53 replies to this topic

[JimBoSox9]

6PM, CBS. All questions get answered.

Kentucky and Syracuse are locked into the top two #1 seeds. UNC, Duke, Kansas, Mizzou, Ohio St, and Michigan St. are all polishing their resumes for the final two slots, and one way or another that list is almost definitely locked in for the top 8 seeds in the tourney. If UNC wins today, they easily get a #1 seed, and even if they don't, the smart money is betting they get it anyways.

I'm as biased as someone could possibly be, but I don't see how Kansas gets the nod over Mizzou. Very, very close, but the Tigers won the conference tourney, they split the season series, and KU played the harder non-conference schedule but didn't fare all that well in those games (relatively). Both games they played were bitterly close, based on my internet readings this morning it does seem like most national pundits come down on the side of Mizzou being the slightly better team this year.

So, it comes down to Mizzou or the MSU/OSU winner for the final #1 seed. No Big Six conference team has ever won 30 games and NOT gotten a #1 seed (Mizzou is 30-4), but I think the Big 10 winner takes the final slot and it's tough to argue. If Mizzou had beaten KU instead of Baylor last night, or even if they had managed to beat K State at home last week, it would have been them. But their resume is just flawed enough, and the Big 10 has gotten so much respect as a basketball conference this year, that it's going to go in the other direction. As a Tiger fan, I can't tell you how ecstatic I am to be in a position to be disappointed in a #2 seed.

6 hours and 42 minutes away. Post your thoughts here.

[JimBoSox9]

Lunardi just put up his top 8 on ESPN

one seeds
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. UNC
4. Big 10 Winner

two seeds
5. Kansas
6. Missouri
7. Big 10 Loser
8. Duke

That means KU probably gets the STL regional as the top-ranked 2 seed. Yuck.

[RedOctober3829]

Looks like Cuse will get the Boston regional as well. An Elite 8 matchup of Duke/UNC??

[gmogmo]

Looks like Cuse will get the Boston regional as well. An Elite 8 matchup of Duke/UNC??

I'd think they'd try to avoid having UNC/Duke, KU/Missouri, and OSU/MSU in the same regions....although if you went straight S curve, would seem like Kansas and Missouri would be 4th and 5th in some order.

[DukeSox]

Do not want Kentucky. At all.

[JimBoSox9]

Sorry brotha, but that's how I see it playing out:

St. Louis:
1. UNC
2. Kansas

Boston
1. Syracuse
2. MSU/OSU

Phoenix
1. MSU/OSU
2. Missouri

Atlanta
1. Kentucky
2. Duke

[shawnrbu]

How solidly in the field is Xavier? Would the committee lazily slot Xavier somewhere and then simply take them out if the Bonnies win today?

How does Lunardi explain having Drexel OUT for days and suddenly putting them in overnight and removing Miss St? Is he fed inside info?

Edited by shawnrbu, 11 March 2012 - 12:31 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

Lunardi talked about it this morning in SportsCenter. Basically owned up to it as a flip-flop by him, swayed mostly by MissSt's poor non-conference SoS (200-ish) and record against RPI top-50 (3-6).

That's why I like Lunardi. He created a cottage industry for himself just like Kiper did, but he owns up to not having all the answers and doesn't come off as a smarmy know-it-all, despite actually being right more often than most.

[Hendu's Gait]

How does Lunardi explain having Drexel OUT for days and suddenly putting them in overnight and removing Miss St? Is he fed inside info?

DThom's reinstatement


If FSU holds on and MSU wins, I have:

Atlanta: Kentucky -1, Duke -2
Boston: Syracuse -1, Ohio State 2
St. Louis: MO 1, UNC- 2
Phoenix: MSU -1, Kansas -2

Edited by Hendu's Gait, 11 March 2012 - 12:47 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Here's how I see the top 8 teams playing out(assuming Michigan State wins. If OSU wins, flip them).#1 seeds are in order of Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC, and Michigan State right now. If FSU beats UNC and MSU wins, flip them and MSU would play Kansas and UNC gets Mizzou.

Boston
1. Syracuse
2. Duke

St. Louis
1. Kentucky
2. Ohio State

Atlanta
1. North Caolina
2. Kansas

Phoenix
1. Michigan State
2. Missouri

[RedOctober3829]

Wow all the 1 seeds go down this weekend

[JimBoSox9]

By the way...if Duke gets the Atlanta regional with MS/OSU as the #1 seed while Mizzou gets stuck against Kentucky, I may hurt someone.

