235 replies to this topic

[lexrageorge]

With just under 3 weeks to go in Spring Training, it's time to start to prematurely project the final 25 on Opening Day. Of course, being on the Opening Day roster doesn't mean spending a whole season with the big club, but it's usually around this time that the candidates final roster spots start becoming more clear. At the very least, gives us something to discuss during a slow sports period (NCAA hoops tourney aside).

Position players first.

Starters: Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Youkilis, Sweeney, Ross, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Ortiz.

Bench: Shoppach, Punto, McDonald, Lavarnway

DL: Crawford, Kalish

Minors: Iglesias, Exposito, Middlebrooks, Anderson, Lin, Ciriaco, all others

Comments: The only real "question" among the regulars was whether Aviles would win the starting nod at SS, and Cafardo's bleatings to the contrary, it appears he has. Sweeney has shown some early power, and Ross has looked pretty good as well, so the OF should be at least be in OK shape until Crawford comes back (which will likely be late April). McDonald has earned a roster spot with a solid spring, and will probably push both Sweeney and Ross for starts, so the designation of starter vs. bench for the outfielders after Ellsbury is a bit arbitrary. The team can certainly live with 4 outfielders for the first 2 weeks of the season; non-roster invitees Linares and Spears aren't going to challenge for a roster spot at this stage.

The most difficult decision will be the final bench spot with Crawford on the DL. While I can't see the Sox keeping 3 catchers normally, I put Lavarnway out there as he could be useful as a bench bat for the first 2 weeks, and will also get a chance to work with Gary Tuck. But he's unlikely to last past Crawford's return unless something happens to Shoppach or Salty. This decision will get revisited if Ciriaco continues to rake the ball and the team decides to go with an extra utility infielder to start the season; sorry, Punto's not going anywhere just yet. After all, Cafardo will need to have some comfort after Iglesias is sent down.

Pitchers:

Starters (1 - 5): Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Padilla

Relievers: Bailey, Melancon, Aceves, Doubront, Bowden, Morales, Albers

DL/Extended Spring: Miller, Cook, Lackey (season over), Hill, Dice-K

Minors/released: Silva, Tazawa, Atchison, Duckworth, Pena, Ohlendorf, all others

Comments: The first 3 starting and first 3 relief slots are locked in, and Bard would really need to have a whole series of blowups to lose the 4th starter's job at this point. Silva's untimely injury cost him a slot, Cook just won't get enough innings in, and Tazawa could use some time in AAA while coming back from TJ surgery. If Miller gets healthy and looks strong, there's a chance he could compete still with Padilla for the 5th starter, but Padilla has looked good in 2 of 3 outings so far this spring, and so Miller is essentially 2 bad outings from being put on waivers. If Doubront continues to have a decent spring, he may make Miller expendable anyway. Bowden gets to prove one more time that he's more than a AAAA pitcher. The bubble guys are Morales and Albers, and one will likely go if Cook is able to compete for a spot in the pen in April.

[JimBoSox9]

Man, the offense really projects to be terrible this year (Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz aside).

[Laschelle Tarver]

I agree with most of that, although I think Doubront will be the fifth starter with Padilla working out of the pen. Maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part.

Edited by Laschelle Tarver, 16 March 2012 - 09:05 AM.

[rembrat]

Padilla is going really have to blow it out of the water to win a job he isn't even in the running for so I think the 5th spot goes to Doubront or Aceves. Guys like Albers and Atchinson can make it through waivers so I don't think it makes sense to break camp with them.

I see Tazawa making the club.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I think at this point barring a drastic change in reults that Doubront is the number 5 starter and Padilla will start in the pen... I think that is the feeling as of today. Everything being quoted and the way both pitchers are being used points to this.. If they feel the bullpen can stand the loss of Aceves then I think he's the 5th starter over Doubront, but I personnaly think Aceves starts in the pen

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Man, the offense really projects to be terrible this year (Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz aside).

Was this statement intended as sarcasm? Because the irony of it is just fabulous.

[Al Zarilla]

Man, the offense really projects to be terrible this year (Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz aside).

I wouldn't sell Cody Ross short. He has a career OPS of .779 and last year sucked for him due to injuries. He's mostly a pull hitter, so he could do good damage at Fenway. He's only 31. Also, what Buzzkill said.

[maufman]

I think Ciriaco is a better pick than Lavarnway for that last bench spot.

Lavarnway is one of the Sox' better prospects. The club won't want him to ride the pine for a few weeks to start the season, and it's hard to see where he's going to get ABs unless there are additional injuries between now and Opening Day. Ciriaco, on the other hand, is a 4-A guy (to be kind); no one cares about his development.

