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Let's get some god damn revenge: Pats / Giants in the Super Bowl


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#51 bball831

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:38 PM

All the talk about the Giant d line and rightfully so, but the Pats d line has had 2 fantastic games. Looking forward to see what they do in 2 weeks.

#52 ShaneTrot

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:38 PM

Has anyone watched the Pats dline in the playoffs? They have stuffed the run and made life difficult for QBs. Did any sane Giants fan think they would be here? Let's not pretend they are the 86 Bears.

(null)

Edited by ShaneTrot, 22 January 2012 - 11:40 PM.


#53 Super Nomario


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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:42 PM

Giants D-Line > Pats D-Line, but Pats O-Line > Giants O-Line. By a lot. It's not clear to me that there will be more pressure on Brady in two weeks than on Eli.

#54 ObstructedView

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:43 PM

By far the worst matchup and the media coverage is going to be miserable. The storyline is just so eerily similar to 2007 that i have very little confidence after what happened then.

Sure it brings back bad memories, but I would argue that the storyline is quite different:

(1) Pats are not carrying the expectations/burden of an undefeated season.

(2) This time it's the Giants who won the regular-season matchup.

(3) The Giants aren't sneaking up on anyone this time; they've been a fashionable pick and in the spotlight since late in the regular season. (Says something when a team that finished 9-7 and squeaked into the playoffs on the last day of the season is being billed as "the hottest team in the NFL" when they're about to square off against a team that's won 10 straight.)

(4) Lots of different players, of course.

Edited by ObstructedView, 22 January 2012 - 11:47 PM.


#55 bankshot1


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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:43 PM

Pats open as 3-point Superbowl favorite

http://www.sbnation....-line-odds-2012

#56 Van Everyman


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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:47 PM

I think it's a good thing that they are going into this game with something to prove and not as some ridiculous favorite. The next two weeks all we'll be hearing about is the Helmet Catch, the Evans Drop, the Cundiff Shank, the Pourous Secondary, the Gronk Ankle, the Four G-Men of the Apocalypse, Week 10, and above all, the Brady Turd. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if after two weeks of that shit, Vegas has this even or even or the Giants favored.

Bring it, I say.

(null)

#57 RedOctober3829


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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:49 PM

One early observation is that the location of the game will endear itself to a high-scoring game. Playing on turf and in a dome should be prime conditions for both teams to put up a lot of points.

#58 Mugthis

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:54 PM

Today's performances, according to DVOA:

1. Pats, 31%
2. SF, 15%
3. NY, 12%
4. BAL, 10%

#59 H78

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:58 PM

The question when it comes to this game is simple: What did McDaniels learn in 2008 and what adjustment is he going to make in 2012?

#60 Mugthis

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:00 AM

Aaron Schatz
Weighted DVOA going into Super Bowl XLVI: Pats 33.2% (would be 2nd), Giants 14.1% (would be 9th).


#61 Chemistry Schmemistry


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:07 AM

Irrelevant information:

Tom Brady vs. the Giants

Week 6, 2003, W, 17-6, 8-21-112-0-0
Week 17, 2007, W, 38-35, 32-42-356-2-0
SB (2007 Season), L, 14-17, 29-48-266-1-0 (1 fumble)
Week 9, 2011, L, 20-24, 28-49-342-2-2 (1 fumble)

Total, 2-2, 97-160-1076-5-2 (2 fumbles), 6.73 ypa, 60.6%

Hadn't realized that Brady has a "winning" record over every team in the NFL except two. He's 2-2 against the Giants, and 3-6 against the Broncos (1-6 entering this season).

