280 replies to this topic

[Plympton91]

Isn't there a chance? Certainly there's a chance. There's a chance that Bowden's splitter will help him finally stick at the ML level and that Tazawa's return to health will allow him to contribute as well. But until those chances turn into realities, the bullpen that faded in September and subtracted in the offseason is going to be suspect. There's not one guy that I trust out there, and frankly, I'm not comfortable with the thought of Melancon adequately replacing Bard at setup, much less Papelbon as closer.

If your starters are going 7 and the lineup is throwing up 6 and 7 runs regularly, as should be the case, the weak bullpen will be minimized, but it's definitely the weak link until they catch some lightning in a bottle.

[pjheff]

If your starters are going 7 and the lineup is throwing up 6 and 7 runs regularly, as should be the case, the weak bullpen will be minimized, but it's definitely the weak link until they catch some lightning in a bottle.

Those are some big ifs, though. I feel very confident about our offense, that it might even be better than last year's lineup. And I'm more bullish on this year's rotation than last year's MASH unit, although even then I have reservations saying that "your starters are going 7" after Lester with even year Beckett, back injury Buchholz, rookie Doubront, and conversion Bard. Thus, games will get turned over to the "weak bullpen" that you correctly label the "weak link." And while you suggest waiting "until" they catch some lightning in a bottle, presupposing that it's simply a matter of time, I'm concerned that there may be a basic lack of electric stuff out there.

[Sprowl]

I'm concerned that there may be a basic lack of electric stuff out there.

This is an interesting possibility. What counts as electric, and who in the current bullpen might develop electricity with opportunity?

• Morales had the best velocity and command among the relievers in the opening day game. Throwing 94 as a left-hander might be electric.
• Hill's curve was electric before his elbow gave way. It may take him a little while to regain that level of command.
• Albers (94 mph sinker) had command last spring, then lost it last summer. Can he get it back?
• Atchison's slider is a very impressive pitch against RHB, but his electric potential is strictly situational.
• Aceves' variety with movement can hit the batter with a jolt, but is subject to intermittent power outages.
• Melancon's stuff does not give off sparks (but I'm still waiting to see that cutter).
• Bowden's stuff is so unelectric it has to be viewed by candlelight.
• Padilla might have third rail potential.

[TheYellowDart5]

Guess we'll get to see how long a leash Valentine has. Aceves has been putrid in both his outings so far.

[rembrat]

Colossal fail by Valentine naming a guy with a 6 K/9 and pitch to contact guy to close out games. Give the damn job to Melancon already.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Aceves has faced five batters this season, gotten none out. Expected him to regress, not this quickly. This bullpen, and this team, is a disaster. Who can Valentine go to, Padilla?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Aceves has faced five batters this season, gotten none out. Expected him to regress, not this quickly. This bullpen, and this team, is a disaster. Who can Valentine go to, Padilla?

Padilla's too valuable in the long-relief role.

[TheYellowDart5]

Melancon will probably get the first shot since he has closer experience. But given how well Morales has pitched in his first two outings, I'd be inclined to give him a shot, too.

[rembrat]

Melancon will probably get the first shot since he has closer experience. But given how well Morales has pitched in his first two outings, I'd be inclined to give him a shot, too.

But then you lose your one LHP out the pen that has 'blow you away' stuff. Mark Melancon was the smart choice from day 1.

[Plympton91]

Why?

Shit happens. Mariano Rivera blew the Yankees first game, Daniel Bard lost 10 games last year. Cabrera has homered a lot of times the past few years.

The mark of a bad manager is changing your mind after two games.

Full steam ahead.

[TheYellowDart5]

Why?

Shit happens. Mariano Rivera blew the Yankees first game, Daniel Bard lost 10 games last year. Cabrera has homered a lot of times the past few years.

The mark of a bad manager is changing your mind after two games.

Full steam ahead.

If Aceves had the track record of Mariano Rivera, I doubt anyone here would be calling for his head. But he doesn't, and based on these two outings, he seems way out of his element at closer.

Edited by TheYellowDart5, 08 April 2012 - 03:56 PM.

