193 replies to this topic

[rembrat]

nickcafardo: Valentine hinted there's a bullpen injury that may have impacted a decision to keep aceves in pen. Wouldn't say who.

http://twitter.com/n...458075430010882

"nickcafardo: Valentine said he would feel comfortable with aceves finishing off games."

http://twitter.com/n...458729410084864

"PeteAbe: Valentine mentioned a health issue in the back end of the bullpen but didn't identify the player. Bailey hasn't pitched since March 25."

http://twitter.com/P...460029145194497

Wouldn't be surprised if Aceves closed out more games than Bailey this year.

Edited by rembrat, 03 April 2012 - 05:42 PM.

[tims4wins]

http://www.boston.co...nt_named_1.html

Andrew Bailey, who has a history of health concerns, has not pitched since March 25. He was listed as one of the pitchers to throw against the Rays yesterday and did not.
Bailey also is not listed to pitch today.
Seven straight days without appearing in a game would seem to indicate something is amiss. More on this as news becomes available.

Emphasis mine

Edited by tims4wins, 01 April 2012 - 09:42 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Guys on EEI's baseball show speculation: no Bailey appearance scheduled for today or tomorrow = 8 days without pitching.

Sounds like Aceves will be closing, or at very least setting up Melancon.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Acquiring injured relievers is the new market inefficiency.

Remember when Bobby V was asked about acquiring Bailey before the trade....."is he healthy"?

Ugh, although its funny that the team had Bard, traded for Bailey and Melancon, yet the closer to start might be Aceves.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 01 April 2012 - 10:00 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Acquiring injured relievers is the new market inefficiency.

Remember when Bobby V was asked about acquiring Bailey before the trade....."is he healthy"?

Ugh.

Better in April than October. If true, this will give BobbyV time to figure out what else he has and what he needs. If Aceves closes, I absolutely believe he can convert all the gimme-saves anyways. Bard and Bailey would both remain possible in-season adds.

Ideal? Hell No. But it won't submarine the season should Bailey's take his annual DL-vacation early this year.

[SoxScout]

Dan Duggan
I spoke to Andrew Bailey on Friday. No reference to any injury: http://www.bostonher...n=recent_bullet

LOL at Abraham tweeting about 8 days tomorrow:

brianmacp: Andrew Bailey last pitched on Wednesday, throwing 26 pitches in a minor-league game.

Edited by SoxScout, 01 April 2012 - 10:17 AM.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm confused. Not that Rotowire is the ultimate source for info, but they said this:

Mar 29 Bailey pronounced himself "ready to roll" following a 26-pitch outing Wednesday, Comcast SportsNet New England reports.
Recommendation: Bailey threw 21 strikes and went 1.2 innings, giving up one run on two hits, with no walks while striking out two. It was the first time this spring that Bailey has thrown more than one inning

So according to this he pitched on the 28th, not the 25th.

[RedOctober3829]

edit: just saw glenhoff's post

Edited by RedOctober3829, 01 April 2012 - 10:17 AM.

[SoxScout]

Sean_McAdam: Baseball source: closer Andrew Bailey dealing with some sort of thumb injury. Red Sox are said to be gathering more info.

[RedOctober3829]

According to the stats on redsox.com, Bailey has last pitched on March 25th against Toronto. He went 1 inning, giving up 1 hit and recording 1 K.

http://boston.redsox...012&level='ALL'

[Plympton91]

Well, that's much better than elbow or shoulder.

[glennhoffmania]

So where did this 1.2 inning appearance on the 28th go?

[JimBoSox9]

I think the 25th was against MLB opposition and the 28th was a MiLB game, which is why some sources are counting it and others are not.

Edit: Here's the writeup on the 28th outing from NECN, definitely against AAA opposition: http://www.necn.com/...050&feedID=3352

Sadly it may be as simple as the sportswriters not being at that game and thus not knowing about it. Keeping track of ST stats with split-squads and minor league games is always kinda wonky.

Edit: The PeteAbe article quoted upthread that started the confusion has been updated, it now reads:

Bailey, who has a history of health concerns, has not pitched in a major league game since March 25. He was listed as one of the pitchers to throw against the Rays on Saturday and did not.

Bailey did throw 26 pitches in a minor league game on Wednesday. But he is not listed to pitch on Sunday or Monday. That would be eight days in a row without getting in a major league game and five days in a row without getting into any kind of game.

