83 replies to this topic

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

A lot of good things yesterday. I know it's early and the competition isn't a good compass but these are just initial reactions.

Lester and Doubront both were impressive in their outings. Lester saying he feels better at this point then he did last year. Bobby V saying of Doubront that he's a little ahead of the other pitchers with his command and stuff right now. Doubront credits McClure with correcting his landing from being on his heel to on his toes.

It seems that Lester is extremely motivated this year and I'm starting to think he may finally have that big breakthrough season in which he becomes our true #1.

It's also intersting to see that McClure is already seemingly becoming a major helping factor to this pitching staff. Let's hope he can fix Miller too.

Sweeney and Ross both impressed yesterday as well. They both homered, Ross twice.

How great would it be if Sweeney played to his pontential this year? If he could finally add some power he could be the biggest steal of the off-season for us. I get the sense that Sweeney will play the majority in right if he can prove that he can hit. I'm not discounting Ross either. RF is up for grabs at this point but Sweeney has a slight edge.

Adrian homered yesterday as well and said after the game his shoulder feels 100%. He also said he feels much more comfortable this year.

Barring injury, he's going to have a MONSTER season.

Aviles got off to a good start, 2 doubles 2 RBI.

We know he's got the bat (might actually be better offensively this season than Scutaro) let's hope he can field the position too. I'm pulling for Iglesias to show he can hit, but he's going to have to do a ton to win this position. Still an outside chance though.

Lavarnway, again, with a good game as well with a couple hits, looked good behind the plate.

No doubt in my mind he's the starting C next year. None.

I thought it was interesting that Bobby V wants to get a good look at Ortiz playing first throughout spring training. He said that Ortiz looked good in drills and that he has him as one of the first baseman on the roster. This would be great for the days Adrian gets some rest, not having to shuffle the lineup too much.

Other notables from yesterday were Lin who homered and Linares who had 2 RBI, both who'll be in AAA to start the season but could get called up.

Tazawa had kind of a rough start giving up 2 runs on 4 hits in 2IP. Bobby V commented that his command was a little off.

This kid needs another season in AAA. He's still young though.

Figured this would be a good place to discuss the games and how the roster was shaping up throughout the spring. It was nice to hear Don and Jerry yesterday, makes me realize the season's right around the corner.

[brace]

I know it's early and the competition isn't a good compass

Well said...

Drawing any additional conclusions from 2 games against college teams seems to be the very definition of premature IMO.

Having said that, it was good to see the RS playing baseball.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Notables from today

Beckett looked pretty rusty. His command wasn't great factoring in what I hope was him easing up on his velocity. He seemed oddly in a good mood in his interview afterwards though. Take that FWIW.

Miller actually looked pretty good today. A little wild but effective. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Melancon wasn't too impressive. Seemed like they were getting good contact off of him.

Salty looked OK behind the plate. The Twins tested him often running the bases. He threw one guy out on a close play.

Aviles had another solid day all around. He came through with a 2 run hit after a baserunning mistake by Ross (didn't see Pedroia hold up at 3rd) almost ruined the inning.

Iglesias looked really good in the field. Nothing new there. He's going to have to start crushing the ball if he's going to have even the slightest chance of making this team.

Lars hit a towering grand slam to put the game away after most of our starters were done. He actually looked pretty decent in the field too.

Oscar Tejada can really swing the bat, but his fielding isn't so hot.

All in all a decent day for the Sox. Not the prettiest of wins, in fact the game was a little too close before the Lars slam, seeing it was most of our starters vs. the Twins AAAA team. There was a lot of talk at the beginning of the game about Pedey leading off and how Bobby V likes to have a lefty bat 2nd. Not trying to read too much into it yet but it'll be interesting to see how that develops.

[Kilgore A. Trout]

There was a lot of talk at the beginning of the game about Pedey leading off and how Bobby V likes to have a lefty bat 2nd. Not trying to read too much into it yet but it'll be interesting to see how that develops.

I think this'll be much ado about nothing. Crawford's a lefty and he hit second in Tampa. As long as he recovers at least some of his skills this year, and gets back healthy soon, I see no reason to not slot him there, put Dustin third and Adrian fourth. Apart from being seriously LHB heavy at the top, it almsot feels like the natural construction if having a LHB bat second is really that key to Valentine.

Edited by Kilgore A. Trout, 04 March 2012 - 05:30 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

I thought it interesting that Beckett was at 88-90 mph.

http://www.boston.co...r_anderson.html

Not sure if he always starts off that slow or not.

It's hard to read much into ST results, especially this early. It gets more interesting in a couple of weeks when you start seeing more of the other teams A lineups, but those games tend to be away games and our A team does not always travel (that might change under Bobby V).

That said, Wins and Grandslams by your guys are good things, even if they are not predictive.

[adam42381]

The wife and I went to the first spring training game yesterday at the new park. After watching the Sox lose all 6 games I attended last year (5 spring training, 1 regular season at Tampa Bay), it was nice to see them get a win, even if it was against the Twins split squad group. Beckett looked a little rusty, but pitched okay. Miller scared me by starting with a walk, but settled down quickly, K-ing 3 in a row. The offense looked okay. Lars Anderson hit a bomb to right field for a grand slam which was nice.

The stadium is a great place to watch a game. My only complaint is that the lawn seating area isn't raised/sloped enough. We got there early and were at the very front of the lawn and we couldn't see over the safety railing over the bullpens, so we were stuck looking through the bars the whole time. We moved back a bit, but the rise is so slight that you're never able to fully see over the railing. Poor planning in my opinion. For the record, we weren't the only people complaining about this. Hopefully they can fix it for next year.

