193 replies to this topic

[cornwalls@6]

Is there any chance that Bard gets moved to Closer and Ace takes his spot in the rotation, assuming the worst re: Bailey? Would this make people (SoSH people, not organization people) more comfortable than handing the closer job to Melancon or Aceves? I'm interested to see what folks think.

Would like to see that scenario play out, if indeed Bailey requires surgery and is out for an extended stretch. In the short term Ace would likely be reasonably functional closing out games, but ultimately wouldn't someone with a better K-rate than either of those two be preferable?? Not sure the FO would want to upset Bard's apple-cart re becoming a starter, but it would seem logical to move the guy, who not too long ago, was thought to be Pap's in-house successor.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

A thumb injury is going to sideline him for a significant chunk of time? I realize he has a history of injuries, but his thumb? Who saw that coming? I'm gonna go ahead and file this under shit luck. Hopefully he'll just miss a few weeks.

As an aside, I just spent 15 minutes trying to find a website that lists a player's entire injury history and came up with nothing. Either the internet has been expunged of any and all listings of injuries to MLB players, or I'm failing at google. I'm gonna assume I'm failing at google, so can someone help me out?

[Jnai]

As an aside, I just spent 15 minutes trying to find a website that lists a player's entire injury history and came up with nothing. Either the internet has been expunged of any and all listings of injuries to MLB players, or I'm failing at google. I'm gonna assume I'm failing at google, so can someone help me out?

Baseball Prospectus.

[trekfan55]

In a perfect world, this is what I would want to see. But the Sox have kind of cornered themselves by committing so heavily to Bard in the rotation. Plus, when Bailey does come back, where would you put him?

This season is going to be very, very interesting.

This will really depend on Bailey's prognosis. If he's scheduled to be out a really long time then they might have to shake things up. I do not think they will shift Bard to the closer's role if Bailey will miss a week, or even a month.

Edit: A little late to the party I see.

Edited by trekfan55, 02 April 2012 - 04:59 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Baseball Prospectus.

Thank you.

[Laser Show]

This will really depend on Bailey's prognosis. If he's scheduled to be out a really long time then they might have to shake things up. I do not think they will shift Bard to the closer's role if Bailey will miss a week, or even a month.

Edit: A little late to the party I see.

I don't think so either... but what if we're looking at a post-ASB return? Does Melancon close for 4 months or do you yank Bard back to the pen and deal with that in August?

[Sprowl]

I follow your logic, but wouldn't we see examples in history of these types of pitchers? Think of the prototypical guys who match each of these descriptions and look at their career BABIP.

Some examples:
Wakefield .274
Pedro .279
Lowe .295
Halladay .292
Johan .275

This article explains how SIERA tries to project BABIP based on the pitcher's peripherals rather than assuming the pitcher has no control over BABIP:
http://www.baseballp...articleid=12581

I don't dispute that Aceves may have some skill to suppress BABIP slightly, but better than anyone else who's ever pitched? I just don't see it. To be clear, I don't even expect Matt Cain to be able to sustain his .265 BABIP going forward. And like I said in my previous post, even if you think Aceves can suppress BABIP to that level, he still doesn't project as a great pitcher. There's no way he should be getting higher leverage innings than a healthy Bailey and/or Melancon.

Has he really? At 240 career IP, he's only a smidge more than a full-time starter spending one year (let's say 32 starts) in the rotation.

If Felix Doubront kept his rates the same and threw 200 IP this year with a .235 BABIP would that be a big enough sample to show the same thing?

Whether BABIP-suppression exists as a skill is interesting and hard to resolve. There have been a few threads on the question in prior years, and I don't want to repeat those. My hunch is that Aceves has something interesting, that he's not alone in having it, and that he's lucky as well. I wouldn't expect him to repeat a .235 BABIP, but it wouldn't surprise me to find that he could keep BABIP down to .275 -- not nearly as astonishing as his 2011 performance or his career, but still a useful skill.

Here is a Fangraphs table of the 370 pitchers from 2000 to 2011 that pitched 240+ innings, sorted by BABIP. The first two pages (out of 13 total) probably have some BABIP-suppression skill, although in many cases it comes at the expense of a low GB%. In other words, they avoid giving up groundball singles, but at the risk of giving up more home runs because they give up so many flyballs.

