23 replies to this topic

[Rudy Pemberton]

This has been mentioned in the rotation thread, but seems worthy of a new thread. Not sure anyone could have expected Felix Doubront being the Sox #4 starter a few months ago, shades of Paxton Crawford, 2001?

So, what do we think? 24 years old, career 0.7 HR, 3.1 BB, 7.8 K at the minor league level...seems like he's slipped a bit in the past few years, but he came into camp motivated and being out of options, forced the Sox into making a decision, and here we are.

What do folks expect?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

This has been mentioned in the rotation thread, but seems worthy of a new thread. Not sure anyone could have expected Felix Doubront being the Sox #4 starter a few months ago, shades of Paxton Crawford, 2001?

So, what do we think? 24 years old, career 0.7 HR, 3.1 BB, 7.8 K at the minor league level...seems like he's slipped a bit in the past few years, but he came into camp motivated and being out of options, forced the Sox into making a decision, and here we are.

What do folks expect?

I think the ZIPS line is relatively fair: 32 G, 19 GS, 93 2/3 IP, 4.49 FIP.

Average MLB stuff dependent on defense and luck, but generally able to keep the Sox in games. I see him pushing Bowden out of the pen after 15-20 starts, bumped there by either Cook or Matsuzaka.

Hopefully my expectation is low, but we'll see.

[tims4wins]

The ZIPS line might be fair on the G, GS, and FIP, but the IP seems way off. If he starts 19 games, you would expect 95+ innings alone right there, and adding another 13 relief appearances, the innings projection should be 110+.

[Rasputin]

What do folks expect?

About a half a season of relatively mediocre pitching.

[Plympton91]

About a half a season of relatively mediocre pitching.

Which, as you've been saying, is a massive upgrade over last season. Doubront is #4 because they want to hold Bard's innings down, but I would say Doubront is replacing Lackey, while Bard is replacing Matsuzaka/Wakefield. And a full season from Buchholz replaces Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland, and Eric Bedard. People who are not excited should really do the math on those #3, #4, and #5 starter ERAs and IP/GS.

I am a bit worried about the back end of the bullpen, though. After Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey, I'd rather not have anyone else pitching unless the Sox are down by 4 or up by 7.

Edited by Plympton91, 01 April 2012 - 10:28 AM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I like having a second lefty in the rotation - with him at #4, it's basically impossible for a team to face the Sox and not face a lefty in the series. His k/bb is a little too close to 2 for my liking, but if he can keep the ball in the ballpark (1 hr allowed per 9.75 innings in AAA) he should be okay for a mid-4 ERA, which might make him a .500 pitcher for the Sox.

His 121 innings for Portland in 2009 look to be his most in any season so he should be able to make a substantial contribution if he finds a little success.

[teddywingman]

I haven't seen him this spring so I can't say for sure. But-- unless his stuff has made some real improvements, he's going to get rocked. I expect Lackey-like numbers.

[Plympton91]

I expect he'll start 11 games in April and May, with a line of

59 IP, 65 H, 34 R, 23 BB, 38 K.

That will be a 1.48 WHIP and a 5.18 ERA, good enough to hold the fort until Memorial Day, when I expect Dice-K to be ready. At that point, he goes to the 12th man in the bullpen, and gives them another 24 G, including 2 spot starts, 46 IP, 50 H, 21 R, 16 BB, 37 K.

[Sprowl]

Doubront is a very different pitcher now than the promising unorthodox overhander with the natural cut to his fastball. The arm slot has lowered significantly, the cut on the fastball appears to be gone, and he doesn't come high and tight to RHB any more. That's a shame, because the pitcher he used to be was fun and interesting to watch. Doubront 2012 looks more conventional and less interesting, and thus more of a fungible asset for a mid-season trade. He's got good movement on the changeup and the curve, but I'm less impressed by the slider. The two times I saw him in spring training he was effective at moving the fastball around and tied batters up well. If he keeps that level of fastball command, he should be effective (ie, 4.50 FIP sounds about right).

[RoDaddy]

I like him more than most on this thread. His fastball now looks to be above average, and was hitting 95 early this spring in the game I saw him start against the Skanks. Real good change, promising curve, and good control. Plus good poise. All this, and he’s left handed. I think he’s ready to take it to the next level, and will settle in somewhere as a Jon Lester and Andy Pettitte-light number 3 quality pitcher. If he stays healthy, I even think he might win 18 in a few years.

[Super Nomario]

Doubront's numbers last year in Pawtucket (8.3 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.8 K/9) were really similar to the International League averages (9.0, 0.9, 3.3, 7.6). The HR are the most concerning, as he only allowed 1 in 17 appearances (in the minors; also 3 HR in his major league appearances) in his breakout '10. Which of those is the fluke?

I think he'll be better than replacement level, but below average, which is where most of the projection systems have him. BP has him below replacement. I'll be surprised if he makes 15 starts for the Sox.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'll be surprised if he makes 15 starts for the Sox.