Also, Ciriaco has seen spot duty in the OF, and therefore provides more defensive versatility on a team that will only be carrying four OFs. He's also fast enough to be a useful pinch runner.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Was this statement intended as sarcasm? Because the irony of it is just fabulous.

I agree with this, how can you say the Offense projects to be terrible aside from the top 5 hitters? If you take away the top 5 on any team the offense would look bad. Not to mention , Ross looks like he should be perfect for Fenway, Salty should hit better than last season and Aviles will rank favorably against other SS at the plate.

Sweeney is an injury replacement until Crawford gets back and the rest is bench (all who in the right sitauations can hit)

[brs3]

Is Youk the backup 1B? Lars seems like a better choice over a 3rd catcher, if only for the first few weeks.

[Laschelle Tarver]

I think we're going to like both Sweeney and Ross as complementary pieces at the bottom of the line up. Against right handed pitching, Sweeney in particular has shown at least an ability to get on base his entire career. Hopefully the ballpark can have a positive impact on some of his power numbers (doubles) as well.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The offense projects to once again be one of the best in the league. Five excellent hitters and four average is pretty great. It won't happen, but it's certainly possible for each player to have an OPS+ of 100 or better, they are all capable of it.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Is Youk the backup 1B? Lars seems like a better choice over a 3rd catcher, if only for the first few weeks.

I agree with this, and it also gives them more time to try to shop him before being forced to put him on waivers.

[mabrowndog]

I think the last bench spot goes to a player who provides some versatility. I just can't see it being Lars or a third catcher. If it isn't Ciriaco, who's been pretty impressive early on, I like Nate Spears for that role until either Crawford or Kalish returns.

Edited by mabrowndog, 16 March 2012 - 10:00 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The offense projects to once again be one of the best in the league. Five excellent hitters and four average is pretty great. It won't happen, but it's certainly possible for each player to have an OPS+ of 100 or better, they are all capable of it.

Yeah, when Crawford returns every one of the Sox starters can be expected to provide over 100 OPS+ production. That's pretty awesome. Throw in the potential of at least three >130 OPS+ hitters, and this should be another very special offensive team.

OPS by Position

POSITION	CAREER OPS+	2012 OPS+
DH	136	154
C	86	95
1B	140	155
2B	117	135
3B	127	123
SS	98	107 (BOS)
LF	105	85
CF	109	146
RF	105	105

[Joshv02]

Good start. I don't think there are too many decision points.


Morales: I think he starts on the DL. He could certainly make the team if he was needed, but there is no need to push things that early and it helps to keep players around for another week or two while Morales get some extended ST throwing in.

Lavarnway: I don't think he makes a good bench option with that lineup. He isn't an OFer, and so he is either the backup C or a back up at a position that doesn't really need a backup (1B/DH) on the bench (rather than AAA). As their 40 man sits right now, I think Lin probably makes the opening roster, supplanted by Crawford, with Kalish moving ahead of him on the depth chart at some point in the summer. They could make some trades to free up a 40 man spot, or move Matsuzaka/Hill to the 60 man DL, all to bring up someone like Spears. But, if it is a short time only, they may want to keep that option for a future date. If there is another need, they can always make a move.

[maufman]

I agree with this, and it also gives them more time to try to shop him before being forced to put him on waivers.

Totally forgot Lars is out of options. Yeah, this is the most likely scenario.

Was surprised to see that for all his versatility, Nick Punto has never played first base as a professional.

Edit: Not sure why several folks here thought Lars was out of options, but shame on me for being a lemming and not checking my facts. I'll stick with my Ciriaco prediction -- Youk will back up 1B with Punto at 3B if Gonzo misses a couple games early for some reason.

Edited by maufman, 16 March 2012 - 02:52 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Totally forgot Lars is out of options. Yeah, this is the most likely scenario.

I think it's more likely he's traded for some younger prospect-du-jour in the final days of camp. How does keeping him on the 25-man, where he provides no versatility and will get only minimal playing time and scant PAs, help the club or enhance his trade value?

EDIT - Besides, is he really out of options? He's been called up twice (2010 and 2011) so doesn't he have one more?

Edited by mabrowndog, 16 March 2012 - 10:27 AM.

[Bigpupp]

Totally forgot Lars is out of options. Yeah, this is the most likely scenario.

