256 replies to this topic

[bakahump]

Not sure if "no one could replace Welkers production"

Edelman came into the Houston Game in 09 and looked like a 3 inch taller Welker with 10 catches for 103.

Going into 2010 (and before the weapon X program enhanced Welkers healing factor) this site and much of the MSM was confident that Edelman could hold the fort until Welkers knee was ready to go.

One game does not a career make. I get that.

But would he really need to replace Welkers production? Wouldnt 90% or even 75% be sufficient now with Gronknandezoyd and the (hopeful) reintroduction of RB screens?

Give Edelman the opportunity to refine his receiving as opposed to his DB skills and I dont think your really that badly off.

[quint]

Are you suggesting they rescind the offer and walk away from Welker?

[bakahump]

No. Though I did toy with the idea (and posted as much) earlier this off season of replacing him with Mike Wallace. Or even spending the "franchise money" on defense and adding an cheaper outside receiver instead.

I was simply referring to the belief that "without Welker the offense would suffer".

I probably over reacted and took the above qoute as "without Welker the offense would stagnate/fail". Without Welker we might not be a top 2 offense But we would certainly still be a top 5.

I think we as fans get used to the halcyon days of record setting teams. Think the 2004 Sox. Suddenly we needed a lineup capable of scoring 875-925 runs every year. Yet teams somehow win world series scoring @750-800 runs a year. I think we may have fallen into the same trap with the Pats offense. "We NEED Welker catching 125 balls and 1200 yards or the offense will fail!!" When we could allocate the money needed to keep "that Welker" to defense and be just as successful with a guy (like Edelman or a young replacement in the draft) catching 85 balls and 880 yards from the slot.

They had the money and people smarter then me thought that for 2012 Welker was worth 9 mil. Ok. Lets go to war. But no way do I want them giving him a long term 8,9,10 million/ year contract.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Wes Welker ‏ @WesWelker Reply
@williemcginest why did u ever leave the Pats and play for the Browns?

[jsinger121]

Wasn't up to Willie though he could have come back at a cheaper rate after he was cut by New England.

[bakahump]

Ouch. STFU via Twitter.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Wasn't up to Willie though he could have come back at a cheaper rate after he was cut by New England.

Kind of undercuts Willie's point that it wasn't all about the money with him, doesn't it?

Willie is telling Wes, sign your tender and be happy. Wes is pointing out that Willie himself left for more money elsewhere.

[NickEsasky]

This is why former players shouldn't comment about certain things. Especially when they live in expensive glass houses built with millions of Robert Kraft's money.

[jsinger121]

WillieMcGinest: @WesWelker My point exactly. We're all expendable at Patriot Place

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Of course unlike Willie, Wes has leverage right now and is acting upon it, like any sensible person would do. Wes is also working on one reconstructed knee right now, he'd be crazy not to attempt to maximize his earnings now while he can.

[Mystic Merlin]

His response tweet doesn't make a lick of sense to me in light of his initial argument against Welker's tactics. So Welker should be attending OTAs and mandatory minicamps because it would be the best thing to do for the team - which is what the organization is ostensibly all about. And, if he is expendable like all Patriots players, doesn't that suggest Willie's position is a pretty absolutist team-first-and-only one? Should Welker be grateful for the money he has already made (or, as Willie said, blessed with/given), and walk to?

Willie left for the money, so why is he begrudging Welker's attempt to get a long-term deal? He's 31 years old with one knee surgery under his belt, as well as a quadrillion catches worth of wear and tear. Sorry, but I don't see much difference in terms of loyalty to the Patriots between leveraging the franchise tag (which is in part designed to give the player some power, since the player reserves the right to sign it or not) for a potentially more favorable contract and leaving the organization altogether for the same reason. And Willie himself acknowledges that the team sees all players as expendable, i.e., doesn't show loyalty to players when it doesn't make financial sense to do so. Why the hell should players act any differently? Seems like yet another example (see: Troy Brown and Rodney Harrison) of old-guard players tsk-tsking the new crop of Patriots, and in the process inflating their own legends. It's pretty annoying to me at this point, and Welker is just about the worst possible target for such criticism. He's played under a below-market deal for his entire prime, been a consummate professional (feet jokes aside), and one of the best players on the team as well.

