176 replies to this topic

[Clears Cleaver]

The biggest weakness on this team is starting pitching. Specifically, none of the starters are innings eaters. Lester and [I am an Idiot] are six inning pitchers and Beckett is a 7 inning guy. Add in two five inning guys in Aceves/Bard/Doubrant will destroy a bullpen. The Sox have to find a guy who can go 7 innings consistently even at a league average or worse ERA. The existing rotation requires a 12-man staff and means more late game ABs for platoon players.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

More like "great!" One changeup in 83 pitches? From a short reliever trying to become a starter? With the season two starts away? That's just not going to work.

Bard explains the one changeup:

Wednesday morning, Bard explained why he took the approach he did when it came to the pitch.
“I have a changeup I’m comfortable with. It’s not even an issue. It’s not like I’m developing a new pitch,” he said
“There’s always room for improvement. But I’m comfortable with what I’ve got. I’ve sat down and talked with [pitching coach Bob McClure] about it. I had thrown 12-13 the outing before, but at some point I have to start getting some outs and stop experimenting because that would have been 20-25 percent changeups. I’m not going to throw that many in the game, it’s just not how it’s going to be. I’m going to be about 10 percent changeups. I want that surprise factor, where if it’s one of 10 pitches it makes it that much more effective. It could become a higher-use pitch, but I know it’s there.
“I wish I threw more too, but I’m out there to get outs and trying to establish things. That’s in my entire repertoire. If I’m not throwing my fastball or my slider in big spots, even in spring training, how am I going to go into the season with confidence in those pitches. That’s the way I see it.”

[Pumpsie]

Bard explains the one changeup:

Fine. Then in his last two starts he'd better start pitching like he's going to be pitching come the start of the season. Let's see the change-ups as he would use them in a real game.

[SoxScout]

@bradfoTeam source confirms that Bard will make his next scheduled start (Sun), and no decision has been made regarding his role

While the Red Sox remain in the evaluation phase and have not made any decisions on the fourth and fifth starter spots, it’s pretty clear that manager Bobby Valentine was hoping to see more out of Bard, who started the spring strong, but has walked seven and allowed 10 hits in his last 7.2 innings.

It seems a bit rash to base any decisions on Bard on seven innings, particularly after he worked all offseason to stretch himself out as a starter. There have been extenuating circumstances, too — rain interrupted his outing against St. Louis last week, and control issues cropped up when he returned. Last night against the Blue Jays, he basically limited the damage to one poor inning.

So is Bard in or out? Team sources insist no decisions have been made, but it’s certainly something to watch moving forward.

http://www.bostonher...fourth-starter/

Edited by SoxScout, 21 March 2012 - 05:02 PM.

[Rough Carrigan]

I'm sick to death of this team year after year making roster moves that are the equivalent of "Well, we can't use that player with 80 points of value because it would force us to give up this guy with 50 points of value. What do you want us to do, just give away that guy?!". I understand the value of it in the long run, holding onto talent when possible. But every year it seems like they piss away games only to eventually go back to using the guys everyone thought were the best guys anyway.

[lexrageorge]

I don't understand all the hate, or why some even think this is Valentine's fault.

Bard was never offered a guaranteed spot in the rotation; all he was offered was a spring training audition. While it's easy to say it's only a couple of spring starts, there are clearly other criteria than just the number of runs and hits given up; I'm sure the walks have something to do with Valentine's reluctance to just put him in the rotation. Or perhaps McClure and Valentine see something in his delivery. It's easy for us to say that Bard has "earned" a spot in the rotation, but if Aceves, Duobront, Padilla are better candidates to start than Bard, then Bard shouldn't be starting. I really don't believe it's any more complicated than that, and it certainly has no bearing on how Nick Punto is utilized.

Bard being a setup man is hardly the end of the world; he excelled at that last year. Or maybe he and Bailey swap roles and Bard becomes the closer. If Bard's psychological makeup is such that he can't handle that, then he's unlikely to be a very good MLB pitcher for this ballclub. April in Fenway is not spring training, nor is it the minor leagues either.

