125 replies to this topic

[SpruceTrap]

What are you thoughts on how the 2012 bullpen will shape up? I'm not sure how I feel about the chances of Bailey staying healthy but I do like the fact that we have someone with closer experience who could step in if needed. I actually really like Melancon. And while win-loss records aren't very indicative of performance, they do tell you what happened and Bard did lose 9 games as the setup guy last year.

Beyond that though, things are much less sure. I think it's important that one of our 5th starter options steps up in Spring Training so we can use Aceves in the bullpen next year. I'm not sure what roll Doubront would fill as a reliever. He's left-handed but he's had more success against right-handers over his career. Rich Hill would be nice but he's also a large unknown given that he's coming off of Tommy John.

Franklin Morales is a big question mark but at least he has upside. After that I suppose we'll just throw the other options at the wall and see what sticks. Bobby Valentine does have a reputation as a good in game manager, perhaps he can make a difference?

Should be an interesting year... what are your thoughts?

[Sampo Gida]

I think so much depends on if Bailey can stay healthy and throw more than 42 IP, and if Melancon can show he can do well in the AL East.

Bailey being shut down due to a lat strain is probably not much of a concern, but given his history, it's worth mentioning.

http://www.boston.co...ey_getting.html

So the fact that Bailey was shut down for a few days to deal with a slightly strained lat muscle is no big deal.

Bailey threw in the bullpen yesterday, will play long toss tomorrow and throw in the bullpen again on Sunday. From there he will pitch live batting practice and then get into a game.

And his lat?

"Everything is fine, it feels good," Bailey said.

[msfl96]

I absolutely love Melancon. The guy was pretty much the only bright spot on the Astros last season, and had a .8 WAR, which (though probably a bit low for a closer) is damn good for a set-up guy, and a massive step up from Jenks/Wheeler (.1 and .4 respectively). Plus, the guy's only 26, and chugged up a grand total of 74 innings last year, proving that the guy has stamina, something the Sox' bullpen lacked big time last September. Plus, we know he has the ability to close, which is great considering how Bailey could easily get injured.

Bailey, though clearly a possible stud, has his issues; I'm scared about his lat, and just his overall tendency to get injured. The Sox have a bad tendency to buy or draft guys who are predisposed to injury (Jenks, [I am an Idiot], Wheeler), and I sincerely hope Bailey does not become the latest one. That said, it was necessary to replace Papelbon, especially for my own mental health, as I haven't felt confident watching him pitch since he blew Game 3 against the Angels. Hopefully it pans out, and if it doesn't, at least we have Melancon.

[untilthebombs]

I wouldn't suggest that Bailey's injury prone. He had TJ surgery in college and did need elbow surgery following the 2010 season. The time missed in 2010 though was a result of being rushed back from a forearm strain incurred during spring training. Treat you're pitchers poorly and they're going to get hurt.

Otherwise, 1 injury in 3 years and TJ 7 years ago, isn't a big deal.

[alwyn96]

I'm more concerned about the non-Bailey/Melancon pieces. So we're looking at a grab bag of Albers/Bowden/Miller/Morales/Padilla and possibly the loser of the Bard/Aceves/Doubront cadre? That is...not inspiring. Albers showed flashes of being good but was ultimately lousy, Bowden is meh, Miller is terrible, Padilla is insane/injured, and Morales is injured (although I think may make it for opening day). Hopefully we won't see the ugly end of this bullpen too often.

[ivanvamp]

A back three of Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey should be one of the better trios in baseball. So I'm fine with that. The rest? Eh....it is what most bullpens are...filled with some guys who have some ability, but who ultimately don't exactly excite you so much.

[koufax37]

I agree with the optimism on this trio, and think it is funny how people get worried by a handful of ground ball hits, or injuries from 12 months ago, etc.

I actually think that the rest of our bullpen will very solid for the roles they are expected to fill. I'm hoping Morales can blossom and be a valuable full inning lefty when Hill comes back as the Loogy. I don't see Albers sticking around too long, and am not super excited about Bowden, but Padilla also has a lot of upside and combining strike throwing, good stuff, and veteran experience, and I think he is the one in the pen who has his contributions exceed his expectations for the year. I expect to see Tazawa take the place of Albers or Bowden at some point and I think he is a better pitcher than either of them.

A back three of Aceves, Melancon, and Bailey should be one of the better trios in baseball. So I'm fine with that. The rest? Eh....it is what most bullpens are...filled with some guys who have some ability, but who ultimately don't exactly excite you so much.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

"PeteAbe: Valentine mentioned a health issue in the back end of the bullpen but didn't identify the player. Bailey hasn't pitched since March 25."
http://twitter.com/P...460029145194497

Took this from the thread on the main board.