[koufax37]

Some observations on tonight's game:

Punto is a very solid smart ballplayer, and valuable as a utility player. I we are all in agreement that we don't want his bat over 162 games, but he will be a useful role player.

Iglesias is a tremendous defensive player and I think will easily live up to his billing. I just don't think his combination of no plate discipline and no power is going to create enough runs to have any shot of overtaking Aviles. I don't think he needs a triple-A tune up, but he completely needs to learn things he doesn't know how to do yet, and might not do. I'm very wary of the Bobby-Played-Ray-Ordonez thought process. Our lineup can't have a pitcher's slot or it can't turn over like we need it to, and I don't think there is any way he comes close to saving enough runs over Aviles in the field to keep his bat in the lineup. I hope he can learn to hit in Pawtucket, because he still is young and his glove is special, but I'm not too optimistic we will be seeing much of him before rosters expand, and would rather he get regular at bats with Punto filling in then go up and down and spend time on the bench.

Padilla has the inside track to be our 5th starter. I think he showed everything tonight that have made him successful in the past, and while I think Aceves won't be too far behind, he will lose any ties or close battles due to his usefulness in the bullpen. Doubront and Miller can still battle things out, but I don't see them beating out Padilla to start the season. I think he has a good chance to stay healthy, and if he does, I think he has a good chance to be like last year's Freddie Garcia plus 5mph.

Buchholz showed some very impressive action on his change up and curve for someone in his first start after missing half a season. It was nice to see him not very rusty with them. His fastball didn't seem to have any life, but that is something I would wait a couple weeks before being concerned with.

While I'm not sure how much they will really matter during the season, I very much enjoyed the delayed steal by Iglesias as well as the ephus slow curveball by Padilla, and hated the terrible bunt by Iglesias.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Those are great points koufax, I pretty much feel the same way.

Punto looks to be a great bench asset. "Solid" I think is a good word.

Buchholz looked a little off in the beginning but really settled down. For someone who hasn't had any "game" action since last June, it was a very good outing. His off speed stuff was great.

I've been under the assumption that Padilla would be our fifth starter for a little while now, and he showed last night that he's more than likely the front runner. His stuff looked really good. I'm sure pitching in the off-season helps. The first curveball he snapped off was ridiculous, pretty sure it was a strike but I don't think the ump even knew what happened. Calling it a 12 to 6 curve doesn't really do it justice.

Old man Papi showed some pretty good power at the plate and looked pretty fluid at first. I like that Bobby V is playing him in the field, it'll be pretty nice to have that option if needed. Papi might have a surprising year this year, he's definitely looking trimmer.

Iglesias doesn't disappoint in the field. He lives up to the hype. He gets the ball out of his glove faster than anyone I've ever seen. His plate discipline does look better, but i don't think it's going to be enough to beat out Aviles. I still think there's a paper thin chance, but it's fading. Bobby really likes him.

Middlebrooks looked good again, at the plate (2 for 2) and in the field.

Dan Butler went deep as well last night.

As far as the managing goes, I like how aggresive we are on the basepaths so far. I hope that translates into a more aggresive approach in the regular season.

Another interesting note, I heard that Bobby V plans on trying Adrian in the outfield some time this spring. He's trying to squeeze every last bit of talent or statistical upperhand out of this team. I like it.

[koufax37]

I think Ortiz at first and Adrian in the outfield are both excellent things to try in Spring Training to see how competent the guys might be and to help get them comfortable. And if they prove not to be comfortable or competent enough, it is better to know now and not in May/June.

We play 9 road games in NL ballparks (PHI, MIA, CHC), and while mixing in an offday for each of them, especially Ortiz against a tough lefty (although Lee and Hamels don't have strong platoon splits), I would hate to see one of them on the bench for each of those games, especially when we have Miami and the Cubs back to back. So if we can get maybe six games with those guys out of position without it being a circus, give Ortiz two days off and Adrian one, I think we are better off than just having Ortiz be a PH for nine games.

As for Valentine and his stance on the running game/small ball, and his love for Iglesias, I am somewhat concerned that he might drift a little too far in that direction, and hope it is done with moderation. There is probably no sillier looking play than a delayed steal when you are out, but it is fun when they are safe. Similarly I don't want to see Iglesias as a defacto pitchers-slot in an NL lineup because we love his glove. I know the drop from a 330 OBP (Aviles guestimate) to a 285 OBP (Iglesias guestimate) is around 30 extra outs over a full season, but somehow I feel that the impact would be more than that roughly 1 baserunner per week lost, and disrupt the continuity and turnover of our deep lineup.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Again, great points but I'm not sure Bobby does anything in moderation. I think it's safe to say so far that Bobby's managerial outlook and Tito's are like night and day. I'm not overly concerned with the small ball stuff, it's nice to see an aggresive approach either way. This year's going to be interesting, one way or the other. That's about the only thing that's certain right now.

[koufax37]

I enjoy Bobby tremendously, and am excited for the season, whether we get delayed steals, eyeblack mustaches, or something else, and he is a great interview, a great showman, and I also think a very good manager.