Lars isn't out of options. The players who are out of options can be found here.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

FWIW -- Here's my breakdown

13 Hitters:
(C ) = Saltalamacchia, Shoppach
(IF) = Gonzalez, Pedroia, Youkilis, Aviles, Ortiz, Punto,
(OF)= Ellsbury, Ross, Sweeney, McDonald, Lin

DL = Crawford

12 Pitchers:
(SP)= Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Aceves
(RP)= Bailey, Melancon, Doubront, Padilla, Miller, Albers, Bowden

DL = Morales (has he pitched in a game yet?)

[JimBoSox9]

At the very least, gives us something to discuss during a slow sports period (NCAA hoops tourney aside).

Man, the offense really projects to be terrible this year (Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz aside).

Was this statement intended as sarcasm? Because the irony of it is just fabulous.

Double-targeted at the OP brushing off the Dance, and the general lament that Nick Punto et al will irreversibly cripple the offense.

I agree with this, how can you say the Offense projects to be terrible aside from the top 5 hitters? If you take away the top 5 on any team the offense would look bad

Awesome point, dude!

[mabrowndog]

DL = Morales (has he pitched in a game yet?)

Nope.

Sox ST pitching stats
Sox ST batting stats

[Savin Hillbilly]

Lars isn't out of options.

Sorry, I don't know how I got that idea into my head. Mea culpa.

[Laser Show]

This is how I see it:

Starters: Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Youkilis, Sweeney, Ross, Ellsbury, Salty, Ortiz.

Bench: Shoppach, Punto, McDonald, Ciriaco

DL: Crawford, Kalish

The last bench spot is tough. I don't see Lavarnway getting it; he should be playing everyday in Pawtucket. I think Ciriaco is the front runner, although Lars is making an interesting case, especially with him getting some work in the outfield. It'd be a good opportunity to boost his trade value too.

SP: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Aceves/Doubront

RP: Bailey, Melancon, Aceves/Doubront, Padilla, Bowden, Albers, Tazawa

DL: Morales, Miller, Cook, Hill, Dice-K

If Miller's healthy, he easily gets a spot, probably Tazawa's. I think Doubront and Aceves are basically a toss-up for the fifth starter right now and I don't think we could go wrong either way.

[Joshv02]

EDIT - Besides, is he really out of options? He's been called up twice (2010 and 2011) so doesn't he have one more?

He should have two. He was called up, but not optioned, in 2010. He was optioned in 2011. He'll be optioned in 2012, leaving next year as his final option year.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

With the start of minor league spring training games this weekend, the Sox are already making roster moves. Probably safe to assume these guys won't make the 25-man Opening Day roster. Per @brianmacp:

Will Middlebrooks, Oscar Tejeda, Drake Britton and Che-Hsuan Lin have been optioned to the minor leagues.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 16 March 2012 - 11:32 AM.

[SoxScout]

ScottLauber: Also, RHPs Tony Pena Jr., Chorye Spoone and Alex Wilson and OF Juan Carlos Linares reassigned to minor league camp

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The biggest question, to me, involves how many roster moves the Sox feel they can make without losing trade or injury-replacement assets.

The only clear one I can see to generate a 40-man roster spot involves throwing Kalish onto the 60-day DL in order to get Padilla on board. An Exposito DFA at the end of camp seems the next most likely, if the Sox have to add someone like Ciriaco.

Losing a player like Anderson or Bowden for nothing -- in order to keep a noodle bat as 25th man -- seems far too cognate a situation to losing Craig Breslow in order to keep Kevin Cash back in 2008.

[lexrageorge]

There's no danger of the Sox losing Anderson. He has options remaining.

Right now only Lackey and Jenks are on the 60-day, so there's still space for Hill, Dice-K, and perhaps Kalish.

Bowden is a bit tricky, as there's likely someone the Sox will need to expose to waivers among Miller, Doubront, Padilla, Albers, Morales, Cook, and Bowden. It seems as if the Sox should be able to do something with Bowden, but it is incumbent on his continuing to be decent this spring.

[trekfan55]

Isn't Padilla signed to a minor league contract? If so, he can be sent to AAA (until the May 1st opt out date at least) right?

[OCD SS]

Isn't Padilla signed to a minor league contract? If so, he can be sent to AAA (until the May 1st opt out date at least) right?

I believe so.

Like every year, I have a hard time seeing any player who can be easily stashed in the minor leagues (options, etc) make the MLB club to start. The Sox are going to hold on to control of as many guys as they can for as long as they can as a hedge against injuries.

[Rasputin]

I believe so.

Like every year, I have a hard time seeing any player who can be easily stashed in the minor leagues (options, etc) make the MLB club to start. The Sox are going to hold on to control of as many guys as they can for as long as they can as a hedge against injuries.

Cook, Ohlendorf, Padilla, Duckworth...they're all minor league non roster invites.

