60 replies to this topic

[AMcGhie]

With 10 games, left, I think its time to start thinking about things like clinching a playoff birth, capturing the division, playoff seeding, and playoff speculation. Currently the Bruins are the 2nd seed in the East, 2 points ahead of Florida. They have 3 points and 2 games on Ottawa for the division lead. New York is the only EC team that has actually clinched a playoff spot so far. The Atlantic division is currently STACKED as the top 4 teams (by points) in the EC are all in the Atlantic division.

HOWEVER!
The way the playoffs are seeded favors the Bruins greatly because the Atlantic teams will be seeded 1/4/5/6. As the playoffs stand right now, the matchups are as follows:

(1) Rangers vs (8) Washington
(2) Bruins vs (7) Ottawa
(3) Florida vs (6) New Jersey
(4) Pittsburgh vs (5) Philadelphia

Assuming the Rangers beat Washington, they'll take on the winner of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia battle. That means by the ECF, the atlantic teams will have spent a good deal of time tiring themselves out.

The Bruins path to the ECF is thorugh Ottawa and then the Florida/Jersey winner. I'm not guaranteeing victory by any stretch, but I'd rather go through those 3 teams that the Rangers, Penguins or flyers. Even if the B's slip to 3rd, they aren't going to fall into the range where they have to play the 1, 4, or 5 seeds until the ECF.

Regardless, as of today (Wed the 21st) the Bruins magic number is 9points for the playoffs and 13 points for the division. The Atlantic Conference leader (Rangers) magic number on the B's is 10 points.

This, however, feels a lot like 2 years ago. The B's were a 6 seed and drew a beatable Buffalo team in round 1, and then got beat in round 2 (injuries were a huge reason for that). We should't look ahead past round 1 with any more seriousness than a speculative "what if".

Still, the Bruins are starting to play better hockey, and as long as they don't treat Thomas like a mule no one wants, hopefully he'll be somewhat rested for the long playoff run again, he's more important than any other member of the team in repeating.

[j44thor]

Assuming the B's clinch 2/3 the key will be the Southern Conf champion winning their first round.
I want no part of PIT in the 2nd rd and as long as the #2/3 seed advances the B's will be in good shape to do that.

Whoever is #1 should have no prob with the 8 seed lining them up to face the winner of the 4/5 match-up which should be a brutal series.

[mikeford]

Pittsburgh is gonna win that division, man.

[Greg29fan]

Pittsburgh is gonna win that division, man.

yep Bettman is already creaming himself at the thought of a Crosvechkin matchup in the first round.

[AMcGhie]

Speculating if Pit jumps NYR, that still makes PIT/WAS the 1-8 and NYR/PHI as the 4-5. The Bruins need to fall to 8th, or have Ottawa jump them and play out of their minds to climb from 7th up into 5th or 4th. I'd be ok with that too, as that means the Bruins will have had to probably get 16-18 points out of the next 10 games.

[AMcGhie]

yep Bettman is already creaming himself at the thought of a Crosvechkin matchup in the first round.

I think he'd be a lot happier about PHI/PIT in the first round. That has 6 game bloodbath written all over it.

[cshea]

It's hard to outline a path to the Cup, since the league re-seeds after round 1. If the B's wind up in that 2 spot, they could theoretically play anyone from the 3-8 seed in round 2. It's not a bracket like the NCAA tournament.

[AMcGhie]

It's hard to outline a path to the Cup, since the league re-seeds after round 1. If the B's wind up in that 2 spot, they could theoretically play anyone from the 3-8 seed in round 2. It's not a bracket like the NCAA tournament.

I completely forgot that. Still, being the #2 seed does have its perks.

Of the 8 outcomes (assuming the B's win) in round 2:
NYR/FLA/PIT win : B's play FLA
NYR/FLA/PHI win: B's play FLA
NYR/NJD/PIT win: B's play PIT
NYR/NJD/PHI win : B's play PHI
WAS/FLA/PIT win : B's play WAS
WAS/FLA/PHI win: B's play WAS
WAS/NJD/PIT win: B's play WAS
WAS/NJD/PHI win : B's play WAS

only 2/8 against AD teams, but those two do seem like they could happen.

