220 replies to this topic

[drtooth]

Tampa over M's 3-2 in 12.

Eliot Johnson singled home the game winner. Carlos Pena and BJ Upton had 3 hits each. Upton and Sean Rodriguez drove in the other Rays' runs.

The big story was Longoria leaving the game with left knee soreness after an awkward slide trying to steal 2nd.

[Clears Cleaver]

Longoria out 6-8 weeks with a hamstring

[drtooth]

One potential call-up not in play. SS Tim Beckham (Rays 1st pick in 2008 Draft) has been suspended 50 games for his 2nd drug violation (drug of abuse per Marc Topkin)

[drtooth]

Rays top M's 3-1.

Matt Joyce tripled, homered and drove in 2 runs as TB only manages 3 hits. Luke Scott drove in the other run on a 1st inning SF. Matt Moore gets through 5 innings to get the win (7 H,1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). Fernando Rodney strikes out the side for his 8th save.

INF Will Rymes was called up from Durham. To make room on the 40 man roster, Kyle Farnsworth was moved to the 60 day DL.

[drtooth]

Tampa takes another from Seattle 5-4.

James Shields overcomes a 3-run 1st to go to 5-0 (6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 11 K). Sean Rodriguez (2-run HR) and Jose Molina each drove in 2 runs. Luke Scott added a solo HR. Joel Peralta earns his 1st save as Fernando Rodney gets a day off after 3 straight appearances. BJ Upton left the game after the 5th with tightness is his right quad.

[drtooth]

Rays sweep Seattle 4-3.

Tampa scores 4 in the 2nd on a 2-run HR by Jeff Keppinger and a 2-run triple by Desmond Jennings. Jeff Niemann goes to 2-3 (5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K). Fernando Rodney earns his 9th save.

[tbrep]

Hey, new guy here. TB fan, do some writing for some other sites on and off. Found this forum, love the quality analysis here.

Anyway, thought I'd share some thoughts on the Rays' pen thus far:

• Fernando Rodney is by far the most surprising member of the pen this year. He has earned 9 saves but more importantly has worked 12.1 innings with a microscopic ERA of 0.82 giving up only 6 hits to the 48 batters he has faced, striking out 25% while only walking 4.2%.
• J.P. Howell seems to have moved beyond the mental and physical fatigue exhibited last season and has returned to his old form. He has not allowed an earned run in 7 straight appearances and on the season he has only allowed a run in 1 of his 10 appearances. He has worked a total of 8.2 innings with an ERA of 2.02 and has struck out 26.3% of the batters he's faced while walking 10.5%. He has held left handed batters to a .235 average.
• Jake McGee got off to a rough start allowing at least one baserunner in each of his first 6 appearance but has since settled down to only allow 1 baserunner in his last 5 appearances. He has been called upon to face a tough lefty, Morneau, with the bases loaded, he worked a 9th inning through the heart of the Texas lineup, and against Seattle recently he retired 7 batters in just 29 pitches. Overall he has a record of 0-1 with an 2.45 ERA and has struck out 34.4% of the batters he's faced while walking 9.4%.
• Joel Peralta did not pitch winter ball and admitted that he was a bit dull with his command during his early seasons struggles. In his first 4 appearances he worked 2.1 innings giving up 7R/7ER while issuing more walks (4) then strike outs (3). The tide has shifted for Peralta who over his last 10 appearances has not been charged with an earned run (9.2IP), only allowed 3 hits while striking out 11 and walking 1.
• Badenhop has been a different pitcher at Tropicana Field where he has not allowed an earned run in 6.2 IP while giving up 8 ER in 5.1IP on the road. He has already allowed 3 HR this season (2.3 HR/9) after posting HR/9 rates of 0.6 in 2009, 0.7 in 2010, and 0.1 in 2011. Additionally, entering the 2012 season he had been much more effective vs RHB (FIP of 2.87) while struggling against LHB (FIP of 4.75). Thus far in 2012 that trend has been reversed and he has a FIP vs RHB of 7.09 and 3.46 vs LHB.
• Davis is still making the transition from starting pitcher to reliever and seems to be settling in to life in the pen. Prior to giving up a HR to Montero on Monday night Davis had not allowed an earned run in his prior 6 appearances. Davis has held RHB to a .208 average (5-24) while LHB are having more success .280 (7 for 25).
• Gomes had offseason back surgery and began the year in AAA Durham. Gomes has been used sparingly by Joe Maddon in 2012 only making 3 appearances and working 2 innings. Doesn't seem to be doing all that while in tonight's game either.

