113 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

Perhaps this thread is better suited for the off-season, but there was a bit of discussion about this in one of the other threads and Ocho, himself, commented on it today, so it's probably worth discussing.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Chad Ochocinco made no secret about his desire to come back to the Patriots next season for the second year of his three-year, $11.5 million contract, which includes a $4.5 million signing bonus agreed to in July.

"You [expletive] right. Can I curse? Don't bleep it, I'm just being me. [Expletive] right," Ochocinco told reporters Wednesday morning.

"Let me address this, the New England Patriots is an elite organization where everything is in house and always stays in house, it's like Fort Knox. There are no leaks, no sources, so claimed, going around the league. There's no such thing. So, with the media, with the fans, with everyone else, is their public opinion on what they feel might be the problem. They don't know what goes on behind closed doors. Nobody does," he said.

Ochocinco caught just 15 passes and one touchdown this season, his first with Patriots after a late summer trade from Cincinnati landed him in Foxboro.

Is the system difficult, Ochocinco was asked.

"No, there's no system [problem]," he said "I'm extremely intelligent, extremely intelligent. Football sense, life, the way I carry myself, the things I do, we can all see I have sense, I'm smart. It's just that it didn't play out the way it was supposed to play out."

Ochocinco was also asked about his relationship with quarterback Tom Brady.

"We're dating," he joked with a straight face. "First year of a marriage is always rough."

http://www.weei.com/..._medium=twitter

[Shelterdog]

I think he does come back but he would have to massively restructure the deal.

Interestingly Bedard noted that Ocho had a 2.5 million signing bonus with an extra 2 million of singing bonus due in 2012-not a 4.5 million signing bonus. So they have to pay him $5 million in 2012 (and take up about $4.8 million in cap room, $3 million in salary, about $800k from his 2011 bonus and about $1 million from 2012) if he stays in his current city (and he's a $1.6 million cap hit if they cut him).

[soxfan121]

Yes, and Deion Branch will not be. To cut Ocho would result in a ~$4M dead money charge - absolutely no reason to incur that unless he was an off-field problem. In salary, Ocho will be due $3M (+$1.5M signing bonus amortization), which is $1M more than Deion made in 2011.

The Pats keep Ocho, Branch leaves and another developmental WR is added.

If Chad is "struggling" with the offense in camp next summer, he might get cut. But they'll give him the off-season program and next season as it's the most cost-effective move.

From Miguel's Cap Page (which, frankly, I trust far more than any individual media guy):

August 11, 2011 update On August 11th, 2011 ESPN.Com's Mike Reiss blogged that "I got mixed up on one part of Ochocinco's deal that changes the context of analyzing it. Initially, it was my understanding that Ochocinco was to receive bonuses of about $1.5 million in 2011, 2012 and 2013, but that was a protated salary cap charge on his $4.5 million signing bonus. So Ochocinco gets $4.5 million up front, and then has base salaries of $1 million in 2011, $3 million in 2012 and $3 million in 2013. That makes his 2011 pay cut look a bit different -- from $6 million to $5.5 million."

<a name="ochocinco" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Times New Roman'; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 204); font-size: medium; ">

Edited by soxfan121, 01 February 2012 - 11:23 AM.

[Shelterdog]

Yes, and Deion Branch will not be. To cut Ocho would result in a ~$4M dead money charge - absolutely no reason to incur that unless he was an off-field problem. In salary, Ocho will be due $3M (+$1.5M signing bonus amortization), which is $1M more than Deion made in 2011.

How do you get to a $4m dead money charge?

[Corsi]

Is there room for Brandon Lloyd on this team, as well?

[mt8thsw9th]

How do you get to a $4m dead money charge?

By cutting Chad.

[Shelterdog]

By cutting Chad.

I know, but how does he calculate $4 million in dead cap money for Chad in 2012?

[soxfan121]

How do you get to a $4m dead money charge?

