161 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

In the past, after a crushing Patriots postseason loss, I would always turn around and start the countdown until pitchers and catchers, the first spring game, and eventually Opening Day. The healing process would start immediately because I could turn my attention to the Red Sox and soon the pain would be a distant memory.

This year, I'm not feeling that so much and am wondering if perhaps I'm not alone.

I think the Red Sox are going to be better than many are giving them credit for, but I just can't get myself fired up about them.

[Foulkey Reese]

I am always very, very excited for baseball. It's the best thing in the world.

As far as the Sox they might not be as good as we're used to, but they're good enough to compete and that's all you can really ask for.

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 06 February 2012 - 01:36 PM.

[soxfan121]

Fourth place, here we come. They've done nothing to improve the team in the offseason, there are very few players who are obvious candidates to improve, a couple who are obvious candidates to regress, have an entirely new (and not as good) bullpen, are converting their best RP into an SP because he asked for it, have a collection of Sanford-esque junk penciled into the bottom of the rotation, have no capable major league SS, will come to camp with significant injuries, have a new manager who inspires fear and worry and the team wants to avoid the luxury tax.

85 wins in this division is probably 4th place this season. The Jays are better. The Rays are very good. The Yankees are always good. Anaheim & Texas got better, meaning the WC is not a consolation prize.

I haven't been this pessimistic on a Red Sox season since the 2001 offseason (leading into 2002).

[Hendu's Gait]

Next season has Twins 1987 written all over it.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Sox were a very good team last year, and will be better next year. I'm extremely excited, irrational pessimists be damned. This team is going to be a lot better than many expect.

[BellhornsBiatch]

I feel like this is not my team. I don't know any other way of explaining it, but for whatever reason this season does not feel like the season I was looking forward to when we lost Super Bowl 42. Seeing Cherington and Valentine doing the Town Hall thing the other night didn't do much to alleviate that feeling either.

[RedOctober3829]

It's hard to get excited about anything right now let alone a team that completely fell on it's face, had a very public meltdown, and was mocked by the baseball world since the end of last season. Throw in the fact that the manager and GM that built the championship teams are gone and the roster not improving and you can see the cause for pessimism.

[JimBoSox9]

They'll be in the playoff mix. The talent level on this team is still very, very good. If there's a concern, it comes from the Rangers, Angels, Tigers, and Yankees all making significant moves this offseason. It hurts to see them upgrading while the Sox mostly stand pat. Then I take comfort in remembering JUST HOW FUCKING BAD the 4-5 starting rotation spots were last year, knowing that Valentine isn't going to be the disaster I expect in year one, hoping that Bard is going to be a stud, and thinking that Crawford is going to rebound like a mofo.

I expect the 2012 Sox will be slightly worse offensively, slightly better defensively, and significantly better starting pitching. As long as the back end of the bullpen holds up w/o Bard, I'm confident they will contend.

And, to answer the thread question, it's fucking BOSTON RED SOX BASEBALL. Of course I'm excited. Jacked and pumped.

[mauidano]

Football is just something to do while waiting for baseball. Sad for the Pat's but looking ahead to pitchers and catchers in 12 days. Bring it!

[sachilles]

I'm not necessarily excited to see the season start because of off season moves and acquisitions.
I'm excited to see the season start, so I can see if the players have a chip on their shoulder from last years debacle. I want to see that last year was enough of an embarrassment, that they come into the season ready to work hard.
If they start of slow, there will be a media circus, and I really have no desire to see that.

[BucketOBalls]

Probably the most depressing thing is there doesn't seem to be much capacity for surprise. No real new blood, no young players to get excited about who could break out, etc. Heck, we don't even have the chance of Crawford earning his yearly salary. It's not like they have the payroll to do anything midyear.

Literally the only thing i can think of is Bard turning into a good starter. And if he had problems with overuse last year....his endurance probably isn't up to it. The only player in the player in the minors who seems to have much potential to break out is Lavarnway and he's blocked so it's more like has the potential to fill in well if someone gets hurt rather than actually raise the teams talent level.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 06 February 2012 - 02:13 PM.

[CheapSeats]

I'm really excited because there are so many unknowns.

It's like a long term relationship that was pretty great for a really long time, but ended abruptly in a sea of insults and fried chicken. You swore off dating for a while and took on the football season, but have now found someone new. They're not the same as your ex; they're new and exciting in different ways. 6 months from now you hope to still be together, finding out that they are not crazy -as is sometimes realized in the first 6 months-, but instead do things with their tongue that your ex has only seen on redtube.

Things are different now, and I look forward to seeing how the team responds to that fact.

[rembrat]

The Sox were a very good team last year, and will be better next year. I'm extremely excited, irrational pessimists be damned. This team is going to be a lot better than many expect.

You and Plympton should form a club.

