24 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

The New England Patriots have agreed to terms on a one-year contract with free agent cornerback Will Allen, a league source confirmed on Wednesday.

http://www.macsfootb...th-cb-will.html

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

They took the wrong 34 year old out of the Miami secondary.

Still, the depth can't hurt. He's not awful.

[soxfan121]

Thirty-four, coming off some injury plagued years in Miami, has played both CB and S.

Another veteran lottery ticket/camp depth signing.

[dcmissle]

Can't hurt. How much can it help? A guy responsible for 10 sacks last year is on the verge of signing in Buffalo.

When you are mediocre on the back end and can't bring heat on the front end, you are in trouble on defense.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

It can help a lot more then having a guy like Malcolm Williams on your roster.

The thought is that Dowling, McCourty, Arrington should be able to fill your nickle package. If they get hurt, it be nice to have someone come off the bench besides Sterling Moore. Allen could step in and compete with the top 3 CBs in training camp. That says as much about our CB situation as it does to Allen, but the situation is what it is.

[dcmissle]

It can help a lot more then having a guy like Malcolm Williams on your roster.

The thought is that Dowling, McCourty, Arrington should be able to fill your nickle package. If they get hurt, it be nice to have someone come off the bench besides Sterling Moore. Allen could step in and compete with the top 3 CBs in training camp. That says as much about our CB situation as it does to Allen, but the situation is what it is.

Agreed.

Any thoughts on the pass rush?

[Stitch01]

Agreed.

Any thoughts on the pass rush?

Most obvious area of need, but given that we still have the draft and that we signed Carter and Anderson in August last year still way too early in the offseason to get too worked up.

[Mystic Merlin]

Most obvious area of need, but given that we still have the draft and that we signed Carter and Anderson in August last year still way too early in the offseason to get too worked up.

Few points:

1.) They signed Carter and Anderson in August because free agency began in August. I understand your point that there can be value out there past the perceived cream of the crop, but I'm not sure if that is the case this year. Trevor Scott is one candidate, I suppose, but what outstanding FA fit the Carter/Anderson mold? I see a bunch of chaff myself.

2.) They'll almost certainly bring Carter back, though they can't rely on him to last 14-16 games and a potential playoff. The draft - or hoping Trevor Scott or Markell Carter explode onto the scene - is their path to bolstering LB/DE. They've gotta find someone who can at least give them quality snaps on nickel downs.

3.) I think it is folly to ignore the signing of Fanene. As a DT he doesn't put up big sack totals, but, IMO, he represents an improvement over Ellis/Warren/etc. He's a good candidate to take some pressure off Wilfork in the nickel, and he'll be their best pass-rushing DT right off the bat. Losing Anderson is a blow, but what are you going to do - he priced himself out of their budget with his strong finish and flashy sack total. He's replaceable in terms of compensating for the pass rush value he added, if only in the aggregate (i.e., the sum of upgrades along the front seven rotation).

EDIT - I'm most worried - as always - about what they can throw out there in key spots or in the playoffs, when the war of attrition ends and top-end talent takes over. In other words, I think they won't have much trouble enduring/surviving in the regular season; I do think they'll have trouble when it comes time to make, say, third down stops in the postseason. You need horses on the front to do that, and - right now - it is a work in progress. And the scary thing is that, at least in my view, they need to IMPROVE on their 2011 front seven, not MAINTAIN it. It was good enough to win a Super Bowl (i.e., Welker catch = it's over for all intents and purposes), but they probably played a bit over their heads in the playoffs (i.e., caught fire) defensively and got some favorable matchups on their path to the Super Bowl, where they played a good but not overwhelming opponent. I'm not sure things will fall for them so well this time around; the defense has to improve.

Edited by Mystic Merlin, 21 March 2012 - 01:28 PM.

[Stitch01]

Ha, Im a moron, that explains why they were still there in August! Although IIRC they did sign late in the abbreviated FA period, I think after BB decided to use more 4-3.

Still not going to get too worked up yet. We still have time and assets, and have made a couple of signings to bolster the DL.