I do think he will likely not be able to sit back and let his team hit which is conducive to winning baseball games over the course of 162, but he will want to be involved and doing things. When the dust settles I hope that while costing us some runs over the season, it doesn't really add up to winning fewer games, and rather a little bit like Scioscia he maybe turns a 6-2 win into a 4-2 win, which put K-Rod into more save situations, but did not cost his team many wins.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

I've seen posts here and on the main forum regarding A-Gon in the outfield, and I am not a fan. I think he is just way too slow to be in the outfield, even if it is just spring training. I don't want to see him there in interleague away games either. I'm picturing a scene where he tries to run faster than he normally would, and he strains a hamstring, or even pulls a Ryan Howard and blows out an achilles. I just want him to hit the ball hard and jog around the bases, the way the Baseball Gods intended large power-hitting AL players to do.

[koufax37]

I'm picturing a scene where he tries to run faster than he normally would, and he strains a hamstring, or even pulls a Ryan Howard and blows out an achilles.

He is not fast when running his hardest, but this seems like a pretty low risk, and not like when fielders pitch or pitchers bat and do something completely out of their element physically.

If he has ANY chance of getting hurt trying to run his fastest in a straight line on major league quality grass, then we have a big problem because he is under contract for quite a few seasons of getting older. I don't expect him to go very fast when he is trying his fastest, but the fact that he isn't as naturally fast as Ellsbury doesn't mean he shouldn't be in just as good physical shape as they are, and shouldn't be working on his running as much to make sure he is safe 1st to 3rd, etc.

And seeing his comfort level in the spring makes it a lot easier for Bobby to understand if there is a risk here. I personally don't think any gold glove caliber fielder in his prime should have any added risk playing a corner outfield spot. The risk is to the pitchers as balls drop, but in the three game series in Philly, Chicago, and Miami, I would way rather watch a couple balls drop in front of A-Gon the outfielder and a couple balls drop into the stands off the bat of A-Gon and Ortiz the batters.

Plus, with Crawford's and Ellsbury's crazy speed out there, we can probably shift a couple steps his way without losing much.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

The pitching was the main attraction today.

Bard, Aceves, Mortensen, and Bowden all pitched well and none of them were scored upon. Aceves was impressive, although I still think he's bullpen bound and that's not a bad thing.

Alex Wilson was a train wreck.

Pickoff attempts have been abundant so far in ST, and today was no different. Yet another fundamental that's being hammered home by Bobby V.

Speaking of fundamentals, Ellsbury had a sac bunt early in the game. Not sure I'm a fan of the situation but I like the trying to manufacture runs thinking nontheless. It's just practice.

For some odd reason Punto was DH'ing. That didn't go so well either. I'd rather see Iglesias DH...

Lavarnway had another decent day at the plate but was thrown out at home on a Ross double, he also had a passed ball behind the plate. Nothing major IMO. He's still learning.

Funny you bring up Scioscia, koufax, he was my first thought when figuring how Bobby would manage this team. I understand the costing us runs concern, and not letting hitters hit, but it really comes down to situations. I would hope we won't be sac bunting in the beginning of a game, rather when the situation called for it.

As far as A-Gon in the field, I don't think injury is much of a risk. He can hurt himself just as bad diving for a ball playing first or stretching off the bag to make an out. If it's less than a handful of games I don't see an issue.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

Punto DH'ing? A-Gon in the outfield?

This could fit right along with the scene in Ghostbusters when the spirits get released.

Ray Stanz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!
Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!
Winston Zeddmore: The dead rising from the grave!
Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!

Edited by jnlevetoncnmt, 06 March 2012 - 07:28 PM.

[koufax37]

If Punto DHs all year I would have a problem. Getting him some ABs in this game being the plan, I don't care at all.

I don't like Ellsbury sacrifice bunting any time before the 9th inning of the World Series in Arizona against Mariano Rivera (or something close to that). He can definitely bunt in other situations, but it better be at least halfway between a hit and a sac with his speed.

In the Scioscia comparisons, it is importan that Aviles doesn't play Napoli to Punto's Mathis (or Shoppach over Lavarnway if Ryan continues to develop) or other forehead slapping decisions like that, and that we don't steal and bunt and hit and run our way away from the big innings.

But even more important, one of the other casualties of small ball is reducing pitch counts and erroding the Red Sox and Yankees "feast on the middle relievers" success. When you sacrifice bunt you generally make an out on one pitch. When you hit and run, you force the at bat to not go deeper (although often done ahead in the count so a few pitches in). When you run more, you make more outs on the bases (even if you are 75% successful and happy overall) and take plate appearances away which take pitches away. These are slightly offset by avoiding some double plays, but I think the result overall is not only fewer big innings for more single run innings, but also fewer pitches seen per game and less strain placed on the opposing bullpens. I'm not sure how tangible and significant this is, but I am concerned that the gradual shift in philosophy could undermine our offensive juggernaut during Bobby's tenure and he will end up doing things that Bill James won't really approve of.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Jon Lester looked good yesterday, throwing three scoreless innings. I'm still under the assumption that he's the most motivated guy on this staff. I'm not handing him the Cy Young yet, but he's our starter opening day.

Not a lot of action yesterday otherwise, but others who impressed were:

P Justin Germano who Valentine spoke highly of, saying he envisions him as a spot starter.

Aviles played well, yet again. He said he's very comfortable at short already.

OF Bryce Brentz received high praise from Bobby V as well.

