86 replies to this topic

[shepard50]

We haven't had one of these come to a panel since 2002. WIll it get there today? If so, who wins?

The exciting offseason continues!

[Lose Remerswaal]

Why do I recall the Sox walking away from an Arbitration award, some time last decade (Graffanino?)? Did this happen? Or am I just getting old(er)?

[EddieYost]

Why do I recall the Sox walking away from an Arbitration award, some time last decade (Graffanino?)? Did this happen? Or am I just getting old(er)?

Yes

http://www.boston.co...ced_on_waivers/

Graffanino is placed on waivers

By Chris Snow and Gordon Edes, Globe Staff | March 26, 2006

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Unable to find a suitable offer for Tony Graffanino, and uninterested in taking the financial hit to cut him or keep him, the Sox have placed the spare second baseman on waivers.

At least a few teams -- including the Mets, Cardinals, and Cubs -- are believed to be interested in Graffanino. But his 2006 cost ($2.05 million) and difficulties at the plate apparently convinced teams not to give up anything for him that sufficiently interested the Sox. In 12 spring games, he's hitting .182 (6 for 32) with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs. The Sox have showcased him at first, second, and third base this spring.

The Sox had to make a decision on Graffanino this week, or risk being on the hook for the full $2.05 million. As a player signed through the arbitration process, Graffanino's contract remains nonguaranteed. As of now, the Sox could cut him and owe him 45 days termination pay, which amounts to $512,500. However, his deal becomes guaranteed in full Wednesday.

''It's been very difficult," Graffanino said yesterday. ''Once I knew I wasn't going to be on this club, I wanted to leave as soon as I could. Right now my hope, I guess, is somebody claims me or a trade still works out."

[SoxScout]

Not exactly, Graffanino and the Sox settled before the arbitration hearing. There was no arbitration award.

Edited by SoxScout, 13 February 2012 - 08:00 AM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

So why do they keep saying this is the first arb case to go to a hearing since 2002?


This is why:

Infielder Tony Graffanino agreed Wednesday to a $2.05 million, one-year contract with the Boston Red Sox that avoids a salary arbitration hearing.

So he accepted arb, but the team and he settled prior to a hearing, and then the Sox decided he wanted too much anyway. Bizarre.


Edit: Scout: Just figured that out myself while you were posting. Still doesn't explain why the team agreed on that price and then walked away.

Edited by Lose Remerswaal, 13 February 2012 - 08:02 AM.

[SoxScout]

Just figured that out myself while you were posting. Still doesn't explain why the team agreed on that price and then walked away.

They thought there was no chance he was going to accept /familiar?/. He was a Type-B so they would have got a draft pick. I assume they settled to make sure he didn't win and make it harder/more expensive to move him. While they didn't get the draft pick, they lucked out when KC claimed him.

As for Ortiz, most in the media think the Red Sox are crazy and going to get killed today. Lauber is the only one that seems to have done some journalistic work:

Got a question about salary arbitration? Ask Tal Smith.

Smith, a longtime front office executive, is regarded as an arbitration expert. He handled his first case for the Yankees in 1974, the year Major League Baseball adopted arbitration, and has since founded a consulting firm that helps teams prepare their cases and make an argument. He was among the first executives to bring analytics and even advanced metrics into the process, and over the years, he has prepared nearly 1,000 cases and taken more than 160 to a hearing.
.
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“The fact that he’s being offered slightly more than what he made last year at an advancing age,” Smith said, “I think that in itself is pretty good.”

Edited by SoxScout, 13 February 2012 - 08:10 AM.

[EddieYost]

Maybe they misjudged his value. Could be that they thought we would be easy to trade at $2.05 million, but no one wanted him.

[TheoShmeo]

As others (including Felger) have said, the Sox lose either way. If they "win" the hearing, they risk an embittered Ortiz, and if he has a good year, the odds of him coming back in 2013 have likely been reduced. If they "lose," they're paying a lot for one year.

From the outside, it's hard to understand why the Sox and Ortiz could not have found a middle ground on a two-year deal and avoided this hearing.

[SoxScout]

As others (including Felger) have said, the Sox lose either way. If they "win" the hearing, they risk an embittered Ortiz, and if he has a good year, the odds of him coming back in 2013 have likely been reduced. If they "lose," they're paying a lot for one year.

From the outside, it's hard to understand why the Sox and Ortiz could not have found a middle ground on a two-year deal and avoided this hearing.

