279 replies to this topic

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sound the alarms. Pitchers get hurt!

Sound the alarms. Pitchers who throw a lot of sliders from a low arm slot get hurt!


Seriously, if you are willing to accept the heightened risk of losing Bard for a full year, then great. Have him keep doing what he did last night. All season long.

That's a fool's bet, though, so I say his innings should be limited and his changeup thrown far more often than six times out of a hundred.

[PrometheusWakefield]

So you are using Michael Pineda (on the DL), Ervin Santana (arm exploded in 2007 and 2009), Colby Lewis (arm exploded in a major way in 2004 and 2007), Brandon marrow (once moved to the bullpen due to shoulder issues) as examples of health?

Alexi Ogando's arm starting falling off last year and he has relatively few miles on his arm due to his involvement in the sex slavery industry. And Bumgarner is 22 and has relatively low miles on his arm.

So that leaves Edwin Jackson as your best case example...

Ervin Santana has thrown 1303 innings in 7 major league seasons, which adds up to 186 innings per year - or 195 innings per year if you exclude his rookie season. In that time he's put up 18.5 WAR. If Daniel Bard stayed in the bullpen and repeated his 1.8 WAR from last year without ever getting injured (relievers of course never get hurt) it would take him over 10 seasons to accumulate Santana's WAR. Colby Lewis has thrown 200 innings in each of the past two seasons, during which time he accumulated 6.9 WAR - almost 4 seasons of Bard as RP.

It is true that throwing the slider this often increases Bard's chances of getting hurt, but the significance is much less than I think you're making it out to be.

[pokey_reese]

Yes but pitchers that pitch 25% or greater sliders get hurt more often.

I suppose I was not looking at both parts of the argument previously. I totally agree with you that Bard's current pitch repertoire puts him at increased risk of being injured.

I was thinking that the debate was around whether or not he could be effective only throwing 5-10% change-ups and basically functioning as a FB/SL pitcher.

But hey, as long as it works for him in the short term, we can just swap him out for Matsuzaka when he gets back!

[Eric Van]

Thankfully we have Nick Cafardo:

I fucking hate this man.

This morning, as I was getting ready for bed, I was thinking about what I might say to Cafardo in a e-mail ... and then started thinking that maybe a letter to the editorial department might be more warranted, with Cafardo on the cc: as a courtesy.

If a reporter in any other part of the paper routinely published analytical pieces that were this far off base, he'd lose his job instantly. I mean, there was nothing on the front page about how Santorum's withdrawal would have no effect at all on Romney, was there? So why we were reading this about Bard?

I don't hate the guy; it's like hating Buckner because he thought he could hit Jesse Orosco. There's just no justification for him keeping this job when he's been clearly uninterested in or unwilling to read a single word of what's been published in the last 25 years about the better understanding of the field he's been covering.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Thankfully we have Nick Cafardo:

He could end all speculation by dominating as a starter.

Right now, as good as he feels about himself, the results simply don’t warrant that commitment.

Because for a major league starter, it’s all about the results.

I fucking hate this man.

Yeah, and just to be clear about exactly what's wrong with this attitude, Bard did have results last night. He struck out six, he walked only one, and he didn't allow any home runs. There will be a day in which complaining about Bard's "results" last night will seem as absurd as complaining about Kevin Youkilis' "results" because he didn't score or drive in a run while going 2-for-4 with a double. The problem is, once you've created a mentality in which runs are attributed to a pitcher it's hard to break out of that way of thinking to focus on the things that are actually demonstrably under a pitcher's control.

But obviously Nick Cafardo is not cutting edge.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 11 April 2012 - 11:44 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Ervin Santana has thrown 1303 innings in 7 major league seasons, which adds up to 186 innings per year - or 195 innings per year if you exclude his rookie season. In that time he's put up 18.5 WAR. If Daniel Bard stayed in the bullpen and repeated his 1.8 WAR from last year without ever getting injured (relievers of course never get hurt) it would take him over 10 seasons to accumulate Santana's WAR. Colby Lewis has thrown 200 innings in each of the past two seasons, during which time he accumulated 6.9 WAR - almost 4 seasons of Bard as RP.

It is true that throwing the slider this often increases Bard's chances of getting hurt, but the significance is much less than I think you're making it out to be.

Another thing with Ervin Santana is that he has a cutter. Bard does not. He has a fastball and a pseudo maybe sinker / 2 seamer with his slider

[crystalline]

If Daniel Bard stayed in the bullpen and repeated his 1.8 WAR from last year without ever getting injured (relievers of course never get hurt) it would take him over 10 seasons to accumulate Santana's WAR.

