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Most Breaks/Mistakes Aided Super Bowl Win Ever?


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#1 Al Zarilla


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 02:10 PM

On Sunday, the Giants fumbled 3 times deep in their own territory and lost none of them (OK, a penalty negated one of them). The Welker drop and other drops by Branch and Hernandez were mistakes that were unmatched by the Giants. Can't completely say the Giants wouldn't have won without the bad execution by the Patriots, but these events sure helped.

I went back on all the other super bowls and came up with five others that could have gone either way but for key breaks.

SB 5 Colts John Mackey caught a 75 yd TD on a ball tipped by a teammate (before the rule change) in a mistake filled game. Colts won 16 - 13.

SB 13 Jackie Smith dropped a bunny in the end zone, Pittsburgh won 35 - 31. However, Steelers were up 35 - 24 in the fourth quarter so this one wasn't really all that close.

SB 25 Wide Right! Field goal was 47 yards on grass, so not an easy one. Giants 20 Bills 19.

SB 42 Eli's scramble and the helmet catch. Asante's drop. 17 - 14.

SB 43 You could say the Harrison 100 yd. int. return was the difference. The Steelers final drive was a ball buster but the Steelers did it when they had to. 27 - 23.

Others?

Giants won three of these five. OK, I'll say it. If there is such a thing as luck in football, the Giants are luckiest super bowl team in history.

#2 Greg29fan


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 02:21 PM

John Kasay's horrific kickoff out of bounds that gave the Pats the ball on the 40 yard line in the Panthers-Patriots Super Bowl. The Panthers had just come back to tie the game and had momentum prior to that.

#3 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 02:26 PM

It's funny how narratives are incubated, fed, nurtured, and raised.

In the same city, subbing in a different sport, if today's ticker-tape parade was another coronation of Jeter & Company, they'd be chalking it up to Mystique and Aura.

Luck never seems to be the lede when a football team wins out. I think "destiny" is a more preferred meme in the NFL.

Edit: missing ess

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 07 February 2012 - 02:26 PM.


#4 BigSoxFan


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 02:27 PM

I don't see this thread ending well. Regardless, there are "lucky" components in every single football game. The Patriots got "lucky" against Baltimore who one week prior got "lucky" against Houston when they recovered all those fumbles. I'd say the "luckiest" SB-winning team in recent memory was Pittsburgh when the refs basically gave them every call against the Seahawks. In the end, the past 2 SB's really should make Patriots fans appreciate just how fortunate the team was from 2001-2004. Unfortunately, we're seeing the other side of the coin now.

#5 Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:09 PM

This goes back to the point I made in a different thread, about overvaluing Super Bowls -- or championships is any U.S. sport. Football is an extreme example because the championship is determined by a single game which, as the opening post in this thread so ably points out, often turns on "luck." Or perhaps a better word is "randomness." Of course, even without much ramdomness, a single game tells us next to nothing about either team involved. Even a 4-of-7 series tells us almost nothing. According to this article, citing John J. Kinney's A Probability and Statistics Companion, to determine the better team (in baseball, anyway) would require a 257-game series. And even then, it would give only 95 percent certainty, not 100 percent.

But the mythology (or "narrative") of American sports tells us that certain games are "bigger" than others. In reality, they are not.

The reality of the Patriots with Brady as quarterback is this: 140 wins, 41 losses, including postseason. That's a winning percentage of .773. Look at it this way, if the Red Sox had a single season at that winning percentage, which would be a 125-win season, we'd all be talking about it for the rest of our lives. That would be the greatest team of all time.

Anyway, for that matter, Brady's regular season WP (124-35, .786) isn't all that different from his SSS postseason mark (16-6, .727). In my opinion, all talk about this Brady's legacy should focus on that, not on the bad (or good) breaks in a few games that each just happened to be the final game of the season.

Edited by Gene Conleys Plane Ticket, 07 February 2012 - 03:53 PM.


#6 BucketOBalls


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:10 PM

Giants won three of these five. OK, I'll say it. If there is such a thing as luck in football, the Giants are luckiest super bowl team in history.


I believe the saying is "it's better to be lucky than good".

Almost every football game that is won by less than 7 points usually has a play or 2 that would have tipped it the other way. Still say the biggest luck factor in that game was Gronk getting hurt(that pretty much cancels any 'luck' they had vs Baltimore). .

#7 Myt1


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:11 PM

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

#8 Dehere

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:23 PM

It's easy to overstate the influence of luck on this particular game. The fumble negated by the 12 men penalty wasn't luck, it was an unforced mental error by the Pats. The drops mentioned above weren't luck so much as a simple failure to make plays.

