193 replies to this topic

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Bright side: Bailey will be fresh for the stretch run and it's like trading for TWO pitchers (Daisuke & Bailey)!

Medium side: If Bailey was only going to be good for 30-40 innings, I'd rather have them in August, September & October.

Dark side: Best on-paper acquisition in awful off-season doesn't make it out of ST.

This entire post made me laugh...

[Manramsclan]

The whole line of discussion regarding the culpability of the Red Sox front office with regards to mitigating risk on acquisitions, and regarding the culpability of the Red Sox medical staff with regards to keeping these guys on the field, I think Jonathan Papelbon has to be mentioned.

They designed a program for him after his subluxation and his religious dedication to that regimen has resulted in him staying on the field since then and posting dominant seasons as a reliever.

It could be that the FO/Medical staff have the right strategies but that the players themselves do not follow the instructions as diligently as they could. We know that one did, and it worked out tremendously for him and for the Red Sox while he was here.

This is all moot with regards to Andrew Bailey as he was injured in a collision, but the medical staff can only do so much. The player has to follow the program.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Michael Silverman ‏ @MikeSilvermanBB

• Bailey will be out 4 to 5 months, per #RedSox source.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 03 April 2012 - 05:59 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

#nickcafardo Daniel Bard has progressed as a starter, but should this experiment be scrapped with Andrew Bailey out until the All-Star break?

#peteabe The dumbest thing the #RedSox could do now is pull a Joba on Daniel Bard and bounce him around. Use Melancon or Aceves.

[mauidano]

Better this happen now than halfway through the season. It sucks but we have options. Someone will step up and make the most of the opportunity. This is how closers are born. Bummed but not devastated.

[judyb]

I would ordinarily hate that I agree with Abraham, but when the alternative is agreeing with Cafardo, I can live with it.

[Jed Zeppelin]

I would ordinarily hate that I agree with Abraham, but when the alternative is agreeing with Cafardo, I can live with it.

I had the exact same reaction, though I'd like to immediately start drinking in hopes of forgetting I ever had to make this evil choice.

[E5 Yaz]

This correspondent believes Bobby Valentine should send Daniel Bard back to the bullpen.
Bard was supposed to be Jonathan Papelbon's heir apparent anyway. Yes, he's stretched out as a starter and you can make the case that it's not fair to him to have to go back.
But he's going back to what would be a glamorous role - not the set-up man, but the pitcher who earns saves and therefore can accrue future dollars in the process.
It would be an easy move to make.
Veteran Aaron Cook doesn't really need more time in the minors. He's ready to go right now and he would be easy to make the fifth starter. If Bard returned to the pen, Alfredo Aceves could be given his wish to be a starter.

"This correspondent"???? .... Nick has regressed to WWII radio now?

http://www.boston.co...d_daniel_b.html

[Super Nomario]

But Bedard had little to no chance of giving them what the needed*- due to fairly obvious concerns about his durability. Meanwhile guys like Bruce Chen and Brett Myers** - lesser talents who had more chance of completing the season - didn't appear to attract the Sox. In that sense it seems to fit with 941827 point in that the Bedard case is another recent example of the Sox being willing to roll the dice on durability...

*ie. surviving a stretch run
** who were reportedly available

I think this is a little bit of hindsight. At the time, the Sox didn't need a dependable innings-eater to serve as the #4 starter; they were 66-40, 2 games ahead of the Yankees, 8.5 ahead in the Wild Card (Angels), and 10.5 ahead of TB. The playoffs looked like a virtual certainty. What wasn't a certainty was who was the #3 starter in the playoffs if Buchholz didn't come back. Myers and Chen aren't that kind of guy, but a healthy Bedard (or Harden, their other target) is. If they knew how September would unfold, maybe they would target a dependable average guy, but at the time an acquisition like Bedard made sense.

[trekfan55]

I would ordinarily hate that I agree with Abraham, but when the alternative is agreeing with Cafardo, I can live with it.

Except Abraham says that they should not jerk Bard around and that wouldn't be the case here. If they decide to name him the closer it may be for the season, or the majority of it.