//bored at work.

[SidelineCameras]

There could be a ton of last-second movement within the division the last week of the season. Pittsburgh has a very interesting last four regular season games - Philly, Boston, NYR, and Philly. The Rangers and Flyers play each other as well. The Devils don't have any division games except the Islanders in their last week.

[TheRealness]

Pittsburgh is gonna win that division, man.

Yeah, I would be shocked if the Rangers hold on to the 1 seed. Pittsburgh looks like the best team in hockey right now.

I'd love for them to get Ottawa first. I'd love to stay the fuck away from Buffalo should they make a push, and I'm "meh" on the Caps. I suspect Washington surpasses Florida, and Florida and Buffalo battle it out for the 8 seed.

[FL4WL3SS]

Yeah, I would be shocked if the Rangers hold on to the 1 seed. Pittsburgh looks like the best team in hockey right now.

I'd love for them to get Ottawa first. I'd love to stay the fuck away from Buffalo should they make a push, and I'm "meh" on the Caps. I suspect Washington surpasses Florida, and Florida and Buffalo battle it out for the 8 seed.

Wait - you think Washington is going to make up 5 points on Florida with only 9 games left and while Florida has a game in hand? That'll be quite the run.

[ForceAtHome]

Yeah, I would be shocked if the Rangers hold on to the 1 seed. Pittsburgh looks like the best team in hockey right now.

I'd love for them to get Ottawa first. I'd love to stay the fuck away from Buffalo should they make a push, and I'm "meh" on the Caps. I suspect Washington surpasses Florida, and Florida and Buffalo battle it out for the 8 seed.

I'm not optimistic that Washington will pass Florida. Florida is up 5 points with a game in hand. Not only that, but Florida's schedule is much easier.

Florida: @Car, Edm, NYI, @Mon, @Min, @ Cls @ Det, Wpg, @Was, Car (4 home, 6 road)
Washington: @Phi, Wpg, Min, Buf, @Bos, Mon, @TB, Fla, @NYR (5 home, 4 road)

Both play Winnipeg, Minnesota, Montreal, and each other. That leaves the Panthers with Carolina twice, Edmonton, Columbus, and the Islanders. @Detroit is their only unique playoff-bound opponent. The Caps will have @Philly, Buffalo, @Boston, Tampa, and @Rangers instead.

[TheRealness]

Wait - you think Washington is going to make up 5 points on Florida with only 9 games left and while Florida has a game in hand? That'll be quite the run.

Yeah, I should probably have looked at the standings. I could have sworn they were only two points back.

And yeah, probably not making that up. Which means Washington could get the 7th seed, and I would like to avoid them, although they don't scare me a whole lot.

[locknload]

Not only that but FLA has a pretty soft schedule the rest of the way out. That win in PHI was huge for them

[Lose Remerswaal]

And that loss to Carolina last night didn't help them

[The Napkin]

nice little graphic the Flames put out on the race in the west:

[AMcGhie]

Update as the completion of games on Thurs 3/22 (After the B's loss to the sharks).

The B's are 3 points up on OTT with 1 game in hand. OTT can get 100 points at max, so the B's need 13 and a tiebreaker (which they currently hold 34-32 in ROW) or 14 to clinch the division. Ottawa has a slightly easier schedule (4 playoff teams, 1 bubble in 8 remaining games for OTT vs 5 playoff teams, 1 bubble in 9 games for BOS)

The B's are 2 points up on FLA with 0 games in hand. FLA can get 103 points at max, so the B's need 15 and a tiebreaker (which they currently hold 34-31 in ROW) or 16 to clinch the division. Florida does have a significantly easier schedule though (see below)

Boston's schedule this year, however, ends with @NYR, PIT, @OTT, BUF. All of those teams will have something to play for.

The AC leader(NYR) currently have 99 points and PIT has 98. The maximum the B's can get currently is 105 points. 6 points from NYR or 7 from PIT guarantee the AC leader the #1 seed. PHI is 4/5 points back with 1 game less. It looks unlikely that they will challenge for the division lead. NJ is 5 points back of PHI, so it looks like PHI is a solid #5 seed, and NJ is a solid #6.

