70 replies to this topic

[simplyeric]

Too much Gronkbsession, and the Revenge thread is too hot (revenge is best served cold, no?).

So, a pointless poll to distract us a little. Please delete and let me know if this is inappropriate. I wouldn't post this if it hadn't been such a miasma this week. I would just like to talk a little about "football", but don't have the focus at the moment to discuss serious tactics so I was thinking about unusual/trick plays that might happen on Sunday. Someone mentioned fake field-goals, the Vrabel plays, and the ultimate deception of running from a standard I-formation.

Do people think Belichick will play it "by the book"? Will there be a rogue audible into a fake punt? Would Giants fans take it as an insult if there was a classic "Statue of Liberty" play? Wasn't one of the first plays in The Unmentionable a double reverse that didn't work (I was 36 and drunk in Florence in a cafe full of college girls, and refuse to revisit the game, so it's a bit cloudy).

edit: I voted for "intentional safety" because it's my favorite "situational/trick" play ever, I think.

Edited by simplyeric, 31 January 2012 - 12:21 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

None of those things will happen. I suspect we won't see a fake punt again in the BB era after the clusterfuck in last year's playoff game.

[simplyeric]

Smiling Joe Hesketh, on 31 January 2012 - 09:01 AM, said:

None of those things will happen. I suspect we won't see a fake punt again in the BB era after the clusterfuck in last year's playoff game.

(not that it matters, but that's what the "Welker on an option route" is meant to be: if the most "unusual" play is an option route, that's pretty much by the book)

[tims4wins]

Yeah I'm with SJH - no trickeration

[Joshv02]

If anything, pass to Solder.

They've used Solder as the 3rd TE repeatedly, he used to be a TE, is huge, is known for his athleticism, and the downside is minimal. Plus, they haven't tried it, and in the situation in which it would be useful naturally leads to having Solder get a relatively clean release (as Gronk and Hernandez will receive all the attention from in-line defenders).

[NickEsasky]

I could definitely see a direct snap to Woodhead or Faulk, comeplete with Brady fake out move near the goal line.

[maufman]

I voted 4th and short near midfield.

I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring game, with both teams moving the ball fairly easily between the 20s. If I'm right, that means we're unlikely to see any true "trick plays." It would, however, reduce the utility of punting, and BB is savvy enough to pick up on that and make an in-game adjustment.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Joshv02, on 31 January 2012 - 09:07 AM, said:

If anything, pass to Solder.

They've used Solder as the 3rd TE repeatedly, he used to be a TE, is huge, is known for his athleticism, and the downside is minimal. Plus, they haven't tried it, and in the situation in which it would be useful naturally leads to having Solder get a relatively clean release (as Gronk and Hernandez will receive all the attention from in-line defenders).

Seconded. Surprised it hasn't been tried at all during the season.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

A shift that results in Hernandez at RB and Polite lining up at TE. Play action fake to Hernandez and Brady hits throws to an uncovered Polite for a first down. Later they reserve the option to use it again and hand the ball to Hernandez.

[SoxScout]

Joshv02, on 31 January 2012 - 09:07 AM, said:

If anything, pass to Solder.

They've used Solder as the 3rd TE repeatedly, he used to be a TE, is huge, is known for his athleticism, and the downside is minimal. Plus, they haven't tried it, and in the situation in which it would be useful naturally leads to having Solder get a relatively clean release (as Gronk and Hernandez will receive all the attention from in-line defenders).

Mort just talked about this on ESPN. It's not going to surprise the Giants.

That said, I'll say Ocho does something. 1 or 2 TDs.

[jose melendez]

There is more than a 90% chance that they will try to go deep to Ocho at some point in this game. It will not end well.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

jose melendez, on 31 January 2012 - 09:35 AM, said:

There is more than a 90% chance that they will try to go deep to Ocho at some point in this game. It will not end well.

Why not? He did catch a long bomb in Denver this year. You might figure the Giants aren't going to double him.

[dcmissle]

What Payton created McCarthy destroyed? At least for this year and opponent. Not even an entry for an onside kick.

[tims4wins]

I find it hilarious the number of people who are still holding out hope for Ocho. The guy has played ONE SNAP in the playoffs, and all of a sudden he is going to become some uber-secret weapon? I think not.

Even if Gronk is a no-go, I don't think we see much Ocho (maybe 10-15 snaps) - I think it will be mostly Welker-Branch-Edelman-Hernandez-RB.

Edit: clarity

Edited by tims4wins, 31 January 2012 - 09:50 AM.

[ShaneTrot]

The Pats will be very aggressive on Sunday. They were conservative against Baltimore because Baltimore is not a high powered offense and they wanted to minimize mistakes and play for field position. NY is lethal with those three receivers and the NE pass defense is shaky. I expect they will go for most 4th and shorts when they are around the 50 because Brady is great at the sneak. I expect they will not go for long field goals but try to make first downs to maximize their offensive chances. I expect no trick plays but a whole lot of no huddle and more passes to the backs then we normally see because the safeties and the LBs are going to be concerned with the TEs and Welker.