In general, I think there is not necessarily a simple connection between high whiff rates and weak contact, and that some pitchers can generate one without the other. Not many, to be sure, and in some cases those few have simply been lucky over a relatively short period. I would expect Aceves to revert toward the major-league mean, but not to get all the way there. One of the quirks in his favor is the absence of a platoon split. It's rare to see a RHP with his 10 o'clock arm slot who can handle lefties so well. The post-2010 Beckett is another one, and both of them seem to accomplish it by generous use of the cutter and fading changeups to keep lefties from getting the solid part of the bat on the ball.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think so either... but what if we're looking at a post-ASB return? Does Melancon close for 4 months or do you yank Bard back to the pen and deal with that in August?

I think you go with Melancon as long as he's doing the job effectively. If that's all season, it's all season. But if he's blowing saves left and right by the time May 1 or June 1 rolls around, then maybe you look at Bard as the answer. No reason to rush Bard out of the rotation until it's absolutely necessary.

There's also the option of using Padilla to close. He picked up 3 saves and 5 holds in relief for the Dodgers last spring before he got hurt.

[dauber23]

How about Cook to the rotation, with Bard closing and Aceves and Melancon setting up?

[StuckOnYouk]

Let the record show that April starts with Reddick leading the league in HR's while our new closer has surgery on his pitching thumb because of a spring training grounder. This team and its ridiculous injuries, dear god.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I think you go with Melancon as long as he's doing the job effectively. If that's all season, it's all season. But if he's blowing saves left and right by the time May 1 or June 1 rolls around, then maybe you look at Bard as the answer. No reason to rush Bard out of the rotation until it's absolutely necessary.

There's also the option of using Padilla to close. He picked up 3 saves and 5 holds in relief for the Dodgers last spring before he got hurt.

This is where I am. Melancon has closed in the past, and with Bard possibly needed in the rotation the whole year I'd prefer they use Melancon in the role first if at all possible. Aceves took names and kicked ass in the middle/multi-inning/setup role last year; I don't see why they wouldn't put him back in that role again instead of having him close.

The post-Papelbon era is getting off to a lousy start.

[dynomite]

Aceves took names and kicked ass in the middle/multi-inning/setup role last year; I don't see why they wouldn't put him back in that role again instead of having him close.

And was apparently the first option in case Beckett was unable to make his first start(s) this season, which indicates that the team wants him to remain a spot starter.

It's basically between Melancon and Padilla, and I expect Melancon to get the nod because of Padilla's ability to go multiple innings (wasted as a traditional closer) and Melancon's experience in the role.

[Rasputin]

Let the record show that April starts with Reddick leading the league in HR's while our new closer has surgery on his pitching thumb because of a spring training grounder. This team and its ridiculous injuries, dear god.

Am I missing the news that surgery is happening?

[rembrat]

Am I missing the news that surgery is happening?

Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey has been told he needs surgery on his right thumb according to major league sources..

Bailey was examined by team doctors in Boston today. He will be in Cleveland on Tuesday to get a second opinion from Dr. Thomas Graham, a respected hand specialist and surgeon.

If Graham agrees with the recommendation for surgery, it could happen as soon as Tuesday. It is uncertain how long Bailey would be out.

http://www.boston.co..._getting_1.html

2012 is not off to a good start.

[Rasputin]

http://www.boston.co..._getting_1.html

2012 is not off to a good start.

No, it's not, but at least it's just the closer. I'd much rather it be him than any of the starting pitchers or any of the starting position players.

[Savin Hillbilly]

No, it's not, but at least it's just the closer. I'd much rather it be him than any of the starting pitchers or any of the starting position players.

True, but that's kind of like saying you'd rather have your balls kicked than cut off. Certainly worse things could have happened (and still may), but this blows the offseason pitching strategy pretty much to hell.

[maufman]

True, but that's kind of like saying you'd rather have your balls kicked than cut off. Certainly worse things could have happened (and still may), but this blows the offseason pitching strategy pretty much to hell.

Bailey's specific ailment is a surprise, but are you really surprised he's hurt? If the FO's offseason strategy hinged on him staying healthy, it was a sucky strategy.

For me, the pitching outlook is changed little from a week ago. If they get 75 not-atrocious starts from some combination of Bard, Doubront, Aceves, Cook and Dice-K, they'll be in good shape. If they don't, they're in trouble. Losing the 60 high-quality, mostly high-leverage innings they hoped to get from Bailey is unfortunate, but they're going to rise or fall based on what they get in the 1400 or so innings no one was counting on Bailey to pitch.

