All of this assumes all the positives will happen the same way as last year including: [snip - laundry list].
No, it doesn't. Even regression from what-happened-to-go-well last season doesn't change the fact that this year's team is chock-full of talent that should be good for 95 wins.
Now granted, the only reason the Sox were able to weather the extraordinary bad luck to their pitching staff, and stay in contention for the playoffs through the end of the season, is because of their extraordinary bounceback seasons from Ellsbury, Beckett, Aceves, and Ortiz. However, if they had gotten better luck with their 3-4-5 starters, Youkilis, Crawford, and Drew along with those good breaks...well, I think we're still talking about the "Best Team Ever" because that would have been an unstoppable juggernaut.
But I don't think those of us who are optimistic are all pie-in-the-sky. Most of where the Sox. Have. Depth. is where their greatest offensive questions are: SS defense (Iglesias), 3B injury protection substitute (Middlebrooks), C batting production (Lavarnway), and DH age-related decline hedge (again, Lavarnway). Pitching is another story, and its tale will be told over the course of the season. With average-to-good luck regarding that, it will have a happy end. If not, it probably won't.
But assuming that this year's team will suffer similarly catastrophic injuries as in the last two years, doesn't make much sense to me. And the team is still frickin' stacked.