Guess what, Willie/Rodney/Troy? This group is forging its own claim to the Patriots' legacy, having just come a pubic hair from a Lombardi trophy. It's ok. Let it go. We still love you. You don't have to defend the organization's honor - one you also, again, say views players as dispensable - at every turn in an effort to remind us about how awesome you guys were. We remember. Now please leave these guys alone.

[BigSoxFan]

I think Bruschi is the worst among the old players. Why couldn't Welker have just caught that damn ball so he could tell Willie to STFU? Until a Patriots team finishes the job and wins another Lombardi trophy, the old guys are going to continue to tell the new guys how they should act in every situation. I don't blame Welker for being annoyed by it. He doesn't even want to sit out but he knows it's his only source of leverage so he has to.

[CaptainLaddie]

Ugh I had forgotten that Welker dropped that pass. Fuck.

[mpx42]

Wes Welker ‏ @WesWelker
Guess what would be the perfect Birthday gift? :)RT @Patriots: Happy Birthday to @WesWelker!

Now that's funny.

[Ed Hillel]

A time machine?

Too soon?

[Dogman2]

Now that's funny.

I need you to explain this tweet to me.

[amarshal2]

This is why former players shouldn't comment about certain things. Especially when they live in expensive glass houses built with millions of Robert Kraft's money.

I think Willie is trying to say that Wes is wasting his time with the hold-out because he really doesn't have leverage...not with the Patriots. He's expendable and if he acts like he's above the team, the only thing he's going to cost himself is preparation and/or playing time when the team just continues to move on.

I'm not certain Willie's right...but I can't think of a time this ended with a Patriot player getting more money from the Patriots. I sure could be wrong on that point, though.

edit: apologies dogman, I should have quoted the first time. Wasn't responding to you.

Edited by amarshal2, 01 May 2012 - 02:37 PM.

[Dogman2]

I don't see Willie's name in tweet hence my confusion.

[mpx42]

I need you to explain this tweet to me.

The Patriots official team account tweeted, "Happy Birthday to Wes Welker!"

And Wes replied where everyone could see: "Guess what would be the perfect birthday gift?

Obviously, money.

[Fishercat]

I think Willie is trying to say that Wes is wasting his time with the hold-out because he really doesn't have leverage...not with the Patriots. He's expendable and if he acts like he's above the team, the only thing he's going to cost himself is preparation and/or playing time when the team just continues to move on.

I'm not certain Willie's right...but I can't think of a time this ended with a Patriot player getting more money from the Patriots. I sure could be wrong on that point, though.

edit: apologies dogman, I should have quoted the first time. Wasn't responding to you.

It was a unique situation with the lockout, but Logan Mankins sat out for much of the season, did really well the last few weeks, and got an extension post-lockout from NE (I think the timeline is right).

[amarshal2]

It was a unique situation with the lockout, but Logan Mankins sat out for much of the season, did really well the last few weeks, and got an extension post-lockout from NE (I think the timeline is right).

I had thought of it but I'm not sure it applies. Sitting out did not immediately earn him a better contract. He came back and played at the behest of his agent so he would be an unrestricted free agent. The next year he got an extension after getting the franchise tab but without sitting out, right? I have no idea if he got more money than he was offered the previous off-season.

I suppose you could argue that sitting out the first time contributed to his extension the next off-season, but based on my knowledge of the situation that sounds flimsy.

[lexrageorge]

Richard Seymour held out of OTA's, mini-camp, and first week of training camp. They gave him a reporting bonus and a promise to rework his contract that offseason (which they did).

Asante Samuel held out and got a promise to not franchise him the next offseason. So there is the potential for leverage to be applied. He's technically still a free agent, and he's not under any obligation to sign the tender until November. So Welker is certainly acting within reason here, McGinest's tweets notwithstanding.

[Dogman2]

I think Willie is trying to say that Wes is wasting his time with the hold-out because he really doesn't have leverage...not with the Patriots. He's expendable and if he acts like he's above the team, the only thing he's going to cost himself is preparation and/or playing time when the team just continues to move on.

I'm not certain Willie's right...but I can't think of a time this ended with a Patriot player getting more money from the Patriots. I sure could be wrong on that point, though.

edit: apologies dogman, I should have quoted the first time. Wasn't responding to you.

