61 replies to this topic

[trekfan55]

I have seen that we have some 9er fans on this board so...

To start, a very interesting piece which explains that all 11 starters on the defense will return for 2012 and maybe 2013.

Then of course is the fact that they signed Randy Moss (and he'll play at Foxborough)

Also, as discussed in the Manning thread: the 9ers have entered the Manning sweepstakes.

Interesting quote from that article:

On Sunday night, Smith told KPIX that he was happy with the team’s three-year contract offer on the table. Why hadn’t it been signed? Smith indicated his agent was working out the details.
Manning and Smith are represented by the same agent, Tom Condon.

[dcmissle]

These agents are right up there with Goldman Sachs when it comes to client loyalty. Condon takes care of the whale first. It is a dirty, squalid business.

[dcdrew10]

These agents are right up there with Goldman Sachs when it comes to client loyalty. Condon takes care of the whale first. It is a dirty, squalid business.

The smaller the QB market, the better for Condon, via Smith's contract. He gets a big deal for Manning, hopes he can get SEA, MIA, or whoever doesn't get Flynn to pony up for a QB who was a dropped punt away from the Super Bowl (that's how he'll pitch at least).

[trekfan55]

This may just get interesting:

Alex Smith may be changing agents.

And from Kevin Lynch and retweeted by Eric Branch

Per @klynch49, #49ers contract offer to Alex Smith: 3 years, $24 million.

[Sille Skrub]

I was confused when I saw that stuff earlier today.

Does Alex think he can get more than 3/$24? Seems like a fair offer to me...

[dcmissle]

I was confused when I saw that stuff earlier today.

Does Alex think he can get more than 3/$24? Seems like a fair offer to me...

Probably not. But his just underscores Condon's conflict of interest.

If you're representing Alex, you advise him to sign this offer the day before yesterday. "Yeah Alex, the money might be a bit short, but you have a chance for another deal in your career, and this is the place for you in the interim. You will not be surrounded by a better roster anyplace else. You have a chance to win a SB and leverage that later."

Meanwhile, while you're supposed to be putting the finishing touches on the deal, Peyton Manning is on the phone. What's yout best advice to him? "Peyton, this is the place for you. You will not be surrounded by a better support cast anyplace else. This would maximize your opportunity for another ring."

It's an untenable conflict of interest. And one that cannot be remedied by steering Alex or Peyton to one of your partners, if Condon has partners. Because each player is reasonably entitled to the undivided loyalty of Condon's firm.

[soxfan121]

Reports out of SF were that Smith was happy with the 3/$24M deal on Sunday (LAST Sunday) and that "details were being worked out". The details turned out to be Peyton Manning.

I wonder if Smith files a complaint with the NFLPA as well as switching agents. It kinda looks like Smith had his own agent working against him.

[dcmissle]

Hypothetically:

Flynn > Seahawks

Smith > Dolphins

Manning > Broncos

Then what in SF?

[RedOctober3829]

Hypothetically:

Flynn > Seahawks

Smith > Dolphins

Manning > Broncos

Then what in SF?

Your starter would most likely be Colin Kapernick or drafting Brandon Weeden.

Edit: or they could go after Brian Hoyer.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 18 March 2012 - 09:24 AM.

[maufman]

The part that puzzles me is Smith being content with 3/24. That seems awfully low, considering how much middling QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez are getting paid. If he wants to accept less to stay in San Francisco, that's fine, but it's his agent's job to quantify what he'd be leaving on the table so he can make an informed choice -- and doing so would probably force the Niners to sweeten their initial offer.

If Smith had independent representation, he'd be telling the Niners that their handshake deal on 3/24 was void. Which, frankly, should be self-evident -- if the Niners can shop around, so can Smith. And to be fair, Condon may have conveyed this message privately to the Niners' FO.

(null)

[dcmissle]

Your starter would most likely be Colin Kapernick or drafting Brandon Weeden.

Edit: or they could go after Brian Hoyer.

Not surprised. Then it seems to me the 49ers are playing with fire unless they are reasonably very confident about signing Peyton.

[Al Zarilla]

The part that puzzles me is Smith being content with 3/24. That seems awfully low, considering how much middling QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez are getting paid. If he wants to accept less to stay in San Francisco, that's fine, but it's his agent's job to quantify what he'd be leaving on the table so he can make an informed choice -- and doing so would probably force the Niners to sweeten their initial offer.

If Smith had independent representation, he'd be telling the Niners that their handshake deal on 3/24 was void. Which, frankly, should be self-evident -- if the Niners can shop around, so can Smith. And to be fair, Condon may have conveyed this message privately to the Niners' FO.

(null)

Before last season, Smith would have been lucky to get 3/2.4. Nobody would have wanted him except as a backup. 3 @8M per sounds fair to me.