[lexrageorge]

The biggest weakness on this team is starting pitching. Specifically, none of the starters are innings eaters. Lester and [I am an Idiot] are six inning pitchers and Beckett is a 7 inning guy. Add in two five inning guys in Aceves/Bard/Doubrant will destroy a bullpen. The Sox have to find a guy who can go 7 innings consistently even at a league average or worse ERA. The existing rotation requires a 12-man staff and means more late game ABs for platoon players.

In 2007 team had Beckett (6.7 IP/start in the regular season), Schilling (6.3) Lester (5.7), and Dice-K (6.4) as their playoff rotation. Seemed to work out all right.

[Plympton91]

For those who've forgotten, these are Dan Bard's statistics as a reliever last September:

0 Wins, 4 Losses, 10.64 ERA, 20 baserunners, 11/9 K/BB ratio in 11 innings.

If Dan Bard's performance in the second inning last night, or in the third inning of his previous spring training game makes you concerned about how well he'd pitch as a starter this April, then you should also be almost equally concerned about how well Dan Bard will pitch in relief this April. Because, until he retired 8 in a row to close out last nights game, he looked exactly like the pitcher who was throwing gasoline on the inferno at the end of last year.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The biggest weakness on this team is starting pitching. Specifically, none of the starters are innings eaters.

Lester has averaged over 200 innings a year during his four full seasons in the majors. Sure, there are a few guys who have done better than that, but to deny him the title of innings-eater you have to set the bar awfully high.

[OnWisc]

I don't understand all the hate, or why some even think this is Valentine's fault.

Bard was never offered a guaranteed spot in the rotation; all he was offered was a spring training audition. While it's easy to say it's only a couple of spring starts, there are clearly other criteria than just the number of runs and hits given up; I'm sure the walks have something to do with Valentine's reluctance to just put him in the rotation. Or perhaps McClure and Valentine see something in his delivery. It's easy for us to say that Bard has "earned" a spot in the rotation, but if Aceves, Duobront, Padilla are better candidates to start than Bard, then Bard shouldn't be starting. I really don't believe it's any more complicated than that, and it certainly has no bearing on how Nick Punto is utilized.

Bard being a setup man is hardly the end of the world; he excelled at that last year. Or maybe he and Bailey swap roles and Bard becomes the closer. If Bard's psychological makeup is such that he can't handle that, then he's unlikely to be a very good MLB pitcher for this ballclub. April in Fenway is not spring training, nor is it the minor leagues either.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but have they shown they're better candidates? I think Bard easily has the highest upside as a starter of everyone in consideration. Despite that, if one of these other options had shown through past performance and spring training that they were clearly a better candidate, you might see a sifferent reaction. But to take a shot away from Bard based on a handful of spring training starts that could collectively be described as mediocre, and hand it to someone else whose performance would warrant the same description, doesn't seem like an obvious move at this point.

EDIT: I don't see Bard moving to closer with Bailey setting up. If Bailey isn't closing, it'll be because he's on the DL.

Edited by OnWisc, 21 March 2012 - 07:57 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

Bobby couldn't even wait for the regular season to throw somebody under the bus to the media. Can't say I'm shocked. It's not even like Bard is some old vet lollygagging through ST. He's still a young guy getting his shot to play a payday position. That Bobby thinks it's good motivation to kick him publicly is almost worse than the knee-jerk reaction it would be if indeed Bard didn't get 5-10 regular-season starts at the bare minimum.

[maufman]

Why assume that Doubront or Padilla gets the fifth slot? Padilla is injured and will probably head for the bullpen when he is recovered.

Iirc, Padilla is slated to earn more than a million bucks, and the Sox will owe luxury tax on that. If Padilla isn't going to be ready on Opening Day, and if he doesn't figure to be part of the rotation at all, I think he'll be released (assuming that's an option).

[Pumpsie]

I don't understand the hate either. All Valentine is saying here is "we haven't decided yet." That's not "throwing anyone under the bus." That's stating a simple fact.

[Doctor G]

Valentineis not specificaly throwing anyone under the bus. His statement merely emphasizes the iimportance he places on starters not walking people. It isn't bad judgement to tell the media what the criteria are for the decision as to who fills the 4/5 spots in the rotation, i don't think he is doing anything but being honest with a group of media members who he will be working with all summer.
Remember how Girardi's first season went with the media when he repeatedly was caught being less than truthful. Girardi realized in the end that this was counter-productive for him and the Yankees.