The expected value of two fumbles is one turnover, so of the Giants two fumbles on non-penalized plays you'd have to say that one recovery was an expected outcome and the other was truly lucky. The Giants had one lucky play on Sunday. The Pats had none.

#9 dcmissle


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:25 PM

I don't see this thread ending well. Regardless, there are "lucky" components in every single football game. The Patriots got "lucky" against Baltimore who one week prior got "lucky" against Houston when they recovered all those fumbles. I'd say the "luckiest" SB-winning team in recent memory was Pittsburgh when the refs basically gave them every call against the Seahawks. In the end, the past 2 SB's really should make Patriots fans appreciate just how fortunate the team was from 2001-2004. Unfortunately, we're seeing the other side of the coin now.


Games like this are reflective of and produce madness.

It is insane, even momentarily, to invest one's happiness so heavily in an event over which you have no control.

Then look at the aftermath sprinlked throughout the threads. Brady's warts, BB's miscalculations. When we're a .500 team at best without the former and in the game Sunday only because of the defensive genius of the latter. (Yeah, I used the word. Condemn him as a GM if you want, but did anyone in his right mind think we'd likely be in the game, much less hold the Giants to 19 points defensively?)

Thankfully, BB is likely at work right now trying to maximize the 3 maybe 4 years left in Brady's career.

#10 Toe Nash

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:30 PM

It's easy to overstate the influence of luck on this particular game. The fumble negated by the 12 men penalty wasn't luck, it was an unforced mental error by the Pats. The drops mentioned above weren't luck so much as a simple failure to make plays.

But it's luck that they happened to lose a fumble on the same play that the Patriots made the unforced mental error.

#11 bakahump

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:30 PM

I believe the saying is "it's better to be lucky than good".


And As my Gramp used to say...."Its even better to be both...."

And Sunday we where neither.

#12 Buffalo Head

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:44 PM

The Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII probably had the worst series of breaks to cost a team a game.

1. Jackie Smith drops the sure TD that would have made it 21-21 late third quarter

2. Bennie Barnes falls down covering Lynn Swann on a third-down jump ball by Bradshaw. Swann trips over Barnes. One official rules incomplete, but another official overrules and calls pass interference. The "incidental contact" rule comes into being largely based on this call.

3. Franco Harris scores on a 22-yard run up the gut a couple plays later to make it 28-17. Safety Charlie Waters has the angle to tackle Harris, but bumps into an official and falls down. Harris scores untocuhed.

4. Roy Gerela falls down on the ensuing kickoff, which becomes a squib up the middle. Randy White winds up fielding it, with a huge cast on his hand. He fumbles and Pittsburgh recovers. Swann scores next play. 35-17.

It all happened in a span of about 5 minutes.

#13 Shelterdog


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 03:55 PM

But it's luck that they happened to lose a fumble on the same play that the Patriots made the unforced mental error.


I'm not 100 percent on this. It wasn't a technical 12 men on the field because somebody didn't get to the sideline in time, we had 12 fucking guys playing the whole down. The odds of a good defensive play (if not a fumble) were in our favor, and the odds of recovering a fumble have to be better with 12 guys than 11.

#14 Captaincoop

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 04:03 PM

The Giants-Bills Super Bowl should not be on this list. The Giants beat the ever-loving snot out of that high-powered Bills offense, and the Bills were left with a pretty deep field goal for the win as a result. I wouldn't think about that as a tough break for the Bills - they just got worked over.

Fumbling the ball three times and losing none of them, then winning by a slim margin...that's pretty lucky.

#15 Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 04:11 PM

Slightly off-topic, but this article on Slate points out that in terms of Win Probablity, the entire game on Sunday came down to five plays, the most important of which was the Welker drop.

Any of these five plays could easily have gone the other way. In total they represent 0.73 WP—nearly the entire difference between winning and losing.



#16 NYCSox


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 04:14 PM

I don't see this thread ending well. Regardless, there are "lucky" components in every single football game. The Patriots got "lucky" against Baltimore who one week prior got "lucky" against Houston when they recovered all those fumbles. I'd say the "luckiest" SB-winning team in recent memory was Pittsburgh when the refs basically gave them every call against the Seahawks. In the end, the past 2 SB's really should make Patriots fans appreciate just how fortunate the team was from 2001-2004. Unfortunately, we're seeing the other side of the coin now.


Sigh, not this garbage again.

