154 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

Hairps killed it.

ScottLauber: Barring no setbacks, Daisuke Matsuzaka will be ready to return to majors closer to June 1 than July 1, according to Valentine

Buster_ESPN: Matsuzaka could be mapped out for a June 1 return, says Bobby Valentine to reporters.

alexspeier: Bobby Valentine said that Daisuke Matsuzaka is tracking to return to big leagues by aroun start of June.

Edited by SoxScout, 22 March 2012 - 02:39 PM.

[trekfan55]

He still can be placed on the 60 day DL then. The Sox may need that space on the 40 man soon.

[EvilEmpire]

What kind of performance are people expecting from Matsuzaka when he comes back in the middle of the season? ERA+ from 2009-2010 was 82 and 93. He walks at least 4 guys a game even when healthy. Given that control seems to come back a bit slow after TJ surgery, what do folks think he is going to do this year?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

What kind of performance are people expecting from Matsuzaka when he comes back in the middle of the season? ERA+ from 2009-2010 was 82 and 93. He walks at least 4 guys a game even when healthy. Given that control seems to come back a bit slow after TJ surgery, what do folks think he is going to do this year?

I'm guessing somewhere around a 90 ERA+ which is a huge improvement over what they got last year.

[Eric Van]

What kind of performance are people expecting from Matsuzaka when he comes back in the middle of the season? ERA+ from 2009-2010 was 82 and 93. He walks at least 4 guys a game even when healthy. Given that control seems to come back a bit slow after TJ surgery, what do folks think he is going to do this year?

Some ERA projections:

4.14 Bill James
4.29 PECOTA
4.37 ZiPS
4.38 FanGraphs fans
4.45 Marcel
4.90 Ron Shandler

The median is not quite as good as his rookie season, but a lot better than 200-2011.

[Rasputin]

The median is not quite as good as his rookie season, but a lot better than 200-2011.

I'd pretty much be ecstatic if we got that for 15-20 starts.

[nvalvo]

What kind of performance are people expecting from Matsuzaka when he comes back in the middle of the season? ERA+ from 2009-2010 was 82 and 93. He walks at least 4 guys a game even when healthy. Given that control seems to come back a bit slow after TJ surgery, what do folks think he is going to do this year?

Here's the history: Following his controversial appearance in the WBC, he was DL'd after his second start in 2009 (a one IP effort in Oakland at which I was present), and again in June, returning in September. In 2010, he again started the season on the DL, and missed a few starts in June. In 2011, he made eight starts in April and May before going under the knife.

My take on this tale of woe is that his performance struggles have been coextensive with his health problems. He's been trying to rehab instead of undergoing surgery, and it's only dragged things out. He hasn't been 100 percent, and he keeps reinjuring himself.

The first two years (ERA+ of 108 and 160) are representative of his talent when healthy — well, maybe the 160 is an outlier. He put up the 80-90 ERA+ figures while injured. If his control is indeed worse after TJ, this might be a wild ride, but he's been effectively wild in the past. We'll see.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The first two years (ERA+ of 108 and 160) are representative of his talent when healthy — well, maybe the 160 is an outlier. He put up the 80-90 ERA+ figures while injured. If his control is indeed worse after TJ, this might be a wild ride, but he's been effectively wild in the past. We'll see.

I think it's more that his control will return last, meaning the 90ish ERA+ he put up while hurt is a reasonable guess as to what he'll do when he first gets back.

[Rough Carrigan]

What kind of performance are people expecting from Matsuzaka when he comes back in the middle of the season? ERA+ from 2009-2010 was 82 and 93. He walks at least 4 guys a game even when healthy. Given that control seems to come back a bit slow after TJ surgery, what do folks think he is going to do this year?

What I'm most curious to find out is how Bobby Valentine will handle him. When the Sox first won his rights, Valentine was asked how thought Matsuzaka would do. His answer was that he'd be pretty good if the Sox would let him pitch the way he wants to, including pitching "backwards" (breaking pitches early in the count), using his full repertoire and pitching as much as possible on his schedule. The Sox did none of these things. None. I'll be very curious to see if we get a different Dice K under Valentine. I'm not saying it will necessarily be that much better of a Dice K but I think it'll be a different one.

[j44thor]

I'm guessing somewhere around a 90 ERA+ which is a huge improvement over what they got last year.

That seems wildly optimistic the year after TJ surgery. I have a hard time seeing him improving over the 83 ERA+ they received from Wakefield last year. Dice K has had control issues since 2008 and as others have pointed out control is typically the last thing to come back.

