Something about Aceves leads me to belive that if he gets a shot at closing he won't look back and will become the next great Red Sox closer.... I just have that gut, feeling and it's not backed up by stats or news or anything. He has that Bulldog mentality where he will throw anything up there just to get a guy out. He has a mean streak and has been good in clutch situations. He is too good of a pitcher to be a long man and really wants to put himself into a position to cash in on a big payday (ie. strong desire to start). I think he could start closing games and just be too good in April to go back to a dinged up Bailey.
Just my opinion, I think Aceves has a real shot at getting a look and sinching up the job, if Bailey dosen't keep himself healthy
I mentioned this in today's game thread... I have the exact same feeling. If Aceves gets a hold of that job for an extended period of time, he will not let go of it.
I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.
It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly
Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.
Edited by aron7awol, 01 April 2012 - 10:12 PM.