118 replies to this topic

[ifmanis5]

Here are Avery Bradley's numbers starting at SG for Ray Allen...




Positives: When paired with Rondo they are a defensive terror. 4-0 in this stretch, albeit against mostly poor teams.
Negatives: A shooting guard with no 3-point threat and limited shooting range, so spacing becomes a problem. Small sample size.

Is Avery the Celtics future at shooting guard? Could this work?

[collings94]

At his best, Avery could be an elite defensive stopper kind of like Tony Allen. Bradley needs to develop a consistent offensive game though because you can't have your staring guards both be awful shooters.

[ivanvamp]

At his best, Avery could be an elite defensive stopper kind of like Tony Allen. Bradley needs to develop a consistent offensive game though because you can't have your staring guards both be awful shooters.

You might be able to if they were both excellent rebounders and your bigs were really good shooters. I mean, that's unorthodox, but it could work. Spread the floor, have your guards drive to the basket and kick out to the big men who can really stroke the three. It draws the other big men out to defend, leaving your own guards in to rebound against their guards. And if your guards are excellent rebounders, you have the advantage there.

On the defensive end, your bigs do the bulk of the rebounding work while your guards lock down the other teams' primary scoring threats (who are usually guards).

[ivanvamp]

Here are Avery Bradley's numbers starting at SG for Ray Allen...




Positives: When paired with Rondo they are a defensive terror. 4-0 in this stretch, albeit against mostly poor teams.
Negatives: A shooting guard with no 3-point threat and limited shooting range, so spacing becomes a problem. Small sample size.

Is Avery the Celtics future at shooting guard? Could this work?

Not sure he has the ability at this point to put these numbers up consistently, but these are encouraging stats. 15 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 53.5% from the floor, 12-13 from the line, plus excellent defense. You can live with that out of your 2. But he's only 6'2", so between him and Rondo, they don't have any size to deal with the bigger 2-guards in the league.

Still, hopeful signs that Bradley could become a really nice NBA player.

[Koufax]

I see him as a combo guard, getting time at the 1 and the 2. There are many 2s in the league who are just too big for him. He would be a very good guy off of the bench.

[TripleOT]

Maybe Bradley has a few problems with bigger SGs shooting over his 6'2" frame, but good luck with them putting the ball on the floor against him. Wesley Johnson was too petrified to dribble at all against AB last night. Of course, Wesley Johnson sucks, but it was a good example of how lankier 2 guards will struggle with taking AB off the dribble when he doesn't allow them to dribble freely without a lot of harassment.

Bradley continues to cut hard and move around purposefully on offense, and Rondo is making things quite easy for him. Against Minny, AB was 6-6 from inside the paint at halftime, with all the shots taken withing a foot or so of the rim. I'm not ready to call Springfield just yet, but the kid is making th e most of his opportunities, and offensively he's showing a ton more confidence.

The Cs are 8-1 when Ray Allen doesn't play. Is that merely a coincidence, or is it because the people getting Ray's minutes, mostly Bradley, are contributing more with all around play than Allen, who seems more sedentary when it comes to many facets of the game. He still runs OK off picks, but too many times this season he stood around while younger and quicker opponents drove to the hoop or crashed the boards.

Edited by TripleOT, 31 March 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Sprowl]

I see him as a combo guard, getting time at the 1 and the 2. There are many 2s in the league who are just too big for him. He would be a very good guy off of the bench.

Yeah, I think Bradley's future is as a combo guard. He could be posted up by a 6'6 2-guard, and might lose some of his defensive intensity when trailing a 2-guard who moves without the ball. Getting the best out of Bradley right now means having him harass the ballhandler on defense, but spreading the floor on offense. He's showing some definite improvement in ballhandling and recognition as a playmaker when he gets the ball on a rotation, usually by faking the shot, driving the lane, and looking to make a handoff inside or a kickout to a shooter spotting up. In a few years he might be able to initiate the set the way that Rondo does now, but right now he's a much worse player when Rondo is out of the game and Bradley has to bring the ball up against pressure.