As shown in the table below, up to April 20th the Rays reliever had trouble commanding the strike zone and gave up a lot of runs.

After April 20th the Rays bullpen has reversed direction.

Of course, the starters settling in has no doubt helped.

[drtooth]

6 in a row . Tampa tops A's 7-2.

David Price goes to 5-1 with a dominant effort (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 12 K). Joel Peralta had to bail out Brandon Gomes, earning his 2nd by retiring 1 batter. BJ Upton, Luke Scott and Jose Molina (2-run HR) each drove in 2 runs. Matt Joyce drove in the other run.

[VORP Speed]

Hey, new guy here. TB fan, do some writing for some other sites on and off. Found this forum, love the quality analysis here.

From one lurker to another, welcome. Great info on the bullpen. It certainly seemed like the total meltdown vs the Sox was the low point for the Rays' pen and that it has really come around since then. Given the steady rise of the Rays over the last few years, perhaps SOSH could use an in-house Ray, jon abbey-style?

[tbrep]

Meanwhile, in the minors, SS Hak-Ju-Lee went 1-6 to drop his 2012 AA line to .230/.288/.311.

Disappointing considering he was the prized jewel in the Rays' farm system coming into the season. Mind you, it's still very early and he's young but add the start to the poor 114 PA he had in AA at the end of 2011, and there's some concern.

[drtooth]

Rays fall to A's 4-3 in 12 innings.

Tampa had to empty the pen as Jeremy Hellickson needed 102 pitches to record 11 outs. Joel Peralta gave up a HR to former Rays Jonny Gomes for the loss. TB gets solo HR's from Eliot Johnson, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Pena. Brandon Gomes was sent back to AAA after the game to bring up a fresh arm (TBD) from Durham.

[derekson]

Why didn't Zobrist play today?

[drtooth]

Rays fall to A's 9-5.

Matt Moore gives up 8 runs in 4.2 innings to fall to 1-2. Matt Joyce drove in 2 runs while BJ Upton (solo HR), Jeff Keppinger and Sean Rodriguez each had 1 RBI. Desmond Jennings left the game in the 3rd with left knee soreness.

[tbrep]

Much-needed pitching performance from Niemann, season-high in innings pitched. He does oddly well against NY and in Yankee stadium.

Usually, when he pitches well, the star is his curve. But today the curve took a back seat to his sinking, running two-seam fastball. It was a great pitch, generating whiffs, called strikes, and ground balls galore, and it was encouraging to see him be so effective in an unusual way.

I've sort of developed a theory that he loses a lot of effectiveness after 75 pitches, a purely observational hypothesis. Here's some data, based on his starts in 2010 and 2011 (52 in total).




In these starts, Niemann pitched at least five innings 81% of the time. He went a minimum of six innings in 67% of those games. Meanwhile, after the sixth inning there is a steep drop off. He completed seven innings just 37% of the time and pitched eight or more innings just five times. Obviously, can't be too definitive from these numbers alone, but it is worth watching.

Last night's game, I watched him extra closely after he got to 75 pitches in the sixth inning. Pitch 75 itself was a great changeup and part of a long at bat against Swisher that Niemann finally won. When he came back out in the seventh, it seemed that he had lost command of his curve. I'm not saying that he was tiring, and he did make it through the inning to bring his total to 102 pitches, but I don't think he was cruising in the 7th, either.

Edited by tbrep, 10 May 2012 - 03:55 AM.