#17 Ed Hillel


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 04:25 PM

The Giants had some luck Sunday, but that's the case in any game. The luckiest drive I have ever seen, however, was the Giants' last in SB42. If you have the strength, go back and watch. Jacobs gets hit behind the line on 4th down and falls like a foot over the line, Harrison lets an INT right through his hands on like the 5th play, Asante, Tyree, Manning actually fumbles and the Pats recover, but the refs call him down by contact and nobody speaks of it again, and a few plays after, Eli floats one off his back foot that tips off Merriweather's fingertips and is almost caught again by I think Tyree. It's the most unbelievable drive of all-time.

:(

#18 BigSoxFan


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 04:58 PM

Sigh, not this garbage again.


You won. The game's over. No harm in admitting that many big calls went your way.

#19 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 05:15 PM

This is a stupid topic.

Why do this? Why subject yourself to this kind of shit?

The whole message board world is laughing at this topic.

#20 Remagellan

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 05:49 PM

SB 25 Wide Right! Field goal was 47 yards on grass, so not an easy one. Giants 20 Bills 19.


Giants won three of these five. OK, I'll say it. If there is such a thing as luck in football, the Giants are luckiest super bowl team in history.


The Giants held the ball for over 40 minutes in that game. When the Bills sent Scott Norwood out to attempt that 47 yard FG on grass, he was attempting to do something he had NEVER DONE in his career. At that point, Norwood was 1-5 on FG attempts over 40 on grass in his career (0-6 for attempts 50+) and the one he made was under 47 yards.

If your defense has forced the opposing coach to ask his kicker to set a career long to win a game and he fails, that's not luck.

#21 Remagellan

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 05:56 PM

The Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII probably had the worst series of breaks to cost a team a game.

1. Jackie Smith drops the sure TD that would have made it 21-21 late third quarter

2. Bennie Barnes falls down covering Lynn Swann on a third-down jump ball by Bradshaw. Swann trips over Barnes. One official rules incomplete, but another official overrules and calls pass interference. The "incidental contact" rule comes into being largely based on this call.

3. Franco Harris scores on a 22-yard run up the gut a couple plays later to make it 28-17. Safety Charlie Waters has the angle to tackle Harris, but bumps into an official and falls down. Harris scores untocuhed.

4. Roy Gerela falls down on the ensuing kickoff, which becomes a squib up the middle. Randy White winds up fielding it, with a huge cast on his hand. He fumbles and Pittsburgh recovers. Swann scores next play. 35-17.

It all happened in a span of about 5 minutes.


Really well done!

I'd also add in Super Bowl VII, which the NFL Network rebroadcasted in its entirety a couple of years ago, on the Redskins' best drive into Dolphins territory, Billy Kilmer threw a pass to a wide open Jerry Smith that hit the crossbar of the goalpost, which was on the goal line back then.

#22 Oil Can Dan

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 05:59 PM

Football is a funny game. A game of inches on a 120 yard field of play. And it has an oblong ball that is difficult to handle and bounces around in an odd fashion.

Is there an element of luck involved in football? Hell yes. But them's the breaks and you just have to accept it and move along. I mean, you can play 'what if' all you'd like, but it really does not matter and history will most likely not remember any of it.

The Niners backup punt returner fumbled those balls. The Ravens WR did not catch that pass. Tom Brady and Wes Welker did not connect.

That's the bottom line.

#23 BigSoxFan


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 06:08 PM

Football is a funny game. A game of inches on a 120 yard field of play. And it has an oblong ball that is difficult to handle and bounces around in an odd fashion.

Is there an element of luck involved in football? Hell yes. But them's the breaks and you just have to accept it and move along. I mean, you can play 'what if' all you'd like, but it really does not matter and history will most likely not remember any of it.

The Niners backup punt returner fumbled those balls. The Ravens WR did not catch that pass. Tom Brady and Wes Welker did not connect.

That's the bottom line.


Yup. The only people who remember this stuff (unless it's incredibly blatant) are the fans of the 2 teams involved. Wes Welker is this season's Rashard Mendenhall. Next year, there will be a new guy.

#24 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 07:00 PM

Football is a funny game. A game of inches on a 120 yard field of play. And it has an oblong ball that is difficult to handle and bounces around in an odd fashion.

Is there an element of luck involved in football? Hell yes. But them's the breaks and you just have to accept it and move along. I mean, you can play 'what if' all you'd like, but it really does not matter and history will most likely not remember any of it.

