196 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

@jonmorosi

#RedSox, after trading Marco Scutaro, have intensified pursuit of free agent Roy Oswalt.

@jcrasnick

#RedSox to make an "aggressive bid'' for Roy Oswalt, said a baseball source

Season	Team	Age	IP		ERA	WHIP		FIP	xFIP		GB%	SwStr%		HR/9	K/9	BB/9	K/BB
2009	Astros	31	181.1		4.12	1.24		3.76	3.82		43%	9%		0.9	6.9	2.1	3.3
2010	2 Teams	32	211.2		2.76	1.03		3.27	3.31		46%	10%		0.8	8.2	2.3	3.5
2011	Phillies	33	139.0		3.69	1.34		3.44	3.95		45%	8%		0.7	6.0	2.1	2.8

Edited by SoxScout, 23 February 2012 - 06:37 PM.

[SoxScout]

Roy Oswalt, Potential Steal

There seem to be a few factors conspiring to drive down Oswalt’s pricetag, but all of them are related to questions about his health. Last year, he was limited to just 139 innings due to lingering back problems that landed him on the disabled list a couple of times. He also saw his average fastball velocity decline from 92.6 MPH to 91.4 MPH, and saw his strikeout rate drop from 23.1% to 15.7%. These kinds of declines are often evidence of health problems and cause for concern going forward.

His diminished velocity corresponds directly to his two stints on the disabled list, and it’s pretty obvious that they are directly related. Now, however, notice the massive upward spike at the end of the season, after he returned from his second break of the season. During September, his average fastball returned to his previous career norms, even topping 95 in his final start of the regular season – something he hadn’t done since the middle of the 2010 season. As the stuff came back, so did the results.

[templeUsox]

Clubhouse Confidential put Oswalt through "The Shredder" last week:

http://mlb.mlb.com/v...py_20058005&v=3

Edited by templeUsox, 21 January 2012 - 08:15 PM.

[NorthernSoxFan]

So if he lands on the DL here he should fit right in! At the right price, I think he is well worth rolling the dice.

[Soxfan in Fla]

I like Oswalt better than Floyd only because he wont cost prospects.

[Beomoose]

Based on his mechanics and frame, how deep into his 30s would one expect Roy to stay at a high level?

[Rasputin]

Based on his mechanics and frame, how deep into his 30s would one expect Roy to stay at a high level?

I am of the assumption that we're signing him for one year or, at most, two so I don't really care. All he has to do is combine with Buchholz, Bard, Matsuzaka, and the spot starters for 550-600 innings of marginal competence and he's a big help.

[rembrat]

Oswalt turned down the Tigers offer.

"DKnobler: On Oswalt, I hear the Tigers were very interested (even had Verlander call him), but he didn't want to go to Detroit. May land in Boston."

http://twitter.com/D...500014957445121

[Rough Carrigan]

The Sox almost landed him in a deadline trade somewhere around 2006 or 2008 so Oswalt's probably considered the notion of playing in Boston before.

[Foulkey Reese]

I kind of assumed they had something in the bag when they traded Scutaro. They would look pretty bad if they weren't able to land Oswalt, assuming he's their guy, after they more or less gave away their starting SS.

[Kull]

I'm still having a hard time following this. Looking at what the Sox got back from Colorado, there's zero doubt that Scutaro was traded as a salary dump. But if the Tigers were interested in Oswalt (presumably at his new number of $8M), then the Sox won't be getting him any cheaper. So the exchange of Oswalt for Scuataro still leaves the Sox with a $2M increase to the cap, and by all accounts they were already at or over the limit. So why get rid of Scutaro and create a new hole in the line-up if it has no impact on getting the team under the limit?

[maufman]

I'm still having a hard time following this. Looking at what the Sox got back from Colorado, there's zero doubt that Scutaro was traded as a salary dump. But if the Tigers were interested in Oswalt (presumably at his new number of $8M), then the Sox won't be getting him any cheaper. So the exchange of Oswalt for Scuataro still leaves the Sox with a $2M increase to the cap, and by all accounts they were already at or over the limit. So why get rid of Scutaro and create a new hole in the line-up if it has no impact on getting the team under the limit?