Edited by Doctor G, 21 March 2012 - 09:57 PM.

[Plympton91]

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but have they shown they're better candidates? I think Bard easily has the highest upside as a starter of everyone in consideration. Despite that, if one of these other options had shown through past performance and spring training that they were clearly a better candidate, you might see a sifferent reaction. But to take a shot away from Bard based on a handful of spring training starts that could collectively be described as mediocre, and hand it to someone else whose performance would warrant the same description, doesn't seem like an obvious move at this point.

EDIT: I don't see Bard moving to closer with Bailey setting up. If Bailey isn't closing, it'll be because he's on the DL.

Yup on both counts.

If Dan Bard isn't the 4th starter then all the optimism I had this winter was wholly misplaced. This team is sunk at the outset without him being the equivalent of Michael Pineda or Jeremy Hellickson.

Second, a bullpen that includes both Bailey and Bard is a witch's brew made for Dan Shaughnessy to stir. Nobody will be happy or productive in a season-long closer controversy

Edited by Plympton91, 21 March 2012 - 10:02 PM.

[rembrat]

I don't understand the hate either. All Valentine is saying here is "we haven't decided yet." That's not "throwing anyone under the bus." That's stating a simple fact.

The fact that he and everyone else involved are heavily weighting ST stats is what irks me. I thought this was a smart and progressive organization? What the hell happened? And, for the 100th time, if Bard isnt going to get a real shot no matter what, why trade two young position players for relievers? Why not go after someone who could start instead? Not to mention if they do pull the plug now they would have dicked Bard around big time. Remember he wanted to start or close.

I'm still holding out that Valentine is trying to motivate Bard somehow but with each passing comment that looks more and more unlikely. I miss Tito.

[JakeRae]

Yup on both counts.

If Dan Bard isn't the 4th starter then all the optimism I had this winter was wholly misplaced. This team is sunk at the outset without him being the equivalent of Michael Pineda or Jeremy Hellickson.

Second, a bullpen that includes both Bailey and Bard is a witch's brew made for Dan Shaughnessy to stir. Nobody will be happy or productive in a season-long closer controversy

Your hopes for this season are pinned to Bard being as good as Pineda or Hellickson? Really?

[Rasputin]

If Dan Bard isn't the 4th starter then all the optimism I had this winter was wholly misplaced. This team is sunk at the outset without him being the equivalent of Michael Pineda or Jeremy Hellickson.

This is just silly. The notion that one position can destroy a season like that is just silly on the face of it. The Sox need to get better performance from the back end of the rotation and it doesn't make a damn bit of difference who that comes from. I happen to think that the best chance for awesome from the #4 spot is Bard but if it turns out that it doesn't work then whatever option does work is going to be good whether it is Aceves, Doubront, Vicente Padilla or some schlub we haven't even thought of yet.

And remember, the single biggest improvement over last year is having a marginally competent fifth starter.

Second, a bullpen that includes both Bailey and Bard is a witch's brew made for Dan Shaughnessy to stir. Nobody will be happy or productive in a season-long closer controversy

A bullpen that included both Bailey and Bard would almost certainly be outstanding.

A person that gives a good goddamn what Dan Shaughnessy says is almost certainly not. The time for worrying about media created controversies is never.

They play 162 games. The likelihood that the Sox are going to be in the running come September is extremely high. The likelihood that none of the three teams we care the most about are going to have significant injuries is almost zero.

The season...it's gonna be fun.

Holy crap, five of the Sox last eleven games are against Baltimore and the other six are against Tampa.

[Adrian's Dome]

The fact that he and everyone else involved are heavily weighting ST stats is what irks me. I thought this was a smart and progressive organization? What the hell happened? And, for the 100th time, if Bard isnt going to get a real shot no matter what, why trade two young position players for relievers? Why not go after someone who could start instead? Not to mention if they do pull the plug now they would have dicked Bard around big time. Remember he wanted to start or close.