[jon abbey]

From one lurker to another, welcome. Great info on the bullpen. It certainly seemed like the total meltdown vs the Sox was the low point for the Rays' pen and that it has really come around since then. Given the steady rise of the Rays over the last few years, perhaps SOSH could use an in-house Ray, jon abbey-style?

Definitely, both you guys should post more and I'm sure you'd become full members before too long.

[drtooth]

Tampa falls to O's 4-3

Joel Peralta gives up a 2-run HR to Nick Johnson in the 7th for the loss. Rays only manage 5 hits as Eliot Johnson and Carlos Pena each have 1 RBI.

OF Brandon Guyer was called for a 1 day personal leave for Jeff Keppinger. Brandon Allen has been placed on the DL with a quad issue

[tbrep]

Rays fall 5-3 to O's.

In short, the Rays made 5 errors in the game (!!), Moore couldn't locate his arsenal, and needed 101 pitches to record 13 outs, and the AAA lineup wasn't able to generate key hits.

Moore took the loss lasting only 4.1 innings (101 pitches/56 for strikes), giving up 4R/1ER, on 4 hits, while striking out 6 and walking 4. Although the errors really let him down, make no mistake: this was not a well-pitched game. He continually fell behind in the count (only 10/22 first pitch strikes) and his slow start continues.

Am I worried? Well, yes and no. On one hand, it's still very early and he's a notoriously slow starter (even in the minors). But it is worthwhile to note that, prior to last night's game:

• His breaking ball (slider) had been worth -1.3 runs. One look at the location and you can see why (too many middle and up). It doesn't help that he hasn't been getting borderline calls on brekaing balls just brushing the plate.

• What worries me a bit more is that his wFB is at -5.6, good for the fifth worst mark in the American League despite averaging over 94 mph on the pitch. Again, like his breaking ball, the problem is the location (mostly in the middle of the zone and up in the zone).

But not all is lost. Moore's problems are fixable. His stuff is still there. His velocity is still plus and his change-up has been deadly at +2.9 runs.

He reminds me a bit of Price: Both top prospects who dazzled in a small sample size the previous September and October.

Price then went on to post a 4.42 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and 4.43 xFIP, all career worsts, while posting also posting career worst K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and just about every other rate across the board.

The worry isn't that Moore won't be a frontline starter in the future. He will be. The issue is how much of a liability he will be in the rotation in what's meant to be an all-in year (especially with Davis and Cobb in the wings).

Edited by tbrep, 13 May 2012 - 05:06 AM.

[drtooth]

Rays survive to break 3 game losing streak 9-8 O's.

Eliot Johnson and Ben Zobrist hit back to back HR's in the 8th which ended up being the difference. They each had 3 hits with Zobrist driving in 3 and Johnson 2. Carlos pena also had 2 RBI. James Shields labored but raised his record to 6-1. Fernando Rodney earned his 10th save.

[AMS25]

Rays beat the Jays, 7-1. But, SP Jeff Niemann left the game with a fractured fibula. Looks like he'll be on the disabled list for a few months at the very least. Alex Cobb? Come on down?

[Saby]

Alex Cobb pitched tonight in Durham putting him on schedule to make Niemann's next spot this weekend against Atlanta.

This is a tough break. Niemann had been pitching well with a 3.13 FIP and 8.02 K/9 in six starts. Before this injury, he'd gone 5 IP in all of his starts (Shields is the only other Rays SP to do so). In all 6 starts he’d given up 3 ER or less. He’s also had the best BAA vs RHB in the AL.

On the sunnier side, Elliot Johnson of all people has been on some type of hot streak. Not known for his bat, Johnson was hitting .138/.265/.172 on May 4th. Coming into tonight's game he had improved that line to .264/.339/.415. He's now reached base 13 times in his past seven games. It's not something he's likely to maintain, but he's not a bad 25th man.

It's still a horrific-looking offense though. 6 of the runs tonight came in an error-aided inning.

Edited by Saby, 15 May 2012 - 01:35 AM.

[Saby]

And it looks like the Rays are looking to address the offense. They signed Ryan Garko to a minor league deal. Just looking at his profile page:

He was leading the Atlantic League with a 1.219 OPS this season, hitting .450/.535/.683 with four homers and 16 RBI.