So he put out the wrong date, tweeted a correction, and then updated the article

Edited by JimBoSox9, 01 April 2012 - 10:30 AM.

[smastroyin]

If it was a minor league game, it wouldn't be in the redsox.com stats, would it?

edit: like Jimbo said.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Olney on Twitter, he also states on Baseball Tonight at 12:30 this afternoon they'll be talking Bailey among other things.

Buster Olney‏@Buster_ESPN
Red Sox will know more about Bailey's thumb injury in a couple of days; could backdate DL so he can be activated early in season.

Edited by PaulinMyrBch, 01 April 2012 - 10:55 AM.

[glennhoffmania]

Sadly it may be as simple as the sportswriters not being at that game and thus not knowing about it. Keeping track of ST stats with split-squads and minor league games is always kinda wonky.

Sure, but you'd think that a Sox beat writer would know the story.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Pitching in the minors allows them to backdate a DL stint if necessary.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If Bailey hits the DL, I sure hope it's not longer than 2 series.

I'm not worried about the Sox closing out games in Bailey's absence, but I'm worried they won't be able to get there. The bats better be relentless in the later innings.

Aceves
Melancon
Padilla
Morales
Albers
Bowden
Thomas

Ycch.

Get well soon, Andrew. Miller and Hill, you guys too. Or prove me wrong, terrifying middle relievers!

[Rasputin]

Pitching in the minors allows them to backdate a DL stint if necessary.

So he could miss as little as four games.

If Bailey hits the DL, I sure hope it's not longer than 2 series.

I'm not worried about the Sox closing out games in Bailey's absence, but I'm worried they won't be able to get there. The bats better be relentless in the later innings.

Aceves
Melancon
Padilla
Morales
Albers
Bowden
Thomas

Or, you know, Atchison and Tazawa instead of Albers and Thomas. Since, you know, they're better.

[E5 Yaz]

#nickcafardo Until we hear Andrew Bailey's explanation on how he injured his thumb the cause of this remains a mystery to Sox brass.

[Plympton91]

Oh joy, another controversy for the nattering nabobs to flaunt.

Maybe Vincente Padilla can reinvent himself as a relief ace.

[ngruz25]

Or, you know, Atchison and Tazawa instead of Albers and Thomas. Since, you know, they're better.

Tazawa was optioned back to Pawtucket already. Atchison, Albers, and Thomas are still in camp. I have no idea what Thomas has to offer that's any better than Atchison or Albers, besides being a lefty.

Both Atchison and Thomas require a 40-man spot. Padilla needs one too. One of those spots will be opened up by putting Carpenter on the 60-day DL, and I guess another would be Rich Hill's (but I thought he was almost ready?). Given the 40-man crunch, I can't imagine why Thomas would make the team.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Tazawa was optioned back to Pawtucket already. Atchison, Albers, and Thomas are still in camp. I have no idea what Thomas has to offer that's any better than Atchison or Albers, besides being a lefty.

Both Atchison and Thomas require a 40-man spot. Padilla needs one too. One of those spots will be opened up by putting Carpenter on the 60-day DL, and I guess another would be Rich Hill's (but I thought he was almost ready?). Given the 40-man crunch, I can't imagine why Thomas would make the team.

There's also Matsuzaka and Kalish that can be put on the 60-day DL. That makes four potential ways to fit NRI guys on the 40-man for Opening Day. It's going to be at least three NRIs regardless...Padilla is more or less a given at this point. One of Atchison and Thomas is likely to make it. And the third spot will go to the last bench guy (Repko, Spears, or Ciriaco) or, if they carry 8 relievers to start, the other of Atchison and Thomas.

[Comeback Kid]

Maybe Vincente Padilla can reinvent himself as a relief ace.

FWIW, Padilla closed for the Dodgers briefly last season before getting hurt. 3 saves and 5 holds.

[SoxScout]

Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey is headed back to Boston tomorrow to have his right thumb examined, manager Bobby Valentine said.

Valentine offered little information otherwise. He did not know how Bailey was injured and he did not characterize the injury.

He did say Bailey pitched in a minor league game on Wednesday with the injury. Bailey has not pitched since and is not scheduled to pitch in the remaining two spring training games.

http://www.boston.co...y_headed_b.html

Edited by SoxScout, 01 April 2012 - 04:12 PM.

