97 replies to this topic

[Marbleheader]

Ben Cherington has graciously agreed to take some time to chat with the members of SoSH. We're looking at either Wednesday or Thursday most likely. Try to limit it to one thoughtful, fairly succinct question. Take some time to read through the thread to ensure the same question hasn't already been asked. He will answer the questions as he's able, and, if time allows, will participate in a live chat. I will let you know more specifically when this will happen. In the meantime, let's get some great questions posted.

[TomRicardo]

As in today or tomorrow?

[Marbleheader]

I believe that's what he meant. Sorry, I thought today was Tuesday.

[Marbleheader]

I'll kick it off:

Ben- what has been the most challenging part of the job so far that perhaps you didn't expect

[TomRicardo]

I know the feeling.

With the new draft cap as well as the international signing cap in the new CBA, does the value of International Free Agents who would not be privy to the cap (say a Tazawa or a Linares) go up or do you emphasize spending on scouting younger talent hoping to pick up undervalued or scouted talent for less?

[jodyreeddudley78]

_{Thank you for taking time out of your schedule to do this talk Ben. Lately line up construction has been something of a topic on the board. How involved do you feel the GM should be in this process? Hands on? Or do you believe in simply givng the manager as much information as possible and letting him handle the day to day decisions? Thank you.}

Edited by jodyreeddudley78, 07 March 2012 - 09:15 AM.

[Worst Trade Evah]

What is your process for monetizing player value, and how does defense figure in? WAR-type constructs, or something else? Don't be afraid to be specific or technical!

Good luck with the team. Our future happiness depends on you. No pressure or anything.

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 07 March 2012 - 09:17 AM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Wow. I mean, despite promising to do so, Theo Schettino never followed through on doing this.

What makes Jorge Soler an interesting player?

[TheoShmeo]

Ben, Larry Lucchino and others have stressed that the team has some powder left to address needs during the season. In the past, the team has usually not made moves until the July and August deadlines. While it's easy to understand that the deadlines create selling pressure and ordinarily provide an opportunity to get the best deals, it strikes me that the need to augment areas like the rotation or SS may present itself well before July 31. Given that you seem to be heading into the season with more question marks than the team has had in the past, as I believe you acknolwedged in an interview with D&C recently, is there a greater liklihood that the team may make a move well ahead of the July 31 deadline than it has in the past?

[ScubaSteveAvery]

What is Bobby Valentine's greatest strength? And what does he bring to the club that is different, or similar, to Francona, in terms of keeping the Red Sox an elite team?

[Toe Nash]

Wow, thanks for taking the time to do this, Ben.

From what we on the outside can tell, the team is likely to exceed the luxury tax cap even with the loss of Scutaro's $6 mil salary. But both Edwin Jackson and Kuroda signed one-year deals and many people have noted that they would have helped the team a lot and still allowed the budget to get under the threshold next year and "reset" the tax payment rate.

What were the biggest factors in not pursuing Kuroda and Edwin Jackson more aggressively? Essentially, were they strictly budgetary (we can't spend any more money), baseball-related (They're not worth the money they got), a combination of both (They may be worth $10 / 11 mil, but with the luxury tax we'd be paying $14 / 15 and they're not worth that) or something else?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Do you agree with some people that anything that goes wrong this year is Bobby Valentine's fault?

Do you think MLB should go to an International Draft and make the playing field more level for everyone? Or do you like it the way it is, where some teams may have a competitive advantage due to finances or existing international relationships?

Edited by Lose Remerswaal, 07 March 2012 - 09:42 AM.

[I am an Idiot]

Thanks for taking the time to come chat with us, Mr. Cherington. It's not often we get the sitting GM of our home town team agreeing to go one-on-one with us. It's an honor.

A couple of quick questions:

1) How do you foresee juggling fan expectations (all-star players everywhere! spend!) and wise spending (use of advanced statistics, projections, whatnot) to ultimately field a competitive team? Does it matter what the fans think, in the sense that they will cheer for a winning product regardless? How important is roster turnover, and if the answer is "very", how do you avoid handcuffing your roster construction with long term albatrosses?