My guess is that means we start with Miller in the pen and Doubront in the rotation until Miller shits the bed then we'll see Padilla or whomever up.

[trekfan55]

Cook, Ohlendorf, Padilla, Duckworth...they're all minor league non roster invites.

My guess is that means we start with Miller in the pen and Doubront in the rotation until Miller shits the bed then we'll see Padilla or whomever up.

Yes. IMO unless Miller or Felix shit the bed in ST or Padilla really shines, that's a good guess of what might happen. Then as May 1st approaches we'll see some choices made.

[nvalvo]

Talk today of Miller scrapping his windup really makes it sound like he's being moved to the bullpen track.

[The Boomer]

Talk today of Miller scrapping his windup really makes it sound like he's being moved to the bullpen track.

This scenario mentioned in Rotoworld might make sense:


Two scouts told Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com that they believe moving Daniel Bard to the rotation is a mistake. "Bard should be in the pen,'' the source said. "He's a thrower, not a pitcher. And he's had success in the pen. I'd have made him the closer once (Jonathan) Papelbon left.'' Another scout added that the Red Sox are committed to Bard in the rotation but only for ''maybe half a year.'' Both scouts see Felix Doubront winning the fifth spot in the rotation, with Alfredo Aceves being used in the bullpen.


Doubront #4 and Padilla as #5 seems to have more logic to it though Aceves has made a case to be in the rotation. With Doubront and Padilla/Aceves filling out the rotation, a bullpen with Bard, Aceves/Padilla, Miller and Bowden (together with Bailey and Melancon) seems more promising and deeper than what they had to end last season. Matsuzaka, Cook, Silva, Tazawa, Atchison, Duckworth, Pena, Ohlendorf, etc. also seem like more depth divided between the DL and AAA for later this season.

Edited by The Boomer, 17 March 2012 - 11:37 AM.

[Al Zarilla]

So, the decision to move Bard to the rotation was initiated by Bard's request? Was it decided while Tito was still in charge (for the 2012 season of course)? If so, might Bobby V. give it a shorter leash? Or, maybe it was more GM driven as a function of architecting the team for 2012. But, which GM? Sorry for the tangent here.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So, the decision to move Bard to the rotation was initiated by Bard's request? Was it decided while Tito was still in charge (for the 2012 season of course)? If so, might Bobby V. give it a shorter leash? Or, maybe it was more GM driven as a function of architecting the team for 2012. But, which GM? Sorry for the tangent here.

It was definitely decided after Tito and Theo were out the door. Whether they had input or the topic had been discussed before they left is unknown.

I think Bard told Cherington he wanted to start or close this season, but prefered to start. And considering the market for starters vs relievers, I'd imagine Cherington was fine to go along with Bard as a starter since more potential closers were available than affordable/serviceable starters.

What I refuse to believe at this point is that Bard is at all a question mark for the Opening Day rotation in the eyes of Sox management. If the Red Sox had serious enough doubts that he couldn't do the job, they wouldn't have entered spring training with him in the starting mix...he'd have been their closer from the off. No way are they going to pull the plug after a handful of spring innings. In May, maybe. But not before Opening Day.

[aron7awol]

I will also say it's unlikely that they would move a healthy Bard back to the bullpen even in May. He'd have to look like a right-handed reincarnation of 2011 Andrew Miller out there to get the plug pulled on him before May is over. That early on, you can only go by scouting. I just can't see the Red Sox FO, as savvy as they are, judging him as a starter by a sample that is not large enough to be significantly predictive. Did Jon Lester's September change anyone's expectations for him? I hope not, and Bard's April shouldn't change his expectations either, especially when growing pains are to be expected.

Edited by aron7awol, 17 March 2012 - 04:36 PM.

[Pumpsie]

What I refuse to believe at this point is that Bard is at all a question mark for the Opening Day rotation in the eyes of Sox management. If the Red Sox had serious enough doubts that he couldn't do the job, they wouldn't have entered spring training with him in the starting mix...he'd have been their closer from the off. No way are they going to pull the plug after a handful of spring innings. In May, maybe. But not before Opening Day.

You can believe whatever you want to believe (it's a free country...I think.) But Valentine is on record saying that Bard being part of the rotation "isn't set in concrete." I think if Bard continues to struggle and Aceves, Doubront and Padilla continue to shine, Bard may well find himself in the bullpen to start the season. And, if that is indeed the way the rest of ST plays out, it's the right move. This team needs to get off to a good start.

[rembrat]

I think Bobby is just trying to keep Bard hungry with his comments. Melancon was traded for to eventually replace Bard as the young, cost controlled, setup man waiting in the wings to close. To spend all winter talking about Bard as a starter and to plan your offseason around this move only to kill it before April would be extremely dumb. If he is going to lose his spot, let him lose it in the regular season.

