56 replies to this topic

[Dehere]

Royal Reader, on 03 February 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

The game is really taking off in the college-educated population: more university students in the UK play football than organized soccer

That is really remarkable. I'm certainly not saying you're wrong but can you site a source for this?

[Cousin Walter]

crystalline, on 04 February 2012 - 02:20 AM, said:

the fact that a bad record gets you an easier schedule next year

Why does this belief still exist, even amongst media people whose job it is to know this sort of thing. The prior season's win-loss record determines just two out of 16 opponents the following year.

For example, no matter what happens in 2012, the Pats will play the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Browns in 2013 as well as the usual division games. Two games remain to be decided based on the outcome of the 2012 season.

[tims4wins]

Cousin Walter, on 04 February 2012 - 12:29 PM, said:

Why does this belief still exist, even amongst media people whose job it is to know this sort of thing. The prior season's win-loss record determines just two out of 16 opponents the following year.

For example, no matter what happens in 2012, the Pats will play the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Browns in 2013 as well as the usual division games. Two games remain to be decided based on the outcome of the 2012 season.

Plus you never know who is going to be good. The Pats got to play the Colts this year by virtue of their 1st place finish last year, while Miami had to play the Texans by virtue of their 3rd place finish last year. That's life in the NFL.

Edited by tims4wins, 04 February 2012 - 12:34 PM.

[Royal Reader]

Dehere, on 04 February 2012 - 10:13 AM, said:

That is really remarkable. I'm certainly not saying you're wrong but can you site a source for this?

I can't, although I did see one cited, on TheGangGreen of all places. I'll try to find it. Thinking about it, it's almost certainly only talking at an inter-university level: intramural soccer is pretty big. Whereas for interuniversity sport, soccer, rugby and cricket usually only field two teams per university, whereas football teams have squads of 30+. In many ways, it fills the role ultimate frisbee does on American campuses - you get a lot of guys who are interested in athletics, work out, but aren't good enough at soccer or rugby to make the University representative teams.

Edited by Royal Reader, 04 February 2012 - 12:47 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

Oklahoma isn't a bad suggestion, but 34 (for all the reasons cited) is just an awful number of teams

[crystalline]

tims4wins, on 04 February 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

Plus you never know who is going to be good. The Pats got to play the Colts this year by virtue of their 1st place finish last year, while Miami had to play the Texans by virtue of their 3rd place finish last year. That's life in the NFL.

My point was that an NFL expansion team has a better shot at a good record in the first few years than an NBA or MLB expansion team. 2 out of 16 games is more than 10%, a not insignificant percentage. The strength of your division has a bigger effect, true.
As for the fluctuations you cite - as an expansion team you WANT random fluctuations each year as you want to have a few chances to get lucky in the first 5-10 years of your existance. I think it's been shown in the NFL that (i) schedule strength and (ii) injuries are as good a predictor of next year's record as last year's record - another luck factor is that you could remain extraordinarily healthy one year.

But I agree with the comment above: this is PR -- Goodell wants a team in LA but simultaneosly wants to play down the idea of an existing team moving, so he raises the vague possibility of expansion.

[rbeaud]

Royal Reader, on 04 February 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

I can't, although I did see one cited, on TheGangGreen of all places. I'll try to find it. Thinking about it, it's almost certainly only talking at an inter-university level: intramural soccer is pretty big. Whereas for interuniversity sport, soccer, rugby and cricket usually only field two teams per university, whereas football teams have squads of 30+. In many ways, it fills the role ultimate frisbee does on American campuses - you get a lot of guys who are interested in athletics, work out, but aren't good enough at soccer or rugby to make the University representative teams.

I was frankly shocked to see a piece on either Sky or BBC this week about an Oklahoma player that came back to the UK on break and was helping out the local gridiron football team. And there were probably 30 odd college kids at the Bristol pub watching the AFC Championship game and discussing their fantasy teams. Fantasy teams in the UK! Too bad most were Ravens fans.

More interest than I expected for sure.