65 replies to this topic

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I was going to ask how this could happen.

Then I thought..... Light Mankins Connolly/Wendell Waters Vollmer Solder (6 OL)
Gronk Sweetleaf Welker (3)
Brady (1)
BJGE/Woody (1)

Thats 11 guys. 4 targets and Great protection. It would also give you a "Goal Line" running option.

Would Belichick possible do this?

See the first part of my post upthread. We tried this in the first game during the first three quarters and it was absolutely terrible, possibly our worst offensive stretch of the season.

[m0ckduck]

I was going to ask how this could happen.

Then I thought..... Light Mankins Connolly/Wendell Waters Vollmer Solder (6 OL)
Gronk Sweetleaf Welker (3)
Brady (1)
BJGE/Woody (1)

Thats 11 guys. 4 targets and Great protection. It would also give you a "Goal Line" running option.

In the B.S. report podcast that went up today, Mike Lombardi (and Simmons, riding on his coattails) speculates that Belichick will use exactly this personnel pacakge. And, in Lombardi's analysis, Solder counts as a serviceable TE pass target, so that makes it 5 targets.

Edit: but I agree with Morgan above— it seems too reactive, and didn't work well the last go-round

Edited by m0ckduck, 03 February 2012 - 10:14 AM.

[Hendu for Kutch]

While I think it is unlikely to happen due to Chung's late return to the season and the revolving door at safety, I would have Chung in the slot being that physical, re-routing presence against Cruz and then dropping him into underneath coverages (using exotic and disguised combinations depending on what you're doing with your corner and safety on the same side on a particular play or look the Giants are giving).

I think this does a few things:

1.) It frees up a linebacker to stay "in the box" and spy the releasing RB threat.

2.) It allows Chung to cause chaos around the line of scrimmage (he can blitz from the "star" position, he can matchup physically with a WR or TE in the slot, he can better support against the run, etc.). They used Chung quite a bit in this role last year with mixed success; if they had better safety depth/health, maybe they would have tried again this season.

3.) You are keeping Edelman off the field and McCourty at safety.

The drawback, of course, is that Ihedigo will play far more than he should. His lack of speed would scare me, whether as the help defender over the top or picking up Ballard (who's not exactly fleet of foot, either) in man.

Again, don't think this will happen much, if at all, but I like the idea.

There's a bit of historical presidence for this idea. I don't remember which year it was, but I believe it was a playoff game against the Colts. BB had Harrison up at the line jamming Marvin Harrison, with Law playing safety and assuming Marvin for the intermediate/deep part of the field.

[bakahump]

Great analysis MMS.


But I think when I suggested it I meant it as a "one Stop Personnel package" (ie No subs....with the option to run the No Huddle and keep the defense in 1 package) and I envisioned 6 (the OL+TE3..ie Solder) in protection with 4 out as targets.

That basically answers your (well thought out and accurate) issues with the last time we ran the 3 TE Set.

You actually said that our 3 TE package failed (in your opinion) due to excessive subs (allowing the D to do the same and match us) and because of too few targets.

I am skeptical that BB does this in the biggest game of the year when we have run <5% of our formations from it all year.......but there does seem to be some possibilities there.

Solder as a 2-3 target a game passing option (the "Vrabel" LOL) and absolutely blowing up LBers in the running game is intriguing moving forward.

[tims4wins]

There's a bit of historical presidence for this idea. I don't remember which year it was, but I believe it was a playoff game against the Colts. BB had Harrison up at the line jamming Marvin Harrison, with Law playing safety and assuming Marvin for the intermediate/deep part of the field.

Believe it was 2003, the Law 3 interception game

Edit: the 2003 season, so January 2004

Edited by tims4wins, 03 February 2012 - 10:29 AM.

[Boon]

This is exactly the type of thread I was hoping would be in here. Good stuff, folks.

I'm not sure where I would find this, but does anyone know how well Woodhead does on draw plays? I get the sense that Brady may work out of the gun for a good chunk of this game to help provide a little more separation from he and the Giants' D-Line, but I also feel there will be a commitment to the running game. For some reason, it's just sticking in my head that Woodhead typically does well on draw plays, but I'd like to have something to back that up.

[Super Nomario]

The biggest question to me is what the Pats do about Victor Cruz. He lit up the 49ers in the first half of the NFCCG, but SF shut him down in the second half and the Giants' offense completely stagnated. The Pats certainly don't have the weapons the 49ers do on defense, and they've struggled at nickelback in particular. This looks like a key matchup; Cruz is the guy who moves the chains on 3rd down, and if the Pats can contain him the Giants will have to rely on the big play. The below assessment assumes 3 WR / 1 TE / 1 RB formations; when the Giants go 2/1/2 the Pats can run their base defense.

