23 replies to this topic

[absintheofmalaise]

Excellent post by @williamnyy23 over at The Captain's Blog on the K rate Ortiz put up in 2011. Thought y'all might be interested in it.

Besides Ortiz, only one other player in baseball history struck out 62 fewer times in consecutive 500 PA seasons (within a band of +/- 10 PAs between the two years). In 1975,

Jeff Burroughs

led the American league with 155 strikeouts, but managed to trim that total to 93 in 1976, despite coming to the plate nine

more

times, which actually makes his accomplishment more impressive. Otherwise, only six other players experienced a decline of at least 40 strikeouts from one 500 PA season to the next.

Perhaps more important than how Ortiz was able to avoid striking out in 2011 is whether he will be able to repeat that performance in 2012. It might seem like a difficult task for a big slugger like Ortiz to maintain such a low strike rate, but a look at his career rates suggests 2010 may be the real outlier. Although Ortiz has had success while striking out at higher rates, the DH’s continued ability to avoiding going down on strikes could dictate the level of his performance in 2012, making his contact rates a bellwether Red Sox fans might want to monitor during the season.

[RedOctober3829]

After reading the article, it seems to me that it was a combination of factors. The biggest factor to me is that pitchers were more aggressive in the zone earlier in the count and his bat speed was better in 2011 than in 2010 which is reflected in his contact percentage increase We will see if pitchers change their approach and make him chase early in the count this year.

[EddieYost]

This piqued my interest. I remember Jeff Burroughs having a couple of really outstanding seasons, sprinkled in with some mediocre seasons. I saw this post and immediately thought that cutting way down on his K rate must have helped him have 1 of those great seasons. Then I looked it up and his 3 best season were 1974, 1977, and 1978. The high K season was 1975, followed by the big reduction in strikeouts in 1976. Unfortunately, he was pretty bad in 1975 (.724 ops) and even worse in 1976 (.684 ops). After the big drop in strikeouts in 1976, he spiked back up in strikeouts in 1977 (and had a great year), then went back down in 1978 (and had another great year).

So, I am not sure what to make of the drop in strikeouts. Does it mean anything, or is it just an interesting statistical anomaly?

Edited by EddieYost, 28 March 2012 - 09:19 PM.

[TFisNEXT]

It will be interesting to see how he responds this year. You would think that pitchers might not be so aggressive with him in 2012 after his success last year. You wonder if after his 2009 season and early on in 2010 the book on him was that he was toast and they just came after him, but that wouldn't really explain why they kept coming after him in 2011 since he tore the cover off the ball in 2010 after his horrible April.

His O-contact % has gone up pretty good the last two seasons, so he's hitting pitches out of the strikezone too, is that sustainable?

[mauidano]

Watching him hit, he can be very selective and really gets "his" strike zone even against LHP. He has a great eye. So when he does bitch at the umpire about a call, Papi is usually right.

[Doctor G]

It is possible that his wrist problems getting better has allowed him to adjust his swing path to foul off pitches that he couldn't or wouldn't get to before.

[Ed Hillel]

Ortiz hinted at having problems off the field when he was slumping, and I think it may have been as simple as the fact that the stress got to him and affected his performance on the field. Ortiz was clearly pressing at the plate and was showing more frustration for a sustained time than we had ever seen from him. The last year and a half has demonstated that he hasn't lost his physical ability.

[TFisNEXT]

Does anyone have a spray chart for Ortiz last year vs his career? It seemed like he was going to left field a bit more for base hits and doubles but that could only be confirmed objectively by a spray chart comparison.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Papi raved about Gonzo's hitting knowledge all last year. At one point, he said he learned more from Gonzo in just one year than he did from Manny in seven (wrap your head around that). Gonzalez basically just told him to stay on top and inside the ball. Well, Papi absolutely mashed lefties last year compared to what he had done the year prior and pretty much throughout his entire career.

Season	Split	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2010	vs L as L	6.5%	28.5%	0.23	0.275	0.324	0.599	0.103	0.307	14.5	-8.5	0.268	57
2011	vs L as L	13.4%	16.4%	0.82	0.423	0.566	0.989	0.237	0.371	40.2	17.6	0.426	167
Career	vs L as L	9.5%	20.2%	0.47	0.334	0.471	0.805	0.21	0.291	254.1	30.1	0.346	107

Does anyone have a spray chart for Ortiz last year vs his career? It seemed like he was going to left field a bit more for base hits and doubles but that could only be confirmed objectively by a spray chart comparison.