Not really excited for this season, no. I feel like there are a lot of not-so smart people running the show now. Also, Nick Punto, Starting Shortstop.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Also, Nick Punto, Starting Shortstop

There's no reason to think Punto will start over Aviles.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

It's hard to get excited about anything right now let alone a team that completely fell on it's face, had a very public meltdown, and was mocked by the baseball world since the end of last season. Throw in the fact that the manager and GM that built the championship teams are gone and the roster not improving and you can see the cause for pessimism.

Perhaps you weren't around, but I remember a time when almost every season seemed to end with the team falling on its face and the GM and manager were always complete idiots and the roster rarely improved much from year to year. It was called "The Yawkey Era." But I stil got excited for baseball every year anyway.

Pitchers and catchers in two weeks. It's almost springtime and hope springs eternal. Plus, we've got an extremely talented team. What's not to get excited about? It's baseball. The other sports are great, but nothing compares.

[rembrat]

There's no reason to think Punto will start over Aviles.

Then, Mike Aviles, Starting Shortstop.

Listen, I loved Aviles in '08 but he is not that guy anymore.

[TheoShmeo]

I don't recall being less excited about an upcoming Red Sox season in a very long time, if ever. And it's not at all tied to Bobby Valentine, as I'm looking forward to seeing how he handles the job (in all respects) and thought that Tito was losing effectiveness as a game manager and in the clubhouse (even before all the salacious stuff came out).

My lack of enthusiam relates to the following:

- Each of starters 1-3 had uneven seasons last year. Perhaps that provides extra motivation, but the fact is that none of these guys are coming off full seasons of strong performance, and how the Sox have handled 4 and 5 suggests that they are thinking something like "1-3 will be so awesome that we can afford some mediocrity or uncertainty at 4 and 5."

- Assuming starter 4 is Bard, this will obviously be an experiment. It might work but it might be an utter failure. How will that affect the team and will Bard be able to go back to being a great reliever as if nothing happened if it does? The answer to the latter question is probably yes but sometimes it's not as simple as moving guys around a fantasy roster.

- Starter 5 is another experiment. Whoever it is out of the gate will have more experience but considerably less talent than Bard. He will not be someone who has enjoyed recent success in the majors. And if it's Vincente Padilla, it will someone who we can easily picture becoming unhinged in the AL East. And if it's Alfredo Aceves, two of the Sox three reliable relievers in 2011 will be in the 2012 rotation, leaving a hole in the pen.

- SS as of now is going to be Punto, Aviles or Iglesias. Really.

- Two of the starting OFs on day one are likely to be Ross and Sweeney.

- I'm pessimistic that Carl Crawford is going to be materially bettter than last year. Whether it's diminishing skills, coming back from injury, an inability to thrive in Boston or his handling of Valentine's outreach to him, I just have a foreboding sense about this guy, particularly given the Sox apparent adherence to their budget and the impact that his contract will have on it. As with everything else I've mentioned, I hope my concerns are misplaced.

- I'm still processing that the Sox dealt Marco Scutaro, one of the few guys on the team who was good in September, in the name of budgetary flexibility. I would get doing that if they had a stud SS at the ready OR they were goign to actually add a starting pitcher so the move could be viewed as related. True, they might do that during the year, but how long will they wait to see their deficiencies and at what cost?

- This Oritz thing has the potential to be very difficult. Why they can't find middle ground on a two year deal that avoids a dispraportionate one year salary, gives Ortiz the term he's looking for and avoids the spectre of a messy arbitration hearing is beyond me.

- Youks hasn't been able to stay on the field. Is he working out fiendishly (or at least sensibly) this off season in order to mitigate that risk?

Edited by TheoShmeo, 06 February 2012 - 02:27 PM.

[Zupcic Fan]

Well, I couldn't have cared less about the football game, so luckily I don't need Sox excitement to get over that, but I at this point have no excitement about the coming season. It's not that I don't think they will be good. They probably will. And I'm a little excited about not having to endure the at bats of Lowrie and Reddick and Scutero any more. But my main problem is that I will have trouble getting upset by the losses of any team managed by Bobby Valentine. And I'm not sure how I'm going to react to that. Most of the players on this team who I really loved pulling for are gone. There are a lot of guys left that I have come to actively dislike. So obviously I'm not excited. I hope all of this changes as we get into the season. But replacing a guy like Terry Francona with one likeBobby Valentine was monumental for me.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm always excited for the baseball season, so I'm voting "very excited" and "same as usual." I mean, it's baseball. There is no sport in the world that gets me going like baseball.