All in all a lackluster day, couldn't watch either game but that's my impression.

koufax, as far as a new philosophy undermining the offense I'd have to think that Bobby knows the firepower we have and isn't going to waste that. As far as pitch counts go, I'd also have to think that patience at the plate is going to be preached because it's fundamentally intelligent to do so and that's, more or less, Bobby's MO. The small ball stuff, IMO, isn't going to rear it's head until the later innings of close games and in those situations giving up an out to get a run is solidifying a win if you're confident in your bullpen. When it comes down to it a W is more important than runs scored. However, the aggresiveness on the basepaths, while you have a valid point that even if you're 75% successful, which isn't bad, you're still giving up outs, is probably going to happen throughout the games anyway. While the "laid back' approach has worked for us in the past, I don't think being aggresive is going to hurt, in fact I think it will give the game some urgency and make things a little more exciting.

[koufax37]

I hope you are right, and Bobby doesn't overmanage us to a slightly weaker offense. I don't think that it being obvious to us is enough of a reason to hope for it, because both a little bit of the old school is still around in him and most managers, as well as a healthy dose of ego. It takes some big balls to come out on a big stage as a big personality and then sit back and not make yourself involved and just let guys play. I think he is smart enough not to turn into a disaster, but I suspect he will be more active than Tito for in game management, and likely cost us a few runs but hopefully not wins in the process.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Beckett looked better yesterday throwing 3 scoreless. He's really working with his changeup so far this ST.

Iglesias was the star yesterday on the field and with his bat. That's right his bat. 3-run triple in the 8th to tie the game. He went 1-4 though...

"I was traded for Theo" pitched a scoreless 7th, before not recording an out in the 8th letting the 4 batters he faced in the inning reach base, 3 coming from walks.

Thankfully tonights game against the Pirates will be televised on NESN. These past few games have been pretty difficult to follow.

[koufax37]

Can someone let Inman know when you double up on the curveball you need to make the second one harder to hit Especially when that is the only pitch you are throwing close to the zone and they are probably looking for it. He was more than a strikeout an inning in AAA last year, but I didn't see anything tonight to make me think he is a factor after March.

Even though he bobbled and didn't make the play, Aviles just showed off a plus arm throw to first, which was the first time I had seen that and reassuring to see.

[koufax37]

Lavarnway taking two hittable strikes to jam himself on a pitcher's pitch. I don't mind the discipline to work the count, but he needs a better two strike effort if he is going to let those first two strikes go by.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Notables from last night

Bucholz pitched three innings last night, he looked pretty good even though he gave up 2 runs. Clay said he felt good physically after this outing. I'm not sure if it's something I just haven't noticed before but it seems like most if not all of our pitchers are spending a lot of time with their off-speed stuff this ST. I don't think it's a bad thing, in fact their off-speed stuff looks better than their fastballs do. Pickoff attempts are at an all time high as well. Although I've seen a decent amount of success with that.

Padilla was supposed to pitch three but got shelled in his second inning of work giving up 4 runs on 5 hits. I had assumed he had the inside track for the 5th starter spot but with as much praise as Doubront has been getting, I think the tables might be turning. There's still time , but he really didn't look good last night.

Four stolen bases last night with one caught stealing. Aviles should've been caught but reached second on a bad throw by the Pirates first baseman. Ross was 1-2 getting thrown out on a strike 'em out throw 'em out to end an inning. Butler and Ciriaco had the other two. I'll say it again I'm a big fan of what's going on, on the basepaths so far.

Papi hit his second homer of ST last night off of a LHP. That's a pretty good sign if you ask me. If Papi is hitting lefties in the regular season, it bodes well for this lineup.

DMC had a long ball as well, he went 2 for 2 on the night. It'd be great if there was room for him when Crawford comes back ,but I don't see it. Not unless they try him in the IF.

Can someone let Inman know when you double up on the curveball you need to make the second one harder to hit Especially when that is the only pitch you are throwing close to the zone and they are probably looking for it. He was more than a strikeout an inning in AAA last year, but I didn't see anything tonight to make me think he is a factor after March.

Even though he bobbled and didn't make the play, Aviles just showed off a plus arm throw to first, which was the first time I had seen that and reassuring to see.

Inman did look terrible, I actually shut the game off before his second inning.

The Aviles play, I'm going to have to disagree with you a little bit, while it was a strong throw it was way too high and brought Anderson off the bag. He showed a little indecisiveness on that play double-clutching the ball. Iglesias makes that play... just sayin'

[koufax37]

The Aviles play, I'm going to have to disagree with you a little bit, while it was a strong throw it was way too high and brought Anderson off the bag. He showed a little indecisiveness on that play double-clutching the ball. Iglesias makes that play... just sayin'

Iglesias makes the play look easy. But Aviles showed a little bit of a stronger arm than I had expected from him and am used to seeing with Scutaro. It was the first time I remember seeing that "tool" from our offensive SS. I'm bullish on him having a good season, but still hoping that Iglesias learns how to hit over the course of this year enough to get his glove on the field. I am not too optimistic at Iglesias making enough progress, but I am certainly rooting for him.

I'm agreed about Padilla, and Doubront could definitely move ahead of him based on performance. I still think he has the stuff and experience to be effective and the guy, but if he doesn't execute enough pitches, someone else will. And obviously having a second LHP in the rotation over a season against the NYY is an advantage for Felix if it is a tossup.

[koufax37]

I would like to welcome all of you to join me on the Daniel Bard bandwagon. There is plenty of room on it, but we expect seats to fill up quickly.

That's the first time I have seen him throw a third inning, and I was very impressed with his repeated delivery, his easy arm action, and his command remaining. Those are all qualities that I expected to be there, but I'm happy to see so early.