With the possibility of Bailey being hurt, who would close for this team? My guess or vote would be for Padilla.

[alwyn96]

With the possibility of Bailey being hurt, who would close for this team? My guess or vote would be for Padilla.

No offense, but why on earth would you guess or vote for Padilla? He's pitched ok in Spring Training, but both Aceves and Melacon have far better recent track records, and it's not 100% that Padilla will even make the team.

I've got to think that if Melancon continues to struggle, they give the job to Aceves as a sort of consolation prize for getting bumped out of the rotation. No one's particularly earned it this Spring, though.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

It's a little out of the box, I know. He's closed a handful of games in the past and has one save this spring. With Melancon struggling, and Aceves better suited for middle relief, it would seem to be the next best option. He's got the kind of stuff you'd want a closer to have, mid 90's fast ball and a filthy curve, not to mention he's got the perfect attitude. Like I said, I understand that it seems abnormal but it was a thought I had prior in the spring.

Edit to add stuff from the main board thread

Posted Today, 01:35 PM by Plympton91
Oh joy, another controversy for the nattering nabobs to flaunt.

Maybe Vincente Padilla can reinvent himself as a relief ace.

Posted Today, 02:28 PM by Comeback Kid

FWIW, Padilla closed for the Dodgers briefly last season before getting hurt. 3 saves and 5 holds

Maybe not so out of the box?

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 01 April 2012 - 04:08 PM.

[MikeM]

It's a little out of the box, I know. He's closed a handful of games in the past and has one save this spring. With Melancon struggling, and Aceves better suited for middle relief, it would seem to be the next best option. He's got the kind of stuff you'd want a closer to have, mid 90's fast ball and a filthy curve, not to mention he's got the perfect attitude. Like I said, I understand that it seems abnormal but it was a thought I had prior in the spring.

Edit to add stuff from the main board thread



Maybe not so out of the box?

It's out of the box, but essentially no more so then converting the most ideal closer canadite to the rotation, following a decision to let the best closer in franchise history walk out the door.

With Melabcon struggling this spring, and being in agreement that Aceves is better suited to remain in a much more flexible role, it's an idea worth kicking the tires on imo. Somethimes you have to play with the cards you are dealt. Annual optimism that's skyhigh every spring getting it's first taste of cold reality and all.

Hey, maybe he'll pull a Gagne. The good LA version that is lol.

[Sampo Gida]

I wouldn't suggest that Bailey's injury prone. He had TJ surgery in college and did need elbow surgery following the 2010 season. The time missed in 2010 though was a result of being rushed back from a forearm strain incurred during spring training. Treat you're pitchers poorly and they're going to get hurt.

Otherwise, 1 injury in 3 years and TJ 7 years ago, isn't a big deal.

You are forgetting 2011. He also missed almost 2 months then due to an elbow injury. He also had surgery after 2010 to remove scar tissue and elbow chips. In 3 MLB seasons, he has been healthy only in his rookie season. He also missed time earlier this ST with a lat problem.

This one seems to be the thumb suffered from a collsion with a runner on the 21st. The fact that he is off to Boston 10 days later suggests it could something more than a sprain..

http://sportsillustr...y.ap/index.html

[koufax37]

I like Padilla and expect him to be one of the members of the bullpen to exceed expectations, but I think Melancon and Aceves are the ones to get the shot the 9th inning for the few days Bailey might be out.

If it is based on the collision and Bailey then threw more than an inning in a minor league game, I can't see how it wouldn't be a minor thing and he might not miss time, but then again, he has been subscribing to Jed Lowrie's blog more than to Cal Ripken's.

I don't have any worries about either of them pitching the 9th, but I am concerned about everybody sliding up and the void it leaves earlier in things, especially when we know Bard, Doubront, Buchholz aren't a lock to be pitching the seventh inning very often. But it will likely make Padilla's role more important in the meantime with Aceves in the 8th or 9th.

[sancap14]

While I like Bard's upside in the rotation, wouldn't it now make sense to plug Bard into the closer role and give Aceves the 5th spot in the rotation? Of course, we don't know the extent of Bailey's injury but the lack of information on this has me a little worried. Absolutely unreal that our closer goes down the 1st week to start the season, especially with this schedule.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

While I like Bard's upside in the rotation, wouldn't it now make sense to plug Bard into the closer role and give Aceves the 5th spot in the rotation? Of course, we don't know the extent of Bailey's injury but the lack of information on this has me a little worried. Absolutely unreal that our closer goes down the 1st week to start the season, especially with this schedule.