And my expectations for this team just fuel that excitement. I think this team is every bit as competitive as any team they've brought into spring training since the 2007 title. The offense was the best in baseball last year despite carrying a career worst year from Crawford, an under .700 OPS from Reddick for the majority of the season and a revolving door of mediocrity at third after Youk got hurt again. They're not going to be worse at those positions and they will likely be better (especially in left), with potential improvements from Gonzalez as he continues to heal from his shoulder injury and the platoon in right field. Of course, those are probably going to be offset by a bit of a reversion from Ellsbury and possibly Pedroia and a step back offensively at short, but that brings us back to a similar overall performance from the lineup which means once again, they should be a top 3 in the league.

The bullpen should be stronger overall, even if they're taking a step back from Papelbon to Bailey. That step back is quite small and may have happened even if Papelbon was brought back as Papelbon was no sure thing to repeat 2011 and Bailey has actually been the better closer over the last three years by ERA+. The rotation should be about as good as it was for most of the season (the 100 win pace team that entered September in first place) and will certainly be significantly better than the slop that took the mound in September. Hell, you could bring back the exact same players and they'd almost assuredly be better than what we saw in September.

At worst, this team is going to be similar to the 100 win pace club we enjoyed until the end of August. They may actually be better. Of course, the competition has improved, so I'm not predicting 100 wins. I wouldn't even if the competition hadn't improved. There are too many things that need to go just right for a team to win 100 games. But this team will be highly competitive and will be a threat to win the division next year.

I get why people are pessimistic. I get why people feel let down after this off season. But they're bringing back the vast majority of a team that was the best in baseball through the end of August last year. This is going to be a really exciting season and predicting a 4th place finish is simply preposterous.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 06 February 2012 - 02:55 PM.

[JohntheBaptist]

I don't follow football or basketball. I love hockey and have watched close to 20 Bruins games this year after watching a ton last year and the year before, but don't have one tenth the involvement I do with baseball.

Every season has a new identity, to me '11 is over. There's connective tissue with the offseason yes, and it hasn't been great. But that too ends as soon as it fucking starts already in April.

As you guys just experienced, the tone of things can change on a dime. A few things break our way (for once) and we've "got a chip on our shoulders" and it gets fun. There's so many ways it can turn fun that it isnt worth holding back the excitement, I think.

[Drek717]

Very excited, same as usual.

I don't need a juggernaut club every season to get up for baseball season. I'm very much looking forward to this summer. Buchholz healthy will be a treat. Watching Crawford work his way back from the horrible '11 season. The Ells, Pedey, A-Gon, 'Tiz, Youk 1-5 is always must see TV in my eyes. While I'd like some better SP depth I can't deny Bard's potential as an SP is tempting. I'm very optimistic on Sweeney being a worthwhile surprise when used in a platoon role with Ross and McDonald.

Probably best of all, we're now getting one step closer to another shot at a home grown revolution. Paths to the majors in 2013 are setting up for Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Iglesias, and very possibly Kalish. Behind them are a lot of other very good young position players. Seeing how the year plays out and speculating on where the farm system is at the end of 2012 is going to be one of my favorite activities all summer long.

This isn't a KC Royals/Baltimore Orioles club. This is one of the top 5 best clubs in all of baseball overall. The 25 man roster can be incredibly competitive and the farm looks ready to produce a bumper crop. What's not to get excited about?

[soxfan121]

The Sox were a very good team last year, and will be better next year. I'm extremely excited, irrational pessimists be damned. This team is going to be a lot better than many expect.

Yeah, that word doesn't mean what you think it means OR you don't bother to read the pessimists' posts. The optimists are irrational; there is no rational basis for which to believe that this team improved in the off-season. The pessimists may be pissing you off, they might be overly negative, they might be fixated on the wrong things but there's a rational basis from which to posit "pessimism" as it relates to the Red Sox.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Yeah, that word doesn't mean what you think it means OR you don't bother to read the pessimists' posts. The optimists are irrational; there is no rational basis for which to believe that this team improved in the off-season.

Papelbon and Scutaro are the only players worth a shit that are no longer on the team. Suggesting that the team, which played to the level of a 95 win team last season, is suddenly destined for 4th place, seems to me to be 1) without the faculty of reason, 2) without or deprived of normal mental clarity or sound judgment, 3) not in accordance with reason, etc.

We can agree to disagree, but I'll be happy to get rid of the woe is me, worst offseason evah crowd that's been so pervasive this off-season and actually play some frieking games. will be plenty of time for the I told you so's.

[reggiecleveland]

I am less excited and less optimistic. Simply it it rare in sports that highly successful regime is replaced by new regime that is just as successful. So I think mathematically Ben and Bobby are unlikley to be as good as Theo and Tito. Also there is some additional evidence that there exist a chance of a shit show with B.obby V.

Also both Theo and Tito left for reasons that probably have not been fixed. The money crunch of the terrible two's contracts and the inability to find anybody to fill the gaps in the starting rotation are worrisome. This is the first time since 03 that the Sox have not aggressively pursued solutions to the most glaring problems. It doesn't mean the pitching will be bad, but I am not confident.

