115 replies to this topic

[Oil Can Dan]

If some other QB, like say Donovan McNabb, makes that pass then everyone is making fun of him for missing the open receiver. Yes, Welker could have caught it, but the fact is that it was just not a good throw. Brady does better on that 95 out of 100 times.

(null)

[Curtis_Lesspanic]

Reche Welker.

[Mystic Merlin]

Reche Welker.

Oh my God.

[radsoxfan]

If some other QB, like say Donovan McNabb, makes that pass then everyone is making fun of him for missing the open receiver. Yes, Welker could have caught it, but the fact is that it was just not a good throw. Brady does better on that 95 out of 100 times.

Welker was open, but there was a safety coming over from the middle of the field so Brady led Welker away from the defense.

Welker may have had a little more room than Brady expected, but I think not leading him over the inside shoulder was the safer play and by design.

Edited by radsoxfan, 06 February 2012 - 07:42 AM.

[Ed Hillel]

Welker was open, but there was a safety coming over from the middle of the field so Brady led Welker away from the defense.

Welker may have had a little more room than Brady expected, but I think not leading him over the inside shoulder was the safer play and by design.

Yup. Welker tangled his feet a bit on the route and it set him off balance a bit for the drop. It sucks, and he should have caught it, but it happens.

That Branch pass is caught if it isn't slightly tipped. It happens.

[MarcSullivaFan]

Welker is a tough little fucker who has been a huge part of this team's success over the past 5 years. He came back from a devastating knee injury little worse for the wear. He takes the blame when he screws up. Blaming him for this loss is pretty shabby.

[soxfan121]

If you want to be paid more than $3M/year, you should have make that catch. $8M/year? You cannot drop a ball that makes it to your hands. Not every pass is perfect and great WR make plays.

Adios, Wes. It's been fun. Best of luck. But I don't want to see you in a Patriots #83 unless you're willing to sign for the same amount you made last year.

[BigSoxFan]

Welker is a tough little fucker who has been a huge part of this team's success over the past 5 years. He came back from a devastating knee injury little worse for the wear. He takes the blame when he screws up. Blaming him for this loss is pretty shabby.

God. He deserves criticism for that play no matter how cool a dude he is. He dropped a pass that every single Giants WR catches. If you want to be considered an elite player, make a fucking play.

[Snowplow]

I blame Madonna.

[Marbleheader]

Welker deserves all the criticism he is getting. No amount of mea culpas is going to wrestle that Lombardi trophy away from New York. Welker had a nice run here, but I'm content to let him chase the dollars elsewhere at this stage os his career. This team needs to get younger and better if they want another shot befor Brady is toast.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

If you want to be paid more than $3M/year, you should have make that catch. $8M/year? You cannot drop a ball that makes it to your hands. Not every pass is perfect and great WR make plays.

Adios, Wes. It's been fun. Best of luck. But I don't want to see you in a Patriots #83 unless you're willing to sign for the same amount you made last year.

Pats most likely wouldn't have been in a position to lose the SB without Welker on this team. Yes, he should have caught the ball that would have all but clinched the SB victory. And yes, I hope they can re-sign him.

[notfar]

I am pretty sure I want the guy that was in the top of the league in basically every offensive category for a receiver to be back on my team next year even if he did drop a pass and hurt my feelings. I'd even give him a raise.

Edited by notfar, 06 February 2012 - 09:31 AM.

[soxfan121]

I get Welker has supporters - y'all might be right.

But is a Welker contract extension about what he HAS done or what he WILL do? I agree, he HAS been awesome; his production, as compared to the salary, has made him a great value player.

But if he's getting "#1 WR money", he's not a good value; he's 31, has a significant knee injury in his medical history, and figures to produce less, going forward because of his age and his knee.

SJH said last week that "the Patriots will not pay a WR $8M/season" and I agree. The Pats paid Randy freaking Moss $9M/season, but that's Randy freaking Moss and it ended badly, with less production than anticipated. Wes Welker is not an $8M/season player. He's not a $5M/season player, IMO. One loose patch of turf and the resulting knee injury makes him a short guy with no ability to cut and no speed. I have no desire to give Wes Welker the kind of contract he probably wants (or thinks he deserves) because I don't pay for past performance. If Wes wants more than 3 years or more than $15M total, I say adios. YMMV.