[joyofsox]

What a week. Cafardo is starting to make some semblance of sense to me.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

What a week. Cafardo is starting to make some semblance of sense to me.

[Plympton91]

A decision to put Daniel Bard back in the bullpen is an admission that the failure to sign Jonathan Papelbon long-term was a colossal mistake.

If closer is of secondary importance, then in no way do you waste Daniel Bard in that role. If closer is of primary importance, then in no way do you leave your payroll in such a terrible condition that you can't afford to bid the going market rate for your world class closer.

Unfortunately, the very poor anticipation of just how badly the new CBA would castrate the Red Sox revenue advantages led to extremely poor over-allocation of payroll to shiny new extraneous baubles like Lackey and Crawford when they should have been saving that money to lock up their star, dependable, high-quality, (and, if Bard must be used there) irreplaceable closer.

And, anyway, when you look at Papelbon, Reddick, McDonald vs Bailey, Sweeney, and Ross, how much are you actually saving?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And, anyway, when you look at Papelbon, Reddick, McDonald vs Bailey, Sweeney, and Ross, how much are you actually saving?

Something like $8MM in the first year, with a lower figure thereafter, but only if you assume Kalish/McDonald/Lin/Brentz won't be able to cover RF adequately after year 1.

[Sprowl]

A decision to put Daniel Bard back in the bullpen is an admission that the failure to sign Jonathan Papelbon long-term was a colossal mistake.

If closer is of secondary importance, then in no way do you waste Daniel Bard in that role. If closer is of primary importance, then in no way do you leave your payroll in such a terrible condition that you can't afford to bid the going market rate for your world class closer.

Unfortunately, the very poor anticipation of just how badly the new CBA would castrate the Red Sox revenue advantages led to extremely poor over-allocation of payroll to shiny new extraneous baubles like Lackey and Crawford when they should have been saving that money to lock up their star, dependable, high-quality, (and, if Bard must be used there) irreplaceable closer.

And, anyway, when you look at Papelbon, Reddick, McDonald vs Bailey, Sweeney, and Ross, how much are you actually saving?

Agreed that closer is not that important -- specifically, less important than any starter, even a #5 starter, and less important than a Jamesian relief ace. In 2011 Melancon saved 20 and blew 5 (in the baseball sense). That's hardly great, but it's acceptable. Among the Red Sox' young talent, Bard as a starter is still the Red Sox' best opportunity for improvement over the 2011 talent base, and has the highest ceiling outside of an Iglesias who can hit.

Based on his record of fragility, the Red Sox had to be assuming a half year's performance out of Bailey. They could still get something close to that, including, I hope, a cluster of playoff performances.

[radsoxfan]

I don't do hand surgery, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any thumb condition that would "require" surgery other than a UCL tear of the thumb, also known as Gamekeeper's or Skier's thumb. If that's the case... see you in August. At the earliest.

Ok, 2013, whatever.

Maybe Bailey is secretly a Scottish fowl hunter in the offseason? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamekeeper's_thumb

In all seriousness, I'm guessing he has a Stener lesion, a variant of UCL injury that will pretty much only heal with surgery. As DRS said, see ya in August.

Edited by radsoxfan, 03 April 2012 - 10:10 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The obvious problem is that the Sox have a ton of wasted money on the books to start the year on the DL. Lackey, Matsuzaka, Jenks, and Bailey is close to $40M that's unlikely to generate much return this season. How many pitching staffs have that much invested in injured pitchers?

It's way too early to claim that letting Papelbon go was a mistake. I mean, he hasn't pitched a game with Philly yet and we are yet to see how his replacements will perform here. And hell, it's about more than just this year.

[trekfan55]

A decision to put Daniel Bard back in the bullpen is an admission that the failure to sign Jonathan Papelbon long-term was a colossal mistake.

If closer is of secondary importance, then in no way do you waste Daniel Bard in that role. If closer is of primary importance, then in no way do you leave your payroll in such a terrible condition that you can't afford to bid the going market rate for your world class closer.