They lost Papelbon, Scutaro, who were very good last year, and Jd Drew who had been an excellent player and only replaced Paplebon with any semblance of equal value. Sure the platoon may be better than JD was last year, but the future chances of RF being as good as it was 07-10 are not good.

Also Crawford is hurt and despite the pollyanna chorus, has a significant chance of sucking. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Aghon the Conqueror, were so good it may be hard to expect them to duplicate their performance.

Don't get me wrong, this team has a chance, which is all a fan could ask. But, if this teams wins 85 games it would not be the shock it would have been any other time in around ten years.

[RedOctober3829]

Papelbon and Scutaro are the only players worth a shit that are no longer on the team. Suggesting that the team, which played to the level of a 95 win team last season, is suddenly destined for 4th place, seems to me to be 1) without the faculty of reason, 2) without or deprived of normal mental clarity or sound judgment, 3) not in accordance with reason, etc.

We can agree to disagree, but I'll be happy to get rid of the woe is me, worst offseason evah crowd that's been so pervasive this off-season and actually play some frieking games. will be plenty of time for the I told you so's.

Let's take the rotation. Can you tell me if Beckett will show up like he did in '06, '08, and '10 or like he did in '07, '09, and '11? Will Buchholz bounce back from his injury? Can Bard make the transition to the rotation and have long-term success? Who is the 5th starter? To me, you have legitimate questions on 4 of the 5 spots.

Move to the bullpen. Andrew Bailey should be good, but coming from a pitcher-friendly division will he produce the same numbers in the AL East? He also has had injuries the past 2 years that have limited him to less than 50 IP both years. How will Melancon's NL numbers translate over to the AL? Will the heavy workload last season have an impact on Aceves long-term? Can Jenks provide anything at all? Good Albers or Bad Albers? Can someone from the group of Tazawa, Doubront, Bowden, and Morales provide anything?

Now, for the lineup. How can Ellsbury possibly repeat what he did last year? Is this the year Ortiz regresses? Can Youkilis stay healthy? I don't think I have to go into the question marks Crawford and the SS position are.

We can agree to disagree all you want, but the facts remain that this team is riddled with question marks. They could win 85 games just as easily as it could win 95 if the question marks go negatively. I'm not "woe is me". I'm being real.

[Laser Show]

Papelbon and Scutaro are the only players worth a shit that are no longer on the team. Suggesting that the team, which played to the level of a 95 win team last season, is suddenly destined for 4th place, seems to me to be 1) without the faculty of reason, 2) without or deprived of normal mental clarity or sound judgment, 3) not in accordance with reason, etc.

We can agree to disagree, but I'll be happy to get rid of the woe is me, worst offseason evah crowd that's been so pervasive this off-season and actually play some frieking games. will be plenty of time for the I told you so's.

What drives me to the pessimist side of things is not the quality of the team. I don't think anyone's debating that this is a good team. It's the quality of the competition.

The Angels are significantly better. The Rangers will be very good again. We were neck and neck with the Yankees as it was before the collapse. Tampa Bay will be right there and Toronto will be very competitive.

The Sox will most likely be right there at the end, but the strength of competition makes it tough to have high hopes when they did little to fix their pitching depth this off-season - the reason they failed in September.

Put it this way - if Beckett has a "typical-even-year-Beckett" performance (which I think would be just as likely as seeing last year's version), would you still feel as optimistic?

Edited by Laser Show, 06 February 2012 - 04:43 PM.

[shepard50]

I am always excited about the Red Sox. I am less excited this year.

The bloom is off the rose on the ownership and management front. I really connected with Theo and Tito. I found them both smart and humble, and when I didn't know what we were doing I trusted that they did and until recently, they were right more than wrong. I don't feel that connection with Ben and Bobby...at all, and I have hard time imagining that I ever will, though I hope that changes.

People say that they don't root for the laundry but I think that's bullshit. Sure, we get to know the players as minor leaguers in many cases, and follow them up to the bigs, and that is extra special. But I think we develop our affection for the hometown team (I noticed even Lackey had warm words of support before his key start in Baltimore in September) because we share the anguish and the triumph of the games with them.

Generally I can get excited about almost any player ( I will never like John Lackey....and his John Lackey face, same with Lugo), but I am less certain I can get excited about our front office and manager.

And I still hold ownership to account for the shoddy way September and after was handled.

Edited by shepard50, 06 February 2012 - 04:48 PM.

[Plympton91]

Perhaps you weren't around, but I remember a time when almost every season seemed to end with the team falling on its face and the GM and manager were always complete idiots and the roster rarely improved much from year to year. It was called "The Yawkey Era." But I stil got excited for baseball every year anyway.

Pitchers and catchers in two weeks. It's almost springtime and hope springs eternal. Plus, we've got an extremely talented team. What's not to get excited about? It's baseball. The other sports are great, but nothing compares.