Eli Manning against the Patriots

Week 17, 2007, L, 35-38, 22-32-251-4-1 (1 fumble)
SB (2007 Season), W, 17-14, 19-34-255-2-1 (2 fumbles)
Week 9, 2011, W, 24-20, 20-39-250-2-1

Total, 2-1, 61-105-756-8-3 (3 fumbles), 7.20 ypa, 58.1%

Teams Manning does not have a winning record against: Baltimore (1-1), Cincinnati (1-1), Denver (1-1), Green Bay (2-3), Indianapolis (0-2), Jacksonville (1-1), Minnesota (1-3), New Orleans (1-3), Philadelphia (7-10), Pittsburgh (1-1), San Diego (0-2), Seattle (2-3), Tennessee (0-2), Cleveland (0-1).

#62 Tony C


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:19 AM

All the talk about the Giant d line and rightfully so, but the Pats d line has had 2 fantastic games. Looking forward to see what they do in 2 weeks.


both the Pats O Line and D Line have been superb. Pats really won the Ravens game in the trenches, not at the skill positions.

I think it's a good thing that they are going into this game with something to prove and not as some ridiculous favorite. The next two weeks all we'll be hearing about is the Helmet Catch, the Evans Drop, the Cundiff Shank, the Pourous Secondary, the Gronk Ankle, the Four G-Men of the Apocalypse, Week 10, and above all, the Brady Turd. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if after two weeks of that shit, Vegas has this even or even or the Giants favored.

Bring it, I say.


I do think today's poor game by some of the skill players will be great motivation.

#63 Montana Fan


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:25 AM

13 Giants players were on that 07 team.
7 Pats.


16 veterans of the Giants - Pack game, preceding Super Bowl 42, lined up today.

#64 Kull


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:25 AM

The Pats have played Dolphins, Bills, Jets, and Broncos twice this year, and arguably played a lot better in the second game than the first (aside from the sleepwalking first halves in the last two regular season games). This will be the second time around against a Giants team that only won by 4 back in Week 9. Have they improved? Sure, but so have the Pats. More importantly, BB has shown a knack for better game plans the second time around. The Giants aren't sneaking up on them this time.

#65 SMU_Sox


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:30 AM

You know what worries me here? Our O-line. Solder got beat a lot today and although he only gave up one sack he put a lot of pressure on the right half of the pocket. Mankins is still not 100% from his MCL sprain. Vollmer has practiced for at least the past two weeks, although in a limited capacity, but has not played.
There is no doubt in my mind that if the Patriots O-line consistently wins the battle against the Giants D-line the Patriots will have scored enough points to win.
Another thing that bothers me is how physical the Giants secondary is. Even though SF had mediocre WRs playing and am erratic Smith they had trouble getting separation and were knocked off their routes a lot. Gronk and Hernandez neutralize that aspect of the game a bit but it is still enough of a foreseeable problem to cause concern.
Defensively the Patriots are going to have to play just as physically with the Giants WRs. They'll also probably have to take their chances with mismatches on Manningham as they will need to double cover Nicks and Cruz. Because of this strategy the Pats will likely commit less to stopping the Giants run game. If that is the case then NE's front three are going to be crucial.

This is a difficult game against a very good team. The matchups, especially if health is a big factor, seem to slightly favor the Giants. But this is not mission impossible. If the O-line holds and the secondary doesn't implode they can win this.

#66 BigSoxFan


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:32 AM

Pats should be wearing the home blues, right? This really is the ultimate rematch down to every last detail.

#67 Mystic Merlin


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:36 AM

Pats should be wearing the home blues, right? This really is the ultimate rematch down to every last detail.


Yep.

#68 Phragle


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:37 AM

What do you want to bet Brady has already watched the 2007 SB twice since the Giants win?

#69 triniSox

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:41 AM

On February 5th, we settle all family business

#70 SMU_Sox


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:47 AM

On February 5th, we settle all family business


So we're moving from a Spartan theme to a mafia/The Godfather one? It's not some personal revenge then. It's just business. This could be fun.

#71 soxhop411


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 12:49 AM

The pats D is far better then it was the last time we faced them this season, And our offense is better then we last faced them. So we have a pretty good chance to beat them. Or am i seeing things?

