43 replies to this topic

[PaulinMyrBch]

Starting the season in Salem per Projo. The folks in Greenville aren't happy as they were hoping to have a Gamecock in center for a few months.

Brian MacPherson‏@brianmacp
2011 supplemental first-round draft pick Jackie Bradley Jr. will start with High-A Salem. Impressive spring.

Edited by PaulinMyrBch, 31 March 2012 - 02:13 PM.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I can't get the vid to embed, but this is a NESN video with Dwight Evans talking about JBJ and Brandon Jacobs

http://www.nesn.com/...fenway-vid.html

Edited by PaulinMyrBch, 01 April 2012 - 06:10 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The player I was most excited about the Sox taking last draft, JBJ was given a relatively advanced placement to Salem in 2012.

After a dozen games worth of a hot start, he's proving up to the assignment. JBJ leads an offensively-stacked Salem team in walks, steals, and rbi (from the leadoff spot, no less), is tied for 3rd in both hits and doubles, and stands alone at 3rd among regular starters in OPS. He's also the only regular starter with a BB/K above one.

.333/.448/.429 (.877) -- 12 G, 42 AB, 14 H, 4 2B, 11 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP, 4 SF, 11 RBI, 4 SB, 1 CS.

It's only 10% of the season or thereabouts, so there will surely be trials ahead (and hopefully a promotion to AA). But as for today, I've signed out the keys to the bandwagon and am ready to roll.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 20 April 2012 - 08:25 AM.

[SaveBooFerriss]

The player I was most excited about the Sox taking last draft, JBJ was given a relatively advanced placement to Salem in 2012.

I have a very hard time calling Salem a "relatively advanced placement" for JBJ. He is exactly where similarly situated players like Ellsbury, Vitek, Lowrie, Murphy, Murton, etc were placed. Given his exposure to pro ball last year, it would have been very conservative to start him at Greenville like Brentz last year (Brentz, of course, was coming off a horrific 2010 so his placement was understandable).

An advanced placement would have put him in Portland (like Pedroia in 2005). That said, I am fine where JBJ is and I don't discount the possibility of a promotion ot Portand around midseaon.

Edited by SaveBooFerriss, 20 April 2012 - 10:33 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I have a very hard time calling Salem a "relatively advanced placement" for JBJ. He is exactly where similarly situated players like Ellsbury, Vitek, Lowrie, Murphy, Murton, etc were placed. Given his exposure to pro ball last year, it would have been very conservative to start him at Greenville like Brentz last year (Brentz, of course, was coming off a horrific 2010 so his placement was understandable).

An advanced placement would have put him in Portland (like Pedroia in 2005). That said, I am fine where JBJ is and I don't discount the possibility of a promotion ot Portand around midseaon.

I consider it relatively advanced because he only got ~40 plate appearances between Lowell and Greenville last season. Of the other prospects you named, Ellsbury got over 150 the year he was drafted -- and he had by far the least.

Like you, I also am fine with where JBJ is right now, and am very glad the delay of his signing until the 8/15 deadline hasn't pushed back his development plan.

[mabrowndog]

Kevin Goldstein

Jackie Bradley, OF, Red Sox (High-A Salem)
Bradley entered last spring with hopes of being a single digit pick, but nothing went right in his final year at South Carolina, as he struggled to hit with a case of draft-itis, and then his season was cut short by a wrist injury. His previous performance was strong enough to land him in the supplemental first-round and earn him a big bonus at $1.1 million, which looks like a bargain so far. With four more hits and two more walks over the weekend, Bradley is hitting a monstrous .370/.479/.493 in 20 games with 17 walks and eight stolen bases in nine attempts. He's not a big tools guy, with just average speed, but he's an on-base machine who can play center field, which is a rare combination.

[curly2]

Nice item from Alex Speier regarding Bradley and stolen bases:

In three years playing college ball at the University of South Carolina,

Jackie Bradley Jr.

never stole more than eight bases in a season. On Wednesday in Salem, he stole his ninth and 10th bags of the year in just his 23rd game. How to explain it?