[Corsi]

Will Allen's one-year deal with the Patriots is worth $975,000, including a $25,000 signing bonus and a $25,000 workout bonus, per a source.

https://twitter.com/#!/RavensInsider/status/182542236817424384

[dcmissle]

EDIT - I'm most worried - as always - about what they can throw out there in key spots or in the playoffs, when the war of attrition ends and top-end talent takes over. In other words, I think they won't have much trouble enduring/surviving in the regular season; I do think they'll have trouble when it comes time to make, say, third down stops in the postseason. You need horses on the front to do that, and - right now - it is a work in progress. And the scary thing is that, at least in my view, they need to IMPROVE on their 2011 front seven, not MAINTAIN it. It was good enough to win a Super Bowl (i.e., Welker catch = it's over for all intents and purposes), but they probably played a bit over their heads in the playoffs (i.e., caught fire) defensively and got some favorable matchups on their path to the Super Bowl, where they played a good but not overwhelming opponent. I'm not sure things will fall for them so well this time around; the defense has to improve.

This paragraph is gold. We have a high bar, but it's there for a reason, and this is what it comes down to.

Do I like the FA moves so far? Yep. Am I still concerned? Yep. Particularly since there is scant evidence in drafts past (Mayo, but who else) that they are going to address these problems next month in a major way. The mindset, at least on defense, seems to be, can we muddle through?

[j44thor]

It can help a lot more then having a guy like Malcolm Williams on your roster.

The thought is that Dowling, McCourty, Arrington should be able to fill your nickle package. If they get hurt, it be nice to have someone come off the bench besides Sterling Moore. Allen could step in and compete with the top 3 CBs in training camp. That says as much about our CB situation as it does to Allen, but the situation is what it is.

You think an injury riddled 34YO is a better option than Sterling Moore who showed significant flashes at CB? I put Allen in the Gonzalez camp, here for training camp competition, gone before the final 53.

[Super Nomario]

Few points:

1.) They signed Carter and Anderson in August because free agency began in August. I understand your point that there can be value out there past the perceived cream of the crop, but I'm not sure if that is the case this year. Trevor Scott is one candidate, I suppose, but what outstanding FA fit the Carter/Anderson mold? I see a bunch of chaff myself.

Carter was coming off a 2.5 sack year in Washington, and Anderson was coming off a 4-sack year split between Houston and Chicago. So these guys weren't obvious studs at this time last year.

2.) They'll almost certainly bring Carter back, though they can't rely on him to last 14-16 games and a potential playoff. The draft - or hoping Trevor Scott or Markell Carter explode onto the scene - is their path to bolstering LB/DE. They've gotta find someone who can at least give them quality snaps on nickel downs.

I agree, though I would have agreed if you wrote this before last year's draft and they didn't end up taking anybody.

3.) I think it is folly to ignore the signing of Fanene. As a DT he doesn't put up big sack totals, but, IMO, he represents an improvement over Ellis/Warren/etc. He's a good candidate to take some pressure off Wilfork in the nickel, and he'll be their best pass-rushing DT right off the bat. Losing Anderson is a blow, but what are you going to do - he priced himself out of their budget with his strong finish and flashy sack total. He's replaceable in terms of compensating for the pass rush value he added, if only in the aggregate (i.e., the sum of upgrades along the front seven rotation).

This point I think is huge. The Pats have gotten good production out of DE / OLB the past few years - 10 sacks from Carter and Anderson last year, 6.5 from Ninkovich, 15 out of Tully Banta-Cain over two seasons. But they used to get 12-15 sacks between Seymour and other pass-rushers on the DL, guys like Jarvis Green and Mike Wright. They haven't had this the past couple years with the trade of Seymour and injuries to Wright and Myron Pryor. If Fanene can give them 4-6 sacks, they draft a DE who can give them a handful, and Pryor can stay health and give them another 4-5, the pass-rush might be improved even with a dropoff at the OLB spots.

EDIT - I'm most worried - as always - about what they can throw out there in key spots or in the playoffs, when the war of attrition ends and top-end talent takes over.

Do you think this is true? I don't, and based on how he's approaching the offseason it seems like Bill Belichick doesn't, either.