[baruch20]

I was 32 and drunk in Bangkok in a shithole "restaurant" not full of college girls (likely a few unhirable bargirls), but full of wasted, smelly, unwashed NY Giants fans all screaming "18-1". I think I was less angry about it then because it was 9 or 10 in the morning, i was drunk and it didn't quite seem real to me. I just continued to drink, ate some noodles and then . . . I think passed out at about noon local time and clean slept through the remainder of the the day. I'm sure I probably watched a ping-pong show or got mugged by transvestites somewhere later, but I can't recall clearly.

I'm gonna go with a handoff or screen pass to Edelman, who then passes to Hernandez (who was single covered by an LB because GRONK still demanded a double even with his boot on)

Edited by baruch20, 31 January 2012 - 10:10 AM.

[bowiac]

If Ocho catches a 55 yard TD pass and the Patriots win by 7, was the acquisition a success?

[bigsid05]

bowiac, on 31 January 2012 - 10:09 AM, said:

If Ocho catches a 55 yard TD pass and the Patriots win by 7, was the acquisition a success?

If Ocho does anything to make this happen (i.e. something an average WR might not be able to do), I would say yes.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

bowiac, on 31 January 2012 - 10:09 AM, said:

If Ocho catches a 55 yard TD pass and the Patriots win by 7, was the acquisition a success?

Is that a serious question. The point is to win championships.

[ShaneTrot]

bowiac, on 31 January 2012 - 10:09 AM, said:

If Ocho catches a 55 yard TD pass and the Patriots win by 7, was the acquisition a success?

Do you consider the 2004 acquisition of Dave Roberts a success?

[bowiac]

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_), on 31 January 2012 - 10:17 AM, said:

Is that a serious question. The point is to win championships.

Kind of. I know the haters on the JD Drew contract (which I never was) justified it because of his grand slam in the ALCS. I'm curious if the same reasoning would apply in an even more extreme "do nothing except the postseason" scenario.

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Maybe I was a little strong. But to me the point of all of this is to win championships. It's not my money, I don't care how they spend it, I just want to watch them win, get drunk and have good times with my friends. If "wasting" 6 million on a WR, helps them accomplish that goal, then to me it was 100% worth it.

[tims4wins]

The Drew situation was different - he was signed for 5 years and $70 million. Plus, it's not like he was a total zero in the regular season - as has been documented ad nauseum, he was basically worth his salary for the first 4 years of his contract (using WAR). The Pats can cut Ocho after this year and not owe much at all. Trading for Ocho didn't prevent the Pats from building as complete a roster as possible.

The Ocho signing didn't turn out as anyone expected, and I'd argue that one good playoff game wouldn't justify the $6M salary.

[ObstructedView]

Two-point conversion situation. Wilfork lines up as a blocking back and takes a direct snap, then lumbers forward for the 2 as Brady does that oops-the-ball-was-snapped-over-my-head act. Hoodie hugs and high-fives on the sideline.

[bowiac]

tims4wins, on 31 January 2012 - 10:23 AM, said:

The Drew situation was different - he was signed for 5 years and $70 million. Plus, it's not like he was a total zero in the regular season - as has been documented ad nauseum, he was basically worth his salary for the first 4 years of his contract (using WAR). The Pats can cut Ocho after this year and not owe much at all. Trading for Ocho didn't prevent the Pats from building as complete a roster as possible.

The Ocho signing didn't turn out as anyone expected, and I'd argue that one good playoff game wouldn't justify the $6M salary.

I agree its different. That's why I posed the question. Drew was a fine aquisition I think, but a lot of people who disagree up through September of 2007 changed their tune in October. Ocho would be like if Drew batted .130 in 200 at bats and then hit that grand slam.

[Mooch]

Nothing too tricky but I'd bet we see an end-around to Edelman.

[Reverend]

28 thunder right.

[collings94]

I think a flea flicker will be the most unusual play. On talent alone, especially on offense, the patriots are more then a match for NY, so BB won't have to reach down into his bag of tricks. A flea flicker or maybe some sort of weird shovel screen will be as unusual as it gets.

[RedOctober3829]

Direct snap to Woodhead on a 2-point conversion play.

[Super Nomario]

Anything slow-developing (flea-flicker, reverse, etc.) seems like a poor choice with New York's athletic defensive line.

I don't know if they trust Cannon enough yet to play him much in this game. I could see a pass to Solder if Vollmer is healthy enough to play.

I voted "direct snap." I think they would do fourth-and-short if it makes sense.

[Otis Foster]

Baruch20 beat me - Edelman connecting with Hernandez deep.

[Lose Remerswaal]

No love for the Fake Spike?

[simplyeric]

Lose Remerswaal, on 31 January 2012 - 12:13 PM, said:

No love for the Fake Spike?

Ah that's what I meant instead of "Fake Kneel". Not sure what I was thinking there. I'll edit.

[Hendu for Kutch]

Question...if Gostkowski were to get injured somehow, who takes over the kicking duties? Zoltan? Or do Welker and Ocho duke it out on the sideline to kick a game-winning FG as time expires?