[Laser Show]

This all seems kind of strange to me... at first Valentine didn't want to tell anyone that Bailey was hurt. Now we know he's hurt, but Valentine still doesn't know how he was hurt and refuses to tell us the nature of the injury? AND he's being sent to Boston for an examination?

I'm feeling uneasy about this.

[E5 Yaz]

Don't. I get the sense BV won't be telling people much about anything specific

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Something about Aceves leads me to belive that if he gets a shot at closing he won't look back and will become the next great Red Sox closer.... I just have that gut, feeling and it's not backed up by stats or news or anything. He has that Bulldog mentality where he will throw anything up there just to get a guy out. He has a mean streak and has been good in clutch situations. He is too good of a pitcher to be a long man and really wants to put himself into a position to cash in on a big payday (ie. strong desire to start). I think he could start closing games and just be too good in April to go back to a dinged up Bailey.

Just my opinion, I think Aceves has a real shot at getting a look and sinching up the job, if Bailey dosen't keep himself healthy

[Laser Show]

Something about Aceves leads me to belive that if he gets a shot at closing he won't look back and will become the next great Red Sox closer.... I just have that gut, feeling and it's not backed up by stats or news or anything. He has that Bulldog mentality where he will throw anything up there just to get a guy out. He has a mean streak and has been good in clutch situations. He is too good of a pitcher to be a long man and really wants to put himself into a position to cash in on a big payday (ie. strong desire to start). I think he could start closing games and just be too good in April to go back to a dinged up Bailey.

Just my opinion, I think Aceves has a real shot at getting a look and sinching up the job, if Bailey dosen't keep himself healthy

I mentioned this in today's game thread... I have the exact same feeling. If Aceves gets a hold of that job for an extended period of time, he will not let go of it.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Bailey and Melancon would make a hell of a set-up tandem.

[SoxScout]

Evan Drellich

"Yeah, a couple days later [after March 25], he was squeezing some shampoo, and said man, my thumb was sore." - Bob McClure on Andrew Bailey

[Yaz4Ever]

Something about Aceves leads me to belive that if he gets a shot at closing he won't look back and will become the next great Red Sox closer.... I just have that gut, feeling and it's not backed up by stats or news or anything. He has that Bulldog mentality where he will throw anything up there just to get a guy out. He has a mean streak and has been good in clutch situations. He is too good of a pitcher to be a long man and really wants to put himself into a position to cash in on a big payday (ie. strong desire to start). I think he could start closing games and just be too good in April to go back to a dinged up Bailey.

Just my opinion, I think Aceves has a real shot at getting a look and sinching up the job, if Bailey dosen't keep himself healthy

I mentioned this in today's game thread... I have the exact same feeling. If Aceves gets a hold of that job for an extended period of time, he will not let go of it.

Bailey and Melancon would make a hell of a set-up tandem.

Huge Aceves fan. Couldn't agree more.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm going to be the designated skeptic on Aceves as closer. He's not a big bat-misser, and he let inherited runners score at higher than the league average rate despite an almost certainly non-repeatable BABIP with RISP (I know he looks like a legitimate BABIP-suppresser, but not to the tune of .198). I like him, but I'm not sure he's elite reliever material. I think he's better suited to his 2011 Swiss army knife role.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Have to agree with SH. Aceves walks too many and strikes out too few to be a closer, IMO. His biggest asset is his durability and ability to go multiple innings, which would be wasted in traditional closer role.

[Hendu's Gait]

I'm going to be the designated skeptic on Aceves as closer. He's not a big bat-misser, and he let inherited runners score at higher than the league average rate despite an almost certainly non-repeatable BABIP with RISP (I know he looks like a legitimate BABIP-suppresser, but not to the tune of .198). I like him, but I'm not sure he's elite reliever material. I think he's better suited to his 2011 Swiss army knife role.

Aren't inherited runners few and far between for closers? Looking at Papelbon's IP last year, he had 55 1 inning appearances, 7 fractional inning appearances, and one 2 inning appearance. Of course, there were likely some appearances also where he came in with inherited runners and no outs, (or for some closers possibly exited in the middle of an inning during a blown save) but the point stands, the majority of a closer's appearances come with a fresh 9th inning.

Inherited runner run prevention is inherently important for middle relievers, especially OOGYs, but how much does it really matter for regular season closers?

