196 replies to this topic

[Sprowl]

Now dammit cet, if you want to call Starlin Castro "Sterling," I won't say anything. But man, you can't go screwing around with movie dialogue like this. People get upset.

Yoda says "now matters are worse." And Ben says, "That boy is our last hope."

You got to get the words right. Haven't you seen "Bull Durham"?

Carl is just feeling a little woolly.

(sings)

Oh, we may get woolly
SoSHers do get woolly
because of all the stress.

[BucketOBalls]

You got to get the words right. Haven't you seen "Bull Durham"?

Maybe he saw "Army of Darkness"

[One Red Seat]

Rotoworld quoting Gammons says Oswalt has informed Sox that he is not interested in pitching here. Down to St. Louis & Texas

[SoxScout]

Rotoworld quoting Gammons says Oswalt has informed Sox that he is not interested in pitching here. Down to St. Louis & Texas

Funny, considering he didn't say that, or even mention the Red Sox.

[Kull]

Carl is just feeling a little woolly.

Bully. The pursuit of Oswalt was a sham.

[Lynchie]

Bully. The pursuit of Oswalt was a sham.

Agreed. He also did not want to come here at the trade deadline as I recall.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Oswalt is a "patsy" in all this, you guys are crazy if you think he acted alone. I think most likely it's a very diabolical conspiracy that may involve another pitcher who may or may not have been behind the fence on the grassy mound.

[EddieYost]

Oswalt is a "patsy" in all this, you guys are crazy if you think he acted alone. I think most likely it's a very diabolical conspiracy that may involve another pitcher who may or may not have been behind the fence on the grassy mound.

Well played.

[mabrowndog]

On again? If you believe this thing will be decided like a game of musical chairs, then yes.

Roy Oswalt is without a contract two weeks before the start of spring workouts.

And he is scrambling.

Oswalt is known to prefer a team close to his Mississippi home, but his top choices – the Texas Rangers or St. Louis Cardinals – may not have enough money left in their budgets and/or room in their rotations to sign him.

That has allowed a number of suitors to remain in contact with Oswalt. The Red Sox, Reds and Phillies are among them, according to major-league sources. Because Oswalt is the “last man standing” among the upper-tier pitching free agents, so to speak, new clubs could emerge. That is particularly the case if they believe they can sign him at a discounted rate.

The market for Oswalt is further complicated by the possibility that the Nationals (John Lannan) or Rays (Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis) will trade a starter in the coming weeks or during spring training.

Oswalt and the Red Sox continue to have “mutual interest” in one another, according to one source with knowledge of the dialogue. The Red Sox have an ongoing need for a starting pitcher, and one option (Edwin Jackson) came off the board when he signed with the Washington Nationals several days ago. The Boston rotation includes Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz and open competitions for the final two spots.

More than a week has passed since reporters told us the game was over, and that Oswalt would be a Cardinal once some tiny fine print was ironed out. The Rangers have apparently bowed out of the running, the Nats chose Jackson and would need to deal Lannan, and the Reds & Phils both need to clear payroll.

Not that I believe Oswalt is the single missing piece that would return the Sox to the top of the AL East, but if they do end up signing him, and it's for closer to their $5M offer than the reported $8M St. Louis deal, Cherington rises several notches on my "good impression" scale.

[flymrfreakjar]

Maybe his agent has told him to sit tight until Ortiz arbitration business is settled. If the FO wins, then they may have the money he's looking for (if he truly is interested in pitching for Boston).

[E5 Yaz]

See, I think that's it ... he doesn't want to pitch in Boston (for many of the reasons already stated in this thread). But he may be left with no choice

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

If he really doesn't want to pitch in Boston, and he's really down to accepting something in the 1/$5M range, it's hard to believe that some other team won't decide to jump in. That's a damn good bargain.

[Pumpsie]

At this late point, maybe even the Red Sox don't want a reluctant Oswalt. They've got Bard and Aceves set for the rotation with Dice-K coming back mid-season bymping one of them (probably Aceves) back to the pen. Having Oswalt from the get-go sounds great to us fans but it may complicate things for the roster. If they sign Oswalt, it can't be for huge money and he can't have a no-trade clause because if Dice-K comes back and pitches well, they may have to trade Oswalt then to someone who can afford him and keep one of Bard or Aceves in the rotation.