“Let me go ahead and clear that up,” Bradley said by phone this week. “Our coach at South Carolina is a gorilla ball player who didn’t let us steal. Now that I finally have the green light, I can steal. I get the rep about having average speed, but some of the fastest guys don’t have baseball instincts. It’s about instincts and being quick.”

http://bit.ly/KtKtNC

[Danny_Darwin]

Just wondering: when do you all think the Sox should consider bringing him to Portland? Is there anything else he needs to prove in High-A at this point? Not a rhetorical question; actually curious if someone has some scouting observations.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Just wondering: when do you all think the Sox should consider bringing him to Portland? Is there anything else he needs to prove in High-A at this point? Not a rhetorical question; actually curious if someone has some scouting observations.

I think you're looking at midseason for a collegiate hitter -- Barnes was devastating the Sally, but that's no reason not to let JBJ settle in at high-A, and see if this is a projectable talent level or just a month-long hot streak. I come down on the side of talent level, but I'm a bandwagoneer.

Half a season at Portland, and if he's still raking then promote him to AAA for the start of 2013. And honestly, I think having prospects spending some time coming up through the system together as winners is highly under-rated. Letting the current team spend time together jelling as a "2nd wave" to build up some trust isn't a bad thing for the premier positional prospects in the system at the current juncture.

Right now, Portland is talent-poor, and Salem holds almost all of the "second wave" of prospects currently in the system (the "first wave" being WMB, Iglesias, Wilson, Mortensen, etc.)

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Grafted from 5/3 gameday page discussion:

Here's the problem with mid-season (i.e. late June) promotions from A+ to AA involving first-year pro players: Heightened expectations while facing advanced competition is compounded by a workload the player has never had to endure before. And I'll say it again: JBJ hasn't had enough experience with wood bats yet. No matter how good he is today, promoting him this early (or even in late June) is a risky thing to do when there's really no need to do it. If he's still kicking ass at Salem by mid-August with 110-120 games under his belt, then yeah, you could send him up to Portland for a couple of weeks to give him a taste of the next level without putting him in position to endure any prolonged failure or have to be demoted in the midst of a slump.

Once he's gotten through a full season with a wood bat without any setbacks, promoting a player midway through his second year is a much easier thing to do. At that point you know fatigue can be successfully managed, so really the only things he has to confront is better players and the higher expectations.

I think that 110-120 is a third more than is needed at high-A. About 75 should be perfectly sufficient, if JBJ can stay consistent and healthy throughout. Boston has played other top-3 round collegiate hitters (non-catcher, 2001-2010) at high-A as follows:

GP: PROSPECT (OPS)
73: Murphy (.669)
102: Murton (.824)
30: Pedroia (.940) [+16 GP in AFL]
61: Ellsbury (.797)
97: Lowrie (.726) [+ wrist injury setback in May]
98: Bates (1.048)
123: Vitek (.722)
75: Brentz (.868)

Ellsbury shows that promotion well on the low side of that number is a distinct possibility for an outfielder; Murton shows that the high side should be considered as well. And I still have no idea why it took Bates so long to get to Portland.

Pedroia and Brentz should be considered significant outliers, as they are the only two not to have followed the standard development path where the prospect is placed in high-A to start the season following being drafted. Vitek and Lowrie should also be considered outliers to some degree, as both were converting to a new defensive infield position.

____________________

Also, it looks like JBJ is already starting to adapt to wood bats. Here's his L-C-R spray chart on balls-in-play (taken from milb Gameday PBP accounts):

4/6 - 4/18 (first 4 series): 9 - 21 - 4 [with 10 1B, 2 2B]
4/18- 5/3 (next 4 series): 9 - 23 - 9 [with 12 1B, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR]

It's still a small sample size, but he's apparently started to improve his pull swing with a wood bat -- also evidenced by his increased power over the last two weeks. His XBH spray chart for the season is 2 - 3 - 5.

[Merkle's Boner]

Wasnt Bates' High A numbers inflated by Lancaster?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Wasnt Bates' High A numbers inflated by Lancaster?

Sure was, but we don't really know to what extent that affected the Sox decision-making process regarding in-season moves.

Reddick, for example, only got 76 games there, Jon Still got 80, Kalish got 82, Nava got 86, and Lars got 87. Bates' OPS was the highest among them.