Edited by Hendu's Gait, 01 April 2012 - 06:22 PM.

[Sprowl]

Don't. I get the sense BV won't be telling people much about anything specific

He'll tell you what you need to know, but not when you want to know it.

Even then he won't be clear, and we'll mistake it for snark.

"Yeah, a couple days later [after March 25], he was squeezing some shampoo, and said man, my thumb was sore." - Bob McClure on Andrew Bailey

Squeezing some shampoo? Is that what it means nowadays?

[OttoC]

Papelbon had five games in which he inherited runners last year: 123/2 outs (K). 123/2 (K), 12-/1 (both scored), -2-/2 (runner scored--BS), 1--/1 (SB, GO, K).

123- is runner on numbered base or not on base (-)
/number is number of outs
description of batter events in parentheses

[aron7awol]

Something about Aceves leads me to belive that if he gets a shot at closing he won't look back and will become the next great Red Sox closer.... I just have that gut, feeling and it's not backed up by stats or news or anything. He has that Bulldog mentality where he will throw anything up there just to get a guy out. He has a mean streak and has been good in clutch situations. He is too good of a pitcher to be a long man and really wants to put himself into a position to cash in on a big payday (ie. strong desire to start). I think he could start closing games and just be too good in April to go back to a dinged up Bailey.

Just my opinion, I think Aceves has a real shot at getting a look and sinching up the job, if Bailey dosen't keep himself healthy

I mentioned this in today's game thread... I have the exact same feeling. If Aceves gets a hold of that job for an extended period of time, he will not let go of it.

I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.

It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly lower BABIP.

Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.

Edited by aron7awol, 01 April 2012 - 10:12 PM.

[Sprowl]

I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.

It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly lower BABIP.

Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.

Yes, it's logical to assume that weak contact and whiff rate should correlate with each other, but that doesn't preclude the possibility of some pitchers having weak contact skills that are out of line with their K rates. While K rates are a much better predictor than BABIP, that doesn't preclude exceptions, which may arise from high ground ball rates (ie, power suppression) or the ability to change speeds (which throws timing off), and maybe a few other talents as well. Aceves has suppressed BABIP for long enough without changing velocity or repertoire to hope that it might continue.

[Rough Carrigan]

I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.

It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly lower BABIP.

Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.

Yeah, but he's like a honey badger. He don't give a shit.

[catomatic]

Have to agree with SH. Aceves walks too many and strikes out too few to be a closer, IMO. His biggest asset is his durability and ability to go multiple innings, which would be wasted in traditional closer role.

Weren't we all referring to him as "the vulture" not too long ago for just this reason? I seem to recall a lot of BS Wins for him.

[aron7awol]

Yes, it's logical to assume that weak contact and whiff rate should correlate with each other, but that doesn't preclude the possibility of some pitchers having weak contact skills that are out of line with their K rates. While K rates are a much better predictor than BABIP, that doesn't preclude exceptions, which may arise from high ground ball rates (ie, power suppression) or the ability to change speeds (which throws timing off), and maybe a few other talents as well. Aceves has suppressed BABIP for long enough without changing velocity or repertoire to hope that it might continue.

I follow your logic, but wouldn't we see examples in history of these types of pitchers? Think of the prototypical guys who match each of these descriptions and look at their career BABIP.

Some examples:
Wakefield .274
Pedro .279
Lowe .295
Halladay .292
Johan .275

This article explains how SIERA tries to project BABIP based on the pitcher's peripherals rather than assuming the pitcher has no control over BABIP:
http://www.baseballp...articleid=12581

I don't dispute that Aceves may have some skill to suppress BABIP slightly, but better than anyone else who's ever pitched? I just don't see it. To be clear, I don't even expect Matt Cain to be able to sustain his .265 BABIP going forward. And like I said in my previous post, even if you think Aceves can suppress BABIP to that level, he still doesn't project as a great pitcher. There's no way he should be getting higher leverage innings than a healthy Bailey and/or Melancon.

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm surprised no one has brought up that given the new situation, Bard should be closing and Aceves starting, with stats to back that up (if they do).

I assume it's because it's easier to move Bard to the pen from the rotation (if a closer is desperately needed) than the other way around (should Bailey prove to be adequate).

I hope I'm wrong, but I have more faith in the upside of Bard as an elite closer and Aceves as a serviceable starter than the other way around.

