Can you tell anything from Ross's deep stats like FB/LD/GB ratios or which field he hits to about how much Fenway might help him against righthanded pitching, and likewise how much Sweeney's batted ball distributions might be hurt by Fenway's deep right and right center fields?
Seems to me I want Aviles and Ross in the game when I'm at Fenway, while the platoon on the road with Sweeney and Punto makes more sense.
Here's Ross' 3 year hit chart vs. RHP:
He's moving from a park which is tough on RHB at 339 feet to left, to Fenway, which is easily the best RHB park in baseball. Obviously Fenway will give him a boost. Interestingly, he's hit better at home in his career, 112 wRC+ to 97.
Now Sweeney's 3 year hit chart vs. RHP:
He's moving from a park which is tough on LHB, as it is 330 feet down both lines with a shape which makes the corners get deeper quickly, to Fenway, which is still a good LHB park, especially to opposite field hitters. Sweeney's hit chart shows him to be the prototypical opposite field hitter. He will likely get quite a boost at Fenway as well. He is also the better fielder according to UZR.
After looking at this, I'm warming up to the idea of giving Ross some starts at home against RHP. I'd maybe follow a guideline like the following: As long as both players are healthy, give Ross all starts vs. LHP, give Sweeney all of the road starts vs. RHP, and give Ross half of the home starts vs. RHP pitchers which the advance scouting says are his top 50% matchups. This would end up around a 52.5%/47.5% split overall in Sweeney's favor.
@aron7awol: I'd be curious to know where CAIRO is getting that .352 wOBA projection vs. RHP for Sweeney, considering that would top his career high by .002 and his career average by .020. (Actually their projections for him vs. LHP are even more optimistic in career context.) I take it they're projecting an age-27 breakout. Are they projecting the improvement to be mostly in the ISO column?
I wondered the same. Ross has a career wOBA split of .317/.384 and is projected by CAIRO at .318/.350. Sweeney has a career wOBA split of .332/.272 and is projected by CAIRO at .352/.313. It is certainly expecting a breakout for some reason. Let's take a deeper look...
His career batting average vs. RHP is .296, so I think it mostly comes down to his improved walk rate last season. In 2011 he hit .286/.365/.377 vs. RHP, with a career high 11.2 BB%. If that new level of patience is real, and you simply use his career rates for AVG and ISO, you end up with a projected line of .296/.375/.402. This is without adjusting for Fenway.
Sweeney's overall CAIRO projection is .298/.362/.410, with a projection of 21.5% of his PAs against LHP. After looking at these numbers, it looks like CAIRO thinks his improved patience is a real projectable skill that he's developed. He went from career BB% around 8% for the first 4 years of his career to 11% last season.
Now, the other question that I don't know the answer to is, "Why the low projection for Cody Ross vs. LHP?"
Edited by aron7awol, 31 March 2012 - 06:13 PM.