[maufman]

I think Smith will be back in San Francisco if Manning signs elsewhere, but if Smith truly was ready to re-up for 3/24 last week, this dalliance with Manning will cost the Niners dearly if it isn't consummated.

Also, I have to think Flynn would be intrigued by the SF situation -- in what universe does he go to Miami or Seattle for the same money? The Dolphins or Seahawks are going to have to back up the Brinks truck if SF gets in on that. There's also the possibility other QB options (Tebow, Cassel) will become available as other dominoes fall. The Niners may end up worse off, but they won't be forced to replace Smith with an internal option.

And speaking of Matt Cassel, I think folks here are forgetting how radically a single season alters expectations (and market values).

Edited by maufman, 18 March 2012 - 09:37 AM.

[soxfan121]

San Francisco has the most to lose and the most to gain. If Manning signs elsewhere, Flynn signs elsewhere and Smith walks they are left with nothing other than Kaepernick or maybe Hoyer (although that is problematic for a number of reasons).

Denver still has Tebow to fall back on, although your opinion on the viability of that may vary. Tennessee has both Hasselbeck (who'd be cut if Manning signs) and Locker (who becomes the best QB on the trade market but probably too costly for SF (picks) or Denver (PR)). Seattle, Miami & presumably Cleveland would be interested, with just Tannehill as a draft option.

San Fran getting involved on Manning was the smart thing to do; they are Manning (and a kick returner) from the Super Bowl. Keeping their interest secret for a few days was also wicked smart. That it eventually got out is unfortunate, but since they "stayed in" after the workout, they made their choice. Had the workout been bad, they could have politely declined, signed Smith and leaked their interest later. But since it was good and they pushed forward, they are committed - and they really, really need to get it done. Everyone else has a fallback - SF might be operating without a net if Smith is pissed at the 49ers or his agent and signs in Miami, etc.

[Sille Skrub]

Can AS truly be pissed if the Niners happen to have interest in P.F. Manning?

Maybe they were all down to run with 3/$24 and then suddenly (unhappy with other options) Tom Condon calls SF and says Manning is softening on his desire to stay in the AFC.

THAT would piss me off if I was Alex Smith.

[JCizzle]

Your starter would most likely be Colin Kapernick or drafting Brandon Weeden.

Edit: or they could go after Brian Hoyer.

They'd likely sign Josh Johnson, who Harbaugh coached during his San Deigo days and still raves about as recently as last season. It would likely be JJ/Kaepernick fighting for the starting role with Tolzien coming back as the #3 QB.

And honestly, I don't think the Niners are desparetly worried about losing Alex. They traded up to pick Kapernick, and Harbaugh would have a full season and a full off-season to work with him by the time opening day 2012 rolls around.

[sodenj5]

Can AS truly be pissed if the Niners happen to have interest in P.F. Manning?

Maybe they were all down to run with 3/$24 and then suddenly (unhappy with other options) Tom Condon calls SF and says Manning is softening on his desire to stay in the AFC.

THAT would piss me off if I was Alex Smith.

According to what I've read, Smith was willing to accept their offer of 3/24, and "details were being finalized." Then Condon basically backdoored him with Manning, which is why he's now in Miami and looking to switch agents. I too would be very pissed if I were Smith. It appears he was basically railroaded by his agent.

[JCizzle]

Can AS truly be pissed if the Niners happen to have interest in P.F. Manning?

Maybe they were all down to run with 3/$24 and then suddenly (unhappy with other options) Tom Condon calls SF and says Manning is softening on his desire to stay in the AFC.

THAT would piss me off if I was Alex Smith.

This is just me reading the twitter tea leaves, but if I had to guess Peyton was probably the one who showed the initial interest in the 49ers and not vice versa. I'm sure the Niners put in a cursory call, but didn't plan to send Harbaugh and Roman out to Duke until Peyton reached back out to them.

Jim Trotter seems to have some of the best (and only) connections with the 49ers organization, and he was the one who was basically a week out in front of the rest of the media by reporting on a serious sleeper team, which he later confirmed to be the 49ers when Mort broke the story. He also reported:

The owner of one 2011 playoff team told SI that while his club was not pursuing Manning, it would seriously consider signing him (pending a positive medical report) if he phoned and said he wanted to play for them.

http://sportsillustr...982/2/index.htm

Edited by JCizzle, 18 March 2012 - 10:03 AM.

[dcmissle]

Hypothetically:

Flynn > Seahawks

Smith > Dolphins

Manning > Broncos

Then what in SF?

According to Laddie in the News thread, the first shoe has dropped:

Schefter has Matt Flynn going to Seattle for 3 years up to 26M w/ 10 guaranteed.

