193 replies to this topic

[rembrat]

Yes because all thumb surgery is the same. Also I am not sure when Bailey will ever pick up a bat again,..

I bet you felt silly when you finished scrolling down and saw my most recent post. But thank you for pointing out the obvious.

[Plympton91]

Using Padilla's most recent season starting in Los Angeles and EV's formula, Padilla comes out right in the range of Melancon and Aceves. Plus, Padilla was 3-3 in save opps for LA last September (someone keeps saying the opposite, but he was healthy to end the season). So, maybe Padilla gets the 2- and 3-run 9th inning holds.

Or, my less reasoned reaction is, after reading about how unreliable all the other options are after adjustiong for luck and karma, "Ben, Roy Oswalt on line 2."

[Doctor G]

Isn't Aceves greatest skill his rubber arm, his ability to throw 3 innings one day, and still pitch the next day? If he's to be used as a closer, he'll pitch a lot fewer innings, who picks those up?

I'm shocked no one has mentioned the dreaded "bullpen by committee", or talked about a trade for K-Rod.

Aceves bounceback ability would be one reason to use him as a closer. I could see Bobby using Aceves as a more than 1 inning closer as the situation dictated. He could mix and match Morales and Melancon in the set-up role based on match-ups, and have Aceves available to clean up any messes in the 8th, and then pitch the 9th. I would be a lot more confident in Aceves cleaning up after Melancon, than the other way around.

[Clears Cleaver]

Ravech just tweeted that if Bailey needs surgery, he'll be out three months.

This front office has been such a collection of fail the last four years its scary

[Rudy Pemberton]

Ravech just tweeted that if Bailey needs surgery, he'll be out three months.

This front office has been such a collection of fail the last four years its scary

Because they should have known that he'd be involved in a freak ST collision and unable to pitch.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Using Padilla's most recent season starting in Los Angeles and EV's formula, Padilla comes out right in the range of Melancon and Aceves. Plus, Padilla was 3-3 in save opps for LA last September (someone keeps saying the opposite, but he was healthy to end the season). So, maybe Padilla gets the 2- and 3-run 9th inning holds.

Or, my less reasoned reaction is, after reading about how unreliable all the other options are after adjustiong for luck and karma, "Ben, Roy Oswalt on line 2."

If we believe the reports to be true, the Sox have offered Oswalt a contract, and he decided he'd rather not play. Has that changed?

[NickEsasky]

Because they should have known that he'd be involved in a freak ST collision and unable to pitch.

Show me where he hits his thumb in that collision. There is no way that is how he got hurt.

[SoxScout]

It really sucks if it was in the collision, it was pretty bad (I called it getting trucked). I believe they had just just pulled Gonzalez, Gomez was at 1B and fucked up a ball hit directly at him, which led to the collision.

Edited by SoxScout, 03 April 2012 - 11:02 AM.

[trekfan55]

Show me where he hits his thumb in that collision. There is no way that is how he got hurt.

Unless he was hurt at the time of the trade there is no reason we can blame this on FO ineptitude.

[941827]

Ravech just tweeted that if Bailey needs surgery, he'll be out three months.

This front office has been such a collection of fail the last four years its scary

Here's a theory: when they acquired Beckett, there were serious concerns about the soundness of this shoulder. Whoever did the deal decided he was worth the risk and it worked out extremely well. Since then, they've repeatedly acquired pitchers with similarly troubling injury histories, claiming that the Sox had a best-in-class way of promoting pitcher health (I'm thinking of Aceves, Jenks, Lackey, Bedard and Bailey). These aren't pitchers that have typical wear-and-tear, they're pitchers with well-established injury concerns. I wonder if the FO got lucky with Beckett (and Aceves, for that matter) and now feels comfortable rolling the dice on pitchers with questionable health. Perhaps that approach should be reconsidered, at least when paying a high price for pitcher acquisitions (i.e,. Jenks, Lackey and Bailey).