[Jungleland]

Franchise him next year and then let him walk. I don't want to see him run out of town over a single drop. He's essential to the team's offense as presently constructed, and I see few scenarios where they can keep up the offensive production next year without him in New England. With that said, knowing the way the Patriots construct their roster and use their cap space, I'd much, much prefer to keep both tight ends locked up for a long time, as well as see if there is good value to be had in the draft or free agency. The one year franchise tag hit is probably worth it. If signing him long term keeps the team from retaining Hernandez and being active with younger FAs, I don't think giving him a contract is worth it. The chance that the value in an elite contract is there after next year is slim.

[abty]

When you have a 34 year old HOF once in a lifetime QB, who desparately wants to win one more ring, you can't quantify what a player is worth the same way other teams would. Welker is a huge part of a win now team's offense and losing him would be a serious blow to your two young TE's. While I realize people are worried that Welker would be useless with an injury, your stud unbreakable TE got injured and was useless in the S.B. It can happen to anybody. Brady is one bad sack from having a Theisman like ending to his career. But you take your chances because he's an elite player. Brady needs other elite players and, without Welker, both Brady and the TE's take a performance hit. When they take a performance hit, the team takes a major hit in the standings.

Be very careful what you wish for if you want him cut loose. While I understand that it's best to let him go if his demands are outrageous, it's important to realize that 'value' is not an easy term to define. Value for the Patriots <> value for other teams. Even if he signs an awful contract with you guys, if you win next year, even if he has an awful remainder of his career, and it IS worth it. If anybody doesn't believe me, go ask Tom Brady. When that happens, I will listen - assuming he says no. He won't say no because he doesn't give a fuck about 2015. Find a way to keep him. Otherwise you are doing what the Ravens, Texans and Jets need you to do for them to take the next step.

Edited by abty, 06 February 2012 - 10:52 AM.

[Jungleland]

I think few would disagree with that, which is why I'd be hugely disappointed to see them go into next year without him. There exists, however, a very real possibility (likelihood?) that they can keep him for next year while simultaneously keeping roster flexibility to transition smoothly into life post-Welker. If they think that he won't be effective in two years, I can't see them going beyond the franchise tag. He's a must for next year, though.

[soxfan121]

When you have a 34 year old HOF once in a lifetime QB, who desparately wants to win one more ring, you can't quantify what a player is worth the same way other teams would.

Bullshit. By this logic, Kevin Faulk and Deion Branch should be Patriots until Tom Brady decides he doesn't want them. Which ignores several key things, most notably that Faulk can't out run my grandmother and Branch has lost a step.

If you can upgrade a roster spot OR you can reallocate the $ from one spot to another and get 85% of the value, you do it. Otherwise, you end up the Indianapolis Colts. The franchise QB does NOT run the asylum, does NOT get to approve the roster, does NOT get to define who is "valuable" and who is not. That's the coach's job. Period.

Welker is a huge part of a win now team's offense and losing him would be a serious blow to your two young TE's.

A slot receiver who can find holes in zone coverage is important to the Patriots offense; Wes Welker is just the guy doing that job right now. Lest anyone forget, Wes Welker was a UDFA who was underutilized on a division rival's roster and was signed to a CHEAP deal that he provided great value on, but he's not a unique physical talent. He's tough, he's smart and he's quick - and there's other guys out there with those skills. Gronkowski is a physical marvel - that combination of football smarts, size, speed, skill and toughness is hard to find - it's more valuable. Welker's package of traits isn't as rare.

While I realize people are worried that Welker would be useless with an injury, ... But you take your chances because he's an elite player.

What trite bullshit. Elite player? C'mon. Not even Wes Welker thinks Wes Welker is an elite player. He's a very good player who fits perfectly into the offensive scheme. He's not fucking Jerry Rice, OK? He's not Randy Moss, he's not Larry Fitzgerald, he's not Calvin Johnson, he's not Rob Gronkowski. He's a slot WR with good hands, great spatial awareness, great football smarts, average speed, below average size, is 31 and has a blown ACL on his medical chart.

Brady needs other elite players and, without Welker, both Brady and the TE's take a performance hit. When they take a performance hit, the team takes a major hit in the standings.

What complete bullshit. I mean, it's not like Brady's had a year in his career where he had one legitimate NFL WR on the entire roster and still gotten the team to double-digit wins and the AFC Championship.

Without SOMEONE in the slot to fill that role, the Patriots would be in trouble. Of course, they could always alter the offense to fix that but I'll pretend that everyone's brain breaks and no changes can be made to the playbook or game plans. Well...hello Julian Edelman! You've been Wes Welker's understudy for 3 years, you've proven you've got football smarts (because you can play WR and DB after playing QB in college) and you're faster, bigger, younger and healthier. Are you as good? Nope - but 85%? I'm sure Edelman can get into that range.