The Niners backup punt returner fumbled those balls. The Ravens WR did not catch that pass. Tom Brady and Wes Welker did not connect.

That's the bottom line.

Exactly.

#25 Dehere

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 08:49 PM

Football is a funny game. A game of inches on a 120 yard field of play.

Yeah, good post. It's heartbreaking sometimes but if it were predictable it wouldn't be as popular or as much fun.

#26 abty

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 09:42 PM

One thing to consider is that luck consists of many variables outside of fumbles (i.e injuries, game changing self inflicted penalties, bad ref calls etc - things that no team can control that hurts one team and helps the other). That's why one team will miss out on 3 fumbles and be understandably upset if they lose - while the other team wonders how they won when their RB was hit by sideways lightning and burst into a pile of hot dogs. Who is the 'lucky' team? Who knows? Shit happens. That's why they call it football.

Posted Image

#27 sodenj5

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 09:48 PM

This whole topic is ironic due to the fact that the Patriots made it to the Super Bowl because a Pro Bowl kicker shanked a chip shot.

#28 dcmissle


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Posted 07 February 2012 - 09:49 PM

Football is a funny game. A game of inches on a 120 yard field of play. And it has an oblong ball that is difficult to handle and bounces around in an odd fashion.

Is there an element of luck involved in football? Hell yes. But them's the breaks and you just have to accept it and move along. I mean, you can play 'what if' all you'd like, but it really does not matter and history will most likely not remember any of it.

The Niners backup punt returner fumbled those balls. The Ravens WR did not catch that pass. Tom Brady and Wes Welker did not connect.

That's the bottom line.


You have had some excellent posts today. This one and the one on Brady (that hopefully will restore some sanity) come to mind.

At least since Vince Lombardi (and probably since Knute Rockne) football has been viewed as a morality play; people seek in it more meaning than the sport can realistically deliver. But the pattern has accelerated as football has taken the center stage in American sports. More and more resources are devoted to it; it's the centerpiece of a powerhouse four-letter network that didn't exist 30 years ago; we seek perfection in instant replay, understanding in statistical analysis, and we burn our precious free time in something called fantasy.

People 30 to 40 years ago recognized the breaks, accepted them, and moved along. So anyone who lived through the Steelers' dynasty understood well that the team could easily have lost 2 of the 4 Super Bowls (against the Cowboys, noted above, and the Rams). Anyone who can recall the Dolphins' perfect season recognizes that this was a very flawed 'perfect' team -- and a betting underdog in the SB against the Redskins.

We don't easily accept the random, capricious and sometimes cruel aspects of this game, which is the reality that this sport does regularly deliver.

No one has been more guilty of this that us Patriots fans. We viewed the outcome of those three SBs, amazingly, almost as a referendum on our character. The is one true way, the Patriot Way. Led by the little engine that could, Tom Brady. Now the worm has turned because of a few irregular bounces and bad breaks, and we find the most amazing posts.

#29 geoduck no quahog

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 07:13 AM

Edit: After reading Bishop's piece in the IHT today, I disavow everything I just wrote as being too similar to this living asshat's commentary.

Edited by geoduck no quahog, 08 February 2012 - 04:17 PM.


#30 axx

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Posted 09 February 2012 - 09:57 PM

Really? The Patriots were extremely lucky to get as close to winning the SB as they did.

Consider:

- Very easy schedule, including a weak division
- Injuries to Peyton, Schaub, Big Ben
- Tebow somehow beating the Steelers
- Evans and Cundiff
- The Giants ball control (really awful, they tried)
- Bradshaw not sitting down at the 1

Funny, Gronk was in decent position to catch the hail mary. Too banged up I guess. That would have been the perfect ending.

#31 kartvelo

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Posted 09 February 2012 - 10:19 PM

For a split second I actually thought Gronk had it off the tip, until I saw it squirting out the back of the end zone.

http://www.sportsgri...ding-hail-mary/

#32 Ed Hillel


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Posted 10 February 2012 - 07:51 AM

They did a Sports Science segment and showed that gronk innately took an extra step with his right foot because of his injury that slowed him down. They said healthy Gronk pushes off his left and probably catches it.

Feel better now?

#33 BigSoxFan


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Posted 10 February 2012 - 09:25 AM

They did a Sports Science segment and showed that gronk innately took an extra step with his right foot because of his injury that slowed him down. They said healthy Gronk pushes off his left and probably catches it.

Feel better now?