I'm not sure Bailey's injury is all that serious. Granted it doesn't bode well for the beginning of the season, but from what I've heard so far he's going to miss less than a week. I'm going to sit on the optimistic side of this for now and take this as an unfortunate incident rather than a foreshadowing of what's to come, even taking into account his previous injury history. Plucking Bard from the rotation now would be a little drastic, IMO. There are a few guys in the pen who can fill in for the moment. Hopefully, when it's all said and done this isn't really a big deal.

[koufax37]

While I like Bard's upside in the rotation, wouldn't it now make sense to plug Bard into the closer role and give Aceves the 5th spot in the rotation? Of course, we don't know the extent of Bailey's injury but the lack of information on this has me a little worried. Absolutely unreal that our closer goes down the 1st week to start the season, especially with this schedule.

NOOO PLEASE!

Bard is more valuable as our #4 starter than he is as a closer or setup man. He should not be jerked around in a Joba way that keeps him from being as effective and valuable as he can be. The Reds just made that mistake with Chapman. Forget Smoltz and the brief Schilling experiment. If you can be a good starter, do it. We are not considering moving Lester to the Loogy role because Hill is still on his way back. We did not move Beckett to the 7th inning when Jenks went down.

Winning games you are ahead in after 8 innings is MUCH easier than winning games you are 0-0 on in the top of the first. While I really want to have a healthy lights out bullpen ready to go (and it isn't clear that we won't have Aceves-Melancon-Bailey for the vast majority of the year), the most important thing (as we saw down the stretch) is having good starters limiting the runs given up in the first 7 innings.

[AimingForYoko]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this bullpen may not be so hot.

Who wants to place bets on when we'll see Bailey next?

eta: http://www.boston.co..._getting_1.html

Maybe this is all a super elaborate and late and unfunny April Fool's joke.

Edited by AimingForYoko, 02 April 2012 - 04:40 PM.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this bullpen may not be so hot.

Who wants to place bets on when we'll see Bailey next?

eta: http://www.boston.co..._getting_1.html

Maybe this is all a super elaborate and late and unfunny April Fool's joke.

One can hope.

That news is a little more unsettling. If he does need surgery then I still feel we've got guys that can handle the later innings. We'll have to see how this all plays out, but I'm not panicking yet.

[MikeM]

NOOO PLEASE!

Bard is more valuable as our #4 starter than he is as a closer or setup man. He should not be jerked around in a Joba way that keeps him from being as effective and valuable as he can be. The Reds just made that mistake with Chapman. Forget Smoltz and the brief Schilling experiment. If you can be a good starter, do it. We are not considering moving Lester to the Loogy role because Hill is still on his way back. We did not move Beckett to the 7th inning when Jenks went down.

Heh, i get you've made no secret of riding shotgun on the Bard bandwagon, but i think we both know those are some fairly poor and overly-exaggerated comps there

As for whether or not he's more valuable in the rotation, that remains to be seen. Personally, in this instance i'd love to see Bobby V show some Saturn balls of his own there and push against upstairs wishes on the matter, alas that's not going to happen. At least not yet.

Winning games you are ahead in after 8 innings is MUCH easier than winning games you are 0-0 on in the top of the first. While I really want to have a healthy lights out bullpen ready to go (and it isn't clear that we won't have Aceves-Melancon-Bailey for the vast majority of the year), the most important thing (as we saw down the stretch) is having good starters limiting the runs given up in the first 7 innings.

Of course, that all completely hinges on Bard actually transitioning from elite bullpen arm to an above-average/innings eatting starter. *This* season at that, at least imo if one is approaching this debate with a primary focus on what's in the best interest of the TEAM in the here and now.

[MikeM]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this bullpen may not be so hot.

As the general saying that you see pop up in the timeless debate goes, an elite closer is arguably the most overrated/overvalued position in baseball.

At least until you don't have one

I like Aceves, but he's not gonna be that guy. If Bailey misses significant time this season, things will probably get fairly ugly as a whole real quick imo.

[Sampo Gida]

Did anyone really expect Bailey to make it through a full season healthy?. Between Melancon, Aceves and Padilla, the late innings should be ok (assuming melancon can adjust to Fenway and the AL East), no worse than league average anyways. At some point, Bard goes back to the pen, maybe swapping with Aceves, maybe not.

It could have been worse, we could have signed Ryan Madson.

