48 replies to this topic

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

So now that ST is in full affect a lot of questions have come up , some old ones have been answered and some surprises have forced there way into the conversation. Most if not all have to do with the pitching and roster construction.

I started this thread to keep tabs on the different front runners for roles and injury/mechanics related issues concerning the pitchers only

The questions are who will start, who will be in the pen and who will be stashed at Pawtucket for depth.

Some of the facts

1. Bobby Valentine has stated that he will carry 12 pitchers to start the season...

2. Felix Doubront has shown up in tremendous shape and looks like a completely different person if you've seen video. He is also out of options.

3. Andrew Miller is said to be throwing 96 to 99mph with hard sink, he has worked extensively with pitching coach Bob Mclure who is said to have identified some problems which have lead to Miller's lack of command....Miller is also out of options.

4. Vincente Padilla has been very impressive so far by all accounts, he had a very good offseason and appears motivated. Reports have been of a 96mph fastball mixing with the big slow curve making for a nasty combination. Vincente has stated that he would most likely ask for his release/trade if he doesn't win a rotation spot. This would also mean he probably has no interest in going to Pawtucket for depth.

5. Daniel Bard has also looked good in the rotation and no one is even questioning whether he will start the season as the 4th starter or not. Extremely poor results or injury in ST would be the only factor that might lead to a return to the bullpen.

6. Tazawa looks to be concentrating on a relief role.

7. Michael Bowden is also out of options, but may not have the affectiveness or stuff to remain on the MLB roster... This poses a problem because he would make good bullpen depth, but can't be outrighted to the minors.


So I see two or three bullpen spots open to competition and one rotation spot.... AAA depth is also very important especially after last season's end and a mix of aging veterans and return from injury in the rotation.

My opinion is that the 5th starter spot has two front-runners Dubrount and Padilla

I also think that 2 lefties will be kept (with Morales a lock to be one)

Obviously a lot of things will work themselves out through the natural attrition of ST. I think the DL will be used "creatively" this season especially to begin the year, but how far can that be pushed?

trying to narrow things down what are the opinions out there of who will be the last handful of pitchers on the roster?

[amfox1]

I don't see this as being too difficult.

Starters - Beckett, Lester^, Buchholz, Padilla, Bard (5th starter to save innings) (DL/rehab: Matsuzaka - shooting toward 6/1 return, 60 day DL: Lackey)

Relievers - Bailey (closer), Melancon, Albers, Morales^, Miller^, Doubront^, Aceves (swingman) (DL/rehab: Hill^, 60 day DL: Jenks, gone: Bowden)

AAA starters - Cook, Silva, Wilson, Duckworth, Mortensen (DL/rehab: Ohlendorf)

AAA relievers - Carpenter, Atchison, Tazawa, among others

^LH

[pokey_reese]

I agree with amfox 1 in terms of how this is likely to shake out. I think that the best-case scenario would be keeping Miller and Doubront stretched out, and maybe the only change I would make to his breakdown would be to make one of them the swingman instead of Aceves. Probably that would be Doubront, given his platoon splits in the past and thus making Miller more of a lefty specialist given his trouble with RHH.

It's tough to see how Bowden has a spot unless we see something drastically better out of him this spring and one of Miller/Doubront really disappoints.

That said, I am really excited about the possibility of an effective Miller, even if it is just as a situational lefty. Mclure could pretty much justify his entire contract if he can just fix Miller.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Here we go again, getting sucked into believing Andrew Miller, who has never been an effective pitcher, suddenly will be. I guess it doesn't hurt to start the season with him, but having three lefties in the pen seems redundant to me. I think you need another power righty; or at the very least use Doubront or Miller as a long man, with Aceves in a more traditional set-up role.

[mwonow]

If Tazawa is in Pawtucket, shouldn't he be starting rather than relieving? If he gets called up, it seems more likely that it will be for a spot start (or a string of injury-replacement starts), rather than as a spare piece in the bullpen...

[dbn]

Here we go again, getting sucked into believing Andrew Miller, who has never been an effective pitcher, suddenly will be.

Are you willfully ignoring the fact that he is in the best shape of his life?

[pokey_reese]

Here we go again, getting sucked into believing Andrew Miller, who has never been an effective pitcher, suddenly will be. I guess it doesn't hurt to start the season with him, but having three lefties in the pen seems redundant to me. I think you need another power righty; or at the very least use Doubront or Miller as a long man, with Aceves in a more traditional set-up role.