[mabrowndog]

I think that 110-120 is a third more than is needed at high-A. About 75 should be perfectly sufficient, if JBJ can stay consistent and healthy throughout. Boston has played other top-3 round collegiate hitters (non-catcher, 2001-2010) at high-A as follows:

GP: PROSPECT (OPS)
73: Murphy (.669)
102: Murton (.824)
30: Pedroia (.940) [+16 GP in AFL]
61: Ellsbury (.797)
97: Lowrie (.726) [+ wrist injury setback in May]
98: Bates (1.048)
123: Vitek (.722)
75: Brentz (.868)

Ellsbury shows that promotion well on the low side of that number is a distinct possibility for an outfielder; Murton shows that the high side should be considered as well. And I still have no idea why it took Bates so long to get to Portland.

Pedroia and Brentz should be considered significant outliers, as they are the only two not to have followed the standard development path where the prospect is placed in high-A to start the season following being drafted. Vitek and Lowrie should also be considered outliers to some degree, as both were converting to a new defensive infield position.

Yeah, I'll acknowledge I may have overshot the hypothetical minimum on games at high-A to some degree. Ellsbury is certainly a great example of a guy who adapted quickly and made their decision to give him an early mid-season promotion look good. A couple things that worked in his favor were (A) getting 35 games in at Lowell the year before, and (B) impressing in the wood bat Cape League in 2004, where he played right here in Falmouth.

But to clarify, my post was dealing with in-season promotions between the A+ and AA levels. Murphy wasn't promoted mid-season. He played 66 games his first year in the system (Lowell & Sarasota), then 78 games (5 w. GCL, the rest with Sarasota) the year after. He started his third year at AA, and although they moved him up a level before he'd endured a full season's workload in one sitting, it's pretty standard for clubs to promote following the off-season and I don't have an issue with it. Players have had another 6 to 8 months to mature mentally and emotionally, for their bodies to grow, and to build strength.

Also, the Sox never promoted Matt Murton to AA. The 102 games noted above were at high-A Sarasota, but after being dealt to the Cubs in the Nomar trade Chicago kept him at their high-A club (Daytona) for 24 more games. The Cubs started him at AA in 2005 after 126 at A+ the year before.

Likewise, Pedroia, Lowrie, Vitek and Brentz were never promoted from A+ to AA in-season.

Bates is actually a case that helps make my point. He put up great numbers at high A (in an offense-inflated league, as Merkle points out above), got promoted after 98 games, and was completely overmatched at AA (.198 BA).

Edited by mabrowndog, 04 May 2012 - 05:46 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Yeah, I'll acknowledge I may have overshot the hypothetical minimum on games at high-A to some degree. Ellsbury is certainly a great example of a guy who adapted quickly and made their decision to give him an early mid-season promotion look good. A couple things that worked in his favor were (A) getting 35 games in at Lowell the year before, and (B) impressing in the wood bat Cape League in 2004, where he played right here in Falmouth.

Oh, I know there's no "right" answer -- and I also think Ellsbury provides the most relevant comp for a best-reasonable-case scenario.

So many of the other guys who could be good comps had issues with injuries (Murphy, Lowrie), or ineffectiveness (Vitek, Brentz) that it makes it hard to judge what the Sox "want" to do with prospects that meet the various target benchmarks the player development guys have set.

Whatever those may be, if they're measured on a rate basis, it would be hard to argue against JBJ hitting them all so far. The kid's gotten off to a pretty ridiculous start. I spent a little time putting together an update to post after tonight's game, which would be his 25th game played, and even me -- the bandwagon bus driver -- came away impressed.

That leaves counting-stat benchmarks: whether it's by games played, total innings, defensive chances, or plate appearances. Which are also entirely reasonable things to include to measure prospect progress. Because his hot start is just that -- a hot start.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

JBJ after 25 games in Salem: .370/.475/.543 (1.018 OPS)

25 G, 92 AB, 34 H, 8 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 19 BB, 17 SO, 24 R, 19 RBI, 4 HBP, 5 SF, 3 ROE, 10 SB, 1 CS.

vs. LHP: .435/.533/.609 (1.142)
vs. RHP: .348/.456/.522 (.977)

Spray chart of balls-in-play shows gap-to-gap approach (19 - 35 - 14). XBH power is generally pull-side (2 - 3 - 4).