We should have signed Edwin Jackson and Tim Wakefield and just kept Bard and Aceves in the pen, but my consulting services were not requested.

[MikeM]

Did anyone really expect Bailey to make it through a full season healthy?. Between Melancon, Aceves and Padilla, the late innings should be ok (assuming melancon can adjust to Fenway and the AL East), no worse than league average anyways

I wasn't *banking* on a full season of health, but i was at least expecting (or hoping, i guess) to ride that optimism train coming out the gate. Although from the start, i'd also be liking Bailey a lot more as a complimentary piece then the make-or-break role he's projected in atm. As i currently see a bullpen of Melancon, Aceves and Padilla being fairly mediocre, and quite possibly a nightly outrage outlet waiting to happen.

We should have signed Edwin Jackson and Tim Wakefield and just kept Bard and Aceves in the pen, but my consulting services were not requested.

Well, If we would have had the available money to sign an Edwin Jackson, that likely was Plan A imo. Although on a side note there, it's too bad the FO weren't putting this much surface stock on Bard's future as a SP 2 years back, before we flushed all that money away signing Lackey. Just saying

[Sampo Gida]

Well, If we would have had the available money to sign an Edwin Jackson, that likely was Plan A imo. Although on a side note there, it's too bad the FO weren't putting this much surface stock on Bard's future as a SP 2 years back, before we flushed all that money away signing Lackey. Just saying

The money is there, they just didn't want to spend it despite knowing they had 80 million in tax credits in the pipeline.

[Stanley Steamer]

"It could have been worse, we could have signed Ryan Madson." -Sampo Gida

I read Valentine's remark about bad things happening in threes. Maybe, instead of the Sox, it's for closers who moved this offseason.
I foresee Papelpon blowing a save next week, having a fan hit him in the head with a battery, and falling into a coma.

As for Bailey, not good news, and I suspect that if surgery is indeed required, he will be missing most of the season.

edit- my quotes; still learning how to quote posts

Edited by Stanley Steamer, 02 April 2012 - 09:32 PM.

[koufax37]

Yes, I'm not hiding my faith in Bard as a starter, but it is not because I am a fan of his, but because I am a fan of the Red Sox and think based on his mechanics, makeup, and arm that he will be much more successful than Doubront, Aceves, or Cook. I think in 2012 it could be close enough to argue, and by 2013 he will outperform at least one member of our top three. I think that organizational development value is important if there isn't a compelling reason not to for 2012.

I am not a big fan of spring training stats, but Bard, Aceves, and Doubront all performed well, with Doubront avoiding the one stat-busting bump in the road. I did not see as much of Aceves pitching due to the TV schedule, but I still have some doubts at how well he can go through the heart of the order a third time, which is a key to being a starter.

I'm not clear why you think it is time for Bobby to show some balls. I think that it is actually the opposite. Don't have a power struggle before the very first game, but instead try to be someone who helps manage players and help keep them happy enough to perform at a peak level. Maybe he wants Aceves to pitch with a chip on his shoulder, and that is a tactic. Otherwise I think what has been reported to have been said is a little disappointing.

I'm also not clear on why Aceves has to be paid like a traditional middle reliever if he is different and more valuable. Is that a market inefficiency in general in terms of free agency, or in terms of putting together arbitration comps (for a team that doesn't go to arbitration hearings)? Does he really think he is 3/30M type starter material? Is there a reason that the Red Sox wouldn't value his special role as much as they would value an average starter or a stat padding non-elite closer? Or is he banking on a Gil Meche bad contract that the Red Sox wouldn't give him, but no middle reliever ever gets?

Other than being a Bard fan, by the way, I am also one who has said from the start that the "you are more valuable in the bullpen" argument isn't a good one against Aceves starting, and if he was realistically the best guy for the job he should have the job. I just think that Bard and Doubront should be realistically projected to be better over 160 innings than Aceves based on what we know about them going into this spring combined with how they pitched this spring.

Heh, i get you've made no secret of riding shotgun on the Bard bandwagon, but i think we both know those are some fairly poor and overly-exaggerated comps there

As for whether or not he's more valuable in the rotation, that remains to be seen. Personally, in this instance i'd love to see Bobby V show some Saturn balls of his own there and push against upstairs wishes on the matter, alas that's not going to happen. At least not yet.

Of course, that all completely hinges on Bard actually transitioning from elite bullpen arm to an above-average/innings eatting starter. *This* season at that, at least imo if one is approaching this debate with a primary focus on what's in the best interest of the TEAM in the here and now.

[KillerBs]

Surely a setback with Bailey going down, but if everyone keeps their head this is manageable.