You say "we," so I imagine that you are getting sucked in too... Seriously though, as long as he is a lefty who throws over 95, I am going to have some hope that he can figure things out. I saw just enough last year to make me think that there's a chance, and as you said, it can't hurt to start with him in the 'pen. I would rather take a chance on him harnessing his stuff than have Bowden in there. If Miller sucks, then his production is easy to replace; I am going to gamble on the upside, at least for as long as ST appearances allow.

I obviously agree about making Doubront the long man rather than Aceves though.

[dbn]

AAA starters - Cook, Silva, Wilson, Duckworth, Mortensen (DL/rehab: Ohlendorf)

Interesting that our AAA rotation won't have any real prospects, unless you consider Wilson, whom I know little about other than he is #14 at Sox Prospects, their 3rd highest ranked SP. It would break down as 3 retreads (Cook, Silva and Duckworth), 1 semi-prospect (Wilson), and 1 don't-get-your-hopes-up-but-who-knows pitcher (Mortensen).

Note that I'm not necessarily saying this is a bad thing. If the "depth in re-treads" plan works out well enough, there would be less pressure to rush Ranaudo and Barnes. Anyone know at what level Ranaudo and Barnes are each expected to begin the season?

[trekfan55]

One more question:

Don't Silva, Cook, et al have the opt out at May 1st clause? If they do, then maybe they cannot be counted on to stay at AAA.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

3. Andrew Miller is said to be throwing 96 to 99mph with hard sink, he has worked extensively with pitching coach Bob Mclure who is said to have identified some problems which have lead to Miller's lack of command....Miller is also out of options.

I wonder how many other pitching coaches have thought they've figured out Miller's problems.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Interesting that our AAA rotation won't have any real prospects, unless you consider Wilson, whom I know little about other than he is #14 at Sox Prospects, their 3rd highest ranked SP. It would break down as 3 retreads (Cook, Silva and Duckworth), 1 semi-prospect (Wilson), and 1 don't-get-your-hopes-up-but-who-knows pitcher (Mortensen).

Note that I'm not necessarily saying this is a bad thing. If the "depth in re-treads" plan works out well enough, there would be less pressure to rush Ranaudo and Barnes. Anyone know at what level Ranaudo and Barnes are each expected to begin the season?

I would expect that Rannaudo starts in Portland (AA) and that Barnes starts in Greenville (low A). Both are at least a year away.

[Plympton91]

You say "we," so I imagine that you are getting sucked in too... Seriously though, as long as he is a lefty who throws over 95, I am going to have some hope that he can figure things out. I saw just enough last year to make me think that there's a chance, and as you said, it can't hurt to start with him in the 'pen. I would rather take a chance on him harnessing his stuff than have Bowden in there. If Miller sucks, then his production is easy to replace; I am going to gamble on the upside, at least for as long as ST appearances allow.

I obviously agree about making Doubront the long man rather than Aceves though.

I think Morales and Albers are very likely to make the team and do so even if they have relatively poor springs, but I wonder:

Is Morales really that much better than Miller that Morales is a lock?

How much differently would Bowden pitch in low leverage over a full season than Albers?

Probably no reason to take the chance, but...

[reggiecleveland]

I wonder how many other pitching coaches have thought they've figured out Miller's problems.

Trade him now!

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And the rotation depth has its first ST casualty:

Carlos Silva discussing his long term future due to shoulder inflammation.

[dbn]

And the rotation depth has its first ST casualty:

Carlos Silva discussing his long term future due to shoulder inflammation.

Dang. This makes more difficult my hopes that they'd trade some of our SP depth to Seattle.

[dbn]

And the rotation depth has its first ST casualty:

Carlos Silva discussing his long term future due to shoulder inflammation.

Dang. This makes more difficult my hopes that they'd trade some of our SP depth to Seattle.

[pokey_reese]

Changing the issue a little bit is that Padilla now says that he might accept a bullpen role:

"As a starter, I feel better, because I use more of my pitches and I've always been a starter," Padilla said. "But I'm up for whatever. I want to help this ballclub one way or another."

http://boston.redsox...ok_bos&c_id=bos

[Red(s)HawksFan]

@Sean_McAdam

LHP Andrew Miller felt a "little" stiffness in his elbow this morning and has been scratched from tomorrow's appearance. #RedSoxTalk

Setting the stage for a DL stint if he can't make the team out of spring training?

[SoxScout]

Franklin Morales revealed Friday that he went back to Boston to get his heart checked after his physical showed something abnormal.

Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine on Wednesday wouldn't disclose the reason for the test, but now we know. Regardless, the test came back clean, and Morales is expected to be fine. link

[geoduck no quahog]

If Bard and Aceves make the rotation, and pitch well enough to push the Red Sox into the playoffs - what happens at the end of the season when each has reached the predicted innings limit and suffers from fatigue? If they're mediocre - no big deal...but if either of them is a premium starter it means the rotation starts depreciating at the most important time of the year.

I guess it's a good problem to have, but it could be a problem nevertheless.

[Adrian's Dome]

If Bard and Aceves make the rotation, and pitch well enough to push the Red Sox into the playoffs - what happens at the end of the season when each has reached the predicted innings limit and suffers from fatigue? If they're mediocre - no big deal...but if either of them is a premium starter it means the rotation starts depreciating at the most important time of the year.

I guess it's a good problem to have, but it could be a problem nevertheless.

I think that's the sort of thing that falls under "if it happens, we'll deal with it when we get there".

You can't be stressing about roster management decisions on March 11th for what potentially could sort of maybe happen if things fall into place a certain way 6 months from now. Hell, for all we know, by that point we've signed Roy Oswalt and Dice-K is an effective starter again. Or maybe Padilla's pulling a Colon on us and putting up a 3.3 ERA. Who knows, it's a long season.

[Plympton91]

I thought Tazawa looked pretty bad in the two outings I've seen on TV this spring. Topped out at 89 mph last night with most pitches in the 86-87 range. He has poor command of his offspeed stuff, and to my memory looks a lot heavier than he did when he came up in 2009. I had hoped he'd be charging hard against the retread brigade to make a case for himself as the 5th starter, but he seems no better than Mortenson right now.

On the other side of the spectrum, I think they're going to have a tough time explaining to Aceves why he shouldn't start. The guy is an out-generating machine right now.

[Rasputin]

If Bard and Aceves make the rotation, and pitch well enough to push the Red Sox into the playoffs - what happens at the end of the season when each has reached the predicted innings limit and suffers from fatigue? If they're mediocre - no big deal...but if either of them is a premium starter it means the rotation starts depreciating at the most important time of the year.

I guess it's a good problem to have, but it could be a problem nevertheless.

You're talking about one game in the LCS and World Series. Lester, Beckett, Buchholz are the top three starters and whoever is fourth is going to be fourth.

And if you take a look, the primary relievers are often going to pitch more and higher level innings in a postseason series than the fourth starter.

If we're in the LCS and the starters are Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and Dice K, I am totally cool with that.

[Plympton91]

If we're in the LCS and the starters are Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and Dice K, I am totally cool with that.

That's perfectly fine with me too, but it wouldn't shock me at all if, at the all-star break, Daniel Bard is the best Red Sox starter.

[Adrian's Dome]

That's perfectly fine with me too, but it wouldn't shock me at all if, at the all-star break, Daniel Bard is the best Red Sox starter.

It also wouldn't shock me if he was the worst. Or if he was our closer by that point.

That's the point - again, anything can happen. To worry about a potential starter for two playoff games if everything breaks right and we're actually in that position six months down the road, well, that's a serious case of overanalyzation.

[TheoShmeo]

Aaron Cook had a pretty good outing yesterday (but Bobby said he might not have enough time to prove himself before the fifth starter is named). Vincente Padilla got rocked in his last outing. Aceves has looked good (but I think most people would prefer him in the pen given Bard will almost certainly be a starter). Carlos Silva is on the shelf indefinitely. Andrew Miller has been delayed getting back on the mound though he's expected back soon.

Who are the realistic candidates for the 5 slot at this point? Is there a favorite?

Edited by TheoShmeo, 12 March 2012 - 07:12 AM.

[luckysox]

I just can't help but think that if Aceves is the best candidate by how he looks, and by his history, for 5th starter, then bullpen be damned, he ought to be given the chance to start the season as the 5th starter. A bullpen with some combo of Bailey, Melancon, Padilla, Albers, Miller, Doubront and Morales (if healthy) looks like enough to start the season.

[bosockboy]

Bowden on XM said the Red Sox have made an initial trade offer for John Lannan but were rebuffed.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Is Lannan really any better than what is competing for the spot now?

I still think the 5th starter spot is Doubront's to loose , with the 2nd most likely being Padilla....