#72 DeJesus Built My Hotrod


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:02 AM

Will Laddie be getting a suite for this game? Will he spin Pitbull at half-time?

These are the important questions that need answering over the next two weeks. We don't need to hear how Eli is staying above Peyton's garage or how Jason Pierre-Paul once used his wing-span to save an Amazon tribe from certain death after their rope bridge snapped.

#73 BucketOBalls


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:09 AM

Eli pretty much has to invite his brother to the game right? Can we get a Peyton cam for the entire game? I'm curious as to weather he would rather watch his biggest rival win or be surpassed by his little brother.

#74 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:10 AM

Will Laddie be getting a suite for this game? Will he spin Pitbull at half-time?

It would have been fate if Pitbull was the halftime show.

#75 Phragle


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:15 AM

Eli pretty much has to invite his brother to the game right? Can we get a Peyton cam for the entire game? I'm curious as to weather he would rather watch his biggest rival win or be surpassed by his little brother.


Peyton built the stadium. He doesn't need an invite.

It would have been fate if Pitbull was the halftime show.


Madonna is a 50/50 shot to die before then so Pitbull is still a shot.

#76 soxhop411


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:16 AM

if you were a betting man/women/child, what would you predict the final score be

#77 abty

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:32 AM

Did anyone watch the one good receiver of the 9ers light up these clowns? SF went into this game with a popgun offense and was in it in the end. The Giants just let their QB get mauled. I am very optimistic.

(null)


If their true center isn't 100%, it might get more exciting for you guys. Not sure what was up with the Davis plays but it was reminiscent of the 1-5 stretch they had when the 'front four' was no more. Not sure if it was due to not being able to get pressure, use full speed or what but it was their one weakness. If you beat the Giants, it's because you get to their secondary.

#78 abty

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:35 AM

The pats D is far better then it was the last time we faced them this season, And our offense is better then we last faced them. So we have a pretty good chance to beat them. Or am i seeing things?


You are not seeing things. What you are not seeing, though, is that the Giants went through the same transformation. This will be one exciting game.

#79 abty

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:36 AM

if you were a betting man/women/child, what would you predict the final score be


31-27 Giants

Giants won't hold Pats to less than 24-27 despite their great front 4 but the Giants will have a field day with the Pats' secondary. Of course, this is under the assumption that Nicks is healthy.

#80 Alternate34

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 01:38 AM

At first glance, the key match-up seems to be the Giants D-Line against the pats O-Line. That is an obvious observation but i think holds true. Brady doesn't necessarily need time at all moments of the game, but he will need it for some longer developing pass plays because the Giants will jam the shit out of Pats receivers and should basically not blitz. The draw game will be key (generally true anyway) to keep the Giants from being too aggressive up front. Of course, the problem is that this Giants D-Line creates disciplined pressure because they are talented, so really, the O-Line has to win its match ups.

Safety discipline will go a long way on defense. Their run game does not inspire fear, but their wide receivers ability to fuck with the secondary does. I don't think the CBs can consistently keep up, but safeties can limit damage and allows for some opportune stops when Wilfork and co get angry.

#81 TomRicardo


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:09 AM

If Eli and Brady have the same sort of days they had today, The Patriots will still win in a landslide. Eli was so awful it made me forget how bad Brady was.

Edit - I say this in full faith there is no way possible Eli will be that bad again.

Edited by TomRicardo, 23 January 2012 - 02:09 AM.


#82 Old Fart Tree


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:15 AM

So many storylines going on here.

This is going to be an insane football game.


MURDER THEM.

#83 bowiac


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:26 AM

If you want to bet the Pats this game, I suspect waiting is a good bet. This line opened at -3, but that's after the pregame betting on the line was at 3.5. Most people I've talked to have said they think the Giants should be favored meanwhile, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of movement in that direction.

