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Projecting the Final 25


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#51 Doctor G

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 11:29 AM

The argument that Aceves has more value as a reliever than as a starter should not disqualify him from beating out bard for a starting job if he outpitches Bard in ST. Both have an established value as a reliever. i just believe that a great set-up man is more valuable than the role that Aceves filled last year. if Bard doesn't establish his potential value as a starter in ST, and Aceves does ,it should be Aceves' job.
I would rather have Bard available as a closer if Bailey has injury problems during the season which is a real possibility given his history. To throw Melancon into the closers role as a fill in seems like playing with fire. I like Melancon 7th, Bard 8th, Bailey 9th.

#52 Pumpsie


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 12:27 PM

The argument that Aceves has more value as a reliever than as a starter should not disqualify him from beating out bard for a starting job if he outpitches Bard in ST. Both have an established value as a reliever. i just believe that a great set-up man is more valuable than the role that Aceves filled last year. if Bard doesn't establish his potential value as a starter in ST, and Aceves does ,it should be Aceves' job.
I would rather have Bard available as a closer if Bailey has injury problems during the season which is a real possibility given his history. To throw Melancon into the closers role as a fill in seems like playing with fire. I like Melancon 7th, Bard 8th, Bailey 9th.


I think this is a valid way to look at our pitching set up. As valid as having Bard as our #4 starter and then working from that assumption.

#53 lexrageorge

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 12:32 PM

I think it's a mistake to think that the Sox are deliberately slotting Aceves into the pen solely because of his versatility or value. Yes, Aceves looked pretty good last year in the bullpen last year. However, there are reasons why Bard has had the inside track in terms of winning a spot in the rotation:

- Aceves has had control issues of his own, and his K/BB ratio last season was under 2. Bard's ratio was >3.

- Aceves had 2 quality starts, one so-so, and one bad one last season. At 28, he's yet to show he can be a quality back-of-rotation arm.

Yes, Bard has some question marks, but he's 2 years younger and can strike guys out. He's at least earned the chance to compete for a slot in the rotation.

if Bard doesn't establish his potential value as a starter in ST, and Aceves does ,it should be Aceves' job.


To a point, I agree. I think the thing to keep in mind is that the criteria Valentine and the Sox staff to decide this is likely going to be very different than the ones Abraham and Cafardo use. IOW, while Aceves may appear to "outpitch" Bard in ST, that may not be enough to earn him a nod in the rotation over Bard.

#54 maufman


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 03:06 PM

Moving Bard from the bullpen to the rotation was a major strategic decision by the FO. Bard would have to be unimaginably bad for them to reverse course prior to Opening Day.

If BV were calling the shots, Bard might go back to the bullpen right away. In this day and age, however, this sort of decision is almost always made by the FO (though the Sox, like most clubs, will keep up the ruse that it's the manager's decision). So BV can say what he wants about Bard going back to the bullpen; imo, the soonest that will happen is May 1st, and Bard would have to be horrendous in April for that to happen.

If I'm wrong on this, and the club reverses itself on Bard based on a few rough outings in Spring Training, then I will begin to believe the naysayers who think the Sox' FO has thrown rationality out the window in the wake of the 2011 collapse. I'm still optimistic to think that won't happen.

#55 The Boomer

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 03:36 PM

Moving Bard from the bullpen to the rotation was a major strategic decision by the FO. Bard would have to be unimaginably bad for them to reverse course prior to Opening Day.

If BV were calling the shots, Bard might go back to the bullpen right away. In this day and age, however, this sort of decision is almost always made by the FO (though the Sox, like most clubs, will keep up the ruse that it's the manager's decision). So BV can say what he wants about Bard going back to the bullpen; imo, the soonest that will happen is May 1st, and Bard would have to be horrendous in April for that to happen.

If I'm wrong on this, and the club reverses itself on Bard based on a few rough outings in Spring Training, then I will begin to believe the naysayers who think the Sox' FO has thrown rationality out the window in the wake of the 2011 collapse. I'm still optimistic to think that won't happen.


If the conversion to starter falters, Bard might simply save face and, like Papelbon, state his preference to return to the bullpen before BV or management makes it official.

#56 Doctor G

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 03:57 PM

Aceves minor league record:

http://www.baseball-...id=aceves002alf

This is clearly superior to Bard's record as a starter in the minors.