I would like to see what Doubront does if given 10 or so starts to prove he deserves the spot. Not to mention I don't see the sox needing a 5th starter until the 11th of April if not later so I think there's time for a bunch of options.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Is Lannan really any better than what is competing for the spot now?

Probably a little better--a bit better at missing bats than Cook, a bit better at keeping it in the park than Padilla, a bit more experienced than Doubront. But the difference probably isn't worth the kind of player it sounds like Washington wants, even if we had him (and I don't think we do).

[bosockboy]

Probably a little better--a bit better at missing bats than Cook, a bit better at keeping it in the park than Padilla, a bit more experienced than Doubront. But the difference probably isn't worth the kind of player it sounds like Washington wants, even if we had him (and I don't think we do).

I imagine the Sox wanted him as a straight salary dump with a nothing prospect heading that way....and it could still end up happening that way I suppose.

[nothumb]

If we're in the LCS ... I am totally cool with that.

I pared this down a little bit to reflect my own feelings.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bard go on the DL and then come back as a reliever some time around August 15, unless he is absolutely lighting the world on fire. (nor would I be at all surprised to see him struggle in the rotation and end up in the pen much sooner).

[Harry Agganis]

Lannan has an option. Still ahve to pay 5mil but he has an option

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

So I'm curious what the take is on Bowden's new splitter here - it is a potential paradigm shift in his value, is it not? It's down to five spots after Lester, Beckett, Bard, Buchholz, Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey. Morales and Albers have inside tracks having shown prolonged ML success last year (in spite of Albers late crash and burn). Tazawa has shown flashes, but can be stashed in Pawtucket, and Padilla and Cook have until 5/15 to establish themselves (e.g. they can be sent to Pawtucket to, as a last resort). Bowden, Miller, and Doubront out of options. So Bowden, who I'd given up hope on in '10 looks like he needs to beat out not only Tazawa but two of Padilla, Cook, Miller, and Doubront as well, short of playing musical chairs with the DL. His deception's always been pretty good, and his location looked better last night. Does he actually have a shot to stick with that splitter? Valentine seems favorably impressed, at least for now-

“I really like Michael Bowden,” said Valentine. “His fastball was down in the zone. ... When it was down in the zone he had a good split working off of it. His split, again, from the side, but I have a pretty good perspective of things, I think, it looked like it was a pitch that was very hard to recognize. I liked what I saw. He’s going to get more quality innings, move up in the game a little.”

http://www.weei.com/...ossroads-spring

Edited by Hee-Seop's Fable, 14 March 2012 - 08:11 PM.

[Sprowl]

I haven't seen Bowden's splitter yet, but there's no question he needed some offspeed pitch to handle lefties in order to be a complete pitcher even as a reliever. His slider is nothing to write home about either, so maybe the splitter will work against righties as well. The splitter is commonly associated with pitcher who throw directly over the top (Sutter, Schilling, Lincecum), so it's a good fit with Bowden's recent evolution to a high glove position and an overhand release with a Foulke-style hitch.

Still, it wouldnt surprise me if this is just the front office talking up Bowden to raise his trade value.

[trekfan55]

Jayson Stark

Uh-oh. Might have to cancel those John Lannan trade rumors. Chien-Ming Wang just took ugly spill at 1B. Planted knee funny on a 1-unassisted

Twitter link

[mauidano]

I see the Carlos Silva pitching experiment was brief. Released today.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Lester opening day starter
Beckett home opener starter

Per Jenny Dell on Twitter.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sounds like Jenny's reading me here on SoSH.

Jenny, if you're reading this (or Gordon, or Alex, or whoever) -- what's the deal with Albers? The Sox can't be so confident about Matt-frickin-Albers that he doesn't need some appearances against actual MLB-quality hitters before the games count, right?

[tims4wins]

Bobby has some concerns

"We're going to collectively map this thing out now," he said today after the Red Sox lost, 8-4, against the Twins at JetBlue Park. "It's about time to really figure it out. Probably going to make some cuts again so that we're down to a real manageable number and we'll have pretty definite spot that they're going to pitch in."
Valentine said he "not happy" with the bullpen because nobody has pitched in the role they'll be in once the seasons starts.
"I'm a bit confused with the whole bullpen situation only because we haven't been able to fit any pieces together" he said. "Confusion is filtering [down] and everyone is something other than settled. That's where we have to go from here.
"I think all the pieces are there, but some of them are contingent upon the starters. ... We need to start making it look like something other than a bunch of pitchers getting their work in."

