176 replies to this topic

[TomRicardo]

We know what the first three spots look like:

Lester
Beckett
Buchholz

After that at moment it looks like:

Aceves
Doubront
Padilla

Bard

[trekfan55]

I haven't seen any wavering on the decision to make Bard a starter, yesterday's outing notwithstanding. The way the rotation has been set up, Bard has been practically ordained as the #4 starter, and while he did have a major setback, I'm not sure that he has been leapfrogged by everyone else.

[mabrowndog]

I'm with Trekfan. I don't see Bard losing out on a spot despite his 8th-inning meltdown. The #4 slot has his name on it.

I also don't see Doubront as a serious rotation contender unless Padilla craps the bed. Felix will likely stick in the pen.

Meanwhile, the Sox are keeping their options open for the 5-hole as they are reportedly once again kicking the tires on Joe Blanton.

[rembrat]

I also don't see Doubront as a serious rotation contender unless Padilla craps the bed. Felix will likely stick in the pen.

So do you think Bobby V is playing Jedi mind tricks with Padilla through the media saying he isnt being looked at as a starter and that he is the best "strike thrower" on the club? Strike thrower in this context is code for bullpen pitcher.

Half way through ST and Padilla hasnt made a start while Felix has made 2.

[reggiecleveland]

It is early but this spring Bard has walked 7 guys in 8 innings. The reason he was made a reliever was his control was poor. If he isn't showing more control by the end of the spring he may make it a race.

[lexrageorge]

It is early but this spring Bard has walked 7 guys in 8 innings. The reason he was made a reliever was his control was poor. If he isn't showing more control by the end of the spring he may make it a race.

4 of those walks were in one outing.

Generally, I don't see the team making a major decision, such as moving Bard back to the pen, based on one bad outing in Florida. That's Cafardo thinking. But, I agree his spot as the #4 does not come with a 100% guarantee, and he'll need to show better command going forward.

[twothousandone]

I read the opening posts as Bard is solid as #5, Aceves, Padilla, Doubront are battling for #4.

If that is the case, any questions about Bard likely bode well for Aceves. A bullpen of Aceves, Bard, Bailey and Melancon is probably wasting good pitchers on low leverage innings.

I could see Aceves in the bullpen while they see if Bard can throw strikes as a starter, and they swap them in May if Bard can't.

[TomRicardo]

4 of those walks were in one outing.

Generally, I don't see the team making a major decision, such as moving Bard back to the pen, based on one bad outing in Florida. That's Cafardo thinking. But, I agree his spot as the #4 does not come with a 100% guarantee, and he'll need to show better command going forward.

Bard has had two bad outings where he couldn't control his secondary pitches. The same problem which led to him being a moved to the bullpen.

[Pumpsie]

I haven't seen any wavering on the decision to make Bard a starter, yesterday's outing notwithstanding. The way the rotation has been set up, Bard has been practically ordained as the #4 starter, and while he did have a major setback, I'm not sure that he has been leapfrogged by everyone else.

Oh, really? Here's what Valentine had to say in today's CBS Sportsline.com Spring Training article on the Sox about Bard as the #4 starter: "That hasn't been put in concrete yet in my mind," Valentine cautions.

And that's good to see, IMO, because Bard has shown nothing so far to make him the #4 starter. Aceves, Doubront, and Padilla are all ahead of him right now.

[Sprowl]

Oh, really? Here's what Valentine had to say in today's CBS Sportsline.com Spring Training article on the Sox about Bard as the #4 starter: "That hasn't been put in concrete yet in my mind," Valentine cautions.

And that's good to see, IMO, because Bard has shown nothing so far to make him the #4 starter. Aceves, Doubront, and Padilla are all ahead of him right now.

That's a little tough on Bard. I saw him pitch twice, once in person, and he looked outstanding while using primarily the fastball. Failure to hit his spots with the slider in one game in spring training is not a significant problem IMO, any more than Beckett's one rocky start.