Edited by Doctor G, 18 March 2012 - 04:01 PM.


#57 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 04:07 PM

If the conversion to starter falters, Bard might simply save face and, like Papelbon, state his preference to return to the bullpen before BV or management makes it official.

Thing is with Papelbon, he clearly got off on the adrenaline rush of closing and the Sox had a clear need for a closer at the time (they certainly seemed to be returning to the whole "bullpen by committtee" approach based on their bullpen additions that winter).

Bard doesn't seem to have that same adrenaline-junky mentality, and unlike 2007, the Red Sox went out and got a bonafide, hand-him-the-job closer AND an 8th inning/back-up closer this winter. If Bard were to "save face" and walk away from the rotation, he'd be doing it to reclaim his job of setting up in the seventh and eighth like he's done the last three years. Not really a face-saving move, IMO...at least not on the lines of what Papelbon did. More like a clear step backwards.

#58 Pumpsie


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 04:28 PM

Thing is with Papelbon, he clearly got off on the adrenaline rush of closing and the Sox had a clear need for a closer at the time (they certainly seemed to be returning to the whole "bullpen by committtee" approach based on their bullpen additions that winter).

Bard doesn't seem to have that same adrenaline-junky mentality, and unlike 2007, the Red Sox went out and got a bonafide, hand-him-the-job closer AND an 8th inning/back-up closer this winter. If Bard were to "save face" and walk away from the rotation, he'd be doing it to reclaim his job of setting up in the seventh and eighth like he's done the last three years. Not really a face-saving move, IMO...at least not on the lines of what Papelbon did. More like a clear step backwards.


Bard has also said that he liked the adrenaline rush of coming out of the bullpen. He may need that and starting may not be his cup of tea. It hasn't been so far in his career. So, keeping this door open is the wise thing to do, especially since Aceves and Doubront have looked very capable so far.

Also, I find it laughable that some posters (not you, Red Hawk) who excoriated the front office whenever it appeared it was dictating any situation to Tito are now in the "front office SHOULD dictate what it wants to the field manager" mode. Laughable.

#59 Doctor G

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 04:41 PM

i have a lot more confidence in Aceves ability to get guys out in their second and third ABs against him.. Bard has never had to do this as a major league pitcher. He will get his first chance in the next two weeks and in April if he does start.

#60 nvalvo


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 05:40 PM

Looking at Aceves' (short) track record as a major league starter suggests that *he* may have trouble getting through the order more than once.

1st PAA, .641 in 85 PA.
2nd PAA, .905 in 78 PA.
3rd PAA, .570 in 45 PA.

The usual small sample caveats apply. Clearly he only faces hitters a third time through the order when things are going well.

#61 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 07:41 PM

I think you have to give Bard a legitimate shot at the rotation, meaning actual big league starts, or you'll risk losing him. How can you tell him one minute that he's in the rotation, the next that he's back pitching the 7th inning? If you don't trust him throwing the 1st inning, do you have faith in him with the 8th? Let's see this thing out and not overreact to spring training.

I suspect Bard and Doubront are the 4-5.

#62 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 08:31 PM

I suspect Bard and Doubront are the 4-5.


Bard definitely gets one of the last two rotation spots, but I'm just not so sure about Doubront. Not to say he isn't deserving, or that I wouldn't like to see what he can do. It's just that I don't know that I'm particularly comfortable with Miller as the only LHP in the pen for an extended period.

And has there been any word recently regarding Albers? He (like Morales) has stood out to me as not having seen much time in grapefruit league games.

#63 nvalvo


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 09:17 PM

Bard definitely gets one of the last two rotation spots, but I'm just not so sure about Doubront. Not to say he isn't deserving, or that I wouldn't like to see what he can do. It's just that I don't know that I'm particularly comfortable with Miller as the only LHP in the pen for an extended period.


Doubront has a fairly long track record of even or reverse platoon splits, so, while your concerns about the pen are entirely reasonable, I'm not sure Doubront's the answer there.

#64 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 09:35 PM

Doubront has a fairly long track record of even or reverse platoon splits, so, while your concerns about the pen are entirely reasonable, I'm not sure Doubront's the answer there.