Now I get to dream for 3 hours that the UNC loss actually changed anything.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 11 March 2012 - 02:14 PM.

[DannyHeep]

And with St Bonneventure in another bubble pops...

[JimBoSox9]

Wow all the 1 seeds go down this weekend

In fact, there are only two conference winners among the consensus top 8. That's gotta be a first.

[bosockboy]

Mizzou is ranked fifth.....blew through their conference tournament...have 30 wins...and all 4 teams ahead of them have lost. I just don't see how they aren't a #1 now.

[Greg29fan]

yep I concur about Missouri. I've said all along that Carolina's record vs. the RPI top 50 should keep them out of being a 1 seed unless they won the ACC Tourney, which obviously they did not do.

[RedOctober3829]

Are you saying that Michigan state and mizzou both should have 1 seeds?

[DannyHeep]

No surprise with the #1

[JimBoSox9]

Aaaand the Tigers don't get a favorable region or seed. Of fucking course. 30 wins and a conference title doesn't get you much these days, I guess.

Edit: I'm going off the school logos overhead, looks like they are paired with Cuse.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 11 March 2012 - 05:06 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Could have a UK UNC final

[Greg29fan]

I'm surprised UNC got it over Missouri. I'll take it, though.

[Hendu's Gait]

Fuck the NCAA for putting Wichita state and VCU together.

[JimBoSox9]

I'm surprised UNC got it over Missouri. I'll take it, though.

You gotta wonder how much the short deadline affected this. It's tough to make last-minute adjustments because of the same-conference rules, especially when you're dealing with a team from a deep conference. Sunday conference championship games are fucking retarded.

[Infield Infidel]

Lunardi talked about it this morning in SportsCenter. Basically owned up to it as a flip-flop by him, swayed mostly by MissSt's poor non-conference SoS (200-ish) and record against RPI top-50 (3-6).

That's why I like Lunardi. He created a cottage industry for himself just like Kiper did, but he owns up to not having all the answers and doesn't come off as a smarmy know-it-all, despite actually being right more often than most.

Depends on what you consider "most"

http://bracketprojec...m/rankings.html

Lunardi is 27th most accurate bracketologist

[Hendu's Gait]

14 seed at larges is the lowest ever, correct?

[Hendu's Gait]

If UVA is a 10 seed, and Iona in, have to figure NC State is going NIT.

[DannyHeep]

Yeah, that is a surprise. I think that NC State kills Iona head to head.

[Dehere]

Aaaand the Tigers don't get a favorable region or seed. Of fucking course. 30 wins and a conference title doesn't get you much these days, I guess.

I love Mizzou's draw. Love it. Pairings seem to imply that the committee ranked them #5 overall. First two games are close to home in Omaha. Three-seed Marquette did not impress me at all when I got to see them in the BET this week. Respect Michigan State but given the alternatives for an Elite 8 matchup I'll take it. Regional final in Phoenix would present no advantage for Mizzou or MSU. Really couldn't have asked for much more.

[Hendu's Gait]

If UVA is a 10 seed, and Iona in, have to figure NC State is going NIT.

Hendu's an idiot

[DannyHeep]

I love Mizzou's draw. Love it. Pairings seem to imply that the committee ranked them #5 overall. First two games are close to home in Omaha. Three-seed Marquette did not impress me at all when I got to see them in the BET this week. Respect Michigan State but given the alternatives for an Elite 8 matchup I'll take it. Regional final in Phoenix would present no advantage for Mizzou or MSU. Really couldn't have asked for much more.

Yeah as a #2 they get Mich State, as the #1 they could have gotten Kansas. I'd take what they got.

[Domer]

Brady Hoke can't wait to get another shot at the Buckeyes this weekend

[Hendu's Gait]

Missouri as an 8, has MSU as the 4 in its region. Nice snake.

[RedOctober3829]

Florida as a 7 is really, really low. They could beat Missouri in the 2nd round.

[Dehere]

Holy shit. The committee chair says that Michigan St was the lowest ranked #1 and Missouri was the lowest ranked #2 and they're in the same region?? How is that fair to anyone?