I'm still holding out that Valentine is trying to motivate Bard somehow but with each passing comment that looks more and more unlikely. I miss Tito.

This is retarded. How do you know Bobby V and the rest of the staff are evaluating things based off ST stats? What if they're looking at Bard's mechanics, his consistency, his makeup, his pitches, or whatever the hell else? You have absolutely no idea what factors they're basing their decisions on.

Maybe they trade the position players for the relievers because they knew Papelbon was surely gone and they didn't want to have to rely on Bobby Jenks for quality production? How many guys out there who could start and be productive, especially in a division like the AL East, were there? We already went through the Roy Oswalt fiasco, landing a good option for the starting rotation isn't exactly as easy as saying "hey, uh, we're the Red Sox, we need a starter, and you're a good starter, so, uh...come here, cool?"

Like I said earlier, if Bard can't mentally handle the team telling him that they want him in the bullpen, well, that's on him, not the team. Who cares if he wanted to start or close? In no way, shape, or form should an individual player's wishes be put ahead of the whole squad. I mean, shit, I want to start for the Boston Red Sox too, but no matter how much I pout, it isn't exactly in the cards.

And how exactly would Tito have handled the situation better? Perhaps he might've been quieter about the whole thing, but let's assume for a second he used similar metrics and scouting techniques to come to the conclusion that Bard wouldn't be a suitable starter...what exactly would be different about the situation? It comes down to Bard looking stable and producing favorable results on the mound, and so far, that hasn't happened.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The thing is there is a whole lot more to being a starting pitcher than throwing balls and strikes. Bard is learning on the job right now. It has been a good 3 years since Bard was a starter and that wasn't against MLB competition. The idea that he's just going to come into ST and be dominant is crap. He needs time.... Not just time to adjust to the role and innings , but time to adopt strategy going through the order multiple times, time to come up with a plan with his catchers and time to get a better feel for his secondary pitches. The idea that this all was going to happen overnight is just stupid.

I have actually been encouraged by his results. He had the rain delay issue, but so far he appears to be more like the Bard we saw in the pen than the Bard we saw in (A)ball. I believe if given some patience and decent coaching he'll develope into one hell of a good starting pitcher. This is not the time or place to give up on this project just yet.

I don't mind Bobby V's comments, I think all he is saying is that the rotation continues to be a work in progress.

[rembrat]

This is retarded. How do you know Bobby V and the rest of the staff are evaluating things based off ST stats? What if they're looking at Bard's mechanics, his consistency, his makeup, his pitches, or whatever the hell else? You have absolutely no idea what factors they're basing their decisions on.

Give me a break. We aren't here discussing this if not for the 10 walks.

Not a peep was heard after Bard's first two outings.

[Plympton91]

Give me a break. We aren't here discussing this if not for the 10 walks.

Which, again, perfectly mirrors his statistics in relief last September. If you're worried about Bard, you should be worried about whether the mechanics he lost last September are still missing, not whether he's capable of being a starting pitcher.

Everything about his outing on Tuesday night was positive from a starting standpoint. He gained command and velocity as the game went on, pitching much better in the 4th and 5th inning than in the second and third. He topped out at 94 mph in the first 3 innings, and then hit 97 mph multiple times in the 5th.

The Red Sox only chance this year of competing with the Yankees for the Division title is for Daniel Bard to be an ace level starting pitcher. Rasputin keeps focusing on the Red Sox upgrades without considering the upgrades everyone else made. If Bard is the 4th starter replacing the amalgam of Matsuzaka/Wakefield in the 4th spot, then that's an upgrade the Yankees can't match. Bard's better than Freddy Garcia. If that group competing for the 5th spot has to be broken into a group competing for the 4th spot and another one for the 5th spot, then the likelihood of the lesser group improving on Wakefield/Matsuzaka is almost nil.

The other upgrades to Boston's rotation were matched by Yankee upgrades. While the Red Sox are replacing Buchholz/Miller/Weiland in the 3rd spot with hopefully a full season of Buchholz, the Yankees are replacing AJ Burnett with Kuroda. While the Red Sox are replacing John Lackey with some combination of pitchers that can reasonably be expected to put up an ERA between 4.25 and 5.00, the Yankees are replacing Bartolo Colon/Phil Hughes with Michael Pineda.