[rembrat]

Because it was a poor choice to begin with and everyone recognized he was only given the job to compensate for not getting a spot in the rotation.

[sfip]

If Aceves had the track record of Mariano Rivera, I doubt anyone here would be calling for his head.

If I didn't recognize your username, I'd say you must be new here.

[TheYellowDart5]

If I didn't recognize your username, I'd say you must be new here.

Hah, I should've said, "I doubt intelligent people would be calling for his head."

[sfip]

That's more like it.

[Norm Siebern]

Why?

Shit happens. Mariano Rivera blew the Yankees first game, Daniel Bard lost 10 games last year. Cabrera has homered a lot of times the past few years.

The mark of a bad manager is changing your mind after two games.

Full steam ahead.

Agreed. If they change course after three games that is the wrong move. If you want to lay blame, lay it on a front office that cannot put together a bullpen. And this coming from someone who doesn't like Bobby the Fifth.

This bullpen wll lead me to drinlk a fifth.

[OttoC]

...Daniel Bard lost 10 games last year...

Nine.

[TheYellowDart5]

Melancon isn't exactly inspiring a lot of confidence right now either. Lot of hard contact in his outings.

[rembrat]

FWIW, if there is no shift vs Fielder, the Sox win, and Melancon gets the save.

But who cares at this point.

[TheYellowDart5]

Okay, so let's go ahead and cross Melancon off the closer list, too.

[cannonball 1729]

FWIW, if there is no shift vs Fielder, the Sox win, and Melancon gets the save.

But who cares at this point.

Eh. You're supposed to pitch to where your defense is. Melancon's fastball missed its location by a foot; it was supposed to be inside and it wasn't.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This has to be the worst bullpen by a so-called contender in a long while. There's no one on the current roster who I'd be surprised to see released. What a clusterfuck. Great work, Ben.

[ngruz25]

FWIW, if there is no shift vs Fielder, the Sox win, and Melancon gets the save.

But who cares at this point.

Who's to say that if there is no shift, Fielder doesn't hit a 450 foot bomb instead of a single?

Melancon has missed his spots badly so far. When you don't really have top-shelf stuff in the first place, that's a problem.

[Yaz4Ever]

If Aceves had the track record of Mariano Rivera, I doubt anyone here would be calling for his head. But he doesn't, and based on these two outings, he seems way out of his element at closer.

Because it was a poor choice to begin with and everyone recognized he was only given the job to compensate for not getting a spot in the rotation.

I, for one, am pretty happy. Love Aceves and the fire he brings. The inherited runner issues others have brought up will, hopefully, not be an issue as he's trotted out in the 9th inning.

Still a fan, but he needs to go back to long relief. The trouble is, I can't think of anyone better than Daniel Bard for the closer role right now and I'm not sold on him as the closer. I liked the idea of Bard in the rotation, but that might not last beyond his start in Toronto at this pace.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Melancon just looked awfully shell-shocked in the post-game interview. "Yeah, if I can ever sleep again..." Ugly.

Buchholz at least gave it the old Lackey-esque "seemed like everything they hit just found a hole..."

[Foulkey Reese]

Tim Britton ‏ @TBritton_Projo

Asked whether Bard is an option to close, Valentine said, "Might be."

[Rudy Pemberton]

If I'm Bobby V, I'd tell Cherington to find a bonafide closer, or else Bard and Padilla switch roles. This current crew will get both guys fired.

[Plympton91]

This has to be the worst bullpen by a so-called contender in a long while. There's no one on the current roster who I'd be surprised to see released. What a clusterfuck. Great work, Ben.

Good closers cost money. This organization decided to spend 80 million to acquire a someone who at his best would be the team's 4th best starter and 140 million to acquire someone who at his best would be the team's 6th best non-pitcher. Then they let their closer sign somewhere else for a little more than the Yankees are paying Rafael Soriano to be a set up man.

[NomarRS05]

Tim Britton ‏ @TBritton_Projo

Asked whether Bard is an option to close, Valentine said, "Might be."

He's already talking about it? Cool Hand Bobby...