I wasn't impressed with his change up today, but he threw his slider for a strike, threw some really good two seamers (which like his famous Swisher pitch don't seem to lose velocity and he hit 95 on one), and threw his fastball well (with a little less command than I would like) and it is nice to see him sitting 94-96 in spring training without adrenaline. I still think he will have 97s and 98s in important situations with the blood flowing in the season.

I know Bobby is just messing around, so I won't complain until April, but we are doing way too much small ball, and I'm not sure what was going on with the steal of home attempt with one of your best hitters at the plate and a lefty hitter and rhp. Weaker hitter, lhp, and righty batter maybe I can see it, but I hope these antics are feeling things out and learning, and not too much a sign of things to come.

I love seeing Iglesias hit the ball well. His error to Upton was a great swing, and his hit and run was just a well placed ground ball, but nice bat control. I still don't think he is going to be ready for a while, but I am so excited that there is a chance he proves me wrong.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I've been on the Bard bandwagon since I watched his interview prior to Spring training. His stuff is downright filthy, and he has the right attitude. That's 2/3 of the equation now he just has to show the endurance. Last night was a very good outing for him. He looked unhittable for the first 2 batters, then he started to get "cute" with his pitches before the first inning ended. He settled down after that, inducing a lot of ground ball outs. His fastball velocity was impressive. I think we're going to have something pretty special here in Bard as a starter. I'd hate to prematurely start throwing the Verlander comparison around but the make-up is similar.

Iglesias looked pretty exceptional again last night and is really starting to make a case for a battle for the starting spot. The whispers are growing. His first at-bat really impressed me hitting the ball through the gap in the infield the opposite way during a hit and run with Punto on, allowing Punto to get to third. His "triple" later on which was more an error by Upton, was still intriguing showing a glimpse of opposite field power. His lone hiccup was the attempted steal of home a play later, which turned out to be a misread sign. He was supposed to fake towards home, not actually take off. Still learning...

Aceves also pitched extremely well last night and is really making a case for the 5th starter position. This is going to come right down to the end of Spring. It would be beneficial to have his skills in the bullpen as a long man/ 6th starter, but if they feel like they can get that from someone else, possibly Doubront, then Aceves could easily be our 5th starter. I agree with koufax that Doubront probably gets the upperhand in that race because he's a lefty.

[koufax37]

Yes, I have been on the Verlander comp actually since watching him work out and long toss before a game last July. I don't think our expectations should be anywhere near that high, but that is the style of pitcher he is, and that talent is wasted in 70 innings of relief. I'm also very impressed with the attitude and approach in the different interviews I have seen.

I found it very interesting yesterday how he was talking about the work load of the 70 inning relief ace. I think it is significantly more than a closer, and he outlined why, especially since he can be up or not in the 7th, 8th, as the game changes. I know a closer can as well, but I would guess that him throwing 150-160 innings as a starter this year would not be more taxing, and he is likely to handle it well.

Becoming a 200 inning pitcher will probably have to wait until 2014, but I also think they can keep him in the rotation this year and not have to move him to the bullpen, by skipping the occasional start, having him have a few five inning 85 pitch games, and especially if Aceves is in his same role as last year, he can sure as heck pick up the 6th and 7th sometimes for Bard the way he had to for Lackey and Wake and company. We also have to remember that with the different playoff format this year, the importance of the post season 4th starter might increase, so I don't want to give up on him staying a starter yet.

I love the Iglesias dream and as I have stated really hope to be proven wrong, but I don't see him showing the signs of being a 600 OPS bat yet. I loved the effectiveness of his swings last night, but both of his positive results seemed to be on pretty easy to handle pitches, and I'm still worried about his ability to be effective against good pitching. It would be so cool if he can progress faster than expectations, but I still see Aviles's glove+bat worth a bunch of runs more than Iglesias's glove+bat. But I am certainly very encouraged that we could look up in June/July and see him doing well in AAA and not looking like a glove only guy.

I was also impressed with Aceves especially after Padilla's last outing. He loses tie breakers because he has proven how useful he is in the pen (like Doubront wins ties because he is lefty), but he also gets the spot outright if it isn't a "tie", and he has shown signs that he could just win it again last night with his strong showing.

Anyway, compared to the early off-season gloom, I am very impressed that we are looking to have four top of the rotation healthy guys plus a three way competition of strong candidates for the 5th slot (four if Miller can get healthy quick, but that's a big if right now). Anything to keep the Aaron Cook's of the world away from the rotation. Add in a return of Dice-K, and I don't think we have to talk Wakefield out of retirement or worry too much if Oswalt thinks Boston is a nice place to spend summer vacation.

I've also hoped Lars Anderson would show enough to be a potential trade chip, but I haven't really like his approach and mechanics this spring, and see him being more valuable developing in triple-A and being a trade chip down the road (or a future contributor in the eventual post-Oritz era if he blossoms). I know the numbers looked good for a 23 year old in triple-A last year, but I don't see him close enough to MLB ready.

DMac is a guy who I think will outperform expectations, and having him and Ross in the lineup against lefties early in the season is a nice matchup, and also gives Crawford a good spot to rest his wrist and get a day off against lefties when he returns. He has done well with his results (which he has shown flashes of since his original call up), but I also have seen a more mature hitter with a better approach consistently over at bats. I know they will both have opposite platoon splits in terms of ABs, but I have been much more impressed with DMac than Sweeney so far in terms of approach and plate discipline.

