798 replies to this topic

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Since July, it's become a generally accepted fact on this board that the 2012 NBA draft is going to be on of the deepest drafts of the last decade.

Looking at the pool of players though, I just don't see how this draft is any deeper than your average NBA draft. Now, admittedly, I haven't watched as much college basketball this year as I have in years past, and a lot of the college basketball I do watch involves my Mid-American Conference alma mater, but I've made it a point to catch some of the top prospects and I just haven't been that impressed.

At the top, Anthony Davis is a great player, and I have no doubt that he'll be a great NBA player. But beyond that, who are the sure things in this draft? What am I missing? Who are the guys that make this draft so deep?

[jon abbey]

Chad Ford just wrote an Insider column last week how it's much less deep than it looked a few months ago, let me dig that up and post a quote.

[jon abbey]

OK, this is from 2/24:

"But as we enter the last week of February, NBA executives are rushing to downgrade the draft.
"Everyone talks about how great this draft is," one NBA GM told ESPN.com. "On paper in July, it really looked that way. On the ground in February, I'm not that impressed. Anthony Davis is great. But after that, there are a lot of question marks and a surprising lack of depth. I'm not sure that the 2012 draft will be better than the 2011 one.""

http://insider.espn....crop-looks-bust

[jon abbey]

A few more short quotes for those who can't read that:

"Of the returning collegians, only three -- Robinson, Zeller and Damian Lillard -- have lived up to or exceeded expectations."

"Really, just two freshmen, Kidd-Gilchrist and Indiana's Cody Zeller, have exceeded expectations."

And today Kidd-Gilchrist swears he will stay in school:

http://basketball.re...ond_This_Season

[ifmanis5]

Hard to put a lot of stock in draft predictions since most experts dubbed the last few drafts as thin and below average. Turned out they were deeper and better than predicted.

[Brickowski]

It's certainly true that some of the highly touted guys have underperformed-- starting with Andre Drummond. But it's also true that there could be some absolute gems who are currently projected to be second rounders. Maybe one of those is Lima, the young Brazilian PF currently playing in Spain.

It's a draft in which an astute evaluator could make a real killing, but a less astute one could get hosed. As for what anonymous NBA gms say from now until draft night, it's all self-serving and mostly smoke.

[collings94]

I never trust what experts say about the NBA draft, so it's hard to judge how deep a draft is. Also, the college season isn't over, and until tournament time it's hard to judge players on how they handle big time pressure.

The main reason everyone assumes that this draft is deep is because a lot of players that would have come out last year (Sullinger, Terrence Jones) stayed in school because they were worried about the lockout.

[nighthob]

Most drafts have two or three cornerstone players and that's it. And most lottery teams pray that they either win so that they get a shot at one or that one lands in their lap because someone drafting 1/2/3 just had to have the big goofy white guy from overseas. After that you're just praying that you land a starter, in the lottery. After the lottery you're praying that whoever you draft can play in an NBA rotation, and most drafts produce only 20-25 guys that ever manage to outlast their rookie deals.

When we say a draft is "deep" we don't mean that there are all stars falling out of the trees, because that pretty much never happens. Even the best draft of the last decade (EDIT: 2003) produced four cornerstone guys, a few starters of varying quality, and then a buttload of roleplayers of varying quality. The only better draft you can find in the last couple of decades is '96. And even that draft only produced four cornerstone players (or six depending on how highly you value Starbury and pre-injuries Jermaine O'Neal).

What we mean is that you're going to get more than a couple of dozen players that have NBA careers and more decent starters than the usual 5-10 (or that at the very least the number of starters is at the high end of the scale rather than the normal one) and that your odds of finding a guy in the second round that has an NBA career are considerably higher than the normal lottery ticket. For example, we draftniks tend to refer to 2005 as a deep draft, despite the fact that it produced no more cornerstone players than normal (three if you think Bynum's a real cornerstone), but it did produce 30 NBA players of varying productivity that are still in the league.

So when I say that 2012 is a deep draft, what I'm saying is that I think a significant number of the high school class of '11 declares, and that there are going to be a lot of NBA players chosen. Of course, if the class of 2011 doesn't declare then all bets are off, because the class of '10 wasn't near as good.

Edited by nighthob, 29 February 2012 - 03:45 PM.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

It's a draft in which an astute evaluator could make a real killing, but a less astute one could get hosed.