Edited by maufman, 02 April 2012 - 08:20 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Bailey's specific ailment is a surprise, but are you really surprised he's hurt? If the FO's offseason strategy hinged on him staying healthy, it was a sucky strategy.

He's got a trick elbow. Is there any evidence that he's injury-prone otherwise? I mean, yes, there are developments we should have been prepared for, but this isn't one of them. It's like saying that because I have a family history of heart disease, I shouldn't be surprised that I have a brain tumor.

[glennhoffmania]

But the point is that he has a trick elbow, and nobody would've been surprised if he missed time with an elbow problem. So while the injury is to a different body part, they must've been prepared for him not always being available.

[Pumpsie]

True, but that's kind of like saying you'd rather have your balls kicked than cut off. Certainly worse things could have happened (and still may), but this blows the offseason pitching strategy pretty much to hell.

Sure does. And this could have a rippling effect on a lot of things going forward, including the Bard to the rotation strategy being abandoned.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

True, but that's kind of like saying you'd rather have your balls kicked than cut off. Certainly worse things could have happened (and still may), but this blows the offseason pitching strategy pretty much to hell.

Seriously?

Do you seriously think the Sox acquired Andrew Bailey -- Andrew Bailey!?! -- thinking: "well this will work, if he stays healthy all season..." If that was the case, why did they pick up Melancon first?

No. Bard will start for no more than three months. He doesn't have an innings-limit, per se, and he's got a ton of upside...but he's still only the fifth starter. But I doubt he was ever intended to start for more than three months, before moving back to the bullpen. That's the benefit of DiceK coming back. The Sox get a free preview of what he might be able to do in 2013-14, while allowing for other pitchers to finish the season picking up the slack.

It has always seemed to me that after ~90 IP in 2012, Bard will be bumped back to relief. Maybe he'll be the closer, maybe he'll be the set-up guy. That part depends on whether Bailey is healthy at that time, and how the other pitchers have fallen into roles. In the meanwhile, they'll be able to get by with either one of Melancon or Aceves.

Or so I tell myself, as I curse the gods.

[Plympton91]

I'm sorry, I must be in the wrong place. I thought I signed on to SoSH, but apparently its a mock site.

Because, the SOSH I know would be pointing out that if, in fact, Aceves had outpitched his peripherals to date, and was not really as good as his ERA and W/L record indicated, he'd be a perfect candidate for the magical "closer" tag. Instead, I see a bunch of people suggesting that the Red Sox move in a reactionary way to take their relief ace turned starting pitcher, and plug him into the most overrated position in all of sports.

If the Red Sox need to move Bard to the closer role because Bailey is predictably going to miss a few weeks, then they are saying that the closer is more valuable than a starter. But, they signed Lackey for 16 million a season, and wouldn't pay Papelbon 12.5 million. Those positions are incongruous.
Aceves as "closer" is a match made in heaven. He'll be happy with the "prestige" and we can keep Melancon's arb award down next year.

[rembrat]

There are a lot of different ways this could play out. The way Aaron Cook has been pitching Felix Doubront is going to have to come out guns a blazing. A bad stretch for him in his first few starts and I could easily see a scenario where Doubront is in the bullpen and Cook has replaced him in the rotation. Cook has a May 1st opt out and has no reason to stay in Pawtucket if he can get a job elsewhere.

Bard, as far as we know, has no innings limit, Valentine said as much a few days ago, and the only reason Bard is #5 in my mind is because Felix is a LHP and Valentine didn’t want to double up on lefties. So the fact that Bard is slotted as the #5 shouldn’t hold any weight when it comes to who goes and who stays.

Doubront, Hill, and Morales in the pen at the same time could be really something by the way.

[Rasputin]

True, but that's kind of like saying you'd rather have your balls kicked than cut off. Certainly worse things could have happened (and still may), but this blows the offseason pitching strategy pretty much to hell.

Hardly.

We have, so far as I can tell, no approximations of how long he'll be out. If he's out for the whole season, sure you have a point. If he's out for the proverbial 6-8 weeks then it's only a little bigger than a blip.

I think, honestly, this will mean Aceves gets more 2-3 inning stints than he would otherwise have gotten until they just accept the fact that Bowden sucks (or, I suppose it is at least possible that Bowden turns out not to suck).