Actually, no -- I like Doubront as an 8th-inning LRL setup guy, and Miller as a LOOGY, so the reverse split is fine by me.

Oh, and because I did some digging to see what was up with Albers (didn't find anything), boston.com extra bases mentioned yesterday that Aceves and Doubront were starting in split-squad games on the same day next week. A few weeks later, that schedule lines up as:

Apr 5 @DET - Lester (4 days rest)
Apr 6
Apr 7 @DET - Beckett (5 days rest)
Apr 8 @DET - Buchholz (5 days rest)
Apr 9 @TOR - Aceves/Doubront (5 days rest)
Apr 10 @TOR - Bard (5 days)
Apr 11 @TOR - Lester (5 days)
Apr 12
Apr 13 v.TBR - Beckett (5 days rest)

Looks like Lester gets Opening Day, Beckett gets the home opener, and Bard is the #5. Good luck (and more importantly, good health) to both Doubront and Aceves!

#65 Pumpsie


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 10:15 PM

Actually, no -- I like Doubront as an 8th-inning LRL setup guy, and Miller as a LOOGY, so the reverse split is fine by me.

Oh, and because I did some digging to see what was up with Albers (didn't find anything), boston.com extra bases mentioned yesterday that Aceves and Doubront were starting in split-squad games on the same day next week. A few weeks later, that schedule lines up as:

Apr 5 @DET - Lester (4 days rest)
Apr 6
Apr 7 @DET - Beckett (5 days rest)
Apr 8 @DET - Buchholz (5 days rest)
Apr 9 @TOR - Aceves/Doubront (5 days rest)
Apr 10 @TOR - Bard (5 days)
Apr 11 @TOR - Lester (5 days)
Apr 12
Apr 13 v.TBR - Beckett (5 days rest)

Looks like Lester gets Opening Day, Beckett gets the home opener, and Bard is the #5. Good luck (and more importantly, good health) to both Doubront and Aceves!


Very clever if this is the way it's set up because if Bard bombs the rest of the way in ST, then either Aceves or Doubront could take his spot in Detroit and pitch on 6 days rest. Looks like they're keeping their options open all the way to April 10th.

#66 E5 Yaz


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 10:42 PM

Edes, guessing on the non-pitchers

Catchers (2): Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kelly Shoppach

Infielders (6): Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Aviles, Kevin Youkilis, Nick Punto.

Outfielders (5): Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Jacoby Ellsbury, Darnell McDonald, Jason Repko.


http://espn.go.com/b...-roster-musings

Edited by E5 Yaz, 18 March 2012 - 10:42 PM.


#67 Pumpsie


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 11:27 PM

The mystery of why Jason Repko is being given all these atbats in ST may have been solved. He's going to be the guy who takes Carl Crawford's roster spot at the beginning of the season. I guess they want him to be as good as he can be by that point, just in case he actually has to be used.

#68 Sprowl


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Posted 18 March 2012 - 11:56 PM

The mystery of why Jason Repko is being given all these atbats in ST may have been solved. He's going to be the guy who takes Carl Crawford's roster spot at the beginning of the season. I guess they want him to be as good as he can be by that point, just in case he actually has to be used.


I have seen Repko play five games now, and I have yet to see him do anything of note on offense or defense. I don't see what he brings to the table except generic AAAA outfielder. I'd rather see the Sox go north with 13 pitchers and 12 position players than spend a roster spot on Repko.

#69 Pumpsie


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 12:34 AM

I have seen Repko play five games now, and I have yet to see him do anything of note on offense or defense. I don't see what he brings to the table except generic AAAA outfielder. I'd rather see the Sox go north with 13 pitchers and 12 position players than spend a roster spot on Repko.


I totally agree with you.

#70 JimBoSox9


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 06:53 AM

I have seen Repko play five games now, and I have yet to see him do anything of note on offense or defense. I don't see what he brings to the table except generic AAAA outfielder. I'd rather see the Sox go north with 13 pitchers and
12 position players than spend a roster spot on Repko.


I expect the plan is for Sweeney and Ross to start in the OF corners, with McDonald as a regular PH if a LOOGY is brought in against Sweeney late in games. If they don't carry a 5th OF, they can't really do that. They can (Aviles to LF, Punto to SS if an injury occurs?), but it becomes riskier. It's not sexy to carry Repko but makes sense from a depth perspective.