Agreed entirely, though I'll throw in the whole luck factor/inexact science/ don't have a crystal ball type rhetoric. As you alluded to, I think this is gonna be a draft where in hindsight there will be a ton of busts and steals with similar depth to the '08 draft. Take a guy like like John Henson-- Could be Tyrus Thomas with a brain and a semblance of an offensive game, like maybe a poor man's KG. Could be a tweener bench player with obvious flaws. It's really hard to say. Arnett Moultrie, Quincy Miller, and Kendall Marshall are all over the board in various mock drafts.

Seems like the type of draft where a team could really benefit from getting 3 picks and swinging for the fences.

[nighthob]

The thing to remember with Miller is that this is first year post-knee surgery. So one thing GMs are struggling with here is getting a proper read on his athleticism because with reconstructive surgery it generally takes 12 months or so for complete recovery. With Miller that gives GMs two problems to properly evaluate (does he recover fully from surgery and will the resulting athleticism translate to the NBA?). He's one of those lottery ticket type players that some team in the 8-15 range could hit the jackpot on.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

The thing to remember with Miller is that this is first year post-knee surgery. So one thing GMs are struggling with here is getting a proper read on his athleticism because with reconstructive surgery it generally takes 12 months or so for complete recovery. With Miller that gives GMs two problems to properly evaluate (does he recover fully from surgery and will the resulting athleticism translate to the NBA?). He's one of those lottery ticket type players that some team in the 8-15 range could hit the jackpot on.

True, and he seems passive to me even as a freshman on an established top team. That could be his game naturally in a good way, or to a fault. Or it could be due to the injury. Very nebulous.

[Brickowski]

Speaking of sleepers, do any of you New Yorkers have an opinion on Maurice Harkless, the kid from St. Johns via the South Kent School (the same school that produced Dorrell Wright)? From the numbers it looks like he can't shoot but does everything else fairly well.

Edited by Brickowski, 29 February 2012 - 04:17 PM.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

Just some random thoughts on who may be around when the C's pick: Rivers seems to be the consensus collectively in the mocks ( I guess for obvious reasons ). I don't hate that at all. I think he'll wind up a legit 20 ppg 2 guard in the NBA with the chance of being a PG ( Maybe kinda like Bibby ). I could live with Henson. Of course he needs to put on some serious heft but even if he's always really lean I think he'll still be capable of making an impact on both ends of the court. He would need to play next to a Perk like enforcer.

With the Clipps pick I'd be thrilled if Jeffrey Taylor were still on the board. I don't understand why he isn't higher in most mocks. He's got legit 3 size and length, he's athletic, a great defender, and a good shooter. He'll probably wind up expanding his range out to 3 point land. If he were the #1 or 2 option on your team, you'd be screwed, but I think he's capable of being the starting SF on a championship team. Even next year. I like Doron Lamb as well. I think concerns about his size are overblown. For a guy projected to go late teens, that seems like pretty good value.

Edit: Just looked at various mocks and didn't see Rivers going to C's. Oh well, I thought I did at some point. I mean, people have speculated about it and I like his game.

Edited by Kutcher Era Youth, 01 March 2012 - 10:38 PM.

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Just some random thoughts on who may be around when the C's pick: Rivers seems to be the consensus collectively in the mocks ( I guess for obvious reasons ). I don't hate that at all. I think he'll wind up a legit 20 ppg 2 guard in the NBA with the chance of being a PG ( Maybe kinda like Bibby ). I could live with Henson. Of course he needs to put on some serious heft but even if he's always really lean I think he'll still be capable of making an impact on both ends of the court. He would need to play next to a Perk like enforcer.

With the Clipps pick I'd be thrilled if Jeffrey Taylor were still on the board. I don't understand why he isn't higher in most mocks. He's got legit 3 size and length, he's athletic, a great defender, and a good shooter. He'll probably wind up expanding his range out to 3 point land. If he were the #1 or 2 option on your team, you'd be screwed, but I think he's capable of being the starting SF on a championship team. Even next year. I like Doron Lamb as well. I think concerns about his size are overblown. For a guy projected to go late teens, that seems like pretty good value.

Edit: Just looked at various mocks and didn't see Rivers going to C's. Oh well, I thought I did at some point. I mean, people have speculated about it and I like his game.