Unfortunately, the very poor anticipation of just how badly the new CBA would castrate the Red Sox revenue advantages led to extremely poor over-allocation of payroll to shiny new extraneous baubles like Lackey and Crawford when they should have been saving that money to lock up their star, dependable, high-quality, (and, if Bard must be used there) irreplaceable closer.

And, anyway, when you look at Papelbon, Reddick, McDonald vs Bailey, Sweeney, and Ross, how much are you actually saving?

I have to take issue with this. The Sox got a proven closer (yes he was not a picture of health but his injury has nothing to do with that) who happened to go down for about 4 months. Deciding that their best option is to replace him with Bard and place Aceves, Cook later, and DiceK later in his rotation spot is in no way admitting that they should have signed Papelbon.

Plus, there was no real way to anticipate the effects of the CBA deal. While I agree that the Lackey and Crawford deals are hurting the team CBA or not, to blame the FO for not planning on the CBA's effects is not fair.

The obvious problem is that the Sox have a ton of wasted money on the books to start the year on the DL. Lackey, Matsuzaka, Jenks, and Bailey is close to $40M that's unlikely to generate much return this season. How many pitching staffs have that much invested in injured pitchers?

It's way too early to claim that letting Papelbon go was a mistake. I mean, he hasn't pitched a game with Philly yet and we are yet to see how his replacements will perform here. And hell, it's about more than just this year.

This is also important. Very few closers, if any, have proven to be worth the multi year deals they are given. Let's see what Papelbon does first, and please, if he happens to have a great 2012, let's remember Pedro's 2006/7/8 (as much as it hurts to do so).

Edited by trekfan55, 03 April 2012 - 10:47 PM.

[Al Zarilla]

Better this happen now than halfway through the season. It sucks but we have options. Someone will step up and make the most of the opportunity. This is how closers are born. Bummed but not devastated.

I can't spin anything good out of this. He could get hurt again, maybe his arm, when he gets back. Remember all the same kind of talk when Schilling had the early season injury in '05 (rather have it happen now than in September?). Well, he wasn't right all year.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can't spin anything good out of this. He could get hurt again, maybe his arm, when he gets back. Remember all the same kind of talk when Schilling had the early season injury in '05 (rather have it happen now than in September?). Well, he wasn't right all year.

And the Sox won 95 that year.

I think you just made mauidono's point.

[trekfan55]

And the Sox won 95 that year.

I think you just made mauidono's point.

With an MIA Foulke (really, I still want to beat up whoever booed him), the Schilling as closer experiment, etc.

[TomRicardo]

Except Abraham says that they should not jerk Bard around and that wouldn't be the case here. If they decide to name him the closer it may be for the season, or the majority of it.

Guys don't quote PeteAbe's baseball opinions. The guy is a nitwit. If it isn't news there really isn't a reason to quote PeteAbe at all. Most likely he is getting into a hissy fit with someone on twitter.

Chances are he will steal from a post you put on here for one his articles.

I really wouldn't mind a closer by situation. If it allows you to put Aceves out for 2+ IP with a 2 or 3 run lead instead of trying to squeeze around the bottom of rotation to get to the defined closer and set up man, all the better.

Edited by TomRicardo, 04 April 2012 - 11:30 AM.

[RedOctober3829]

Guys don't quote PeteAbe's baseball opinions. The guy is a nitwit. If it isn't news there really isn't a reason to quote PeteAbe at all. Most likely he is getting into a hissy fit with someone on twitter.

Chances are he will still a post you put on here for one his articles.

I really wouldn't mind a closer by situation. If it allows you to put Aceves out for 2+ IP with a 2 or 3 run lead instead of trying to squeeze around the bottom of rotation to get to the defined closer and set up man, all the better.

Exactly. If there isn't a defined "closer" on the roster, go game-by-game depending on the matchups. Eventually, I'd like to see what Rich Hill can do in that spot.

[HillysLastWalk]

And the Sox won 95 that year.

I think you just made mauidono's point.

Which led to being 'Wild-Card Champions'. Unfortunately this year, we'll be competing with not only the Yankees but the Rays and possibly the Jays (the popular sleeper pick) - and that's just thinking about the AL East. A couple of games could mean the difference between the division, or the wild-card, or not making the wild-card at all. And of course, our usual spot as 'Wild-Card Champion' will now give us the right to say, play a one game playoff against Matt Moore or David Price or something.