What assumption is being used for Papi in these calculations? There's a $2mm margin of error on that data point alone. I don't think we have enough data to estimate the Sox' payroll for luxury tax purposes within 1% or so.

Also, if the Sox were willing to offer, say, Oswalt 1/7 with a player option for $5mm (similar to the Beltre deal), that might be more attractive to Oswalt than a straight 1/8 from the Tigers. I'm not sure that's such a great idea, but if staying below the luxury tax threshold in 2012 is paramount, there may be creative ways to skin that particular cat.

[rembrat]

I'm still having a hard time following this. Looking at what the Sox got back from Colorado, there's zero doubt that Scutaro was traded as a salary dump. But if the Tigers were interested in Oswalt (presumably at his new number of $8M), then the Sox won't be getting him any cheaper. So the exchange of Oswalt for Scuataro still leaves the Sox with a $2M increase to the cap, and by all accounts they were already at or over the limit. So why get rid of Scutaro and create a new hole in the line-up if it has no impact on getting the team under the limit?

"alexspeier: Making sense of the Marco Scutaro trade: Turns out there we didn't know some things, including... #redsox #rockies http://t.co/15DvqqWJ"

http://twitter.com/a...448800022560770

"alexspeier: ...that Scutaro costs $7.67M in CBT payroll in '12 (Oswalt $?) and #rockies were only team willing to pay entire salary http://t.co/15DvqqWJ"

http://twitter.com/a...449372939333632

[Pumpsie]

I'd like Oswalt but my gut feeling is that he's going to end up with the Cardinals when all is said and done. I hope I'm wrong.

[rembrat]

The thing that is puzzling is that this is ass backwards. You sign the FA then make room for him not the other way around.

I think the Sox cleared Scutaro's money for the sake of clearing space and if they land Oswalt it'll be because he fell into their laps. Why trade Scutaro if there is no guarantee Oswalt signs? Who operates like that?

[EddieYost]

The thing that is puzzling is that this is ass backwards. You sign the FA then make room for him not the other way around.

I think the Sox cleared Scutaro's money for the sake of clearing space and if they land Oswalt it'll be because he fell into their laps. Why trade Scutaro if there is no guarantee Oswalt signs? Who operates like that?

Yeah, this makes sense. It should be "Hey Rockies do you want Scutaro and his contract for free? We are close to signing someone, but if we do we need to shed some payroll."

[TedsColdHead]

I'd like Oswalt but my gut feeling is that he's going to end up with the Cardinals when all is said and done. I hope I'm wrong.

The thing that is puzzling is that this is ass backwards. You sign the FA then make room for him not the other way around.

I think the Sox cleared Scutaro's money for the sake of clearing space and if they land Oswalt it'll be because he fell into their laps. Why trade Scutaro if there is no guarantee Oswalt signs? Who operates like that?

I agree with both of these thoughts. Per Brian Macpherson at Projo (http://blogs.provide...-threshold.html) this puts them under the cap by about 4.5m. I just have this gut feeling that this is where they want to be going into spring training. Then leaving themselves the ability to add pieces when the need arises during the season. I'm not happy about this approach.

edit: left out the NOT

Edited by TedsColdHead, 23 January 2012 - 03:05 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I would be shocked if Oswalt would sign for less than $8MM without any sort of performance bonuses that would bump the Sox over the tax cap, but I could see Ben hooking him with a Beltre-like players option year that lowered the AAV while paying him north of that figure.

[edited out duplicated salary data]

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 23 January 2012 - 03:17 PM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If Speier is correct in his calculations it also points to why Cherington made signing Punto one of his first priorities. Regardless of who plays SS it will be essential to have a solid defender either on the bench or available to start if necessary.

I'd like to see what Aviles can do as an everyday player. Maybe he gets exposed as the utility player he has been, or maybe we catch a little zap in a bottle and its a Scutaro Toronto 2.0

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If the quoted figure in the projo blog 173 mil is correct the sox have around six million remaining before hitting the limit.

I have to wonder if a trade for Gavin Floyd taht includes Iglesias might be in the works. That would not only take in a pitcher who eats innings effectively it clears Iglesias's major league contract off the books as well. That would leave a little bit of wiggle room for a trade deadline deal...

