154 replies to this topic

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The Nats managed a .400 BABIP against him and his final line included a 3.03 FIP and a 1.58 xFIP along with his 7.20 ERA. Sprowl is right that he threw too many heaters near the heart of the zone, but there was some bad luck in there as well. That line is ridiculous and can only exist as part of a SSS.

He needs to find better fastball command to keep his heaters on the periphery of the zone. If he can do that and maintain the effectiveness of his breaking pitches that we saw today, he'll be a great asset down the stretch.

If a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its ass all the time... yeah, I know.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Wild in the strike zone = lots of hard-hit balls = DiceK 2012.

You might also say it = DiceK 2007. That first year he had a respectable 2.51 K/BB, but also a 1.1 HR/9. The following year he overcompensated, cutting his HR/9 almost in half and shaving .041 off his BABIP; he led the league in fewest hits per nine innings--but also walked 5 hitters per 9. Ever since then we've been waiting for the both/and Matsuzaka to emerge--the guy who can prevent hard contact without throwing a ton of pitches and giving up a ton of walks.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Actually, there's a pretty decent donut hole in the middle-up zone of Sprowl's chart.

Bad end result today, but encouraging nonetheless.

[czar]

The Nats managed a .400 BABIP against him and his final line included a 3.03 FIP and a 1.58 xFIP along with his 7.20 ERA. Sprowl is right that he threw too many heaters near the heart of the zone, but there was some bad luck in there as well. That line is ridiculous and can only exist as part of a SSS.

Not to mention 66% (4/6) baserunners scored against, him, which is decidedly un-Dice-K like (and well below the generally considered 31ish% league average).

I was pleasantly surprised. He left a couple pitches over the fat part of the plate but showed decent velocity (right around career average, and up 1.5 mph from his injured 2011), had good movement, attacked hitters, and the flashed the ability to get swings and misses (9 in 80 pitchers).

Edited by czar, 10 June 2012 - 08:47 AM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yeah, the swings and misses and the lack of walks are both really encouraging to me. Of course, he's had individual starts like that in the past, so the question will be whether he can maintain the swing and miss stuff while not allowing the walks to creep up to dangerous levels again. His history suggests that he won't, but if his stuff stays as nasty as it looked last night and he can keep the fastball from touching the heart of the plate quite so often, he could certainly pull off a 2008-ish season where he strikes out a bunch of guys while allowing a lot of base runners with walks, but induces a ton of weak contact.

I'm in no way suggesting a sub 3 ERA again, just considering the possibility that he could be effective while walking guys at around his career rate (4.33).