The improvements made by the Tigers, Angels, and Rangers are self explanatory.

[lexrageorge]

...

The Red Sox only chance this year of competing with the Yankees for the Division title is for Daniel Bard to be an ace level starting pitcher. Rasputin keeps focusing on the Red Sox upgrades without considering the upgrades everyone else made. If Bard is the 4th starter replacing the amalgam of Matsuzaka/Wakefield in the 4th spot, then that's an upgrade the Yankees can't match. Bard's better than Freddy Garcia. If that group competing for the 5th spot has to be broken into a group competing for the 4th spot and another one for the 5th spot, then the likelihood of the lesser group improving on Wakefield/Matsuzaka is almost nil.

...

The flaw in this thinking is that Bard is the only chance for the Sox to have a decent 4th starter. If Aceves can be a good 4th starter, perhaps even better than Bard, why doesn't that work for them?

As noted, the assessment of Bard's rotation spot is going to be based on a number of factors. The question for this team is not whether Bard can eventually be a good 4th starter after a couple of seasons of struggling. It's whether Bard can be better than Aceves, Doubront, Padilla, et al. That answer is likely "yes", but Valentine doesn't have to answer that question today. Even if he has answered that question in his own mind, there's no advantage of letting us, or Bard, know that answer today.

Also, the Sox added arms to the bullpen because they knew they were going to lose Papelbon, they made a very reasonable assumption that at least one of Aceves/Bard was likely going to start, and that Jenks was likely going to miss a lot of itme. There's a very good chance those bullpen arms are going to be a lot more valuable to the team than a head-case utility SS who can't stay healthy and a RF'er who has no concept of plate discipline.

BTW, I'm not sure Tito would be handing the 4th starter job to Bard as of today either.

[HillysLastWalk]

Give me a break. We aren't here discussing this if not for the 10 walks.

Not a peep was heard after Bard's first two outings.

Honest questions:

Would that be because he didn't have the walk issues the first two outings? So the media (or whoever else asks the questions) wasn't taking that line of thinking or asking those types of questions?

I do know this: It's wholly unfair and biased to say that Bobby and the Red Sox are heavily weighing ST stats, as if this were fact.

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 22 March 2012 - 09:14 AM.

[aron7awol]

I didn't see Bard's last start, but looking at the play-by-play, it's actually encouraging to me.

1st inning:
ground out
ground out
fly out

2nd inning:
walk
single on a fly ball (was this a lucky bloop?)
walk
double on a ground ball (down the line i'm assuming?)
sacrifice fly
ground out
strikeout

3rd inning:
walk
pop out
single on a ground ball up the middle
pop out
ground out

4th inning:
line out
ground out
ground out

5th inning:
ground out
fly out
strikeout

In total:
2 strikeouts
3 walks
9 ground balls
4 fly balls
2 popups
1 liner

And the second time through the order:
2 strikeouts
1 walk
5 ground balls
1 fly ball
2 popups
1 liner

The walks in the second inning were obviously bad, but it doesn't appear that the Jays were squaring up too many balls against him and he kept the ball on the ground for the most part. How well he did the second time through the order is also encouraging, and I don't see any of you Bard naysayers noting this. I thought that was supposed to be his problem converting to a starter? "Bullshit", I said then, and I say now. He sucked in the rain delay game. Big deal. Bard has never had a good spring, anyway. Jon Lester has a 5.73 spring ERA with 4 Ks and 7 BBs. Omg, maybe we should convert him to a LOOGY!

[Rasputin]

I didn't see Bard's last start, but looking at the play-by-play, it's actually encouraging to me.

2nd inning:
walk
single on a fly ball (was this a lucky bloop?)

I don't remember it being particularly bloopish, just your basic single.

walk
double on a ground ball (down the line i'm assuming?)

Yeah, very hard hit, just a few inches inside the third base line.