Aceves has been outstanding throughout, and Doubront has been strong. Padilla's contract includes receiver as well as starter incentives, so he looks headed for the bullpen. The Red Sox are in pretty good condition to withstand an injury to one of the starters.

[Super Nomario]

I'm skeptical of the "Bard to the rotation" experiment, but if the FO thought it was a good idea before the season they shouldn't abandon it just because he's had 8 lousy innings.

[mabrowndog]

Half way through ST and Padilla hasnt made a start while Felix has made 2.

Halfway through ST and only 3 Sox pitchers (Beckett, Aceves & Bard) have thrown more innings than Padilla's 7 IP. Who actually starts in a ST game is meaningless as far as role projection.

I could well be wrong about Padilla's job, and there may well be sincerity to BV's comments, but I'm not about to treat them as gospel.

[dbn]

I wonder how much spring training results matter for pitchers, both in terms of the coaches/GM evaluating who will get a spot in the rotation/bullpen as well as predictive power of how well a player might pitch in the regular season. As regards the former, it obviously matters some, as real decisions seem to be made during ST and based on ST results. However, I suspect the decisions are based more on the coaches/GM "scouting" of their own players than with actual results. For example, perhaps player X is working on pitch Y a lot, which is his weaker pitch so his overall results aren't as attractive. Surely they combine this self-scouting with what they already know of the players ability. I kind of feel that we've had this discussion in STs past, but my memory isn't very good.

N.B. that I'm not at all suggesting that we, a Red Sox discussion forum, shouldn't be (over-)analyzing ever appearance if not pitch. It's how we do.

[rembrat]

Halfway through ST and only 3 Sox pitchers (Beckett, Aceves & Bard) have thrown more innings than Padilla's 7 IP. Who actually starts in a ST game is meaningless as far as role projection.

I could well be wrong about Padilla's job, and there may well be sincerity to BV's comments, but I'm not about to treat them as gospel.

That's because you have omitted the "B" games. While they don't count in the Grapefruit League they still count towards arm strength and preparation.

Felix threw 2IP on March 3rd.
Lester threw 2.2IP on March 7th.
Buchholz threw 4IP on March 13th.

That brings their totals to Felix (8IP) Lester (10.2IP /4IP from today) and Buchholz (9IP). That bumps Padilla down to about 7th place.

[mabrowndog]

That brings their totals to Felix (8IP) Lester (10.2IP /4IP from today) and Buchholz (9IP). That bumps Padilla down to about 7th place.

Really? You're seriously digging in your heels on this stance based on the IP rankings of pitchers within a range of 7 to 10.2 cumulative innings? That -- along with who makes the starts in spring games -- is your most reliable barometer for who's got the inside track on a rotation slot?

Edited by mabrowndog, 16 March 2012 - 08:10 PM.

[rembrat]

Not really. You first mentioned the IP rankings, I merely posted the correct numbers. My stance is based on what the manager has said thus far.

[Plympton91]

Wasn't Bard terrible last spring, too? I wouldn't worry about how well an established, healthy pitcher is doing 3 weeks into spring training. However, if you're going to be worried about Bard based on his performance to date this spring, then you should be just as concerned about how well he would pitch in relief. Because, so far, March looks an awful lot like September. The concern about transitioning him as a starter should be how he'd do in the 5th inning and beyond, not the 3rd.

Moreover, if Bard isn't pretty much inked in as the 4th starter, then the strategy of this whole offseason is baffling. If they had any doubt whatsoever about Bard as a starter, they should have sat him down and explained that they needed him to close and couldn't afford to experiment in 2012. Because, if he ends up back in the pen, then It means they opened a hole in RF and spent $10 million on 3 players they didn't, in the end, actually need.

So, a failure of Bard to be an above average starter would be a failure of the organizational talent evaluation as well. Or, maybe they don't think Bard can close either?

Why was Papelbon asking for too much, again?