Eh, we have no clue where Gronk would have been on that play had he been fully healthy. Hell, we may have been kneeling on the ball as well. Bottom line is that the team just didn't make the plays needed to win. Annoying but I can live with that.

#34 abty

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 10:08 AM

Really? The Patriots were extremely lucky to get as close to winning the SB as they did.

Consider:

- Very easy schedule, including a weak division
- Injuries to Peyton, Schaub, Big Ben
- Tebow somehow beating the Steelers
- Evans and Cundiff
- The Giants ball control (really awful, they tried)
- Bradshaw not sitting down at the 1

Funny, Gronk was in decent position to catch the hail mary. Too banged up I guess. That would have been the perfect ending.


RIP Axx. Jk. Hey, does Vince get an Oscar this year?

Vince Wilfork admits he flopped - it killed the Giants honest/clean 3rd and 1 conversion with 4 or so minutes to go in the first half. Instead of the Pats getting the ball back and ending the half on a TD, the Giants still have the ball and can make it 12-3 or 16-3. Somehow, I think that changes the game completely. (2+ minutes into the video you'll see it - keep playing it til he talks to the refs).

http://www.nfl.com/v...continuous=true

Imagine the game if the Giants hadn't lost that possession. Imagine the psychological edge the Giants keep instead of it being for the Patriots. Maybe it's a coincidence the Patriots scored 2 td's in 2 possessions after that and nothing much after. But I am sure Brady wouldn't want to find out. Oh, well. After a ton of pre season injuries, the toughest 6 game stretch in any schedule (Road Patriots, Road 49'ers, Eagles, Road Saints, Packers, Road Cowboys) and the refs fucking us in Green Bay, I'll take the luck in San Fran/S.B. The first 19 weeks were the opposite of lucky. How about your first 19 weeks, Patriot fans? Would you like to compare our luck for that time period?

That's life. Give Credit. Move on.

Edited by abty, 10 February 2012 - 10:11 AM.


#35 Super Nomario

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 12:22 PM

The "luck" thing is pretty irrelevant, but I think it's worth evaluating whether the NFL playoffs have become a complete crap-shoot. The Giants this year were the first 9-7 team to win the Super Bowl. The 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers were only the second and third 10-6 teams to win the Super Bowl, and the first (the 1988 49ers) were actually a two-seed. The 2001 Pats were only the second 11-5 team to win it all, and the Steelers followed a few years after that. That's 5 Super Bowl winners with 5 or more losses in the last 11 seasons after only 2 in the previous 23 years of the 16-game schedule.

Some possible theories:
- Re-aligning to four divisions has made it easier for 9-7 and 10-6 teams to make the playoffs
- Increased parity means the "any given Sunday" axiom has never been more true
- The NFC's dominance over the AFC from '84 to '96 is the real factor (7 of the AFC champs over this time period were 11-5, and one was 10-4-1)
- The salary cap has made it harder to be continuously dominant like the 49ers and Cowboys were
- Home-field advantage isn't what it used to be
- The NFL being more passing-based leading to greater-variance outcomes

Has the NFL reached the point MLB is it, where you just try to make the playoffs and then it's just a coin-flip?

#36 tims4wins


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Posted 10 February 2012 - 12:30 PM

Not to mention the 8-8 Cardinals came thisclose to winning it all.

Another interesting factoid is the amount of non-bye teams that have made the Super Bowl in the last 10 years. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'd guess it's significantly higher than it was during the first 23 years of the 16 game schedule.

One thing that I think parity has done is increase the number of regular season losses for good teams. In the past, good teams would beat who they were supposed to, and rack up the wins. This year, the Giants lost to the Redskins twice, and Seattle at home. It didn't mean the Giants weren't good, it meant that the margin between teams is pretty thin these days.

All of which is a long-winded way of saying that the NFL playoffs are much more of a crapshoot than they were 10 years ago.

#37 Al Zarilla


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Posted 10 February 2012 - 01:35 PM

So many of the games are ridiculously close now as well. Just in super bowls, the average margin of victory from 1/84 through 1/95 was 23 points. The last 12: 9.83 points. Throw out the Ravens/Giants and the Bucs/Raiders games and it's 6.4.

#38 Michelle34B

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 01:43 PM

So many of the games are ridiculously close now as well. Just in super bowls, the average margin of victory from 1/84 through 1/95 was 23 points. The last 12: 9.83 points. Throw out the Ravens/Giants and the Bucs/Raiders games and it's 6.4.


The New York Football Giants weren't so "lucky" in that one...