Does WAR take into account situational leverage or does it just assign you a win total based on IP and runs scored?
If the latter, it could be that using Bard as a relief ace might be a better choice than using him as a starter. Since either way you're doing something unconventional.

Your larger point still holds- average starters have more value than most relievers.

Also TRic- note that the coefficient is small on the # of sliders regressed on injury rate. Probably not big enough to make capital typing worth it, in my opinion.

[Plympton91]

That's just a fact of life in the major leagues and that's what's kept the Bobby Valentines of the baseball world from going ga-ga over this Bard as a starter stuff.

Don't give him that much credit, the main reason Valentine is lukewarm on Bard in the rotation is because he wants a binky for the 9th inning.

[pjheff]

-overdependence on the slider (35 sliders per game can mean a lot of stress on the elbow)

And, as Sprowl says above, if he needs 35 sliders to get through 5 innings every time, it's going to affect his elbow sooner or later.

The over dependence on the slider is what worries me the most, because of the threat of injury.

I agree with the consensus generally. A lot of sliders and a decline in velocity are concerning.

But no way should he be relying on a slider for 30%+ of his pitches.

Is it possible that Bard is getting the SSS treatment after one start? Bard was quoted here as saying, "I thought I was throwing the slider for a strike pretty much at will all night." Couldn't pitch selection in this one game be a reflection of what Bard had working in this one game rather than a season-long strategy?

My bigger concern is how Bard will be effective during starts in which he leaves the bullpen with no command of that slider. If he is pacing himself with the fastball to the point where it's not a putaway pitch, and he doesn't trust the change, then he's going to have a hard time getting hitters out, especially a second or third time through the lineup.

[crystalline]

Don't give him that much credit, the main reason Valentine is lukewarm on Bard in the rotation is because he wants a binky for the 9th inning.

Back in the days of the bullpen-by-committee, we didn't even know what sides the front office and manager were on, because they didn't tell the public.
I miss those days.

[Sprowl]

Is it possible that Bard is getting the SSS treatment after one start? Bard was quoted here as saying, "I thought I was throwing the slider for a strike pretty much at will all night." Couldn't pitch selection in this one game be a reflection of what Bard had working in this one game rather than a season-long strategy?

My bigger concern is how Bard will be effective during starts in which he leaves the bullpen with no command of that slider. If he is pacing himself with the fastball to the point where it's not a putaway pitch, and he doesn't trust the change, then he's going to have a hard time getting hitters out, especially a second or third time through the lineup.

It will be interesting to see how Bard deals with the first time he can't command the slider. I imagine that he'd take two different approaches, according to batter handedness:

to LHB: change speeds often, keeping the changeup low or outside, and save the slider for a backdoor called strike.
to RHB: pound the zone with fastballs: 4-seamers at the letters and 2-seamers at the knees. Save the slider for 2-strike counts.

[Sprowl]

Bard's second start: 6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 7 bb, 7 k, on 111 pitches, 40 sliders (!), 22 changeups, and 49 fastballs, of which at least 10 were sinkers. His velocity was noticeably down from his prior start (average 93.4, peak 96.2), but sustained for all seven innings he pitched.

Command was another story. Bard was fried by the 7th inning, when he eventually walked in the only run of the game. Of his seven walks, three came in the 7th, and he wasn't even close to the zone against Peña and Longoria.



Why Bobby the Fifth left in one of the team's most valuable assets, in his second start of the season, well past his peak performance, obviously losing the zone, is a question for Blaming Bobby.

[JakeRae]

So, bad news was he's still throwing too many sliders and his command wasn't there.

Good news is, it's looking like the velocity drop in the first start being explained by overthrowing early is plausible and he seemed to trust the change up more today. The K's are also still there.

[biollante]

Bard threw too many pitches today. Bobby V. has to realize what everyone else in the stands does - Bard got tired and couldn't throw strikes. He needs to be on a shorter pitch count. Seems too obvious.

Edited by biollante, 16 April 2012 - 05:53 PM.

[barbed wire Bob]

Fangraphs assesment of Bard.

"He is generating a good rate of swings and misses on all of his pitches, but particularly on his nasty slider. He needs to work on keeping the ball in the strike zone — nobody wants to see seven-walk starts become a habit — but part of the issue may simply be that he needs to build up stamina as a starter. The jury is still out, but at this point in the young season, moving Bard to the rotation looks like the right move."

Edited by barbed wire Bob, 17 April 2012 - 10:44 AM.

[rembrat]

Can a dope break out the stuff in here about Bard's starts? Thanks.