[RedOctober3829]

Red Sox Manager Bobby Valentine announced today that left-handed pitcher Jon Lester will be the club’s starter on Opening Day, April 5 in Detroit.

https://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/RedSox

[OCD SS]

Why was Papelbon asking for too much, again?

Simple math: you take an understanding that not every year is going to be just like last year, then subtract for declining peripherals in those years, divide by the number of times he would throw 20+ fastballs in a row, and then multiply by $50M.

[joyofsox]

BV also said Beckett would get the home opener against the Rays on the 13th.

[No Guru No Method]

Simple math: you take an understanding that not every year is going to be just like last year, then subtract for declining peripherals in those years, divide by the number of times he would throw 20+ fastballs in a row, and then multiply by $50M.

And he obviously wanted to pitch in front of "smarter" fans.

[TomRicardo]

If they had any doubt whatsoever about Bard as a starter, they should have sat him down and explained that they needed him to close and couldn't afford to experiment in 2012.

I ran this through my head a couple of times and I still don't get it.

They lose nothing by stretching him out and seeing what he can do this Spring. Also the money for Bailey would have been used for who exactly who is better than Ross?

[mabrowndog]

Aceves pitched for the Pawsox against Durham yesterday: 6 IP, 3 ER on 7 H (4 doubles) with 2 Ks & 0 BB. He worked with catcher Matt Spring and "left some pitches up" according to PawSox broadcaster Aaron Goldsmith.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And there there were six...

Padilla goes down with a strained hammy.

[rembrat]

While lifting weights. What the hell.

God help us all if Andrew Miller has a great outing tonight.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

God help us all if Andrew Miller has a great outing tonight.

Apparently, Miller will be pitching exclusively out of the stretch tonight, so I'm not sure that a great outing would affect his rotation chances one way or the other. His bullpen chances, certainly. But he seems like he may be taking himself out of the rotation mix by kiboshing the windup.

[EddieYost]

Apparently, Miller will be pitching exclusively out of the stretch tonight, so I'm not sure that a great outing would affect his rotation chances one way or the other. His bullpen chances, certainly. But he seems like he may be taking himself out of the rotation mix by kiboshing the windup.

Bobby V said it was not purely a relief thing. He thinks Miller is just better out of the stretch.

[Pumpsie]

The price for John Lannen just went up. Andrew Miller had better pitch well.

[Plympton91]

And Bard finishes by retiring 8 straight, most 5th inning fastballs at 96, with one or two at 97 mph, and drops a curveball to whiff Batistia for his last batter of the night. I keep asking and nobody has an answer -- who was the last dominant relief pitcher that converted to a starter and failed to at least provide somewhat above average production?

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

And Bard finishes by retiring 8 straight, most 5th inning fastballs at 96, with one or two at 97 mph, and drops a curveball to whiff Batistia for his last batter of the night. I keep asking and nobody has an answer -- who was the last dominant relief pitcher that converted to a starter and failed to at least provide somewhat above average production?

Joba?

[Plympton91]

Joba?

Great through July and then wore down badly. Hopefully they can avoid that with the return of Matsuzaka and the presence of Doubront, Padilla, and Aceves.

Edited by Plympton91, 20 March 2012 - 09:36 PM.

[Laser Show]

McAdam says Bard might be the odd-man out:

One Red Sox staff member has told others outside the organization that, when all is said and done, Alfredo Aceves and Felix Doubront will have spots in the rotation, with Daniel Bard returning to the bullpen.

It had been assumed that Bard would be given every opportunity to nail down the No. 4 spot. But after two sharp, shorter outings earlier in the Grapefruit League schedule, Bard has struggled over his last two outings, walking seven hitters and allowing 10 hits in 7 2/3 innings.

On Tuesday night, about an hour after Bard had expressed satisfaction that he had taken a step forward, Valentine, in his post-game remarks, did seemingly everything he could to question Bard's suitability for the rotation.

Edited by Laser Show, 21 March 2012 - 02:17 PM.