Where once we'd go Aceves/Padilla/Morales in the 7th based on matchup and usage, we'll instead go with Aceves/Padilla/Morales based on matchup and usage and try to get three more outs out of that crew before going to Melancon rather than going to Melancon in the 8th and Bailey in the 9th.

Bailey's specific ailment is a surprise, but are you really surprised he's hurt? If the FO's offseason strategy hinged on him staying healthy, it was a sucky strategy.

The fact that they acquired two closers suggests they weren't banking on him being healthy. Nobody is surprised he's hurt.

For me, the pitching outlook is changed little from a week ago. If they get 75 not-atrocious starts from some combination of Bard, Doubront, Aceves, Cook and Dice-K, they'll be in good shape. If they don't, they're in trouble. Losing the 60 high-quality, mostly high-leverage innings they hoped to get from Bailey is unfortunate, but they're going to rise or fall based on what they get in the 1400 or so innings no one was counting on Bailey to pitch.

Yeah, pretty much this. If it means we get Aceves/Padilla/Morales/Melancon in slightly higher leverage innings and Tazawa getting major league innings instead of minor league innings, I'm not sure we're missing all that much.

And really, if it's a mess then Bard will close at some point when they think another starter is capable of doing it whether it's Cook by May 1 or Dice K whenever he is ready.

Get the 75 non atrocious starts from Bard, Doubront, Aceves, Cook, Dice K and whatever sludge crawls out from under the kitchen sink and 75 much better than non atrocious starts from Beckett, Buchholz, and Lester, and we're okay.

[Rasputin]

Sure does. And this could have a rippling effect on a lot of things going forward, including the Bard to the rotation strategy being abandoned.

There's a whole fuckload of things that have to go wrong before they abandon the Bard to the rotation strategy. The Bailey injury would have to be for the season, and everyone else in the bullpen would have to be unable to cut it, and they'd have to be unable to trade for something.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Doubront, Hill, and Morales in the pen at the same time could be really something by the way.

If Cook and Matsuzaka are able to maintain league-average results by July 1, the second-half bullpen -- with or without Bailey -- includes:

Bard
Melancon
Doubront
Aceves
Miller/Morales
Hill

In theory, that's simply an insane pen.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

I don't do hand surgery, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any thumb condition that would "require" surgery other than a UCL tear of the thumb, also known as Gamekeeper's or Skier's thumb. If that's the case... see you in August. At the earliest.

Ok, 2013, whatever.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Aceves as "closer" is a match made in heaven. He'll be happy with the "prestige" and we can keep Melancon's arb award down next year.

Isn't Aceves greatest skill his rubber arm, his ability to throw 3 innings one day, and still pitch the next day? If he's to be used as a closer, he'll pitch a lot fewer innings, who picks those up?

I'm shocked no one has mentioned the dreaded "bullpen by committee", or talked about a trade for K-Rod.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 02 April 2012 - 09:06 PM.

[Rasputin]

Isn't Aceves greatest skill his rubber arm, his ability to throw 3 innings one day, and still pitch the next day? If he's to be used as a closer, he'll pitch a lot fewer innings, who picks those up?

I'm shocked no one has mentioned the dreaded "bullpen by committee", or talked about a trade for K-Rod.

I think Aceves as closer would be horrendous misuse of available talent.

If you need to get three guys out in a tough situation, Aceves isn't the guy you want to go to. If you want to get six or nine guys out in a medium leverage situation he's your guy.

[Rasputin]

If Cook and Matsuzaka are able to maintain league-average results by July 1, the second-half bullpen -- with or without Bailey -- includes:

Bard
Melancon
Doubront
Aceves
Miller/Morales
Hill

In theory, that's simply an insane pen.

Why in the hell is Miller on that list? His suck is so monumental he makes other guys give up runs.

I don't do hand surgery, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any thumb condition that would "require" surgery other than a UCL tear of the thumb, also known as Gamekeeper's or Skier's thumb. If that's the case... see you in August. At the earliest.

Ok, 2013, whatever.

Well aren't you Mr. Sunshine. Or Dr. Sunshine. Or whatever.

Fuck, man, August?

Blecch.