[bosockboy]

I think he has been asked to hang on until Ortiz is decided...if he would take 1/7 or similar I'd be very frustrated if the Sox pass on that. I think this works out and we get him.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

At this late point, maybe even the Red Sox don't want a reluctant Oswalt. They've got Bard and Aceves set for the rotation with Dice-K coming back mid-season bymping one of them (probably Aceves) back to the pen. Having Oswalt from the get-go sounds great to us fans but it may complicate things for the roster. If they sign Oswalt, it can't be for huge money and he can't have a no-trade clause because if Dice-K comes back and pitches well, they may have to trade Oswalt then to someone who can afford him and keep one of Bard or Aceves in the rotation.

With the deal that Aceves just signed, it appears both he and the team believe his role is yet undefined, hence his bonuses being tied to making X number of starts and/or X number of total appearances. If it were just one or the other, it would indicate a strong preference for one particular role. So if Oswalt is signed, or if one of the mlc lottery tickets (Padilla, Cook, Silva) pans out, Aceves is going to the bullpen with no objections.

Should they then find themselves with six starters once Dice-K is back, I doubt they'd hesitate to push Bard back to the bullpen if need be. Either that, or arrange for someone in the rotation to take a mini-vacation on the DL for a week or two rather than trade away a viable veteran arm in the middle of the season. Unless they could use the opportunity to address a more glaring need, I think the last thing they'd want is to trade Oswalt (or whomever) away to alleviate a roster crunch only to have one of the other starters go down a week later.

Odds are, a solution will present itself when the time comes...the old "things have a way of working themselves out" adage. Regardless, I don't think they necessarily have to base any decision now on what they might have to do once Dice-K is back. If they sign Oswalt, it has to be with the intention of him being in the rotation for the length of his contract.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Should they then find themselves with six starters once Dice-K is back, I doubt they'd hesitate to push Bard back to the bullpen if need be.

More likely, Bard won't be able to throw 200 innings and Daisuke's return will allow them to move him back to the pen where he can finish out the season relatively strong and remain a valuable piece for what, hopefully, will be a playoff bound team.

If Bard throws 100 innings by the time Matsuzaka is ready and no one in the rotation is hurt at that point... first off all, the Sox should be really happy about that, and second, I don't think they'll mind bolstering the pen with Bard for the second half with a hope of him finishing around 140 or so innings. In fact, that might be the ideal scenario. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Oswalt and Bard with Aceves, Melancon and Bailey at the back end of the pen in the first half, then Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Oswalt and Matsuzaka with Aceves, Melancon, Bard and Bailey at the back end of the pen in the second half? Sign me up...

[JMDurron]

With the deal that Aceves just signed, it appears both he and the team believe his role is yet undefined, hence his bonuses being tied to making X number of starts and/or X number of total appearances. If it were just one or the other, it would indicate a strong preference for one particular role. So if Oswalt is signed, or if one of the mlc lottery tickets (Padilla, Cook, Silva) pans out, Aceves is going to the bullpen with no objections.

Depending on the specific language of Aceves' incentives, and Bard's effectiveness as a starter, in the highly unlikely event that the rotation is full when Matsuzaka returns, the team might realize a financial benefit from moving Aceves back to the bullpen before Bard. Switching Aceves from starting to relieving might effectively keep him from breaching many of those contract thesholds, although obviously I'd imagine he might be less than thrilled if that were to happen. I would not think he would have grounds for a grievance if there was no clear difference between his performance as a starter compared to Bard. He would almost certainly object in that scenario, though. Obviously this assumes both Bard and Aceves moving to the rotation to start the season.

[kneemoe]

Depending on the specific language of Aceves' incentives, and Bard's effectiveness as a starter, in the highly unlikely event that the rotation is full when Matsuzaka returns, the team might realize a financial benefit from moving Aceves back to the bullpen before Bard. Switching Aceves from starting to relieving might effectively keep him from breaching many of those contract thesholds, although obviously I'd imagine he might be less than thrilled if that were to happen. I would not think he would have grounds for a grievance if there was no clear difference between his performance as a starter compared to Bard. He would almost certainly object in that scenario, though. Obviously this assumes both Bard and Aceves moving to the rotation to start the season.

I know everyone thinks they're pinching pennys, but we're talking about 100K incentives, I really hope 100K isn't going to determine on the field decisions mid-season.

[Doctor G]

Aceves incentives are based on him staying healthy. The Red Sox want him to achieve his incentives. They are simply hedging their bets a little on the total compensation package.
Why would they risk angering an obviously emotional guy by jerking him around over 100 grand?

Edited by Doctor G, 06 February 2012 - 12:14 PM.