It's really a shame that we can't just trim some of the fat.... And by "the fat" I mean Bobby Jenks and his useless 6million dollar tax hit. Lackey and Crawford are unmoveable, Daisuke is rehabbing and unmoveable as well, but Jenks is just useless.

[curly2]

Somebody mentioned in the Compensation for Theo thread that the comp should be the Cubs taking Jenks. I think this would be a perfect solution. Theo, with limited prospects, would probably be OK with it, and if Jenks does come back to pitch well, he could flip him in July.

[JakeRae]

Somebody mentioned in the Compensation for Theo thread that the comp should be the Cubs taking Jenks. I think this would be a perfect solution. Theo, with limited prospects, would probably be OK with it, and if Jenks does come back to pitch well, he could flip him in July.

I'm increasingly on board with this idea. It was reported at one point that the Cubs always thought "significant compensation" should've been accomplished in terms of money. Dumping Jenks frees up the cash to sign Oswalt and stay under the tax threshold and would be a reasonably satisfactory conclusion to this whole saga. (I'd rather get a PTBNL thrown in with Jenks to cover the possibility that he comes back healthy and has real value this year but I'd accept the deal without the PTBNL.)

[SoxScout]

Oswalt camp calling the Reds trying to get an offer

“They’ve called us,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “I don’t think it’s something we’d able to do. We’re pretty tapped out (as far as payroll).”

Jocketty said the same thing about Ryan Madson a week ago before the Reds signed him.

“The difference there is we had money allocated for (Francisco) Cordero,” Jocketty said. “We’d have to be very creative to bring (Oswalt) in. We’d probably have to move payroll.”

[RedOctober3829]

*One thing about the Red Sox and Oswalt: There is no guarantee that he wants to play in Boston. Oswalt is said to be picky about where he wants to pitch.

http://msn.foxsports...uestions-012312

[rembrat]

Well he is running out of places to play. Add the M's to the list of teams that aren't in on him as they signed Kevin Millwood yesterday to round out their rotation.

It seems like Ben's strategy is to just run time off the clock and knock a few $M off Oswalt's price tag. Incredibly risky but imagine if he landed him for something stupid cheap like 1/$6MM and some IP bonuses?

[mr_smith02]

FWIW...Peter Gammons' tweeted this about an hour ago:

@pgammoPeter Gammons

We shall see, but 2 GMs think Oswalt wants to reuinite w/ Ryan and M. Maddux in Texas, 1 says St. Louis.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If Oswalt wanted to come to Boston I think he would have been here by now. As soon as the Scutaro deal was done , I'm sure Oswalt was approached by the sox.

How about going at this from another direction? having Aceves as the #5 is a problem because it leaves the bullpen cover pretty bare, but what if the sox made a trade for Koji Uehara (sp.) to fill Aceves Bullpen role. That would allow Aceves and Bard to join the rotation.

[geoduck no quahog]

FWIW...Peter Gammons' tweeted this about an hour ago:

@pgammoPeter Gammons

We shall see, but 2 GMs think Oswalt wants to reuinite w/ Ryan and M. Maddux in Texas, 1 says St. Louis.

Who cares what he "wants". I'm more interested in what Texas wants.

[PedroKsBambino]

The thing that is puzzling is that this is ass backwards. You sign the FA then make room for him not the other way around.

I think the Sox cleared Scutaro's money for the sake of clearing space and if they land Oswalt it'll be because he fell into their laps. Why trade Scutaro if there is no guarantee Oswalt signs? Who operates like that?

I think teams do this all the time, actually. You can't control when the opportunities present themselves---if this was when Colorado wanted Scutaro, and there was reason to think they would go a different way if you didn't make it happen (quite reasonable this time of the baseball offseason), and you think Scutaro is not significantly differentiated, you make the deal.

We like things to be really linear, but the reality is that this team doesn't have a meaningful game for 2+ months, so the lack of an obvious starting SS is a lot more worrisome to fans than it is to the FO, I bet.

[Corsi]

#redsox made offer to oswalt but are unsure hed go since hes yet to accept. he rejected det. may prefer cinc, tex, stl

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/162254799373484032

[SoxScout]

The Sox, sources say, have made a significant offer to the free-agent right-hander. Oswalt has yet to accept, raising some doubt about his interest in going to Boston.