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Here's a theory: when they acquired Beckett, there were serious concerns about the soundness of this shoulder. Whoever did the deal decided he was worth the risk and it worked out extremely well. Since then, they've repeatedly acquired pitchers with similarly troubling injury histories, claiming that the Sox had a best-in-class way of promoting pitcher health (I'm thinking of Aceves, Jenks, Lackey, Bedard and Bailey). These aren't pitchers that have typical wear-and-tear, they're pitchers with well-established injury concerns. I wonder if the FO got lucky with Beckett (and Aceves, for that matter) and now feels comfortable rolling the dice on pitchers with questionable health. Perhaps that approach should be reconsidered, at least when paying a high price for pitcher acquisitions (i.e,. Jenks, Lackey and Bailey).

I wouldn't throw Bedard into that group, given he was acquired for very little for a stretch run and as a short-timer. And given that the Sox were deciding between Bedard and Harden, it appears they made the right choice in that case.

Actually, I wouldn't quite throw Lackey in there either. The concerns regarding Lackey were around his degrading rate stats, but he had been pretty damn durable in his career up to the point where the Sox signed him. And in his first year here he made 33 starts and threw 215 innings. It all came apart last year as the injury badly affected his stuff, but it's not like this guy was missing a dozen or more starts each year. The miss on Lackey was one of quality, not injury history.

[Bdanahy14]

This front office has been such a collection of fail the last four years its scary

I actually think they have put themselves in at least a manageable position by also bringing on Melancon. Realistically, evan without Bailey - they have the option of Bard/Aceves/Melancon to close with the other being a set up man.

I tend to agree with the camp that Aceves closes and Melancon takes the set up. Although, Melancon strikes out 1.6 more per 9.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

PeteAbe update to the glob-blog:

Two sources tell the Globe that Beckett was cleared to pitch on Monday by Dr. Mark Bagg, a specialist in Texas. The visit to Dr. Graham is simply a precaution. Barring the unexpected, Beckett will start against the Tigers on Friday.

Good news thus far on Beckett, and no news on Bailey -- given the alternatives, I'll take that for now.

Hopefully Beckett's only up there to apologize to Bailey for the WWE-style thumb-wrestling takedown.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Actually, I wouldn't quite throw Lackey in there either. The concerns regarding Lackey were around his degrading rate stats, but he had been pretty damn durable in his career up to the point where the Sox signed him. And in his first year here he made 33 starts and threw 215 innings. It all came apart last year as the injury badly affected his stuff, but it's not like this guy was missing a dozen or more starts each year. The miss on Lackey was one of quality, not injury history.

If injury history wasn't a concern, how do you explain the 2015 ML minimum clause? Just because a guy hasn't missed significant time yet, that doesn't mean he isn't considered a risk to.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If injury history wasn't a concern, how do you explain the 2015 ML minimum clause? Just because a guy hasn't missed significant time yet, that doesn't mean he isn't considered a risk to.

I absolutely agree. Much like with JD Drew's shoulder -- there was more than enough smoke in the medical records to plan for a fire sometime during the contract.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If injury history wasn't a concern, how do you explain the 2015 ML minimum clause? Just because a guy hasn't missed significant time yet, that doesn't mean he isn't considered a risk to.

I suspect it was a protection clause, since the eternal truth is that all pitchers get hurt.

His actual track record was pretty good in terms of staying healthy.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

I suspect it was a protection clause, since the eternal truth is that all pitchers get hurt.

His actual track record was pretty good in terms of staying healthy.

Lackey averaged 33 GS and about 210 IP from 2002 - 2007. Then in 2008 he dropped to 24 GS and 163.1 IP as he missed the first 41 games of the season due to triceps tendinitis. In 2009 he had 27 GS and 171.1 IP as he missed the first 34 games of the season with elbow tightness. I recall being mildly concerned about this at the time he was acquired.

Edited by Bucknahs Bum Ankle, 03 April 2012 - 11:38 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Lackey averaged 33 GS and about 210 IP from 2002 - 2007. Then in 2008 he dropped to 24 GS and 163.1 IP as he missed the first 41 games of the season due to triceps tendinitis. In 2009 he had 27 GS and 171.1 IP as he missed the first 34 games of the season with elbow tightness. I recall being mildly concerned about this at the time he was acquired.

Right, but he then led the staff with 215 innings in 2010. Such a non-pitching clause like the one they put into his contract made sense, but it didn't make it a bad injury risk, or at least not worse than any other pitcher they could have signed. When you delve into this side of the pitching market, injuries are always a concern no matter what the pitcher's history is.