[rembrat]

We don't know what needs repairing so this is only speculation but Youk had thumb surgery in August 10' and was done for the season. Salty also had his thumb fixed in Sept 10' and he didn't pick up a bat until December. So 4 months might be best case scenario...

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Why in the hell is Miller on that list? His suck is so monumental he makes other guys give up runs.




Well aren't you Mr. Sunshine. Or Dr. Sunshine. Or whatever.

Fuck, man, August?

Blecch.

Yeah, I didn't go to online medical school so you can call me "Mr."

August.

At. The. Earliest.

[aron7awol]

Whether BABIP-suppression exists as a skill is interesting and hard to resolve. There have been a few threads on the question in prior years, and I don't want to repeat those. My hunch is that Aceves has something interesting, that he's not alone in having it, and that he's lucky as well. I wouldn't expect him to repeat a .235 BABIP, but it wouldn't surprise me to find that he could keep BABIP down to .275 -- not nearly as astonishing as his 2011 performance or his career, but still a useful skill.

I was actually going to ask you where you would project Aceves' BABIP going forward. I'd say .275 is still generous at this point, but at least within the realm of possibility, since that's around where the elite BABIP suppressors have ended up. Of course, the problem is, 2008-2011 Alfredo Aceves with a .275 or higher BABIP is not a great pitcher. That has really been my point all along. I've never doubted that BABIP suppression is a skill; it most certainly appears to be. I'm not even doubting that Aceves might possess that skill. The fact remains, he needs to continue to display BABIP suppression skill and improve his peripherals in order to project him as a better bet to start than Bard or even Padilla/Cook. You have to also expect some drop off in his peripherals moving from the pen to starting.

No. Bard will start for no more than three months. He doesn't have an innings-limit, per se, and he's got a ton of upside...but he's still only the fifth starter. But I doubt he was ever intended to start for more than three months, before moving back to the bullpen. That's the benefit of DiceK coming back. The Sox get a free preview of what he might be able to do in 2013-14, while allowing for other pitchers to finish the season picking up the slack.

It has always seemed to me that after ~90 IP in 2012, Bard will be bumped back to relief. Maybe he'll be the closer, maybe he'll be the set-up guy. That part depends on whether Bailey is healthy at that time, and how the other pitchers have fallen into roles. In the meanwhile, they'll be able to get by with either one of Melancon or Aceves.

Why? If it turns out that Bard can pitch well enough as a starter that he's more valuable in that role, why wouldn't you leave him there? I can't imagine that's possibly been the plan all along, regardless of how well he pitches. If he has a 3.50 ERA through his first 90 innings, you'd rather move him back to the pen than let him continue starting? That would be a terrible decision.

I'm sorry, I must be in the wrong place. I thought I signed on to SoSH, but apparently its a mock site.

Because, the SOSH I know would be pointing out that if, in fact, Aceves had outpitched his peripherals to date, and was not really as good as his ERA and W/L record indicated, he'd be a perfect candidate for the magical "closer" tag. Instead, I see a bunch of people suggesting that the Red Sox move in a reactionary way to take their relief ace turned starting pitcher, and plug him into the most overrated position in all of sports.

If the Red Sox need to move Bard to the closer role because Bailey is predictably going to miss a few weeks, then they are saying that the closer is more valuable than a starter. But, they signed Lackey for 16 million a season, and wouldn't pay Papelbon 12.5 million. Those positions are incongruous.
Aceves as "closer" is a match made in heaven. He'll be happy with the "prestige" and we can keep Melancon's arb award down next year.

Closers are overrated in the sense that they are not necessarily the most important reliever, but it's not like you should just put a scrub there either. Look at Bard and Papelbon's leverage index numbers for the last couple of seasons:
2010 gmLI
Papelbon 1.85
Bard 1.90
2011 gmLI
Papelbon 1.70
Bard 1.71

It looks to me like if you're going to go with the traditional roles of setup man and closer, they are pretty much equal in importance. If you go with the actual relief ace who you give the highest leverage situations, no matter the inning, you could bump his LI higher than your 2nd tier "backup relief ace". Since I'm assuming the Sox won't be using Melancon as a true relief ace, if you think Aceves is one of the two best relievers in the bullpen, I'm not sure it makes much of a difference whether you make him the setup man or closer.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The fact that they acquired two closers suggests they weren't banking on him being healthy.

