any fundamental way by handedness.

[Sprowl]

I think what happens when a pitcher is trying too hard, or feeling stress, is that they subtly (and without being aware of it) grip the ball a little too tightly and this leads to that wrist-straightening thing and the ball loses movement no matter how hard they throw it. Have to maintain a soft grip out there no matter how tense things get.

I don't see any evidence that his fastball straightened out against Detroit. Both the horizontal and vertical movement numbers exceeded his averages for 2011. The pitch that Cabrera homered on was +8", +8" at 94.5 mph, not quite as fast as the fastballs on the two cheap singles that preceded it. Aceves had good stuff, but missed his spot and caught too much of the plate against an excellent hitter.

[Plympton91]

Kudos to Cherrington for reinforcing the commitment to Bard as a starter, expressing support for the current relief corps, and suggesting that if help is needed it is as likely to come via trade as via a shortsighted, reactionary switch of Bard back to the pen.

Also Kudos to Valentine for going right back to Aceves, and to Aceves for stepping up and demanding the opportunity upon arriving at the ballpark.

The bullpen might be very much a problem in one-run games or if they need someone to come into a tight situation in the middle of a late inning. I have little confidence in any of these guys as a relief ace. The lack of one will, I'm sure, bite them in the ass at some point. But, as others have said, if the current corps isn't good enough to lock down nearly all 2 and 3 run 9th-inning leads, the problem is larger than the need for a relief ace.

With the monkey off their backs, hopefully the offense can put up an early crooked number for Daniel Bard, starter, tonight.

[luckysox]

If the Sox are ahead in the 9th and it's a save situation, does Aceves come out again after pitching 3 out of 4 days, and if not, who does Valentine go to? What say you, SoSH?

[czar]

I'm with Sprowl. While an interesting hypothesis (and one I'd never heard before, even as someone who pitched up until the college club level), there is no evidence in the PitchF/X data or even comments from Aceves indicating that there was a different level of anxiety/overthrowingness/whatever between Sunday and Monday.

He threw awful pitches on Sunday (at least one awful awful one). Monday he had better location but I think the pitch selection (mixing in a strong curve, etc.) was what really (indirectly) made the fastball stand out. TOR's Pf/x issues aside, the pitches doesn't appear quantitatively different.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think Melancon is the closer tonight. Before him, Bowden, Albers and Morales.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If the Sox are ahead in the 9th and it's a save situation, does Aceves come out again after pitching 3 out of 4 days, and if not, who does Valentine go to? What say you, SoSH?

I think depending on the match-ups, it's probably either Morales or Melancon.

Morales was the guy he had up behind Aceves last night, whether that was because he's the new back-up plan or because Valentine anticipated that if he needed to yank Aceves it would be for Rasmus is a mystery.

He's got to get Melancon back on the horse one way or another, just like he did with Aceves, so maybe if it's gonna be a save of the two or three run variety, he'll give Melancon another shot. Though I think it would be better to give him a clean 7th or 8th inning to lock down if it's a confidence booster he's looking for.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If the Sox have a lead, I assume they would go to Aceves again. Sure he's pitched in three games, but it's not as if he's thrown a lot of pitches.

[rembrat]

Since his nightmare series in Detroit he has posted 3IP 0H 0BB 4K with a FBv of 94.4

My biggest knock against him was his lack of strikeouts but if he can keep his K/9 north of 9 then, damn, look out.

For the record, I don't think he is pitching any differently. He is pumping in FB after FB and mixing in the occasional breaking pitch. Ace proving us wrong once again?

[Reverend]

Since his nightmare series in Detroit he has posted 3IP 0H 0BB 4K with a FBv of 94.4

My biggest knock against him was his lack of strikeouts but if he can keep his K/9 north of 9 then, damn, look out.

For the record, I don't think he is pitching any differently. He is pumping in FB after FB and mixing in the occasional breaking pitch. Ace proving us wrong once again?

Well, something's going on with that added zip on the fastball. And it seems he hit just under 96 today.

Edited by Reverend, 15 April 2012 - 05:20 PM.

[rembrat]

I mean, he isn't pitching any differently than he did in Detroit. He's been cranking it up since Detroit.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Ace proving us wrong once again?

I hope so, but I'm not convinced yet. His FB velocity is 2.3 mph faster than his previous career high (last year) and it's not like he's at an age where you would expect him to pick up velocity. It might be real, and if it is he could be a nasty reliever, but it could just be a couple of good days where he was feeling really loose or it could be something else.

A 94-95 mph fastball with his curve ball makes for a great combination, so here's to hoping the increase is real and will last.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 15 April 2012 - 05:28 PM.

[Doctor G]

I mean, he isn't pitching any differently than he did in Detroit. He's been cranking it up since Detroit.

He is throwing hard but is mixing in his other pitcheshttp://www.brooksbas...1/&prevDate=415

[Sprowl]

Since his nightmare series in Detroit he has posted 3IP 0H 0BB 4K with a FBv of 94.4

My biggest knock against him was his lack of strikeouts but if he can keep his K/9 north of 9 then, damn, look out.

For the record, I don't think he is pitching any differently. He is pumping in FB after FB and mixing in the occasional breaking pitch. Ace proving us wrong once again?

I mean, he isn't pitching any differently than he did in Detroit. He's been cranking it up since Detroit.

I think the biggest differences are variety, luck, and not facing Miguel Cabrera. The action on his changeup was excellent against the Rays, and he still has the cutter in reserve to help out against difficult lefties. He is throwing the curve 2 mph harder than last year, and it appears to be tighter and less loopy. The velocity is consistent - he registered 95 in Detroit too.