Sorry - that's $3M, not $4M. The remaining amortization on his signing bonus. The way it was structured "paid" Ocho $6M in 2011 - $4.5M in signing bonus, $1M in salary and a roster/workout bonus. The signing bonus is amortized over the length of the contract (3 years) and becomes dead when he's cut.

I know you know this, but it's bound to confuse someone in this thread.

[Koufax]

If they haven't cut him yet, it is hard to understand why they would cut him before the start of next season. He has clearly shown himself to be a team player; his history suggests that he is a talented receiver; even if he has lost a step he has value. Tom Brady and he need to get their signals straight. Maybe they can work on that before the next season starts.

[Shelterdog]

Sorry - that's $3M, not $4M. The remaining amortization on his signing bonus. The way it was structured "paid" Ocho $6M in 2011 - $4.5M in signing bonus, $1M in salary and a roster/workout bonus. The signing bonus is amortized over the length of the contract (3 years) and becomes dead when he's cut.

I know you know this, but it's bound to confuse someone in this thread.

Gotcha.

I can't find it now but Bedard has reported that Ocho actually didn't get the 4.5 or 4.75 in signing bonus-he got 2.5 in signing bonus in 2011 and 2012 deferred to and $2 million, so if they cut him his dead money would only be the acceleration of the pro rated part of the 2.5, not the 4, so like 1.6 to cut him.

EDIT: Here's a link:

http://cdn.muckrack....183141088100353

Edited by Shelterdog, 01 February 2012 - 11:36 AM.

[soxfan121]

First I've seen that - if true, it's no longer a simple math problem.

If Miguel's numbers are correct, in 2012 it costs ~$3M to cut Ocho and it costs $3M to keep Chad. The only reason to cut someone when it saves you zero dollars is because he's an actual problem or completely, undeniably washed up.

If the cap hit to cut is $1.5M and the cost to keep is $3M, production becomes more important.

[Fishercat]

I'm guessing a lot of it depends on how he comes into training camp next year. I have to keep reminding myself that he was traded for in early August. That means he's basically had five months to learn the system...with all five of those months including some sort of games (preseason, regular season, postseason) coming off of a lockout where a bunch of other players needed to get caught up. If this option WR system is as testy as some say it is for WRs, and Brady goes to trusted targets first, giving Ocho time makes sense.

I'd be very surprised if they don't let him make it to the pre-season, but he could be a surprise cut after that. I don't think there's a huge financial incentive to cut him unless the money saved really brings in an impact player

[Shelterdog]

First I've seen that - if true, it's no longer a simple math problem.

If Miguel's numbers are correct, in 2012 it costs ~$3M to cut Ocho and it costs $3M to keep Chad. The only reason to cut someone when it saves you zero dollars is because he's an actual problem or completely, undeniably washed up.

If the cap hit to cut is $1.5M and the cost to keep is $3M, production becomes more important.

He's a fucking goner if he doesn't restructure. He costs something like $5 million in real money and $4.8ish in cap space if he's on the team which is way, way, way too high for a player of his caliber.

[soxfan121]

He's a fucking goner if he doesn't restructure. He costs something like $5 million in real money and $4.8ish in cap space if he's on the team which is way, way, way too high for a player of his caliber.

Sure, if Bedard's tweet is reliable.

But it's entirely possible that Branch and Welker are elsewhere and that would leave Chad & Edelman as the experienced WR under contract. If Chad converts guaranteed money to incentives (and taking him at his word, he wants to stay) then it's even more likely that we'll have an opportunity to kvetch about him next season.

[Shelterdog]

Sure, if Bedard's tweet is reliable.

But it's entirely possible that Branch and Welker are elsewhere and that would leave Chad & Edelman as the experienced WR under contract. If Chad converts guaranteed money to incentives (and taking him at his word, he wants to stay) then it's even more likely that we'll have an opportunity to kvetch about him next season.

Bedard is pretty reliable. He's a salty bastard but he's been a good reporter.

I think they'd rather go with Underwood and whatever they could get with $5 million in cap space than Ocho but we'll have to see. There are very, very few times in the past decade they've had guys taking up way too much cap space/salary.