[teddywingman]

I really don't understand this at all. Why is there so much optimism about a guy with a 4.54 xFIP through 240 big league innings, mostly as a reliever? Even if you believe his low HR/FB is sustainable, his career FIP is 4.08. Matt Cain is the poster child for suppressed BABIP and HR/FB, and even with his ridiculously low career BABIP of .265, his career ERA has only outpaced his FIP by 0.34. Basically what I'm saying is even if you think Aceves can maintain his HR/FB of 7.2%, and can suppress BABIP as well as Matt Cain, it's difficult to project him below a 3.75 ERA. And unfortunately, I don't think there is any reason to believe he can do either of those things based on only 240 IP.

It seems that the biggest argument for BABIP suppression being a skill is that certain guys have the ability to induce weak contact. Isn't it logical to expect a guy who can induce weak contact to also be able to miss bats in general? This is why SIERA adjusts ERA down for guys with high K rates; if you miss bats, you probably also give up weaker contact and thus have a slightly lower BABIP.

Aceves lacks the high K rate, and his career SIERA (which also adjusts down for relievers) is 4.02.

I like this post and the general thinking behind it, but I think you're a little off. While contact rate certainly tells us a lot, I don't think we should correlate swings-and-misses with ultimate success.

Or should we?

edit: to acknowledge that aron7awol's post was not exactly what I should have referred to. I was attempting to posit the idea that weak contact is a skill.

Edited by teddywingman, 02 April 2012 - 03:06 AM.

[czar]

Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey will be in Cleveland on Tuesday to get a second opinion on his injured right thumb from Dr. Thomas Graham, a hand specialist and surgeon.

Bailey was examined today in Boston. According to major league sources, the news was not good and Bailey may require surgery. It is not clear how long he would be out.

Pete Abe

[luckysox]

Pete Abe

Aww crap. You never want a second opinion from a specialist before opening day.

[czar]

Yes, it's logical to assume that weak contact and whiff rate should correlate with each other, but that doesn't preclude the possibility of some pitchers having weak contact skills that are out of line with their K rates. While K rates are a much better predictor than BABIP, that doesn't preclude exceptions, which may arise from high ground ball rates (ie, power suppression) or the ability to change speeds (which throws timing off), and maybe a few other talents as well. Aceves has suppressed BABIP for long enough without changing velocity or repertoire to hope that it might continue.

Has he really? At 240 career IP, he's only a smidge more than a full-time starter spending one year (let's say 32 starts) in the rotation.

If Felix Doubront kept his rates the same and threw 200 IP this year with a .235 BABIP would that be a big enough sample to show the same thing?

[luckysox]

Is there any chance that Bard gets moved to Closer and Ace takes his spot in the rotation, assuming the worst re: Bailey? Would this make people (SoSH people, not organization people) more comfortable than handing the closer job to Melancon or Aceves? I'm interested to see what folks think.

[Laser Show]

Is there any chance that Bard gets moved to Closer and Ace takes his spot in the rotation, assuming the worst re: Bailey? Would this make people (SoSH people, not organization people) more comfortable than handing the closer job to Melancon or Aceves? I'm interested to see what folks think.

In a perfect world, this is what I would want to see. But the Sox have kind of cornered themselves by committing so heavily to Bard in the rotation. Plus, when Bailey does come back, where would you put him?

This season is going to be very, very interesting.

[czar]

Is there any chance that Bard gets moved to Closer and Ace takes his spot in the rotation, assuming the worst re: Bailey? Would this make people (SoSH people, not organization people) more comfortable than handing the closer job to Melancon or Aceves? I'm interested to see what folks think.

In a perfect world, this is what I would want to see. But the Sox have kind of cornered themselves by committing so heavily to Bard in the rotation. Plus, when Bailey does come back, where would you put him?

This season is going to be very, very interesting.

Unless Bailey is going to miss the entire season there is really no reason for the Sox to change course now. At this point the Sox are committed to seeing if Bard's abilities translate well to a SP role; a role where (if he were to perform well) he'd provide significantly more value than as a bullpen arm.

I dislike the idea of Aceves as a closer because I don't think he's the sub-3.00 ERA people think he is, but if the worst case is Melancon has to close for a couple months, jerking Bard back out of the rotation seems like a tremendously reactionary move based around the save statistic.