WAS is 1 point up on BUF with 8 games left for each. WPG has fallen 5 points behind, but has a game in hand. Washington has a game vs both other teams, but WPG and BUF have played all their games so far this year. 4 of BUF's games left are @WAS, @NYR, @PHI, and @BOS. That's going to be hard.


Remaining games:
BOS: @LA, @ANA, TAM, WAS, @NYI, @NYR, PIT, @OTT, BUF (oof!) 2 b2bs, but they're @LA/@ANA and @NYI/@NYR
OTT: @MON, PIT, @WPG, @PHI, @NYI, CAR, BOS, @NJD 2 b2bs, @MON/PIT, and @PHI/@NYI
FLA: EDM, NYI, @MON, @MIN, @COL, @DET, WPG, @WAS, CAR 1 b2b, @MIN/@COL
NYR: BUF, @TOR, @MIN, @WPG, MON, BOS, @PHI, @PIT, WAS 2 b2bs, BUF/@TOR and @MIN/@WPG
PIT: @OTT, NJ, NYI, @NYI, @BUF, PHI, @BOS, NYR, PHI 2 b2bs @OTT/NJ and @NYI/@BUF
WAS: WPG, MIN, BUF, @BOS, MON, @TAM, FLA, @NYR 1 b2b left, the second leg is tonight vs WPG(last night @PHI)
BUF: @NYR, MIN, @WAS, PIT, @TOR, TOR, @PHI, @BOS 2 b2bs left @NYR/MIN and PIT/@TOR
WPG: @WAS, @NSH, OTT, NYR, @CAR, @TAM, @FLA, @NYI, TAM 2 b2bs left @WAS/@NSH and @CAR/@TB


edit: is it WIN or WPG for the Jets?
edit 2: changed per mikeford. Thanks

Edited by AMcGhie, 23 March 2012 - 11:54 AM.

[mikeford]

WPG

[Curtis_Lesspanic]

My personal prediction - the 4 vs. 5 first round match up turns into a blood bath that ultimately takes out the winner as well.

[ForceAtHome]

My personal prediction - the 4 vs. 5 first round match up turns into a blood bath that ultimately takes out the winner as well.

Possibly, but you might have thought the same about 2008-2009 when the Penguins and Flyers faced off in a rough 4/5 match up. The Pens, of course, went on to win the Cup. This year's 4/5 is likely to be Pittsburgh/New York and Philly, so it could be similar.

[RedOctober3829]

Montreal helped the Bruins out last night by beating Ottawa. That still leaves Ottawa 3 points back now with 7 games to play(Bruins have 2 games in hand).

[AMcGhie]

Update as the completion of games on Sun 3/25 (After the B's swept the greater Los Angeles area).

The B's are 5 points up on OTT with 1 game in hand. OTT can get 98 points at max, so the B's need 7 and a tiebreaker (which they currently hold 36-33 in ROW) or 8 to clinch the division. OTT has 3/6 vs playoff teams left, as well as 1 vs Winnipeg. BOS has 5/7 vs Playoff teams.

The B's are 4 points up on FLA with 0 games in hand. FLA can get 101 points at max, so the B's need 10 and a tiebreaker (which they currently hold 36-31 in ROW) or 11 to clinch the 2nd seed. Florida does have a significantly easier schedule though (see below)

Boston's schedule this year, however, ends with @NYR, PIT, @OTT, BUF. All of those teams will have something to play for.

The AC leader(NYR) currently have 101 points and PIT has 100. The maximum the B's can get currently is 105 points. 5 points from NYR or 6 from PIT guarantee the AC leader the #1 seed. PHI is 4/5 points back. It looks unlikely that they will challenge for the division lead. NJ is 6 points back of PHI, so it looks like PHI is a solid #5 seed, and NJ is a solid #6.