[RedOctober3829]

Holy shit. The committee chair says that Michigan St was the lowest ranked #1 and Missouri was the lowest ranked #2 and they're in the same region?? How is that fair to anyone?

It's simple. They wanted UK-Duke and UNC-Kansas for TV purposes.

[Hendu's Gait]

TruTv will be revealing the seeds 1-68

[Soxy Brown]

Holy shit. The committee chair says that Michigan St was the lowest ranked #1 and Missouri was the lowest ranked #2 and they're in the same region?? How is that fair to anyone?

He said the decision was based on placing teams closest to their home regions. Maybe I'm wrong here, but haven't there been studies that show that proximity to campus is a greater predictor of tournament success than seed? I recall reading something to that effect.

[Hendu's Gait]

The new guy in charge can't even keep MSU and Michigan straight. 2nd time in half an hour.

[RedOctober3829]

Calipari on ESPN: "I just walked in the door. Are we playing in Dayton?"

[Infield Infidel]

Iona over Drexel, WTF?

[Hendu's Gait]

Iona over Drexel, WTF?

out of conference SOS

(Purdue, MD, LIU, St. Joes, etc.)

Edited by Hendu's Gait, 11 March 2012 - 07:36 PM.

[bosockboy]

I love Mizzou's draw. Love it. Pairings seem to imply that the committee ranked them #5 overall. First two games are close to home in Omaha. Three-seed Marquette did not impress me at all when I got to see them in the BET this week. Respect Michigan State but given the alternatives for an Elite 8 matchup I'll take it. Regional final in Phoenix would present no advantage for Mizzou or MSU. Really couldn't have asked for much more.

Quick bracket note: Marquette will likely get Murray St. in round 2 in Louisville. Home game for Murray. They are taking down Marquette. Nice boost for Mizzou.

[Gdiguy]

So I have a (possibly stupid) question that I've wondered over the past couple years - is there any real reasoning of how it's possible to have a play-in game for a #12 seed? I know the seeding numbers are in reality basically pseudo-random below a certain point, but assuming that they're a legitimate quality of team score then why would you have two teams in a play-in for a 12 seed but then have single teams seeded 13/14/15?

[Dan Murfman]

They expanded the tournament last year from 65 teams to 68 teams. So there are 4 "play in games". Instead of making all the 16 seeds play in these games they made it that the 4 lowest teams in the whole tournament would play for 2 spots. And then the 4 lowest at large teams would play for 2 spots. So the lowest 4 at large teams are BYU/Iona and USF/Cal. BYU and Iona winner becomes a 14 seed and USF/Cal winner becomes a 12 seed. The other 14 and 13 seeds are automatic qualifiers so they didn't have to play in these games.

[SuperManny]

They have the last few at large teams play against each other. It used to only be the 16 seeds that were in the play-in game when it was 65 teams but they changed it when it expanded to 68.

Edited by SuperManny, 11 March 2012 - 08:57 PM.

[Gdiguy]

They expanded the tournament last year from 65 teams to 68 teams. So there are 4 "play in games". Instead of making all the 16 seeds play in these games they made it that the 4 lowest teams in the whole tournament would play for 2 spots. And then the 4 lowest at large teams would play for 2 spots. So the lowest 4 at large teams are BYU/Iona and USF/Cal. BYU and Iona winner becomes a 14 seed and USF/Cal winner becomes a 12 seed. The other 14 and 13 seeds are automatic qualifiers so they didn't have to play in these games.

Ah, I see, thanks! So it's basically that Cal/USF are believed to in reality be better teams than the other 13/14 seeds, but everyone else higher-ranked is automatically qualified and thus can't be in a play-in game?

Edited by Gdiguy, 11 March 2012 - 09:43 PM.

[Infield Infidel]

I don't get why #7 Gonzaga is in Pittsburgh to play #10 WVU and #7 Florida is in Omaha. Everyone knows there's a lack of good teams out west, and then where there is one, they move them to play basically a road game. They could just switch them. The only team from the WCC in the west is BYU in a First Four game, but it's not likely #14 and #7 would play in the sweet sixteen.

[Stu Nahan]

Iona over Drexel, WTF?

They also had a better RPI and overall SOS.

[RedOctober3829]

Iona taking it to BYU 55-40 at halftime. Unbelievable half by the Gaels.

[DukeSox]

aaaaaand now a 5 point game with 10 min left.