[JMDurron]

I know everyone thinks they're pinching pennys, but we're talking about 100K incentives, I really hope 100K isn't going to determine on the field decisions mid-season.

For some reason I thought it was 100k per incentive, not 100k in incentives. Obviously that's not worth even thinking about it for 100k total.

[Doctor G]

For some reason I thought it was 100k per incentive, not 100k in incentives. Obviously that's not worth even thinking about it for 100k total.

according to Cots he has a scale 0f 25G incentives for each role. 25g for 5, 10, 15, and 20 starts, as well as 25G for55,60,65, and 70 appearances. so it looks like they are committing to at least 5 starts as a trial period which should leave him the opportunity to pick up the other incentives if he is moved to the pen.

Edited by Doctor G, 06 February 2012 - 12:38 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

according to Cots he has a scale 0f 25G incentives for each role. 25g for 5, 10, 15, and 20 starts, as well as 25G for55,60,65, and 70 appearances. so it looks like they are committing to at least 5 starts as a trial period which should leave him the opportunity to pick up the other incentives if he is moved to the pen.

Not really, as 0-5 starts with no bonus means Aceves can be called upon to make the occasional spot-start without additional financial commitment.

Nothing in Aceves' contract changes my suspicion that, unless Oswalt is willing to sign for cheap, the Sox will have Bard and one of Padilla/Cook/Silva as their #4 and #5 starters. The incentives seem to be structured such that if Bard flames out immediately, or not at all, there's equivalent incentive for Aceves to stay motivated and accept his role on the pitching staff.

[JakeRae]

I would think that if the organization uses Aceves for, say, 9 starts and converts him to the pen where he makes 45 appearances, they would pay the $75,000 in incentives that Aceves failed to achieve. There is real value in maintaining good relationships with your players and in showing that you value the spirit of the deals you reach even when the lettering of those deals would allow you to violate the spirit of them.

In this case, if Aceves is healthy and pitching all season, the team should pay him his $100,000 no matter what his usage is and what that obligates them to pay.

[SoxScout]

Mozeliak said this morning that he did not see any more significant moves before the team opens spring training in Jupiter, Fla., on Feb. 18 when pitchers and catchers report.

The team had been engaged in discussions with starting pitcher and free agent Roy Oswalt. While there was mutual interest, the Cardinals and the righthander could not reach a deal that was mutually beneficial. The Cardinals do not have an opening in their rotation and are looking to maintain the current payroll; Oswalt was seeking a larger guarantee in role and salary.

http://www.stltoday....l#ixzz1lfAthSZS

[rembrat]

Chances he sits and waits around for a few months? Dude must really not want to pitch in Boston.

[Rasputin]

Chances he sits and waits around for a few months? Dude must really not want to pitch in Boston.

If you were going to sign a one year contract with the hopes of maximizing your free agent value at the end of it wouldn't the AL East be the last place you'd go? I would take significantly less money from an NL Central team than an AL East team.

[OttoC]

If you were going to sign a one year contract with the hopes of maximizing your free agent value at the end of it wouldn't the AL East be the last place you'd go? I would take significantly less money from an NL Central team than an AL East team.

If he did well in the AL East, couldn't that help in maximizing value?

[Rasputin]

If he did well in the AL East, couldn't that help in maximizing value?

Compared to him doing better elsewhere? It's certainly possible but I don't think that thinking otherwise is unreasonable.

Also consider likelihood of making the postseason. Postseason games are inordinately effective in getting you good pub. No matter which AL East team you sign with there are at least two other teams with a reasonable chance of being better than the one you pick.

[Kid T]

If he did well in the AL East, couldn't that help in maximizing value?

I'm not sure he wants to pitch for more than another year or two. Maximizing his value might take a back seat to postseason success.


On a separate note, any thoughts on Homer Bailey as a low-cost acquisition? Sounds like the Reds are kicking the tires on Oswalt now and need to move some salary from their rotation to fit him in. It's been speculated that Bailey is the only option they are willing to move (I believe his salary is $2.75 mil)

[SoxScout]

On a separate note, any thoughts on Homer Bailey as a low-cost acquisition? Sounds like the Reds are kicking the tires on Oswalt now and need to move some salary from their rotation to fit him in. It's been speculated that Bailey is the only option they are willing to move (I believe his salary is $2.75 mil)

I don't know if this is true or not, but this seems ridiculous. I'd be all over him.