There's the Keith Hamilton hold on the Jessie Armstead pick-6 called back, and Kerry Collins throwing a pick-6 to Chris McAllister in the flat(right before the half too :( ), but that's about there is to look back on in that game and say what if...

#39 Dehere

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Posted 10 February 2012 - 11:45 PM

Been thinking about this a bit too since noticing earlier in the week that only two of the last 11 champs were 1 seeds. That floored me. I don't think the playoffs have become a crapshoot but if you look at the distribution of the seeds of the champions over the last 12 years it doesn't suggest that a 1 or 2 seed has a lot of special value.

I think there's something to the idea that home field isn't what it used to be. I read earlier this year that Vegas now considers HFA worth 2 points in the NFL rather than the traditional 3. It's not just that the newer stadiums aren't as loud, although I think that in many cases they aren't. Road teams travel in much greater comfort than they did in earlier eras. Every team travels by charter and stays at the best available hotels. Visiting locker rooms in the newer stadiums are spacious.

I think the timing of when teams get healthy is a big factor. In two recent cases including this year we've seen champions whose regular season records were impacted by mid-season health issues and therefore not reflective of their true level. The 2005 Steelers, IMO, were undoubtedly one of the four best teams in the league that year, but they lost Roethlisberger for a few games mid-year and ended up needing to win a couple in a row in December just to get in as a 6 seed.

It has to be just a tiny bit worrisome for the league because a big part of the NFL's sell is that every game is hugely important, and a big reason every game matters so much is because playoff seeding is supposed to have a huge bearing on the championship. If fans start to feel like the difference between being the 10-6 #5 seed and the 14-2 #1 seed isn't that great as long as your team is healthy that becomes a problem for the league.

#40 Salva135


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Posted 11 February 2012 - 12:07 AM

Been thinking about this a bit too since noticing earlier in the week that only two of the last 11 champs were 1 seeds. That floored me. I don't think the playoffs have become a crapshoot but if you look at the distribution of the seeds of the champions over the last 12 years it doesn't suggest that a 1 or 2 seed has a lot of special value.

I think there's something to the idea that home field isn't what it used to be. I read earlier this year that Vegas now considers HFA worth 2 points in the NFL rather than the traditional 3. It's not just that the newer stadiums aren't as loud, although I think that in many cases they aren't. Road teams travel in much greater comfort than they did in earlier eras. Every team travels by charter and stays at the best available hotels. Visiting locker rooms in the newer stadiums are spacious.

I think the timing of when teams get healthy is a big factor. In two recent cases including this year we've seen champions whose regular season records were impacted by mid-season health issues and therefore not reflective of their true level. The 2005 Steelers, IMO, were undoubtedly one of the four best teams in the league that year, but they lost Roethlisberger for a few games mid-year and ended up needing to win a couple in a row in December just to get in as a 6 seed.

It has to be just a tiny bit worrisome for the league because a big part of the NFL's sell is that every game is hugely important, and a big reason every game matters so much is because playoff seeding is supposed to have a huge bearing on the championship. If fans start to feel like the difference between being the 10-6 #5 seed and the 14-2 #1 seed isn't that great as long as your team is healthy that becomes a problem for the league.


But yet, that is exactly what the NFL wants, isn't it? The more parity/variance, the more teams that have a realistic chance of winning it all, the more fans stay glued to their team all season long and come out/tune in to the games. Your "problem" is only a problem for elite teams such as the Patriots who are adept at beating teams they are favored against during the regular season and positioning themselves for the postseason.

You could already get that sense on this board this year. Was anyone really "excited" about the 1 seed and HFA? Of course not, especially after last year. The general sentiment after every win, no matter how big or dramatic was, "yeah, but... our defense still sucked, we're not winning shit this year." It's only going to be worse next season. The Pats could blow every team out 50-0 and go 18-0 and everyone will be bitching along the way and scared shitless come kickoff of the big game, because there'd be a scrappy 9-7 team ready and confident to pick us off. We're just at that point from a fan's experience with this team.

Edited by Salva135, 11 February 2012 - 02:24 AM.


#41 CaptainLaddie


  • dj paul pfieffer


  • 19,560 posts

Posted 11 February 2012 - 04:46 AM

Seriously. Can we just lock and destroy this thread? It's god damn dumb.

#42 SMU_Sox


  • cried at Les Miz


  • 3,339 posts

Posted 11 February 2012 - 01:31 PM

Seriously. Can we just lock and destroy this thread? It's god damn dumb.


Yep. There are some interesting nuggets in here but yeah, start a new thread.




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