I like Taylor too. He's actually one of the top 3 point shooters in the SEC (currently 4th at 46.5%). In the games I've seen, he's done a little bit of everything for Vandy. He reminds me of a more athletic Jared Dudley. He won't carry your team, but he can definitely contribute. He struggles to create his own shot, struggles at the FT line and doesn't have a great handle. But I love his athleticism, defense and spot up shooting ability. Definitely a guy I'd like to target with that Clippers pick. I don't think he's got huge upside, but if he did he wouldn't be around to take with that pick.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Gotta think Austin stays in school after tonight.

[dolomite133]

Gotta think Austin stays in school after tonight.

For Doc's sake I hope he does. He really needs to spend another year at Duke deciding what kind of guard he's going to be. If he wants to be a point guard he has a lot of work to do.

[EL Jeffe]

Even next year. I like Doron Lamb as well. I think concerns about his size are overblown. For a guy projected to go late teens, that seems like pretty good value.

I like D. Lamb quite a bit too for the LAC pick. Supposedly he measured in at 6'5" in shoes, which is fine for a 2. He's not explosive, but he can shoot and has a smooth game. For the Boston pick, I kind of like Tyler Zeller. I know his functional strength sucks, especially for his age, but everything else is there. Hands, touch, basketball IQ. Plus, he seems like a big you can run a play for, which is rare. If he's gone, I'm in the minority, but I like Terrence Jones. Th Employee #8 comparisons don't seem quite right, and even if they were, you can do a lot worse than an Antoine Walker type in the mid 1st round. Jones is pretty explosive and the talent is there; it's just a question of working like a professional.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

I like the idea of T. Jones with the C's pick. I don't really see the Walker comp outside of height, position, and college. I feel like 'Toine could have been a 2nd option on a championship team, and Jones offensive game seems more rigid and mechanical. Conversely, I doubt with Jones there'd be many moments where I'd exclaim " What the fuck! Why did he shoot it from there? There was 16 seconds on the shotclock! " That said, I think he could be an awesome role player and I don't mean that in a bad way. Kinda like a Verajao type with a little more scoring ability and athleticism. I just don't think he has the handle to beat most PF's off the dribble like Walker used to.

I also like to work "I" into almost every sentence.

Draft Jones and Lamb, sign Walter McCarty and bring in either Calipari, Tubby Smith or Pitino.

[Brickowski]

I'd not be hasty about jumping to conclusions about players whose teams were eliminated early. Or about catching "Bryce Drew fever" and assuming that guys who shine in the NCAA tournament will become good pros.

Edited by Brickowski, 18 March 2012 - 07:24 AM.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

I'd not be hasty about jumping to conclusions about players whose teams were eliminated early. Or about catching "Bryce Drew fever" and assuming that guys who shine in the NCAA tournament will become good pros.

Is this in reference to Jed's Rivers post, or just a general statement? Or both? If it's specific to Rivers, I agree. I think he'll declare and am fearful he won't be around when the C's pick. I think he's arguably the best pure scorer in the draft, on par with Barnes and Lamb.

Cody Zeller is projected to enter this draft in some mocks, and not in others. He's interesting, because he looks like he could be great. It's just that I'm apprehensive about drafting a player that the majority of the fan base could beat up if they had to. He's only legally an adult. He needs to add, like, 50 pounds. I could see him being drafted, stashed at the end of a bench, and not being heard from for 3 years.

[Brickowski]

No, it was a general statement. There were lots of teams eliminated early with players projected by many to go in the first round: Duke (Rivers, Plumlee), UConn (Drummond, Lamb), Vanderbilt (Taylor), etc.

[gammoseditor]

Chad Ford's first mock draft is up and a couple of things stuck out to me. First, the write ups for all of these guys make it seem like this is an excellent draft. Second, I thought someone in the post deadline thread mentioned that Utah had traded their first round pick. According to Ford not only do they have their own pick but they also have Golden State's pick. If we're going to start the rebuilding process then Rondo for 9 and 14 would be a great start.


http://insider.espn....draft-version-1

edit for link (insider only)

Edited by gammoseditor, 20 March 2012 - 04:53 PM.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

Chad Ford's first mock draft is up and a couple of things stuck out to me. First, the write ups for all of these guys make it seem like this is an excellent draft. Second, I thought someone in the post deadline thread mentioned that Utah had traded their first round pick. According to Ford not only do they have their own pick but they also have Golden State's pick. If we're going to start the rebuilding process then Rondo for 9 and 14 would be a great start.


http://insider.espn....draft-version-1

edit for link (insider only)

Golden State's pick is top 7 protected, otherwise Jazz get it. Jazz's pick is lotto protected, so basically Jazz could wind up with 2,1,or zero lottery picks depending on how everything shakes out.