He was last seen in the majors briefly in 2010, going 3-for-33 with the Rangers. He spent last year in Korea. He had his best season with the Indians in 2007, hitting .289/.359/.483 with 21 homers in 484 at-bats.

[tbrep]

The Rays' minor league bats had a nice night: Game winner for Lee, 2 triples and HR for Dietrich, another XBH for Kang, and a double and HR for Malm.

Dietrich, in particular, has looked promising. This is an updated report from Baseball America's Daily Dish:

"One bright spot has been high Class A Charlotte shortstop Derek Dietrich. The 21-year-old had his best game of the season today, hitting a home run and two triples in a 3-for-5 game that bumped his season line up to .273/.365/.484 in 34 games.
Dietrich, the Rays’ No. 13 prospect entering the season, has above-average power and ranks fifth in the Florida State League in slugging, and if he can keep the swing and miss in check, he could be an everyday infielder, though he’s a likely candidate to end up moving to second or third at some point."

[tbrep]

From the twitter feed of Marc Topkin:

#Rays make it official: Jennings to DL, Vogt called up. Is on way to Toronto.

[tbrep]

Rays get the win 4-3, and the offense continues to eek out just enough runs. They won't all show up in the boxscore as errors but Alvarez' defense really let him down in TB's 3-run inning. They execute, and it's probably 1-run at most.


Regarding Lawrie's AB, the awfulness of the calls is really exaggerated. Here was the game K zone (versus RHH):


The umpire being hit by beer on his way out was absolutely classless.

Good to see Molina's framing pay off. Though probably not enough to make up for his piss-poor hitting, and underwhelming pitch-blocking/steal-catching

Edit: Hmm, apparently file type isn't supported for the pitch map.

Edited by tbrep, 15 May 2012 - 11:02 PM.

[derekson]

Rays get the win 4-3, and the offense continues to eek out just enough runs. They won't all show up in the boxscore as errors but Alvarez' defense really let him down in TB's 3-run inning. They execute, and it's probably 1-run at most.


Regarding Lawrie's AB, the awfulness of the calls is really exaggerated. Here was the game K zone (versus RHH):


The umpire being hit by beer on his way out was absolutely classless.

Good to see Molina's framing pay off. Though probably not enough to make up for his piss-poor hitting, and underwhelming pitch-blocking/steal-catching

Edit: Hmm, apparently file type isn't supported for the pitch map.

Makes you wonder how much of Rodney's improvement is just Molina stealing calls for him on borderline pitches. If he's gaining that many strikes it will really cut into the walks, which have been his primary issue. Obviously this doesn't account for a majority of the improvement or anything, but might it be a significant factor?

[tbrep]

Makes you wonder how much of Rodney's improvement is just Molina stealing calls for him on borderline pitches. If he's gaining that many strikes it will really cut into the walks, which have been his primary issue. Obviously this doesn't account for a majority of the improvement or anything, but might it be a significant factor?

It's certainly a factor, but I think he has genuinely improved his control, particularly on his FB. His change has always been a phenomenal pitch but it isn't lethal if you're not locating the FB.

I was reading in an article that, as soon as they signed him, the Rays told Rodney they really wanted him to get back to throwing his plus-fastball in the strike zone and really focused on that during spring training. On occasion, for example, he would be forced to try and get through an inning only throwing his fastball on the outer edge of the plate (where he's been primarily working).

It seems to have worked. After four consecutive seasons where his FB was located over the plate less than 60% of the time, he'd gotten that to 67% coming into last night's game. And that's really the key. He had his best season in 2007 with the Tigers when his FB was over the plate 68% of the time (career high), posting a 9.6K/9 and a 3.7BB/9.

Of course, it's helped that, according to Hickey, Rodney had been open to anything the team suggested in terms of tweaking his positioning on the mound and his use of different pitches.