Does it get any more embittered than 2011 Ortiz? I'm guessing he got a wake-up call about how little he is valued on the open market. What-the-Helling a 2-year deal seems crazy to me, why do you want to lock him in for 2013? At this point, since we "flew by" the Luxury Tax threshold, I don't really think today means anything. I'm staring to think they settle and hugs and hand-pounds all around.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I have to assume that Ortiz accepted arbitration because his agent explored the free agent market and no one was willing to pay him an AAV higher than his previous salary ($12.5M). We've heard the Red Sox offered 2/18, so it's obvious they rightly didn't think he could get such a deal on the open market. I think they've not given in to a middle ground deal simply because they think their submitted offer is the ceiling of what Ortiz should be paid. That, and they think Ortiz's asking price in arbitration is too high for the arbiters to give him. It's been ten years since they've gone to arbitration...I have to think it's because they think they've got a good grip on when to hold the line and when they're better off settling in the middle. This is a hold the line situation.

And frankly, I don't think they're all that concerned with having an "embittered" Ortiz around for a year. If getting pissed off at the Sox motivates him to have another season on the level of 2011, they get their money's worth. Unless we think he's going to pull a Manny and try to shoot his way out of town, I can't see a downside to him being pissed. I also don't think they're all that concerned about a 37-year-old Ortiz not wanting to come back in 2013. They appear to have a feasible replacement plan for Ortiz in 2013 with Middlebrooks likely ready to step in and Youkilis there to DH.

[rembrat]

I have Ortiz winning. I don't think anyone in the game is a good comp for him.

[SaveBooFerriss]

I picked Ortiz to win, but I think there is a very good chance that they settle at the courthouse steps.

[BigMike]

I picked they will settle on the courthouse steps, but if that was not an option then I would have picked Ortiz to win. Although that may have been picking with my heart as i am rooting for him

[maufman]

If there's a hearing, how long until a decision is announced?

If the arbitrator takes a few days to decide, then there's no reason the two sides couldn't settle after the hearing. Avoiding the hearing is frequently a big part of the club's motivation to settle, so clubs tend to prefer to roll the dice once they failed to avoid the hearing, but this case might be different.

[SoxScout]

If there's a hearing, how long until a decision is announced?

Tomorrow morning based on how the other ones this season have gone.

[jsinger121]

Buster_ESPN Buster Olney




Sources: There is a settlement in the David Ortiz case, for the midpoint of $14.575 m. He had wanted 16.5m, club had offered 12.65m.

[EddieYost]

Good. It's an overpay IMO, but better than having Papi be mad all year.

[StuckOnYouk]

Unfortunately he'll find a way to get pissed, but if that gets him motivated, so be it.

[Mugsys Jock]

It's the best of a bad situation. I don't mind seeing the Sox overpay the man for past services and the very real possibility he could actually be worth $14.5 million this year... but unfortunately I think he'll still be pissed off.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

This is really the best scenario, it avoids the whole "Ortiz isn't worth what he wants because of XYZ reasons"

That being said, doesn't the 14.5mm price tag put them well beyond the luxury threshhold?

Any chance they up their offer to Oswalt now that they are beyond the threshhold anyway?

[Bowlerman9]

Any chance they up their offer to Oswalt now that they are beyond the threshhold anyway?

Isnt this backwards logic? Now that there is a 42% premium on every dollar spent, they would be less likely to overpay for someone.

If they wanted to pay him $6M knowing the actual cost would be $8.5M, it would be dumb for them to up their offer to $8M, unless they really thought he was worth costing $11.36M.

[cannonball 1729]

Maybe they misjudged his value. Could be that they thought we would be easy to trade at $2.05 million, but no one wanted him.

The Sox offered him arb because they thought he would get more than 2.05 mil on the open market, since teams signing Type B's didn't have to give up a draft pick and Graffanino was a serviceable infielder. Graffy's offers were lower than expected, so he surprised the Sox and accepted arbitration.

Edit:

That being said, doesn't the 14.5mm price tag put them well beyond the luxury threshhold?

No. That was what most people were assuming the number would be when they calculated the threshold numbers.

Edited by cannonball 1729, 13 February 2012 - 11:27 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

so they offered him 2 years, $18M and ended up signing him for 1 year, $14.5M?

Would 2 years, $22M way back when have been more preferable?