[judyb]

They looked at the MRI of his elbow and knew it was a risk, and it was a risk they were obviously willing to take with the extra year tacked on to replace the year he was likely to miss to TJS. I'm not sure who to blame for the stupidity of allowing him to keep pitching for an entire season when the elbow had clearly gotten bad enough that he sucked.

[SoxScout]

Gordon Edes

VBobby V tells reporters that Bailey will be out a while, does not say who his closer will be, cuz hasnt spoken to player

[Corsi]

Bailey out for what sounds like months

https://twitter.com/#!/MikeSilvermanBB/status/187219647706304512

[NickEsasky]

Unless he was hurt at the time of the trade there is no reason we can blame this on FO ineptitude.

I am not trying to blame it on ineptitude at all. I think it's a cover-up not incompetence.

[nvalvo]

Actually, I wouldn't quite throw Lackey in there either. The concerns regarding Lackey were around his degrading rate stats, but he had been pretty damn durable in his career up to the point where the Sox signed him. And in his first year here he made 33 starts and threw 215 innings. It all came apart last year as the injury badly affected his stuff, but it's not like this guy was missing a dozen or more starts each year. The miss on Lackey was one of quality, not injury history.

Not true.

Bucknah's Bum Ankle detailed the history of elbow issues in Anaheim, but I'm also not sure how you think you can analytically separate quality from health. Even if you believe the questionable assertion that Lackey's poor performance in 2011 is totally unrelated to the elbow surgery he's had since, I can't see what possible evidence you could have to support that.

Back on topic: it's a shame about Bailey's thumb, but honestly, if these things have to happen, it's better that they happen early in the year. Not only do we have more depth before the guys on mL deals can opt out, we have time to get everyone ready for the stretch run. That said, this is going to be a tight race, and the injuries to Beckett and Bailey have me a bit anxious. The offense will really have to carry this team.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Not true.

Bucknah's Bum Ankle detailed the history of elbow issues in Anaheim, but I'm also not sure how you think you can analytically separate quality from health. Even if you believe the questionable assertion that Lackey's poor performance in 2011 is totally unrelated to the elbow surgery he's had since, I can't see what possible evidence you could have to support that.

Where did I or anyone else say that? Of course his 2011 was ruined by elbow issues.

Pitchers can decline in quality without major health problems, of course: guys get older, they can't snap the fastball in there quite as hard any more, etc. The gradual erosion of Lackey's K/BB rate started when he was in his prime age of 28 and was working downwards since then, just like the peak of any player's career.

[SoxScout]

MikeSilvermanBB
Cherington on Bailey: Won't be available Opening Day, no update from Cleveland yet, not a bone injury

[Corsi]

So it's probably ligament damage? Which, in my uneducated estimation, is probably much worse than bone damage.

[Corsi]

Told that if Andrew Bailey does need surgery, it's expected he would miss three to four months

https://twitter.com/#!/Sean_McAdam/status/187229374225981440

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

How can you blame the front office whatsoever when the next most likely option at closer was to sign FA Ryan Madson? Look where he is right now..... I prefer Bailey's thumb to Madson's elbow.

Of course there are people who in hindsight say they should have re-signed Paps, but that Philly contract is batshit crazy money and the sox netted two draft picks. So I'd still let Paps walk even in hindsight...

I think you give Bard a month to see if he can be a top line starter if by May he's struggling/worse than average you call up Cook to start and slide Bard in as closer.... Till then you make due with Morales, Aceves, Melancon whoever has the hot hand.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 03 April 2012 - 12:33 PM.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.

It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly lower BABIP.

Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.

I know it's blasphemous, but a few of us watch the games and watch Aceves as a person as opposed to a line of numbers. Numbers tell quite a bit, but not everything.

[Rasputin]

I know it's blasphemous, but a few of us watch the games and watch Aceves as a person as opposed to a line of numbers. Numbers tell quite a bit, but not everything.

I hope it doesn't hurt too much when I tell you that WE ALL watch the games and watch Aceves as a person and the simple reality is that the numbers tell the truth and your eyes and your impressions will lie to you repeatedly.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I hope it doesn't hurt too much when I tell you that WE ALL watch the games and watch Aceves as a person and the simple reality is that the numbers tell the truth and your eyes and your impressions will lie to you repeatedly.