WAS is tied with BUF with 6 games left for each. WAS has the ROW tiebreak 36-30. WPG has fallen 6 points behind, but has a game in hand. 4 of BUF's games left are @WAS, PIT, @PHI, and @BOS. That's going to be hard. Washington does have BUF, @BOS, FLA, @NYR.
Something I noticed: all 30 teams will be playing on April 7th, the last day of the season. Games to watch
3:00 BUF@BOS: Boston looking to shore up 2nd place. Buffalo potentially playing for 8th
3:00 OTT@NJD: Ottawa looking to steal division from BOston, Jersey hoping to not fall to 7th or below.
3:00 WAS@NYR Washington fighting for 8th. NYR fighting for 1st/4th maybe
4:00 PHI@PIT Maybe battle for 4th/5th. Maybe a battle for 1st/4th.
7:00 TOR@MON This game has no playoff implications. I'm just pointing that out.
10:30: LA@SJ Potential battle for 8th out West.

Remaining games:
BOS: TAM, WAS, @NYI, @NYR, PIT, @OTT, BUF (oof!)
OTT: @WPG, @PHI, @NYI, CAR, BOS, @NJD
FLA: @MON, @MIN, @COL, @DET, WPG, @WAS, CAR
NYR: @MIN, @WPG, MON, BOS, @PHI, @PIT, WAS
PIT: NYI, @NYI, @BUF, PHI, @BOS, NYR, PHI
WAS: BUF, @BOS, MON, @TAM, FLA, @NYR
BUF: @WAS, PIT, @TOR, TOR, @PHI, @BOS
WPG: OTT, NYR, @CAR, @TAM, @FLA, @NYI, TAM

Edit: fixed. Thanks Blacken.

Edited by AMcGhie, 26 March 2012 - 11:53 AM.

[Blacken]

Florida is in the Bruins' division, you say.

Please tell me more.

[teddykgb]

7:00 TOR@MON This game has to playoff implications. I'm just pointing that out.

Appreciate your doing this, it's helpful to have it all sorted out in one place. Just wanted to single out this quote as it got an awkward cubicle laugh out of me

[AMcGhie]

Wow, I make like a bajillion typos when I'm posting from an iPad. Just pointing that out.

[AMcGhie]

Bruins magic # over the Panthers is 9 to clinch the 2 seed.
Bruins magic # over the Senators is 6 to clinch the division
Bruins magic # over the Capitals is 3 to clinch a playoff spot.
Rangers magic # over the Bruins to clinch the #1 seed for the winner of the AC is 3.

Ottawa is 2 points up on Buffalo for 7th. Buffalo is 2 points up on Washington for 8th. All of those teams have 5 games left. Boston has games against all 3. (as well as vs PIT and @ NYR)
Ottawa has @PHI, @NYI, CAR, BOS, @NJD
Washington has @BOS, MON, @TAM, FLA, @NYR
Buffalo has PIT, @TOR, TOR, @PHI, @BOS
I think this definetely has not been decided yet, but with Buffalo surging, and Ottawa and Washington fading, I could conceivably see Buffalo 7, Ottawa 8, Washington 9.

Edited by AMcGhie, 28 March 2012 - 07:58 AM.

[Titoschew]

Bruins magic # over the Panthers is 9 to clinch the 2 seed.
Bruins magic # over the Senators is 6 to clinch the division
Bruins magic # over the Capitals is 3 to clinch a playoff spot.
Rangers magic # over the Bruins to clinch the #1 seed for the winner of the AC is 3.

Ottawa is 2 points up on Buffalo for 7th. Buffalo is 2 points up on Washington for 8th. All of those teams have 5 games left. Boston has games against all 3. (as well as vs PIT and @ NYR)
Ottawa has @PHI, @NYI, CAR, BOS, @NJD
Washington has @BOS, MON, @TAM, FLA, @NYR
Buffalo has PIT, @TOR, TOR, @PHI, @BOS
I think this definetely has not been decided yet, but with Buffalo surging, and Ottawa and Washington fading, I could conceivably see Buffalo 7, Ottawa 8, Washington 9.

That last game of the season with Ruffalo...be interesting to see how it is played if the Bruins have sewn up #2 and Buffalo is in play for 7 or 8.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

That last game of the season with Ruffalo...be interesting to see how it is played if the Bruins have sewn up #2 and Buffalo is in play for 7 or 8.

If that's the case then I'd expect Turco or Khudobin to be starting in goal for the B's.

[PedroSpecialK]

Would be amazing if Buffalo ends up getting a first, Hodgson, and Sulzer for Gaustad, Kassian, Gragnani and a fourth and still makes the playoffs.