[Al Zarilla]

Isn't the added velocity probably because as a closer he knows he's generally only going one inning, so he's reaching back for that reserve all pitchers have?

[rembrat]

He is throwing hard but is mixing in his other pitcheshttp://www.brooksbas...1/&prevDate=415

73% fastballs (both four and two) is way up from his last year's 49%. He's pitching like a 2 pitch closer now.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Isn't the added velocity probably because as a closer he knows he's generally only going one inning, so he's reaching back for that reserve all pitchers have?

Could be. For now, that's as good an explanation as any, but it's not like he was starting all that much last year (4 out of 55 appearances) and his velocity had a similar jump from 2010 to 2011, but it seems a bit weird that it would jump *that* much in the span of two years because he's going from 2-3 innings every few nights to 1 to 1+ three or four times a week.

I guess it's possible that he had a mental block of sorts in place, holding back in case he got called on to take a five inning hit in a blow out or something, but isn't this bit of conventional wisdom usually reserved for starters converting to relief?

[Al Zarilla]

Could be. For now, that's as good an explanation as any, but it's not like he was starting all that much last year (4 out of 55 appearances) and his velocity had a similar jump from 2010 to 2011, but it seems a bit weird that it would jump *that* much in the span of two years because he's going from 2-3 innings every few nights to 1 to 1+ three or four times a week.

I guess it's possible that he had a mental block of sorts in place, holding back in case he got called on to take a five inning hit in a blow out or something, but isn't this bit of conventional wisdom usually reserved for starters converting to relief?

I think that's it, i.e., long men may take on the mentality of a starter, so they hold back a bit. Then again, the other current lunatic, Vicente Padilla, seems to let it fly whenever he comes in. Both of these guys are fearless dudes though, not afraid to throw strikes. I'm liking them now that they're Red Sox. Wackos, but they're our wackos.

[JakeRae]

The adrenaline of closing could also be playing a role in the increased velocity. I was pretty strongly against Aceves as a closer. If his stuff really does play up in the new role as it has so far, I would be thrilled to be proven wrong. A 2.3 mph bump in his fastball so far is incredibly encouraging. As the weather warms up, we could see that number increase a bit further. Padilla seems to be doing great in a multi-inning role right now too which makes it easier to have Aceves be a one inning guy. I still think this is a pen that is going to be solid over the course of the season. As guys start to get healthy, there is going to be great depth. Morales and Aceves both seem to be taking a step forward and Padilla's stuff plays up in the pen. If they can get Melancon going and get Hill back, that's 5 guys I'd trust in a close game. While we will still likely blow more close leads than we would've with a more elite back end, having good depth means we should be in a position to come from behind more often too.

[Plympton91]

Aceves' velocity seems to be the real revelation thus far, and shows again why you need to weight the opinion of baseball people along with the spreadsheet analysis. Remy has repeatedly attributed the increased velocity to Aceves preparing to pitch only one inning versus last year being asked to go 3 plus innings regularly. However, it seemed to me he started throwing this hard last September. There was a lot of discussion of his peripherals for the full year 2011 and for his career, but if you look at last August and September, his peripherals really took a step forward, especially K/9 -- 40.2 IP, 2HR, 15 BB, 37 K.

It would be interesting to see one of those velocity, movement charts for the first half of last season, vs. the second half, vs. so far in 2012. Even better if you could break it down by when he entered the game -- if he came into the game in the 6th, he'd be prepping for a long outing, if he came into the game in the 8th, he'd be letting loose.

[czar]

Bring it. Ace has the makeup. He's fearless, slightly off center and a hell of a pitcher.

I, for one, am pretty happy. Love Aceves and the fire he brings. The inherited runner issues others have brought up will, hopefully, not be an issue as he's trotted out in the 9th inning.

Well, we're lucky he has the makeup and the fire, because he doesn't have the peripherals.

[Yaz4Ever]

Well, we're lucky he has the makeup and the fire, because he doesn't have the peripherals.

Yeah, I might flip-flop on that quote if you don't mind.

[Plympton91]

Well, we're lucky he has the makeup and the fire, because he doesn't have the peripherals.

The peripherals of whom? Jonathan Papelbon? Nope, but even Papelbon laid some eggs now and then, especially when brought into an 8th inning with momentum going in entirely the wrong direction. Papelbon blew two saves against the Orioles last fall very similarly to what Aceves has done this April.

Over the long run, the Red Sox will get what they decided to pay for, a "closer" with about a league average save percentage. And, then they'll get Bailey back in around August 1st. Hopefully, some of his "peripherals" -- like his away from Oakland numbers -- aren't as predictive.

[Sprowl]

It's hard to predict from his peripherals how Aceves will fare as a closer because the stuff he's bringing in the 9th inning is very different from what we have seen before.

The changes: Aceves changes his position on the rubber according to the hitter.



As a starter or long reliever, Aceves has a 4-pitch repertoire: fastball, curve, changeup, cutter. As a closer, however, he mostly brings the heat, with just the occasional changeup to lefties or curve to righties. How much heat? PitchFX measures 93-97, in a park that had Daniel Bard averaging only 94.



Did I mention that I love his location? Nothing middle-middle.

[reggiecleveland]

Was the gun screwed today? Was he really hitting 98?

[Harry Hooper]

Was the gun screwed today? Was he really hitting 98?

Whatever the number, he DID look to be throwing ~3 mph more than Bard did yesterday.

[Dick Pole Upside]

Beauty of a change-up to end it. AJ looked silly.