My eyes tell me that Aceves is a crazy mo-fo more than willing to throw a little chin-music. This is no lie.

The numbers tell me that The Closer™ is overrated in general, and that holding a lead over one clean inning doesn't call for the best pitcher. This is also no lie.

I don't see where the contradiction lies.

[HillysLastWalk]

How can you blame the front office whatsoever when the next most likely option at closer was to sign FA Ryan Madson? Look where he is right now..... I prefer Bailey's thumb to Madson's elbow.

Of course there are people who in hindsight say they should have re-signed Paps, but that Philly contract is batshit crazy money and the sox netted two draft picks. So I'd still let Paps walk even in hindsight...

I think you give Bard a month to see if he can be a top line starter if by May he's struggling/worse than average you call up Cook to start and slide Bard in as closer.... Till then you make due with Morales, Aceves, Melancon whoever has the hot hand.

Something I've been thinking about (more in general, not necessarily directed at you):

What value is there in a 'closer' (or relief pitcher or pitcher) that is generally healthy every year? Sure, we didn't overpay for Papelbon, but we just replaced him with someone who is going to start the season on the disabled list. Fluke? Sure. But, at the same time, has this guy had a year where he hasn't been hurt? Maybe you overpay for a Papelbon, who has been stellar performance-wise and health-wise (ignoring the 2006 shoulder issue). An overpay wouldn't be that bad if we didn't have, say, Carl Crawford's contract on the books (what picks did we give up there?). Look at the Yankees. I'm sure they know they are 'overpaying' for Rivera, but every damn year you are guaranteed to have excellent performance at the end of the game. They never have to think about it.

And I know that there is sentiment similar to what Peter Abraham just mentioned:

Andrew Bailey's injury is troubling, no doubt. But the Cardinals won the World Series last season with Jason Motte as their closer. You know how many career saves he had at this point last season? Three.

But, let me point out the difference. This year, going forward, there are two wild-card teams that have to play a one game playoff. In other words, a couple of extra blown games that happen now, in April or May or whatever, could lead to a wild-card slot as opposed to a division title.

Just throwing some stuff out there ...

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 03 April 2012 - 12:53 PM.

[941827]

How can you blame the front office whatsoever when the next most likely option at closer was to sign FA Ryan Madson? Look where he is right now..... I prefer Bailey's thumb to Madson's elbow.

False dichotomy. They could have handed Melancon the job, used Scutaro and the guys they traded for Bailey for a better-quality arm (closer or otherwise) without Bailey's injury history, or just picked a random current reliever and dubbed him the "closer."

[Corsi]

False dichotomy. They could have handed Melancon the job, used Scutaro and the guys they traded for Bailey for a better-quality arm (closer or otherwise) without Bailey's injury history, or just picked a random current reliever and dubbed him the "closer."

Is this thumb injury at all related to his previous injury history? Seems like nothing more than shit luck to me.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Is this thumb injury at all related to his previous injury history? Seems like nothing more than shit luck to me.

Challenging Josh F. Beckett to a thumb-war on the eve of WrestleMania is not shit luck...

Seriously, though -- there is an I'm-with-stupid story out there which I hope never comes out.

[Laser Show]

I wouldn't throw Bedard into that group, given he was acquired for very little for a stretch run and as a short-timer. And given that the Sox were deciding between Bedard and Harden, it appears they made the right choice in that case.

Actually, I wouldn't quite throw Lackey in there either. The concerns regarding Lackey were around his degrading rate stats, but he had been pretty damn durable in his career up to the point where the Sox signed him. And in his first year here he made 33 starts and threw 215 innings. It all came apart last year as the injury badly affected his stuff, but it's not like this guy was missing a dozen or more starts each year. The miss on Lackey was one of quality, not injury history.

I don't have time to look for the quote, but I distinctly remember reading on Extra Bases last month that Lackey said the elbow had been hurting for two years.

I think I posted it on here at some point, but I'll look around again later.

EDIT: That was easy. Found it:

Lackey said he pitched in pain for two years.

Edited by Laser Show, 03 April 2012 - 01:20 PM.

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Ryan Sweeney to salvage the trade...