[SoxScout]

I don't know what others think, but this is horrifying to me. Bard is going to the pen at some point anyways, he clearly wants this ("God forbid I have to pitch in middle relief"), the Sox liked the idea enough to give it a try, and they are pulling the plug 3 weeks in?

Aceves and Doubront may start the year in the rotation, but no way in hell they finish there.

Edited by SoxScout, 21 March 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Bard to the pen, as a set up man? This will not end well. Good luck, Bobby.

[Laser Show]

Yea, I don't like this. Changing course this early is just going to mess with him psychologically and will probably piss him off too. At this point you have to give him a chance.

I don't think any of us would've had Bard down as a set-up man in 2012.

[Adrian's Dome]

Bard to the pen, as a set up man? This will not end well. Good luck, Bobby.

I, for one, would rather have him there. Bailey's as big a risk as any of our starters, Doubront needs a spot, and Aceves isn't necessary in the pen with Bard there.

If he can't accept that role, then oh well. Every shred of evidence we have to this point in his career shows that's where he's most effective.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you're going to give the kid a chance, give him a chance. If he's moved to the pen without ever starting a big league game, than it seems to be further evidence that this organization has been winging it for months and doesn't have a cohesive plan.

[EddieYost]

Why not make him the closer and make Bailey the setup man or ace or whatever?

[SoxScout]

Why not make him the closer and make Bailey the setup man or ace or whatever?

Why? Bailey is an excellent closer and is healthy. We don't know if Bard can close, and doing that would move another key piece into a different role.

I don't see why Bard in the rotation and Ace/Melancon/Bailey isn't at least given a shot. If Bard sucks, then you can get him out of there and go with a corpse like Cook or Padilla if need be.

[bosockboy]

Had a feeling this would happen. They will have a filthy bullpen now.....my guess is they may be about to acquire a starter and that's what facilitated this.

[CreightonGubanich]

I can't imagine what you possibly would lose by giving Bard the month of April, at the least, to prove himself in the rotation. I guess it's possible that he's awful, but so what? You already know you have the option of swinging Aceves back into a starting role (assuming the 5 slot goes to Doubront or Padilla). If it doesn't work out, Aceves takes his spot and Bard goes back to the pen knowing he gave it a shot. Instead, it looks like he could get demoted without starting a single regular season game, knowing the Sox don't have a plan for him to close.

The upside is Bard works out the kinks and turns into a potential top of the rotation starter. I don't understand the rationale behind pulling the plug now, if that's indeed what the Sox are doing.

[rembrat]

This implies Bobby has a lot more power than we suspected. Awful.

[EddieYost]

Why? Bailey is an excellent closer and is healthy. We don't know if Bard can close, and doing that would move another key piece into a different role.

I don't see why Bard in the rotation and Ace/Melancon/Bailey isn't at least given a shot. If Bard sucks, then you can get him out of there and go with a corpse like Cook or Padilla if need be.

Yeah, I would give Bard the spot in the rotation to see how it goes. I was just thinking that he is going to be really pissed (not that that should matter) if he doesn't get the closer job AND he doesn't get a chance as a starter.

[Savin Hillbilly]

This implies Bobby has a lot more power than we suspected. Awful.

I certainly suspected that Bobby would have the power to decide how to deploy the talent the FO has assembled for him.

I mean, sure, you expect major role-assignment decisions like this to be discussed and hashed out with Cherington etc., but ultimately, it's up to the manager to decide who plays when and for how long, so it's not like there's some kind of coup happening here.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I certainly suspected that Bobby would have the power to decide how to deploy the talent the FO has assembled for him.

I mean, sure, you expect major role-assignment decisions like this to be discussed and hashed out with Cherington etc., but ultimately, it's up to the manager to decide who plays when and for how long, so it's not like there's some kind of coup happening here.

Absolutely the manager should have that power, but it is a bit disconcerting if the manager is going to flush a plan down the toilet based on 3-4 spring starts when the team obviously geared their entire pitching personnel plan this off-season around using Bard as a starter.