Last night he probably pitched his best game of the season. 7IP 6H 2ER 1HR 1BB 6SO 96 pitches - 63 strikes.

And I think it's the first time he mixed in his change up so much. BrooksBaseball had him at

47 FB (fourseam)
24 CH
23 SL
2 FT (twoseam)

Really promising and hopefully he can continue to start. He looks like a #3 at worst.

[deconstruction]

Can a dope break out the stuff in here about Bard's starts? Thanks.

Last night he probably pitched his best game of the season. 7IP 6H 2ER 1HR 1BB 6SO 96 pitches - 63 strikes.

And I think it's the first time he mixed in his change up so much. BrooksBaseball had him at

47 FB (fourseam)
24 CH
23 SL
2 FT (twoseam)

But he really didn't throw that many, as pitchfx misclassified most of his sinkers as changeups.



In reality, he threw only 7 changes (and look at the movement!) and 15-20 sinkers. Only 23 sliders was good to see. Chicago was pretty eager at the plate and swung at 10 pitches outside of the zone. But Bard was certainly more in control than in his previous start.



Definitely lost velo as the game progressed, but sitting 92-93 and hitting 94 in the 6th and 7th is no cause for concern.

[rembrat]

Hmm. I feared as much when someone in the GT noted that Gameday had him throwing 93MPH changeups. And is there no chance that they weren't just really fast change ups? Kinda defeats the purpose of a change up, I know, but I remember seeing Josh throw 91-92 MPH changes a few years ago when he threw stupid hard.

[Pumpsie]

Can a dope break out the stuff in here about Bard's starts? Thanks.

Last night he probably pitched his best game of the season. 7IP 6H 2ER 1HR 1BB 6SO 96 pitches - 63 strikes.

And I think it's the first time he mixed in his change up so much. BrooksBaseball had him at

47 FB (fourseam)
24 CH
23 SL
2 FT (twoseam)

Really promising and hopefully he can continue to start. He looks like a #3 at worst.

Most of the posters on this board have been calling for more changeups in the repertoire, so it's good to see that happening. That's Bard's key to success. If all he throws are fastballs and his hard slider, it doesn't mess up the hitters' timing too badly...but the changeup does. If he can keep doing that, he will keep having success.

Also, stamina is the other area of growth so it's good to see Valentine pushing him so far instead of babying him. Maybe this is one of the things Bobby has gotten right about the pitching. I think that some have turned pitch counts into a sacred cow. Valentine has been pushing the starters a bit so far, partly because the bullpen has been sucky, but also partly because it's good for the starters early in the season to get totally stretched out and over the hump sooner rather than later. Perhaps the slow starts two years running for this team may have something to do with the starting pitching not being as stretched out as they should be by the end of Spring Training.

[deconstruction]

Hmm. I feared as much when someone in the GT noted that Gameday had him throwing 93MPH changeups. And is there no chance that they weren't just really fast change ups? Kinda defeats the purpose of a change up, I know, but I remember seeing Josh throw 91-92 MPH changes a few years ago when he threw stupid hard.

Oh, those changeups are still fast (high 80s)! But I think it's pretty clear from their respective spin, speed, and movement profiles that most are sinkers.

[OttoC]

One thing I find a little unsettling with Bard's performances as starter is he is giving up too many hits when he's ahead in the count, 0-2. That happened twice last night. He's had a batter in the hole, 0-2, about 1/6-th of the time (14/86 PA); yet, he is giving up hits and extra bases at a greater rate than his overall rate for the season: .286 vs. .240 AVG and .429 vs. .333 SLG. On the positive side, he's struck out 8 in those 14 PA (the other two outs being F7 and 5-3). I know it is a small sample but he needs to put batters away once he gets to an 0-2 advantage.

[Plympton91]

But he really didn't throw that many, as pitchfx misclassified most of his sinkers as changeups.

In reality, he threw only 7 changes (and look at the movement!) and 15-20 sinkers. Only 23 sliders was good to see. Chicago was pretty eager at the plate and swung at 10 pitches outside of the zone. But Bard was certainly more in control than in his previous start.

Definitely lost velo as the game progressed, but sitting 92-93 and hitting 94 in the 6th and 7th is no cause for concern.

Regardless of how many he threw, the movement and separation on those seven changeups were a really great sign. If he can repeat those pitches and double the amount he throws, he'll be an ace level pitcher.

I read the velocity as pretty constant after the first two innings. I'm hoping that as he builds arm strength and it warms up that velocity graph shifts up by 2 mph.