Settling is the best case at this point but still feel like the Sox handled this poorly.

[Yaz4Ever]

so they offered him 2 years, $18M and ended up signing him for 1 year, $14.5M?

Would 2 years, $22M way back when have been more preferable?

Settling is the best case at this point but still feel like the Sox handled this poorly.

I agree. I think 2/22-24M would've made Papi much happier and saved everyone a lot of grief. We'd pay him less AAV this year with a 2-year deal like that plus ensure him that we wanted him while also not pissing off a rabid fan base. Now we're paying him more this year which will limit even further what we can do to shore up the rotation/finalize the roster and we've got Sox fans agreeing with Papi (and rightly so) that the Sox screwed the pooch on this one. I'd rather have an underpaid Ortiz this year and an overpaid one next year, if it came to that.

[Plympton91]

so they offered him 2 years, $18M and ended up signing him for 1 year, $14.5M?

Would 2 years, $22M way back when have been more preferable?

Settling is the best case at this point but still feel like the Sox handled this poorly.

Unless they really only wanted him for one year all along, and the two-year offer was one of their non-offer, offers. Seems like they're planning on having Will Middlebrooks hitting 5th next season. Now, that would be an opening bid in the Worst Offseason Ever 2013 thread.

[someoneanywhere]

so they offered him 2 years, $18M and ended up signing him for 1 year, $14.5M?

Would 2 years, $22M way back when have been more preferable?

Settling is the best case at this point but still feel like the Sox handled this poorly.

I guess when you consider that they moved Scutaro to save $7 million, saving a year and $7 million here makes sense.

I'm as much a Papi homeboy as anyone. But I don't what this team getting old, and I don't want this team continually handcuffed by outrageously overvalued, and overextended, contracts. Papi doesn't like one-year deals, as we all know, and in 2011 he didn't quite conduct himself as he typically has in his Boston years. But he sure as hell produced on short-time. So I'm for anything that is more likely to produce a similar outcome.

Let's face it. Arb is designed to reward past performance. Free agency is designed to reward past performance. I want to pay for future performance. And it just so happens that paying for the future is best done pre-arb. Give me those guys: draft them, develop them, trade for them.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 13 February 2012 - 11:57 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I guess my point of view is this...if you think Papi is worth $15M this year, then isn't he likely worth at least $7M next year? Wouldn't the $4M savings in AAV have helped.

If they are so worried about a major decline, why not pass altogether?

Wondering if they hoped he would leave; the 2 year, $18M offer is one they knew he wouldn't accept, and were over the barrel when he accepted arb.

Either way, think we can plan on this being his last year here.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Either way, think we can plan on this being his last year here.

I think a lot of people probably said that when the sox did't tear up his option before last season. I see no reason why the sox wouldn't go year to year if Papi had another .900+ Ops year.

It's not a bad gamble on a player heading down the backslope of his career

[Lose Remerswaal]

Can they still negotiate a longer term deal?

Such as 2 years $25 million, where they pay him $10 million this year, and $15 million next year, thereby keeping it below the luxury tax threshold?

[StuckOnYouk]

Ortiz's personality is such that if he has a harsh drop off this year the Sox won't want him back for a 2nd year even if it is only for 5 mil. Because they will want the DH spot free and he will want to play even after a sucky year and there will be battle.
I think they're fine going year to year for him and next year they won't offer him arb after he takes a bit of a slide. If he wants to come back to a reasonable offer so be it (if the club is in fact interested).

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd rather have an underpaid Ortiz this year and an overpaid one next year, if it came to that.

You're assuming that we will want any Ortiz next year. It seems pretty clear from the way the Sox handled this that they're not making that assumption.

[maufman]

I guess my point of view is this...if you think Papi is worth $15M this year, then isn't he likely worth at least $7M next year? Wouldn't the $4M savings in AAV have helped.

If they are so worried about a major decline, why not pass altogether?

Wondering if they hoped he would leave; the 2 year, $18M offer is one they knew he wouldn't accept, and were over the barrel when he accepted arb.

Either way, think we can plan on this being his last year here.

If you believe LL's public statements, the Sox are going to be over the luxury tax threshold in 2012, which means they absolutely have to get under the threshold in 2013 to avoid severe financial consequences. In that context, paying 1/14 for Ortiz in 2012 makes more sense than paying 2/22 for 2012-13.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Fair point; although I'm surprised they couldn't get a 1 year + an option deal done.