I think if Gronkowski is healthy, then the line looks about right to me. The Patriots defense still kinda stinks, and Brady has struggled playing against excellent defensive lines recently, but at the end of the day, I have to believe the Patriots are more likely than not to bat down helmet catch 2, and aren't gonna fumble two kickoffs. Turnovers and takeaways aren't random, but they are subject to a healthy dose of variance. You even them out today a bit, and the Patriots win comfortably, and the Giants don't win at all. That's football, but going forward, some regression there should be expected.

Patriots 29-Giants 26.

#84 E5 Yaz


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:29 AM

Brady is going to need to duplicate his performance against Denver and not his performance against Baltimore or the Jets/2010 or Baltimore/2009 or the Giants/2007 or the Chargers/2007. I think I just threw up in my mouth.


Nah, you threw up in this thread

#85 mikeford


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:33 AM

Eli Manning got HIT 12 times and sacked 6 times (not sure if ESPN counts a sack as a QB hit also) today. And they still won.

That is fairly worrisome to me.

#86 E5 Yaz


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:35 AM

Eli Manning got HIT 12 times and sacked 6 times (not sure if ESPN counts a sack as a QB hit also) today. And they still won.

That is fairly worrisome to me.


If they were facing the 49ers offense again, I could see your point

#87 SemperFidelisSox


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:39 AM

If Eli and Brady have the same sort of days they had today, The Patriots will still win in a landslide. Eli was so awful it made me forget how bad Brady was.

Edit - I say this in full faith there is no way possible Eli will be that bad again.


Manning had a much better performance than Brady today, under much tougher circumstances too. Not turning thte ball over once despite throwing it 58 times and getting knocked around like a pin ball, in the mud and rain no less. SF pass rush was relentless all game.

#88 TomRicardo


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:44 AM

Manning had a much better performance than Brady today, under much tougher circumstances too. Not turning thte ball over once despite throwing it 58 times and getting knocked around like a pin ball, in the mud and rain no less. SF pass rush was relentless all game.


Eli throw no less than four picks where San Francisco ran into each other.

#89 jsinger121


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 05:33 AM

2 things I like better this time around.

1. Brady doesn't have a foot injury severely limiting his mobility in the pocket.
2. I like this OL better now than 2007. The right side of the line is much better now with Waters and Solder than a washed up Neal and a crappy Kazcur.

#90 ivanvamp


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 06:16 AM

The pats D is far better then it was the last time we faced them this season, And our offense is better then we last faced them. So we have a pretty good chance to beat them. Or am i seeing things?


Well sure. But their defense is also playing much better than it was when they last faced the Pats.

Last 4 games leading up to the last NYG-NE matchup, NY gave up a total of 104 pts (26.0/g).
Last 4 games leading up to the NYG-NE Super Bowl, NY gave up a total of 48 pts (12.0/g). *The 2 they gave up vs. Atl was on the offense - a safety. But if you want to include it, fine...50 points allowed then 12.5/g).

So one could argue that their defensive improvement is more than a match for whatever improvements the Pats have made. They are playing tremendous defensive football right now.

#91 Remagellan

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 07:04 AM

Today's performances, according to DVOA: 1. Pats, 31% 2. SF, 15% 3. NY, 12% 4. BAL, 10%


I can't wait to hear the podcast this week with Simmons and Schatz with Schatz dismissing these Giants as the equivalent of the 1985 Pats going up against the 1985 Bears in his smug, begging to be punched in the face voice. Because that worked out so well last time.


The 2007 Giants, the 2008 Cardinals, and the current Giants shit on your stuff Schatz.

#92 loshjott

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 08:18 AM

Seeing the Tyree catch over and over again is one thing. I can deal with that. But you know NBC or ESPN will drag him out from whatever swamp he's been residing in since 2008 and interview him ad nauseum about that play. And with Rodney Harrison an NBC employee, he'll probably have to participate as well.

This I'll definitely skip.

#93 JimBoSox9


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 08:40 AM

I hate the two-week break, but if it gets us a healthy Gronk, it's a goddamn blessing.