In other words, I think they won't have much trouble enduring/surviving in the regular season; I do think they'll have trouble when it comes time to make, say, third down stops in the postseason. You need horses on the front to do that, and - right now - it is a work in progress. And the scary thing is that, at least in my view, they need to IMPROVE on their 2011 front seven, not MAINTAIN it. It was good enough to win a Super Bowl (i.e., Welker catch = it's over for all intents and purposes), but they probably played a bit over their heads in the playoffs (i.e., caught fire) defensively and got some favorable matchups on their path to the Super Bowl, where they played a good but not overwhelming opponent. I'm not sure things will fall for them so well this time around; the defense has to improve.

[Mystic Merlin]

Do you think this is true? I don't, and based on how he's approaching the offseason it seems like Bill Belichick doesn't, either.

Yes, I do. I analogize it to the NBA and MLB, where player and pitcher rotations shorten/tighten in the postseason as well. You're entering a world where every game is do or die and nearly every game is tightly contested. You can't count on outrunning/outscoring/outpacing teams like you can in the regular season, which is where the Pats make their hay. The game is tighter, both in terms of officiating and style of play; 30+ points probably isn't happening, and you can't expect to get a few key turnovers against the top teams (another BB defensive hallmark of the past few seasons).

Point is, the game comes down much more to a team's ability to line up and win one-on-ones, rather than getting out to 10-14 point leads and picking off a few passes to put the game totally out of reach. I don't think the Pats are built to defensively compete with top teams in close games because they don't have enough talent, and the style/quality of play in the postseason largely preempts you from covering up those deficiencies by playing with big leads. I don't believe the Pats' formula this season is replicable, in short.

And maybe BB disagrees, but given the defenses he has run out there over the past three seasons I think it is fair to question his judgment on this front. And I'm not sure he really disagrees, since I see his problem as not getting enough talent, not his cap approach. He misses with too many defensive picks. They have gone years without acquiring a long-term solution at LB/DE, and the safety/corner positions have deteriorated greatly since '07. They've missed on high picks like Butler, Wheatley, Wilhite, McCourty is coming off an atrocious season, and Dowling is an unknown quantity as of now. Patrick Chung is the lone mainstay.

EDIT - I think the most important question is this: are you comfortable with the defense? I can't imagine anyone saying 'yes'.

Edited by Mystic Merlin, 21 March 2012 - 02:48 PM.

[Super Nomario]

Yes, I do. I analogize it to the NBA and MLB, where player and pitcher rotations shorten/tighten in the postseason as well. You're entering a world where every game is do or die and nearly every game is tightly contested. You can't count on outrunning/outscoring/outpacing teams like you can in the regular season, which is where the Pats make their hay. The game is tighter, both in terms of officiating and style of play; 30+ points probably isn't happening, and you can't expect to get a few key turnovers against the top teams (another BB defensive hallmark of the past few seasons).

This seems like it's true because of how the past two Pats / Giants Super Bowls have gone, but the other SB winners the past few years have scored 31, 31, 27, 29, and 21 points since the last Pats SB win.

Point is, the game comes down much more to a team's ability to line up and win one-on-ones, rather than getting out to 10-14 point leads and picking off a few passes to put the game totally out of reach. I don't think the Pats are built to defensively compete with top teams in close games because they don't have enough talent, and the style/quality of play in the postseason largely preempts you from covering up those deficiencies by playing with big leads. I don't believe the Pats' formula this season is replicable, in short.

OK. I don't think we're working with the same definition of "top-end" talent then. I thought you were talking about Mario Williams / Darrelle Revis kind of top-end talent. If you're talking about the 11 starters on defense and maybe 3-4 key situational players, I agree the Pats need to get better.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

You think an injury riddled 34YO is a better option than Sterling Moore who showed significant flashes at CB? I put Allen in the Gonzalez camp, here for training camp competition, gone before the final 53.

I think Sterling Moore played well last year, but let's not portray him as something he isn't. He was a practice squad safety cast off then caught on as a corner when no other options were left. There's as strong of a possibility that he dissapears and is out of the league in 2 years as he sticks with this team and fills a roll. WIll Allen is older and has injury concerns, but he's a proven commodity and there's just as good of a chance that he has enough left in the tank as Sterling Moore continues his path towards a permanent roster spot.

I don't think (nor did I ever say) that Allen was a better option the Moore. Just that he's another option besides Moore.