It doesn't necessarily suggest anything except that they had two back-end bullpen openings, or hoped to. Remember, they picked up Melancon first; it seems like a stretch to say they acquired him as an injury hedge for a guy they didn't even have yet.

Of course I'm not saying they were "banking on" Bailey being healthy in the sense that they were treating it as a sure thing. But I have to believe that they went to some trouble to assure themselves that Bailey's elbow was in no imminent danger of blowing up again before they gave up the talent they did. And so far, we have no reason to believe they didn't get that right.

[Rasputin]

Yeah, I didn't go to online medical school so you can call me "Mr."

August.

At. The. Earliest.

It's amazing how many super villains have advanced degrees.

[JakeRae]

Melancon makes more sense as the closer than does Aceves. The primary reason for this is that making Aceves the closer pigeonholes him into a role where his versatility relative to innings pitched will not be utilized. Aceves' ability to throw 2 or 3 innings out of the bullpen when necessary is a big piece of his value in the pen and he won't get used that way if he gets labeled as the closer. Aceves being the closer also would mean he is not available to be a spot-starter. While the general difference in value between a defined 8th and 9th inning reliever probably is not very large, the particular choice of Aceves v. Melancon for closer in the absence of Bailey is easy due to one of those players being a highly versatile pitcher who can be used in a variety of ways for a variety of number of innings and one of them being a traditional one inning reliever. Fortunately, Melancon also has the classicly overvalued "closing experience" which should help push Valentine to the right decision on this one.

[mauidano]

How long was Youk out with his thumb surgery?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's amazing how many super villains have advanced degrees.

Intelligence is evil. Heart and faith are the weapons of the righteous. Of course, heart was the weakest Captain Planet Kid, so maybe my hypothesis needs work.

Anyway, I don't get the support for Aceves as a closer. I've never seen anything out of him that would suggest it's a good role for him. If people were driven nuts by Papelbon giving up baserunners when ahead in the ninth, Aceves will melt the board down. His BABIP will not stay at .231. He might have an ability to suppress it a bit, but it's sort of like Chien-Ming Wang being able to maintain such low ERA's with zero ability to strike hitters out. He may be able to continue doing it, but betting on it by putting him into higher leverage innings seems like an awful idea.

[Eric Van]

It's tough to look at projections for Aceves as a closer because everyone has projected him as starting some games as well, which drives up ERA. And it's tough to look at projections for Melancon because Ron Shandler and Bill James projected him as an Astro.

Be that as it may, you can adjust for both factors, figuring that ERA in a start is 0.80 higher than a relief appearance, and that moving from the NL to the AL adds 6% to ERA (above and beyond the park factors).

In which case none of the major sources projects Melancon to be better than Aceves.

Aceves, Melancon:

PECOTA 3.61, 4.09
ZiPS 3.40, 3.59
BJ 3.30, 4.37
RS 3.40, 3.69

However, given Aceves' multi-inning versatility, if ZiPS or Shandler were correct, you'd probably have Melancon close.

Both projections have very wide error bars, Aceves because of the BABIP factor and Melancon because of his possible second-half breakthrough last year, and the league switch.

I wouldn't put it beyond Bobby V to dismiss "closer by committee" as an option and then do it to at least some degree, e.g., naming Aceves as closer and making some excuse each time he went with Melancon on a given day. The real reason might be that they feel Melancon is the better option against weak hitters, while Aceves is a much better one against tough lineup stretches, but they'd talk about simply managing Aceves' total use instead.

Another, similar strategy would be to name Melancon the closer and Aceves the setup man (which is to say relief ace), but with the announced caveat that because of Aceves' multi-inning capability, there will be days when he'll take the 8th and 9th. And then do that an awful lot, essentially restricting Melancon to easy saves. That would my initial plan.

Finally, if Bailey is really out until the second half, you have to think about Rich Hill as a dark horse candidate. Not saying that he should even be "given a chance," but that of all the guys on the roster, he's one that has shown, very briefly, that he might conceivably be better than both Aceves and Melancon.

Edited by Eric Van, 03 April 2012 - 05:26 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Bailey does have surgery, will he ever even pitch in a big league game for the Sox? I guess the start of the season is a perfect example of how you can look back at the year prior and think things can't get worse, not as many guys will get hurt, etc. and then "shit happens". Making this bullpen work may be Valentine's / McClure's biggest challenge.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If Bailey does have surgery, will he ever even pitch in a big league game for the Sox? I guess the start of the season is a perfect example of how you can look back at the year prior and think things can't get worse, not as many guys will get hurt, etc. and then "shit happens". Making this bullpen work may be Valentine's / McClure's biggest challenge.