2) Fun throwaway question: Who would win in a fight, a grizzly bear or a silverback gorilla?

[Lefty on the Mound]

How will the new playoff format, with the inclusion of an additional wild card team and a single game play-in to the Division Series, affect the availability of and cost to acquire players during the season?

[SMU_Sox]

Everyone knows about OBP. Most knowledgeable fans know about the measured defensive statistics in the game even if they are of limited value. Where are arbitrage opportunities? And if you don't want to answer that specifically, are there any opportunities for arbitrage anymore or are you dealing with everyone having more or less perfect information?
If you feel particularly generous can you comment at all on a semi-recent SI article suggesting that keeping skilled but injury-prone players healthy is the new "moneyball"?

Thanks, Ben. We all wish you nothing but the best!

[behindthepen]

How's your hockey game these days?

Are there viable commercial competitors to the MLB pitch f/x system, and how close are the Sox and other teams to using something like pitch f/x in-game to monitor pitcher performance?

[tims4wins]

1) It seems like we are closer and closer to having "complete" data when it comes to defense - soon enough we will know the exact location of every fielder before every pitch, the exact velocity / trajectory / spin of every ball in play, and it will result in having "complete" defensive statistics. After this occurs - whether it is in 2 years or 20 - are there any other areas of the game where statistical analysis is behind? In other words, after defense is completely understood, what else will there be to look at?

2) Piling on the pitch f/x question, do you ever see MLB implementing an automated ball/strike system? Would you be in favor of such a system?

Edited by tims4wins, 07 March 2012 - 10:52 AM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Ben,

Was the choice of Bobby Valentine in any small way a push against allowing the recognition that a baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint devolve into a team pacing itself?

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

You've been on the job for a few months now, what has been the most enjoyable part of your job so far? It's obvious that you wouldn't agree with people who say that this was not a great off-season for the Red Sox. How would you assuage their fears?

[Marbleheader]

Just to update, he has confirmed he will be on later this afternoon. Get your questions in!

[TheShynessClinic]

Ben -

There are a lot of smarter and more insightful baseball posters here who will surely test your baseball acumen and patience, so I'll ask you something fun.

It's well known that Theo was a pretty talented musician. Any hidden talents we should expect to see from you over the next couple of years?

Thanks for doing this, and good luck.

Edited by TheShynessClinic, 07 March 2012 - 10:44 AM.

[SaveBooFerriss]

Mr. Cherington,

How do you anticipate the new CBA will affect the team process of drafting players? Are the days of drafting and signing late round talent like Ryan Kalish and Lars Anderson over?

[Seabass177]

Ben, thanks so much for taking the time to answer our questions.

Due to caps on international signing bonuses put forth in the new CBA, are you concerned that elite athletes will no longer pursue baseball in places like the Dominican and Venezuela? Puerto Rico was once a great source of MLB talent, but since becoming subject to the draft in 1990, the number of Puerto Ricans in MLB have dwindled and many think the new CBA will have a similar effect on other countries. What do you think the Red Sox and MLB can do to ensure that the best prospects abroad will still pursue baseball careers if their bonuses are a fraction of what they would have been a year ago?

[pokey_reese]

Hi Ben,

(I just found out from my alumni magazine last night that you are a UMass grad, and it pleased me more than it should).

1.) How much would you say that your FO (or any team's FO) relies on proprietary metrics versus using the same metrics that we can see on Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference? Do you guys spend much time trying to solve the questions of defense/luck in pitching performance or just use SIERRA or something like that?

2.) Is your dollar-based evaluation of free agents fluid, or do you always have a hard number in mind that the player can't be worth more than, from an ROI standpoint, when you would walk away no matter what?

Thanks a lot, this is awesome.

[trekfan55]

Ben, the question has been asked about the lineup, but since this year thare are more questions than usual sorrounding the pitching staff, how involved will the Front Office be in the shaping of the rotation and bullpen, if at all? Who has the final decisions on who makes the final pitching spots?