#71 Pumpsie


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:32 AM

I expect the plan is for Sweeney and Ross to start in the OF corners, with McDonald as a regular PH if a LOOGY is brought in against Sweeney late in games. If they don't carry a 5th OF, they can't really do that. They can (Aviles to LF, Punto to SS if an injury occurs?), but it becomes riskier. It's not sexy to carry Repko but makes sense from a depth perspective.


I guess they're not really comfortable with Aviles as an outfielder or else they could bring up Iglesias or Ciriaco instead of Repko until Crawford gets back. That certainly would be more fun....assuming Edes is correct.

Edited by Pumpsie, 19 March 2012 - 07:33 AM.


#72 rembrat


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:50 AM

Valentine said Jason Repko can do a lot of things during a baseball game. [Saturday] he executed a perfect relay throw that cut down a runner at the plate. He can bunt and run, hes a very good outfielder. Its good to know we have him if we need him.


http://boston.com/sp...t_with_a_catch/

#73 Plympton91


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 08:14 AM

I have seen Repko play five games now, and I have yet to see him do anything of note on offense or defense. I don't see what he brings to the table except generic AAAA outfielder. I'd rather see the Sox go north with 13 pitchers and 12 position players than spend a roster spot on Repko.


Here's an attempt to find the value: It doesn't matter how few at bats he gets in the 1 week to 1 month it takes Crawford to come back, after which he can be released and no one will care. The alternatives are better off getting AB in Pawtucket, or are worth holding on to rather than losing to waivers a week into the season.

#74 judyb

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 08:17 AM

It's the "most likely to clear waivers but we don't really care if he doesn't" roster spot.

#75 OnWisc


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 08:39 AM

I expect the plan is for Sweeney and Ross to start in the OF corners, with McDonald as a regular PH if a LOOGY is brought in against Sweeney late in games. If they don't carry a 5th OF, they can't really do that. They can (Aviles to LF, Punto to SS if an injury occurs?), but it becomes riskier. It's not sexy to carry Repko but makes sense from a depth perspective.


Makes sense, but based on a comment in the article rembrat linked, Bobby hasn't had a problem rolling the dice in the past without a fallback option.

He did say if Lavarnway was ever the second catcher, he wouldn’t be afraid to use him as a pinch hitter. Some managers are hesitant to use the backup as a pinch hitter in case of an injury to the starter.

Valentine said he often pinch hit Piazza on days he wasn’t catching in big situations, throwing caution to the wind to win the game at that moment.


http://boston.com/sp...t_with_a_catch/

Whether it's Repko, Ciriaco, or another arm, hopefully it won't matter for long. I also hope it's not Iglesias (and I'm pretty confident it will not be), as he should be playing every day.

#76 OttoC


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 08:53 AM

From MLB Trade Rumors via bb-ref: The Red Sox have no plans to deal back-up catcher Kelly Shoppach, a source told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. As a free agent signing, Boston would have to get approval from Shoppach in any trade made prior to June 15th.

This probably limits Lavarnway's chances of making the club out of spring training.

#77 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 09:32 AM

To get Repko on the 40-man, who do the Sox DFA? The 40-man's full, with Jenks and Lackey already on the 60-day DL.

My guess is Exposito, though Tejeda is another possibility. Both have been lapped twice at their position, IMO. Ciriaco and St. Pierre as AAA defensive backups, along with Lavarnway and Coyle as up-and-coming batters at the position, probably combine to make both expendable to waiver claims.

Well, I suppose if the Sox start the year with Padilla on the MLB club, then it's good there are two likely options.

#78 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 09:35 AM

One of those guys (Exposito or Tejeda) to the Cubs, perhaps?

#79 OnWisc


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 10:02 AM

One of those guys (Exposito or Tejeda) to the Cubs, perhaps?


That was my reaction as well. And if those guys are on the 'list' that Theo has to choose from, and one gets taken, then there's a spot open regardless of whether Repko warrants it or not.