[joyofsox]

Seriously, though -- there is an I'm-with-stupid story out there which I hope never comes out.

"Yeah, a couple days later [after March 25], he was squeezing some shampoo, and said man, my thumb was sore." - Bob McClure on Andrew Bailey
https://twitter.com/#!/EvanDrellich/status/186570530088960002

The first time I read this, I thought he hurt himself getting some shampoo.

[rembrat]

Is this thumb injury at all related to his previous injury history? Seems like nothing more than shit luck to me.

For guys like Bailey nothing seems to be out of the question. Sore lat this spring. Strained forearm last spring. Elbow and knee surgery the previous 2 years. He makes JD look like Lou Gehrig.

[Rasputin]

I don't have time to look for the quote, but I distinctly remember reading on Extra Bases last month that Lackey said the elbow had been hurting for two years.

I think I posted it on here at some point, but I'll look around again later.

EDIT: That was easy. Found it:

Let's just get next year's discussion off to a start now. Lackey's going to be back to his Anaheim form and we're going to win 125 games.

[Corsi]

According to a major league source, the injury sustained by Andrew Bailey is believed to involve the UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) in the pitcher's thumb.

Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez was sidelined by a UCL injury in August, 2010, missing the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery. Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia also experienced the ailment, and subsequent procedure, leading into the offseason following the '10 season.

“We think he suffered when he was in a collision at Bradenton when he covered first and collided with Alex Presley and he fell," Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington told reporters Tuesday afternoon in Washington, D.C.

"At the time he didn’t think anything of it but then started to experience some soreness shortly after that and then went back and looked at the video and he definitely landed on his thumb so he’s never had any thumb soreness before that so we don’t know for sure but it seems possible that’s what did it. Anytime you have more of an acute injury, we have to get to the bottom of how bad it is and whether it can be managed conservatively or not."

http://www.weei.com/...ved-involve-ucl

[trekfan55]

DRS was right. We'll see him in August.

Now let's see what solution Bobby V brings since it's not a patchwork anymore.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Just heard a report come over the radio (ESPN 97.9 or whatever the new one in ct) that Bailey will miss 6 to 8 weeks per update anchor.........

seems generic said a ligament injury in lower right thumb

[aron7awol]

I know it's blasphemous, but a few of us watch the games and watch Aceves as a person as opposed to a line of numbers. Numbers tell quite a bit, but not everything.

I respect your opinion that you think Aceves is a better pitcher than I do. All I ask is one question: What would you project his BABIP to be going forward?

[aron7awol]

But, let me point out the difference. This year, going forward, there are two wild-card teams that have to play a one game playoff. In other words, a couple of extra blown games that happen now, in April or May or whatever, could lead to a wild-card slot as opposed to a division title.

And in previous years, those same couple of extra blown games could lead to missing the playoffs as opposed to a division title or wild card spot.

[SoxScout]

@ScottLauber

#RedSox announce Andrew Bailey will have surgery Wed. in Cleveland to reconstruct ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb

[Corsi]

#RedSox announce Andrew Bailey will have surgery Wed. in Cleveland to reconstruct ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb

https://twitter.com/#!/ScottLauber/status/187301642851450880

[mikeford]

McAdam just posted the same. 3-4 months recovery time.

Barf.

[soxfan121]

Bright side: Bailey will be fresh for the stretch run and it's like trading for TWO pitchers (Daisuke & Bailey)!

Medium side: If Bailey was only going to be good for 30-40 innings, I'd rather have them in August, September & October.

Dark side: Best on-paper acquisition in awful off-season doesn't make it out of ST.

[kazuneko]

I wouldn't throw Bedard into that group, given he was acquired for very little for a stretch run and as a short-timer. And given that the Sox were deciding between Bedard and Harden, it appears they made the right choice in that case.

But Bedard had little to no chance of giving them what the needed*- due to fairly obvious concerns about his durability. Meanwhile guys like Bruce Chen and Brett Myers** - lesser talents who had more chance of completing the season - didn't appear to attract the Sox. In that sense it seems to fit with 941827 point in that the Bedard case is another recent example of the Sox being willing to roll the dice on durability...

*ie. surviving a stretch run
** who were reportedly available

Edited by kazuneko, 03 April 2012 - 05:32 PM.