[deconstruction]

Regardless of how many he threw, the movement and separation on those seven changeups were a really great sign. If he can repeat those pitches and double the amount he throws, he'll be an ace level pitcher.

I agree, but most of the ones he threw last night, while having good movement and OK separation, weren't located well. Also, he threw them to only LHH: Dunn (4), Pierzynski (2), and De Aza (1).

TRACKING BARD'S CHANGEUP, ROUND 2

1st inning
Dunn:

• 1-0: ball. After a low-and-inside FB. Good fade, but high and outside. Easy for even Dunn to lay off. Not a good one.
• 3-1: ball. After another low-and-inside FB. Almost in the dirt. Another easy one for Dunn to lay off, and he walks.

Pierzynksi:

• 0-0: Starts him with a beautiful low-and-outside CH. It was technically outside, but close enough and with good enough fade that Pierzynski, a first-ball swinger, bit.
• 0-2: After an inside FB that Pierzynski fouled, Bard comes back with a CH on the outside corner that Pierzynski bangs into the RF corner for a double. Too high in the zone, as Remy noted.

3rd inning (Dunn):

• 1-1: After Dunn chased a high-and-outside FB, Bard comes back with a low-and-outside CH. Lots of fade, but, again, seemed easy for Dunn to lay off. Next pitch is another high-and-outside FB, but Bard eventually comes back to K him looking on and outside slider (generous call).

5th inning (Dunn)

• 0-0: Starts him with a really nice one. Low in the zone, good fade, but called a ball. Good CH, ball call. Next pitch is a high-and-outside FB, and then Dunn hits a high FB to deep left.

7th inning (De Aza):

• 0-1: After a called strike slider on the inside corner, CH is way outside. Not a good one. De Aza eventually hammers a FB to the warning track in CF, which Byrd gets under.

Overall: 1 swinging strike, 1 that should've been a called strike, 4 balls, and 1 double. Right now, because of its movement, it's a pitch that he's more comfortable throwing to LHH. He tends to throw it early in the count, and only once did he throw it with two strikes (as he likely thought he'd fool Pierzynski again with it). Throwing 4 to Dunn, perhaps he wanted to keep Dunn honest on the FB.

In his start against Toronto, he actually seemed to locate it better than he did yesterday, so perhaps he didn't have a good feel for it. In the future, I'd like to see him command it better, but does he have to throw more of them in order to do that?

[Sprowl]

I liked the way that Bard rationed his use of the slider, sometimes not showing it until there were already two strikes on a batter. It has such wicked and unexpected movement that it's a great out pitch. What I liked even more is how Bard sacrificed a few mph on his fastball, throwing an easy 93 all night long. That helped his command, I think, and he did pretty well to keep the ball out of the middle-middle.




The changeup is a work in progress (which deconstruction reconstructed very nicely). By my count, Bard also threw 13 sinkers, 10 of them to RHB. They averaged 92 mph, and produced lots of balls in play for outs.

Bard's repertoire to RHB: fastball, slider, sinker;
Bard's repertoire to LHB: fastball, changeup, and the odd slider and sinker.

Can a dope break out the stuff in here about Bard's starts? Thanks.

This thread has already become the thread for tracking Bard's starts. It's interesting to compare ongoing results with posters' predictions, so I think they are best kept together.

[pokey_reese]

I was at this game, and from pretty much dead center (right next to the big plant area they have for some reason) Bard looked more like a pitcher than I have seen from him before. His motion was very consistent and easy, and he seemed to really be in control of the strike zone. Unlike a his previous starts, there was never a time when it looked like he was fighting himself, or having trouble throwing strikes when he wanted to.

I was also really impressed by his composure a few times after the defense let him down, he didn't get flustered or even waste too many more pitches. For the same reason I am not too worried about the 0-2 hits. It seems like it is a deliberate attempt to keep his pitch count low and keep him from ending up going to 2-2 wasting some pitches and then losing hitters. I agree that the results are odd considering what hitters should average in an 0-2 count, but I don't mind him trying to induce some bad contact there by being around the zone. For a guy with a nearly 50% GB rate, that should even out.

Same thing with only throwing change-ups to the lefties. For a RHP he is mostly going to use the change to give lefties a different look, since they can see the fastball coming out of his hand so well. He hasn't really needed the third pitch against righties to this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if he started throwing it more to them as he gets comfortable with it though. With right handed hitters, I am sure there is an element of "don't get beat on your third-best pitch" to it still.

[trekfan55]

This, coming on the heels of his latest start worried me:

Bard said he was 'bewildered' by lack of Ks and swings and misses. Said A's did a good job not chasing on putaway counts.