[drtooth]

Rays acquire OF Rich Thompson from the Phillies for minor league OF Kyle Hudson

[drtooth]

Brandon Guyer went on the DL with a shoulder strain. Looks like Thompson was acquired because the Rays needed a CF, according to Friedman, To make room for Thompson on the 40 man roster, Jeff Niemann has been placed on the 60-day DL.

[tbrep]

With Rhymes about to be the 10th Ray on the DL, Beckham's suspension is really hurting now.

[tbrep]

An incredible stat ( BABIP fueled or not)

Jeremy Hellickson has now made 41 career starts. He’s allowed more than 3 runs in 4 of them.

[tbrep]

Another loss to a LHP.

That, I believe, is the biggest downside to having Longoria and Jennings out. Their defense can be covered for and even their offense can be replaced to a degree against RHP but, without them, this lineup is horrid against LHP.

VS LHP
Name PA wOBA wRC+
Longoria 31 .542 260
Keppinger 35 .405 165
Jennings 34 .377 145
Gimenez 28 .367 139
E. Johnson 34 .362 135
S Rodriguez 41 .344 122
Upton 33 .340 120
Pena 59 .318 105
Joyce 38 .281 79
Zobrist 53 .275 75
Molina 12 .262 66
Scott 46 .241 44
Rhymes 16 .045 -84

[drtooth]

Rays fall to Braves 5-3.

James Shields falls to 6-2 with a meh effort (6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 8 K, WP). Luke Scott (3 H, 2 RBI) and Eliot Johnson (2 H, RBI) paced the offense as they drove in the TB runs and had 5 of their 7 hits.

[drtooth]

Rays take game 2 from Braves 5-2.

Matt Joyce's 3rd inning grand slam puts the Rays ahead to stay. Sean Rodriguez adds a solo HR as Tampa manages only 6 hits. Alex Cobb gets the win in his 1st start since getting called up to fill in for the injured Jeff Niemann (7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K). Fernando Rodney earns his 13th save.

[drtooth]

Rays offense struggles in 2-0 loss to Braves.

Tampa manages 18 hits in 3 game series with Atlanta. David Price gets the loss to fall to 6-3 (7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K)

[drtooth]

Rays acquire Drew Sutton from the Pirates for a PTBNL. Jeff Keppinger to the DL with a broken right big toe. To make room on the 40 man roster, LHP John Gaub has been DFA'd

[drtooth]

Rays fall to Jays 6-2.

Offense struggles again as Tampa manages only 5 hits and only 2 runs, in spite of 6 walks by Kyle Drabek. BJ Upton's gets a 1st inning HR when he hits the catwalk, Sean Rodriguez drove in the other TB runs. Jeremy Hellickson falls to 4-1 with the loss.

[drtooth]

Rays offense comes alive in 8-5 win over Jays.

Carlos Pena hit a 3-run HR in the 4th to help pace the scoring as he hit leadoff (3 hits). Luke Scott and BJ Upton each homered. Chris Gimenez drove in 2 and Drew Sutton drove in 1. Wade Davis gets his 1st win of the year and Fernando Rodney earns his 14th save.

[drtooth]

BJ Upton doubles home Rich Thompson in the 11th to give Tampa a 5-4 win over Toronto. Old friend Drew Sutton drove in 2 runs while Matt Joyce and Luke Scott each drove in 1. Jake McGee gets the win.

[drtooth]

Rays fall to ChiSox 2-1.

Matt Moore falls to 1-5 despite striking out 10 in 7 innings. TB manages just 3 hits as Jose Lobaton drives in the only run

[VORP Speed]

Rays called up Matsui from AAA, even though he hadn't really been producing very much down there. Getting thrown right into the fire tonight. The line-up the Rays have been trotting out since their rash of injuries has been downright abysmal. It's pretty impressive that their pitching (and shifting??) is so solid as to have kept them playing pretty decent ball with such a pathetically weak offense of late. Is there such a thing as "negative baseball"? If so, Maddon seems to have turned into the Jose Mourinho of MLB.

[drtooth]

Rays fall to White Sox 7-2.

A 5 run 6th does in James Shields (6-3) and the Rays (6 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 error). Only Tampa runs score on a 4th inning 2 -run HR by just called by Hideki Matsui.