[Sampo Gida]

I am going to hold off being excited by the rotations top 4 until I see Bard and Buchholz in back to back 100 pitch games.

Aceves is the current leader for the 5th spot, although it's still way too early. FWIW

Aceves- 5 IP, 0.00 ERA
Miller - 2 IP, 0.00 ERA (sore elbow)
Padilla - 4 IP, 9.00 ERA.
Doubront -2 IP, 9.00 ERA
Cooke-2 IP, 0.00 ERA
Germano 3 IP, 0.00 ERA
Duckworth 3 IP 0.00
Tazawa 2 IP, 0.00 ERA
Mortenson 3 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA
Wilson 1 IP, 36.00 ERA

Maine, Silva and Ohlendorf have not pitched.

[MakMan44]

Quick question because I didn't really know where else to put it and I've been thinking about it for a couple. Lars is doing pretty damn well these first few games. If he continues to do so, what's going to happen to him?

[koufax37]

I respect your right to hold off on excitement, and spring games don't count last I checked. But I think our top 4 are tremendously talented, and showing a lot so far this spring while healthy, so I am willing to get excited already.

I don't think ERA is a great spring training small sample size reflection of performance and readiness to win regular season games, but it sure shows that Aceves has been pitching well, and probably the best, as does his 4:0 K:BB (1:3 Padilla, 2:3 Doubront). That said, I think that what is a predictor of later spring success is how well pitchers have been throwing more than the result statistics, and it is later in the spring as they start to stretch out that we might look at numbers. But no matter how you cut it, Aceves has pitched well, and has earned a position on top of the early 5th starter depth chart. Whether he holds off Doubront, Padilla, and Miller remains to be seen, and I think he loses "tie breakers" to all three of them if it is too close to call, so he has to maintain his clear edge to win the spot.

I am going to hold off being excited by the rotations top 4 until I see Bard and Buchholz in back to back 100 pitch games.

Aceves is the current leader for the 5th spot, although it's still way too early. FWIW

Aceves- 5 IP, 0.00 ERA
Miller - 2 IP, 0.00 ERA (sore elbow)
Padilla - 4 IP, 9.00 ERA.
Doubront -2 IP, 9.00 ERA

I don't think Lars has any chance of making the ballclub even if he keeps up his hot hitting. There just aren't any ABs to be had at DH or 1B, and I also think he is performing well ahead of his actual abilities on a nice hot streak, and isn't MLB ready yet. If he has value before Ortiz retires it is as a trade chip, otherwise he might have to spend the season in Pawtucket and show that he can consistently perform. Remember his 23 year old first season in triple-A OPS was 150pts less than Lavarnway, and rather than try to take at bats from Shoppach, he is trying to take at bats from two of our top hitters. He might be a candidate if Adrian or Ortiz has an injury, instead of moving Youk across and starting Punto at 3B, but other than that or a trade, he is our Pawtucket cleanup hitting first baseman with a great experience to put in his belt from this Spring.

Quick question because I didn't really know where else to put it and I've been thinking about it for a couple. Lars is doing pretty damn well these first few games. If he continues to do so, what's going to happen to him?

[Sampo Gida]

The thing that hurts Aceves chances is Doubront is out of options and Padilla might not take too well to the pen notwithstanding his words to the contrary. I think Doubront and Padilla would have to pitch pretty poorly for Aceves to get the 5th spot to open the season, although I would not be surprised to see him get the spot before the season ends if Melancon and Bailey are healthy and effective.

As for Lars, he is trade bait at this point. ST performance at this stage means little. I remember Chris Carter leading the team in HR a couple of years ago and he spent all of 2011 in the minors (Rays/.Braves). That does not mean Lars does not have a lot more upside than Chris Carter.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Lars has no chance whatsoever of making this team unless A-Gon gets hurt. He's blocked at first by Gonzalez and he's not a better DH option than Lavarnway. He's a great prospect, but as Sampo said he's trade bait at this point and is probably going to net us a decent starting pitcher if he continues to look as good as he has.

Looks like there's another name to throw in the hat for the 5th starter spot with Cooks outing yesterday. To me, this is the fun of Spring training. Every game there's someone fighting for a spot, and trying to out perform the others. He doesn't have the "upside" of a Doubront or a Miller or even Padilla for that matter, but if he's consistent he's more than serviceable. All that said I don't think he has a chance. Just my opinion.

Germano looked pretty good yesterday too. He looks to be winning the 7th starter race, he'll start in AAA but will be the first one called up if needed.

Lester had another decent outing yesterday, despite a shaky start walking 3 in the first two innings. He settled down after that and retired seven of the last eight batters. IMO, he's still on course to be our #1.

Lavarnway had another good day all around. He ended the game yesterday blocking the plate on a sac-fly attempt and went 1-1 at the plate. You have to think that if Shoppach weren't here he'd easily be our back-up catcher if not fighting for the starters spot. I'm not sure the Sox knew exactly what they had with him, he's been very good defensively, surprising most.

Cody Ross is continuing to impress at the plate going 2-2 yesterday. He's showing a lot more at the plate than Sweeney so far and at this point I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the majority of the playing time in RF.

Hassan went 0-1 bringing his ST line to .000/.375/.000. If only he could walk a couple more times...

Iglesias is going to sit with a groin injury. No one's saying how long, but by all accounts it doesn't seem like anything serious.

[MakMan44]

Damn, Lars would be the only player I could get to sign something for me.