Speier

I am an ingnoramus when it comes to reading all the data provided on brooksbaseball and pitchfx, so can anyone help by looking at that start a little more analytically?

I mean, he was facing what is basically the worst lineup in the AL, with several batters hitting under ,200 and he got very few swings and misses and only 1K. It's not like they hit the crap out of the ball, but it was the A's.

[rembrat]

I wouldn't worry, these things happen. The A's might not be a super awesome offensive club but they make the 3rd best contact% (82.3%), have the 5th lowest O-Swing% (26.9%) and are tied for 3rd lowest SwgStr% (7.5%) in baseball.

[Rough Carrigan]

He didn't seem to get a called strike on a breaking pitch until the 6th inning. The A's, like seemingly everyone who faces him, were sitting dead red all the way. That they still couldn't do much is because they're the 2012 A's. But, he's got to throw something else for strikes besides the fastball.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 03 May 2012 - 01:55 PM.

[Sprowl]

Bard didn't have good velocity (average 93, max 95 on the fastball) or location (look at all the pitches in the middle or definitely outside, with relatively few strikes on the edges of the zone). If he can't bring his fastball with a little more gusto or hit a few more corners, it won't generate swinging strikes. His location on the changeup was very good -- mostly outside to LHB -- but there isn't much velocity separation between 93 and 87 mph. Bard worked in a few more sinkers: ~10 by my count; PitchFx misidentified the fastball groups because of a persistent horizontal movement error that shifted all pitches to the catcher's right (Fenway needs a recalibration).

[Rudy Pemberton]

93-95 is now considered "not good velocity"?

[Quintanariffic]

93-95 is now considered "not good velocity"?

Not for Bard, and not even compared to his days as a reliever. He was really sitting 92-93 last night, touching 95 a couple times, vs. sitting 94-95 and touching higher numbers in previous starts.

[86spike]

I'm hoping to see him be able to maintain his early inning success into a solid 6 innings, hopefully longer on occasion. He doesn't need to go out and throw up 1 or 2 run outings every time, but I want to see him staying strong after the 4th inning. If he can't do that conisistently, I think he should move back to the pen when Daisuke is ready. That's not to say he can't be a long term starter. But with the needs in the pen this year, I think this is the move.

[rembrat]

I'm hoping to see him be able to maintain his early inning success into a solid 6 innings, hopefully longer on occasion. He doesn't need to go out and throw up 1 or 2 run outings every time, but I want to see him staying strong after the 4th inning. If he can't do that conisistently, I think he should move back to the pen when Daisuke is ready. That's not to say he can't be a long term starter. But with the needs in the pen this year, I think this is the move.

That's kind of harsh. You can count on both your hands how many starters are capable of this. We generally call those starters aces. Doubront should be the guy to move back to the pen as it would give Valentine something he is desperately trying to get out of Morales, a LHP that can pitch to both sides in the 7th and 8th.

[deconstruction]

TRACKING BARD'S CHANGEUP, ROUND 3

Bard threw 10 changeups last night, more than in any of his previous starts. Like Sprowl mentioned, he didn't have the best command or velocity on his FB, and he generally had trouble commanding the change, too. Again, he threw it to only LHH, but distributed it to all five lefties in Oakland's lineup. He also tended to throw it early in the count or when he was behind--only once did he throw it with two strikes.



You can see that most were up and outside, so he was keeping them away from LHH, but only 2 of the 10 induced swings--weak contact on both. Otherwise, one was called for a strike (the one on the outside corner), and the rest (7) were taken for balls, with some, as you can see, nowhere close to the plate.



Movement wise, it appeared to me that some had good fade and sink, while some just kind of floated up there. In the yellow cluster, you can see that the ones down-and-to-the-left have "good" movement and the ones up-and-to-the-right lacked it.

Pitch-by-pitch

1st inning
Reddick
1-1: After a 94mph FB, an 87mph CH on the lower-outside quadrant that Reddick taps to Bard to start a DB. Not a lot of H-movement, but sunk enough so Josh topped it. Good pitch.

2nd inning
Ka'aihue
2-1: 87mph, just outside (called a ball). LIttle too high in the zone, not much sink; a floater. The kind of pitch that a LHH can hit over the monster if they want to take a chance on a ball outside. Ka'aihue walks on the next pitch.

3rd inning
Sogard
1-1: 87mph, similar in location and movement to the one thrown to Reddick. Good movement, and Sogard hits a popup off the end of the bat.
Pennington
1-0: After an outside 92mph, an 86mph CH way outside (called a ball). Bard visibly not happy with the location, but movement wasn't great either. Similar to one thrown to Ka'aihue. Pennington eventually grounds out to 1st.