[E5 Yaz]

Eh, Smith and Condon are too smart to pick the Dolphins over the 49ers

[trekfan55]

Eh, Smith and Condon are too smart to pick the Dolphins over the 49ers

True, but the 49ers have to move fast (or Peyton Manning has to decide fast). If the Dolphins make an offer that's better than 3/24 for Alex Smith what happens? Luckily the Dolphins are still in on Manning, but this is getting really interesting.

The 49ers have upgraded the WR spot (their major weakness last year), are returning their entire defense, have 2011's best kicker, and have not drafted yet, so here's hoping they get it done at QB.

[E5 Yaz]

True, but the 49ers have to move fast (or Peyton Manning has to decide fast). If the Dolphins make an offer that's better than 3/24 for Alex Smith what happens? Luckily the Dolphins are still in on Manning, but this is getting really interesting.

Smith can wait until Manning decides. Where's the Dolphins' money going to go, now that Flynn is off the market?

[trekfan55]

Smith can wait until Manning decides. Where's the Dolphins' money going to go, now that Flynn is off the market?

And the Dolphins are also waiting on Manning which was kind of my point. Otherwise Alex Smith and his (new?) agent can push the Dolphins to make a better offer now.

[dcmissle]

I thought Peyton told Miami a couple of days ago that the answer is "no".

[E5 Yaz]

I thought Peyton told Miami a couple of days ago that the answer is "no".

He did. I thought TrekFan meant that Miami was waiting on Manning interms of who becomes available (Hasselbeck?) after Peyton decides

[Sportsbstn]

I thought Peyton told Miami a couple of days ago that the answer is "no".

Me as well. From every report Miami is out and has been for a bit. They were not a serious consideration.

[JCizzle]

Looks like Alex very well may go to Miami, reports have them negotiating... for pretty much the same deal he sat on from the Niners. I don't think he'll look back on this as a good decision unless Philbin is a guru - that offense projects to be horrible. I'm not sure why he's acting hurt over the Niners pursuit of Peyton when the team never would have been in a position to do so if he had just signed the original offer.

Report: Dolphins negotiating a contract worth $8 million a year with Alex Smith ... http://t.co/091IVBxx

https://twitter.com/...527540630953984

The Niners were offering 3/24 and the offer likely still stands if Peyton goes with the Titans like I suspect he will.

Edited by JCizzle, 18 March 2012 - 07:09 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

Under your scenario, the Niners would grab Hasselbeck, once the Titans release him

Things only get interesting if Manning signs with Denver ... since the displaced QB would be Tebow

[Jnai]

Did no one else see Alex Smith play QB the last few seasons? Unless that team were the 49ers who might feel that Smith already knows their system and can run the offense efficiently, how could a team possibly pass on Peyton Manning to sign Alex Smith?

[Super Nomario]

Is Alex Smith an obvious upgrade on Matt Moore?

All stats last year (career)
Comp % - Smith 61.3 (58.0), Moore 60.5 (59.1)
TD % - Smith 3.8 (3.5), Moore 4.6 (4.3)
INT % - Smith 1.1 (3.0), Moore 2.6 (3.5)
Y/A - Smith 7.1 (6.4), Moore 7.2 (7.0)
Sack % - Smith 9.0 (8.1), Moore 9.4 (8.0)

They're basically the same age. Smith threw crazy few INTs last year, but he doesn't have a career record of doing so and folks who've studied this have shown it to be heavily influenced by luck. All things being equal, I'd rather have Smith, but at their price points Miami would be paying him a little of money for a very slight upgrade.

[24JoshuaPoint]

As i Niners fan i was hoping the Manning sweepstakes would be outside of their scope. But now i would go there yet; not. And now there is a report AS would be a backup for PM? Wtf. Get on with it. F*ck!

(null)

[Sille Skrub]

Alex Smith willing to be SF's backup plan to #18?

Huh? He must really love California.

[kanga12]

...or he wants to be on a winning team with an elite defense where he has a good relationship with a coach that has gotten the most out of him -- and was within a couple of plays of making the Super Bowl...

...and the possibility of throwing to newly acquired Moss and Manningham...

...and not wanting to play under yet another different coach and system...

...though a bit unusual, I can understand the rational.

[nattysez]

Alex Smith willing to be SF's backup plan to #18?

Huh? He must really love California.

He was at times backing up David Carr and Troy Smith in 2010 and Shawn Hill in 2009. This would be quite an upgrade.

[E5 Yaz]

Not to mention that there's no guarantee Manning can stay healhty

[Mugsys Jock]

Alex Smith willing to be SF's backup plan to #18?

Huh? He must really love California.

....or he just wants the Fish to think he has another option, so they can't lowball him

[DrewDawg]

Niners better hope they sign him, because the cupboard is looking bare.

Niners may be running out Nick Punto at QB if they can't bring Smith back or get Hasselback.

[dcdrew10]

Niners better hope they sign him, because the cupboard is looking bare.

Niners may be running out Nick Punto at QB if they can't bring Smith back or get Hasselback.