It's not a spray chart, but your observations line up with these numbers:

Season	Split	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	Pitches	Balls	Strikes
2010	vs L as L	1.28	18.00%	46.10%	35.90%	10.90%	4.30%	3.40%	100.00%	855	327	528
2011	vs L as L	1.33	23.60%	43.60%	32.90%	4.30%	17.40%	6.60%	0.00%	833	341	492
Career	vs L as L	1.01	18.50%	40.90%	40.50%	9.40%	14.20%	3.60%	50.00%	7392	2892	4500
2010	as L to Left	0.29	16.70%	18.50%	64.80%	14.30%	2.90%	35.00%	100.00%	411	153	258
2011	as L to Left	0.23	22.90%	14.30%	62.90%	10.60%	7.60%	13.30%	0.00%	364	126	238
Career	as L to Left	0.22	18.60%	14.90%	66.50%	13.20%	5.60%	18.70%	83.30%	3695	1332	2363
2010	as L to Center	0.63	12.50%	33.70%	53.80%	1.80%	23.20%	0.00%	0.00%	376	145	231
2011	as L to Center	0.9	19.70%	38.10%	42.20%	4.80%	11.30%	3.60%	0.00%	504	177	327
Career	as L to Center	0.59	17.30%	30.80%	51.90%	3.20%	14.10%	1.90%	0.00%	4264	1544	2717
2010	as L to Right	2.07	20.90%	53.40%	25.80%	7.10%	40.50%	1.10%	0.00%	623	239	384
2011	as L to Right	2.92	22.00%	58.10%	19.90%	2.60%	44.70%	2.70%	0.00%	716	258	458
Total	as L to Right	1.8	22.60%	49.80%	27.70%	6.00%	41.20%	1.80%	0.00%	6654	2443	4211

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 29 March 2012 - 03:52 AM.

[absintheofmalaise]

You can find spray charts over at Texas Leaguers. Just go to the pitch f/x db and go to batters. The first chart is Ortiz from 2011. The next is Ortiz in 2009-2010.

[jodyreeddudley78]

Papi raved about Gonzo's hitting knowledge all last year. At one point, he said he learned more from Gonzo in just one year than he did from Manny in seven (wrap your head around that). Gonzalez basically just told him to stay on top and inside the ball. Well, Papi absolutely mashed lefties last year compared to what he had done the year prior and pretty much throughout his entire career.

Seeing the title, I assumed that the drop in Ortiz's K rate would relate to his 2011 success against lefties. But the blog does a great job in pointing out that the drop was essentially equal against both righties and lefties. He also posted Ortiz's K rate chart from Fangraphs, which paints a nice picture of how '09 and '10 were really the outliers, particularly '10. The biggest change in '11 was his overall success against lefties all around.

Interestingly, but perhaps insignificantly, Ortiz's best years (since joining the Sox) have correlated with batting order stability -- meaning that Ortiz's best years happen to be the years where he is essentially plugged into the batting order in a particular spot and not moved around. In addition, since '04 the spot in the order where he spent the most games ended with the best results.

In '04, he had 91 games batting 3rd and 51 games batting 4th (with 8 games in other line up spots) -- putting up better numbers batting 3rd.

In '05, he had 124 games batting 3rd and 33 games batting 4th (2 games in other spots) -- putting up better numbers batting 3rd.

From '06 - '08, he essentially only batted in the 3rd spot.

In '09, he had 40 games batting 3rd, 23 games batting 4th, 56 games batting 5th, 24 games batting 6th, and 7 games batting elsewhere -- putting up the best numbers batting 5th.

In '10, he had 49 games batting 3rd, 46 games batting 4th, 32 games batting 5th, and 17 games batting in the bottom 4 spots of the line up -- putting up the best numbers batting 3rd (well, really 6th, but not that many games there).

In '11, he had 22 games batting 4th, 108 games batting 5th, and 16 games batting either 3rd, or in the bottom 4 spots of the line up -- putting up the best numbers batting 5th.

