11 replies to this topic

[ivanvamp]

The Sox have an absolutely brutal first 15 games of the season. Here's their schedule:

3 at Det
3 at Tor
4 vs TB
2 vs Tex
3 vs NY

So how about some predictions? The optimist in me says that they will go 9-6. I can't see them starting any better than that, given the caliber of opponent. My real prediction is that they do the opposite: 6-9. And after 15 games, they'll find themselves 5 games out of first place already, and most of SoSH, and Red Sox Nation, will be in an uproar.

I hope my optimistic prediction is right, though. :-)

[Trotsky]

7-8 or 8-7

[travis bickled]

1-2 vs. Detroit
2-1 vs. Toronto
2-2 vs. Tampa Bay
1-1 vs. Texas
1-2 vs. Yankees

W7- L8

Am I being too pessimistic?

[alwyn96]

Am I being too pessimistic?

I don't think so - those are all good teams. It would certainly help wash away the awful memories of last September if the Red Sox got a strong start this year, though.

[Sampo Gida]

How a team plays over 162 games and how they play over 15 games can be entirely different things. I am sure the Rangers and Indians looked at the Red Sox being on their schedule in the first 6 games last year as a tough hurdle, and the Indians looked to be easy pickings at the start for the Red Sox.

It's easier to pick outcomes of 15 games in the middle of a season than the start as there really is no baseline (who is hot, who is not, etc) unless you use ST stats which seem to be meaningless. Also, with 3 games series, how the rotations lineup is important (eg, you face the other teams 3,4,5 means you have a better chance than facing their 1,2,3)

All I will say is if they win it will be despite Bobby V and if they lose it's all Bobby V's fault..

And no matter whow they do the results will not be predictive as to how they will do over the next 100.

[TOleary25]

The way everyone's rotations are currently structured (which obviously isn't definite), 8 of the 15 opponents starters will be Verlander, Scherzer, Romero, Price, Hellickson, Moore, Holland, and Sabathia. Like others, I see a .500 start or lower based on the competition.

[KillerBs]

I think that is right. We're the equal of 4 of those teams and better than Toronto, so something around .500 makes sense. Actual results may vary. I expect Sox fans are smart enough not to go off if we start 6-9.

[BostonBrahmin]

I think 8-7, with 9-6 a real possibility. While we'll face some tough pitching, we'll have some pretty solid starters ourselves, and I'll take our lineup over TB, MFY, DET and TOR. TEX might have the best offense in the league but they have a shaky rotation after Darvish (is anyone really scared of Colby Lewis?).

[alwyn96]

I think 8-7, with 9-6 a real possibility. While we'll face some tough pitching, we'll have some pretty solid starters ourselves, and I'll take our lineup over TB, MFY, DET and TOR. TEX might have the best offense in the league but they have a shaky rotation after Darvish (is anyone really scared of Colby Lewis?).

Well, Colby Lewis is pretty much a league-average pitcher, which is not scary but not nothing, either. It's Harrison, Holland, and Feliz who should worry you. Matt Harrison actually had a quietly awesome year last year, and Holland is still young and really good. Feliz is hurt (I think?), but has the potential to be a top starter himself. Even without Wilson, they were one of the best rotations in baseball last year. If there's anything they should worry about, it's probably keeping Hamilton/Cruz/Kinsler healthy.

[travis bickled]

Sox will win today!

[touchstone033]

So...off to a 0 and 3 hole...Beckett looks bad...Buchholz doesn't look sharp yet...the bullpen is a mess...at least some of the bats awoke today....But it looks like it'll be tough winning 7 of the first 15. They'd have to go 7 - 5 over the next 12 to do that. Based on the pitching so far, I'd say they'll be lucky to split the remaining 12, which would put them at 6 - 9. I wouldn't be surprised at a 4 - 11 start, or something of the like.

[Edited to change "[I am an Idiot]" to "Buchholz".]

Edited by touchstone033, 08 April 2012 - 07:49 PM.

[ivanvamp]

First off, thanks for the edit - I think it's stupid when people say [I am an idiot] instead of Buchholz. Not a biggie, but thanks anyway.

Second, I agree....4-11 wouldn't surprise me. At this point I'm praying for 7-8, but I don't see it happening. They have 3 at Toronto (who is 2-1), 4 vs TB (who is 3-0 and utterly dominated the Yankees), 2 vs Texas (maybe the best team in the league), and 3 vs. NY (never easy).

I see a 5-10 or 6-9 start as being the most realistic record after 15 games, given how they've played so far.