That's right, I'll start sounding like a broken record, but I seem to be more concerned than most. But, hey, at least we "saved" money by not signing that ridiculous Papelbon. He and his consistently excellent performance and health! I'd rather spend it on this All-Star team of Crawford, Lackey, Dice-K, Jenks, ummm, hrmmm. Oops. Well, at least we didn't overpay!!

(not directed specifically at you, just in general)

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 04 April 2012 - 10:56 AM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Which led to being 'Wild-Card Champions'. Unfortunately this year, we'll be competing with not only the Yankees but the Rays and possibly the Jays (the popular sleeper pick) - and that's just thinking about the AL East. A couple of games could mean the difference between the division, or the wild-card, or not making the wild-card at all. And of course, our usual spot as 'Wild-Card Champion' will now give us the right to say, play a one game playoff against Matt Moore or David Price or something.

That's right, I'll start sounding like a broken record, but I seem to be more concerned than most. But, hey, at least we "saved" money by not signing that ridiculous Papelbon. He and his consistently excellent performance and health! I'd rather spend it on this All-Star team of Crawford, Lackey, Dice-K, Jenks, ummm, hrmmm. Oops. Well, at least we didn't overpay!!

(not directed specifically at you, just in general)

Papelbon's performance was not consistently excellent. His 2010 season was okay for a closer and no better. As to his health, his velocity had noticeable variation within and between seasons and he was the guy who somehow dislocated his shoulder throwing a pitch in 2006, wasn't he? Everything wasn't perfect on the good ship Papelbon.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Papelbon's performance was not consistently excellent. His 2010 season was okay for a closer and no better. As to his health, his velocity had noticeable variation within and between seasons and he was the guy who somehow dislocated his shoulder throwing a pitch in 2006, wasn't he? Everything wasn't perfect on the good ship Papelbon.

Yup, and by virtue of the fact that it happened on September 1 and they were out of the playoff race, they shut him down but didn't bother to put him on the DL. So his record appears unblemished, but in truth he did miss a month of a season with an injury. An injury that first led them to try to put him in the rotation then led to them treating him with kid gloves in terms of usage for the next few years. They treated his shoulder like a ticking time bomb and survived. Hopefully for the Philies, they do the same.

[HillysLastWalk]

Papelbon's performance was not consistently excellent. His 2010 season was okay for a closer and no better. As to his health, his velocity had noticeable variation within and between seasons and he was the guy who somehow dislocated his shoulder throwing a pitch in 2006, wasn't he? Everything wasn't perfect on the good ship Papelbon.

Maybe. I mean, I did mention the shoulder issue up-thread (don't want to get in the habit of mentioning it everytime). I'll grant you that. But, 2006 was a long time ago and seems more like an aberration more than anything else. Would you not agree?

And you are right, 2010 was OK. But damn, every other year was excellent to ridiculous. Last year he had an 8.7 K/BB ratio and he K'd 12.2 batters. Even Rivera has had "off" years, and I wouldn't hesitate to say that he has been consistently excellent. Looking at Papelbon's worst year: In 2010 (age 29), Papelbon had a 2.71 K/BB ratio and he K'd 10.2. Focusing just on K/BB ratio, Mariano has had lower ratio's in the following years: 1998 (age 28) and 2000 (age 30). We won't compare K rate because Mariano isn't the strikeout pitcher Papelbon is.

In other words, I admit, there might have been some slight exaggeration, but I don't think the nit-picks should take away from my overall point.

(EDIT)

In comparison, they trade a Reddick for Bailey. Has he ever had a healthy year in the majors? Or they give 12M to Jenks. What about Jenks health history and fitness program made that investment ideal? What did Papbelbon sign for 4/52M? Would you all have been OK with a 4/40M deal? Well, then don't sign Jenks and take that 12M and give it to Papblbon (bringint it to 4/52M). It also makes me wonder about their thoughts in regards to pitcher's health. Do they care? Well, of course they do. But, do they think their shoulder strengthening programs or whatever else they do is enough to lessen concerns? Because Papelbon strikes me as someone in tip-top shape. And as I mentioned, 2006 was a long time ago. It just seemed they were more focused on the money aspect of it.