[soxfan121]

There are very, very few times in the past decade they've had guys taking up way too much cap space/salary.

No doubt - and they usually always structure deals so they can move on as quickly as possible if things go south. Haynesworth is a classic example.

In that light, the Bedard report makes more sense. If the money is that out of whack, Ocho will need to give back a significant portion to keep his roster spot. $2M or less would be fine with me, given the Pats RIDICULOUSLY good cap management.

That all said, I think the Welker/Branch situation will determine what happens with Ocho. If Ocho slots into Branch's $2M and both the other guys leave, Ocho has more value than he does if Welker is given $8 or $9M / year.

Personally, I'd let Welker/Branch move on, lock up Ocho on a "we can dump you at the end of TC" reduced deal with incentives, draft a WR and throw the money at Mario Williams. For every Reche Caldwell, there is a Jabar Gaffney and the two best weapons are back regardless. Addressing the defensive problems should be where $ is allocated.

[Royal Reader]

I have no problem letting Branch move on, but I'd seriously hesitate before letting Welker go anywhere. Mario Williams is a pipe dream, the franchise tag exists for a reason. Talking about him is as much a waste of time as all the jonesing for Woodley last offseason.

[Shelterdog]

I have no problem letting Branch move on, but I'd seriously hesitate before letting Welker go anywhere. Mario Williams is a pipe dream, the franchise tag exists for a reason. Talking about him is as much a waste of time as all the jonesing for Woodley last offseason.

Agreed. There's no way we get Mario Williams and you've got to think that Welker stays in NE-he's more valuable to us than to anyone else.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Is there room for Brandon Lloyd on this team, as well?

As much as I hope so, I'm not sure he'd take a paycut to play here. I could be wrong though.

[soxfan121]

Agreed. There's no way we get Mario Williams and you've got to think that Welker stays in NE-he's more valuable to us than to anyone else.

Spend money on defense (Williams was just a name - there's gonna be lots of good defensive FA this offseason) not on 30+ year old WR with knee issues. I love Wes Welker but not at more than he's paid now.

[Corsi]

Spend money on defense (Williams was just a name - there's gonna be lots of good defensive FA this offseason) not on 30+ year old WR with knee issues. I love Wes Welker but not at more than he's paid now.

Cmon, knee issues? I know he had a horrific injury, but he looks as explosive as ever these days. Let's not get carried away.

He's the straw that stirs the drink, as far as I'm concerned.

[Royal Reader]

He's the straw that stirs the drink, as far as I'm concerned.

Ditto. He does as much as anyone to keep drives alive. The number of times he makes a catch one yard past the first down marker on third down is incredible. It can be replaced, but to do that I think they'd need an RB who was a good checkdown option out of the backfield. They don't have that at the moment, and since they spent two highish picks on backs last time out, I doubt they will target that area in the draft. I guess at the very least, I see Welker being franchised while they draft a replacement or see if Ridley or Vereen can fill that role.

[Shelterdog]

Cmon, knee issues? I know he had a horrific injury, but he looks as explosive as ever these days. Let's not get carried away.

He's the straw that stirs the drink, as far as I'm concerned.

More importantly he's the straw that stirs the drink as far as Tom Brady is concerned.

I think at the end of the day there just won't be that many teams that want Welker-he is an older slot receiver and it's going to be a buyer's market this year-and he and the Pats work something out.

[soxfan121]

Cmon, knee issues? I know he had a horrific injury, but he looks as explosive as ever these days. Let's not get carried away.

He's the straw that stirs the drink, as far as I'm concerned.

No one is getting carried away but the injury history and age are relevant. And he hasn't lost much but age always wins and knee injuries tend to steepen the decline. Three years from now, is 33 year old Wes Welker worth $8M or more? Not IMO and probably not in the FO's opinion. Tom Brady's opinion cannot be allowed to make personnel decisions with long-lasting cap effects.

This is a thread about whether a 33+ year old WR who has lost a step will be cut or how much of a salary reduction he needs to give up to keep his roster spot. Three years from now, it's a different conversation if the cap hit is twice what Ocho's is now.