Let's hope the Phins sign Smith and the Niners feel compelled to sign Hoyer, because it wouldn't be a draft w/o 3 2nd round picks.

[EvilEmpire]

I think it may cost the 49ers a little more than 3/24 now.

[JCizzle]

It would be foolish to offer much more than 3/24. I think they have a value in mind for him and aren't willing to stray too far from that. If the Dolphins are willing to break the bank for him, then it is what it is, but I think the more likely scenario is Alex coming back for approximately Flynn money. Alex probably needs the stability of coming back to the same system as much as the Niners need the stability of Alex.

Edited by JCizzle, 19 March 2012 - 12:16 PM.

[dcmissle]

Hypothetically:

Flynn > Seahawks

Smith > Dolphins

Manning > Broncos

Then what in SF?

Now make this 2 out of 3 since yesterday morning.

Condon > Harbaugh: "Sweeten the deal. Or ride Kamperdick. Your choice."

[trekfan55]

Now make this 2 out of 3 since yesterday morning.

Condon > Harbaugh: "Sweeten the deal. Or ride Kamperdick. Your choice."

This is assuming he gets a better offer from the Dolphins. Where is he going to get his "mystery team" (I know that's Boras but he can try and use it as well) at this point?

[dcmissle]

This is assuming he gets a better offer from the Dolphins. Where is he going to get his "mystery team" (I know that's Boras but he can try and use it as well) at this point?

True. Evidently,

Both SI.com’s Peter King and Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald are reporting that free agent quarterback Alex Smith has been in contract negotiations with the Dolphins on Monday.

King heard that Smith is “very serious” about the possibility of playing for the Dolphins. Per Salguero, Smith has told folks he’d strongly consider joining the Fins “under the right circumstances.”

I have nothing against the 49ers. I've tended to always like them and think Harbaugh did an incredible job last season.

However, Harbaugh is more than a little full of himself, and it would be an electric moment if Smith bolted for the Fins. "Harbaughface" would enter the lexicon.

[trekfan55]

He has 3/24 from the Niners. He is negotiating with the Dolphins. He did not exactly light the world on fire during the Niners' incredible 2011 season. Exactly how much doe he Dolphins offer?

IF the Dolphins offer that much more maybe Smith either signs or Condom has Harbaugh and Baalke by the balls. But if The Dolphins come back with the same (or very similar) offer what happens?

BTW Alex Smith has been benched in favor of Shaun Hill, David Carr, etc. and the Niners still want him back, that should count for something.

Edited by trekfan55, 19 March 2012 - 03:46 PM.

[dcmissle]

He has 3/24 from the Niners. He is negotiating with the Dolphins. He did not exactly light the world on fire during the Niners' incredible 2011 season. Exactly how much doe he Dolphins offer?

IF the Dolphins offer that much more maybe Smith either signs or Condom has Harbaugh and Baalke by the balls. But if The Dolphins come back with the same (or very similar) offer what happens?

BTW Alex Smith has been benched in favor of Shaun Hill, David Carr, etc. and the Niners still want him back, that should count for something.

I don't disagree. Reason tells me that everything else being roughly equal, Alex goes back to the 49ers. But all decisions are not made with a cool head, and perhaps Smith has lost trust and believes a target will always be on his back. If that's the case, I can see him signing with the Phins, or demanding a Sanchize-like sweetener.

[trekfan55]

I don't disagree. Reason tells me that everything else being roughly equal, Alex goes back to the 49ers. But all decisions are not made with a cool head, and perhaps Smith has lost trust and believes a target will always be on his back. If that's the case, I can see him signing with the Phins, or demanding a Sanchize-like sweetener.

I agree. But I go back to the point where he has been benched for such superstar talents as Shaun Hill and David Carr. Is he really going to cave when the Niners saw an opportunity to sign one of the greatest QBs of all time?

[Sille Skrub]

I really hope he goes to Miami for more than 3/$24. It would be an overpay for the Dolphins for a QB who has had one semi-good year.

Teach 'em a lesson, Alex.

Get paid!

[Al Zarilla]

I really hope he goes to Miami for more than 3/$24. It would be an overpay for the Dolphins for a QB who has had one semi-good year.

Teach 'em a lesson, Alex.

Get paid!

Who would you have playing QB for the Niners, Kaepernick?

[Sille Skrub]

It really doesn't matter to me. I follow the Niners because they are local and I have a lot of friends who are fans.

I'd just rather see the Dolphins stuck with AS on a bad contract.

[Al Zarilla]

It really doesn't matter to me. I follow the Niners because they are local and I have a lot of friends who are fans.

I'd just rather see the Dolphins stuck with AS on a bad contract.

Oh, I thought you were getting attached somewhat. I was here for the Montana-Walsh years and on and can be a pretty solid fan, albeit a fair weather one with the 49ers. Patriots, thick and thin.