THIS THIS THIS, ... 1000 Times... THIS

Has it really been that long since 1994? I guess it has. A whole generation of Sox fans have grown up without even a sniff of what many of us who were sentinent in the 70s and 80s lived. Taking the long view, the 2012 Red Sox are among the best teams this franchise has ever fielded.

Moreover, just keep repeating to yourself, John Henry and Larry Lucchino are winners in life and proven winners in baseball. They are not idiots. They know what they're doing. If they thought a change needed to made, then no one on this board is really qualified or knowledgable enough to second guess them. Not that we can't have the discussion; hell, I love second guessing. But, keep in mind, if you're going against them, you're probably wrong. That's a nice feeling to have; it wasn't always true.

Third remember last year when everybody thought they were crazy going into the year with only Varitek and Saltalamacchia as catchers? That worked out o.k.; not too different from Aviles and Punto, actually. Remember how much of SOSH though Papelbon had entered the twilight of his career and wanted Dan Bard to be the closer? That worked out o.k.; not too different from worrying about Bailey's health, actually. Remember how JD Drew was an expensive albatross? Well, he was, yet, they somehow made it through the season with Reddick and McDonald. Now they've upgraded both.

Fourth, someone already said this above, but another exciting thing is that there actually are more competitions for jobs this season. Spring Training actually matters a little bit.

--- I'm excited to see if Aaron Cook is a better pitcher at sea level than he is a mile high. Other pitchers have come out of Colorado and improved dramatically. Or maybe it'll be Padilla giving the Sox what Garcia gave the Yankees. Or maybe it'll be Alex Wilson living up to his draft position and forcing his way into the rotation or bullpen. I'm also excited because regardless of whether it is Cook or Padilla or Wilson who wins the spot, they'll be at least a 1 run per game upgrade over John Lackey, probably 1.5 runs per game, and maybe 2 runs per game. Anyone who thinks the Red Sox didn't improve in the offseason, are seriously, seriously, seriously underestimating who bad Lackey was last season.

--- I'm excited to see Daniel Bard pitching like a staff ace.

--- I'm excited to see Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa healthy again; remember how good they looked in 2010?

--- I'm excited to see if Jarrod Saltalamacchia can build upon his very successful 2011 and continue to become more consistent with the bat and in throwing out base stealers. The collapse and his untimely September swoon overshadowed what was a very promising development year. I think he's a good candidate to improve materially again in 2012.

--- I'm excited to see if Jose Iglesias comes to camp looking like he put on 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason, thus turning lazy fly balls into wall banging doubles.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I acknowledge that the team has questions, but if you start with the baseline of last year's team and realize that most of the players who are gone were awful, than it's easier to be optimistic. I think that the back end of the rotation will be better. I expect some players (most likely Ortiz and Ellsbury) to be worse. I'd expect many others to be better. The baseline of talent here is very, very good. I'd expect 92-96 wins. I just don't see how anyone can think this team is significantly worse than last year. They lost Papelbon and Scutaro; that's it.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

We can agree to disagree all you want, but the facts remain that this team is riddled with question marks. They could win 85 games just as easily as it could win 95 if the question marks go negatively. I'm not "woe is me". I'm being real.

But most or all of them have to go negatively for them to end up an 85 win team. Sure, if Beckett shows up like even year Beckett and Buchholz has more back injuries and Bard doesn't translate, and the number five spot can't be filled at league average production by one of the retreads, and Ellsbury regresses, and Pedroia regresses, and Youkilis is hurt and Crawford somehow continues being an awful player and Gonzalez takes an unforseen step back, they're gonna fall well short of 90 wins.

But apply that list of crap to any other team in baseball and they're going to fall well short of expectations as well. You're not being real. You're being a pessimist.

This team isn't going to have a perfectly healthy season where all players outperform 2011. They'd win 105 games if they did. They're also not going to have every question mark come up negatively. They'd win 85 if they did. They're going to end up between the two extremes and compete for the division.

[Rough Carrigan]

Yeah, that word doesn't mean what you think it means OR you don't bother to read the pessimists' posts. The optimists are irrational; there is no rational basis for which to believe that this team improved in the off-season. The pessimists may be pissing you off, they might be overly negative, they might be fixated on the wrong things but there's a rational basis from which to posit "pessimism" as it relates to the Red Sox.

There's a rational basis to posit optimism, too.
They got nothing much from right field last year and should get at least a bit more this year.
They got nothing much from left field last year and unless Crawford repeats a surprisiingly bad year they should get more.
They got less than they expected from third base last year and after surgery for a sports hernia, Youkilis will likely give them more.
They might expect to get sssslightly more from Gonzalez at first as he'll be further away from shoulder surgery and possibly stronger.
They might expect to get sssslightly more out of their catchers with intelligent use of platooning and Shoppach throws better than Tek.
Lester's year was actually slightly down from his last three. A bit of an uptick is not unreasonable to expect.
John Lackey will be replaced by another biped in the rotation. That will be an improvement.
Too cool for school Josh Beckett will be challenged to work this season. He had a good year last year and the challenge should keep him there.
Clay Buchholz, the guy who had the 2nd best ERA in the AL in 2010 will be pitching without a fractured back and will be better.