But in the situation where the final piece of the Theo comp doesn't come off the 40-man, I don't necessarily see the argument that the security provided by Repko-caliber depth is worth passing on even the marginal upside offered by any of the DFA candidates. I haven't seen him much this spring, but based on his career numbers, seems like a "break-glass in case of in-game injury when the 4th OF has already pinch hit type". With the most optimal scenario that he won't ever have to set foot on the field before CC returns. Couldn't Lin offer pretty much the same thing?

#80 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 10:20 AM

That was my reaction as well. And if those guys are on the 'list' that Theo has to choose from, and one gets taken, then there's a spot open regardless of whether Repko warrants it or not.

But in the situation where the final piece of the Theo comp doesn't come off the 40-man, I don't necessarily see the argument that the security provided by Repko-caliber depth is worth passing on even the marginal upside offered by any of the DFA candidates. I haven't seen him much this spring, but based on his career numbers, seems like a "break-glass in case of in-game injury when the 4th OF has already pinch hit type". With the most optimal scenario that he won't ever have to set foot on the field before CC returns. Couldn't Lin offer pretty much the same thing?


Lin could offer the same thing, which is why I had him in my original list of the 25 to break camp (mere hours before he was optioned to Pawtucket). I think the organization must still feel he'd be better served getting daily spring training at-bats as the PawSox starting CF, rather than riding pine until Crawford's ready.

Repko, on the other hand, is thoroughly fungible. It's the same reason I think Justin Thomas might get the call over Tazawa for the last bullpen spot, should Doubront earn SP4 honors over Aceves.

#81 trekfan55


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 10:33 AM

To get Repko on the 40-man, who do the Sox DFA? The 40-man's full, with Jenks and Lackey already on the 60-day DL.

My guess is Exposito, though Tejeda is another possibility. Both have been lapped twice at their position, IMO. Ciriaco and St. Pierre as AAA defensive backups, along with Lavarnway and Coyle as up-and-coming batters at the position, probably combine to make both expendable to waiver claims.

Well, I suppose if the Sox start the year with Padilla on the MLB club, then it's good there are two likely options.


Both Rich Hill and DiceK are on the 40 man, I guess either or both can be placed on the 60 day DL.

Edit: Maybe Kalish can also be moved to the 60 day DL?

Edited by trekfan55, 19 March 2012 - 10:36 AM.


#82 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 10:50 AM

Both Rich Hill and DiceK are on the 40 man, I guess either or both can be placed on the 60 day DL.

Edit: Maybe Kalish can also be moved to the 60 day DL?


I'm pretty sure that transferring Hill or Matsuzaka to the 60-day would mean that that either would only be eligible to be activated on June 4. Not terrible, but both are already throwing off the mound in their bullpen sessions and could potentially come back earlier. And especially Hill, as a LOOGY with a high K/BB rate, would probably be welcomed back as early as possible.

Kalish is a possibility, though. Haven't heard anything about his recovery timetable...

#83 trekfan55


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 11:38 AM

There is a possibility that they might activate Hill sooner than June 4th (although quite remote). But I don't think DiceK will pitch for the Red Sox before June 4th. As I understand it, he can still make rehab starts in AAA while on the 60 day DL if he needs (and can) right?

#84 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 11:47 AM

There is a possibility that they might activate Hill sooner than June 4th (although quite remote). But I don't think DiceK will pitch for the Red Sox before June 4th. As I understand it, he can still make rehab starts in AAA while on the 60 day DL if he needs (and can) right?

Valentine was quoted today as saying Hill might pitch in a game before the team breaks camp (per @ScottLauber), so I'd guess it's almost certain they expect him to be ready to go before June 4. DiceK threw live BP this morning (per @JennyDell), so his timetable might not be that far behind Hill's. They may not want to lock either guy into the 60-DL at this point.

#85 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 19 March 2012 - 12:02 PM

And, right on cue, Kalish gets a mention in today's Glob.

With Kalish swinging again and gearing up for baseball activities, I certainly wouldn't want to lock him into an 10-week vacation to XST. If he needed it, then sure. But if he can get back on track and into games earlier, then all the better.

I mean, hopefully the Sox outfield will stay healthy after Crawford comes back, but I'm sure the Sox would like to have a starter-quality OF option in Pawtucket. I'd much rather Cherington dump Exposito or Tejeda.

#86 JakeRae


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 12:49 AM

To get Repko on the 40-man, who do the Sox DFA? The 40-man's full, with Jenks and Lackey already on the 60-day DL.