[Pumpsie]

I think that a good rule of thumb is to take people at their word instead of trying to read our own interpretation into it. And I also think that it would be a tremendous mistake to go into the season with someone in the rotation who you think is going to fail at it but you want to be nice to him, or something. He either can do it or he can't. If he can't, that's fine. You replace him in the rotation with someone who'll do a better job. The days of Tito and his over-sensitivity to what everyone else thinks about him, thank goodness, are over. Again, this team needs to get off to a good start and can't be coddling someone who is going to ensure that you lose 1/5 of your games while he figures it out. We're not the Pirates or Royals. This team is thinking championship.

[aron7awol]

You can believe whatever you want to believe (it's a free country...I think.) But Valentine is on record saying that Bard being part of the rotation "isn't set in concrete."

He was asked about Bard being the #4 starter, not whether he was going to be a member of the rotation. I think you are misinterpreting what he said.

Edited by aron7awol, 17 March 2012 - 10:29 PM.

[Pumpsie]

He was asked about Bard being the #4 starter, not whether he was going to be a member of the rotation. I think you are misinterpreting what he said.

Well, the writer got it wrong too because he was talking about whether Bard was going to start or relieve.

[JimBoSox9]

I think that a good rule of thumb is to take people at their word instead of trying to read our own interpretation into it.

You're going to have A LOT of trouble with the Bobby V era.

[Doctor G]

Based on the way they have pitched it should be Doubront and Aceves as 4 and 5. The bullpen would be stronger withe Bard Melancon Bailey and Miller as 7-8-9 inning guys each with strikeout stuff. Bard's value as a guy with strikeout stuff is maximized as a set-up guy or closer more than as a starter.
To me this team's pitching staff looks a lot better this way.

The competition seems to be Bard vs. Aceves, Cook vs. Padilla, and finally Morales vs. Miller.

Edited by Doctor G, 18 March 2012 - 09:45 AM.

[OnWisc]

I think that a good rule of thumb is to take people at their word instead of trying to read our own interpretation into it. And I also think that it would be a tremendous mistake to go into the season with someone in the rotation who you think is going to fail at it but you want to be nice to him, or something. He either can do it or he can't. If he can't, that's fine. You replace him in the rotation with someone who'll do a better job. The days of Tito and his over-sensitivity to what everyone else thinks about him, thank goodness, are over. Again, this team needs to get off to a good start and can't be coddling someone who is going to ensure that you lose 1/5 of your games while he figures it out. We're not the Pirates or Royals. This team is thinking championship.

Beyond taking people at their word, you can also look at their actions. The Melancon and Bailey deals pretty much underscore the concept that Bard to the rotation has been the mindset of the front office the entire offseason. If they were to back off that stance now after a small ST sample, I'd be far more concerned with their abilities than I am with Bard's.

[geoflin]

I see Bard and Doubront being the 4th and 5th starters. Bard has had one bad outing, which was in fact a relief outing with a rain delay during it. Padilla has also had one bad outing, also in relief. Aceves is too valuable in the bullpen for now to be used as a starter. So Padilla goes to the bullpen, ready to start if/when Doubront needs to be replaced in the rotation and for now a long reliever to come in if any of the 5 starters has to leave a game early.
Later in the year changes will be necessary regardless of who begins April in the rotation. Neither Bard, Aceves, or Doubront is likely to be able or to be allowed to throw upwards of 170 innings. So I like Bard to begin the year in the rotation but sometime in August move back to the bullpen to conserve innings, much the same way as Ogando was used last year by Texas. Ogando became a very valuable reliever in the playoffs after starting for over half the year.

[mabrowndog]

Minors/released: Silva, Tazawa, Atchison, Duckworth, Pena, Ohlendorf, all others

Comments: Silva's untimely injury cost him a slot

Yup. They released him yesterday.

[Pumpsie]

You're going to have A LOT of trouble with the Bobby V era.

I don't think so. Bobby V. is supposed to be this outspoken guy who tells it as he sees it and gets into trouble by saying too much. Too talkative rather than too reticent. Can't have it both ways here.

[Pumpsie]

Beyond taking people at their word, you can also look at their actions. The Melancon and Bailey deals pretty much underscore the concept that Bard to the rotation has been the mindset of the front office the entire offseason. If they were to back off that stance now after a small ST sample, I'd be far more concerned with their abilities than I am with Bard's.

I agree that the front office is sold on the concept. I don't agree that Valentine is.