I'm not suggesting that there is necessarily a reason for this, it simply struck me as coincidental. I'm sure some of it has to do with protection within the line up or other factors, but perhaps Ortiz finds some comfort in routine within a season. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into something before I go to work.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm just curious why the +/- 10 PAs matters. What if he had 25 more PAs? It seems like a pretty restrictive method for determining which seasons should be included in the comparison.

[sachilles]

I'm sure there are many factors that contribute to it. Certainly Gonzo was a positive influence.
As athletes age, they tend to rely less on athleticism and more on the mental aspects of the game to keep pace. I can only wonder if, if his wrist may have been that point in his career where he realized he can't rely soley on athleticism. As a result he's batting "smarter", combined with renewed athleticism of being healthy.
Part of his legend in Boston are key home runs in clutch situations. It seems to me that the long ball is less of a priotity now than just hitting safely to move the runners along. Whether this is because of the way he is being pitched too, or some other factor, my perception is that he is more content with putting the ball in play

[Super Nomario]

Interestingly, but perhaps insignificantly, Ortiz's best years (since joining the Sox) have correlated with batting order stability -- meaning that Ortiz's best years happen to be the years where he is essentially plugged into the batting order in a particular spot and not moved around. In addition, since '04 the spot in the order where he spent the most games ended with the best results.

In '04, he had 91 games batting 3rd and 51 games batting 4th (with 8 games in other line up spots) -- putting up better numbers batting 3rd.

In '05, he had 124 games batting 3rd and 33 games batting 4th (2 games in other spots) -- putting up better numbers batting 3rd.

From '06 - '08, he essentially only batted in the 3rd spot.

In '09, he had 40 games batting 3rd, 23 games batting 4th, 56 games batting 5th, 24 games batting 6th, and 7 games batting elsewhere -- putting up the best numbers batting 5th.

In '10, he had 49 games batting 3rd, 46 games batting 4th, 32 games batting 5th, and 17 games batting in the bottom 4 spots of the line up -- putting up the best numbers batting 3rd (well, really 6th, but not that many games there).

In '11, he had 22 games batting 4th, 108 games batting 5th, and 16 games batting either 3rd, or in the bottom 4 spots of the line up -- putting up the best numbers batting 5th.

I'm not suggesting that there is necessarily a reason for this, it simply struck me as coincidental. I'm sure some of it has to do with protection within the line up or other factors, but perhaps Ortiz finds some comfort in routine within a season. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into something before I go to work.

There might be a correlation, but I think the causation would be backwards: Ortiz gets moved around when he struggles, and if he's successful he gets left in the same place.

Edited by Super Nomario, 29 March 2012 - 09:50 AM.

[soxfan121]

At one point, he said he learned more from Gonzo in just one year than he did from Manny in seven (wrap your head around that).

Why is it hard to wrap your head around the idea that a LH hitter would be able to offer a LH hitter better advice than a RH hitter? Leaving aside all other factors, this alone would seem to explain Gonzalez having more to teach Ortiz than Ramirez.

[NickEsasky]

Why is it hard to wrap your head around the idea that a LH hitter would be able to offer a LH hitter better advice than a RH hitter? Leaving aside all other factors, this alone would seem to explain Gonzalez having more to teach Ortiz than Ramirez.

I agree, but I find it hilarious that it took Gonzo being traded here for Papi to learn to "hit the inside of the ball." That's Little League knowledge.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Why is it hard to wrap your head around the idea that a LH hitter would be able to offer a LH hitter better advice than a RH hitter? Leaving aside all other factors, this alone would seem to explain Gonzalez having more to teach Ortiz than Ramirez.

.

I agree, but I find it hilarious that it took Gonzo being traded here for Papi to learn to "hit the inside of the ball." That's Little League knowledge.

Certainly valid, soxfan and Nick, I'm sure there was probably a little more to it than that. But hitting is hitting and Manny is one of the greatest RHH's in the history of the game. And Ortiz made those comments midway through the season last year. I don't know how you can read that and not raise your eyebrow a little.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

.
Certainly valid, soxfan and Nick, I'm sure there was probably a little more to it than that. But hitting is hitting and Manny is one of the greatest RHH's in the history of the game. And Ortiz made those comments midway through the season last year. I don't know how you can read that and not raise your eyebrow a little.