1 year, $12.5M with a $12.5M option or $2.5M buyout, for example. Papi gets the same amount, and a 2nd year if he plays well this year.

[aron7awol]

Fair point; although I'm surprised they couldn't get a 1 year + an option deal done.

1 year, $12.5M with a $12.5M option or $2.5M buyout, for example. Papi gets the same amount, and a 2nd year if he plays well this year.

I agree, although if they are really going to try to get under the luxury tax threshold next season, this probably has to be his last year. Even with Ortiz and Dice-K coming off the books, it still might be difficult to get under. I have a feeling next offseason will be very disappointing.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Either way, think we can plan on this being his last year here.

Him or Youkilis.

If Youkilis can only stay healthy for 100-120 games for a third straight year -- while hitting at a lower OPS than Ortiz -- then 2013 may be WMB time.

[Rasputin]

I agree, although if they are really going to try to get under the luxury tax threshold next season, this probably has to be his last year. Even with Ortiz and Dice-K coming off the books, it still might be difficult to get under. I have a feeling next offseason will be very disappointing.

I think it's going to be ugly. We'll be facing negotiations with Youk and Ellsbury even assuming that Ortiz and Matsuzaka are simply jettisoned. Meanwhile we'll be faced with the prospect of Lackey coming back with no idea what he's going to be, no trade market, and enough money that he'll have to be given every shot at the job.

The Sox really have to hope that Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, and Iglesias turn themselves into decent 2013 options.

[maufman]

nm -- thanks to those who pointed out my error

Edited by maufman, 13 February 2012 - 02:59 PM.

[Plympton91]

I think it's going to be ugly. We'll be facing negotiations with Youk and Ellsbury even assuming that Ortiz and Matsuzaka are simply jettisoned. Meanwhile we'll be faced with the prospect of Lackey coming back with no idea what he's going to be, no trade market, and enough money that he'll have to be given every shot at the job.

The Sox really have to hope that Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, and Iglesias turn themselves into decent 2013 options.

You'll likely have an internal option for RF as well, be it Linares, Kalish, or Hassan. Plus, you also have Jenks coming off the books after this season, which gets you another $6 million. Lackey coming back with a sound elbow is something to look forward to, not dread.

[Pumpsie]

Ortiz will not be a member of the Red Sox next season for many reasons...money, roster flexibility, young player development. Unless something changes between now and then...injuries to other prospective DHs plus an unbelievably great 2012 from Ortiz, or something like that, the Sox have already decided this and I'm happy about it. If you can get a younger player to deliver 80% of what Ortiz does for 20% or less of the cost, PLUS have that player able to play an onfield position, you do that.

[aron7awol]

Iirc, the tax threshold goes up to $189mm in 2013, so getting under it next year will be easier than getting under this year would have been, but I agree that no major free-agent acquisitions are likely.

I'm pretty sure it's 2014 when it goes up to $189M, not 2013.

[Sprowl]

I agree, although if they are really going to try to get under the luxury tax threshold next season, this probably has to be his last year. Even with Ortiz and Dice-K coming off the books, it still might be difficult to get under. I have a feeling next offseason will be very disappointing.

Unfortunately, getting below the luxury tax threshold while carrying Crawford and Lackey on the books means that either this year or next, the team must accept losing veteran stars, including the then 37-year-old Ortiz, and replacing them with low-cost prospects. Given that Middlebrooks and Iglesias aren't ready in 2012 and might be in 2013, it does look like next offseason might be the second worst offseason ever.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Unfortunately, getting below the luxury tax threshold while carrying Crawford and Lackey on the books means that either this year or next, the team must accept losing veteran stars, including the then 37-year-old Ortiz, and replacing them with low-cost prospects. Given that Middlebrooks and Iglesias aren't ready in 2012 and might be in 2013, it does look like next offseason might be the second worst offseason ever.

God forbid the fans would have to watch exciting young prospects grow into a major leaguers before their very eyes.

[edited for the normal stupid spelling]

Edited by BCsMightyJoeYoung, 13 February 2012 - 03:27 PM.

[Sprowl]

God forbid the fans would have to watch exiting young prospects grow into a major leaguers before their very eyes.

If they are exiting, then we won't have the chance to watch them grow into major leaguers, will we? I'd much rather we have the chance to watch exciting young prospects, but if the team gets good trade value for them, I suppose that's alright.