Option 1: Nate Jones. Jones was the primary nickelback for the last quarter of the season, but he was inactive against Denver and only had one snap against Baltimore. Is that because those teams rarely go three wide, or because Jones sucks? He seems like the "safest" option in terms of knowing his responsibilities and not doing something completely stupid, but it doesn't seem like this would end well.

Option 2: Julian Edelman: he's gotten a fair amount of snaps as a dime option (and occasional nickel), and it seemed to be going OK until last week. Cruz is a tough cover for a guy with so little defensive experience, and with Edelman's special teams and offensive responsibilities (possibly increased due to the Gronkowski injury?) it's hard to imagine him getting 50+ snaps on the defensive end.

Option 3: James Ihedigbo: since the Buffalo game week 17 the Pats have shifted McCourty to safety in passing situations with Moore coming in at corner. That frees up Ihedigbo to play in the box or match up on a slot guy or TE. Since his biggest problems are in defending the pass, this doesn't seem like an ideal option.

Option 4: Sterling Moore / Antwaun Molden: these are nominally the #3 / #4 CBs, so it seems like the obvious move. But the Pats have treated nickelback like a separate position this year, using Bodden, Phil Adams, and Jones there pretty much exclusively. Moore hasn't played inside all year, though he does have some reps at safety. Molden played nickelback in the year, but has only played outside since week 7. I view this as unlikely, though if the Pats view one of these guys as a good matchup for Cruz physically they've had two weeks to put some packages in place.

Option 5: Kyle Arrington / Devin McCourty: similar to #4, if the Pats feel one of these guys is a good matchup on Cruz they could move him inside and have Moore or Molden play on the outside. Of the two, Arrington seems more likely. This also might weaken the Pats some in defending Nicks and Manningham outside.

Option 6: Bracketed zone coverage: Mayo, Spikes, Ninkovich, or Fletcher dropping to take away the quick slant or curl, with safety help if he runs a deeper route. This seems like the best option to shut down Cruz, but since it takes two guys it might take away from the ability to stop the run, rush the passer, or defend deep passes.

I imagine the Pats won't use just one thing. I expect mostly 6, but if the Giants are running effectively or the Pats aren't able to get enough pressure they might need to defend Cruz with one guy. I think Arrington is probably the best of our options in that regard. I could also see the Pats using a dime with Arrington and Moore/Molden on the outside, Chung and McCourty deep, Ihedigbo playing in the box as a S/LB hybrid and Edelman or Jones (or Arrington with both Moore and Molden at CB) matching up on Cruz.

[Maalox]

I am with Morgan. Two TEs sets, then run it up the gut. Then play action passes: to TEs on short outs breaking off blocks, digs to Welker, mid-routes. Run it again - I think you will get some big-ass gains running after a while, whereupon you can go to shotgun more and open up the field.

[simplyeric]

The biggest question to me is what the Pats do about Victor Cruz. He lit up the 49ers in the first half of the NFCCG, but SF shut him down in the second half and the Giants' offense completely stagnated. The Pats certainly don't have the weapons the 49ers do on defense, and they've struggled at nickelback in particular. This looks like a key matchup; Cruz is the guy who moves the chains on 3rd down, and if the Pats can contain him the Giants will have to rely on the big play. The below assessment assumes 3 WR / 1 TE / 1 RB formations; when the Giants go 2/1/2 the Pats can run their base defense.

Option 1: Nate Jones. Jones was the primary nickelback for the last quarter of the season, but he was inactive against Denver and only had one snap against Baltimore. Is that because those teams rarely go three wide, or because Jones sucks? He seems like the "safest" option in terms of knowing his responsibilities and not doing something completely stupid, but it doesn't seem like this would end well.

Option 2: Julian Edelman: he's gotten a fair amount of snaps as a dime option (and occasional nickel), and it seemed to be going OK until last week. Cruz is a tough cover for a guy with so little defensive experience, and with Edelman's special teams and offensive responsibilities (possibly increased due to the Gronkowski injury?) it's hard to imagine him getting 50+ snaps on the defensive end.

Option 3: James Ihedigbo: since the Buffalo game week 17 the Pats have shifted McCourty to safety in passing situations with Moore coming in at corner. That frees up Ihedigbo to play in the box or match up on a slot guy or TE. Since his biggest problems are in defending the pass, this doesn't seem like an ideal option.

Option 4: Sterling Moore / Antwaun Molden: these are nominally the #3 / #4 CBs, so it seems like the obvious move. But the Pats have treated nickelback like a separate position this year, using Bodden, Phil Adams, and Jones there pretty much exclusively. Moore hasn't played inside all year, though he does have some reps at safety. Molden played nickelback in the year, but has only played outside since week 7. I view this as unlikely, though if the Pats view one of these guys as a good matchup for Cruz physically they've had two weeks to put some packages in place.