He has increased his SwStr% the last 3 seasons, his xFIP- has been 6 and 2 percent better than average the last 2 years, and his control is getting better each season with a sweet 3.2 K/BB last year.

Under $3M and control him through 2014. What's the cost if they are sour on him?

Edited by SoxScout, 07 February 2012 - 01:33 AM.

[The Boomer]

I don't know if this is true or not, but this seems ridiculous. I'd be all over him.

He has increased his SwStr% the last 3 seasons, his xFIP- has been 6 and 2 percent better than average the last 2 years, and his control is getting better each season with a sweet 3.2 K/BB last year.

Under $3M and control him through 2014. What's the cost if they are sour on him?

One trend that is discernible in the few moves this offseason is a noticeable attempt to jettison (or avoid) aging and declining players and adding more cost effective and younger replacements. Both the Cardinals and Reds need to shed payroll to pick up Oswalt and both have cost effective post-hype (former prospect) younger pitchers with disappointing ML performance: Bailey with the Reds and Kyle McClellan with the Cardinals. Both teams could use some 1B depth with stars (Votto and Pujols) soon to leave possibly or already gone (Yonder Alonso included). Lars Anderson makes sense as part of a package (to include better surplus players or prospects to make a deal work) to either team. Cherington's patience will really be worthwhile if he can acquire an under control younger pitcher (for either SP or RP depth) within his budget (at a salary less than the $4.5 million that comparably flawed starters like Bedard and Maholm got elsewhere). This actually makes more sense than the higher cost 1 year rentals for Oswalt or (already signed) Jackson and Kuroda. If the Sox have a way to add pitchers like this to their depth chart, they will be much better acquisitions in the long run.

Edited by The Boomer, 07 February 2012 - 08:31 AM.

[glennhoffmania]

If you were going to sign a one year contract with the hopes of maximizing your free agent value at the end of it wouldn't the AL East be the last place you'd go? I would take significantly less money from an NL Central team than an AL East team.

Do players really think that GMs don't take the divisional adjustments into account when they're evaluating players? If they see someone doing well in the NL West, they'll just throw money at them? I think this variable is overblown in the context of these discussions.

[EvilEmpire]

I'm sure a transition to the the AL East is a big part of his reluctance to sign with Boston, but it may not be the only thing. The amount of scrutiny he will get in Boston if things don't work out well will be really high and he may not want to put up with that BS. Adjusting to a new league, a tough division, high prospects for drama, and to do all that for a discount (compared to what he thinks he is worth) just may not be all that appealing. He may not have a better option and it could still happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him remain unsigned for a while to see what happens in spring training.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm sure a transition to the the AL East is a big part of his reluctance to sign with Boston, but it may not be the only thing. The amount of scrutiny he will get in Boston if things don't work out well will be really high and he may not want to put up with that BS. Adjusting to a new league, a tough division, high prospects for drama, and to do all that for a discount (compared to what he thinks he is worth) just may not be all that appealing. He may not have a better option and it could still happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him remain unsigned for a while to see what happens in spring training.

These issues make sense. If he doesn't want to live in Boston, get adjusted to a new league, etc., that's totally legit. I just find it hard to believe that if those weren't issues he'd be hesitant because he'd be worried about putting up lesser numbers against clearly superior competition, as if no one else would understand the reasons behind the lesser numbers.

[86spike]

These issues make sense. If he doesn't want to live in Boston, get adjusted to a new league, etc., that's totally legit. I just find it hard to believe that if those weren't issues he'd be hesitant because he'd be worried about putting up lesser numbers against clearly superior competition, as if no one else would understand the reasons behind the lesser numbers.

I bet that's not the scenario he cares about. It's not Great year in the NL Central vs. Mediocre Year in the AL East that screws with his earning power. It's Decent Year in the NL Central vs. Get Your Head Kicked In in the Al East that likely gives him serious pause.

The worst case scenario for a guy like Oswalt is that he has a shitty year in 2012. A mediocre year isn't a nightmare. He can still get paid after that. But having a truly shitty season will turn him into a guy begging for a starting job.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If there's a pitcher out there who doesn't want to join the Sox because he's afraid of pitching in the AL East, than I wouldn't want him anyways.

[Corsi]

If there's a pitcher out there who doesn't want to join the Sox because he's afraid of pitching in the AL East, than I wouldn't want him anyways.

He may not have a choice.

Update at 1:23: I just talked to Walt Jocketty. He insists that the Reds have had no recent talks to with Oswalt.