Heck we will likely be rooting against the B's on the 7th. Except in Miller's crease.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 28 March 2012 - 08:13 AM.

[cshea]

I'd prefer Ottawa, but I'd be fine getting Buffalo. Teams that go on these late season runs to get in tend to get worn out in the process. The Sabres did this last year, then ultimately ran out of gas in the Philly series. It went 7 , but that was mostly due to Leighton/Boucher.

Speaking of the Flyers, they should probably call up Leighton for a bit and punt their remaining games. Shitty spot they are in.

[ajml]

Thank god for the new TV format so nobody in the country will have to watch NJ-Florida games

[j44thor]

One thing worth mentioning is that both NYR and Boston have huge advantages with Regulation Wins which is the first tiebreaker.
NYR likely won' t be caught by anyone in regulation wins (44, next closest is PHI with 40) and BOS (37W) is up 6 on FL and 3 on OTT.

[AMcGhie]

For all intensive purposes, NYR has the tiebreak over PIT (6 back with 6 left), BOS has it over FLA (6 back with 6 left). BOS also has it over NJD (6 back with 5 left).

BOS is 3 up on OTT, but is only 5 points up on them in the standings. if OTT catches up, the tiebreaker will be relevant.

WAS(36) has the tiebreaker over OTT(34), BUF(31).

Compared to the Western Conference, the Eastern Conference is pretty set seed-wise.
NYR and PIT will fight for the 1/4 seed. BOS and FLA will fight for 2/3. PHI will be 5th. NJD will be 6th OTT will probably be 7th. WAS and BUF will fight for 8th. The only major wrinkle is if OTT catches BOS , in which case BOS will probably drop to 6th (over NJD who is a point and a game behind).

The West has StL solidly in 1st (4 points with 5 to go), VAN in 2nd, and Pacific champion in 3rd. DET and NSH are solidly in the 4/5 slots. CHI is solidly in 6th. Currently, DAL(6 left) and PHO(5 left) are in 7/8th with 87, LAK(6 left) and COL(4left) are out of the playoffs and 1 back at 86. CAL (5 left) is 2 back at 85. SJ currently leads the Pacific at 88, DAL and PHO are 1 back, LA is 2 back. PHO is 1 game ahead.
CHi is in a good spot, they get the WC champion in the 1st round.

edit: abbreviations.

Edited by AMcGhie, 28 March 2012 - 01:18 PM.

[j44thor]

For all intensive purposes

[TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle]

The purposes are certainly not laid back. We're talkin' playoffs here!

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'd prefer Ottawa, but I'd be fine getting Buffalo. Teams that go on these late season runs to get in tend to get worn out in the process. The Sabres did this last year, then ultimately ran out of gas in the Philly series. It went 7 , but that was mostly due to Leighton/Boucher.

That's one possible reason

Another is that a team has gotten their act together, whether by injured players coming back, or a reshuffling of lines that makes the difference.

Another is a team has a guy that goes all Timmy Thomas on them (I mean like late last season, not like with the White House thing).

Me? I'll take the team that's dropped 3 playoff spots in the last month over a team that's climbed 3 spots, every day.

[sjaustin77]

Bruins magic # over the Panthers is 9 to clinch the 2 seed.
Bruins magic # over the Senators is 6 to clinch the division
Bruins magic # over the Capitals is 3 to clinch a playoff spot.
Rangers magic # over the Bruins to clinch the #1 seed for the winner of the AC is 3.

Ottawa is 2 points up on Buffalo for 7th. Buffalo is 2 points up on Washington for 8th. All of those teams have 5 games left. Boston has games against all 3. (as well as vs PIT and @ NYR)
Ottawa has @PHI, @NYI, CAR, BOS, @NJD
Washington has @BOS, MON, @TAM, FLA, @NYR
Buffalo has PIT, @TOR, TOR, @PHI, @BOS
I think this definetely has not been decided yet, but with Buffalo surging, and Ottawa and Washington fading, I could conceivably see Buffalo 7, Ottawa 8, Washington 9.