Option 5: Kyle Arrington / Devin McCourty: similar to #4, if the Pats feel one of these guys is a good matchup on Cruz they could move him inside and have Moore or Molden play on the outside. Of the two, Arrington seems more likely. This also might weaken the Pats some in defending Nicks and Manningham outside.

Option 6: Bracketed zone coverage: Mayo, Spikes, Ninkovich, or Fletcher dropping to take away the quick slant or curl, with safety help if he runs a deeper route. This seems like the best option to shut down Cruz, but since it takes two guys it might take away from the ability to stop the run, rush the passer, or defend deep passes.

I imagine the Pats won't use just one thing. I expect mostly 6, but if the Giants are running effectively or the Pats aren't able to get enough pressure they might need to defend Cruz with one guy. I think Arrington is probably the best of our options in that regard. I could also see the Pats using a dime with Arrington and Moore/Molden on the outside, Chung and McCourty deep, Ihedigbo playing in the box as a S/LB hybrid and Edelman or Jones (or Arrington with both Moore and Molden at CB) matching up on Cruz.

I feel like they'd go mostly with option 6, alternating with really trying to "cover" Cruz and just mostly containing him. If he get short/middle gains all day, we'll all be yelling at our tv's about our pourous D, but if the Pat's allow 3rd down conversions without giving up the long balls, and then can cover tightly in the red zone, they might be able to hold the Giants to field goals instead of lots of TD's.
While doing this they might take risks on the bracket coverage, leaving Cruz more open for short/middle (w/ safety help) in order to rush Eli, and hope that one of those times he'll make a mistake.

[Eddie Jurak]

On the offensive side, I'd like to see Ocho and Ridley in the game. I don't expect much of anything from Ocho, especially since the Pats are likely to spend a lot of the game in no-huddle & 2 TE sets, and they can't give extended playing time to a WR who doesn't have Brady's confidence. However, he may be the best deep threat we have (or at least threat of a deep threat - certainly we don't want to see them throwing to Slater again). And, should Gronk either not be able to go or bot be effective, the Pats offense starts to look a little thin. There's a small positive chance that Ocho catches a 50 yard TD pass, so I think he's got to be in the game. (That said, the over/under on catches for Ocho (if he dresses) is probably 0.5, only because it can't be any lower). With Underwood cut, it seems likely that Ocho will play.

Ridley is a guy with a better shot to make an impact. Ball security is important, but Ridley's not the first RB to ever fumble or even the last Patriot RB to fumble. Among all of the Pats backs, he's the guy most likely to break one. I don't see the Pats going into tomorrow's game expecting Ridley to have a big role, but it would be crazy to leave a potential weapon inactive because they are a little thin in weapons.

On defense, I'm thinking that we'll see less of Edelman on defense after Boldin exposed him last week.

[BigSoxFan]

Agree on Ridley. And if BJGE gets hurt, we have absolutely no running game. Ridley needs to be active for depth purposes.

[axx]

Agree on Ridley. And if BJGE gets hurt, we have absolutely no running game. Ridley needs to be active for depth purposes.

Except they've been using Weedz as a RB. I imagine we will see more of that. Don't know if Ridley's fumbling problems are something that can be fixed during the season.

[Al Zarilla]

Agree on Ridley. And if BJGE gets hurt, we have absolutely no running game. Ridley needs to be active for depth purposes.

Short Round, I mean Woodhead, Faulk, Hernandez. Yeah, although BJGE is tough, you have a good point.

[Doctor G]

With the 30 minute half time i would guess
Bradshaw will be limited in the second half.

[abty]

My apologies for earlier. Sincerely. Here is my analysis/strategies from my yearly observations as well as a link to a great resource for more detailed analysis/breakdowns that stat lovers will enjoy.

Patriots On Defense

The Patriots should focus, only when they are playing red zone defense, on Bear Pascoe and Jake Ballard. 2 Guys who are the height/near size of Gronk who have good hands and can sneak thorugh (though they are slow as shit compared to Gronk). Pascoe delivered a big TD last week and the Giants, unless Manningham is open, usually seem to spit the bit in the red zone. They have struggled there all year and your team has done a great job preventing TD's in red zone match-ups. Do not worry so much about giving up yardage to the Giants. The Giants are great at finding ways to fuck up their drives. Just keep the TE's out of it when they are within 10-15 yards and watch Manningham! He is sneaky and was responsible for that great 3rd and 15 season saving TD last game vs the 49'ers among other big TD's this year.