No worries and thanks for the explanation Mpx42. I am a twitter dummy.

[weeba]

http://espn.go.com/b...s-not-miss-game

"There are 9.5 million reasons why I wouldn't miss any regular-season games," Welker said on the "Mut & Merloni" program.

[Ed Hillel]

Same thing he said earlier.

So why is he sitting out?

[weeba]

He wants $9.6 reasons?

[Royal Reader]

Saying he won't sit out any RS games seems to be spiking his own guns.

[MannysDestination]

The rest of that interview seemed to imply there's been progress on the contract extension front.

[weeba]

Just got an alert from the Bleacher Report iPhone app that Welker has signed the tender.

Nothing online that I can find yet.

Edited by weeba, 15 May 2012 - 12:26 PM.

[Corsi]

Welker has signed his tender.

[weeba]

Bedard - http://twitter.com/G...446625791148032

Patriots WR Wes Welker has signed his franchise tender, according to a league source.

Edited by weeba, 15 May 2012 - 12:28 PM.

[SoxScout]

Well, that's awesome.

I signed my tender today. I love the game and I love my teammates! Hopefully doing the right thing gets the right results. #leapoffaith

[Stitch01]

Great news. It sounds like he really wants to be here, hope this is a prelude to an acceptable longer-term deal sometime before 7/15.

[maufman]

Can someone who understands the business side of the NFL better than I do explain why players don't generally sign their franchise tags right away?

Yes, I understand that signing a tag makes a holdout impossible. For most players, however, an extended holdout (i.e., into the start of preseason games) is not a credible threat anyway. Welker is a perfect example -- the Pats wanted him back, but no one seriously thought he'd be sitting out come August if the Pats didn't offer him a long-term deal.

Also, with the new CBA's "salary floor," most teams won't have much cap room left by August -- a club could revoke the tag from a player who was still holding out at that time, and he would be unlikely to find even a comparable one-year deal elsewhere.

It seems to me the right play for most tagged players is to sign the tag right away. That way, the club knows the only way they're not taking that big cap hit is if they offer a long-term deal acceptable to the player. It's obvious, though, that aside from kickers, agents are advising their tagged clients not to sign the tag right away. I assume they understand something I'm missing. What?

[TheoShmeo]

I think the thing you might be missing is that by signing right away, the player gives up the ability to force the team into signing him to a longer term deal. If the team is willing to go year to year, then signing immediately means that the team may not have much incentive to negotiate further, especially if the player is older.

In this case, the Pats might prefer to go year to year with Welker. Welker would presumably rather sign for 3-5 years and get a huge chunk guaranteed. Now the only way that happens is if it happens on the team's terms and terms lower than what Welker might have been able to achieve had he waited.

This was the perfect storm for the team. You had a player who is a total gym rat and likely couldn't stand the idea of missing anything and who was looking at a position that was pretty well stacked by Belichick. And a player who had never made huge coin and couldn't resist locking in the $9.5 mm.

Very well played by the Pats all around. I'd like to see a sensible 3/$27 mm deal with a good part guaranteed, so there's good will on all sides and we get to see Welker in NE for two more seasons after this one. If Wes wont do a deal like that, I'd just go year to year and see what happens.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 16 May 2012 - 07:35 AM.

[wutang112878]

Once Welker signed his tag, he lost all his leverage. The 3yr $27M deal has been floated around a lot, but which do you think the Pats would really prefer? Going year to year with Welker for the next 2, and it could be in essence a 2yr $20M deal, or 3yrs $27M with virtually the same AAV? This is why Welker lost his leverage, because now they know he will play by their rules and do what they ask [ie sign the tag], they can do this same exact thing next year and they probably have a feeling he will again go with this. The leverage he would have had would was getting the team nervous thinking he might actually sit out some weeks, and losing time in training camp which he couldnt be fined for because he didnt sign his tender.

Unfortunately to get the deal he really wanted he had to be somewhat of a jerk. Things got a little nasty with Wilfork, but the result was him getting a decent deal. Things got really bad with Mankins but he eventually got the deal he wanted. I hope Welker gets the deal he wants, but based on his signing this I dont think he does. I think the Brady contracts are the only real big ones the Pats have given out as resigning type contracts that didnt get nasty, and IIRC I think with his 2nd or 3rd they even wanted him to take most of the guaranteed money as an option bonus that would be payable a year after he signed. Basically its good business for the Pats, but they try to treat all their guys just good enough to keep them and do everything in their power to not overspend by a dime, unfortunately its bad news for the Pats players.