Oswalt already told the Tigers he wasn't interested in going to Detroit, sources said, and even a recruiting phone call from Justin Verlander didn't sway him. While he may not have given the Red Sox as definite a "no," it is thought that he would prefer teams closer to his home state of Mississippi.

The Red Sox would like to add another starting pitcher before spring training, but the options right now seem to be limited. Edwin Jackson is the only other significant free-agent starter on the market. The Red Sox have also talked to the White Sox about Gavin Floyd, but were turned off by the asking price and it seems that a deal for him is unlikely.

http://danny-knobler...590096/34570116

[Corsi]

I guess I remain hopeful that we could still sign him, considering he dismissed the Detroit offer out of hand. He's probably shopping our offer around now and if no one bites, he'll accept.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

what is the finacial and starter (spots in rotation) situation of the other interested teams, St. Louis, Cincy, Tex etc. I'd think Detroit would be closer than tex, if his main interest is supposed to be close to Miss.

Cincy's : signing of Madson may keep them from making an offer

Tex : spent big on Yu Darvish , but also lost CJ Wilson so they may have a spot depending on if Feliz ends up in the rotation or not. I'm sure they still have enough money to hand Oswalt.

St. Louis: Should have the money missing out on Pujols and seems like a great fit for Oswalt behind Carpenter and Wainright, but do they have the interest. I would have thought it'd be a done deal if they wanted him.

[kazuneko]

How about going at this from another direction? having Aceves as the #5 is a problem because it leaves the bullpen cover pretty bare, but what if the sox made a trade for Koji Uehara (sp.) to fill Aceves Bullpen role. That would allow Aceves and Bard to join the rotation.

This would be an interesting way to go, especially as it doesn't seem likely that Uehara will require a huge outlay of talent to acquire. Uehara was mediocre towards the end of the season and had a bad post-season, but the sample size was tiny. This may have left him an undervalued commodity.
And the man has talent. A former superstar in Japan, as a younger player Uehara once struck out Barry Bonds three times in a game. His stuff is still good, and its not even clear that he needs to stay in the pen. He has a careeer 3.18 ERA and a .98 WHIP - and before the trade to Texas last season he was in the midst of his finest season. In 2011 he had 85 strike outs in 65 innings, putting up a WHIP of .72.
With Uehara in the pen Aceves could comfortably be moved to the rotation. And if Aceves struggled as a starter, you might even consider switching their roles by giving Uehara a shot at the rotation.He spent his career as a starter in Japan and performed well enough in that role (4.05 ERA) the only season (2009) he was given a shot of starting in the States..
If Oswalt doesn't want to play in Boston, and Floyd is gonna require too much in a trade Uehara wouldn't be a bad third option..

Edited by kazuneko, 25 January 2012 - 08:53 PM.

[SoxScout]

Rosenthal confirms Gammons saying Oswalt want Texas or STL: http://msn.foxsports...s-market-012512

[The Boomer]

Rosenthal confirms Gammons saying Oswalt want Texas or STL: http://msn.foxsports...s-market-012512

I don't believe that the luxury tax issue is a negotiating ploy but all of these leaks definitely are. Oswalt has multiple suitors to get Boston to pay more? They prefer Jackson to bid Oswalt down? Standing pat is a negotiating ploy but it's not a lie either. These are nice pitchers but there will be better hurlers in future winters. If they come down to their price, sign them. If not, let someone else overpay. Is Cherington a disciplined negotiator or tied up by the team's purse strings? It's probably a little of both.

[One Red Seat]

So not only do we likely lose out on Oswalt but this gives Jackson more levarage to use against us

[pokey_reese]

So not only do we likely lose out on Oswalt but this gives Jackson more levarage to use against us

Only in one sense. It's also one fewer destination for Jackson, in theory. It isn't like Ben has been sending signals that he won't go into the year with what he has.