Are there reasons to think this or that position will be worse? Sure. but to think there are no reasons for optimism is closing one's mind to some facts.

[FL4WL3SS]

I acknowledge that the team has questions, but if you start with the baseline of last year's team and realize that most of the players who are gone were awful, than it's easier to be optimistic. I think that the back end of the rotation will be better. I expect some players (most likely Ortiz and Ellsbury) to be worse. I'd expect many others to be better. The baseline of talent here is very, very good. I'd expect 92-96 wins. I just don't see how anyone can think this team is significantly worse than last year. They lost Papelbon and Scutaro; that's it.

Not sure too many people are arguing that the team is significantly worse than last year, but they're not significantly better than last year either. The problem is that other teams got better and some got significantly better, so there are games that the Red Sox won last year that they just flat out won't win this year. By staying the same, the Red Sox go worse.

[Plympton91]

We can agree to disagree all you want, but the facts remain that this team is riddled with question marks. They could win 85 games just as easily as it could win 95 if the question marks go negatively. I'm not "woe is me". I'm being real.

Will Mark Teixeira continue to decline? How many games will ARod miss this year? When does Jeter completely fall off the table defensively and offensively? Is Curtis Granderson really a 40 HR guy? How many 44 year old closers have been successful? At what point will Rafael Soriano's arm fall off for good? Can Freddy Garcia and his 87 mph heat tempt fate like he did last season? Are Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett wrecked for good? Who's catching, again? Who's DHing?

[Andrew]

Next season has Twins 1987 written all over it.

Jacoby Puckett

[rembrat]

Will Mark Teixeira continue to decline? How many games will ARod miss this year? When does Jeter completely fall off the table defensively and offensively? Is Curtis Granderson really a 40 HR guy? How many 44 year old closers have been successful? At what point will Rafael Soriano's arm fall off for good? Can Freddy Garcia and his 87 mph heat tempt fate like he did last season? Are Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett wrecked for good? Who's catching, again? Who's DHing?

Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett are all fighting for the 5th starter's job. Try again.

[BucketOBalls]

This team isn't going to have a perfectly healthy season where all players outperform 2011. They'd win 105 games if they did. They're also not going to have every question mark come up negatively. They'd win 85 if they did. They're going to end up between the two extremes and compete for the division.

Well, splitting the difference seems to get you 90 wins and just missing a WC spot.

Just going by down the roster.

Beckett : Probably worse than last year, esp since they fired Curt Young.
Lester and Buch : could hope for a bit more health from Buchholz, but probalby about the same
The back two rotation spots will probably have improved. Could be small to none if the Bard experiment fails.

Bullpen definitely got worse. Hope the NL guys like the ALE!


Lineup:
Ellsbury: Big regression candidate
Ortiz: wont get better at his age, quite likely to regress if kept
SS - definitely worse
The other positions can hopefully hold serve with maybe slight improvmenets.


And they don't have the payroll room to do anything significant at the trading deadline.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

It's the Red Sox, and it's baseball season. I've never been anything less than very excited and I never will be.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Bard start, and Bailey close, and Buchholz pitch again, and Crawford rebound, and Salty develop, and Adrian take it to the next level, and Pedroia do everything that he does, etc, etc, etc. And yes, I'm really interested to see how Bobby V manages this team.

I think they're going to be very good, although they'll piss me off and frustrate me at times. But shit, it's the Red Sox and it's a fresh new season. I can't wait for the ride.

[bosockboy]

Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett are all fighting for the 5th starter's job. Try again.

Nice that you ignored the rest of it and picked out the layup.

[JMDurron]

Not excited at all, less excited than usual.

The slow, painful death of the 2011 season, followed by a month of horror to start the offseason, followed by another 3 months with absolutely nothing to get excited about have left me feeling pretty cold about the 2012 season. Intellectually, I understand that several of the intangible/background problems may have been addressed with various non-roster moves, and that the baseline talent level of this squad is extremely high. Ultimately, excitement is about feeling, not brains, and my faith in what I understood to drive performance of the team took a severe hit at the end of 2011. My trust that the non-business side of the team knew what it was doing left with Theo and Tito. I understand that their replacements are not morons, and might actually be upgrades, but the feeling is what matters right now, and there are no positive feelings at this point.

The first time the 2012 team goes on a tear, I'll get over it. I need a piece of the new experience to get my enthusiasm going, and that's where my brain tells me that I probably won't have to wait very long for that to happen, because this is still a very good roster. That just doesn't make me any more excited right now.