The Silent Killer

The Giants running game is awful. One thing not many fans know to look for is the Giants running on the exterior. If you think about the most recent big TD's Bradshaw has had, or even the big runs, it's usually to his right. You can guarantee at least 1 attempt, should they hit the red zone, before they try to hit a TE should he be stopped. Stuffing the middle will be pointless as Brandon Jacobs has pattented the 'hit a brick wall, do nothing' run. Don't waste your energy on those plays. Protect their right side. I noticed a stat that showed when there are interior runs, the Giants are near last in the league if not dead last. On exterior runs, they are near the top of the league. So look for that.

Also, the Patriots shouldn't take Bradshaw lightly. He usually is due for one or two good explosions per game and he and Jacobs, despite their awful (although somewhat improved 5 game running stretch) numbers, usually find themselves breaking through later in the game - especially in close games. You need to convince Kevin Gillbride early to give up on the run. Trust me, he is usually more than willing to do this.

The Predictable & Not So Predictable

Look for the Giants to use Cruz as the only WR regularly used in the middle* and bully, along with Nicks, the CB's outside the numbers. This is especially true early in the game. That is their main strength and has led Eli, who has been accurate so far in this great run, has reduced his INT numbers in the process. Eli will be aware that there is a pass rush aiming for his head and will allow Ballard and Bradshaw to take short passes while saiving manningham/Pascoe for the red zone. Nicks and Cruz will be the play maker, long pass receivers and guys like Hynoski will be used to block and sneak a few short yardage plays as well. Jacobs will stand around and pick tissue balls out of his ass.

If I'm the Patriots, I worry more about shutting down the short pass and running game because the Giants will gain yards no matter what . Eli has 3 400 yard games and always plays well in domes (3 games). The key is to make sure they beat themselves in the red zone and get him to scramble. His INT's usually come from misread routes (Nicks/Manningham) in the middle and throwing off his back foot/scrambling and trying to do too omuch.

Also, look to make sure Cruz doesn't do this:



Courtesy Of Pro Football Focus. Read the article no how he operates. It's a great job by that site and a must read site for those who love good analysis. I found them yesterday. Maybe you guys know of 'em...if so, sorry.

Giants On Defense

Everybody talks about the pass rush. I want them to force Brady to get rattled not by knocking him around early on in the game. I want them to focus on stopping the run early and covering Gronk/Welker. Ironically, getting burned by Davis for 2 TD's may have helped them because they were forced to re-adjust their plans against TE's with speed -such as Gronk. I fear that if they shut him down they would get cocky. That break down in coverage on the 2nd TD to Davis had smoke coming out of Fewell's ears. If the Giants do execute one thing well, that can help them win, it'll be avoiding the home run play to Gronk/Hernandez and forcing the Patriots to kick FG's. I'm not saying they will accomplish this, but I have a feeling they will sacrifice some pass rush plays to put more emphasis on coverage the 'oh fuck' play that almost took them out of the playoffs 2 weeks ago. I think all the big talk about pass rursh, from the Giants camp these 2 weeks, is a decoy. I think they know it won't work as well with your team and are focused on forcing you to score by running the ball/using the receivers. /theory

Special Teams

The Giants need to just accept the reality that their punt returners are not going to help them this game. Look for their focus to be on Weatherford pinning you back and the return team focusing on just holding onto the ball. As for their tacklers, when they kick it off to you, watch out for Devin Thomas and Jacquian Williams might hurt their team, believe it or not, due to wanting to do too much after last week. I can see Edleman, if he's returning, take advantage of it. Just a weird feeling.

Giants' Lesser Knwon Players To Watch

Blackburn, Pascoe and Kiwi. If they have a good game, the Giants will win. IF not, I will hold my nose. I already know big mouth Rolle won't do jack shit. /strategy

* Edit. I realize this statement about Cruz in the middle might be confusing. Gillbride's system sometimes calls for dangerous throws in the middle that, until last year, usually resulted in drops or interceptions. Cruz and Eli, who have trained since the pre season in small drills Eli developed, have a tremendous relationship. Cruz is sneaky and is unpredictable because the offense calls for it. So while he will look to expose the defense on the #'s, esp. early in the game, you'll find that Eli will present opportunties for interceptions. It's just that, when he and Cruz are on, they are impossible to block. The Patriots need to learn to read these plays and anticipate them as, if they do, they can be the few 'cookies' that come their way. I will try to find the article I read that broke this concept down beautifully. In the meantime I wanted to further clarify what I was talking about.

Edited by abty, 04 February 2012 - 11:37 PM.

[BigSoxFan]

Short Round, I mean Woodhead, Faulk, Hernandez. Yeah, although BJGE is tough, you have a good point.

At this point, any handoff to Faulk is a waste of a play. And I don't want Hernandez getting popped as a RB when Gronk might be iffy. Even without an injury issue, I'd like to see Ridley get a few carries.