The walks in the second inning were obviously bad, but it doesn't appear that the Jays were squaring up too many balls against him and he kept the ball on the ground for the most part. How well he did the second time through the order is also encouraging, and I don't see any of you Bard naysayers noting this. I thought that was supposed to be his problem converting to a starter? "Bullshit", I said then, and I say now. He sucked in the rain delay game. Big deal. Bard has never had a good spring, anyway. Jon Lester has a 5.73 spring ERA with 4 Ks and 7 BBs. Omg, maybe we should convert him to a LOOGY!

People are bitching because they like to bitch. It's spring training. He's working on stuff. I don't get what the angst is about. He's a pitcher with a lifetime 1.056 WHIP whose WHIP has gone down every year.

[Rasputin]

The Red Sox only chance this year of competing with the Yankees for the Division title is for Daniel Bard to be an ace level starting pitcher. Rasputin keeps focusing on the Red Sox upgrades without considering the upgrades everyone else made. If Bard is the 4th starter replacing the amalgam of Matsuzaka/Wakefield in the 4th spot, then that's an upgrade the Yankees can't match. Bard's better than Freddy Garcia. If that group competing for the 5th spot has to be broken into a group competing for the 4th spot and another one for the 5th spot, then the likelihood of the lesser group improving on Wakefield/Matsuzaka is almost nil.

The other upgrades to Boston's rotation were matched by Yankee upgrades. While the Red Sox are replacing Buchholz/Miller/Weiland in the 3rd spot with hopefully a full season of Buchholz, the Yankees are replacing AJ Burnett with Kuroda. While the Red Sox are replacing John Lackey with some combination of pitchers that can reasonably be expected to put up an ERA between 4.25 and 5.00, the Yankees are replacing Bartolo Colon/Phil Hughes with Michael Pineda.

You're actually saying that if the Sox don't have an ace level starter in the #4 slot they're screwed. That is so messed in the head it isn't even funny. If the Sox have four ace caliber pitchers the Sox win this division pretty easily.

The Yankees have depth certainly but if you think they're trotting out three or four aces I'm pretty sure you're going to be completely mistaken. Pineda certainly looks good but he did end up putting up a 103 ERA+ last year playing half his games in Safeco. Hiroki Kuroda isn't putting up a 121 ERA+ in the AL East.

And you're ignoring the point that upgrading over Matsuzaka/Wakefield isn't the big deal. Upgrading over John Lackey is the big deal. There were eleven games where he allowed five runs or more, including five where he allowed seven runs or more. AJ Burnett, just for comparison's sake, had six and four. On the other end, AJ Burnett had 18 games where he allowed less than four runs a game and Lackey had nine.

I cannot stress this enough, marginal competence out of the #5 spot is a bigger improvement than anything the Yankees did. We have yet to see it, of course, and I sure as shit wanted someone else in the mix so I could be more confident that we'd get at least marginal competence but the marginal competence bar isn't a terribly high one. If Felix Doubront goes out there and manages an ERA+ of 91 while missing only a few starts, we'll have gotten marginal competence.

You want to tell me the Yankees have a better staff right now, I have no argument. They've got enviable depth. You're not saying that, though, you're saying the Sox need four aces to compete with them and that's lunacy.

[JimBoSox9]

I do know this: It's wholly unfair and biased to say that Bobby and the Red Sox are heavily weighing ST stats, as if this were fact.

I do know this: When Bobby says he doesn't know if Bard is a starter, and specifically cites his ST walks in the same statement, then the possible reasons are:

A) Bobby is heavily weighing ST stats, or
B) He's not heavily weighing ST stats, just felt like questioning Bard's transition publicly is just the motivational tool the kid needs to perform better.

Am I being wholly unfair and biased to say that neither of those possibilities reflect well on Bobby?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The Red Sox only chance this year of competing with the Yankees for the Division title is for Daniel Bard to be an ace level starting pitcher.

I would just like to reiterate that this statement is absolute bunk.

There are so many ways that the Sox could end up competing with the Yankees for the Division title, including last year's not-preferred method of shitty 3-4-5 pitching matched with an incredibly explosive offense.

There are so many ways that the Sox could end up out of competition with the Yankees for the Division title, including Bard throwing 200 IP of 3.25 ERA ball matched with failures or injuries at other key positions.