[EvilEmpire]

Well, whatever challenges Matsuzaka has with his control when he first gets back, I guess I'm in agreement with Sox fans that I'd like to see him work it out while in the rotation

[Sprowl]

Has anybody come across a list of all the pitchers who have had TJ surgery, either currently active or all time? It would be nice to do a more systematic analysis of how they performed in the first few months after they returned to action. There are lots of success stories, along with claims that 10-15% of major league pitchers have undergone TJ surgery, but plenty of those successes have been in later years than the comeback year.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Has anybody come across a list of all the pitchers who have had TJ surgery, either currently active or all time? It would be nice to do a more systematic analysis of how they performed in the first few months after they returned to action. There are lots of success stories, along with claims that 10-15% of major league pitchers have undergone TJ surgery, but plenty of those successes have been in later years than the comeback year.

Do you mean to include minor league pitchers who have the surgery, or only established MLB players?

I would imagine that most pitchers who need TJS before hitting the show would love to even have a career like MDC's.

[Sprowl]

Do you mean to include minor league pitchers who have the surgery, or only established MLB players?

I would imagine that most pitchers who need TJS before hitting the show would love to even have a career like MDC's.

I was thinking of a baseline for comparison that would help us predict Matsuzaka's performance upon returning, so the best comps would be established MLB pitchers with a track record of success prior to surgery.

[mabrowndog]

He faced minor league hitters in a simulated game today:

Dicek: 2 sim inns, 23 pitches, 18 strikes, 5 of 8 1st-pitch strikes, up to 92 mph.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Per the Glob, Sox are considering a June 1 return possible.

Since there's even a slim chance he could be ready before then, a 60-day DL move seems unlikely.

[mabrowndog]

If it comes down to them needing to protect another body on the 40-man, I don't think the Sox will hesitate for a moment to put him on the 60-day DL. That would only delay his earliest activation date by a week or so.

[trekfan55]

If it comes down to them needing to protect another body on the 40-man, I don't think the Sox will hesitate for a moment to put him on the 60-day DL. That would only delay his earliest activation date by a week or so.

June 4th would be his return from the 60 day DL, so unless he has a chance to pitch for the big league club in like early to mid May they can use the spot if they need to.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If it comes down to them needing to protect another body on the 40-man, I don't think the Sox will hesitate for a moment to put him on the 60-day DL. That would only delay his earliest activation date by a week or so.

I think it depends on the likelihood and time-frame of actual MLB service time for the player being protected, as well as whether it looks like Matsuzaka could actually beat that June 4 time-frame...

The possibility of getting 2-3 extra starts from a fresh Matsuzaka pitching like it's September 2009 (6+ IP/GS, 2.22 ERA) -- say if both Bard and Doubront fail horrifically (possible, though I think very unlikely), or if one of the top-three starters goes down again (gods, I hope not) -- could well be more valuable to the Red Sox than the possibility that Tejeda or Pimentel or gets claimed on waivers.

I guess we'll see how they play this.

[JakeRae]

I think it depends on the likelihood and time-frame of actual MLB service time for the player being protected, as well as whether it looks like Matsuzaka could actually beat that June 4 time-frame...

The possibility of getting 2-3 extra starts from a fresh Matsuzaka pitching like it's September 2009 (6+ IP/GS, 2.22 ERA) -- say if both Bard and Doubront fail horrifically (possible, though I think very unlikely), or if one of the top-three starters goes down again (gods, I hope not) -- could well be more valuable to the Red Sox than the possibility that Tejeda or Pimentel or gets claimed on waivers.

I guess we'll see how they play this.

Both Tejeda and Pimental would get claimed on waivers. Also, neither is at the top of the list of guys to get DFA'd. I do not understand why you keep suggesting DFA'ing real prospects. When you were suggesting Exposito, that at least makes some sense as he's no longer a real prospect and if the organization is sold on Lavarnway defensively, he's 4th on the depth chart at his position. Mortensen is still likely at the top of the DFA list but Pimental and Tejeda are nowhere near it.

[lexrageorge]

There are 3 candidates for the 60-day DL: Hill, Kalish, and Dice-K. I personally can't imagine the team releasing real prospects just for the 10% probability of getting an extra start from Matsuzaka. But there's still some flexibility: Kalish is a no-brainer; Hill is supposedly further along than Dice-K, but some of that decision may come down to whether a week of Dice-K is better than 2 weeks of Rich Hill. But right now it's not crystal clear that the team needs to make that trade off just yet; other moves (e.g., DFA'ing Albers) could make this moot.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Both Tejeda and Pimental would get claimed on waivers. Also, neither is at the top of the list of guys to get DFA'd. I do not understand why you keep suggesting DFA'ing real prospects. When you were suggesting Exposito, that at least makes some sense as he's no longer a real prospect and if the organization is sold on Lavarnway defensively, he's 4th on the depth chart at his position. Mortensen is still likely at the top of the DFA list but Pimental and Tejeda are nowhere near it.