DRS just hypothesized an August return date, so obviously there's a chance the Sox would get nothing out of Bailey in 2012.

But frankly, there was always that chance. It's Andrew Bailey, after all.

If Bailey is out until August, he simply becomes 2012's Scott Williamson or Billy Wagner waiver-wire bullpen get. If it turns out he's lost for the season, well neither of those guys cost that much, in the first place.

There are other good (if not perfect) options to close out games, and I'm sure BobbyV and McClure will figure out a decent alternative.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If Bailey is out for the season I see a trade in the very near future happening... Nothing that I saw in Melancon's stuff during ST convinced me that he has the stuff to be a reliable closer in the AL East. I'm not talking about ST stats even, because they can be misleading, I am talking about how "straight" and hittable his stuff looked with the eyeball test.

Wasn't the "closer" market flooded this offseason with too many closers out there for not enough teams? Who out there would be available at this point to acquire either as a second power arm or as an experienced closer?

Krod? not sure how he go over in the Boston environment , he was virtaully nuclear in New York.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 03 April 2012 - 06:33 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Finally, if Bailey is really out until the second half, you have to think about Rich Hill as a dark horse candidate. Not saying that he should even be "given a chance," but that of all the guys on the roster, he's one that has shown, very briefly, that he might conceivably be better than both Aceves and Melancon.

I keep flashing back to that Gammo blurb last year where he foresaw the Sox having Bard start and Miller close.

And then I start hoping there's some "nest-cam" feed from down in Carolina, where I could watch Ras' head explode in real time.

Back in reality, this does not reflect my actual hopes.

[rembrat]

How long was Youk out with his thumb surgery?

Found this blurb on rotoworld dated Oct. 29 2010.

Kevin Youkilis says his thumb is "pretty much 100 percent."Youkilis had thumb surgery in early August and has already resumed normal workouts. "It's great, it's pretty much 100 percent, it's real close to 100 percent in strength," Youkilis said. "I'm hitting, throwing, all the good stuff. So I'll be ready to go -- I'm ready to go now to play baseball, but there's no baseball to be played." The thumb is only a minor concern, so take advantage if other owners left him fall to far in drafts next year.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia will undergo surgery Tuesday to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb.Dr. Thomas Graham, who performed season-ending surgery on Kevin Youkilis, will also do the surgery on Saltalamacchia. The 25-year-old catcher is expected to need 4-6 weeks of recovery time, which means he should be ready in time for spring training. Dated Sept 28th

3 month turn around for Youk and a much shorter one for Salty. Youk's thumb injury was much greater. We have to cross are fingers that Bailey's isn't as serious.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Would recovery time be longer for a pitcher, though? "Throwing" is a lot more important to Bailey than Youkilis, I would think.

[czar]

3 month turn around for Youk and a much shorter one for Salty. Youk's thumb injury was much greater. We have to cross are fingers that Bailey's isn't as serious.

For more reference, Youkilis had the same thumb injury DRS refers to upthread (torn UCL). Salty had some sort of muscular injury, IIRC.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

For more reference, Youkilis had the same thumb injury DRS refers to upthread (torn UCL). Salty had some sort of muscular injury, IIRC.

Youkilis actually had a torn adductor - I'm not sure what Salty had, although it might have been his UCL.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I don't do hand surgery, but I'm hard-pressed to think of any thumb condition that would "require" surgery other than a UCL tear of the thumb, also known as Gamekeeper's or Skier's thumb. If that's the case... see you in August. At the earliest.

Ok, 2013, whatever.

I had the same surgery, back in late 2000. I only missed a few weeks.














Of course I was an accountant, and it wasn't on my "10 key" hand

[czar]

Youkilis actually had a torn adductor - I'm not sure what Salty had, although it might have been his UCL.

You're right, I swapped the two.

[TomRicardo]

We don't know what needs repairing so this is only speculation but Youk had thumb surgery in August 10' and was done for the season. Salty also had his thumb fixed in Sept 10' and he didn't pick up a bat until December. So 4 months might be best case scenario...

Yes because all thumb surgery is the same. Also I am not sure when Bailey will ever pick up a bat again,..