Be very careful what you wish for if you want him cut loose. While I understand that it's best to let him go if his demands are outrageous, it's important to realize that 'value' is not an easy term to define. Value for the Patriots <> value for other teams.

Google says it's easy to define, shithead. "Relative worth, merit or importance."

Ergo, value is different for the Patriots than other teams but "value" is primarily what someone ELSE would pay Wes Welker. If some other team wants to pay Welker $8M/season, the Patriots will most likely assess his "value" as being far lower than that and let him walk. If Welker assesses his own value at slightly more than what he made this season, then he'll probably re-sign here. But in between...that's for the MARKET to define his value.

Even if he signs an awful contract with you guys, if you win next year, even if he has an awful remainder of his career, and it IS worth it. If anybody doesn't believe me, go ask Tom Brady. When that happens, I will listen - assuming he says no. He won't say no because he doesn't give a fuck about 2015. Find a way to keep him. Otherwise you are doing what the Ravens, Texans and Jets need you to do for them to take the next step.

I give a fuck about 2015. Bob Kraft gives a fuck about 2015. Bill Belichick gives a fuck about 2015. Season-ticket holders give a fuck about 2015. I remember when the Patriots were a joke, and afterthought, a complete embarrassment...and so does Bob Kraft. There's zero chance that if Belichick comes to Kraft and says, "we can resign Welker but in 2015, we'll have to cut him and Brady and Wilfork because we'll be overextended" Bob Kraft will tell him to figure out another way because that's unacceptable.

If the Patriots can replace Welker with Edelman and Edelman can be a reliable pass catcher out of the slot AND the Patriots upgrade the outside WR positions from Branch/Ocho to something with more speed and get a 3rd TE to supplement Gronk & Hernandez...for LESS than it would cost for just Welker, well...that's value.

The money that some are arguing is NECESSARY for Welker can be more wisely allocated to the defense. The entire pass catching corps can be upgraded for less than it would cost to re-up just Welker. Instead of $8M on Welker, split that into $4M for Lloyd, use 2nd rounder on another WR, sign a couple UDFA, and use the remaining to upgrade the secondary so Edelman can play WR. Better WR, cheaper than just re-upping Welker and money to use on the real needs (i.e. defense).

EDIT: formatting

Edited by soxfan121, 06 February 2012 - 11:49 AM.

[Fishercat]

If you can honestly end this season believing that Julian Edelman can do (and will do) 85% of the things on offense that Wes Welker can do, then sure, your post makes all the sense in the world. If you can make the choice to lose 15% of Wes Welker and gain a true #1 WR in the process, you do it.

However, I've seen absolutely nothing to indicate Julian Edelman is anything more than a change-of-pace WR in this league. Nothing at all. This year, after several years of being Wes Welker's "understudy" for three years, the coaching staff saw it fit to bring in Tiquan Underwood and Chad Ochocinco to get snaps over him. In the past two seasons, he's had eleven catches. His hands aren't particularly great, he hasn't made the field recently on most passing plays, he's prone to fumbling (I think he has the same number of fumbles in the past three years as Wes Welker, Welker has just caught the ball 320 times or so).

Wes Welker brings a unique set of skills to the table. I think that a rational debate can occur as to how much he is worth in an NFL sense and if his offensive contribution is worth 8m. But I think abty's points are fair. The Patriots offense has gotten to the point where the TE's take away traffic from the middle of the field (ideally) and to where a "slot receiver" (Welker is more than that IMO) has additional value. At least more than he would in a system that has no inside threats or one that relies more on 15-20 yard passes and the run game.

Also, for someone who isn't an elite WR who can't possibly think he is, he sure has a lot of media members and fans fooled. He's been voted to two all-pro first teams (and two more second teams) since he's been in New England. He's been to four straight pro bowls, he's led the NFL in receptions three of the past five years, he was second in yards this year. Hell, he's even Top 5-10 in yards per touch, despite being a "slot" guy. He's exceptionally valuable and he's a fantastic player. As Brady gets older and his skills deteriorate, the safety blankets and comfort WRs become more valuable, and Welker is that guy.

[TheoShmeo]

At 3:10 AM this morning I overheard two hotel security guards debating the relative fault of Welker and Brady. Hearing that, I knew it would end up as a thread on SoSH.

My reaction to this thread is the same thing I thought earlier today. It's really both of them. Brady's throw -- regardless of his status in the game or how much he wanted it -- wasn't perfect. Wes got both hands on the ball and should have pulled it in. Heaven knows that the Giants receivers made several more difficult catches during the course of that game.