Branch on a one-year deal is much more likely than a "market value" multi-year contract for Welker. If Welker is willing to take much less than a guy with 100+ catches can get on the open market, then maybe.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I can guarantee you one thing: there's no way the Pats are paying any receiver $8 million a year.

[Ed Hillel]

Letting Welker go would be certifiable. The Pats have a ton of cap room and he's really the only big-name guy they have to retain, assuming Ocho is either gone or signed for less (which is what I think will happen). Welker will either sign a 3-4 year deal or be back with the franchise. The Pats could afford both Welker and Williams if they really wanted, though I highly doubt we see BB ever go after the big name FA again. I could see him maybe go after a guy like Goldson, though. They kind of need safety help. Not sure who else will be available at the position.

As for Ocho, I think at this point in his career, more than anything, he wants to prove he can make it in this system with Brady. Just watching his interviews, it seems to be his goal from here on out. I think BB and Brady will approach him and ask him to stick around for a pay break, and I think he'll take it. Think about it, where's he gonna go now and get a ton of money anyway? If he gets cut, nobody is gonna give him more than a couple million. He's made his money, does the million or so make a big difference to him now? I don't think it's as important as what he wants to accomplish.

I can guarantee you one thing: there's no way the Pats are paying any receiver $8 million a year.

You think they'd let Welker walk before franchising him with all the money they have available and the money they will free up cutting or restructuring a few guys like Ocho?

I just don't see it. Welker will be back.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 01 February 2012 - 02:02 PM.

[Super Nomario]

Won't they just franchise Welker if they can't work out a deal? I think the chances he's back next year are almost 100%.

[Riles335]

I think there were a couple of different reasons why the Patriots didn't cut ties with Ochocinco this season and one of those reasons is because they want him back again next year. Ocho seems confident that he was able to use this season as an advantage towards learning the system and I believe him. I know its frustrating to see Ochocinco struggle to see the field but with a shortened off season, getting involved with this system is extremely difficult. Welker and Branch (previous connection) have made it look really easy but if you look through the history of WR's that the Patriots have had over the past decade, many of them haven't worked out. Ochocinco is in with that majority but I think because of his talent level and history, he will be back again next year and I think that is a great thing for the Patriots.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

You think they'd let Welker walk before franchising him with all the money they have available and the money they will free up cutting or restructuring a few guys like Ocho?

I just don't see it. Welker will be back.

I didn't say that. I did say I can't see them paying any receiver $8 million a year.

But I do think he'll be back. Maybe they'll guarantee more of his money in exchange for keeping the annual salary lower. We'll see. I'm not too worried that they'll lose him.

[Otto]

This Ochocinco discussion hinges, in part, on the nature of the payment that was deferred until 3/31/12.

What we know is that $2M of the $4.75M signing bonus was deferred until 3/31/12. We also know that the entire $4.75 was applied to the cap on a pro-rata basis for 2011, 2012, and 2013. That suggests the $2M is just a deferral of signing bonus and therefore, guaranteed. There are some narrow exceptions to that rule, but I don't see any that would apply here. If that's accurate, cutting him before that payment is due doesn't improve the cap hit, currently scheduled to be about $4.6M in 2012 and 2013.

[Shelterdog]

This Ochocinco discussion hinges, in part, on the nature of the payment that was deferred until 3/31/12.

What we know is that $2M of the $4.75M signing bonus was deferred until 3/31/12. We also know that the entire $4.75 was applied to the cap on a pro-rata basis for 2011, 2012, and 2013. That suggests the $2M is just a deferral of signing bonus and therefore, guaranteed. There are some narrow exceptions to that rule, but I don't see any that would apply here. If that's accurate, cutting him before that payment is due doesn't improve the cap hit, currently scheduled to be about $4.6M in 2012 and 2013.

Interesting-how are you sure that the 4.75 was applied pro rata 2011-2013? is there a public document with the "real" cap numbers?

[Stitch01]

I can guarantee you one thing: there's no way the Pats are paying any receiver $8 million a year.