Leads Salem in BB, R, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG.

Leads the Carolina League in BB, SB, and OBP.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 05 May 2012 - 07:59 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Gratuitous JBJ plug of the day, courtesy of Alex Speier:

Asked whether power or patience is more important to his game, Bradley (who has two homers among his 11 extra-base hits) did not hesitate.
“Patience, because you can’t teach a power hitter how to hit,” said Bradley. “You can teach a hitter how to hit for power.”

JBJ in the Carolina League:
3rd - 34 H (tied)
3rd - 8 2B (tied)
5th - 19 RBI
5th - 50 TB (tied)
1st - 22 BB
1st - 11 SB

2nd - .366 AVG
1st - .488 OBP
8th - .538 SLG

3rd - 1.026 OPS

[PaulinMyrBch]

JBJ with a 5-6 performance last night at Myrtle Beach. Wanted to see him play this weekend but it hasn't worked out. Pouring rain here in Myrtle Beach, so I doubt they get it in today. I'm sure he'll be in AA by the next Salem trip to MB.

Now at 389/507/575 OPS 1082

[PaulinMyrBch]

JBJ leading the Carolina league after 139 AB's in:

Average .367
BB's 34
OBP .495
Runs 37
OPS 1.063

Second in Slugging at .568
Second in Doubles with 15

Third in Total Bases at 79

Fifth in Steals with 11

BB/K is 1.41

Edited by PaulinMyrBch, 24 May 2012 - 07:29 AM.

[Mugsys Jock]

Boring day at work... couldn't think of anything possibly more fun than checking out the latest on JBJ...

Here's a recent (and kind of boring) article from the Carolina League front office: http://www.milb.com/...t=.jsp&sid=l122

And as for league stats (through June 7):

Runs: 46 (1st)
Hits: 76 (1st)
Doubles: 26 (1st)
TB: 115 (T1st, but with 14 fewer ABs than co-leader Bradley Shoemaker)
Walks: 43 (1st)
Steals: 13 (5th, the bum)
OBP: .498 (1st)
Slugging: .587 (2nd, to Jermaine Tice)
Average: .388 (1st) -- hitting .462 over his last 10 games
OPS: 1.085 (1st)

He has played in 55 of Salem's 57 games.

Edited by Mugsys Jock, 08 June 2012 - 11:44 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Well, the bad news is that JBJ has had a pretty bad June. The good news is that -- as everyone following the farm system knows -- his slump followed a white-hot April and May.

So he's (finally) shipping up to Portland after playing in the all-star game, with a high-A final line of .359/.480/.526. And having moved up into the top tier of the prospect ranks.

Good luck in AA, JBJ!

[PaulinMyrBch]

Linares up to AAA, and JBJ up to AA

[doctorogres]

This excellent profile on JBJ from the Portland Press Herald was making the rounds on Twitter this morning. Lots of great quotes and anecdotes from JBJ and his coaches, from high school, college, and the minors.

Bradley never simply shags during batting practice. He fields – watching balls jump off the bat, and running down every line drive or fly ball.

“He gets five games of experience in one batting practice,” one scout said.

Amiel Sawdaye, the Red Sox director of amateur scouting, watched Bradley’s routine.
“Power shagging,” is how Sawdaye described it. “He treats every BP like a game.”

And perhaps my favorite story:

There was the time after his high school freshman season that Bradley wanted to become a better two-strike hitter. So when he played on an American Legion team that summer, Bradley played Casey-at-the-Bat style, always taking two called strikes before swinging.

“People feel uncomfortable when they have two strikes because they have that fear of striking out,” Bradley said. “I wanted to make it feel comfortable no matter what the count was, whether I had two strikes or not.”

That summer, playing against players two and three years older, and only swinging with two strikes, Bradley batted .405.