I suppose I'm just not as sold on their prospect status as you are. So no, I'm not particularly concerned about whether they're taken by another organization at this point in their development. I see it as this: since both are already on their 2nd option year without having showed any significant mastery above high-A, the Sox would likely have the opportunity to pick up one or both of them in the 2013 Rule 5 draft, or to sign them in 2014 as minor-league free agents, if they really wanted either one back.

Carpenter will now be 60-day DL'ed for his elbow surgery, anyway -- they'll give him a nice, long 8-10 weeks to heal from having those bone spurs removed. So yeah, the point is moot, at least unless they want to add Cook or Padilla as a second move.

[pjr]

http://www.weei.com/...st-rehab-outing

Rob Bradford is reporting Dice K hit 94 on the radar gun in an extended spring training game today.

[Sprowl]

DiceK's velocity in an extended spring training game does not sound nearly as impressive as prior reports.

According to one scout’s radar gun, Matsuzaka’s fastball was routinely in the 86-88 mph range.

[SoxScout]

Monday, Salem, 75 pitches.

per twitter: http://tweetgrid.com...matsuzaka+rehab

Seems like a week+ ahead of June 1 target.

Edited by SoxScout, 20 April 2012 - 11:09 AM.

[Hairps]

Updating the initial post with the latest information from today:

Let’s set those as the optimistic-but-reasonable parameters for Matsuzaka’s return. So, going from Dice-K's 6/10/2011 surgery date...

FIRST MINOR LEAGUE REHAB START:

USING ZIMMERMAN’S REHAB TIMELINE (317 days): April 22, 2012
April 23 - Matsuzaka's first scheduled minor league rehab start
USING VOLQUEZ’S REHAB TIMELINE (324 days): April 29, 2012
USING STRASBURG’S REHAB TIMELINE (338 days): May 13, 2012

MLB RETURN:

May 18 - Matsuzaka's "reasonable target date"
USING VOLQUEZ’S MLB TIMELINE (348 days): May 23, 2012
USING STRASBURG’S MLB TIMELINE (368 days): June 12, 2012
USING ZIMMERMAN’S MLB TIMELINE (372 days): June 16, 2012

http://blogs.provide...in-mid-may.html

Edited by Hairps, 20 April 2012 - 01:18 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

May 18 = 5 rehab starts.

So two starts in Salem to build pitch-count up to 100, three in Pawtucket to hone control, and one more within the rehab window kept in reserve in case of a minor setback?

[Lose Remerswaal]

IIRC, you get 30 days on rehab assignments, which means unless he has a setback, he's kinda gotta be added to the major league roster 30 days from that first minor league outing.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

30 days from April 23 would be May 23. If we assume he takes four off-days between starts, he'd have time for at least six, maybe seven outings (4/23, 4/28, 5/3, 5/8, 5/13, 5/18, 5/23). He'd have to be activated by 5/24 barring set-backs. Would make sense to forego a seventh rehab outing, and start him on 5/23 in Baltimore or at home on 5/25 against Tampa.

With no rainouts, skipping, injuries or a Cook call-up, 5/23 looks like it would be Bard's turn. If Bard's the guy they're pushing out, and Matsuzaka makes his start on the 23rd, that would make him available to the pen as early as the 20th. If Doubront's the odd man, he could make his start on the 22nd, Matsuzaka could start on the 25th and Doubront could be available in the pen no later than the 26th.

Of course, all that could change in the next thirty days for a variety of reasons, but it seems to be how they're setting it up.

[nvalvo]

Brimac offers an update: Matsuzaka threw 4 2/3 IP for the Sea Dogs, allowing one run on three hits, walking two and striking out seven. Sounds like it went pretty well.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Matsuzaka's rehab start per Gameday:

BF 1 -- SS, SS, Foul, Foul, SS
BF 2 -- B, Foul, B, Foul, Popout (3)
BF 3 -- B, B, SS, SS, Foul, Foul-tip

BF 4 -- SC, B, B, Foul, Foul, GO (3U)
BF 5 -- GO (1-3, bunt)
BF 6 -- B, LO (1)

BF 7 -- Foul, B, B, SS, B, Foul, Foul, SS
BF 8 -- B, B, Line Single (shallow RF)
BF 9 -- B, SC, SC, B, Foul, SS
BF10 - Foul, Foul, B CS (2-6)