Even on a one year franchise tag? DIsagree if you are including that. They paid a guard like 11MM last year didnt they? Think the years are what scare the Pats here more than $$ on a short deal.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Even on a one year franchise tag? DIsagree if you are including that. They paid a guard like 11MM last year didnt they? Think the years are what scare the Pats here more than $$ on a short deal.

Franchise tag for WRs for next season is 9.4 million. That's a tough one to swallow. Maybe you're right in that they will pay it if it's only one year, but since they value roster flexibility so much, it's tough to guess what they might do.

[Ed Hillel]

Yeah, I was talking about the franchise number. I just don't see a way they don't franchise him if they can't come to an agreement. I think they will utlimately reach a long-term deal, whether before or after he gets tagged.

[Otto]

Interesting-how are you sure that the 4.75 was applied pro rata 2011-2013? is there a public document with the "real" cap numbers?

There is not; yes, I'm sure.

[Shelterdog]

There is not; yes, I'm sure.

Thanks-I'd assumed that the defferred signing bonus was actually some kind of option bonus but I guess not.

Assuming the signing bonus is guaranteed then he takes up about $4.5 million of cap space on the team and about $3 million off the team, so the math becomes Ocho or 1.5 million and one roster spot-so you probably keep him at least into training camp.

Edited by Shelterdog, 01 February 2012 - 02:53 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

I just finished reading Michael Holley's War Room a few weeks ago. It gives a lot of insight into how BB builds a team. If I had to guess I'd say they would give Welker a very good deal but would not "set the market" for him. He will have to leave money on the table to stay.

[Shelterdog]

I just finished reading Michael Holley's War Room a few weeks ago. It gives a lot of insight into how BB builds a team. If I had to guess I'd say they would give Welker a very good deal but would not "set the market" for him. He will have to leave money on the table to stay.

In Welker's case I'm not sure who would set the market for him; I don't think anyone backs up the brinks truck for a 31 year old slot receiver.

[Royal Reader]

And if they franchise him, then teams are looking at a 32yo slot receiver by the time he can negotiate with anyone else, so the Pats have some leverage.

[soxfan121]

In Welker's case I'm not sure who would set the market for him; I don't think anyone backs up the brinks truck for a 31 year old slot receiver.

This is the key component - you think there's a limited market for a 31 year old "system" WR with a knee injury history. I think the Pats are the team that has proven time and again that they don't pay premium, "market" rates on anyone (Branch, Samuel, Givens, etc.) unless they absolutely have to in order to retain the player (Mankins).

I can see some team offering 4 years, $30-35M, with $15-18M guaranteed. And the Pats will not match that, not with the back end having so much risk. Conversely, I can see the Pats offering a 3 year, $20M deal with $10M guaranteed and Welker's agent being insulted by that offer for a perennial 100-catch, best-slot-WR-in-the-NFL.

Contracts with guys north of their prime, who've been outperforming their existing contract from day 1, and with an injury history are difficult. Lots of risk, the biggest being that you're paying for past performance.

[Shelterdog]

I can see some team offering 4 years, $30-35M, with $15-18M guaranteed. And the Pats will not match that, not with the back end having so much risk. Conversely, I can see the Pats offering a 3 year, $20M deal with $10M guaranteed and Welker's agent being insulted by that offer for a perennial 100-catch, best-slot-WR-in-the-NFL.

That's what I'm getting back to though-which team? If I'm a GM I would only make the move if I had cap space, was pretty close to the super bowl, didn't have a decent slot receiver, and felt good about my QB's ability to use a slot receiver. Throw in the decent receivers who are also free agents (Reggie Wayne, Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, and restricted free agent Mike Wallace) and I think you have a pretty lukewarm market for Wes.

I just don't see anyone giving him 4/35, but who knows.

[Stitch01]

This is the key component - you think there's a limited market for a 31 year old "system" WR with a knee injury history. I think the Pats are the team that has proven time and again that they don't pay premium, "market" rates on anyone (Branch, Samuel, Givens, etc.) unless they absolutely have to in order to retain the player (Mankins).