[cumicon]

It seems that a lot of people have written him off as a point guard. I'm not ready to do that. I think he can be a great pick and roll player with his ability to knock down that mid range shot, and his quickness can get him to the rim. When he is leading the second unit I would like to see him get more opportunities in the pick and roll. His shot looks really good and I would be surprised if he doesn't become a respectable 3 point shooter in the future.

Also, why doesn't he guard the opposing teams point guard when he is playing the 2 with Rondo? He is the best on ball defending guard in the league, it seems like a waste to leave him guarding the other team's 2 guard where he spends a lot of time off the ball standing around. Not to mention Rondo has more size and would be a better match with most team's 2 guard.

[dolomite133]

I don't think you can take a small sample size and extraploate it to this extent. Will Bradley be our starting shooting guard next season? Possibly, by default. Will he be as productive as Ray Allen 2012? Hard to say. Depends on the supporting cast. Is Bradley best suited as a backup combo guard? The opinion here seems to be yes. Perhaps a Bruce Bowen type?

We all know Bradley was a highly regarded prospect when he was younger. Can he deliver on this potential, albeit a little later than originally projected, once the Big Three move out of the way and he gets a chance. He's making a case that, at the very least, he deserves a chance to show whether he can or not.

[Koufax]

He is only 21 years old and is progressing quite nicely. He just doesn't have the size to be a career 2. He might be our 2 next year, but sooner or later the Celtics will draft or hire someone three inches taller with a good outside shot, and then Avery will be used at the 2 primarily when the opposing 2 doesn't have 3 or 4 inches on him.

[RoDaddy]

I think another valid question to ask is whether Ray Ray can come off the bench. I've wondered about this for the last 3 years as a way to keep his minutes down as he ages. There are already reasons why I can see that this would be tough to pull off, firstly because Ray might not even be willing to do this after a lifetime as a starter. It's also very late in the year to be experimenting with something new, and furthermore, Rondo-Bradley as a starting combo really only works against certain teams with smaller backcourts or weak shooters. Still, on a team with very little chance of winning a championship this year, this type of move might give it a last minute shot in the arm. It also might be worth considering for next year if Ray resigns.

[Koufax]

Asking Ray to come offf the bench this year would be counterproductive -- too upsetting. If he were to be with the team next year (which I doubt) and insist on starting (possible) it would nonetheless be possible to give Avery serious minutes by having him back up both Rondo and Ray. Furthermore, who starts the game is less important than who finishes it. In situations where defensive stops are important, Avery would be on the floor at the end and Ray would be sitting. Ray would end up as the offensive sniper, Avery as the all-around player.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

On Avery being too small at the 2: Theoretically, who are these guards that'll be exploiting him? I mean, it's one thing to say he's small in a vaccumm, but in the Eastern conference I'd take my chances against pretty much anyone. It'd be one thing if T-Mac were in his prime, but if Miami wanted to try and post up D-Wade or run plays with him shooting over AB I say bring it, be my guest. What are we worried about? JJ Redick going to town on Avery Bradley?

[Sprowl]

On Avery being too small at the 2: Theoretically, who are these guards that'll be exploiting him? I mean, it's one thing to say he's small in a vaccumm, but in the Eastern conference I'd take my chances against pretty much anyone. It'd be one thing if T-Mac were in his prime, but if Miami wanted to try and post up D-Wade or run plays with him shooting over AB I say bring it, be my guest. What are we worried about? JJ Redick going to town on Avery Bradley?

Don't cherry-pick a short spot-up shooter to address the argument -- it just makes clear how much you've missed the point. We're worried about, for examples, the following Eastern Conference shooting guards going to town on Avery Bradley in the post, or simply jumping over him:

Paul George 6'8
Evan Turner 6'7
Ronnie Brewer 6'7
Monta Ellis 6'3, but has hops
Marshon Brooks 6'5, with a good lean-in game
Demar Derozan 6'7, with amazing hops
Jason Richardson 6'6

[Kutcher Era Youth]

Ha! I didn't miss anything. Like I said, look at the cast of characters you've named......"Oh shit Ronnie Brewer went off and scored 40 on us because he had the height advantage over AB. Oh sure, he can barely shoot due to a childhood injury, but still..." Does this seem like a plausible sentence to you? You really think those jokers you named will victimize AB? Really? Jason Richardson? He's toast. He's okay still, but he's toast. To be fair, I don't know a ton about Paul George. The rest, they are not going to jump over AB. They're simply not good enough. Marshon Brooks is simply not going to beat us because he shot over AB over and over in a game.