Now is not the time to panic and flip Bard back to the closer position. Plenty of time for that later as Plan C or Plan D, if need be.

As for Plan B, I am inclined to try and get 60 games/90+ innings out of Aceves at the back end of the pen and work in Melancon as the secondary closer when AA needs a night off. We're going to find out sooner or later if Melancon can consistently get big outs late for us, we might as well find out with him closing here or there in April/May. Hard to say how AA will handle the main closing duties, but it should be fun to watch especially if they pitch him in the 8th and 9th when he's rested to do so. I don't worry about periodic failure causing permanent psychological damage to him and it helps that, when last seen in games that counted, his stuff was utterly dominant. Last 2 months of 2011 for Aceves: 1.37 era with .577 OPS against, 14 BBs/42 Ks in 46 IPs.

Of the remaining 5 (Albers, Atchison, Bowden, Morales, Padilla) it is Albers which concerns me the most. I expect Bowden and Atchison to be good. The lack of the second lefty in the pen is a problem, but I cant see how they could opt for Justin Thomas over Atchison, when the latter is probably the best 7th inning option now.

If they cant deal Albers or Bowden for another (good) lefty in the pen, then I am fine to run with these guys until May 1 before reassessing the situation.

[MikeM]

Now is not the time to panic and flip Bard back to the closer position. Plenty of time for that later as Plan C or Plan D, if need be.

I'm sorry there, but in what universe would putting the most blatently obvious candidate on our roster in the closer's role (since day one i might add) be worthy of labeling off as a "panic" move? I mean i get the surface need to surround the Bard convsersion with all this skyhigh optimism right now, i really do. But some of the current "OMG, no way!" stances i see coming out of this adopted outlook are getting downright silly imo.

With Bailey now out for 3-4 months, and Melancon looking like shit all spring, this need coming out of ownership to downplay the aftermath-effects of some terrible financial decisions they made the last few winters is rapidly becoming a lot less cute imo.

[KillerBs]

I dont know about the ownership being cute, and I do not doubt the Sox would be a better team now if they had signed a couple free agent pitchers this off-season. But setting that aside, I think Bard to the rotation makes sense and keeping Bard in the rotation even though Bailey has gone down also makes sense, at least for now. Whether justified or not, announcing Bard as the closer the day after he was declared as a starter is going to be perceived as panicky. The decision to move him to the rotation was based on a perfectly reasonable assessment a. that Bard was worth a lot more pitching 150+ innings earlier in games then 80 innings late in games and b. the expected performance of who would be pitching those 70 innings if Bard did not. None of those calculations seemed to have changed fundamentally with Bailey's injury.

If on the other hand, its May 1, and the Globe has managed to stir "Red Sox Nation" into freaking out over a few blown saves, and Cook (and Doubront) look like they could be close to league average then maybe then you need to think more seriously about making the sub optimal strategic move of declaring Bard the CLOSER.

[Sampo Gida]

I am sure Ben and Bobby V has given a lot of thought before this injury about what to do if Bailey is not available given his injury history.

Before Bailey came over, Melancon was talked about as being the closer. Give Melancon and Aceves a chance, and if they can not handle it, then you can always move Bard back to the pen and Cook can replace him as the 5th starter.

We have been rather spoiled by Paps relative health and stability at closer for 6 years. Guys like him and Rivera are rare closers, thats why they get paid the big bucks.

Interesting that Lowrie is out with a sprained thumb for the Astros (but Weiland had a heck of a ST and made the rotation).

[MikeM]

The decision to move him to the rotation was based on a perfectly reasonable assessment a. that Bard was worth a lot more pitching 150+ innings earlier in games then 80 innings late in games and b. the expected performance of who would be pitching those 70 innings if Bard did not. None of those calculations seemed to have changed fundamentally with Bailey's injury.

Is this decision really based on such an internal evaulation though, or is it more a product being fueled on by the fact we want/need to downplay the fact we've dug ourselves into a financial hole, and/or that we've come up short at our attempt as a whole to build from within? I'm seeing more of the latter in this then the former, but again that's just me.

As far as Bard's transition goes, even as somebody who disagreed with the concept from the start, i at least understood the decision as the calculated risk that it was. But it was also something i viewed as being completely dependant on the acquisition of Bailey, who's upside potential/appeal to the current roster all but went hand-in-hand with that of Bard's as a starter. Without Bailey's presence in that picture, this now just feels more like a matter of throwing caution to the wind, and taking a "come hell or high water, Bard is our replacement starter" stance imo.