[Plympton91]

If I'm Bobby V, I'd tell Cherington to find a bonafide closer, or else Bard and Padilla switch roles. This current crew will get both guys fired.

If Aceves and Melancon aren't good enough to close, they aren't good enough to be the primary set up men either.

[Jinhocho]

Team in chaos. This has been a long year and I really dont see it shortening anytime soon. I, for one, would love them to make Bard the closer and leave him there.

[bschase2]

So, my Dad is in town for the Holidays, and we watched the game together. He has decided Bard needs to be the closer. "He can't take this anymore!" There is a reason my Dad is sitting on my couch, and not working for a MLB, but I have found he is an accurate representation of the majority of fans out there. This will get ugly quickly, and there is no one around who has any track record with the fans or media.

Edited by bschase2, 08 April 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[Laser Show]

Melancon just looked awfully shell-shocked in the post-game interview. "Yeah, if I can ever sleep again..." Ugly.

Buchholz at least gave it the old Lackey-esque "seemed like everything they hit just found a hole..."

He didn't actually say this... right?

[yecul]

Good closers cost money. This organization decided to spend 80 million to acquire a someone who at his best would be the team's 4th best starter and 140 million to acquire someone who at his best would be the team's 6th best non-pitcher. Then they let their closer sign somewhere else for a little more than the Yankees are paying Rafael Soriano to be a set up man.

... and acquired Bailey who got hurt.

[Robert Plant]

Why?

Shit happens. Mariano Rivera blew the Yankees first game, Daniel Bard lost 10 games last year. Cabrera has homered a lot of times the past few years.

The mark of a bad manager is changing your mind after two games.

Full steam ahead.

I could not agree more. Valentine absolutely has to give Aceves at least a three week trial in the closer role and give Bard at least a 3 week trial in his starter role. To do anything else would inspire a severe lack of confidence among the players. Now if Valentine hadn't shot his mouth off about Aceves being the new closer and the front office hadn't shot its collective mouth off about Bard being converted to a starter, we would not have this dilemma. In the meantime, to mitigate Aceves potentially being a disaster at closer, Valentine should leave guys in who are going well (e.g. Padilla today).

Edited by Robert Plant, 08 April 2012 - 06:19 PM.

[pjheff]

If Aceves and Melancon aren't good enough to close, they aren't good enough to be the primary set up men either.

That is a distinct possibility. Melancon may be closer to Wheeler than Bard as replacements go, and Aceves might be better suited to a swing man's role than the back end of the bullpen.

[LeoCarrillo]

If Aceves and Melancon aren't good enough to close, they aren't good enough to be the primary set up men either.

At least not against our first five opponents, basically the best of the AL minus the Angels.

First 15 games: Detroit (4th in AL in team OPS last year + Fielder) followed by Toronto (6th in '11 OPS), Tampa (only 8th, phew), Texas (2nd) and MFY (3rd).

Brutal stretch for Community Auditions for closer.

[HillysLastWalk]

Good closers cost money. This organization decided to spend 80 million to acquire a someone who at his best would be the team's 4th best starter and 140 million to acquire someone who at his best would be the team's 6th best non-pitcher. Then they let their closer sign somewhere else for a little more than the Yankees are paying Rafael Soriano to be a set up man.

100% agree with this post. I'm going to be beating the Papelbon drum for a long time. Especially in light of the tens of millions they throw around elsewhere. Shouldn't the Red Sox be one of the few teams that get to overpay for these "useless closers"? Ya know, theses guys that are so replaceable and aren't worth the money?

In theory, and with baseball rosters assembled in simulations that are repeated 1000's of times, sure. I might agree. Let the Red Sox have Papelbon walk. Sure. But here's the thing. We just didn't have the arms. So I felt we were stuck with having to overpay. It wasn't like we had some stud rookie ready to step up. Or a massively good bullpen with ridiculous power arms. Or a setup guy that was groomed for the past few years to do this, and that said person wasn't going to move into the rotation instead. And what about Theo/Ben (as I'm sure they use very similar philosiphies) over the years has shown us they can build a bullpen? without say spending the money on the Foulke's and Papelbon's of the world? This reminds me of 2003 all over again. It's not like they continually found the Rich Garces type of nugget or had the type of success Tampa Bay had last year putting together a bullpen on the cheap and sticking a Farnsworth back there.