[PrometheusWakefield]

Does Mike Aviles have the glove to be a full time starting shortstop?

[Worst Trade Evah]

Is there a "Red Sox Way" (the way the Patriots are thought to have, for example)? If so, what is it? Are there specific personality types or psychological attributes you look for in a player?

[Dogman2]

Hey Ben,

1. There are expectations for you and this team given the last 10 years of success. How are you handling those given the team you inheritied?

2. I may run The Iditarod (1000 mile dogsled race in AK - Iditarod.com) at some point in the near future. If I do, any interest in the Red Sox sponsoring me? (note: my brother is running it this year)

Thanks.

[Foulkey Reese]

Thanks so much for doing this Ben.

Which, if any, homegrown players who weren't with the big club last season do you expect to play an important role with the team at some point this year?

[SoxScout]

A couple of summers ago Mike Hazen was openly giddy talking about Xander Bogaerts when he was playing in the Dominican and basically unknown. We all know what has happened since then. While he may be an extreme case because of his talent level, do you have a few names for us of players who aren't all over Top 10 lists that you think could be there a year or two from now?

Thanks.

Edited by SoxScout, 07 March 2012 - 11:30 AM.

[Scoops Bolling]

Hey Ben,

Since his impressive 2010 season ended, Ryan Kalish has been a major disappointment due to all the time he's missed due to injury. What are the organization's expectations of Kalish in 2012, and do you have any update on when he's expected to be ready to play this season?

[SumnerH]

Ben, thanks for taking the time to do this.

As a former scout, can you give any insight into how domestic MLB scouting works? Especially at the high school level--are most schools basically ignored except for known power schools and teams that go deep into tournaments, or is there an effort to scout every player in the nation? Are there ever cases anymore of one team spotting a player with potential (e.g. from a small town) who's pretty much unknown to the rest of baseball? And can a high school player develop adequately enough to have ml potential playing in the normal public school system, or is it pretty much a must to structure the high school experience around baseball?

[Rough Carrigan]

How does the imposition of fairly rigid slotting in regard to amateur draft bonuses affect the team's overall plan for talent acquisition?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Ben,

Thanks so much for coming by to answer questions from the peanut gallery of second-guessers here at SoSH. Here are my questions for you:

Will Middlebrooks burst on the prospect scene last year, seemingly out of nowhere, because prospect mavens from outside the organization had paid scant attention to him since his statistically-disappointing 2008. With this in mind, what do Sox talent evaluators look for -- beyond the stat line -- in minor league players? In what way do you believe these criteria help the team make trades for budding young talent within other team's systems? How do these criteria help determine what is too rich a price in Sox prospects to pay for established major league players? And how have these criteria changed since you began working for the Red Sox?

[johnnywayback]

What's been the worst move the Red Sox have made since Bagwell-for-Andersen? It can be one you were partially responsible for or not.

[Doctor G]

Ben, what is the teams position on trades within the AL East?
There seems to have been a reluctance to do this in the last few years, what can we expect going forward?

[Corsi]

What is the plan for Daisuke? Should he return in June, as expected, is there a rotation spot waiting for him? With his supposed ability to pitch nearly every day, would his stuff play out of the bullpen, or is that too large of a risk for a player returning from Tommy John surgery?

[yecul]

If you had been in this position the last 3 years what are two things you would have done differently?

[Mugsys Jock]

What was your reaction to the Yankee's promise to get their payroll down to the $189 million cap in two years?

[And thanks very much for checking in here. We may be a bunch of assholes, but our collective heart is in the right place. I think.]

[brs3]

Ben, thanks for doing this, and best of luck in 2012.