[phragle]

3.) I think it is folly to ignore the signing of Fanene. As a DT he doesn't put up big sack totals, but, IMO, he represents an improvement over Ellis/Warren/etc.

Wait, do you think we are going to run a 4-3 base? I'm wondering because you're calling him a DT.

Edited by phragle, 21 March 2012 - 05:35 PM.

[Mystic Merlin]

Wait, do you think we are going to run a 4-3 base? I'm wondering because you're calling him a DT.

They run both looks, but, no, I'm not suggesting he will play the nose in the 3-4. I'm suggesting he will play the 3-technique in the 4-3 and nickel, and the 5-technique in the 3-4, when he's out there.

[phragle]

They run both looks, but, no, I'm not suggesting he will play the nose in the 3-4. I'm suggesting he will play the 3-technique in the 4-3 and nickel, and the 5-technique in the 3-4, when he's out there.

I don't know if it's technically right, but usually saying somebody is a DT means 3 tech, which mean 4-3. So when you called him a DT I thought you were implying we would run a 4-3 base.

Anyway, I thought the hybrid defense is something we only ran this year, no?

[Mystic Merlin]

I don't know if it's technically right, but usually saying somebody is a DT means 3 tech, which mean 4-3. So when you called him a DT I thought you were implying we would run a 4-3 base.

Ah, sorry for the confusion. I was trying to emphasize his value as a nickel rusher, so I called him a DT, sloppily so perhaps.

Anyway, I thought the hybrid defense is something we only ran this year, no?

No.

[phragle]

Ah, sorry for the confusion. I was trying to emphasize his value as a nickel rusher, so I called him a DT, sloppily so perhaps.

Yeah that makes sense too. The nickel part.

No.

Is there a site that shows the ratio of 40 vs 30 fronts over the years?

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Found some interesting analysis on Allen courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

13:35 SIGNING! The Patriots have added to their cornerback ranks by bringing in Will Allen, formerly of the Miami Dolphins. A slot corner specialist, Allen gave up a reception for every 11.6 snaps he was in there (6th best of all slot cornerbacks) and figures to be an upgrade on what the Pats had in 2011 presuming he makes the roster.

Some additional info from Patspulpit.com (never been to the site, not sure how accurate these numbers are, but they're also referencing PFF):

His 419 slot snaps were #1 in the league. He was targeted while in coverage once every 7.1 snaps for 5th best in the league. He allowed 0.81 yards per coverage snap for 3rd best in the league. He allowed a reception once every 11.6 coverage snap for 6th best in the league.

Considering we had Edelman playing slot DB at different points in the season, this move might bring us more value than I initially thought it would.

[Super Nomario]

Found some interesting analysis on Allen courtesy of Pro Football Focus:



Some additional info from Patspulpit.com (never been to the site, not sure how accurate these numbers are, but they're also referencing PFF):



Considering we had Edelman playing slot DB at different points in the season, this move might bring us more value than I initially thought it would.

That is very interesting. The Pats treated slot CB like a different position much of last year (versus outside CB), trying Bodden, Moore, Adams, Edelman, and Jones there but never hitting on a satisfactory solution.

[MentalDisabldLst]

The thought is that Dowling, McCourty, Arrington should be able to fill your nickle package. If they get hurt, it be nice to have someone come off the bench besides Sterling Moore.

Without Sterling Moore, we don't win the AFC, in heartbreaking fashion. That guy deserves to go at least an offseason without anyone making cracks about him.

A million bucks for Will Allen sounds OK, especially given that he'd be displacing Edelman as noted.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Without Sterling Moore, we don't win the AFC, in heartbreaking fashion. That guy deserves to go at least an offseason without anyone making cracks about him.

A million bucks for Will Allen sounds OK, especially given that he'd be displacing Edelman as noted.

Like I said MDL, I like Sterling Moore...but can we not build this guy up more then he is? He also basically gave away the game the play before only the Ravens WR dropped the ball.

Again, I started a thread about why Sterling Moore was the difference maker on defense after the Colts game. Luckily I didn't post it and I decided to see how he played the next week...he was inactive the next three weeks and only came back for the last game of the season. Saved some face on that one.

Again, I like the guy...but...come on man.