Instead, they overspent on the players you mentioned. Or threw money at oft-injured guys like Jenks. Or traded decent players for the Bailey's of the world. I mean I'm sure he'd be good, but when will he ever have a year where he doesn't miss a boatload of time? Bard, Papelbon, and a Bailey and Melancon would have been an awesome start to this bullpen. It would have been one of our strenghts. Plus with the arms we found, we'd be having some Colon and Garcia from the scrapheap magic this year. Padilla, Aceves, Cook could all be looking to start and fill the 4th and 5th spot, with DiceK ready for the summer. All they had to do was pay Papelbon, not pay Jenks (was it not obvious Jenks was brought in for when they let Papelbon walk)? Thats all they had to do and this team is solid. Now they are 0-3, have a shitty bullpen, and they look like a laughing stock, following up last years collapse with this shit.

Congratulations Red Sox you didnt overpay for a closer. Yay us. Instead we overspent on many others. Instead we let today and opening day slip away. Remember, we are in baseball's new rules. Our favorite playoff launching pad, the wild card, now gets us a chance at a one game playoff. Thats if we make it. Thats why the premium for wins just went up. Every game is even more important. You have to shoot for the division now. The rules have changed. You cant shit away games. I bet the Phillies realized that.

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 08 April 2012 - 06:50 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

Three-game sample sizes are not a good way to make decisions, ugly as those three games may be. These guys have come back from 0-3 before, you know....

[Plympton91]

... and acquired Bailey who got hurt.

Which is the only reason he was available in the first place. Dan Duquette used to like to be the season on a bunch of injured pitchers and scrap heap guys behind Pedro too. Hopeully, Ben learned more from Theo than from Dan.

[Rudy Pemberton]

A fair point, PKB, but that was with guys who had a pretty solid track record. The thing that gets me about this pen is that if you went back just two years ago, you'd find none of these guys as big league relievers. We've seen what happens when guys aren't sure about their roles before. I guess that's really just the Bailey injury rearing its ugly head, But, this seems like a pen that could be reminiscent of the '97 Mariners.

[yecul]

Which is the only reason he was available in the first place. Dan Duquette used to like to be the season on a bunch of injured pitchers and scrap heap guys behind Pedro too. Hopeully, Ben learned more from Theo than from Dan.

Your schtick is impressively consistent.

[Infield Infidel]

Colossal fail by Valentine naming a guy with a 6 K/9 and pitch to contact guy to close out games. Give the damn job to Melancon already.

It was a fail naming anyone at all. Naming Aceves, or really anyone, is like saying "This is our fourth choice* for the job, go gettem slugger!"
*after Paps, Bard, and Bailey

When your closer (Bailey) goes down late in the spring, this is an opportunity to mix and match, and see if someone can grow into or take the role. You can frame it as "waiting from someone to earn the job." If one guy does very well, then he gets it, but otherwise just go with match-ups, handedness, etc.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I could not agree more. Valentine absolutely has to give Aceves at least a three week trial in the closer role and give Bard at least a 3 week trial in his starter role. To do anything else would inspire a severe lack of confidence among the players. Now if Valentine hadn't shot his mouth off about Aceves being the new closer and the front office hadn't shot its collective mouth off about Bard being converted to a starter, we would not have this dilemma. In the meantime, to mitigate Aceves potentially being a disaster at closer, Valentine should leave guys in who are going well (e.g. Padilla today).

And if he blows a couple more games, it won't matter. After all, the Sox didn't miss the playoffs by one game last....wait a minute.

Aceves has been a disaster. They took a guy who threw 114 innings of kickass multi-inning relief and spot starting and named him a 1 inning closer, a role he's never fufilled before. And he's failed miserably. I wouldn't give him another chance. Put him back where he thrived last year and use someone else.

Note well: had Valetine made the convential wisdom choice of Melancon the Sox would still be 0-3 because he's sucked too, so there's not much of a difference here. But they'll need a change.