Edited by doctorogres, 03 July 2012 - 11:57 AM.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Through 10 games at Portland 368/436/471

[TheGoldenGreek33]

In addition to leading the minors in OBP, he's also been 33 runs above average defensively. . .

[Rough Carrigan]

In addition to leading the minors in OBP, he's also been 33 runs above average defensively. . .

Holy shit! Seriously? Is that projected over a full season or 33 runs above average to this point? That seems almost impossibly good.

[OttoC]

He also has made 7 errors this year between Salem and Portland with only two assists.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Jeff (Arizona): Who has the greater upside, Miles Head, Jackie Bradley, or Tyler Austin?

Ben Badler: Bradley. Not going to make many outs at the plate and he'll save a ton in the field.

[yecul]

Not to be a prospect f'er, but they should be more aggressive with young players. The prime year range is shifting down as roids leave the game. Having a young player hit free agency earlier is a good thing. If you are to give out a massive, long contract having it cover ages 26/27 to 34 is preferable to starting it at 29/30.

Plus he's good and all.

Trade Ellsbury and start JBJ in 2013.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If he maintains an 879 OPS for the rest of his time in Portland, I'd be just fine with that. And I agree with your larger point entirely. Players just aren't making it into their late 30's and maintaining any real semblance of their prime performance anymore and spending big dollars over long contracts isn't panning out like it used to. Taking advantage of young talent is a great way to mitigate that risk when you have to take it, and in the case of a team like Boston, can really help smooth out the transition from a team loaded with bloated bad contracts to a team relying on younger, more athletic talent.

[JakeRae]

Not to be a prospect f'er, but they should be more aggressive with young players. The prime year range is shifting down as roids leave the game. Having a young player hit free agency earlier is a good thing. If you are to give out a massive, long contract having it cover ages 26/27 to 34 is preferable to starting it at 29/30.

Plus he's good and all.

Trade Ellsbury and start JBJ in 2013.

I am for this, but not so much for the reasons you illustrate. I think the largest inefficiency in MLB is an overvaluation of present performance versus future performance. (This is true in the NFL too, but not so much in the NBA since future performance is really hard to come by in any sort of reliable way.) An organization that systematically arbitraged this inefficiency by trading close to FA MLB talent for prospects will create a virtuous cycle for itself whereby it can continue to engage in this action overtime as it develops a massive prospect talent advantage over the rest of the league. I think of this similarly to Belichick's constant trading back in the draft. If you constantly manipulate the time value discounts others apply to assets, you can end up with a constant supply of excess assets as a result.

[Minneapolis Millers]

I am for this, but not so much for the reasons you illustrate. I think the largest inefficiency in MLB is an overvaluation of present performance versus future performance. (This is true in the NFL too, but not so much in the NBA since future performance is really hard to come by in any sort of reliable way.) An organization that systematically arbitraged this inefficiency by trading close to FA MLB talent for prospects will create a virtuous cycle for itself whereby it can continue to engage in this action overtime as it develops a massive prospect talent advantage over the rest of the league. I think of this similarly to Belichick's constant trading back in the draft. If you constantly manipulate the time value discounts others apply to assets, you can end up with a constant supply of excess assets as a result.

In essence, isn't this what Beane's been trying (and forced) to do in Oakland?

[JakeRae]

In essence, isn't this what Beane's been trying (and forced) to do in Oakland?

Yes. But, he lacks the financial resources to really make it work.

[Darnell's Son]

Yes. But, he lacks the financial resources to really make it work.

And now, Cherington is going to see if it can be done with the financial resources. I am fascinated to see what will happen with the selling of big names to acquire great prospects. I do wonder, however, if it would behoove the Red Sox to re-sign Ellsbury now to use him as a stabilizing force. Trading stars for prospects, and reloading a team is great and all, but you have to have some proven talent, and with the departure of Gonzo and CC, it seems like re-signing Ellsbury is paramount to the future success of this team.

Edited by Darnell's Son, 25 August 2012 - 01:49 AM.

[nighthob]

If Ellsbury allows you to unload Lackey and acquire more pitching, you do it. You can always find vets that won't be looking for better than Crawford money despite a long history of injuries. Let that be someone else's headache.