But both of them didn't do their job fully on the one play that probably would have been THE difference maker in the game. Nothing that happened before -- the safety, the ill advised throw to Gronk, the line play, etc. -- would have mattered if Tom's throw didn't force Welker to adjust or Welker made a catch he'd probably make 98 out of 100 times.

Having been forced to choose, I chose Welker, because he's paid to make tough catches, especially when they're actually makeable. But neither one of these guys will get that play out of his head for a long time, and deservedly so.

[soxfan121]

However, I've seen absolutely nothing to indicate Julian Edelman is anything more than a change-of-pace WR in this league. Nothing at all. This year, after several years of being Wes Welker's "understudy" for three years, the coaching staff saw it fit to bring in Tiquan Underwood and Chad Ochocinco to get snaps over him. In the past two seasons, he's had eleven catches. His hands aren't particularly great, he hasn't made the field recently on most passing plays, he's prone to fumbling (I think he has the same number of fumbles in the past three years as Wes Welker, Welker has just caught the ball 320 times or so).

So, you're convinced Julian Edelman, converted QB and moonlighting DB, can't play an X or Y? Me too. Welker can't either. Welker is useless outside the slot; so is Edelman. I'd argue it's a function of their size/speed/athleticism, which is lacking in comparison to "outside WR".

Ergo, your point about Underwood/Ochocinco is useless - Edelman/Welker were not going to play "outside" so the "outside" (X or Y) WR that were brought in do not factor in this conversation. FWIW, the outside spots have to be upgraded, in some way, this offseason. Branch/Ocho/Underwood/Slater were a complete disaster this year.

Edelman's action at WR has come in the pre-season. He's made himself useful in the kicking game and on defense because one Wes Welker was enough, especially the last two season where the TE's have also been roaming in between the numbers and making the addition of another guy with a similar skill set overkill.

As for hands - there's a reason there's a thread about Wes Welker this morning. Welker's been average on "drops" (not looking it up right now, just guessing) and he cannot claim to have "great" hands. Not today.

The bottom line is that Edelman has shown skills that MAY allow him to step in an give you 75-85% of what Welker did. That he hasn't is a function of Welker being better, the offensive scheme, other team needs and opportunity. Saying Edelman "can't" because he "hasn't" is not exactly true.

Wes Welker brings a unique set of skills to the table. I think that a rational debate can occur as to how much he is worth in an NFL sense and if his offensive contribution is worth 8m. But I think abty's points are fair. The Patriots offense has gotten to the point where the TE's take away traffic from the middle of the field (ideally) and to where a "slot receiver" (Welker is more than that IMO) has additional value. At least more than he would in a system that has no inside threats or one that relies more on 15-20 yard passes and the run game.

I'm sorry, but this based on a faulty premise - that TE's "take traffic away from the middle of the field". Simply not true. Lots of the effectiveness of the TE driven passing attack comes from the fact that they can "pick" defenders who are looking to cover Welker in the slot, they can "stretch" the linebackers and safeties between the numbers and they can add levels to the passing game. But they don't "take defenders away from the middle of the field." Rex Ryan proved this in last year's playoff game and I doubt you could find anyone, anywhere to agree with the idea that the TE's give the slot WR more room. They change the matchups, they alter the defensive approach but they do NOTHING to move the game outside the numbers.

Also, for someone who isn't an elite WR who can't possibly think he is, he sure has a lot of media members and fans fooled. He's been voted to two all-pro first teams (and two more second teams) since he's been in New England. He's been to four straight pro bowls, he's led the NFL in receptions three of the past five years, he was second in yards this year. Hell, he's even Top 5-10 in yards per touch, despite being a "slot" guy. He's exceptionally valuable and he's a fantastic player. As Brady gets older and his skills deteriorate, the safety blankets and comfort WRs become more valuable, and Welker is that guy.

Wait - he has big counting stats so he must be a great player? Where the fuck am I? Who changed the color scheme at the Remy Report?!

Look, Welker is a good football player who has been a GREAT value because of his production as compared to his contract. I'm not gonna bother posting a long list of guys who've been to 4 pro bowls and led the NFL in receptions but suffice to say, it's not exactly the harbinger of greatness you think it is.

What, exactly, does Wes Welker do better than any other slot WR in the NFL? And no, "plays with Tom Brady" or "fits in this offense" is not acceptable - other guys can do that. Edelman could do that. Some 6th round overachiever from State might be able to do that.

You pay for exceptional skills. Like the argument about Mario Williams in another thread or the arguments about DeSean Jackson's extension...you pay for exceptional ability. Calvin Johnson? Hell yes. Wes Welker, at age 31? No fucking way.