Let the season play out before issuing such ridiculous doom-and-gloom messages. Oh, and let Bard start!

[Plympton91]

Oh, and let Bard start!

Yeah, that's pretty much my main point in all this.

[Laser Show]

I do know this: When Bobby says he doesn't know if Bard is a starter, and specifically cites his ST walks in the same statement, then the possible reasons are:

A) Bobby is heavily weighing ST stats, or
B) He's not heavily weighing ST stats, just felt like questioning Bard's transition publicly is just the motivational tool the kid needs to perform better.

Am I being wholly unfair and biased to say that neither of those possibilities reflect well on Bobby?

or it could be C) Bobby's never liked this idea and is using Bard's recent performance as a way to try to end it. Before this, there was really no way he could justify the reversal of course.

[trekfan55]

[/size][/font][/color]

The Yankees have depth certainly but if you think they're trotting out three or four aces I'm pretty sure you're going to be completely mistaken. Pineda certainly looks good but he did end up putting up a 103 ERA+ last year playing half his games in Safeco. Hiroki Kuroda isn't putting up a 121 ERA+ in the AL East.

Just a question, isn't ERA+ supposed to compensate for park effects and opponents strength?

[Rasputin]

Just a question, isn't ERA+ supposed to compensate for park effects and opponents strength?

I could be wrong, of course, but I don't think so.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I could be wrong, of course, but I don't think so.

ERA+ is park adjusted. From B-R.com: "ERA+ --- 100*[lgERA/ERA] Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)."

[HillysLastWalk]

I do know this: When Bobby says he doesn't know if Bard is a starter, and specifically cites his ST walks in the same statement, then the possible reasons are:

A) Bobby is heavily weighing ST stats, or
B) He's not heavily weighing ST stats, just felt like questioning Bard's transition publicly is just the motivational tool the kid needs to perform better.

Am I being wholly unfair and biased to say that neither of those possibilities reflect well on Bobby?

First, can I get a link to the articles that you are reading? Or some type of transcript? As I'd like to be on the same page.

Anyhow, I do think I personally focused on the wording. As in heavily weighing ST stats. Has that really been established? Was it a comment he made, along with a bunch of other points he made? Because I'm thinking that was the case. And for some reason there was a focus on one sentence from within paragraphs?

And when he mentioned walks, was that a question that was specifically addressed to him? Example:

Bobby: *talking about various things in regards to the start. Things not mentioned here in this thread*

Reporter: And what about the walks?

Bobby: (paraphrasing) well, I wasn't happy with them.

Because this is a likely scenario too. And doesn't show us one way or the other whether Bobby *and* the Red Sox are heavily weighing ST stats. Or even slightly weighing them.

Also, even the mention of ST walks, can someone like Bobby or the pitching coach evaluate some reasoning behind the walks? As in something mechanical? Something they can see with their eyes? Something that Bard is having a hard time implementing or repeating?

All of the above reasons seem valid and is why I felt the original comment was unfair and biased. And in response to your question, none of the above?

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 22 March 2012 - 05:36 PM.

[Rasputin]

ERA+ is park adjusted. From B-R.com: "ERA+ --- 100*[lgERA/ERA] Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)."

So they adjust for ballpark but make no attempt to adjust for competition. So take a guy from a division where they average 4.0 runs a game and move him into a division where they average 4.8 runs a game.

[barclay]

So they adjust for ballpark but make no attempt to adjust for competition. So take a guy from a division where they average 4.0 runs a game and move him into a division where they average 4.8 runs a game.

Just to pile on -- and to be very old fashioned about this -- we do know that Pineda pitched 83.2 innings last year (a good enough SS) against the Al East (by which I include Bos, Tor, Balt, TB but not the Yanks) and its chief competitiors (Detroit, Tex, and LAA). He gave up 49 earned runs. Thats a 4 and a 9. Every Yankee fan I know is revelling in Pineda. He might be that good. But he has not earned it so far.

[RedOctober3829]

Bobby V said on ESPN that Padilla is no longer in the running for a spot in the rotation.

[Rasputin]

Bobby V said on ESPN that Padilla is no longer in the running for a spot in the rotation.

Why isn't he? Too much sweat?