[AMS25]

Not sure what it is with the Rays and enforcing baseball's unwritten rules. On Tuesday, White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski slid hard through the second base bag, where Ben Zobrist was stationed. Today, Rays pitcher Alex Cobb hit Pierzynski with a pitch in the back in the third. Then, White Sox pitcher Jose Quintana threw a pitch behind the legs of Zobrist in his fourth-inning at-bat, and got tossed. So, a retalitatory pitch in the back is OK, but a retaliatory pitch behind the legs is not.... OK. Well, it's good to know that the Rays enjoy making enemies of other AL teams, too.

[Saby]

Not sure what it is with the Rays and enforcing baseball's unwritten rules. On Tuesday, White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski slid hard through the second base bag, where Ben Zobrist was stationed. Today, Rays pitcher Alex Cobb hit Pierzynski with a pitch in the back in the third. Then, White Sox pitcher Jose Quintana threw a pitch behind the legs of Zobrist in his fourth-inning at-bat, and got tossed. So, a retalitatory pitch in the back is OK, but a retaliatory pitch behind the legs is not.... OK. Well, it's good to know that the Rays enjoy making enemies of other AL teams, too.

Umm, they didn't even respond to the Red Sox. Not sure what you're on about here. It was the Red Sox enforcing "baseball's unwritten rules" by trying to hit Scott 3 times and getting him on the 4th, after which the reliever was still not ejected. This, after a HBP by Pedroia that could hardly have been intentional. But I think karma came through there with Dustin looking to be out for a month.

The slide to Zobrist was actually rather dangerous, went way past the bag. And they didn't respond last night even with the chance in a 5-run game. This is not something unusual, don't make it out to be.

[AMS25]

Umm, they didn't even respond to the Red Sox. Not sure what you're on about here. It was the Red Sox enforcing "baseball's unwritten rules" by trying to hit Scott 3 times and getting him on the 4th, after which the reliever was still not ejected. This, after a HBP by Pedroia that could hardly have been intentional. But I think karma came through there with Dustin looking to be out for a month.

The slide to Zobrist was actually rather dangerous, went way past the bag. And they didn't respond last night even with the chance in a 5-run game. This is not something unusual, don't make it out to be.

Hmm...technically, you're right that the Rays didn't respond with force to the Sox, but Joe Maddon certainly made some threatening sounds. But, no worries. Chippy or not, the Rays lost today anyway, 4-3, despite Quintana's ejection.

[drtooth]

TB falls to Chicago again 4-3.

The offense goes to sleep as they manage only 4 hits, scoring on a Luke Scott 2nd inning solo HR and a 6th inning Carlos Pena 2-run shot. Alex Cobb gets the loss.

[tbb345]

I don't know how anyone could defend this team and their smarmy asshole of a manager. They start stuff then when the other team retaliates they (more specifically Maddon) go to the press and bitch and moan about how dangerous what the other team did was while completely excusing themselves from what they did (IE Matt Moore drilling Gonzalez after the retweet by David Price, no problem there but if anyone throws at St. Joe's team they are automatically dirty and ruining the integrity of baseball).

[VORP Speed]

I don't know how anyone could defend this team and their smarmy asshole of a manager.

I thought the Blaming Bobby thread had been locked??

[drtooth]

Sad note. Marc Topkin, beat writer for the Tampa Bay Times, lost his 21 year old son Ben on Monday.

[drtooth]

Rays shut down O's 5-0.

Tampa scores all their runs in the 1st, capped off by Hideki Matsui's 2-run HR. Luke Scot drove in 2 and Sean Rodriguez drove in 1. David Price goes to 7-3 with 7.1 strong innings. Fernando Rodney got out of a bases loaded situation created by Burke Badenhop to earn his 17th save.

[drtooth]

Tampa falls to Baltimore 2-1.

Not exactly an offensive explosion as the O's mange 4 hits and the Rays 2. Jeremy Hellickson falls to 4-2 as he allows 1 ER in 6.1 IP. Drew Sutton drives in the only TB run