[mauidano]

I remain optimistic that we will be able to put significant runs on the board. With a little luck with health, we are more competitive than most. Papi will do his part. Keeping runs off the board makes me more nervous. The young guys will have to seize the opportunity if they want to stick in the bigs. The above mentioned Middlebrooks, Lavarnaway, Iglesias will be ready. After last year's debacle, pride rules. Even Crawford will be better.

[maufman]

God forbid the fans would have to watch exiting young prospects grow into a major leaguers before their very eyes.

Many of us, unfortunately, feel we can't get excited about any of the Sox' prospects in the high minors without crossing the line between optimism and self-deception.

[Rasputin]

Many of us, unfortunately, feel we can't get excited about any of the Sox' prospects in the high minors without crossing the line between optimism and self-deception.

That's just silly. They don't have to immediately be able to replace the production of the player they are replacing to be exciting.

[maufman]

That's just silly. They don't have to immediately be able to replace the production of the player they are replacing to be exciting.

Never said they did. I'm just not excited at all about WMB or Lavarnway. Neither is likely to be league-average in The Show, unless Lavarnway sticks as a catcher.

Edited by maufman, 13 February 2012 - 03:27 PM.

[aron7awol]

Maybe the luxury tax situation for next year isn't so dire...

It appears that the Sox will end up at about $185M this season. Assuming Jenks and Matsuzaka are off the books, that's $14.67M of AAV off the books, which brings it down to $170.33M. Then there are the guys whose future we aren't sure about, Youkilis ($10.31M) and Ortiz ($14.58M). If the Sox retain neither of them, they get their 2013 commitment down to $145.44M. The buyout on Youk's option is $1M, and there are guys like Bailey, Salty, Ross, Sweeney, Shoppach, Aceves, Aviles, Albers, and Miller, who may be due for raises or may be cut. Ellsbury will likely get a raise of a few million as well. The important thing is that the Sox should have $20M+ to spend to replace/retain a 3B and DH. They really do still have a good amount of flexibility. If Middlebrooks is ready to take over 3B, retaining Youkilis as a DH/backup 3B for an additional $12M makes a lot of sense. Signing Ellsbury to a long term deal is even a possibility, whilst remaining under the luxury tax threshold.

After looking at all of this, I'm actually happier with a 1 year deal for Ortiz at $14.58M than a 2 year deal at a lower AAV. The additional flexibility is huge. However, a one year deal on a good starter like Jackson/Oswalt makes so much sense that I'm already pissed about missing out on Jackson, and will be even more pissed if they don't land Oswalt. Offer the man $10M, so it ends up costing $14M after taxes, big deal. It greatly improves the 2012 Sox and doesn't reduce the all important 2013 flexibility.

Edit: As an aside, I'm not convinced Middlebrooks will be ready to take over 3B next season. He still needs to cut down on the Ks and walk more, and also needs to prove himself a lot more than 400 good PAs in AA before I'm ready to anoint him the 3B of the future. Lavarnway, on the other hand, I'm very optimistic that the man will hit. If he can stick at C, I could easily see him becoming an All-Star with his potential to rake.

Edit2: Fixed Ellsbury FA error.

Edited by aron7awol, 13 February 2012 - 04:25 PM.

[Yaz4Ever]

You're assuming that we will want any Ortiz next year. It seems pretty clear from the way the Sox handled this that they're not making that assumption.

No, I was saying that I'd rather we did that not what I think the team wants. It seems pretty obvious that they want to go either year to year or cut ties. I don't see the harm in a two year deal worth 7-8M more than the one year deal as the AAV would be lower, Papi would enjoy the job security, and even if his skills declined significantly, he wouldn't be that much of an overpay for one year - especially when you factor in how much we've already gotten from him in return for our money.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Never said they did. I'm just not excited at all about WMB or Lavarnway. Neither is likely to be league-average in The Show, unless Lavarnway sticks as a catcher.

This is really undervaluing WMB who by just about every account projects to be a solid to above average major league starter.

If your talking about 2013-2014 you're gonna have Jacobs, Brentz, Iglesias all on the cusp of being ready. Remember by that time our low minors depth becomes high minors depth. Many of low minors all promise guys are poised to have break out years at AA this season and become top prospects. There are simply too many of them not to hit on at least one or two.

plus a very good draft this season to refill that low minors depth.

I think youth and flexibility is the way to go when you look at this organization