BF11 - B, Foul, SC, SS
BF12 - B, Line Single (shallow RF)
BF13 - B, B, B, BB
BF14 - GIDP (4-3)

BF15 - SS, Foul, B, B, SS
BF16 - B, B, Line Triple (deep RC)
BF17 - SC, B, SC, SS
BF18 - B, SC, SS, B, B, BB

18 - Batters Faced (74 P, 44 Stk, 4.11 P/PA)
8 - 1st-pitch Strikes (2 SC, 2 SS, 2 Foul, 2 BIP)
12 - Swinging Strikes (6 to finish the punchout)
3 - 0-2 Counts (0 H allowed thereafter)
1 - Extra-base hit (.375 overall BABIP)

Not great, not terrible, totally DiceK. Would prefer more 0-0 strikes thrown....but that's about it.

Not surprisingly, he seemed to tire in the final 1 2/3 innings of work.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

12 swinging strikes in 74 pitches ain't bad at all. Dice-k has bat-missing stuff - kicking myself I didn't go to the game. Screw Little League opening day...

[Tudor Fever]

I sat right behind home plate at Hadlock today, and Dice-K looked excellent. His fastball was at 91 for the most part, which isn't great, but he was changing speeds well and his command and control were excellent. The Phillies were completely overmatched.

The "deep fly ball" to BF 16 should have been a routine out but was lost in the sun. And he absolutely got squeezed on his last pitch, which I thought clearly hit the low outside corner.

[mabrowndog]

Ian Browne

The Red Sox expect Matsuzaka will make three more starts in the Minors before re-joining the Red Sox. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June.

If he's rested 4 days between each, those starts would take place May 3, 8 & 13 with his first start with Boston on May 18 for their series opener in Philly.

FWIW, Portland's home vs Trenton on 5/3 (PawSox in Toledo). Both affiliates are home on 5/8 (POR vs New Hampshire, PAW vs Rochester). And on 5/18 the PawSox are home vs the Clippers (Sea Dogs @ Trenton).

[mabrowndog]

Bangor Daily News article on Daisuke's appearance in Portland. Nothing analytical, since it's a fluff piece on the tradition of rehabbing big leaguers picking up the tab for the postgame spread, but there's an embedded video clip showing several of Matsuzaka's pitches from various angles. There's a sequence from behind the plate at the 1:20 mark where he gets swinging strikes on a fastball followed by an off-speed pitch. Can't really judge much, but he looks like he's throwing really loose with a smooth delivery.

[mabrowndog]

Alex Speier

Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is on a minor league rehab assignment while working his way back from Tommy John surgery, is slated to make his third rehab start on Monday in Pawtucket against Rochester, the Triple-A affiliate of the Twins. The Red Sox had hoped to get a start for Matsuzaka as soon as today against Toledo, but with thunderstorms in the forecast for Toledo, the team was mindful that it might have to shift the locale and possibly the date of Matsuzaka's first start against Triple-A competition.

Matsuzaka has made one start with High-A Salem and another with Double-A Portland, allowing four runs in 8 2/3 innings while striking out 10 and walking two. He was particularly impressive in his start with Portland last Saturday, in which he went 4 2/3 innings while striking out seven and allowing just one earned run before reaching his pitch count.

That'll be 8 days between starts, but I don't care. Great to see they're not rushing him back. I assume they've had him do some throwing at Fenway or indoors in the interim.

It'll also be nice for the PawSox to get the crowd boost rather than the Mud Hens.

[trekfan55]

Alex Speier



That'll be 8 days between starts, but I don't care. Great to see they're not rushing him back. I assume they've had him do some throwing at Fenway or indoors in the interim.

It'll also be nice for the PawSox to get the crowd boost rather than the Mud Hens.

Yet there is a 30 day "clock" so it is in the best interest of the Sox to have him make the most starts possible to make sure he is ready, unless he has an injury related setback of course.

[mabrowndog]

So it wasn't just the weather that delayed his outing...


Evan Drellich @EvanDrellich
Left side of Dice-K's neck bothered him, contributed to push back. Has two starts before rehab clock runs out, next start is Mon. w PawSox

Alex Speier @alexspeier
Valentine said Daisuke's start delayed not just by bad weather in Toledo but also neck issue on left side. Slated for side today, start Mon

Edited by mabrowndog, 04 May 2012 - 04:16 PM.

[barclay]

Matsuzaka, who retired the side in order in the third on Monday, expressed concern about his surgically repaired elbow. "Overall, my body feels good, so that's fine," he said. "But my elbow, some days it feels better than others. Right now I'm just hoping that when I start, [it's on a] day that I'm feeling good.

http://boston.redsox...ws_bos&c_id=bos

Yikes. Maybe the good doctor could tell us whether this is "normal."