Edit: Just looked at this post and realized it seemed a bit douchey:..Of course I won't deny that all these people you named are in fact bigger than AB, I just have serious doubts about it ever mattering.........my main point being that likely whover we'd draft or sign would be a lesser defender than AB is.

Edited by Kutcher Era Youth, 01 April 2012 - 02:56 PM.

[Sprowl]

Dwyane Wade reinforces Bradley's vulnerability in the post by simply jumping over him in the right block. Then Bradley blocks Wade at the rim. It's a good matchup. Now that the league has had time to look at video of Bradley's breakout games, we should expect every other team to try posting him up, simply as an element of basic preparation by opposing coaches. Wade, Derozan, Turner, George, Brewer and Ginobili are all coming up on the Celtics' schedule, so Bradley should have plenty of opportunities to prove me wrong.

[ifmanis5]

Bradley held his own today for sure.

[Brickowski]

He kinda looks like our present shooting guard. Loved his defense on Wade today.

Edited by Brickowski, 02 April 2012 - 02:19 AM.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I hate to say it, but this team looks so much better with Bradley in the game than Ray. The spacing was better; the ball movement was better - maybe that's because Paul is better when he's the one running off screens and Rondo is a lot better when he doesn't have to sit there waiting for Ray to try to get open.

And defensively - wow. It was clear that Wade was afraid to put the ball on the floor against Bradley - Wade did most of his damage when someone else was guarding him (or got switched onto him). And I am with KEY - how many people in the modern era NBA are going to be able to take Bradley down in the post and make a living on it?

I mean I don't know if anyone has been able to quantify it, but Bradley may be three or four buckets a game worse on offense but on defense, he has to be worth twice that compared to Ray.

Doc is in a tough situation.

[Koufax]

It says here that Ray is fine coming off the bench.

http://www.celticsbl...bench?ref=yahoo

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Kenyon Dooling - Avey is the best perimter defender in the league. C's are 5 points per 100 better on defense when Bradley is on the court.

[BigSoxFan]

It says here that Ray is fine coming off the bench.

http://www.celticsbl...bench?ref=yahoo

Yeah, i think the most logical solution is to have Ray come off the bench. The first unit has enough offense with Pierce, KG, and Bass and the 2nd unit needs a scoring boost.

[CaptainLaddie]

Funny, Jose Melendez and I were talking about this very thing tonight. Ray off the bench w/ the 2nd unit makes too much sense.

[Brickowski]

Yes, Ray could come off the bench as the designated shooter a la Dell Curry or Downtown Freddie Brown. He would be spending less time defending elite sgs and more time doing what he does best.

[BigSoxFan]

My favorite part of Bradley's block on Wade was Wade motioning to the ref that he was pushed. Holy shit is he insufferable.

[Jed Zeppelin]

It must have felt like he had been pushed when he was sitting on his ass watching the ball fly away from the hoop instead of toward it.

[simplyeric]

Does anyone have a gif of the block, or a link? I was watching, and loved it, but would love to see it again...

[PaulinMyrBch]

[mwonow]

Here's one:

[wutang112878]

Regarding keeping Bradley in the starting lineup I think we all agree that Bradley is better than Ray defensively, not much debate there. We probably also agree that Ray is a better 3 point shooter and much less likely to be posted up than Bradley if teams start doing their scouting homework on his height. But I think the x-factor in this decision is actually Rondo.