So will Aaron Cook.

In all seriousness, at this point in his career Doubront should be seen as the Sox #1 injury-replacement rather than their #5 starter. So I think him getting 12-16 starts sounds about right. About one third- to one half-season of starting. If he can earn more than that by pulling a Saturn Balls, that would delightful.

[maufman]

I like him more than most on this thread. His fastball now looks to be above average, and was hitting 95 early this spring in the game I saw him start against the Skanks. Real good change, promising curve, and good control. Plus good poise. All this, and he’s left handed. I think he’s ready to take it to the next level, and will settle in somewhere as a Jon Lester and Andy Pettitte-light number 3 quality pitcher. If he stays healthy, I even think he might win 18 in a few years.

Jon Lester dominated AA batters at age 21 like he was playing a video game. Clay Buchholz was even more dominant between AA and AAA at age 22. Doubront is entering his age 24 season and has never been similarly dominant at any level.

On the plus side, only a handful of teams have two SPs who are better than Lester or Buchholz (or Andy Pettitte in his prime), so Doubront doesn't need to be as good as those guys to become the #3 starter you envision him becoming. I don't think he'll get there, but I'd love to be proved wrong.

[pokey_reese]

I'm cautiously optimistic, or at least enthusiastic. I don't think that he will be amazing, but I like the idea of our own Ivan Nova 2011 story for this year. Is it likely that he will put up those kinds of numbers? Probably not. But is hoping that he will exactly why I love the beginning of the baseball season every year? Yes.

Also, would anyone really be that surprised if he ended up making a bunch of starts in place of Buchholz this year? While his results may not get him more than 100-110 innings, injuries might get him closer to 20+ starts.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The biggest question for me (and probably everyone else) is can he stay healthy for a half season to entire season. It seems evey time Douby gets a couple weeks of rotation time he gets hurt.

If healthy I think he could be your prototypical #4, able to keep the team in the game on most outings, eating innings and the occasional gem thrown in. I expect him to be slightly better than average given his lefthandedness and stuff, but I also expect him to get hurt after 5 or so starts.

I think Aaron Cook will eventually replace him and Cook and Dice-K will finish the season as 4 and 5.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 03 April 2012 - 10:15 AM.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

If healthy I think he could be your prototypical #4, able to keep the team in the game on most outings, eating innings and the occasional gem thrown in. I expect him to be slightly better than average given his lefthandedness and stuff, but I also expect him to get hurt after 5 or so starts.

It would be great if he could eat innings, but nothing about his minor league history suggests he's going to be able to do so. He's never averaged more than 5.0 innings/start for a season.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I think my impression that he could potentially be an innings eater stems from his size/build and youth.

[Rasputin]

It would be great if he could eat innings, but nothing about his minor league history suggests he's going to be able to do so. He's never averaged more than 5.0 innings/start for a season.

If he gives us 25-30 five inning starts at something resembling a mediocre level, I'm going to be very pleased.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

If he gives us 25-30 five inning starts at something resembling a mediocre level, I'm going to be very pleased.

I would be ecstatic.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I just plotted out the beginning of the season a bit, and it looks bad for Doubront. Very Bad.

First, it appears he'll only get 4 starts to prove he's better than Aaron Cook before May 1.

Second, these are the likely games:

• 4/9 @ TOR
• 4/15 v. TBR
• 4/21 v. NYY
• 4/26 @ CWS

That's a tough row to hoe, and Felix better bring his A-game. The dates are a bit flexible with off days and such, but the only possible change in opponent is to swap out the White Sox for a game against in Minnesota.

Unless there are injuries to the top of the rotation, I'm starting to think Doubront will be buried in the bullpen before we know it.

[Plympton91]

Why are people so interested in Aaron Cook?

Last article I saw was saying he was having trouble breaking 88 mph with his stuff. That's not going to get it done in the AL, even at sea level.

Keep pitching the kids.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Why are people so interested in Aaron Cook?

Last article I saw was saying he was having trouble breaking 88 mph with his stuff. That's not going to get it done in the AL, even at sea level.

Keep pitching the kids.

Because he offers the same sort of benefits that Wakefield once did -- low cost, consistent (if mediocre) performance, and ability to fill up lots of innings.

And because the clearest path to a better bullpen by the end of April is by replacing Thomas with Doubront. Assuming, of course, that the organization is actually fully committed to giving Bard a fair chance to become a starting pitcher, and thus would veto any attempt to move him out of the rotation this early in the season.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why are people so interested in Aaron Cook?

Last article I saw was saying he was having trouble breaking 88 mph with his stuff. That's not going to get it done in the AL, even at sea level.

Worked OK for Colby Lewis and Carl Pavano last year. I know those aren't exciting names, but we're not looking for exciting, we're looking for marginally competent/non-incendiary.

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

Welcome to the rotation, kid. No pressure...