[The Boomer]

So not only do we likely lose out on Oswalt but this gives Jackson more levarage to use against us

Isn't Jackson represented by Boras? He is holding out for better offers and if Boras gets other teams to blink, someone will overpay. His agent will use such leverage with any teams willing to consider making an offer not just the Sox. Boras will pretend there is interest during negotiations even if there is none. Teams are starting to check with each other to avoid a Boras induced bidding war. A few exceptional elite players might be worth overpaying (though obviously they are truly worth what someone actually pays rather than our perceived fair market value). Boras keeps pushing the enveope until someone ultimately overpays for whatever reason. I doubt that Fielder would go to Detroit if V Mart hadn't been injured. Oswalt and Jackson are nice but are somewhat flawed. Future relatively less flawed pitchers available by trade or in free agency might be better buys (even if they are more expensive) once the Sox are finished with their payroll reorganization and don't face paying penalties for exceeding the luxury tax limit while negotiating with those pitchers. Both Oswalt and Jackson are basically middle of the rotation pitchers forced to slum for #5 starting jobs but with expectations of middle of the rotation pay. They will be worth it from the Sox perspective whenever they can be signed for that single make good season at prices more commensurate with their role as back end of the rotation starters. The Sox want to only pay what a #5 pitcher should be worth to them this season not what a middle of the rotation starter demands or expects.

Edited by The Boomer, 25 January 2012 - 10:20 PM.

[Corsi]

Hearing that Cards made bid approaching $5M on Oswalt weeks ago but not likely happening. Rangers probably win, at $2-3M more w/perks.

https://twitter.com/#!/JoeStrauss/status/162370410741112834

[jon abbey]

Why do the Rangers want another starter? Don't they already have too many? Would they move Feliz back to closer if they got Oswalt?

[jon abbey]

Holland/Darvish/Harrison/Feliz/Lewis, plus they still have Ogando. How does Oswalt slot in there, who gets bumped? Feliz is the obvious answer, but I thought they were set on trying to make him a starter.

[rembrat]

I'm really not sure. They have been trying to move Uehara to make room for Ogando's return to the bullpen. So that will eventually happen. My guess is they'll have Feliz get ready as a starter in ST and see how it goes. There is no certainty that it works out so I dont think they trade Harrison or Lewis to make room. Having 6 starters usually has a way of working itself out especially in that Texas heat.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Only in one sense. It's also one fewer destination for Jackson, in theory.

But as long as there are more destinations than quality pitchers--and I think there are--then every time you knock both a pitcher and a destination off the board, the remaining pitchers' leverage goes up.

[SoxScout]

If they do not succeed in signing Roy Oswalt, to whom they have made an offer, a team source said Wednesday night, they most likely will shift their focus to trying to swing a deal with the Chicago White Sox for right-hander Gavin Floyd, with free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson a long-shot option at this stage.

Oswalt remains their No. 1 target, though a team source acknowledged fears that Oswalt would prefer to pitch for either the Rangers or Cardinals.

"That's just guessing," one major league source said, reiterating Boston's significant interest in the 34-year-old right-hander, whose competitiveness is off the charts even though recurring back issues raise serious red flags.

Gordon Edes

[E5 Yaz]

I don't know if we'll trade for Gavin Floyd, but he has an interesting Twitter page

Who wants me to follow them use #GavinFollowMe!

http://twitter.com/GavinFloyd

[Kull]

If there's a theme to all these stories it's the Sox (and most other teams) know exactly how much money they have to play with before hitting the Cap. There's no chance the Sox sign Oswalt if it puts them over. Zero.

[kneemoe]

Why are the Sox so high on Oswalt when they passed on Bedard? They seem to have similar upside and downside (injury potential), and Bedard likely would have been cheaper as well as having the familiarity factor working for him.

Edited by kneemoe, 26 January 2012 - 09:46 AM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why are the Sox so high on Oswalt when they passed on Bedard? They seem to have similar upside and downside (injury potential), and Bedard likely would have been cheaper as well as having the familiarity factor working for him.

In the past eight seasons Oswalt has failed to make 30 starts just once. In that same span Bedard has made 30 starts just once. Oswalt over that period has averaged 206 IP per year; Bedard, 136.

Oswalt is a workhorse coming off his first serious injury in a long time, which is cause for caution; Bedard is a season-ending injury waiting to happen. Picking him up is a roll of the dice by definition. Last year, the Sox more or less won the gamble; no reason to assume they'd be lucky two years in a row.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Bedard is completely unreliable, though. Oswalt missed some time last year, but that's it. Could be wrong, but it didn't seem like either the Sox or Bedard was enamored with their experience with each other.

(or, what SH said.)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 26 January 2012 - 10:02 AM.