My guess is Exposito, though Tejeda is another possibility. Both have been lapped twice at their position, IMO. Ciriaco and St. Pierre as AAA defensive backups, along with Lavarnway and Coyle as up-and-coming batters at the position, probably combine to make both expendable to waiver claims.

Well, I suppose if the Sox start the year with Padilla on the MLB club, then it's good there are two likely options.

Neither player has been "lapped".

First, St. Pierre is a 31 year old defense first catcher who has spent his career as an organizational player in Detroit and has a total of 9 MLB at bats. He hit .207/.257/.284 last year, at age 31, in his 5th season in AAA. Lavarnway still may or may not be good enough defensively to log real time as a MLB catcher. Exposito remains the only MLB ready player in the system who is definitely a catcher. He isn't particularly exciting, but he is likely at least a replacement level player, something that certainly cannot be said for St. Pierre and gives him value as roster depth. He is not close to expendable.

Second, Ciriaco has never shown real offensive ability and his surprising Spring should not obscure the fact that he is another guy who is really just an organizational player. Unlike St. Pierre, who is a AA/AAA lifer, Ciriaco has the defensive ability to be a AAAA player. Coyle, while an exciting prospect, is still in the low minors. Tejeda is a high ceiling 22 year old who is going to be starting the season repeating AA. He has a very high offensive ceiling and is not the sort of player you cut to make room for a guy who might not be in the organization 2 months from now. A year ago, Tejeda was a top 10 prospect. Right now, he is ranked right around 20 in a deep system.

Suggesting either of these players as likely cuts or PTBNL's in the Theo compensation is ridiculous. The likely solutions to the roster quandary is that one of the 13 out of options (or guaranteed to be on the 25-man) pitchers will get DFA'd and/or traded during roster crunch time. If they go with 11 pitchers, that might end up being 2. (If Tazawa, Mortensen, or Padilla earn roster spots, that forces extra cuts which means that it isn't likely that any of them do.) Someone out of Doubront/Bowden/Miller/Morales/Albers is probably not going to be around by opening day.

#87 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 08:29 AM

Neither player has been "lapped".

First, St. Pierre is a 31 year old defense first catcher who has spent his career as an organizational player in Detroit and has a total of 9 MLB at bats. He hit .207/.257/.284 last year, at age 31, in his 5th season in AAA. Lavarnway still may or may not be good enough defensively to log real time as a MLB catcher. Exposito remains the only MLB ready player in the system who is definitely a catcher. He isn't particularly exciting, but he is likely at least a replacement level player, something that certainly cannot be said for St. Pierre and gives him value as roster depth. He is not close to expendable.

Second, Ciriaco has never shown real offensive ability and his surprising Spring should not obscure the fact that he is another guy who is really just an organizational player. Unlike St. Pierre, who is a AA/AAA lifer, Ciriaco has the defensive ability to be a AAAA player. Coyle, while an exciting prospect, is still in the low minors. Tejeda is a high ceiling 22 year old who is going to be starting the season repeating AA. He has a very high offensive ceiling and is not the sort of player you cut to make room for a guy who might not be in the organization 2 months from now. A year ago, Tejeda was a top 10 prospect. Right now, he is ranked right around 20 in a deep system.

Suggesting either of these players as likely cuts or PTBNL's in the Theo compensation is ridiculous. The likely solutions to the roster quandary is that one of the 13 out of options (or guaranteed to be on the 25-man) pitchers will get DFA'd and/or traded during roster crunch time. If they go with 11 pitchers, that might end up being 2. (If Tazawa, Mortensen, or Padilla earn roster spots, that forces extra cuts which means that it isn't likely that any of them do.) Someone out of Doubront/Bowden/Miller/Morales/Albers is probably not going to be around by opening day.


You obviously have no idea what you're talking about.

First, there are not "13 out-of-options (or guaranteed to be on the 25-man) pitchers" on the Sox right now. There are either 12 or 14, depending how you count: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Aceves, Doubront, Bailey, Melancon, Albers, Bowden, Miller, and Morales make 12. Conveniently, there is room for 12 pitchers on a modern-day MLB pitching staff. Yes, two of those will likely get bumped off the staff when Hill and Matsuzaka are ready to come back, but those decisions are not for today.