““It’s all rumors,” he said. “I’m sick and tired of it. We’ve had no serious talks. We’ve had no contact with the player.”

http://cincinnati.co...ughts-on-roy-o/

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I think it's pretty silly to think that Oswalt is pouring over the stats, to find out which team has the most inferior offensive competition. More likely he has a couple teams he wants to go to because of proximity to home, and other than that he is looking at who pays him the most money. Secondary things like, who has the best endorsement chances, where will my family be comfortable, what city has the highest percentage of high quality on the side trim, best chance to win a championship etc. etc. all come before... things like if he'll fail there.

Batters he'll be facing is what he may decide to look at after he signs somewhere.

Guys like Oswalt think they are the king shit, they don't even entertain the possibility that there could be a place where they might "get their head kicked in."
I highly doubt that it's entering his mind.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 07 February 2012 - 01:55 PM.

[mauidano]

If there's a pitcher out there who doesn't want to join the Sox because he's afraid of pitching in the AL East, than I wouldn't want him anyways.

Simple as that.

[E5 Yaz]

I think it's pretty silly to think that Oswalt is pouring over the stats, to find out which team has the most inferior offensive competition.

If you don't think he already realizes (w/o pouring over stats) that a) switching leagues at a time when his stuff is fading and b) the AL East has three solid offensive teams beyond the Red Sox, than there's no way we can help you

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If you don't think he already realizes (w/o pouring over stats) that a) switching leagues at a time when his stuff is fading and b) the AL East has three solid offensive teams beyond the Red Sox, than there's no way we can help you

You think Roy Oswalt is saying or even thinking "Gee my stuff is fading, I better stay away from having to face the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays" if you think that then you really don't no much about the ego's of professional atheletes.

Now maybe his agent has put together a couple spreadsheets of where his numbers might be best, but I doubt that is high on his lists of priorities.

Lets look at the facts, he has flat out refused to even entertain the thought of going to Detroit or Pittsburgh, yet has "mutual interest in the sox." I think it has more to do with the fact that he doesn't want to live in Detroit and Pittsburgh offers no chance to win, then where his fading stuff will be less likely to be pounded.

[koufax32]

If he's reluctant to come to Boston it could simply be a matter of not wanting to join the rolling tard party that was the 2011 Red Sox. You add that to the media scrutiny, etc. and I could easily see a potential aversion to Boston.

It sounds like his agent is trying to drive up someone's offer.

[Corsi]

The Red Sox still appear to be in the running for free-agent righty Roy Oswalt. According to one major league source, the issue is no longer money, but geography. Oswalt evidently prefers the Midwest (St. Louis) or South (Texas) but if those scenarios don't work out the Red Sox would be an alternative. There are some back issues with Oswalt, but none severe enough to scare the Red Sox away.

http://www.boston.co...d_notes_24.html

[Harry Hooper]

You think Roy Oswalt is saying or even thinking "Gee my stuff is fading, I better stay away from having to face the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays" if you think that then you really don't no much about the ego's of professional atheletes.

Maybe, but we have G38's experience where he clearly was concerned about pitching in Fenway when Theo first approached him about waiving his no-trade.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Maybe, but we have G38's experience where he clearly was concerned about pitching in Fenway when Theo first approached him about waiving his no-trade.

So he didn't end up pitching for Boston??

Schilling is also a special case.... No one kept books like Schilling, he broke things down and prepared differently than 90% of the pitchers out there.

My point was out of Oswalt's top priorities, exploding numbers because of a fading fastball seem pretty far down the list. I think thats been proven in just about every report about what teams he's interested in.

[Clears Cleaver]

Stark tweeted phillies are trying to trade Blanton to free up $$ for Oswalt but quotes Amaro as saying not likely.

[Corsi]

Here's Jayson Stark's take:

"He wanted to go to Texas. That's not gonna happen. He wanted to go back to Philadelphia. That's not gonna happen. He had some interest in the Reds. That doesn't seem like it's going to happen. So his choices still come down to, I think, going to Boston, where they have a clear need but he doesn't seem to want to play, and going to St. Louis, where all his friends say he would love to be. But to do that, he has to do it on their terms."

http://espn.go.com/b...ot-gonna-happen

[Al Zarilla]

Picky sonofabitch, isn't he?

[Sausage in Section 17]

Seriously.

I'd happily live in a cardboard box under the subway tracks at Yankee Stadium to get $5M in six months.

[mabrowndog]

Need Schmeed. I want this guy in a Red Sox uniform less and less with each passing minute.