Its been my theory that pretty much since 08 as Rondo goes so goes our offense. Rondo has been tearing it up lately, and it seems the slashing style of Rondo and Bradley works well together when Rondo is on one of these streaks. But while Rondo has been on this assist streak both KG and Pierce have looked much, much better as well, I dont think thats all a coincidence. I hope they keep rolling like this, but I am curious to see what Bradley and this offense would look like if Rondo isnt dishing out 10 assists a night, I would imagine he would come back down to earth and it will should be easier to evaluate him.

[jmcc5400]

I am curious to see what Bradley and this offense would look like if Rondo isnt dishing out 10 assists a night, I would imagine he would come back down to earth and it will should be easier to evaluate him.

I think Bradley is one of the reasons for Rondo's increased totals. Better defense means more transition opportunities and I think the cutting and ball movement is better with AB on the floor.

[TheDeuce222]

I for one just want to contest the notion that Bradley is a sub-par shooter and the Celtics are somehow at a severe disadvantage having two sub-par shooters in the starting lineup. Too many people have come to the conclusion that Bradley is just not a shooter because of limited minutes last year (a grand total of 162, or basically the equivalent of what he has played in the last five games) and the first month of this season. Avery Bradley is already a passable jump shooter and has the potential to be a significantly above average jump shooter in my opinion.

Bradley was a very good shooter in high school, and a decent shooter in college. In his one season at Texas, he shot .432 overall (not great, but not atrocious), and he was 42/112 from the college three point line - a very respectable 37.5%. Furthermore, in a small sample size, he is shooting 81% from the line this year (42/52). Finally, 82 games.com suggests that his effective field goal percentage on jump shots is a respectable 38.2%. http://www.82games.com/1112/11BOS2.HTM

Is he the second coming of Ray Allen as a shooter? Clearly not. But he has a pure stroke that he repeats consistently (unlike some young shooters who struggle with consistency and then mess around with mechanics), he is clearly becoming more comfortable taking shots, and in concert with his bread and butter cutting and impressive finishing ability for a player his size and age, his shooting will be a weapon for this team, now and in the future. I think Bradley is almost already better on offense than Tony Allen ever was for us (Allen has improved a lot in the offensive department in the last two years with the Grizzlies).

I strongly feel that Ray should come off the bench to play with the Stiemsma/Dooling group to inject some scoring there. Bradley fits very nicely with what we want to do on offense and defense right now with the starters, especially in terms of the transition game and getting easy baskets, and Rondo, Bradley, and Allen will all need to play a lot of minutes in the playoffs in the event that Pietrus can't come back. There should be more than enough minutes for all, and we can certainly go offense/defense with Ray and Avery (or play them both with Bass on the bench) in the closing minutes of games.

Edited by TheDeuce222, 02 April 2012 - 11:29 AM.

[wutang112878]

I think Bradley is one of the reasons for Rondo's increased totals. Better defense means more transition opportunities and I think the cutting and ball movement is better with AB on the floor.

Bradley began starting and getting serious minutes on 3/25, in those 5 games Rondo is averaging 13.8 assists per game. In the previous 15 games, where Bradley wasnt getting major minutes but was getting about 15 min per game, Rondo averaged 12.3 assist per game. So yes its down slightly but the 15 is a much larger sample. Just my opinion but Rondo has been in some type of bleep you, or I will show you, or whatever his attitude is mode and has just been in another gear for the past month. I still think Rondo is the engine that drives this offensive train, and as much as he bugs me with his attitude, he does make everyone else look better.

[Reardons Beard]

Anyone who can reject Dwayne Wade on national television is big enough to play SG.

[Statman]

Does anyone have a gif of the block, or a link? I was watching, and loved it, but would love to see it again...

I could watch this all day.

[wutang112878]

Now that I watch that again in slow-mo doesnt it look like Wade jumped, had it blocked, and had it hit his hand before his foot hit the floor? So that should have been a travel.

[Koufax]

As to Avery's shooting, I would say that he is now an average NBA shooter. That is so much better than where we had him pegged at the beginning of the season as to be a spectacular advance. It is not in Ray's league, however.

[Sprowl]

As to Avery's shooting, I would say that he is now an average NBA shooter. That is so much better than where we had him pegged at the beginning of the season as to be a spectacular advance. It is not in Ray's league, however.

