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2012 Red Sox Offense


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#1 ivanvamp


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Posted 24 January 2012 - 08:08 AM

First, let's look at last year's production:

C - Saltalamacchia: 16 hr, 56 rbi, .235/.288/.450/.737, 95 ops+, Sox #5 in AL ops for C
1b - Gonzalez: 27 hr, 117 rbi, .338/.410/.548/.957, 155 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 1b
2b - Pedroia: 21 hr, 91 rbi, .307/.387/.474/.861, 131 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 2b
3b - Youkilis: 17 hr, 80 rbi, .258/.373/.459/.833, 123 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 3b
SS - Scutaro: 7 hr, 54 rbi, .299/.358/.423/.781, 110 ops+, Sox #6 in AL ops for SS
LF - Crawford: 11 hr, 56 rbi, .255/.289/.405/.694, 85 ops+, Sox #5 in AL ops for LF
CF - Ellsbury: 32 hr, 105 rbi, .321/.376/.552/.928, 146 ops+, Sox #1 in AL ops for CF
RF - Drew: 4 hr, 22 rbi, .222/.315/.302/.617, 68 ops+, Sox #13 in AL ops for RF
DH - Ortiz: 29 hr, 96 rbi, .309/.398/.554/.953, 154 ops+, Sox #1 in AL ops for DH

Here is the new lineup, it appears, and last year's stats for those players:


C - Saltalamacchia: 16 hr, 56 rbi, .235/.288/.450/.737, 95 ops+, Sox #5 in AL ops for C
1b - Gonzalez: 27 hr, 117 rbi, .338/.410/.548/.957, 155 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 1b
2b - Pedroia: 21 hr, 91 rbi, .307/.387/.474/.861, 131 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 2b
3b - Youkilis: 17 hr, 80 rbi, .258/.373/.459/.833, 123 ops+, Sox #2 in AL ops for 3b
SS - Aviles: 2 hr, 8 rbi, .317/.340/.436/.775, 107 ops+
LF - Crawford: 11 hr, 56 rbi, .255/.289/.405/.694, 85 ops+, Sox #5 in AL ops for LF
CF - Ellsbury: 32 hr, 105 rbi, .321/.376/.552/.928, 146 ops+, Sox #1 in AL ops for CF
RF - Sweeney (vs RHP): 1 hr, 23 rbi, .286/.365/.377/.743 and Ross (vs LHP): 2 hr, 10 rbi, .234/.336/.362/.698
DH - Ortiz: 29 hr, 96 rbi, .309/.398/.554/.953, 154 ops+, Sox #1 in AL ops for DH

Now, here's what I expect from each position....

C - I think Salty will improve. He hit with sufficient power last year. From June-Sept he hit .242/.292/.480/.772, which would be fine, really, and would be an overall improvement on his .737 ops from last year.

1b - I think Gonzalez is going to have a monster season. He was great last year, but his shoulder seemed to sap some of his power late in the year. I fully expect another .950 ops but with 35+ homers. This should be a slight offensive upgrade.

2b - Pedroia is Pedroia. He's amazing. I think another similar season to last year is what we can expect. Probably won't improve on these numbers, but probably won't slip from them either.

3b - Youkilis....interesting. I think first of all, if they had him for the entire year it would have made a huge difference. Here are his games played the last 6 years: 147, 145, 145, 136, 102, 120. He can't last an entire year injury-free. So it's not reasonable to expect that this year. But I do think he can play 130-140, and I think he will hit much better than he did last year. I expect an offensive improvement from the 3b position this year.

SS - Aviles/Punto. Punto is bad, plain and simple. His 127 ops+ last year was a total abberation (career 76 ops+). Aviles, however, is more interesting. In his four seasons, he's put up an ops+ of 121, 22, 104, and 89 (107 with Boston). So he's a bit of a wild card, but he's shown that he *can* hit. I see this, though, as a downgrade offensively from Scutaro's season last year. Maybe not a huge downgrade, but one nonetheless.

LF - Crawford *has* to improve, right? He can't be much worse. Even so, the Sox had the 5th best ops from the LF position in the AL, which is hard to believe. Unless his wrist hampers him all season, I expect a marked improvement from Crawford. He'll almost certainly never perform up to his contract, but at this point, who cares. Just play better man! I think he'll have a better year, so consider this an upgrade.

CF - Ellsbury had one of the best seasons I've ever seen a CF have. I can't imagine him repeating it. He's proven to be a really good player, but I don't expect to see him put up that stat line again. Consider this a downgrade. A colossal one if he gets injured again.

RF - The Sox were so bad with their RF production last year that almost anything would be a step up. I think a Sweeney/Ross platoon will outperform last year's RF production by a ton. Big improvement here, even without really adding anyone that's very good.

DH - Ortiz hopefully has one more good year left in him. I see this as a slight downgrade, but I do think he'll put up roughly the same numbers.

So overall, I expect this offense to produce at about the same level as last year. Some downgrades (SS, CF, DH), but some upgrades too (C, 3b, LF, RF). And since the Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball last year, I think they'll continue to put a ton of runs on the board.

It's pitching that will make or break this team this year.

#2 Eck'sSneakyCheese


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Posted 24 January 2012 - 08:30 AM

I agree with all but two.

I fully believe that if Ells stays healthy what we saw last year is the player he is, and was supposed to be before all of those injuries. Of course health is the main factor here but barring anything major, this is what we're going to see from him in the future. So, I say it's a wash.

Aviles, IMO, will probably match what Scutaro did last year. I figure a 90/10 or 80/20 split with Punto, giving the majority of the at bats to Aviles. I was impressed with what I saw at the plate last year and believe that he can duplicate what Scutaro did with regular playing time. So, another wash.

All in all that leaves just a slight decline from Tizzle, which is more than likely. I can live with that as long as we can get some consistency and some goddamn hits with runners in scoring position.

I also agree that this season all comes down to pitching and the performances we get from every aspect, starting and bullpen. Our offense is going to be OK.




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