[ifmanis5]

Son of Doc is in...

Duke freshman guard Austin Rivers will declare for the NBA draft, sources said Friday.
He will make the formal announcement next week after spending the weekend at home in Orlando.
CBSSports.com reported earlier Friday that Rivers was planning to enter the draft.
The Blue Devils' staff knew in the latter part of the season that Rivers was going to leave, multiple sources with direct knowledge at Duke told ESPN.com.

http://espn.go.com/n...aft-sources-say

[Jed Zeppelin]

Happy to have guessed wrong.

I really don't see the C's drafting Austin, but every eligible player that declares is a good thing.

Edited by Jed Zeppelin, 23 March 2012 - 02:08 PM.

[Kutcher Era Youth]

I wonder how much that Napier guy hurt Lamb and Drummond's stock. He basically dominated the ball, and he's like a poor man's Marbury. I mean that in the least flattering way possible.

[ivanvamp]

Mock draft here: http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

They have the C's drafting #17 and #24.

#17 - Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina. Interesting. Because three other guys that go in this mock draft shortly after Zeller are: Terrence Jones of Kentucky, Dion Waiters of Syracuse, and Jeffrey Taylor of Vanderbilt. Of these four, which guy do you guys think would make the most sense for the Celtics? I could see the case for any of them.

#24 - Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure. If they go big with Zeller at #17, I'd rather they pick up John Jenkins (6'4", 205 lbs, SG, Vanderbilt) instead of Nicholson. Jenkins probably was the best shooter in the country this year. He has good size for a 2, and has unbelievable range. Could be a terrific replacement for Ray Allen (not saying he'll become a hall-of-famer).

#40 - Jeff Withey, C, Kansas - Another 7-footer? Might as well draft two of them, I guess, and hope that one of them pans out.

#47 - Jae Crowder, F, Marquette - Best player in the Big East this year, 6'6" of solid muscle. Can post, drive, or shoot. Tough as nails. Would love to have this guy in a Celtics' uniform...he brings so much to the table.

If the Celtics ended up with a draft of Zeller, Jenkins, Withey, and Crowder, I'd be thrilled beyond measure. With Rondo and the emerging Avery Bradley, the PG spot is in good hands. Adding shooters, tough wing players, and some pretty skilled bigs...that's a nice use of 4 draft picks.

[Brickowski]

For comparison purposes, here is the current DraftExpress mock. Usually the DraftExpress mock is quite good, although they need to update this one. For starters, Drummond is too high.
http://www.draftexpr...ock-draft/2012/

I'm guessing that the real value in the second round is going to be from overseas, not guys like Withey and Crowder.

Edited by Brickowski, 26 March 2012 - 12:07 PM.

[dolomite133]

For comparison purposes, here is the current DraftExpress mock. Usually the DraftExpress mock is quite good, although they need to update this one. For starters, Drummond is too high.
http://www.draftexpr...ock-draft/2012/

I'm guessing that the real value in the second round is going to be from overseas, not guys like Withey and Crowder.

BTW I posted links to several mock drafts in the Celtics offseason thread.

[TheRooster]

A couple of quick thoughts after engaging with college hoops briefly via the tourney. Drummond should send Bynum 50% of his first contract. Based on accomplishements he'd be undrafted. I get the potential and it certainly panned out for AB, but boy he's got a long way to go. Royce White seems way undervalued. I half-expected to find out that he was a Huggins-esque 24, but those sites claim he is only 20. He's a lot more likely to be an All-Star than either Zeller or eithe Plumlee. Finally, those sites have Sullinger listed at 6-9 and 6-10, but id guess he tops out at 6-7.

[TheDeuce222]

Good news for the Celts, via tweet from Paul Flannery:

"Paul Flannery ‏ @Pflanns
The Celtics will have the 21st and 22nd picks in this year's draft. The 22nd pick is from the Clippers via OKC, completing the Perk trade."