Just wondering how the Bruins magic number is anything more than 2? Washington can only get to 94 points.
Boston is at 93.
2 points or 2 missed points by Washington and they can't catch them regardless of any tiebreakers.
What am I missing?

[The Napkin]

It's actually 1, no? Even if the Caps win the rest of their games they still can't get to the Bruin win total (currently 45-38) which gives the B's the tie break right?
Not that it matters all that much I suppose.

[Alternate34]

I'd prefer Ottawa, but I'd be fine getting Buffalo. Teams that go on these late season runs to get in tend to get worn out in the process. The Sabres did this last year, then ultimately ran out of gas in the Philly series. It went 7 , but that was mostly due to Leighton/Boucher.

This may be true, but part of the Buffalo surge is attributable to them getting healthy. Their top 3 defensemen Regehr, Ehrhoff, and Myers have all missed significant time and that time overlapped. Their blue liners were pretty terrible for a while. As they got healthy Buffalo improved. The story people are running with is Miller, but to my inexperienced eyes, Miller has gotten a lot better play in front of him. I'd prefer Ottawa for this reason.

[kenneycb]

Erhoff is out indefinitely with a knee injury so it will be interesting to see how they respond the next few games.

[mikeford]

Thank god for the new TV format so nobody in the country will have to watch NJ-Florida games

Like they would have televised those anyway.

[AMcGhie]

It's actually 1, no? Even if the Caps win the rest of their games they still can't get to the Bruin win total (currently 45-38) which gives the B's the tie break right?
Not that it matters all that much I suppose.

Yeah, the stats page I was looking at hadn't been updated. I need to switch to ESPN or the NHL standings pages, those are usually updated immediately. Anything but a regulation win by the Caps clinches a playoff spot for the B's tonight.

[sjaustin77]

Contrary to popular belief by some in the gamethread last night the Bruins didn't clinch a playoff spot with the SO loss.

The Bruins have clinched a playoff spot tonight with Buffalo's regulation loss to Pittsburgh.

The magic number actually was 2 before the Washington game, knocked down to 1 (over Was) with the SO loss to Washington. Washington can get the same number of points and win the tiebreaker which is Regulation + overtime wins.

It was still 2 to Buffalo before tonight. Buffalo's loss means they can still match the Bruins in points but can't catch up in ROW.

Congrats to the Bruins for making it in. Defend the Cup!!

[One Red Seat]

I can't remember....how long of a break is there between the end of the regular season and the start of the 1st playoff series? I see nothing about the playoff game schedule on NHL.com. Is it just a day or two break or is it longer? Thanks

Edited by One Red Seat, 30 March 2012 - 10:34 PM.

[MiracleOfO2704]

I can't remember....how long of a break is there between the end of the regular season and the start of the 1st playoff series? I see nothing about the playoff game schedule on NHL.com. Is it just a day or two break or is it longer? Thanks

Next Saturday's the end of the regular season, and the playoffs start on the 11th, so everyone gets at least 4 days to reset.

[Salem's Lot]

I can't remember....how long of a break is there between the end of the regular season and the start of the 1st playoff series? I see nothing about the playoff game schedule on NHL.com. Is it just a day or two break or is it longer? Thanks

Game 1 should be 4/12 at the home assuming the Bruins win the division. The Celtics are using the building on 4/11. I'd expect game 2 on 4/14 at 7 if they play Ottawa. They would be the only Eastern Time Zone Canadian team in the playoffs and would be on HNIC. If we end up playing Buffalo it would probably be a matinee.

[mikeford]

The Devils need 1 point to clinch a spot and with a win + a Philthy win, are all but locked into the 6th seed.

[Yo La Tengo]

Up 6 with 4 games to go... am I right that the Bruins will clinch the second spot with a win or an Ottawa and Florida loss?

[AMcGhie]

Bruins have the ROW tiebreaker clinched vs both, so any combination of 2 points via Bruins wins or OTT/FLA not getting points means clinch of Division/#2 seed.

[Yo La Tengo]

Up 6 with 4 games to go... am I right that the Bruins will clinch the second spot with a win or an Ottawa and Florida loss?

I would have expected this to be bigger news today... I think I'd rather the Bs face Ottawa than Washington or Buffalo in the first round.