[mabrowndog]

Pawsox.com

Daisuke Matsuzaka is tentatively slated to make a rehab start for the PawSox this coming Saturday night when the Pawtucket Red Sox host the Columbus Clippers at 6:05 pm at McCoy Stadium.

[mabrowndog]

JoeyMac

Joe McDonald @ESPNJoeyMac
Dice-K will make two more rehab starts for Pawtucket on May 17 and 22. Rehab expires on 23.

Last night: 5.1 IP, 5 R, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 K, 90 pitches, 54 strikes

SoxProspects

@KPereira15
Dice-K topping out at 91 MPH, take it as you will because I believe McCoy's gun runs high.

@ChrisMellen
Usually +1-2 mph from mine

Maureen Mullen

@MaureenaMullen
BobbyV watched DiceK's start last night: "didn't think he was as good as he should be. His mechanic wasn’t very good at all I didn’t think."

I'm torn between "I'd really like to hear Bobby V elaborate" and "I'd rather hear from someone who knows more about pitching mechanics than Bobby V". Regardless, I hope the press at least tries to get more details out of him.

Edited by mabrowndog, 13 May 2012 - 10:46 AM.

[Harry Hooper]

Bradford on WEEI says 2 more rehab starts for Dice-K, the 17th and 22nd I believe.

[dbn]

Bradford on WEEI says 2 more rehab starts for Dice-K, the 17th and 22nd I believe.

FWIW, the 27th is Clay's turn in the rotation.

[trekfan55]

FWIW, the 27th is Clay's turn in the rotation.

Fits in perfectly, but his rehab expires on the 23rd so they have to make the move then.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Fits in perfectly, but his rehab expires on the 23rd so they have to make the move then.

It would be very easy to DL/option Buchholz after his probable 5/21 start.

[smastroyin]

If Dice-K does not improve I imagine they will call it a "setback"

Every comment they are making seems to set up the idea that the elbow isn't where it should be. Also, let's face it, he is high priced potentially damaged goods. If they have to waive him on the 23rd because he needs more time in the minors, what are the chances, really, that he gets claimed? And furthermore, what are the chances that the Sox would be happy to let someone claim him and pay him?

[normstalls]

The reports don't sound great...Do the Sox have any options if they don't think DiceK is Big League ready by the 23rd?

Also, why is the timeline so quick? You would think they would not have painted themselves into a corner like this (unless of course there are rules/regulations that required it).
He is only about 11 months removed from surgery right?

Edit - looks like Smas answered most of it above.

Edited by normstalls, 14 May 2012 - 12:59 PM.

[trekfan55]

The reports don't sound great...Do the Sox have any options if they don't think DiceK is Big League ready by the 23rd?

Also, why is the timeline so quick? You would think they would not have painted themselves into a corner like this (unless of course there are rules/regulations that required it).
He is only about 11 months removed from surgery right?

Edit - looks like Smas answered most of it above.

Basically at some time he has to start doing rehab work through the minors instead of extended ST. At that point a 30 day clock starts and in this case it ends on May 23rd. If he's not ready it can be easily explained that he has a setback though, IMO. He himself has said that the elbow is not as OK as he would like it to be.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Every comment they are making seems to set up the idea that the elbow isn't where it should be. Also, let's face it, he is high priced potentially damaged goods. If they have to waive him on the 23rd because he needs more time in the minors, what are the chances, really, that he gets claimed? And furthermore, what are the chances that the Sox would be happy to let someone claim him and pay him?

If they were to waive him, wouldn't he ultimately become a FA? My understanding is that per the terms of his contract, he is not allowed to be sent to the minors.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If they were to waive him, wouldn't he ultimately become a FA? My understanding is that per the terms of his contract, he is not allowed to be sent to the minors.

I think you're right that if they DFA him, the only outcomes are someone claiming him, trading him or he becomes a free agent. There's no assigning him to Pawtucket on an optional assignment unless he agrees to it. Even without the clause in his contract, all players with five years of service time or more are granted the ability to refuse a minor league assignment and opt for free agency.

But I can't see it coming to that. If they and he don't feel he's ready, they can simply say he's going back on the shelf for two weeks or whatever the minimum period is, and then he gets another 30 days of rehab. What I believe will actually happen is that he will be activated on the 23rd and given a start on or around the 27th. If he's effective, they'll keep running him out there. If not, back to the DL. But I don't see him returning to the DL without at least one start in the big leagues, unless something dramatic happens in one of his final two rehab starts.