[Ed Hillel]

Once Welker signed his tag, he lost all his leverage.

I disagree. I think Welker lost all his leverage a long ways back when he first said he was happy to play for the franchise number. Seems like his agent maybe told him that wasn't the best idea and tried a weak up-fake with a very tame holdout threat, but BB never bought into it.

[BigSoxFan]

I would have been willing to give him a Mike Lowell-esque mistake of a contract had he just caught that damn pass. Ok, I'm good now.

[wutang112878]

I disagree. I think Welker lost all his leverage a long ways back when he first said he was happy to play for the franchise number. Seems like his agent maybe told him that wasn't the best idea and tried a weak up-fake with a very tame holdout threat, but BB never bought into it.

Good point, I forgot about that quote and I cringed for Welker when I saw it because obviously the Pats realized instantly that he wouldnt hold out.

I hope he gets a decent deal because he was very, very underpaid during his last deal and he never said a thing, returned very quickly from the ACL and was everything the Pats want their players to be. Guys like Welker, Brady, Wilfork,and Mayo that do things the Patriots way do deserve to get market level deals when they hit free agency.

Also, this is another great example of a guy the Pats should have signed to an extension a little earlier. Sure the prime of his career is coming to an end, but if they had approached him a year ago he could have possibly got the $ he wanted and the Pats cap hits wouldnt have been so bad.

[BigJimEd]

I don't think the Pats ever really felt Welker would hold out. Too much money for him to pass up so I'm not sure he had much leverage.

Things got ugly with Mankins when he was a RFA and had a low tender. They were able to work out a long term deal after he signed the franchise.
Wilfork was unhappy about not getting an extension before his contract ran out but they didn't come to an agreement until after Wilfork played out his deal and received the franchise tag.


The benefit of a 3/27 deal for the Patriots is the third year. Welker's tender is 9.515, so next year tag would cost about 11.4. That brings it to 21M over 2 years. For the Pats it's a matter of weighing having Welker for a third year at 6M and giving him more guaranteed money now.


For Welker, I'm not sure 3/27 is worth it depending on how much the Pats were willing to guarantee. if he stays healthy and is productive this season then he is all but guaranteed 21M.I'm not sure the Pats would offer him that much in guarantee so it's how confident does he feel in staying healthy and productive for a season.

[weeba]

Who knows with any of this:

http://www.bostonher...leid=1061132283

Wes Welker knows he’s given up all his leverage when it comes to prying a longterm contract out of the Patriots [team stats]. That was the trade-off for signing his $9.5 million franchise tender so early and reporting for work.
According to the Pro Bowl receiver, his decision wasn’t made because there’s been progress in the negotiations, or he’s been encouraged a new deal is on the horizon. If anything, talks have gone in the opposite direction, Welker told the Herald today in an exclusive phone interview.
“There have been talks, but nothing that’s brightened anything at all,” Welker said. “It’s actually gotten worse.”

[soxhop411]

“There have been talks, but nothing that’s brightened anything at all,” Welker said. “It’s actually gotten worse.”When asked to define “worse,” Welker said the offer on the table is less than the two-year, $16 million fully guaranteed contract that was offered to him during the 2011 regular season.

RapSheet
.@kguregian with an exclusive with Wes Welker. Says contract talks have "gotten worse" #uhoh http://t.co/9fwh0a6c

Odds he is traded just went up IMO

[RedOctober3829]

Odds he is traded just went up IMO

Why would the odds of him getting traded go up because there is a snag in the negotiation? They have another year to negotiate. I wouldn't take this as a sign that he won't be here in 2014.

[Shelterdog]

Why would the odds of him getting traded go up because there is a snag in the negotiation? They have another year to negotiate. I wouldn't take this as a sign that he won't be here in 2014.

They actually have about two months to negotiate--he has to sign the contract by 7/16 or he can't sign until after the year. Now they could have an agreement in principle but that's a lot of risk on both sides of the table.

Anyhow, who's going to trade a one or a two for him?