[Rasputin]

Lester opening day starter
Beckett home opener starter

Per Jenny Dell on Twitter.

That pretty much means it's Lester, Off Day, Beckett, Buchholz, 4th, 5th, Lester, Off, Beckett, Buchholz,

Which would mean we'd be going 2-3-4-5 v the Rays and 3-4-5 v the Yanks unless something is jiggered.

[Savin Hillbilly]

That pretty much means it's Lester, Off Day, Beckett, Buchholz, 4th, 5th, Lester, Off, Beckett, Buchholz,

Which would mean we'd be going 2-3-4-5 v the Rays and 3-4-5 v the Yanks unless something is jiggered.

A little early in the year for sweating that stuff, isn't it? If we can't win a few games against good teams with the back of our rotation, we're screwed anyway.

[Rudy's Curve]

That pretty much means it's Lester, Off Day, Beckett, Buchholz, 4th, 5th, Lester, Off, Beckett, Buchholz,

Which would mean we'd be going 2-3-4-5 v the Rays and 3-4-5 v the Yanks unless something is jiggered.

Easy - push #5's debut back a day and pitch Lester on Tuesday on Toronto on four days rest.

4/5 @ DET - Lester
4/7 @ DET - Beckett
4/8 @ DET - Buchholz

4/9 @ TOR - #4
4/10 @ TOR - Lester
4/11 @ TOR - #5

4/13 vs. TB - Beckett
4/14 vs. TB - Buchholz
4/15 vs. TB - #4
4/16 vs. TB - Lester

4/17 vs. TEX - #5
4/18 vs. TEX - Beckett

4/20 vs. NYY - Buchholz
4/21 vs. NYY - #4
4/22 vs. NYY - Lester

[Red(s)HawksFan]

That pretty much means it's Lester, Off Day, Beckett, Buchholz, 4th, 5th, Lester, Off, Beckett, Buchholz,

Which would mean we'd be going 2-3-4-5 v the Rays and 3-4-5 v the Yanks unless something is jiggered.

And if they "jigger" things around to get the top starters vs the Rays and Yankees, the result would be the bottom of the rotation facing the Tigers and Rangers and their rather potent line-ups. Not really much of a gain in the end. The first three weeks is going to be a tough slate of games no matter who's pitching when.

[Rasputin]

A little early in the year for sweating that stuff, isn't it? If we can't win a few games against good teams with the back of our rotation, we're screwed anyway.

I wasn't sweating, so much as I was commenting.

[Rudy's Curve]

And if they "jigger" things around to get the top starters vs the Rays and Yankees, the result would be the bottom of the rotation facing the Tigers and Rangers and their rather potent line-ups. Not really much of a gain in the end. The first three weeks is going to be a tough slate of games no matter who's pitching when.

The top three starters are pitching in Detroit anyways and while Texas has an excellent lineup, I'd rather have Lester face the Rays and Yankees than the Rangers and Twins. The games are going to be tough regardless, so it's better to have Lester pitching more of them.

[Plympton91]

The top three starters are pitching in Detroit anyways and while Texas has an excellent lineup, I'd rather have Lester face the Rays and Yankees than the Rangers and Twins. The games are going to be tough regardless, so it's better to have Lester pitching more of them.

If 4 and 5 are Cook and Doubront, maybe the unfamiliarity helps? That would suck, as it means they aren't putting their 5 best pitchers in the rotation again.

I never understood last years argument that, "We can't let Aceves start, because we need him in the bullpen to pitch middle relief in case the starter gives up 6 runs in the first two innings."

Edited by Plympton91, 23 March 2012 - 09:21 PM.

[twothousandone]

I never understood last years argument that, "We can't let Aceves start, because we need him in the bullpen to pitch middle relief in case the starter gives up 6 runs in the first two innings."

That wasn't the argument. The argument was "Aceves can pitch twice every five games in relief when we are within a run, either way, in the fifth, sixth,or seventh inning." His four-five key innings every five days in the middle of a winnable game were more compelling than five innings at the beginning of a single game every five days.

[pokey_reese]

Valentine said he informed Vicente Padilla that he would be pitching out of the bullpen Saturday, and that at present he is not being considered for a spot in the rotation. Valentine said Padilla’s strained hamstring would not give him sufficient time to be stretched out for a starting job. He said Padilla appeared OK with the decision, other than to tell the manager that he needs to throw a lot in order to gain a feel for his pitches.

Link: http://espn.go.com/b...boston/red-sox/