(null)

#94 lostjumper

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 08:54 AM

Eli throw no less than four picks where San Francisco ran into each other.


This. Eli threw some really bad balls that should have been easy picks, yet the SF secondary was so keyed up to crush people they blew up their own guy making the interception. Their lack of discipline was very reminiscent of watching Big Bang Clock.

#95 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:01 AM

I have said for a couple of months now that if we got to the SB I'll take my chances against whoever.

I'm taking my chances now. Happily. I could give a fuck about 2007 any more; it's completely irrelevant to the game to be played in 2 weeks.

#96 Mooch

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:11 AM

I love this matchup, especially playing on the turf, under the dome. This will come down to the quick cut skill players and we have more of them than the Giants. I'd look for big games from Welker, Woodhead and Edelman and hopefully Ridley can get out of the doghouse and have two great weeks of practice. I have a feeling we'll need him for this one too.

#97 dcmissle


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:17 AM

I can't wait to hear the podcast this week with Simmons and Schatz with Schatz dismissing these Giants as the equivalent of the 1985 Pats going up against the 1985 Bears in his smug, begging to be punched in the face voice. Because that worked out so well last time.


The 2007 Giants, the 2008 Cardinals, and the current Giants shit on your stuff Schatz.


To be fair, Schatz analyzed Pats/Ravens and nailed it pretty well.

But Football Outsiders whiffed, again, on the Giants:

Although most should know this by now, full disclosure: I'm a 49ers fan. It's not a secret. When I set out to research the matchups in this game -- both in spreadsheets and on film -- I tried my best to be objective. In the aggregate, these teams are pretty evenly matched. However, when splitting things out according to DVOA and game-charting, the 49ers come out with an advantage far more often than the Giants do. Not even mentioned above is that the home-field advantage of the 49ers defense is seventh-biggest in the league this season, and that, if New York jumps out to an early lead, the No. 1 offense when losing big will be trying to comeback against the worst defense in the NFL at protecting a big lead. Really, as I said at the outset, the outcome of this game depends on whether or not you believe the New York Giants from Weeks 16 to 19 are the "true" New York Giants, or whether what appears to be "peaking at the right time" is just the random variation inherent in small samples. If the small-sample Giants show up, this game might be another instant classic in Candlestick. But if the large-sample Giants show up, the consistent-as-the-sunrise 49ers will be the team representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLVI.

Though camouflaged, the disdain for the "hot team" could not be more clear. They seem unable to come to grips that a team in mid-Jan can be vastly different than it was a month earlier, weighted DVOA notwithstanding, so they choke on their numbers. And here's the thing -- there is a quite reasonable explanation for why the Giants are better. The d-line got healthy and made everyone else on that side of the ball better.

The storyline for the Giants bears a striking resemblance to 2007; their defense probably isn't as good, but their offense has far more weapons and Eli is now elite.

I'm hoping that the extra week cools them off. I'm hopeful because the Pats D really has improved, and the o-line was stout yesterday. But Brady will really need to bring his A game.

Edited by dcmissle, 23 January 2012 - 09:19 AM.


#98 RedOctober3829


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:23 AM

Seeing the Tyree catch over and over again is one thing. I can deal with that. But you know NBC or ESPN will drag him out from whatever swamp he's been residing in since 2008 and interview him ad nauseum about that play. And with Rodney Harrison an NBC employee, he'll probably have to participate as well.

This I'll definitely skip.


It's going to be the Giant equivalent of bringing out Bucky Dent to throw out the first pitch.

#99 MannysDestination


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:25 AM

Posted Image


Sterling Moore won't let this happen.

Edited by MannysDestination, 23 January 2012 - 09:25 AM.


#100 SMU_Sox


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 09:28 AM

No, I think FO nailed it perfectly on the SF-NYG game. Most of us were split on whether or not this was a hot team peaking right now or fundamentally better. I was on the side of fundamentally better. Football being a game of small sample sizes I appreciate FO taking that perspective. They hedged their predictions.