[Dogman2]

I bet Dogman2 is weeping in a hotel room. I still love him unconditionally.

Not in a hotel room, no. I didn't weep but my heart does ache for Welker. He should have caught that ball and he knows it.

It was a great run.

[Bleedred]

Welker was WIDE OPEN. There was no need for that throw to be so off the mark. I understand throwing to the outside shoulder, but that throw was simply unnecessary, and under the circumstances, a poor one. Not egregiously poor, but poor. They each deserve 50% of the blame for the drop, but none of the blame for the loss. 2 fucking stud football players who didn't connect on a big play. It sucks, but it happens.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you want to be paid more than $3M/year, you should have make that catch. $8M/year? You cannot drop a ball that makes it to your hands. Not every pass is perfect and great WR make plays.

Adios, Wes. It's been fun. Best of luck. But I don't want to see you in a Patriots #83 unless you're willing to sign for the same amount you made last year.

I'd drop Brady too. Dude makes how much, and his first play is an intentional grounding safety? Get him gone.

Worst. thread. ever.

[pappymojo]

God. He deserves criticism for that play no matter how cool a dude he is. He dropped a pass that every single Giants WR catches. If you want to be considered an elite player, make a fucking play.

The Giants receivers didn't drop any passes? I'm surprised the game was as close as it was.

[soxfan121]

Worst. thread. ever.

Not even the worst thread in the forum. Check out "Noooooooooooo!" if you really want to experience the "worst.thread.ever."

[Toe Nash]

Welker had a nice run here

He has three of the top 20 single seasons in receptions of all time, including #s 2 and 4. "A nice run" my left nut. He's a first-ballot lock for Pats HoF.

[genoasalami]

When you are spinning your body around and your feet are not on the ground all kinds of physics come into play ..what seems like an easy catch really isn't. Sure, he should have caught it, but it was not as simple a catch as it seemed. Brady made it a lot more difficult than it had to be.

[Reverend]

EDIT: formatting

That line was funny.

[Captaincoop]

Well anyone who really knows what happened in '86 knows Buckner is not all to blame and in this case its even more so not all on Welker. The very next play if Deion Branch sits in a fucking hole then he picks up the first or if Brady had the balls to lead him or throw it over that LB than they pick up the first roughly at the same spot.

AND even more importantly Welker has plenty of time to redeem himself and I believe will.

No offense, but how the fuck is Welker going to redeem himself? He can win the next five MVP awards and not redeem himself.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

I love Welker, but that's 100% on him. Brady had his misfires, but that was a perfect pass. He read the safety closing and threw to the outside shoulder.

If Welker is reading the defense properly, as Belichick teaches, he knows where that ball is coming. He turned to track a ball to the inside shoulder and almost made a good catch. If he turns to track the right way based on the safety, it's an easy catch.

Can't blame the loss on any player, but if there's one player's decision on one play I'd like back, it's Welker's on that one.

[Reggie's Racquet]

I blame Madonna.

I blame Lugo.

[chester]

No offense, but how the fuck is Welker going to redeem himself? He can win the next five MVP awards and not redeem himself.

He takes less money puts up another monster season and helps the Pats win the Super Bowl. I know that is a hard road but would that be redeeming? After seeing what he could do after his injury I trust Welker to be able to come back and come back big.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I love Welker, but that's 100% on him. Brady had his misfires, but that was a perfect pass. He read the safety closing and threw to the outside shoulder.

If Welker is reading the defense properly, as Belichick teaches, he knows where that ball is coming. He turned to track a ball to the inside shoulder and almost made a good catch. If he turns to track the right way based on the safety, it's an easy catch.

Can't blame the loss on any player, but if there's one player's decision on one play I'd like back, it's Welker's on that one.

I think it's on Welker too, but the shoulder thing is really hard to get on him about. When on the right side of the field you look over your left shoulder, left side of the field you look over the right shoulder. It would have been really hard for him to look over his left shoulder and even see Brady, let alone get a good read on the ball. I just watched the replay for the first time, and it's hard to really blame Brady. Brady made a good throw away from the safety, Welker just got a little tied up. It's a ball he should have caught, he just didn't. By no means was it an easy catch, but he should have caught it and he obviously knows it.

I'm able to chug along after this loss much easier then the other SB loss. I would have wanted Welker's head on a platter, but now I just kind of feel for him instead. The guy can't catch a freaking break (I was going to make a joke here, I'll refrain). He ripped up his knee in Houston right before the playoffs, the Jets go out of their way to completely take him out of the game last year, and now he makes this drop. Guy seems snake bitten.