Second, putting Tazawa or Mortensen on the MLB roster would not force extra cuts in the 40-man roster. Because they are both already on there. But not only that, bringing either one along to Detroit wouldn't even cause there to be cuts in the 25-man, because Morales has just started throwing and is highly unlikely to be ready to break camp with the Sox. Padilla is the only one of the three to need a roster move.

Third, to DFA a MLB-ready pitcher, in order to keep a placeholder like Repko on the roster, is what's ridiculous. Hell, I'd rather the Sox break camp with 24 players than that. No one could predict just how well Albers would throw during the first half of last season, but he had a track record of being able to get MLB hitters to grind out wormburners. No one could predict just how effective Hill would be as a LOOGY down the stretch in 2010, but he threw a pretty curve and had some earlier success in his career. No one could predict how unhittable Bard would be against MLB hitters in 2009, but he had high velocity and a good minor-league track record.

This bullpen is chock-full of guys with similar question marks. Some, like 2011 Albers, may turn out to be flashes in the pan. Some, like 2009 Bard, may herald good things to come. Some, like Dennys Reyes, may end up as chum in the water. But the way to land a fish is to not cut bait too soon.

Tejeda and Exposito have had significant time to prove themselves. Tejeda has five years pro experience, is a career .696 OPS hitter across all levels, and has never maintained an OBP over .350 at any stop. Exposito has six years pro expeerience, is a career .745 OPS hitter across all levels, and has steadily declining production since Lancaster. And neither one ever enjoyed a stellar defensive reputation like that of Iglesias, Middlebrooks, or Federowicz.

Frankly, I don't think I give up on prospects too easily, and I don't think I'm giving up on these two...as both are relatively young. But the probability of either one being truly MLB-ready -- within their respective two remaining option years -- is quite low. Too low for me to choose either over an equally-or-more projectable bullpen arm ready to contribute now.

#88 twothousandone

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Posted 20 March 2012 - 08:50 AM

Without wading deeply into the 40-man, 25-man debate, I was intrigued by the Tejada debate. Liberally interpreting it as a .700 OPS, but with half of it from OBP, I'm wondered if he just might be one of those guys who can draw a walk, or find another way to get on base, and thus if he can do other things (sac bunt, run the bases, pick up ground balls) he has value, especailly in the perceived Bobby V world.

Upon checking, of course, his lone year approaching .350 OBP (it was .344) was in high-A two years ago, where he batted .307 AND slugged .455. Which, of course, is how one becomes a prospect. He followed that with some decent spring stats a year ago, and then. . .

As Pauley suggests, he didn't do himself any favors, with an OBP of .300, and he's batted poorly this spring. Can he replace Punto in two years? Perhaps. And that may be reason enough to keep him around. But if he has to go, I don't see anyone with the RedSox spending a lot of time worrying.

#89 Plympton91


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 09:54 AM

Valentine was quoted today as saying Hill might pitch in a game before the team breaks camp (per @ScottLauber), so I'd guess it's almost certain they expect him to be ready to go before June 4. DiceK threw live BP this morning (per @JennyDell), so his timetable might not be that far behind Hill's. They may not want to lock either guy into the 60-DL at this point.


I'm pretty sure that both of them could be put on the 60-day retroactive to mid-March (the day Lackey was put on), and then they would be eligible for a 30-day rehab assignment in the second half of that period. Making the move retroactively puts the timetable at mid-May, which seems very reasonable for Matsuzaka and also perhaps in the organization's best interest for Hill.

Barring the 60-day option, Clayton Mortensen would almost surely clear waivers if he were outrighted. He has multiple failures on the major league level already.

#90 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 10:00 AM

Barring the 60-day option, Clayton Mortensen would almost surely clear waivers if he were outrighted. He has multiple failures on the major league level already.


58 IP with the Rockies last year, at a 3.86 ERA hardly screams failure.

#91 OnWisc


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 10:13 AM

Regardless of your school of thought on the relative value of Tejada/Exposito vs the chorus line of relievers, it still seems to me that making moves with either isn't something that Jason Repko's presence for (hopefully just) a few weeks warrants. It's also hard to see how having Lin spend (hopefully just) a few weeks on the bench before heading to Pawtucket would disrupt his development to the point that it warrants having to DFA someone on the 40-man. Which is why, if Edes is correct on Repko, I'm starting to think it'll be by virtue of a 60-day DL move (Daisuke or maybe Kalish?). If Padilla also makes it, then you'll see a pitcher DFA'd (I'd think Bowden/Albers if Doubront ends up in the rotation, perhaps Miller/Morales if Aceves ends up starting). Then probably another lefty when Hill returns.