Edited by Shelterdog, 17 May 2012 - 01:13 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

They actually have about two months to negotiate--he has to sign the contract by 7/16 or he can't sign until after the year. Now they could have an agreement in principle but that's a lot of risk on both sides of the table.

Anyhow, how's going to trade a one or a two for him?

Regardless of when they have negotiating rights, I wouldn't take him saying something to a reporter as a sign that he won't be back. As is the case with many negotiations, one side or the other will choose to negotiate a bit through the media to try to achieve any perceived leverage. Welker should be in a Patriot uniform for the next 3 seasons and then they should cut bait.

[maufman]

Regardless of when they have negotiating rights, I wouldn't take him saying something to a reporter as a sign that he won't be back. As is the case with many negotiations, one side or the other will choose to negotiate a bit through the media to try to achieve any perceived leverage. Welker should be in a Patriot uniform for the next 3 seasons and then they should cut bait.

If that's the goal, they should give him 5/40 ($10mm to sign, salaries of 4/5/6/7/8). Welker earns $25mm over 3 years with cap numbers of 6, 7 and 8 million, then the Pats take a $4mm dead-weight cap hit in 2015, by which time the Brady window is likely closed.

Edit: Might need to guarantee the second year to get Welker to sign that, but that's not a big risk -- the cap hit to cut him after one year would actually be greater than paying him in year 2.

Edited by maufman, 17 May 2012 - 12:41 PM.

[NickEsasky]

You have to consider them offering less after seeing where the market is for receivers as a bad sign if you are Welker and his agent. I think he screwed his chances for a long-term deal by signing the tender. Obviously I am sure he will take the 9 million, but I don't see him getting a deal close to what he wants.

[wutang112878]

The benefit of a 3/27 deal for the Patriots is the third year. Welker's tender is 9.515, so next year tag would cost about 11.4. That brings it to 21M over 2 years. For the Pats it's a matter of weighing having Welker for a third year at 6M and giving him more guaranteed money now.

I think the Pats look at this as a risk/reward situation. This year they get Welker for $9.5M, but there is no cap hit for next year, next year the tag goes up by ~$2M but thats an option they can use they arent locked into it. Most likely they would find value in tagging him again next year at ~$11M but it seems they would prefer to utilize that as an option instead of giving him a long term deal even if the guaranteed money was just $20M because they now have the option to 'opt out'. And unfortunately, just a guess, but I think by the 3rd year I think Bill thinks he will be on the decline based on Welker stature, the hits he takes and Bills comments in the NFL miked up season he did.

Thats not my opinion, just how I think they look at things. IMO, they should have ripped up the last year or maybe 2 of his last contract and signed him to a more team friendly extension at that point.

[tims4wins]

I have no problem with how they played it. Like wutang said, they now have an option for next year at ~$11.5M. If he plays well again this year, they can afford that hit. The real question would be 2014 and what they'd want to do if the cap doesn't increase much. The franchise tag would probably be $13.5-$14M, that may be getting too pricey. It's kind of like the David Ortiz situation in a way.

[wutang112878]

Just saw these comments from Wes in the Herald article, hopefully his agent is going nuts and I really wish someone like Wilfork could pull him aside and suggest that he start playing hardball:

“There have been talks, but nothing that’s brightened anything at all,” Welker said. “It’s actually gotten worse.”

Welker acknowledged attempting a harder-line stance last month, .....

“I think those techniques work better with other teams. I think the best thing you can do, as far as the Patriots, is be there and let them make the decision if they want to do something longterm or not,” said Welker, who indicated he planned on being at OTAs late next week. “Obviously, I want to be there. I want to help the team win. I want a championship and all those things. I’m trying to do everything to make that happen, and I’ll let everything else take care of itself.”

“The ball’s in their court. I just want to play,” he said. “At the end of the day, if it’s one year, $9.5 million, it’s one year, $9.5 million. I’m good with that.”

Could someone please explain to him that playing 'nice' with the Patriots will not get him the contract he wants, he gave up leverage saying he would sign the tender, gave up more by signing it, and is giving up even more saying he is ok without a long-term deal. Then he is suddenly surprised that the contract they put on the table after he signed is less than what they offered before? He either needs a new agent or he and his agent need to have a long serious sitdown