[lexrageorge]

Well, splitting the difference seems to get you 90 wins and just missing a WC spot.

Just going by down the roster.

Beckett : Probably worse than last year, esp since they fired Curt Young.
Lester and Buch : could hope for a bit more health from Buchholz, but probalby about the same
The back two rotation spots will probably have improved. Could be small to none if the Bard experiment fails.

Hope you don't mind me picking apart your post, as I believe you raise some good points. I agree the starting pitching is an open question. Getting some improvement out of the 4-5 spots shouldn't be difficult, as we're starting from a pretty low bar in 2011. But the Top 3 need to stay healthy and effective. Confidence factor: low-to-medium.

Bullpen definitely got worse. Hope the NL guys like the ALE!

Well, bullpens are hard to predict, and they did pick up some low-cost, quality arms in Melancon and Bailey. I know not everyone believes this assessment, but there is a reasonable chance this could be a wash. Confidence: medium.

Lineup:
Ellsbury: Big regression candidate
Ortiz: wont get better at his age, quite likely to regress if kept
SS - definitely worse
The other positions can hopefully hold serve with maybe slight improvmenets.

What do you mean "Big regression candidate"? Do you mean likely to have some regression from 2011? Sounds reasonable. Do you mean a big regression? If so, I'd like to know why.

SS wasn't exactly a booming spot for them last year, so "worse" may not matter that much. On the plus side, A-Gon is supposedly healthy and fully recovered from his shoulder issues, which was a big issue for him late last season. RF could improve if Crawford gets back to his career averages. C should improve defensively over last year. Maybe Lavarnway can help as well.

And they don't have the payroll room to do anything significant at the trading deadline.

They may not need that much payroll to pick up a contributor.

[Plympton91]

Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett are all fighting for the 5th starter's job. Try again.

Don't really see that as much different from Padilla, Aceves, and Cook competing for the 5th starters job, especially with Matsuzaka looking like an early-June addition.

Cook confident he can win job: SP Aaron Cook, who's coming off an injury-plagued year in which he went 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA for the Rockies, was willing to accept a minor-league deal with the Red Sox as opposed to a major-league deal with another club in part because he's confident in his ability to bounce back, according to WEEI.com. "I feel like, if I can go to spring training and be who I am, it’s not going to matter that I’m on a minor-league deal, that I can go out there, win a spot and help us win some baseball games,” said Cook. And what makes him so confident? “This is the first offseason that I’ve had in about two or three years where I was completely healthy and I was able to do all the work I needed to do,” said Cook. “I’ve put on another 10 pounds of muscle. I feel strong. I feel like my arm is in the best shape it’s been in in a long time."
(Updated 02/03/2012)

Edited by Plympton91, 06 February 2012 - 05:26 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well, splitting the difference seems to get you 90 wins and just missing a WC spot.

Just going by down the roster.

Beckett : Probably worse than last year, esp since they fired Curt Young.
Lester and Buch : could hope for a bit more health from Buchholz, but probalby about the same
The back two rotation spots will probably have improved. Could be small to none if the Bard experiment fails.

Wait, you think the most likely outcome is that Buchholz only pitches half the year? Really? Based on what? And the back end of the rotation is going to be better by default. The performance from the replacement level players was far worse than can be expected. Just throwing the same guys back out there is likely to be an improvement, never mind better pitchers like Padilla. The rotation will be better than last year. That's almost a certainty.

Bullpen definitely got worse. Hope the NL guys like the ALE!

I don't see this at all. Last year they essentially had Papelbon, Bard and Aceves. After that, it was awful and more awful. Especially down the stretch. The team wasn't likely getting another year out of Papelbon like what he gave them in 2011. His 2009 and 2010 were certainly not comparable. Either we're looking at a contract year performance, or some random variation that wasn't likely to repeat anyway. Bailey is probably a good bet to approximate what they would have gotten from Papelbon anyway, and even a pretty good bet to be better than Papelbon would have been here anyway. He was clearly better in 2009 and 2010.

Then you have Melancon replacing Bard, which is a clear step back. But it's not a drop back to replacement level or anything close to that. It's a slight step back and one that is more than mitigated by the fact that the pen is going to be deeper in 2012 than it was in 2011. They have Aceves back, will have Tazawa and at some point Jenks will return. They also have Doubront, Atchinson, Morales, Albers and Bowden to piece together the slop section of the pen. There's a lot of depth there and somewhere near the middle of the season, you'll probably see Bard moved back to the pen when Matsuzaka returns. I can't see how anyone would argue that the pen is worse, overall, than the 2011 pen. They're not replacing Papelbon and Bard with Aceves and Albers. They have quality pieces in place for the 8th and 9th innings and a better looking group behind them.