If we were placing a less then 100% priority in getting back into the playoff picture this season, i'd be more onboard with the plan. That's not where i'm at with my thinking on our prospects for 2012 though, and i just don't see how i'm being all that crazy atm in feeling that way. This making question mark improvements to the rotation, at the potential expense of blowing up your bullpen in the process, isn't what the currently reality we face is rationally calling for imo.

You are right though, in that the media would view and present this off as a panic move. That does not necessarily make it the wrong one though.

[Sampo Gida]

Rays closer also on the DL, not sure how long or who replaces him.

The 2003 Red Sox started the season with closer by committee. That did not work out and then they got BH Kim who saved the day. His arm fell off by the time the playoffs came around and after a bit of closer by committee, Scott Williamson who did not have a single save all year was the closer, and except for a "Little" mistake, that team might have won a championship.

Nobody is saying Bard can't go back to the pen and close if needed, but we don't really know how he does as closer if he does, so no harm waiting to see how a couple of other unknowns in Melancon and/or Aceves does before messing with the rotation.

Losing Baileys or Bards 10 IP as closer in April is hardly going to make or break the season, even if Melancon/Aceves don't do well.

[MikeM]

Nobody is saying Bard can't go back to the pen and close if needed, but we don't really know how he does as closer if he does, so no harm waiting to see how a couple of other unknowns in Melancon and/or Aceves does before messing with the rotation.

For my money, i'll take the "can elite relief pitcher X mentally handle being handed the closer's job" risk/s over that of the transitional concerns anyday .

Just saying, for a team that finished the way we did last year, this current place that in place just reeks of short-term 2012 focus/optimism imo. Don't worry about having a less then ideal bullpen for the year, because your transition project starter who will likely hit an innings limit will have a savior in Dice-K to hand the ball off to, and/or whoever that supposed $5m (that may or may not actually be there) and short list of attractive prospects reallistically gets us at the trade deadline? Bleh.

Here's to hoping Padilla stays healthy all year and ends up joing Ross as pleasant surprise #2 of the season.

[Towney007]

Yeah if people should've learned anything over the last few years watching the Rays, it's that relief pitching is incomprehensibly replaceable.

The Cardinals changed their closer 42 times last year before Motte emerged at the end of the year. The Phillies went into last year with no idea who THEIR closer would be. The Rangers rotated it. The Angels rotated theirs. The Indians dealt with Perez's health issues and the White Sox cycled through closers, too. The Rays completely turned their bullpen over and closed by committee as well. Soria, Feliz, Bailey and now Farnsworth look like they could miss significant time. Chris Perez is coming off an injury. That's basically a third of the American League with closer issues. Almost all of those teams minus the Royals could be contenders this year. Who knows what happens the rest of the way.

The one thing I will agree with people on - is that the health issues with the Red Sox are just getting out of control. This is going on three years now. Someone's gotta get a better handle on this.

• 5 guys out indefinately
• 4 guys day-to-day
• And Lackey

Ten guys. We've been doing this for three years. Maybe I'm wrong, but good lord it's frustrating.

[Sampo Gida]

For my money, i'll take the "can elite relief pitcher X mentally handle being handed the closer's job" risk/s over that of the transitional concerns anyday .

Just saying, for a team that finished the way we did last year, this current place that in place just reeks of short-term 2012 focus/optimism imo. Don't worry about having a less then ideal bullpen for the year, because your transition project starter who will likely hit an innings limit will have a savior in Dice-K to hand the ball off to, and/or whoever that supposed $5m (that may or may not actually be there) and short list of attractive prospects reallistically gets us at the trade deadline? Bleh.

Here's to hoping Padilla stays healthy all year and ends up joing Ross as pleasant surprise #2 of the season.

The team missed the playoffs mainly due to lack of SP depth. Also, we do not know for sure Bard will have an innings limit, guys like CJ Wilson or Oganda made huge jumps in their conversion.

Fans like certainty, but teams know they have to adjust during the course of the season and most use 20+ pitchers in various roles over the course of a season. Melancon closed last year, give him a shot this year. If he can't do it, then you go to plan C (Aceves), then D (Padilla) if necessary.

The fact Padilla is even on this team is an embarassment, so I don't look forward to him doing anything, let alone closing, but he is an option.

I don't expect much from Dice-K, but deals can be made, and Wake is sitting by the phone waiting to be talked out of retirement..

[Stanley Steamer]

Well this is frustrating news on Bailey. The bullpen looks thin if one or more of the ranks decides to suck. But it's only baseball, so they might as well play the games and see what happens.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'm not sure Bailey was ever an absolute. I haven't been 100% confident in his abilities since the Spring started. The fact that he's now out, doesn't really seem like that much of a blow to me.