To be honest, that's what I thought too but I held out some hope that he would stick as a Sox. Guess not

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Beckett had an extremely shaky start today but settled down his final 3 innings for a decent outing. I'm still not sure what to make of him yet. He's looked ok, but just ok. I really hope even year Beckett doesn't show up this year.

Bailey had his first outing today and looked very rusty. Nothing to be surprised about, it was his first game. Hopefully he feels good and didn't injure anything and we'll see what he looks like next time out.

Ohlendorf had his first game action today as well and pitched pretty well over 2 innings. I just don't see where he fits on this roster unfortunately. If he wants to pitch in AAA he would be good bullpen depth in case of injury.

Melancon looked a lot better than last time out throwing a solid inning.

Atchison was terrible. I don't know why we hold onto this guy. He's not good. He looks like he's pushing 70 yrs old. Enough already.

Lavarnway made another run saving play at the plate today but let another one get by him. He's definitely improving as a defender. He's going to be tough to beat out next year.

Youks looked really bad at the plate today, and honestly hasn't looked that great through Spring training. Hopefully, he snaps out of it. It's only March though.

Aviles had another great day at the plate, I think at this point he's more or less our starting SS day 1. After the first couple months, who knows. I find it funny, that we now have two viable starters at short, when the general consensus before Spring training was that we had none.

Sweeney left the game early with a quad strain, hopefully nothing serious. If he goes down then the OF to start the season is going to be thin.

The tenth inning was pretty good. Nate Spears got on with a bunt single. *cough* small ball *cough* Ciriaco followed with an absolute bomb to left clearing everything. Ciriaco is having a pretty good Spring and you have to think he'd be in contention at this point to be a backup IF if any injuries were to occur.

[Trotsky]

Just, thanks. That's all.

[MikeM]

The thing that hurts Aceves chances is Doubront is out of options and Padilla might not take too well to the pen notwithstanding his words to the contrary. I think Doubront and Padilla would have to pitch pretty poorly for Aceves to get the 5th spot to open the season, although I would not be surprised to see him get the spot before the season ends if Melancon and Bailey are healthy and effective.

Yeah, i'm pretty much of the same mindset there.

On the SS front, it's great to see Aviles continue to look good with the bat.

The soon to be 33 year old (in a couple days here) Youk on the other hand is starting to make me a little nervous. Hard not to at least ponder the thought on how much a post-peak Youk on the downward slope of his career trajectory (with visions of a Troy Glaus-type exit dancing through my head) could/would dramatically change the current perception of this lineup.

[Trotsky]

Padilla can start in Pawtucket until the middle of May before he either needs to be added to the 25 man or released, so it does make some sense to start with Doubront as the no. 5 for as many starts as we can get him (perhaps even turning Bard into the "no. 5" just so we can skip a few early starts) to see how he fares and how Padilla is holding up....

At this point I'm seeing the roster as:

Lester
Beckett
Clay
Doubront
Bard
----
Gonzalez
Pedroia
Aviles
Youk
Sweeney
Ross
McDonald
Ellsbury
Ortiz
Punto
Shoppach
Saltlamacchia
---------------------
Bailey
Melancon
Aceves
Miller
?

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'd say that looks about right. I'd be happy with that rotation. The question marks would be who's the extra bench guy until Crawford is ready and whether or not we carry 11 or 12 pitchers. Bailey, Melancon, and Aceves are definites but after that the other 3 or 4 guys in the pen are kind of a toss up. I think Albers will be there so there's one, Morales maybe if he's healthy, Miller and Bowden would make sense because they're out of options but it really could go in any direction.

The soon to be 33 year old (in a couple days here) Youk on the other hand is starting to make me a little nervous. Hard not to at least ponder the thought on how much a post-peak Youk on the downward slope of his career trajectory (with visions of a Troy Glaus-type exit dancing through my head) could/would dramatically change the current perception of this lineup.

Had the same thought. I'm glad WMB has looked as good as he has...

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 13 March 2012 - 08:51 AM.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

Lars has no chance whatsoever of making this team unless A-Gon gets hurt. He's blocked at first by Gonzalez and he's not a better DH option than Lavarnway. He's a great prospect, but as Sampo said he's trade bait at this point and is probably going to net us a decent starting pitcher if he continues to look as good as he has.

Lars is 24 years old and had a .791 OPS last year in AAA. I like the way he looks too, but I have read that scouts think he pulls the ball too much and lacks good contact skill. We would have to combine him with somebody like Middlebrooks or Ranaudo to net a decent starting pitcher. Every team feels like they need another decent pitcher for their #5 spot, and when teams trade they have to both feel like they got something good, and that they gave up a little too much.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I agree somewhat, I didn't mean straight up Lars for "whoever", but if you're including Middlebrooks or Ranaudo we'd better be getting Felix Hernandez or at least Matt Garza. Hypothetically, of course. Lars plus, I don't know, Bowden could get us someone like Floyd, right?

[adam42381]

Lars is 24 years old and had a .791 OPS last year in AAA. I like the way he looks too, but I have read that scouts think he pulls the ball too much and lacks good contact skill. We would have to combine him with somebody like Middlebrooks or Ranaudo to net a decent starting pitcher. Every team feels like they need another decent pitcher for their #5 spot, and when teams trade they have to both feel like they got something good, and that they gave up a little too much.