Edited by Kenny F'ing Powers, 07 February 2012 - 08:14 AM.

[RedOctober3829]

Bedard writes a tremendous blog post and one that I totally agree with. Here is part of his argument why the throw was more on Brady than Welker.

Welker might have said that’s a catch he’s made a thousand times. And maybe he has in practice or in previous seasons.
But during 2011, Welker did not have to make a leaping back-shoulder catch with the ball way above his head.
Not even close.
I know, because I watched all 195 of Welker’s targets, from the season opener at Miami, until the fateful incompletion in Super Bowl XLVI.
I’ll be writing more about this in tomorrow’s Globe, but here are a few notes on why Brady was more at fault than Welker.

• Difficulty: Brady put a little air under it to give Welker a chance to adjust to the ball. But it’s an incredibly difficult catch to make, going from a full sprint to turning around the other way while trying to make a catch. Even if Welker caught the ball, it’s not even definite that he would have kept possession once he hit the turf hard – which he was going to do because the throw put him so off balance.
• Vertical does not suit Welker: On those 195 routes Welker was targeted on, do you know how many were of the vertical variety on the route tree – a fade, post, corner and a slant-and-go? Twenty eight total. Or 14.3 percent. Only 17 were a version of that fade route (8.7 percent). Those vertical routes are not Welker’s game, which is why the Patriots seldom throw those to him. Welker’s bread-and-butter – 85.7 percent worth – is on the lower end of the route tree: the flat, slant, comeback, curl, out, dig and various quick passes. Vertical receivers have long arms and big hands. Those help when you have to make those circus catches. Welker has neither. The Patriots, better than any team, put their players in the best position to succeed. They know what they have or don’t have. They know Welker is better catching the ball to his body and absorbing contact or running to the boundary.
• Welker is not an acrobatic catcher: Most of the time. He made terrific diving catch to the 1-yard line against the Jets, but he laid out for that ball. Welker was thrown 10 passes before the Super Bowl when he had to leave his feet to make the catch and he caught eight of them. On seven of the passes (six receptions), Welker jumped straight up from a standstill to attempt the catch. Of the other three that were much more difficult, Welker had one against the Eagles that could have been considered a drop (he would have landed on his feet if he did catch it). Against the Steelers, Welker made a tough leaping catch towards the sideline for a minimal, but important 2-yard gain to pick up a first down. Against the Raiders, Welker made perhaps his best catch of the season – the one that probably makes Welker believe he should have caught the ball in the Super Bowl. On third-and-6 late the third quarter, Welker ran a corner route towards the sideline from the right slot. Brady threw a beautiful pass over the trailing cornerback and Welker’s inside shoulder. Welker had to leave his feet and take a brutal shot to the back from the safety. But Welker held on. That was a sensational catch. But it didn’t have to be made running full speed and twisting back over the other shoulder, like Welker was asked to do in the Super Bowl.
• Backshoulder is rare: Brady only threw four back-shoulder throws downfield to Welker all season. Not one was thrown high. They all hit Welker in the stomach, or high in the chest. And receivers don’t expect backshoulder throwns when they’re in space. Back-shoulder is used when the defender is playing tight coverage underneath. The receiver knows the ball is coming, the defender does not. The Packers, with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings, missed on a very similar play early in their NFC divisional loss to the Giants. The quarterback has to make the right decision. There were a handful of plays that were similar to the Giants play during the season. Almost every time, Brady was fine with exposing Welker to contact and throwing towards a charging safety. We’ll detail those tomorrow.

http://www.boston.co...blame_welk.html

[jmcc5400]

I'm not really interested in assigning blame, and Bedard's points are interesting, but . . .the ball hit him in both hands. Not his fingertips. His hands. If Welker had caught the ball would it have been memorable as a catch? In my opinion, no. Maybe watching the DVD a few years later, you might have noted that it was a "nice catch by Welker," but I don't think it would have been ingrained in anyone's consciousness the way Manningham's will be. It was not a routine play - and Bedard's post particularly illuminates that point - but it's one that Welker should have made. Collinsworth knew it. Welker knew it. And that clip of the reaction from the Pats d-line is pretty indicative of the fact that they knew it too.

To reiterate, I don't care to scapegoat. They had many opportunities to win. I love Welker, know he's dying about this and hope he's back. But pinning this on Brady is dubious.

[soxfan121]

I know, because I watched all 195 of Welker’s targets, from the season opener at Miami, until the fateful incompletion in Super Bowl XLVI.