Yeah if people should've learned anything over the last few years watching the Rays, it's that relief pitching is incomprehensibly replaceable.

The Cardinals changed their closer 42 times last year before Motte emerged at the end of the year. The Phillies went into last year with no idea who THEIR closer would be. The Rangers rotated it. The Angels rotated theirs. The Indians dealt with Perez's health issues and the White Sox cycled through closers, too. The Rays completely turned their bullpen over and closed by committee as well. Soria, Feliz, Bailey and now Farnsworth look like they could miss significant time. Chris Perez is coming off an injury. That's basically a third of the American League with closer issues. Almost all of those teams minus the Royals could be contenders this year. Who knows what happens the rest of the way.

This is pretty much what it comes down too. I do have confidence that someone in this bullpen can come in and pitch a clean inning at the end of games. We've been extremely spoiled the past 6 years having Paps as that guy.

Paps is gone. Bard is a starter. Bailey's out. Time to move forward.

The fact Padilla is even on this team is an embarassment, so I don't look forward to him doing anything, let alone closing, but he is an option.

What's with the Padilla hate? I think he's looked impressive this Spring. He kind of reminds me of Julian Tavarez, with the ability to pitch.

Well this is frustrating news on Bailey. The bullpen looks thin if one or more of the ranks decides to suck. But it's only baseball, so they might as well play the games and see what happens.

Blasphemy!!! (joking...sort of)

[koufax37]

I think that I would definitely like to have Bailey back in October, and look forward to having him in August and September too, but while our bullpen is certainly weaker, I don't have a problem with Aceves, Melancon, or Padilla getting the last three outs.

I'm a little more concerned with the relief ace role than the save situation guy. Having the right guy to pitch the 8th with two on and two out, or come in with the bases loaded in the seventh and the heart of the Yankees order up seems a little more important than getting the last three outs of a 4-1 game against the bottom of the Royals order.

Okay, that was an over simplification, but I think that the 9th inning with the lead averaging 2 runs and the bases empty is a place where Aceves/Melancon/Padilla all can do the job and are good strike throwers, and we will not miss Bailey or even Papelbon as much as we think. The greater issue is a couple games that get away from us because we don't have Bard to strike someone out to end the inning, but while those moments might be magnified by the media and fan attention, I don't think they are as impactful on the race to win 95 out of 162 as having Bard start instead of Cook/Aceves (or Lackey/Weiland/Miller/Wakefield), so I am okay if we drop a couple games that we say "darn, we would have won that one with Bard/Paps", because I think we will make up those couple games with bottom of the rotation wins.

Then, as non ideal as it may be, we have Cook (if needed), Dice-K, and Bailey to add to this team at their own times and make our team even stronger than it is out of the gates.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

So, this is it:

Aceves
Melancon
Padilla
Morales
Bowden
Thomas
Atchison
Albers

Aceves closing, Melancon as setup guy/backup closer, and I'd assume Padilla as long man. Likely that Thomas is out when Miller is off the DL, and Atchison or Albers goes when Hill is ready and it get's trimmed down to 7 when Crawford returns. I'm ok with the top 5 names on that list, the other 3 make me throw up in my mouth a little.

Personally, I'm pretty OK with Aceves closing. He's been the most consistent candidate so far and it will be interesting to see if he gets used in a non-traditional role.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 04 April 2012 - 02:01 PM.

[AimingForYoko]

Huh.

Ha, I forgot about that filter.

But as I said, I'm down on this move or up. It's more of a skeptical optimism.

Edited by AimingForYoko, 04 April 2012 - 03:11 PM.

[MikeM]

Well, at least now Aceves can take some comfort in the likelihood that he'll see that bigger payday coming next winter.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Huh.

I really have no more to say but don't know how to stop typing. really. It's more of a skeptical optimism.

Skeptical optimism. The theme of the 2012 Red Sox.

[Sampo Gida]

Not sure I like the idea of going with 13 pitchers in April. Going with 4 OF'ers leaves the bench a bit thin as only 1 hits both RHP and LHP well.

No problem with Aceves closing. I like his stuff better than Melancons.

What's with the Padilla hate? I think he's looked impressive this Spring. He kind of reminds me of Julian Tavarez, with the ability to pitch.

Not talking about his abilities as a pitcher. His character deficits are widely known, so no need to list here. It either bothers you, or it don't. To each his own.