I can see some team offering 4 years, $30-35M, with $15-18M guaranteed. And the Pats will not match that, not with the back end having so much risk. Conversely, I can see the Pats offering a 3 year, $20M deal with $10M guaranteed and Welker's agent being insulted by that offer for a perennial 100-catch, best-slot-WR-in-the-NFL.

Contracts with guys north of their prime, who've been outperforming their existing contract from day 1, and with an injury history are difficult. Lots of risk, the biggest being that you're paying for past performance.

It never gets to this point because he gets franchised. There has to be a team willing to offer that big money contract and pay compensation to the Pats. I dont see it.

[axx]

Ocho cut, Branch cut or retires, Welker franchised but no new deal.
In is Lloyd and a high draft pick. I know people will be pissed at taking a WR high in the draft, but I think that's what's going to happen.

[Reverend]

Two things:

Thing one: One wonders eat sort of conversations Branch and Welker have had about life

Thing two: One wonders what other head coaches think about the trajectory of Branch's career.


Also, Otto--really much love, if DRS gets his props on the Gronk thread, you deserve your appreciation for telling us what's what on the contract stuff; that's a. If part of why this is a good place.

[Otto]

Also, Otto--really much love, if DRS gets his props on the Gronk thread, you deserve your appreciation for telling us what's what on the contract stuff; that's a. If part of why this is a good place.

Thanks, I'm glad I can contribute ... even if its football-related information on a baseball board.

[Carmine Hose]

Keep this name in mind - Ryan Broyles

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Keep this name in mind - Ryan Broyles

i've been on the Broyles bandwagon for a while now.

Ocho from a PFT entry(http://profootballta...ebration-ready/)

"“Normally, everybody knows I have crazy celebrations that I do all the time,” Ochocinco said. “I’ve been kind of quiet on the celebrations and the production this year, so if I score this Sunday I might do something. It’s the biggest stage.”"

In a game that many expect to come down to turnovers and field position, my head will literally explode if he gets an excessive celebration penalty for something pre-meditated. (though even in a dome, Gostkowski might (?) be able to get it out of the end zone)

[JimBoSox9]

Interesting take on the Ocho situation from ESPN.com. Definitely doesn't mesh with my own interpretation (beyond a slight missing of Ocho's hijinks) of the situation.

He's become the Artist Formerly Known as Chad Ochocinco -- a ghost, a cipher, a six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver who seemed so pounded down Tuesday by having to answer waves of questions at Super Bowl XLVI media day about how irrelevant he's become to the New England Patriots that someone finally asked him, "Are you sad?"

Now we're told the 34-year-old Ochocinco, comic genius, is an alleged slacker and a dim-bulb, slow learner to boot. He got called out shortly into the regular season in an extraordinarily harsh public scolding from Tedy Bruschi, the retired Pats linebacker-turned-ESPN analyst whom Patriots coach Bill Belichick once called "the perfect football player." When Ochocinco tweeted on Sept. 13 that he was in "awe" of how well the Pats' offense had just played, Bruschi fired back. His basic message was Ochocinco was an affront to "the Patriot way."

Ochocinco never rallied after that humiliating beatdown. He never made much of a murmur the rest of the season. But I don't buy the company line since then that it's as simple as Ochocinco being too lazy or incapable (both loaded stereotypes) of picking up the Patriots' playbook, even if given months.

He seems to have been taken aback at the rancor this caused in New England. Or how much people have enjoyed seeing him get a comeuppance since then. Questions were put to Brady on Tuesday about whether Ochocinco can get a ball this Sunday. Just one crumb.

[soxhop411]

http://sports.yahoo....-203938755.html


going back to Chad Johnson , due to wedding

Edited by soxhop411, 10 February 2012 - 08:31 PM.

[kenneycb]

Start the cOnspiracy theory that he sucked this year so he wouldn't have to buy back as much Ochocinco merchandise once he changes his name back to Johnson. Guy is just one step ahead of us all.