Lineup:
Ellsbury: Big regression candidate
Ortiz: wont get better at his age, quite likely to regress if kept
SS - definitely worse
The other positions can hopefully hold serve with maybe slight improvmenets.

I don't think they're automatically going to be worse at SS. Aviles has upside and can approximate Scutaro's defense. Iglesias will give them a defensive whiz for late inning replacements and Punto is another solid defensive option as the utility guy. Aviles' bat is a question, but not an automatic downgrade. Ortiz will probably take a step back as he's a year older, but he should still be productive and still be one of the best (if not THE best) DH's in the game.

And they don't have the payroll room to do anything significant at the trading deadline.

This is true on paper. But if this team has a shot at competing for a title (and I think they do), I don't see Henry refusing to increase payroll because of the luxury tax. Trying to get under the limit to start the season makes sense, but this ownership group has always been willing to spend when it makes sense. The trade deadline might make sense if the Sox have been competitive and look like they're a piece or two away from a solid championship run.

[rembrat]

Nice that you ignored the rest of it and picked out the layup.

Well, the rest of it was so laughably bad that I didn't think it needed touching but here it goes.

-I was beating the Mark Teixeira decline drum last off-season only to watch him put up a better fWAR in 2011 than he did in 2010. Sure, he isn’t a 5-7 fWAR guy anymore but he plays in a park that is tailor made for his 315ft pop ups to right field. He’ll be fine.

-Derek Jeter put up a respectable OPS amongst his AL SS peers and he was legally dead for 2 months. Plus, he finished with a better slash than he did in the year prior.

-Rodriguez will miss some games but he isn't even who we should be afraid of. It's Cano.

-Granderson. Who knows? Jose Bautista made a change in his swing. Is he really a 40HR guy?

-The Yankees will not have a closer aged 44 in 2012.

-Soriano’s arm could fall off and they still have David Robertson.

-Russell Martin and Austin Romine/Francisco Cervelli.

-Who cares? They’ll get a LHH to DH who will mash 25HR in that ballpark.

You really can't play the question mark game with the Yankees like you can with the Red Sox.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You really can't play the question mark game with the Yankees like you can with the Red Sox.

Just because you assumed best case scenario or at least positive outcomes for each of the questions, that doesn't mean the questions shouldn't be or can't be asked. I can answer just as positively for the Sox and declare the questions "laughably bad."

The Yankees, just like every other team, have questions about their roster.

[terrisus]

Very excited, as always.

Baseball is really the only sport I ever have followed. The months between when the season ends and Spring Training starts up are just full of keeping an eye on the offseason news and counting the days until Spring Training.

While last season didn't end as any of us had hoped, the offseason wasn't the best, and the coming season is still full of questions, hope springs eternal, and the most important thing is that Baseball will be back soon.

[Sprowl]

Been down so long, seem like up to me.

Offseasons suck, and this offseason sucks worst. Can't wait til it's over. Let the spring training rumors fly! Who will come in "in the best shape of his career"? Who will Bobby the Fifth first criticize publicly?

Upside prospects: Bard, Buchholz, Doubront, Saltalamacchia, Iglesias (yes, I think he'd be a great story, and he's got a ton of charisma), and eventually Kalish and Matsuzaka.

Regression worries: Aceves, Aviles, Beckett, Melancon, Morales, Punto, Shoppach. Many of the new acquisitions could be downright awful.

Good and will stay that way: Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Lester, Ortiz, Pedroia.

Lowrie's replacements on the Chronic DL: Bailey, Crawford, and of course, Lackey.

[Rasputin]

I am always very, very excited for baseball. It's the best thing in the world.

Yeah, this.

As far as the Sox they might not be as good as we're used to, but they're good enough to compete and that's all you can really ask for.

Yeah, they have slipped from "Clearly one of the top three teams in the AL" to "Clearly one of the top five teams in the AL" and frankly that's almost entirely because the Angels imported a game changing caliber hitter and the Rangers maybe replaced the loss of their best starter.

[RedOctober3829]

Ras, if they have slipped to #5 in the AL, how is that OK? You'll be watching October baseball not be played in Fenway again.

[rembrat]

Just because you assumed best case scenario or at least positive outcomes for each of the questions, that doesn't mean the questions shouldn't be or can't be asked. I can answer just as positively for the Sox and declare the questions "laughably bad."

The Yankees, just like every other team, have questions about their roster.

The Red Sox have like a gajillion more questions about their roster than the Yankees do. You really can't argue otherwise. The Yankees won 97 games last year and all they did this off-season was improve their rotation. I guess they have a "hole" at DH but it's not like that spot makes or breaks their offense like, say, it does for the Red Sox.

[derF]

It probably can't be any worse than: http://www.overthemo...e-worst-of-2011

With Bobby V at the helm, it's guaranteed to be interesting...

Probably middle of the pack in the AL East...