An observation I've made from watching Lars take BP before 3 spring training games is that he is definitely working on hitting the ball to opposite field. He was pounding the wall in left yesterday and hit a few out as well. I'm sure he's well aware of the criticism and is trying to make the proper adjustments to make himself more marketable to other clubs.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

adam, you are correct, and I'm wrong. When I had more time I looked at SoxProspects and Lars hits well to the opposite field, and struggles pulling the ball. Don't know what I was thinking of.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

I agree somewhat, I didn't mean straight up Lars for "whoever", but if you're including Middlebrooks or Ranaudo we'd better be getting Felix Hernandez or at least Matt Garza. Hypothetically, of course. Lars plus, I don't know, Bowden could get us someone like Floyd, right?

I've always been pretty bad at predicting what it would take to get individual players, but I would bet that it would take alot more than Lars, WM, and Ranaudo to get Felix. If that package could get us Garza I would do it. A-Gon is blocking Lars; and Middlebrooks would be replaced in a year or two with either Xander Bogaerts or Garin Cecchini.

Gavin Floyd pitched 193 innings with a 4.37era (96era+) so I would think of him as a good definition of an average pitcher who can eat alot of innings. According to Cot's contracts he makes 7M this year, and he has a 9.5M club option for 2013. If I were running the White Sox I would want more than Lars and Bowden, because Lars isn't ready yet, and Bowden has been useless at the ML level. But if Chicago is struggling when July rolls around they might trade him for prospects.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I've always been pretty bad at predicting what it would take to get individual players, but I would bet that it would take alot more than Lars, WM, and Ranaudo to get Felix. If that package could get us Garza I would do it. A-Gon is blocking Lars; and Middlebrooks would be replaced in a year or two with either Xander Bogaerts or Garin Cecchini.

I wouldn't do all 3 for Garza. I think at this point WMB is the biggest chip we have and if Youks has an injury we may need him at third this year. He's too important to even consider, IMO, eventhough there may be others waiting in the wings.

Gavin Floyd pitched 193 innings with a 4.37era (96era+) so I would think of him as a good definition of an average pitcher who can eat alot of innings. According to Cot's contracts he makes 7M this year, and he has a 9.5M club option for 2013. If I were running the White Sox I would want more than Lars and Bowden, because Lars isn't ready yet, and Bowden has been useless at the ML level. But if Chicago is struggling when July rolls around they might trade him for prospects.

I threw out Bowden because he was the first name that came to mind. Someone who's just about ML ready along with Lars could get us Floyd I think. Lars could start next year when Konerko's gone. Just a thought.

[Xander]

I threw out Bowden because he was the first name that came to mind. Someone who's just about ML ready along with Lars could get us Floyd I think. Lars could start next year when Konerko's gone. Just a thought.

You really need to get realistic, oh my God.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

You really need to get realistic, oh my God.

C'mon man. I don't mind the criticism, but if you could add a little more depth it would be appreciated. Congrats on making your first post.

[Trotsky]

Bowden and Lars for Floyd doesn't seem too far fetched to me.... Floyd isn't exactly a top tier starter and he makes a bit more money than he's worth, IMO.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

Bowden and Lars for Floyd doesn't seem too far fetched to me.... Floyd isn't exactly a top tier starter and he makes a bit more money than he's worth, IMO.

I just can't imagine Chicago does this trade at the start of the season. They have Konerko and Dunn at 1B which would block Lars, so by trading away Floyd they would signal to their fan base that they are giving up before the season even starts. Not a good way to operate. The only way to get Floyd now would be to offer more than necessary. Better to wait until Chicago or some other team is failing in July and you can offer prospects for salary relief.

I do wonder what is going to become of Bowden. From what I understand, there is no room for him on the roster and he is out of options. Other teams know this and are probably offering very little in return.

[MikeM]

Bowden and Lars for Floyd doesn't seem too far fetched to me.... Floyd isn't exactly a top tier starter and he makes a bit more money than he's worth, IMO.

Floyd is due $7m in 2012, with a buyout-free $9.5m team option in 2013. Even given the recent market swing, and while that may indeed fall short of presenting some super bargain, he still brings a fairly solid asset value to the table. Hence the multiple and ongoing rumors we've been hearing about him all winter.

At this point, both Bowden and Lars amount to little more then fungible assets, who present little more then "throw-in" type appeal. Which more or less is like offering a hamburger in trade, minus the meat.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Floyd is due $7m in 2012, with a buyout-free $9.5m team option in 2013. Even given the recent market swing, and while that may indeed fall short of presenting some super bargain, he still brings a fairly solid asset value to the table. Hence the multiple and ongoing rumors we've been hearing about him all winter.

At this point, both Bowden and Lars amount to little more then fungible assets, who present little more then "throw-in" type appeal. Which more or less is like offering a hamburger in trade, minus the meat.

I agree that Bowden is more or less filler at this point and would be considered a "throw in", but Lars projects to be more than that. He's right on the cusp of being an everyday starter and is one of our top prospects. He was good enough to net us Rich Harden last year.

[Xander]

I agree that Bowden is more or less filler at this point and would be considered a "throw in", but Lars projects to be more than that. He's right on the cusp of being an everyday starter and is one of our top prospects. He was good enough to net us Rich Harden last year.

WTF are you talking about? Lars isn't a top prospect. He isn't on the cusp of anything except being officially labeled a AAAA player.

The A's were trading Harden because his shoulder was toast and they were getting Raul Alcantara, who was a MUCH bigger part of the trade than Lars.

You people know Floyd has had a much better than average FIP for each of the last 3 years right, and the $16.5 over 2 years is A MAJOR FREAKING BARGAIN, right?