[seantoo]

Not to be a prospect f'er, but they should be more aggressive with young players. The prime year range is shifting down as roids leave the game. Having a young player hit free agency earlier is a good thing. If you are to give out a massive, long contract having it cover ages 26/27 to 34 is preferable to starting it at 29/30.

Plus he's good and all.

Trade Ellsbury and start JBJ in 2013.

That's a big assumption that JBJ is ready next year as his OPS has gone down each of the last few months down to .711 in August. It appears the Sox would be better off revisiting your scenario sometime after the first third of the season is over next year. Then they can re-assess what they thought they had and what they need & then should have a better clue if they can actually contend next year too.

[SoxLegacy]

Terrific article by Alex Speier on JBJ and his fielding here: http://www.weei.com/...-jr-and-art-fie

[Savin Hillbilly]

Terrific article by Alex Speier on JBJ and his fielding here: http://www.weei.com/...-jr-and-art-fie

 

Great piece. He actually sounds a wee bit full of himself....in a good way. I get the feeling he and Pedroia will get along very, very well.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Wait...a CF who doesn't have a noodle for a throwing arm? Be still my heart...

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I really can't wait to see this kid patrolling center field at Fenway.  Part of me wants to see the Sox retain Ellsbury and trot out a defense of Ells in left, Bradley in center and Victorino in right.  If Victorino bounces back or even maintains his current level of play (3.3 fWAR last year) and Ellsbury can be something like his 2008-2009 self, that would be a pretty solid offensive outfield with some pretty outstanding defense.

 

I know it's unlikely Ellsbury will stay in Boston, but that much range in the outfield is fun to think about.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Ellsbury playing LF in Fenway is a little like Crawford, though. I know he did OK there in '08, but still, it's a skillset mismatch. A Fenway LF needs two things: great reads/instincts, and a good, accurate arm with a quick release. Ellsbury has made strides the past few years in the first category, but I still wouldn't say it's a strength so much as no longer a weakness. The second is obviously a weakness. 

 

If he's going to be playing LF it should be in a park with a lot of room out there, where his speed matters. And of course if that park had a short porch in right, that would suit him even better.

 

(Shudder.)

 

Not that Seattle wouldn't work pretty well for him also. Let's think Seattle.

[Sinistas]

Farrell is very impressed with JBJ so far, and doesn't rule out that he'd make the big league roster (although it's obviously a remote possibility):
 

“Every time he steps on a field he’s done something very positive,’’ Farrell said. “For a young player, he’s sound fundamentally. Defensively, he takes outstanding routes to difficult plays in the outfield, even in the early going here, and he’s hit both left-handed and right-handed hitting. For a young player to make a positive impression in camp, he’s gotten off to a very good start. 

 

http://espn.go.com/b...ot-with-red-sox

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Ellsbury playing LF in Fenway is a little like Crawford, though. I know he did OK there in '08, but still, it's a skillset mismatch. A Fenway LF needs two things: great reads/instincts, and a good, accurate arm with a quick release. Ellsbury has made strides the past few years in the first category, but I still wouldn't say it's a strength so much as no longer a weakness. The second is obviously a weakness. 

 

If he's going to be playing LF it should be in a park with a lot of room out there, where his speed matters. And of course if that park had a short porch in right, that would suit him even better.

 

(Shudder.)

 

Not that Seattle wouldn't work pretty well for him also. Let's think Seattle.

 

I understand your overall comparison to Crawford and their skill sets being a mismatch, but if Ellsbury returns to 2011 offensive status, it would more than outweigh his deficiencies with the arm. He would be a top 5 LF in the game. I'm not saying they should take that route, but I would feel a lot better about giving him a 9 figure deal to play left in Fenway, if he looks to have returned to being that big an offensive guy, than I did Crawford.

[OttoC]

Played entire game on 27 April, then missed games on 28 and 29 April. Supposedly had sore shoulder. Came back on 30 April and played in the first two games in May (2,3) but was pinch-hit for in the 6th inning on the 3rd and has missed the ten games since. Does anyone have any further word on his health?

[Joshv02]

http://soxprospects....uries/index.htm

On DL since May 6 with right biceps tendinitis. It was posted in the main board.