[trekfan55]

When your closer (Bailey) goes down late in the spring, this is an opportunity to mix and match, and see if someone can grow into or take the role. You can frame it as "waiting from someone to earn the job." If one guy does very well, then he gets it, but otherwise just go with match-ups, handedness, etc.

This I can agree with. The obvious backup closer seemed to be Melancon, but he did not impress in Spring Training so they should have gone by situation.

BTW, Morales has done a good job so far,

[czar]

Good closers cost money. This organization decided to spend 80 million to acquire a someone who at his best would be the team's 4th best starter and 140 million to acquire someone who at his best would be the team's 6th best non-pitcher. Then they let their closer sign somewhere else for a little more than the Yankees are paying Rafael Soriano to be a set up man.

Let's nip this in the bud. I am going to list the top RP by fWAR in 2011. I have done you the favor of bolding those who made more than $4 million last year.

Craig Kimbrell
Papelbon
Sean Marshall
David Robertson
Mariano Rivera
Greg Holland
Joel Hanrahan
John Axford
Daniel Bard
Mike Adams
Glen Perkins
Jordan Walden
JJ Putz
Ryan Madson
Jonny Venters
Jim Johnson
Eric O'Flaherty
Sergio Santos
Matt Thornton
Rafael Betancourt
Jason Motte
Vinnie Pestano
Kenley Jansen

Saying that teams need to spend wads of cash if they have any hope of having a playoff bullpen is absolutely ludicrous.

[dynomite]

Good closers cost money.

I was going to write a response to this that began "Craig Kimbrel. John Axford. Joel Hanrahan. Brandon League. Jordan Walden. Jason Motte." and made a number of subsequent points, but then czar stole my thunder.

So instead, I'll just say that I agree, that "good" closers come from every possible background, and that relief pitching is notoriously unpredictable.

[czar]

Aceves has been a disaster. They took a guy who threw 114 innings of kickass multi-inning relief and spot starting and named him a 1 inning closer, a role he's never fufilled before. And he's failed miserably. I wouldn't give him another chance. Put him back where he thrived last year and use someone else.

Not to discount his value as a swingman/middle reliever, but (what you cover aside above) I can't believe people keep glossing over the fact that the Sox picked a guy who had a 2011 4.77 xFIP, 6.32 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9 (and the league leader in HBP/9 to boot!) to be their closer and somehow feel his peripherals will magically turn around and match his 2011 ERA instead of the other way around.

Here's the dirty little secret on Alfredo Aceves: he's never going to be a good closer for the Boston Red Sox. The sooner the Sox realize it and move on, the better for everyone involved.

EDIT: ... and I say this as someone who is vehemently against paying for saves (see above). But if you are talking a 1-inning reliever, I don't even think Aceves is in the top 3 in his own bullpen.

Edited by czar, 08 April 2012 - 07:43 PM.

[Pumpsie]

Eh. You're supposed to pitch to where your defense is. Melancon's fastball missed its location by a foot; it was supposed to be inside and it wasn't.

And we have Bingo! Managers can call for this pitcher or that pitcher, this pinch hitter or that pinch hitter, or this play or that play, but, in the final analysis, it's up to the players to get it done or not. When they do, the manager looks like a genius. When they don't, he looks like an idiot. That has never changed since baseball was invented.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I was going to write a response to this that began "Craig Kimbrel. John Axford. Joel Hanrahan. Brandon League. Jordan Walden. Jason Motte." and made a number of subsequent points, but then czar stole my thunder.

So instead, I'll just say that I agree, that "good" closers come from every possible background, and that relief pitching is notoriously unpredictable.

Bad/injured closers often cost a lot of money too. BJ Ryan (who was a notable pobject of lust for P91 a few years ago ) cost $52 million or so and delivered very little for that money due to injury.

This isn't to play internet gotcha, all of us have said things that tuned out to be untrue or unfortunate. (Tim Thomas, blah blah blah). But free agent closers cost a boatload of cash and often don't contribute enough to be worth it due to the stress and short lifespan of the position.