Aceves has shown to have a rubber arm that can slide from the pen to the rotation and back with little ill effect. Padilla can be stashed at Pawtucket until at least May 1st, as can Cook. Seems the most efficient deployment to start the season would be Bard and Doubront in the rotation, and if either falters, they can be moved to the pen with Aceves moving to the rotation.

[Pumpsie]

This implies Bobby has a lot more power than we suspected. Awful.

More like "great!" One changeup in 83 pitches? From a short reliever trying to become a starter? With the season two starts away? That's just not going to work. The front office seems to have made a mistake in trying to convert Bard at this time. He's not a "pitcher" yet. Good thing there's someone around to correct them. The last thing this team needs, with its brutal early schedule, is to get off to a bad start with its starters flaming out early all over the place. That would look way too much like a continuation of last September. Having steady-Eddie Aceves going instead would help ensure a little more consistency from the rotation.

[SoxScout]

People talking like Aceves is such a sure thing, I think he is a much worse pitcher than Bard with a much higher chance to get rocked on any given day. There is some serious blinders about what he is based on his .230 BABIP and 80% LOB% last season. If he is starting at least we might get to see the HBP record broken.

Bard's arm gives him a shot to be a very good starter. The other 6 or so guys are shit you hope sticks for a few starts in a row. Jumping to that point before giving Bard a chance is just silly to me when you can always switch back if it doesn't pan out.

Edited by SoxScout, 21 March 2012 - 03:42 PM.

[Sprowl]

I can't imagine what you possibly would lose by giving Bard the month of April, at the least, to prove himself in the rotation. I guess it's possible that he's awful, but so what? You already know you have the option of swinging Aceves back into a starting role (assuming the 5 slot goes to Doubront or Padilla). If it doesn't work out, Aceves takes his spot and Bard goes back to the pen knowing he gave it a shot. Instead, it looks like he could get demoted without starting a single regular season game, knowing the Sox don't have a plan for him to close.

The upside is Bard works out the kinks and turns into a potential top of the rotation starter. I don't understand the rationale behind pulling the plug now, if that's indeed what the Sox are doing.

Why assume that Doubront or Padilla gets the fifth slot? Padilla is injured and will probably head for the bullpen when he is recovered. Doubront has pitched reasonably well, but has allowed a ton of baserunners and is having trouble putting batters away with his curve and changeup. Aceves has pitched easily the best of the Bard-Aceves-Doubront trio so far. To be sure, it's a very small sample, but in terms of commanding the full range of a starter's repertoire, the data merely confirm the observations.

One story from an unnamed source, supplemented by speculation about the manager's tone in a press conference, is not exactly conclusive. My money is still on Bard and Aceves as #4 and #5, with Doubront and Morales as the lefties in the bullpen.

If Bard is only throwing one changeup in 83 pitches, what is the catcher doing with the game plan?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Absolutely the manager should have that power, but it is a bit disconcerting if the manager is going to flush a plan down the toilet based on 3-4 spring starts when the team obviously geared their entire pitching personnel plan this off-season around using Bard as a starter.

I agree. I was just responding to the suggestion that we were looking at some kind of power grab on Valentine's part.

[rembrat]

More like "great!" One changeup in 83 pitches? From a short reliever trying to become a starter? With the season two starts away? That's just not going to work. The front office seems to have made a mistake in trying to convert Bard at this time. He's not a "pitcher" yet. Good thing there's someone around to correct them. The last thing this team needs, with its brutal early schedule, is to get off to a bad start with its starters flaming out early all over the place. That would look way too much like a continuation of last September. Having steady-Eddie Aceves going instead would help ensure a little more consistency from the rotation.

You've really sipping from that KoolAid. Listen Bard could bomb as a starter but he should be given a legitimate shot. We saw Lester pitch like dogcrap for a long time before he finally put it together.

Besides, I was under the impression that Bard was a shit starter because the FO tinkered with his mechanics. 10IP in March is enough to disprove this theory?

I also hope you enjoy Nick Punto leading off.