His shot is definitely improving, but even more so, his instinct to fake the jumper and drive the lane to hand off to a big man for the finish. He's not much of a playmaker for a backup point guard, but for an off-guard he is very good about making the extra pass to create an improved shooting opportunity.

[ivanvamp]

Now that I watch that again in slow-mo doesnt it look like Wade jumped, had it blocked, and had it hit his hand before his foot hit the floor? So that should have been a travel.

No it shouldn't. Once the ball was blocked, it was no longer in Wade's possession so there can't be a travel. Doesn't matter at all that he touched it again...he never regained control of it. Easy call for the refs there.

The bummer about that play, of course, is that that amazing block knocked the ball right to Battier, who nailed a 3, so in hindsight (not that it mattered to the outcome of the game) that sequence cost the Celtics a point. (not that Bradley could possibly have known that as he was going up to block the shot)

[simplyeric]

No it shouldn't. Once the ball was blocked, it was no longer in Wade's possession so there can't be a travel. Doesn't matter at all that he touched it again...he never regained control of it. Easy call for the refs there.

The bummer about that play, of course, is that that amazing block knocked the ball right to Battier, who nailed a 3, so in hindsight (not that it mattered to the outcome of the game) that sequence cost the Celtics a point. (not that Bradley could possibly have known that as he was going up to block the shot)

addition by subtraction...or rather, subtraction by addition.

While in the short term it resulted in +1 for the Heat, in the long run it was part of the long demoralization of Wade and the Heat, which resulted in a bigger win for the C's.

(this is obviously pure speculation)

[swingin val]

Don't cherry-pick a short spot-up shooter to address the argument -- it just makes clear how much you've missed the point. We're worried about, for examples, the following Eastern Conference shooting guards going to town on Avery Bradley in the post, or simply jumping over him:

Paul George 6'8
Evan Turner 6'7
Ronnie Brewer 6'7
Monta Ellis 6'3, but has hops
Marshon Brooks 6'5, with a good lean-in game
Demar Derozan 6'7, with amazing hops
Jason Richardson 6'6

How many of these guys have any semblance of a post game though? Just because they are taller than him doesn't mean that they can score down low.

[Sprowl]

How many of these guys have any semblance of a post game though? Just because they are taller than him doesn't mean that they can score down low.

Derozan, George, Turner, Ellis, Brooks and Wade have serious offensive skills beyond range. Richardson and Brewer, not so much, although Richardson can jump as well as spot up. Derozan, George and Turner in particular will be giving defenders fits for the next decade, and they're all in the Eastern conference.

[JakeRae]

Derozan, George, Turner, Ellis, Brooks and Wade have serious offensive skills beyond range. Richardson and Brewer, not so much, although Richardson can jump as well as spot up. Derozan, George and Turner in particular will be giving defenders fits for the next decade, and they're all in the Eastern conference.

But, most of those serious offensive skills involve putting the ball on the floor and driving to the rim. These guys aren't post-up players. They might be able to do it, but it's not an integral part of their games such that they'll be comfortable backing Bradley down all game long. And, while Bradley is likely vulnerable to being backed down in the post, he's a nightmare for bigger 2 guards whose offense is based off of dribble penetration. The production of opposing 2-guards during Bradley's time in the starting lineup supports this position.

Also, if we're talking about opposing teams and players needing to completely alter their offensive sets to generate production because of Bradley's perimeter defense, it's probably a net-positive for the team. And, Bradley's quickness makes him a huge challenge for opposing 2's to guard as well, as we can seen born out in his offensive production of late.

The normal paradigm is that combo/swing players have more success offensively when playing up a position (2 instead of 1, 4 instead of 3) and less defensive success. If Bradley is anomalous on defense and isn't getting taken advantage of there, the Celtics could be in a rare position of getting all of the offensive benefit of his being undersized without taking the traditional defensive hit.

[Sprowl]

But, most of those serious offensive skills involve putting the ball on the floor and driving to the rim. These guys aren't post-up players.