Can you offer insight into the team's process of narrowing down the players that the team has on their 'wish' list? Looking at recent acquisitions, I can't help but hope that the next Bill Mueller or David Ortiz is just an obscure off-season pick up away. In the cases of Mueller & Ortiz, both were picked up in mid-to-late January to little fanfare. Nobody expected a batting champ and the greatest clutch hitter in Sox history to come out of those signings. Is it a matter of the team getting lucky with what's left in the free agent pool, smart scouting, or a combination of both?

That being said, is there any recent acquisition that has long been a target for the Red Sox?

[Rough Carrigan]

In years past, at trade deadlines and at the height of offseason activity, Theo several times explained that some moves were not made in order to preserve "payroll flexibility". Yet, it seems that by this past offseason the team had maneuvered itself into exactly that sort of position, having little or no payroll flexibility. Was there a change in team policy somewhere along the way?

[opes]

Is Nick Punto and Mike Aviles really the answer at SS? Jose Iglesias is looking pretty good in Spring Training so far. Do you think he is ready?

[JimBoSox9]

One of the biggest questions in the development of a starting pitcher, is whether it is preferable to keep them in AAA taking regular starts until a rotation spot opens up on the big club, or to wean them on MLB hitters via a bullpen role. Where do you stand on this in general, and what factors go into the decision-making for any specific pitcher?

Thanks for agreeing to chat with us!

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Hi Ben, we appreciate the time you are spending to respond to our questions.

As I'm sure you know, a lot of us are very interested in the farm system. Along the lines of a few other questions - in terms of developing prospects, what systemic things do you think the Red Sox do really well? Are there one or two things that you think need to get better?

Thanks again,
WBCD

[Fishercat]

Ben, thanks for coming to talk to us.

I'm guessing over the past decade+ with the team, there have been personnel decisions (players, prospects, etc.) made that didn't match what you thought should be done. If you feel at liberty to answer this, can you name a couple players or trades (whether it was in the draft, trade or FA) that you really wanted the team to go after that they decided not to or failed to acquire (for better or for worse)?

Also, if I remember correctly (and looking over the stint between the two Epistein eras), you are the first GM of the Sox since Haywood Sullivan to be promoted from within as a long-term employee of the club. How do you see yourself as similar to your predecessors in the position (mostly Epstein, but maybe Duquette too) and how do you see yourself as different?

Thanks!

[Manramsclan]

Thanks Ben.

Do you see traditional scouting tenets taking more of a prominent role in player evaluation(specifically through the draft) in your tenure as General Manager as opposed to previous regimes? If so how? If not why not?

[C4CRVT]

Good afternoon Ben,

Which of the currently in-use defensive metrics do you believe is closest to what you believe to be accurate? Put a different way, we often refer to UZR/150 as a measuring tool to determine defensive value; do your metrics show that the total impact of defense is greater or less than UZR/150 or do you believe that that metric is flawed in some other way in your opinion (penalizing or rewarding players in a way that doesn't line up well with your evaluations)?

Edited by C4CRVT, 07 March 2012 - 12:43 PM.

[Laser Show]

This is all sorts of awesome. Thanks for giving us some time Ben.

Can you possibly elaborate on the John Lackey situation? I read recently in the Globe that he has been pitching in pain for the past two years. Why was his arm not checked out after 2010? And with him having TJ surgery, can we now expect to see something closer to the LA Lackey going forward rather than the Boston version?

[ookami7m]

Thanks for joining us for this Ben, and welcome to the feeding frenzy.

We know that previous members of the FO have read and looked into things on SoSH and probably other places as well - how much value does a team like the Red Sox put into fan generated information and sentiment? For example the pitch tipping from a couple of years ago that was pointed out by our users.

[beezer]

Ben, thanks for taking the time to do this.

I was just hoping to gain a little insight into the front office thought process when it comes bidding for players from Japan through the posting system. How does the front office view the posting fee since it doesn't have luxury tax implications? Is there an internal discount applied to the posting spend or do you develop a total value you feel a player is worth that the posting plus contract amounts can't eclipse?

Along related lines, as an interested observer, do you have any thoughts regarding how the process played out with Darvish this year? Did either the posting fee amount or the contract surprise you in any way?