That's nice. We're all very proud of you for doing your fucking job, Greg.

I also watched all 195 of Welker's targets, some of them twice. So did a lot of people, ding dong.

[Super Nomario]

Welker might have said that’s a catch he’s made a thousand times. And maybe he has in practice or in previous seasons.
But during 2011, Welker did not have to make a leaping back-shoulder catch with the ball way above his head.
Not even close.
I know, because I watched all 195 of Welker’s targets, from the season opener at Miami, until the fateful incompletion in Super Bowl XLVI.
I’ll be writing more about this in tomorrow’s Globe, but here are a few notes on why Brady was more at fault than Welker.

• Difficulty: Brady put a little air under it to give Welker a chance to adjust to the ball. But it’s an incredibly difficult catch to make, going from a full sprint to turning around the other way while trying to make a catch. Even if Welker caught the ball, it’s not even definite that he would have kept possession once he hit the turf hard – which he was going to do because the throw put him so off balance.
• Vertical does not suit Welker: On those 195 routes Welker was targeted on, do you know how many were of the vertical variety on the route tree – a fade, post, corner and a slant-and-go? Twenty eight total. Or 14.3 percent. Only 17 were a version of that fade route (8.7 percent). Those vertical routes are not Welker’s game, which is why the Patriots seldom throw those to him. Welker’s bread-and-butter – 85.7 percent worth – is on the lower end of the route tree: the flat, slant, comeback, curl, out, dig and various quick passes. Vertical receivers have long arms and big hands. Those help when you have to make those circus catches. Welker has neither. The Patriots, better than any team, put their players in the best position to succeed. They know what they have or don’t have. They know Welker is better catching the ball to his body and absorbing contact or running to the boundary.
• Welker is not an acrobatic catcher: Most of the time. He made terrific diving catch to the 1-yard line against the Jets, but he laid out for that ball. Welker was thrown 10 passes before the Super Bowl when he had to leave his feet to make the catch and he caught eight of them. On seven of the passes (six receptions), Welker jumped straight up from a standstill to attempt the catch. Of the other three that were much more difficult, Welker had one against the Eagles that could have been considered a drop (he would have landed on his feet if he did catch it). Against the Steelers, Welker made a tough leaping catch towards the sideline for a minimal, but important 2-yard gain to pick up a first down. Against the Raiders, Welker made perhaps his best catch of the season – the one that probably makes Welker believe he should have caught the ball in the Super Bowl. On third-and-6 late the third quarter, Welker ran a corner route towards the sideline from the right slot. Brady threw a beautiful pass over the trailing cornerback and Welker’s inside shoulder. Welker had to leave his feet and take a brutal shot to the back from the safety. But Welker held on. That was a sensational catch. But it didn’t have to be made running full speed and twisting back over the other shoulder, like Welker was asked to do in the Super Bowl.
• Backshoulder is rare: Brady only threw four back-shoulder throws downfield to Welker all season. Not one was thrown high. They all hit Welker in the stomach, or high in the chest. And receivers don’t expect backshoulder throwns when they’re in space. Back-shoulder is used when the defender is playing tight coverage underneath. The receiver knows the ball is coming, the defender does not. The Packers, with Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings, missed on a very similar play early in their NFC divisional loss to the Giants. The quarterback has to make the right decision. There were a handful of plays that were similar to the Giants play during the season. Almost every time, Brady was fine with exposing Welker to contact and throwing towards a charging safety. We’ll detail those tomorrow.

This line of thinking is illogical to me. Yes, it was an unusual play for the Pats to run. I imagine that's a good part of the reason it was open. That the Pats haven't done this much doesn't mean either the throw was bad or the catch was extraordinarily difficult. If Bedard broke down all of Gronkowski's catches on post routes against single coverage and determined that he caught all of them when they were underthrown, would that mean the INT was a good throw? Danny Woodhead didn't have a TD catch all season; does that mean throwing to him just before the half was stupid?

[ivanvamp]

At 3:10 AM this morning I overheard two hotel security guards debating the relative fault of Welker and Brady. Hearing that, I knew it would end up as a thread on SoSH.

My reaction to this thread is the same thing I thought earlier today. It's really both of them. Brady's throw -- regardless of his status in the game or how much he wanted it -- wasn't perfect. Wes got both hands on the ball and should have pulled it in. Heaven knows that the Giants receivers made several more difficult catches during the course of that game.

But both of them didn't do their job fully on the one play that probably would have been THE difference maker in the game. Nothing that happened before -- the safety, the ill advised throw to Gronk, the line play, etc. -- would have mattered if Tom's throw didn't force Welker to adjust or Welker made a catch he'd probably make 98 out of 100 times.