[BostonBrahmin]

Aceves is the right choice as closer. He's not a starter (his OPS against takes a huge jump second time through the lineup), and he's probably the best arm in the bullpen even with Bailey healthy.

Padilla has had a good spring, but I don't trust him to hold up, y'know, psychologically. Also, you have to think Padilla is the 6th starter right now. Given the length of time Bailey is going to be out I would imagine Valentine would want to try and solidify that closer role as soon as possible so he can get back to worrying about whether or not his nuts look small in those bike shorts.

As for Bard, I think you need to stick him in the rotation and see if he sinks or swims. If he sinks, you move him back to the pen and don't lose much. If he succeeds you have another quality young starter with 3+ years of arb eligibility remaining.

I wish pitching depth wasn't already an issue before Game 1, but I think they are in OK shape for now.

[KillerBs]

I dont like 13 pitchers either, but in the circumstances, with the players available perhaps it makes sense for a few weeks.

The problem is that with Doubront to the rotation and Miller's overall suckitude there is no second plausible second lefty in the pen. They decided to solve that problem with the not so plausible second lefty Justin Thomas, who has had a couple of decent years at AAA, but whose overall record suggests a problem throwing strikes.

That decision was made easier by the utter absence of candidates for the 4th bench spot who might add any real value. Ciriaco could pinch run I suppose and perhaps replace Aviles defensively with leads late but 2 light hitting utility infielders is at least one more than necessary. I still think the missing piece is a corner infielder, with some pop, who could spell Youks and/or Ortiz here and there, and maybe pinch hit for Aviles periodically.

Ideally Cherington could move one of Atchison, Bowden, or Albers for another decent plus leftyin the pen or that misisg piece on the bench.

[Stanley Steamer]

Ideally Cherington could move one of Atchison, Bowden, or Albers for another decent plus leftyin the pen or that misisg piece on the bench.

I don't know. None of these guys is likely to bring much back in return, unless they start hot. And if they do, we probably would be better off with them. I don't think a second lefty will make or break the pen. I think we will be lucky if a few of these guys don't get torched early and often. As the season goes on, the bullpen ought to be strengthened by return from injury, and maybe trade. If we can be in good position after 60 games or so, our supposed weakness could turn into a strength. Hold the fort!

[alwyn96]

I don't know. None of these guys is likely to bring much back in return, unless they start hot. And if they do, we probably would be better off with them. I don't think a second lefty will make or break the pen. I think we will be lucky if a few of these guys don't get torched early and often. As the season goes on, the bullpen ought to be strengthened by return from injury, and maybe trade. If we can be in good position after 60 games or so, our supposed weakness could turn into a strength. Hold the fort!

Agreed. Those guys mediocre at best, but at least they're cheap. Something called Justin Thomas is also on this team, and is apparently lefthanded, but I don't expect he'll be doing more than mopping up. I'm less worried about the handedness of the bullpen than just the guy's ability to get anybody out. You could have an all-RHP bullpen (which I think Sox had one year) and be totally fine. I think Embree was the only LHP out of the bullpen on those Red Sox championship teams, and he was often better against righties anyway.

[Merkle's Boner]

A good bullpen is all about defining roles and making sure guys are comfortable in their roles. I'm not sure how Bobby's yanking of Melancon after two hits helps either one of those things. Fact is that Melancon needs to be the #2 guy in that pen for it to have any success. Either start Aceves in the 9th or let Melancon take the inning. It's Game 1 of 162.

[BostonBrahmin]

A good bullpen is all about defining roles and making sure guys are comfortable in their roles. I'm not sure how Bobby's yanking of Melancon after two hits helps either one of those things. Fact is that Melancon needs to be the #2 guy in that pen for it to have any success. Either start Aceves in the 9th or let Melancon take the inning. It's Game 1 of 162.

I agree, can't really follow his thinking on this one. Whatever, its Game 1 for the manager, too.

[alwyn96]

Melancon needs to pitch like a #2 guy in order to be the #2 guy. Roles are all well and good when you actually perform, but not at the cost of losing thr game. Professional baseball isn't played to make guys feel comfortable - it's played to win. Bullpens are a ruthless meritocracy - you get a defined role when you earn it, and Melancon didn't do much to earn it in ST or today.

[Merkle's Boner]

Professional baseball is played to win a championship. Championships are not won in Game 1. If you anoint Melancon the #2 guy, and i think he should be based on his body of work, then you need to let him fail in that role. The only logical answer to BV's decision is that he has decided that Melancon is not the man for that role. We will see in the 8th inning of the next game. Personally, I think it is way to soon to be making those types of changes to your Pen.