4th inning
Smith
0-0: starts with a 86mph CH outside (called a ball). Not great movement, but at least it wasn't too high.
1-0: another 86mph CH, almost same location; little higher. Similar to the ones thrown to Ka'aihue and Pennington. Not a good one. Smith lines the next ptich (FB) past Pedroia for a single.

5th inning
Crisp
1-0: 86mph CH, low (called a ball). Coco faked bunt, so not sure how he would've reacted to it. Great movement both H and V), and he seemed to put it in a good spot to get a swinging strike. Probably the most V-movement he's had on it.
Pennington
0-0: starts with an 86mph CH on the outside corner (called strike). Great pitch. Low in the zone, good fade. A pitch Pennington could do nothing with even if he made contact.

6th inning
Reddick
1-0: 83mph CH high and outside. No control on this one. Just a bad pitch all around. Reddick eventually singles on a soft liner to left center.
Ka'aihue
0-2: 86mph CH high and outside. Just like with the last one to Reddick, no control.

The ones thrown in the 6th were just wild. He was clearly done. The rest had some command, but I'd say only 4 of the 10 thrown were "good" pitches: in terms of movement, location, and keeping the hitter off-balance.

Definitely not a step forward in terms of command and location, but it's not a pitch that's getting hit hard (mainly because it's not thrown to the heart of the plate). All around, though, it was an off night for Bard all around. Hope he has a better feel for it next time.

Edited by deconstruction, 09 May 2012 - 12:31 AM.

[86spike]

That's kind of harsh. You can count on both your hands how many starters are capable of this. We generally call those starters aces. Doubront should be the guy to move back to the pen as it would give Valentine something he is desperately trying to get out of Morales, a LHP that can pitch to both sides in the 7th and 8th.

That's not what I'm saying and I think I covered that in my post when I said I don't expect him to go out every time and pitch 6-7 innings of 1 or 2 run ball.

Bard doesn't need to be an ace to be worth keeping as a starter. But if he continues to lose his stamina after getting to 80 pitches in 4 innings... no matter how few runs he gives up in those 4 innings... it's going to become a problem. In his last two starts, he's getting gassed early and then his command suffers, his ability to throw anything but his 93mph fastball for strikes suffers, and at that point he's givign up a lot of baserunners. I hope he can work through this and find his groove, but time's ticking.

As we know, this bullpen is not good enough to absorb 4 or 5 innings a game on a regular basis. If Bard is good for 5 innings per start and his control and secondary pitches don't improve, then (in my opinion, I know others disagree with this) he's not going to be as valuable to the team in that role as he could be at the back of the pen throwing 98+ and not needing to rely on his offspeed stuff.

We'll see. I hope he bounces back.

[tonyarmasjr]

That's not what I'm saying and I think I covered that in my post when I said I don't expect him to go out every time and pitch 6-7 innings of 1 or 2 run ball.

Bard doesn't need to be an ace to be worth keeping as a starter. But if he continues to lose his stamina after getting to 80 pitches in 4 innings... no matter how few runs he gives up in those 4 innings... it's going to become a problem. In his last two starts, he's getting gassed early and then his command suffers, his ability to throw anything but his 93mph fastball for strikes suffers, and at that point he's givign up a lot of baserunners. I hope he can work through this and find his groove, but time's ticking.

As we know, this bullpen is not good enough to absorb 4 or 5 innings a game on a regular basis. If Bard is good for 5 innings per start and his control and secondary pitches don't improve, then (in my opinion, I know others disagree with this) he's not going to be as valuable to the team in that role as he could be at the back of the pen throwing 98+ and not needing to rely on his offspeed stuff.

But what if it takes half a season or more to get there? Stamina isn't built overnight. Growing pains in transitioning to becoming a decent or better starter are to be expected. Should the team sacrifice years of Bard as a productive starter for a couple months of the "struggles" he may have? (Even if he's getting gassed early, he's still averaging 6 IP/start. I can certainly live with that and a 4.5ish ERA. The onus, imo, is on Lester and Beckett to get deep into games.) I guess the question is, how long are we willing to give him to evolve into "Dan Bard, starting pitcher"? I think the benefits far outweigh the cost, meaning I'd give him pretty much all season if he's producing results similar to his first month.