Having been forced to choose, I chose Welker, because he's paid to make tough catches, especially when they're actually makeable. But neither one of these guys will get that play out of his head for a long time, and deservedly so.

I think this is perfectly right. It's on both of them to a degree. Brady didn't throw a perfect ball - he made the catch harder than it needed to be. But Welker did get both hands on it, and he almost always comes down with that. Football is a team game - it requires guys to work together. If the throw is just a bit off, it's on the receiver to make a tough catch. If the receiver has a hard time getting separation (say his cut isn't the cleanest), then it's on the QB to throw a tighter pass into a smaller window.

Both deserve some "blame" for that play, but both also deserve HUGE kudos for how they played overall in that game and, of course, in their Patriot careers.

I obviously want both back on the team next year without a doubt.

[ivanvamp]

I blame Lugo.

And, of course, in virtually every blame-worth situation, putting it on Lugo is entirely appropriate.

[MainerInExile]

Welker slowed down and turned. If he looks over the other shoulder and keeps running, doesn't it hit him in stride for a touchdown?

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Welker slowed down and turned. If he looks over the other shoulder and keeps running, doesn't it hit him in stride for a touchdown?

In theory, yes. It's really, really, really, really, really hard to turn your head around and look over the other shoulder though. Brady put some zip on that ball too. By the time Welker realized it was over the wrong shoulder, I think it would have been impossible to turn his head and reacquire the ball.

[MainerInExile]

In theory, yes. It's really, really, really, really, really hard to turn your head around and look over the other shoulder though. Brady put some zip on that ball too. By the time Welker realized it was over the wrong shoulder, I think it would have been impossible to turn his head and reacquire the ball.

Okay, makes sense. So when they call the play, do they know ahead of time which shoulder they're supposed to throw over? Or is it determined by the defense, or something else? Did it go over that shoulder because there was one defender on that side and two on the other? Or did Brady simply miss?

[RedOctober3829]

Okay, makes sense. So when they call the play, do they know ahead of time which shoulder they're supposed to throw over? Or is it determined by the defense, or something else? Did it go over that shoulder because there was one defender on that side and two on the other? Or did Brady simply miss?

It's determined by the defense. Brady felt he had to go away from the safety to the inside and threw it to the back shoulder of Welker.

[Al Zarilla]

In theory, yes. It's really, really, really, really, really hard to turn your head around and look over the other shoulder though. Brady put some zip on that ball too. By the time Welker realized it was over the wrong shoulder, I think it would have been impossible to turn his head and reacquire the ball.

No. Go back and look at it as I've done a dozen times. Brady didn't exactly float it but he tossed it to keep the two Giants defenders between himself and Welker completely out of the play.

[Mystic Merlin]

I just can't get over this play. Why couldn't he catch the ball? Fuck.

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I dunno man. I don't think he put in on a thread, but he sure didn't lob it in there either. Either way, it's really hard to tell which shoulder the ball is coming to until it's about 10 yards out.

[tims4wins]

I know that it should make absolutely no difference in my life whether or not Welker came down with that pass.

I also know that it has been eating at me for over 40 hours, and will continue to do so for a long time.

Fuck.

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

Okay, makes sense.  So when they call the play, do they know ahead of time which shoulder they're supposed to throw over?  Or is it determined by the defense, or something else?  Did it go over that shoulder because there was one defender on that side and two on the other?  Or did Brady simply miss?

It's a read both Brady and Welker have to make in this system. The play is probably marked up both ways - his defender in solo coverage trying to keep Welker in front of him and a basic cover-2 safety help deep option. I think Welker's hesitation was a bad read and he might have been about to turn toward the post.

[WheresDewey]

If "both" had been an option, I would have picked it. But since I had to pick one or the other, I'd put about 55% of the blame on Welker, 40% on Brady and 5% on George W. Bush just to piss off Rush.

I think Welker has to come back next year, but if he wants multiple years at > $5million, you franchise him for one year and let him train his replacement.

[Oil Can Dan]

Had Welker caught it, would the Pats have ran it three times then settled for the FG, or would they have put it in the air at least once more? We'll never know obviously but I do wonder. Three unsuccessful runs means they're kicking off to the timeout-less Giants with around 1:55 left down only 5. Unsuccessful pass and it's the same with around 2:40 left. First down and the game is most likely over unless the 1st down came on the first play after the would-be catch.

We'll never know and all, but it would have been interesting to see what BB/BOB would have done there.