I picked those names because they do not depend on putting the ball on the floor, and they have the size, bulk and hops to give Bradley problems. Very few 2-guards are primarily post players, but that doesn't mean they won't take a gimmee if it's there, just the way Rondo did a few weeks ago when other teams tried to cheat on him. It didn't take Doc very long to put in a few Rondo post-up plays, and then to milk them for all they were worth.

In most matchups shooting guards don't need to be post-up players, but that does not mean that they are unable to operate in the post. Derozan and George can take most 2-guards off the dribble, but they can also operate in the post. Turner specializes in the off-balance mid-range game, the kind of moves that work in the post or at the elbows. Ginobili is another leaner, and Brooks is an up-and-coming leaner. None of them need to try to dribble around Bradley, which would play into Bradley's strengths. Bradley showed up well against Wade. He'll have to do the same every game for the next two weeks.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I think I side with Bradley on the "too short to cover big 2's" debate. More specifically, I side with the Celtics.

When players post up, it's pretty hard to keep that isolation for more then 2-3 seconds before another player comes in to pressure the man with the ball. Doc made a point to say that Bradley got a lot of "team defense help" against the Heat. I think the Celtics can help cover for Avery's height issues, as long as the team defense remains strong anyway.

Edited by Kenny F'ing Powers, 03 April 2012 - 08:14 AM.

[CreightonGubanich]

I'm more concerned about Bradley's shooting than his defense. He uses his body well and he's athletic enough. I think I'd worry more about guys shooting over him than posting him up, but look around the league at the 2-guard position - there's not a lot of 2002 Kobe Bryants out there anymore, the classic 6'-6" guys with range and great athleticism. The bigger problem, I think, is can he shoot well enough to play in the same backcourt as Rajon Rondo. He looks to be making strides, and it kinda works right now because all three members of the Celtics front court have range out to 20 feet or so. But play him with a true under-the-basket big man, and that space in the lane will dry up pretty quick.

To me, he profiles more as a combo guard, but that's no knock on Avery. Good teams need guys like him. He's made enough progress in his ballhandling that he's not a Tony Allen-esque nightmare out there, even if he's not really a playmaker. In whatever role, he's now a legitimate piece of the puzzle.

[Brickowski]

Bradley stays in front of his man. He fights through picks. He also uses his hands very well when the man he's guarding puts the ball on the floor. If you can turn the other sg into a jump shooter, you generally win the battle. When a guy comes off a pick, turns the corner and heads for the rim-- or cuts to the basket without the ball-- that's when he's really dangerous. Bradley takes most of that away.

There are nights when a Kobe or a Wade will kill you from 18 ft or by posting up and shooting fallaways. C'est la vie. Ray Allen wouldn't be blocking those shots either.

Edited by Brickowski, 03 April 2012 - 10:39 AM.

[BellhornIsGod]

Just saw on Comcast that Doc said "If Ray plays tomorrow he will be starting" or something to that effect.

If you told me at the beginning of the season when Ray got hurt 3 games ago that I would be slightly disappointed by that I would have thought you were fucking insane. Shows how far Bradley has come and it's not the worst problem in the world to have.

Bradley/Dooling/Sasha/Stiemsma is a dreadful bench for instant offense but it has to be one of the better defensive benches in the league with Bradley's ability to lock down most 2's, Sasha's above average defense on bigger 3's and Stiemsma's shot blocking ability.

Edited by BellhornIsGod, 03 April 2012 - 04:14 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm fine with Ray starting as long as they don't continue ruining multiple possessions just so he can run around screens and not get open. It rarely seems to work - I think the only one that works with anything approaching consistency is when he runs along the baseline to the corner and Rondo slides the pass just behind the guy setting the pick. He can get just as many quality shots simply playing within the flow of the offense.

I'd also add the caveat that Doc should make sure Bradley and Rondo still get time together in the backcourt. I'm also intrigued to see how well Bradley's confidence on offense carries over to the bench. Can he still get it done without as much talent around him? Should be a good test for him.

[Koufax]

Really with the game that Stiemsma is giving you, it is hard to miss JO. That is almost as incredible as the progress that Bradley has made this year, but not quite.