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 04 April 2012 - 11:57 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Which led to being 'Wild-Card Champions'. Unfortunately this year, we'll be competing with not only the Yankees but the Rays and possibly the Jays (the popular sleeper pick) - and that's just thinking about the AL East. A couple of games could mean the difference between the division, or the wild-card, or not making the wild-card at all. And of course, our usual spot as 'Wild-Card Champion' will now give us the right to say, play a one game playoff against Matt Moore or David Price or something.

That's right, I'll start sounding like a broken record, but I seem to be more concerned than most. But, hey, at least we "saved" money by not signing that ridiculous Papelbon. He and his consistently excellent performance and health! I'd rather spend it on this All-Star team of Crawford, Lackey, Dice-K, Jenks, ummm, hrmmm. Oops. Well, at least we didn't overpay!!

(not directed specifically at you, just in general)

I do find I've become surprisingly optimistic about the season ahead. That's developed as the immediate core of the team -- which I see as the top five hitters and the top three starters -- kept trucking through spring training pretty much healthy.

If one of those eight guys goes down in the first half with a long-term injury, I agree it will be really tough to keep up with the rest of the pack. The AL East is a competitive division, but I can't be bothered to worry about that. Because it would have been that way even if Papelbon were still here. Or if Oswalt had been signed. Or if Bailey was guaranteed to be healthy all year.

Because even if the Sox don't make the playoffs, or they get eliminated in the play-in game, I think this group will be more exponentially more fun to watch than last year's team.

Maybe I'm thinking that way only because the realization hit that I won't have to see even one Lackey start this year, but even as shallow as that may be, I'm okay with it.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The obvious problem is that the Sox have a ton of wasted money on the books to start the year on the DL. Lackey, Matsuzaka, Jenks, and Bailey is close to $40M that's unlikely to generate much return this season. How many pitching staffs have that much invested in injured pitchers?

It's way too early to claim that letting Papelbon go was a mistake. I mean, he hasn't pitched a game with Philly yet and we are yet to see how his replacements will perform here. And hell, it's about more than just this year.

It could have been worse if the Sox signed Ryan Madson.

If the FO gets dinged for Bailey, doesn't it credit for avoiding Madson? Or perhaps we are still at the stage where our ability to predict injuries is rather limited?

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I respect your opinion that you think Aceves is a better pitcher than I do. All I ask is one question: What would you project his BABIP to be going forward?

I believe hiis career worst BABIP is .249. Historically he has been well below league average. It's not to say that it won't spike to .350, but I wouldn't count on it.

[trekfan55]

Which led to being 'Wild-Card Champions'. Unfortunately this year, we'll be competing with not only the Yankees but the Rays and possibly the Jays (the popular sleeper pick) - and that's just thinking about the AL East. A couple of games could mean the difference between the division, or the wild-card, or not making the wild-card at all. And of course, our usual spot as 'Wild-Card Champion' will now give us the right to say, play a one game playoff against Matt Moore or David Price or something.

That's right, I'll start sounding like a broken record, but I seem to be more concerned than most. But, hey, at least we "saved" money by not signing that ridiculous Papelbon. He and his consistently excellent performance and health! I'd rather spend it on this All-Star team of Crawford, Lackey, Dice-K, Jenks, ummm, hrmmm. Oops. Well, at least we didn't overpay!!

(not directed specifically at you, just in general)

The Sox finished the season tied with the MFY for the AL East (Interesting that a Schilling blown save during his closer experiment stage is what might have made the difference). They were given the WC spot because the MFY beat them in the H2H matchup (and the White Sox beat Cleveland so the Yanks and Red Sox were definitely going in to the playoffs).

Had that happened today it would have been worse, as the MFY and Sox would have to play one game to determine the division winner and the loser would have gone on to play Cleveland. But maybe in that case the Sox make the extra effort to win one more game.