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

Why isn't he? Too much sweat?

His phrasing indicated it was due to the injury.

[barclay]

I admit I’d love to see Padilla and Aceves in the pen for no good reason other than to evoke a realistic fear and trembling in the opposing batters (for their mortal well-being) – I want to be able to say after the 6^th inning -- with the greatest affection and a real joy -- here come…Los Hombres Locos

Edited by barclay, 22 March 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[barclay]

And then there's this: Dice-K in early June? Hmmm...

http://browniepoints...h-by-early-june

Edit: the above link was mentioned in the Dice-K thread -- but by my account that leaves 6-9 starts before he comes back into the rotation, effectively negating the need for a 4-5 starter. I would assume thats bad news for Bard, given what BV is saying recently.

Edited by barclay, 22 March 2012 - 07:59 PM.

[luckysox]

How far away is Cook from being ready to throw 100 pitches? He might be the answer at one of the #4 or #5 slots, allowing two guys who can go long (Aceves, Padilla) to clean up for Bard/Cook if necessary from an IP pov. He was't too bad tonight, even with the 3rd inning happening.

[luckysox]

And let me just say, I don't know if it bodes well that this board is clamoring for Dice's return.

[mabrowndog]

How far away is Cook from being ready to throw 100 pitches? He might be the answer at one of the #4 or #5 slots, allowing two guys who can go long (Aceves, Padilla) to clean up for Bard/Cook if necessary from an IP pov. He was't too bad tonight, even with the 3rd inning happening.

Granted I didn't see every pitch tonight, but from what I did see Cook's stuff was middling at best. His success came mainly against the low-end fluff of the Yankee lineup, but he gave up several hard-hit balls including the single-triple-single combo that led to the two-run 4th. His only real highlight was the sweet pickoff move to nail Andruw.

He got a late start in camp, so I don't think he's a serious candidate for the rotation. They'll probably keep him in Pawtucket until his May 1 opt-out deadline.

Edited by mabrowndog, 22 March 2012 - 08:41 PM.

[luckysox]

I think all of the candidates for the last spot have been pretty middling. Doubront has been eh, Padilla is out of the running, Miller is hurt, Aceves has been eh...nothing too encouraging. Hopefully whoever gets the call steps up a bit once the season rolls around. Maybe in the end, it doesn't matter which version of middling gets tossed out there, as long as he is better than the crap from last season's #5 suckfest.

[rembrat]

Cook only gave up one hard hit tonight, the triple off Granderson's bat. His stuff isnt dazzling but his sinker gets alot of movement and he throws it for strikes. 31 of 48 pitches were strikes vs the Yankees. He is also great at controlling runners, he had 2 picks offs.

If he had enough innings the #5 spot would be his.

[Sprowl]

Aceves has been eh...nothing too encouraging.

Aceves' line so far in spring training: 9 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 0 bb, 8 K. He has looked pretty good with all four pitches too.

This is a tough crowd, but at this rate Alfredo should be starting every Thursday.

[barclay]

Aceves' line so far in spring training: 9 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 0 bb, 8 K. He has looked pretty good with all four pitches too.

This is a tough crowd, but at this rate Alfredo should be starting every Thursday.

And I think he will be – unless I’ve missed something (a real possibility) I don’t recall BV saying anything negative about him (as opposed to every other possible starter). On the contrary, he seems to really like him – particularly his drive and attitude (both important to BV). Combine that with his spring and it sure looks to be the case that he will start (alert: reading tea leaves may be fun but shouldn’t be taken to Las Vegas. Especially if I’m the one doing the wagering. Just ask my brother.) Cook, on the other hand, is intriguing. The Moustache loves him, and with Dice-K coming back as early as June I would not be surprised to see him at the #5 for the 6-9 starts – with Inglesias in tow for obvious reasons. Probably not happening – but its possible.

[luckysox]

Aceves' line so far in spring training: 9 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 0 bb, 8 K. He has looked pretty good with all four pitches too.

This is a tough crowd, but at this rate Alfredo should be starting every Thursday.

Didn't he get roughed up in a B game his last time out, or am I mis-remembering? I could be, in which case I take back my eh.