I think it's simply a matter of being able to put into words what one is doing. Just because Manny is one of the greatest RHHs of all time, that doesn't mean he can take his abilities, break down how he does it, and explain it to other people. Or at least not explain it in a way that others can apply to themselves. Obviously, it's more complicated than "see ball, hit ball", but it comes so naturally to Manny that he never bothered to try to figure out the whys and hows.

I've often heard it suggested that the best hitters in the world make the poorest hitting coaches/instructors for that very reason. The lesser hitters who had to work harder at the craft had a better understanding of the mechanics of hitting than those for whom things came more naturally.

Perhaps Gonzalez just has a better understanding of the mechanics of his swing and a better ability to communicate those mechanics to other hitters.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think it's simply a matter of being able to put into words what one is doing. Just because Manny is one of the greatest RHHs of all time, that doesn't mean he can take his abilities, break down how he does it, and explain it to other people. Or at least not explain it in a way that others can apply to themselves.

Especially when Manny's first language isn't even English!

[trekfan55]

Especially when Manny's first language isn't even English!

1. Neither is Papi's and that's relevant for this case.
2. It should be though, the guy grew up and was educated in the Us School system (yeah I know, but that's for another part of this board).

Edit: Too many typos because it's not mine either.

Edited by trekfan55, 29 March 2012 - 03:41 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Especially when Manny's first language isn't even English!

Considering Ortiz's first language is the same as Manny's, I don't think the language barrier is the problem, nor did I intend to imply that was the case.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Considering that so is Gonzalez's, I think maybe my post just needed a smiley or something.

[Eric Van]

I'm just curious why the +/- 10 PAs matters. What if he had 25 more PAs? It seems like a pretty restrictive method for determining which seasons should be included in the comparison.

Yeah, this sort of methodological hiccup drive me crazy. Look at all pairs of seasons, both above a certain threshold of PA, and find the largest raw drop in SO rate.

Minimum 475 PA , all players in MLB history with a drop in SO rate of 8% of PA or more:

Unprecedented Papi

Name	Year	Age	SO%1	SO%2	Diff
Belanger, Mark	1969	25	.218	.092	-.127
Kleso, Ryan	1998	27	.250	.135	-.115
Ortiz, David	2011	35	.239	.137	-.102
Jacoby, Brook	1987	27	.214	.118	-.096
Burroughs, Jeff	1976	25	.231	.137	-.094
Higginson, Bobby	1996	25	.221	.129	-.092
Chapman, Sam	1941	25	.173	.082	-.091
Thompson, Jason	1984	29	.205	.115	-.091
Snyder, Cory	1988	25	.270	.181	-.089
McCovey, Willie	1968	30	.205	.117	-.088
Thomson, Bobby	1949	25	.153	.066	-.088
Fryman, Travis	1995	26	.243	.156	-.087
Maddox, Garry	1973	23	.203	.118	-.085
Clift, Harlond	1935	22	.152	.069	-.083
Wagner, Leon	1965	31	.171	.089	-.082
Parker, Wes	1969	29	.167	.086	-.081
DeShields, Delino	1997	28	.194	.113	-.081

[Alternate34]

I think it's simply a matter of being able to put into words what one is doing. Just because Manny is one of the greatest RHHs of all time, that doesn't mean he can take his abilities, break down how he does it, and explain it to other people. Or at least not explain it in a way that others can apply to themselves. Obviously, it's more complicated than "see ball, hit ball", but it comes so naturally to Manny that he never bothered to try to figure out the whys and hows.

I've often heard it suggested that the best hitters in the world make the poorest hitting coaches/instructors for that very reason. The lesser hitters who had to work harder at the craft had a better understanding of the mechanics of hitting than those for whom things came more naturally.

Perhaps Gonzalez just has a better understanding of the mechanics of his swing and a better ability to communicate those mechanics to other hitters.

I also think that Manny's swing is one of the best right handed swings I've seen. On some level, you can't teach a guy a perfect swing if his swing is already a lot different. The righty lefty difference as mentioned earlier would exacerbate this as well.