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Source: Cody Ross to Red Sox


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#101 nvalvo


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Posted 26 January 2012 - 06:08 PM

Boston was the only team in the AL to post a winning record with their "top three" IP significantly less than 550. All the playoff teams had ~550 IP or more contributed by their three best starters.


That says a lot about how good the offense was.

#102 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 07:11 PM

That says a lot about how good the offense was.


Exactly -- it's kinda amazing the Sox stayed in the race so long, considering how few innings they got from Clay and DiceK, and how many they got from Lackey.

#103 maufman


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Posted 26 January 2012 - 08:18 PM

It seems to me that either another pitcher will need to step up and replace Beckett, Lester, or Buchholz as one of the top three starters next season, or that the "top three" already under contract will be able to contribute playoff-team quantity (and quality) throughout the season.


Yeah, this is a different thing than I posited.

I don't have data, but from perusing b-ref, most good teams get at least 700 IP from 4 SPs who are at least decent. In many cases, of course, one (or more) of those four wasn't expected to play a vital role before the season began.

If the Sox get 550 good IP from Lester/Beckett/Buchholz, I like their chances to get 150 decent innings from someone else, even if they make no further moves. If not, they'll need multiple things to go right with the current roster, but the addition of a steady hand like Floyd (or Oswalt, if he's reasonably healthy) would make even that seem eminently possible.

#104 OttoC


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Posted 26 January 2012 - 09:32 PM

I recently posted a table showing the number of innings each club in the majors got from their top three starters for 2011 and included the number of starts those pitchers made and the average innings per start.
See http://sonsofsamhorn...ost__p__3932675 to save having to look this up.

#105 kieckeredinthehead

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 10:33 PM

I recently posted a table showing the number of innings each club in the majors got from their top three starters for 2011 and included the number of starts those pitchers made and the average innings per start.
See http://sonsofsamhorn...ost__p__3932675 to save having to look this up.


IP by top three starters only explains about 31% of the variance in win pct. Considering the average team had their top three starters throw 40% of total innings pitched, that's kind of low. Although I guess if pitching is only 50% of winning, that correlation is higher than expected.