[RingoOSU]

Basically what it came down to was a home run by roiding Jason Giambi off an otherwise masterful Tim Wakefield 8 inning, 3 hit, 12 strikeout start in which he lost a 1-0 duel to Randy Johnson. Win that game, the sox win the East outright.

[trekfan55]

Basically what it came down to was a home run by roiding Jason Giambi off an otherwise masterful Tim Wakefield 8 inning, 3 hit, 12 strikeout start in which he lost a 1-0 duel to Randy Johnson. Win that game, the sox win the East outright.

Not to nitpick, but a Schilling blown save, another blown save in Detroit, and Foulke's blown save vs Cleveland (his last game before he was officially sidelined). Win any of those 3 (which the Sox were leading heading into the 9th) and it's 96 wins and the division. That is easier to call than overcoming a complete game shutout to Randy Johnson.

[RingoOSU]

I guess I'm just sore because in 2005, the entire AL was beating the snot out of the big unit except for the sox.

[aron7awol]

I believe hiis career worst BABIP is .249. Historically he has been well below league average. It's not to say that it won't spike to .350, but I wouldn't count on it.

You didn't answer my question. If you're saying it will be somewhere between .249 and .350, then I would say "No shit." What is the single number that you think is most likely?

Edit: FWIW, my projection would be around .280

Edited by aron7awol, 04 April 2012 - 11:24 PM.

[kieckeredinthehead]

You didn't answer my question. If you're saying it will be somewhere between .249 and .350, then I would say "No shit." What is the single number that you think is most likely?

Edit: FWIW, my projection would be around .280

So you think Aceves has some BABIP-suppression skill?

[aron7awol]

So you think Aceves has some BABIP-suppression skill?

No, not really. That .280 projection is as a reliever. I just took a quick look at the average BABIP among qualified relievers in the last two seasons, and it was about .280.

[Clears Cleaver]

Losing Bailey for three months is what, losing 30IP and maybe 22 high leverage IP? And honestly, if this team is going to win anything, they need a healthy and strong Bailey in September and October. This is not a catastrophe by any means.

But, they have to find another starter, be it DiceK, Oswalt, etc.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Losing Bailey for three months is what, losing 30IP and maybe 22 high leverage IP? And honestly, if this team is going to win anything, they need a healthy and strong Bailey in September and October. This is not a catastrophe by any means.

But, they have to find another starter, be it DiceK, Oswalt, etc.

Cook should be ready before May 1. Matsuzaka before June 15.

Padilla-Morales-Melancon-Aceves just need to hold the line until then.

[nvalvo]

Losing Bailey for three months is what, losing 30IP and maybe 22 high leverage IP? And honestly, if this team is going to win anything, they need a healthy and strong Bailey in September and October. This is not a catastrophe by any means.

You're right, and Bailey would not have been able to win today's game by himself. He'd have helped, no doubt, but even if he'd wriggled out of that inning, we were going to need to both score again and get through Cabrera and Fielder again to win. How many outs could Bailey have gotten? Padilla, Melancon and Aceves were all ineffective, and it'll be pretty tough to win unless they do a better job going forward.

Bottom line is that we don't have the pen to win a ton of close games, with or without Bailey. The offense needs to provide a sufficient cushion to make a great start like Lester's hold up, and I think they will do that pretty frequently in games not started by one J. Verlander.

edited to add: Morales looked great tonight, making Fielder look silly. We shouldn't overlook him.

Edited by nvalvo, 05 April 2012 - 10:14 PM.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

This guy seems like an asshole...

http://www.weei.com/...rox-four-months

#humblebrag

[absintheofmalaise]

You think Speier could have found an actual hand specialist instead of a random ortho to talk to.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

You think Speier could have found an actual hand specialist instead of a random ortho to talk to.

Seriously. I'm nothing if not random.

Although I'm glad you're acknowledging that I'm not a hand specialist. Because f THAT...

[Dogman2]

Seriously. I'm nothing if not random.

Although I'm glad you're acknowledging that I'm not a hand specialist. Because f THAT...

Nice work. How were you approached?