Clippers "won" the lottery with the Hawks, so even though Atlanta winning a few games in the last week or so was a bummer re: home court, the Clippers pick improved by about three spots this week, and the Celts will be in the enviable position of having back to back picks. We could potentially try to move up, but if we stand pat, I like the Celts to look at Arnett Moultrie and Dion Waiters. Think Moultrie could help a lot on the glass and is a bit stronger than JaJuan Johnson right now. Waiters could be a great sixth man, having a lot of comfort in that role, and would be comfortable playing off guard with Rondo, or sharing the pg duties with Bradley when Rondo is on the bench. After the Patriots' first round, hoping the Celts can get two young guys ready to contribute as well.

[JakeRae]

Good news for the Celts, via tweet from Paul Flannery:

"Paul Flannery ‏ @Pflanns
The Celtics will have the 21st and 22nd picks in this year's draft. The 22nd pick is from the Clippers via OKC, completing the Perk trade."

Clippers "won" the lottery with the Hawks, so even though Atlanta winning a few games in the last week or so was a bummer re: home court, the Clippers pick improved by about three spots this week, and the Celts will be in the enviable position of having back to back picks. We could potentially try to move up, but if we stand pat, I like the Celts to look at Arnett Moultrie and Dion Waiters. Think Moultrie could help a lot on the glass and is a bit stronger than JaJuan Johnson right now. Waiters could be a great sixth man, having a lot of comfort in that role, and would be comfortable playing off guard with Rondo, or sharing the pg duties with Bradley when Rondo is on the bench. After the Patriots' first round, hoping the Celts can get two young guys ready to contribute as well.

Why is having back to back picks enviable?

[dolomite133]

With those two picks we can definitely fill out the end of our bench.

Barring an unlikely trade, this team pretty much guaranteed they won't improve much via the draft. Of course Danny could make a move but, based on his trade deadline experience, it seems like he's light on leverage. Maybe the team with the 16th pick wants to move down for 21 and 22?

[TheDeuce222]

Why is having back to back picks enviable?

Just because they can target five or six players they want in that range, and be able to get two at the same time, rather than taking 1 at pick 21, and then sweating it out for three more picks hoping the second guy will drop to #25. Always think it's nice to be able to take two back to back. Worked out pretty well for Ainge with Delonte West and Tony Allen in the 04 draft. Not especially enviable, but I would rather have two in a row than 21 and 25, that's for sure.

As for the point about 16 for 21 and 22, seems like not nearly far enough to move to give up two picks in a deep draft. Ainge had some bad mis-hits at the end of the first round in the last few years, sure, but he has picked up Jefferson at 15, Perkins at 27, Rondo at 21, Bradley at 19, Delonte and Tony at 24 and 25, not to mention Davis at 32. That's two all-stars, one very promising young guy, and four very solid rotation guys all right in that range or below. So to say that it is "guaranteed" they won't improve via the draft sounds pretty pessimistic. They might not improve right away, but there should definitely be a way to get a couple potentially good players.

Edited by TheDeuce222, 27 April 2012 - 05:41 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Bump for the lottery tonight. Any chance Brooklyn doesn't jump to the top 3 to activate the protection on their pick?

[Mystic Merlin]

Yes, in fact there's a 74.8% chance.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Oh, I thought this was the conspiracy forum.

[Nomar813]

Leave it to ESPN to turn a lottery that has already been conducted into a half hour for TV. They used to do these as part of halftime during Sunday afternoon games.

[Ed Hillel]

Are the Cavs mocking LeBron by having a kid with MS wear those glasses?

[Ed Hillel]

The # 1 pick goes to...the MIAMI HEAT

[axx]

The # 1 pick goes to...the MIAMI HEAT

Don't give him any ideas!!

[Nomar813]

The # 1 pick goes to...the MIAMI HEAT

[Ed Hillel]

Well, there's the other conspiracy team.

[Mystic Merlin]

Why is he being congratulated? What'd he do?

[Red Averages]

Ladies and Gentleman, your Charlotte Bobcats!

[Greenwell982]

Lesson to all the teams out there- tanking gets you nowhere!

[Ed Hillel]

There was really no suspense there, was there? It had to be New Orleans once they jumped into the top 3.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Whoops, I picked the wrong conspiracy.

[Mystic Merlin]

This is the stupidest fucking half hour of the year.

'Anthony, have you given some thought to bisecting that unibrow?'

Edited by Mystic Merlin, 30 May 2012 - 07:25 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

That's not karma.