[deconstruction]

TRACKING BARD'S CHANGEUP, ROUND 4

While the night ended sourly for Bard, his use, location, and command of the change in KC were pretty sweet. Overall, he threw 15--way up from previous starts--and most were located well and had Bard's signature sink. Like always, he tended to throw them early in the count and to lefties (although Francour got one this time), but for the most part this time he kept them down-and-away, an improvement on command that I hope will continue. It's funny: as he throws his change from 86 to 90mph, a couple of his faster changes tonight actually looked like sinkers.

Overall results
6 called strikes
1 swinging strike
3 balls
3 fouls
1 GB out
1 GB single

Location



A mixed bag, but I see improvement for a pitch that should be, well, improving. Some floated on him, but more than half are low in the zone, and several are down-and-away. The ones in the middle tended to have good tailing movement and were mixed in well with his FF (or thrown as a 1st pitch), which resulted in them being taken for called stikes or being hit weakly. With Bard's dominant FF and SL, I don't think batters can ever sit change, so he can get away with some that catch a lot of the plate.

Movement



For the most part, Bard had lots of movement on the change, which, coupled with good command, made it very successful tonight. Looking at the yellow cluster above, it seems much more defined than in previous starts, indicating that (a) he's able to command it with more reliability and (b) perhaps throwing it more is promoting this consistency.

Pitch-by-pitch

(if you have an MLB.tv account, I encourage you to use the "clickable linescore" feature, which allows you to jump to each plate appearance, making it easy to see these in action.)

1st inning
Gordon
1-1: 90mph CH, called strike on the inside corner. Good tailing movement to come back over the plate; looked a sinker, but just a few ticks slower. Good pitch to freeze Gordon.
2-2: 90mph CH down in the zone that Gordon flails at, just getting a piece. Just as good movement as the previous. Great pitch. He really commanded these two well.

2nd inning
Francour
1-0: 88mph CH middle-outside for a called strike. Good tailing movement again, but this one was a little up in the zone and probably caught a little too much of the plate. Likely caught Francour by surprise, as it's the kind of pitch he might go the other way with. First and only CH thrown to a righty this season.
Moustakas
1-1: 89mph CH, high and outside for a ball. Not commanded well. OK movement, but not as good as previous three; A floater.
2-1: 89mph CH, high and inside for a ball. Not commanded well, either. From where Shoppach was set up, seemed like it was supposed to be outside. Seemed to get away from him. Moustakas eventually grounded out.

3rd inning
Gordon
0-1: 88mph CH down-and-away that Gordon pulled for a lazy groundout to 2nd. Great location and tailing movement. Good pitch, even if Gordon would've laid off.

4th inning
Hosmer
1-0: 87mph CH on the outside corner for a called strike. Good pitch, but a little too high. Great tailing movement, but not much "sink." Hosmer grounded out to SS on the next pitch.
Moustakas
1-0: 88mph CH, down-and-away that Moustakas whiffed on. Wow. Probably his best of the night. With that location and movement, not much Moustakas could do with it. Didn't drop out of the zone, so it would've been a called strike it he didn't swing.

5th inning
Dyson
0-0: 87mph CH, down-and-away for a called strike. Another really good one. Location was great, movement away from Dyson. If he swings, he either whiffs, tops it to 2nd, or slaps it to the left. Great pitch.

6th inning
Gordon
0-0: 87mph down-and-away for another called strike. Man, so far he's really commanded this pitch well. Perfect placement and good tailing movement.
1-1: Comas back with an 88mph change, this time it stays up in the zone, but Gordon is way ahead of it and grounds it foul to the right. Movement's good, location isn't AS good. But Gordon was fooled. Grounds out on the next pitch.

7th inning
Moustakas
0-0: 88mph, high-and-inside for a called strike. Movement was good, tailed but I doubt Bard wanted it that high. Still, a called strike.
0-1: 87mph, almost the same pitch, but this time Moustakas chops it between SS and 3rd for a GB single. Eck noted the poor location of both. Too high.
Pena
0-1: 88mph on the outside corner that Pena is way ahead of; chops a foul to the right. Good tail, location was decent (could've been a little lower), but Pena was fooled. Blew a the next pitch by him for the SO. Set him up nicely with the FF-CH-FF.

8th inning
Gordon
1-0: 87mph way high-and-outside for a ball. This one got away from him, as did every other pitch in the inning. Clearly he'd lost command of everything--fastball, slider, and change--at this point. He also threw over to 1st three times before the pitch.

-----------

Over the first six innings, outside of the 2nd inning PA to Moustakas, he commanded the change very well and got several called strikes, some weak contact, and a whiff. In the 7th and 8th, he struggled with command, and in the 8th he completely lost it. But I'm encouraged by both the number he threw (at the expense of the slider) and the consistency commanding them. Let's hope his CH percentage remains at 15% or greater.