#92 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 10:14 AM

58 IP with the Rockies last year, at a 3.86 ERA hardly screams failure.


No, but when that 3.86 ERA is accompanied by extremely dicey peripherals (5.34 FIP, 1.25 K/BB, etc.), it does at least whisper luck.

#93 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 20 March 2012 - 10:38 AM

No, but when that 3.86 ERA is accompanied by extremely dicey peripherals (5.34 FIP, 1.25 K/BB, etc.), it does at least whisper luck.


Certainly, but to suggest he failed at the big league level seems false. His predicted performance based on his peripherals was poor; his true performance was not.

#94 SoxScout


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:28 PM

Bobby freakin loves spring stats. Not only is McDonald making the team....

“He’s a hitting machine. Just a flat-out hitting machine. What’s he hitting, .700?” wondered Sox manager Bobby Valentine. “Is it five? Well, I’ve never seen anybody hit that high. That’s why it seems like seven, I guess. He’s swinging, and the ball’s finding holes and jumping off his bat or hitting off of walls. He’s swinging really well.”

For the Red Sox last year, McDonald was chiefly an outfield platoon option who got at-bats against left-handed pitching. This spring, he’s been doing plenty of damage against right-handers as well, having gone 10-for-19 against them.

Valentine suggested that McDonald has shown not only that he deserves a place on the Red Sox roster again, but also that he is making a case for an expanded role.

“He hasn’t hit much against left-handed pitching down here and he’s hitting .500. I think he knows there’s a potential Opening Day… There’s some spots, some room,” said Valentine. “He wasn’t happy with last year. He’s proven that he belongs on this team. I like everything I see.”


http://fullcount.wee...s-on-this-team/

#95 rembrat


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:31 PM

SABR guy, my ass.

#96 MalzoneExpress


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:36 PM

SABR guy, my ass.


Just because he talks to the press in ways that Joe from Burger King will understand doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't a SABR guy. D-Mac was going to make the team out of camp anyway. Blowing sunshine his way to keep him happy and motivated is okay by me. That being said, your ass may be right.

#97 Al Zarilla


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:37 PM

Bobby freakin loves spring stats. Not only is McDonald making the team....



http://fullcount.wee...s-on-this-team/

Ellsbury's been pretty quiet this spring. He better watch his dreamboat ass. :astonished:

#98 Super Nomario


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:37 PM

SABR guy, my ass.

Who's the SABR-friendly option, Ryan Sweeney? Cody Ross?

#99 rembrat


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Posted 23 March 2012 - 04:51 PM

Just because he talks to the press in ways that Joe from Burger King will understand doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't a SABR guy. D-Mac was going to make the team out of camp anyway. Blowing sunshine his way to keep him happy and motivated is okay by me. That being said, your ass may be right.


So far he has suggested Bard might not be a starter because of some walks in ST and that Mac is more than a LHP masher because of some hits in ST. The guy that was sold to us as a super smart, stat savvy field manager is showing EV levels of SSS understanding.

Edited by rembrat, 23 March 2012 - 04:51 PM.


#100 The Boomer

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 05:12 PM

So far he has suggested Bard might not be a starter because of some walks in ST and that Mac is more than a LHP masher because of some hits in ST. The guy that was sold to us as a super smart, stat savvy field manager is showing EV levels of SSS understanding.


None of those statements mean anything at face value. Bard has a huge upside and needed a kick in the butt to motivate him to get to that level and not be returned to the bullpen. McDonald is a marginal reserve who, because he will end up right back on the bench where he spent most of his time last season, needed a different kind of encouragement to feel secure about his performance. His spring performance does mean something (sss notwithstanding) because he was playing just to make the roster. McD would have been released if he didn't prove his worth. Bard might only be sent back to the bullpen to restore his confidence and to maximize his contribution in a role where he already proved himself.