[simplyeric]

Hendu for Kutch, on 31 January 2012 - 12:43 PM, said:

Question...if Gostkowski were to get injured somehow, who takes over the kicking duties? Zoltan? Or do Welker and Ocho duke it out on the sideline to kick a game-winning FG as time expires?

Edelman drop-kick

[Hendu for Kutch]

simplyeric, on 31 January 2012 - 01:07 PM, said:

Edelman drop-kick

He really is versatile, isn't he?

[E5 Yaz]

As a tribute to Peyton, the old favorite where Brady walks along the line "changing" the play while a quick snap goes to the back for a first down.

Or maybe the Mosi Special pitchback for a bomb

[dynomite]

The flea flicker. The Patriots have used it in the past against overreactive defenses, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it very early in the game if the Giants are playing undisciplined or Brady notices safeties cheating to stop the run.

Here's video of them using it twice, once under McDaniels (2007) and once under BOB (2009). Notice that both times the Patriots are near mid-field, so that potential consequences are limited -- if they fumble the exchange the Giants won't be in field goal range, and if Brady throws a pick it'll be a touchback.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_), on 31 January 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:

A shift that results in Hernandez at RB and Polite lining up at TE. Play action fake to Hernandez and Brady hits throws to an uncovered Polite for a first down. Later they reserve the option to use it again and hand the ball to Hernandez.

I like this -- Hernandez as a runner was a bust against the Ravens, but they continued to use it. That must mean they've practiced it enough to feel comfortable using it again, and knowing the Patriots that also means they've added further wrinkles to it.

Also, I think Solder will play the "Vrabel" role, lining up as an extra TE in a goal line situation and running a route after play-action. Wouldn't be surprised if he catches a TD (especially if Gronk really is somewhat limited by his ankle).

Edited by dynomite, 31 January 2012 - 01:58 PM.

[Stitch01]

Used it in the '05 playoffs too. Flea-flicker got my vote.

[bakahump]

I was going to say Ocho contributes (I think he will) but then saw the Vrabel. Nate Solder with the TD Ladies and Gents.

[MainerInExile]

Otis Foster, on 31 January 2012 - 12:11 PM, said:

Baruch20 beat me - Edelman connecting with Hernandez deep.

Thirded. They set it up last week by handing off to Edelman. They'll do this again at least once out of the 3WR/2TE, setting up a halfback pass later in the game with Edelman as the halfback. Book it.

[Super Nomario]

MainerInExile, on 31 January 2012 - 02:45 PM, said:

Thirded. They set it up last week by handing off to Edelman. They'll do this again at least once out of the 3WR/2TE, setting up a halfback pass later in the game with Edelman as the halfback. Book it.

Edelman is bad enough at throwing that they didn't even let him simulate Tebow's passing when running the scout team offense prior to the Denver games. It would be borderline insane to take the ball out of the hands of Brady so a guy who was a 55% passer in the MAC and hasn't thrown a pass in anger in three years can chuck one blindly downfield.

EDIT: unless it works, then I take it all back

Edited by Super Nomario, 31 January 2012 - 02:53 PM.

[Mystic Merlin]

Fair catch kick.

[simplyeric]

Mystic Merlin, on 31 January 2012 - 02:59 PM, said:

Fair catch kick.

ohhh I was trying to recall how that works...

[soxfan121]

Serious answer - that ridiculous WR screen they ran in week 3 against Buffalo, with Welker behind Gronk/Hernandez/Ocho. This time, sub Solder for Ocho and it creates lots of confusion for the Giants. Having Branch in single coverage on the opposite side is the hot read - the sliding, get-down-Deion play that Brady can throw in his sleep.

I think we see a lot of Hernandez lined up wide, Welker in the slot and then Hernandez motioning to the inside so that the 3 or 4 pass defenders assigned to them have to deal with multiple levels/options on short & intermediate routes that lead to space. I think the Gronk injury means more of that TE slot being used to chip, protect and provide a short option so that Solder can slide in and give you 85% of the needed skills in that role. Lining up Welker/Hernandez/Gronk on the same side of the field creates the potential for overload but should also get the opposite WR a lot of man coverage without deep help.

Finally, run to set up the pass - spread out the Giants with the 2 WR/2TE/1RB set and use BJGE to control the ball and keep the pass rush from being too aggressive. Faulk will play a key role here, too, providing the protection and the delay draw. Let the Giants rush up the field and run past them a few times - that will slow them down and make them play more conservatively.

[Shelterdog]

Screen! Totally overrated play in the modern NFL, not the instant blitz stopper that most football fans think it is given the athletic ability of DLs, something they rarely use, and a brilliant play to use on the first few plays when the giants are hopefully overpursuing and trying to crunch Brady.

[Norm Siebern]

Solder as a modern day Vrabel

[DrewDawg]

Goal line play, Polite in as fullback, takes the hand off from Brady and scores a TD.

I can see an Edelman end-around where he has the option to throw. To Ochocinco!!!

[Darnell's Son]

Nink is gonna do the Vrabel for the first TD of the game.

[Salva135]

Hopefully none of the above, we beat them straight up running our normal offense. Not interested in having to rely on any high-risk, high-reward gadgets in the Super Bowl.