Check back here after Bard's next start for another update!

[mfried]

Did anyone else think that his mechanics looked strange - hints of pushing the fast ball instead of achieving a good downward plane. Despite the good change-up I thought a better team might have mauled him.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Did anyone else think that his mechanics looked strange - hints of pushing the fast ball instead of achieving a good downward plane. Despite the good change-up I thought a better team might have mauled him.

You're not wrong -- Bard had no control, and got extremely lucky with pitches down broadway:



My donut hole, where art thou?

[lexrageorge]

For every donut hole, there exists a munchkin.

[TomRicardo]

I can give you the cliff notes for the next start. Bard will look good but will be left in too long as Bobby V is fascinated by watching starters lose their stuff.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can give you the cliff notes for the next start. Bard will look good but will be left in too long as Bobby V is fascinated by watching starters lose their stuff.

If you remove the 8 ER which have been plated after Bard records his last out of each game, he's thrown 31 2/3 innings of 2.56 ERA baseball.

[deconstruction]

In fact, you are correct. The Sox have no less than three better options than Albers for that situation -- Padilla, Melancon, and Tazawa.

This makes at least two occurrences already where Padilla has been unavailable when needed, because BobbyV used him when not.

And I dispute that Bard should have been allowed to start the 8th -- his pitchcount was low, and from that measure only was the move defensible. But in the 6th-7th innings, Bard's release point had dropped, his location was off, and the movement on his pitches had flattened. KC did everything they could to gift Bard a win, with their aggressive swinging and foolish bunt attempts. But that generosity was not accepted.

I quoted this from the Manager's decisions thread. Comparing his release point for innings 1-5 to 6-7, I don't see evidence of any "drop." Was this more of an observation of his actual release point?

Edited by deconstruction, 09 May 2012 - 09:08 AM.

[BigMike]

If you remove the 8 ER which have been plated after Bard records his last out of each game, he's thrown 31 2/3 innings of 2.56 ERA baseball.

So what does this nmean though. That when Bard tires he goes from an effective pitcher to just one of the worst in baseball in the matter of a couple of pitches.

[judyb]

Well, it might also mean that the one reliever on the team who can handle inherited runners is never available to bail him out because he keeps having to bail the other starters out before they get to his turn.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I quoted this from the Manager's decisions thread. Comparing his release point for innings 1-5 to 6-7, I don't see evidence of any "drop." Was this more of an observation of his actual release point?

It's mostly based on game-over-game data, because right now I think Bard's fighting through a classic "dead arm" period. Both his arm-slot and average velocity has been trending down over the past three games.

Now, it's only three games, so I'm not particularly worried at this point, but to me it does make even more sense than usual to "baby" him on innings and pitches right now.

Arm-slot trends:



Velocity trends:

[Dogman2]

So what does this nmean though. That when Bard tires he goes from an effective pitcher to just one of the worst in baseball in the matter of a couple of pitches.

Aside from relievers allowing inherited runners to score, it means Bard hits a wall very quickly. In a matter of a couple of pitches, actually. We have seen this at least twice this season. If it is recognizable to all of us watching, it has to be to the coaches. Why put Bard and, subsequently, the relievers in those spots?

[86spike]

Aside from relievers allowing inherited runners to score, it means Bard hits a wall very quickly. In a matter of a couple of pitches, actually. We have seen this at least twice this season. If it is recognizable to all of us watching, it has to be to the coaches. Why put Bard and, subsequently, the relievers in those spots?

the bullpen has been overworked... you really can't warm relievers up early 'just in case' given the amount of time they've all logged lately. So Bard shit himself quickly and the RP took a few batters to warm up.

[judyb]

the bullpen has been overworked... you really can't warm relievers up early 'just in case' given the amount of time they've all logged lately. So Bard shit himself quickly and the RP took a few batters to warm up.

Yes, but why wait when they already had warmed a LHRP for the coming L-L-R-L the inning before? Bard needs to learn how to get past or over or through that wall somehow, but he doesn't have to do it in close games and he doesn't have to do it by mid-May.

[Lose Remerswaal]

the bullpen has been overworked... you really can't warm relievers up early 'just in case' given the amount of time they've all logged lately. So Bard shit himself quickly and the RP took a few batters to warm up.

But you have to expect a starter with only a half dozen starts under his belt is going to start getting tired around the 7th inning, especially when he really hasn't gotten there much before. The whole pen was pretty well rested, and you can and SHOULD have someone ready at the start of the 8th inning when you know your starter does lose it in a hurry.