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Scutaro to Rockies?


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#1 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 20 January 2012 - 05:37 PM

Denver post is reporting this, makes you wonder if Oswalt might be around the corner, if that's the case then count me as in favor of this. Time to deal with Igleasas and his soon to be .230 average and stellar defense

#2 Brianish

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 05:43 PM

Depending on what we get back and/or what the extra money is used for, whatever. I suspect we'll be looking at Punto, not Iglesias though.

#3 The Jester of Tortuga

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 05:45 PM

Troy Renck
Hearing that the Rockies are close to acquiring Boston's Marco Scutaro. Will keep you posted

https://twitter.com/...487722383982592

Just came to post this, seems pretty obviously to be a move to free up a few million for a SP.
I would think they'll hand the starters role to Punto before Iglesias, though. He obviously coundn't handle AAA pitching (though he was very young for the league) so why risk stunting his development by putting him in the Majors.

Edited by The Jester of Tortuga, 20 January 2012 - 05:46 PM.


#4 AimingForYoko


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Posted 20 January 2012 - 05:46 PM

I don't know why the Rockies would do this other than salary dumping.

Eh. I don't mind either way. Other than Punto....*shudder*

#5 Reggie's Racquet

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 07:33 PM

Maybe Bud decided to give us Starlin Castro for Theo!

#6 walkoffblast

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Posted 20 January 2012 - 10:52 PM

Just a backup plan in case Ortiz wins the arbitration hearing. I wish I was certain that was sarcasm.

#7 zougwa

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 12:44 PM

Only way I could see this working for the Sox is if another SS option comes back in the deal. The Rockies are set with Tulowitzki, which makes me wonder if they would part with Tommy Field, a 24-year-old who made the jump from AA for a September call-up last year and has a career OBP of .372 in the minors.

No idea about his fielding, and since he hasn’t seen AAA I’m not sure how much of an option he would be over Iglesias. Plus he spent more time at 2B than SS last year, probably since they know they are set at SS. That position switch may not be working out, which is why they are looking at guys like Scutaro.

#8 Towney007

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 05:49 PM

Scooter would probably play second. I doubt the Red Sox get much in return. There *really* isn't a viable option at SS after Scooter - at least in a starter's sense - so I don't see this as being much of an option. I think it's the media cooking something up again. They seem particularly dumbfounded/impatient about the Red Sox not making a big move this offseason so they're trying to massage something.

Maybe they sign a Jeff Francis type, but I think they really might be done shopping for the year.

#9 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 05:53 PM

Its reportedly Scutaro for Clayton Mortenson...if this money isn't used towards Oswalt...RSN will riot.

#10 MakMan44


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 05:55 PM

This deal is becoming more and more likely. Which really sucks because I really like Scutaro. Anyways, it seems like the Sox aren't getting much except salary relief, which they would then use to get a pitcher. Whether this means Oswalt or Floyd or something worse, only time will tell. Personally, I'd like for them to get Floyd and then sign Ross for right field and call it an offseason but thats just me

#11 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 05:58 PM

This deal is becoming more and more likely. Which really sucks because I really like Scutaro. Anyways, it seems like the Sox aren't getting much except salary relief, which they would then use to get a pitcher. Whether this means Oswalt or Floyd or something worse, only time will tell. Personally, I'd like for them to get Floyd and then sign Ross for right field and call it an offseason but thats just me


Problem is this, Floyd would cost a lot in terms of prospects which Boston cannot afford to give up. Oswalt makes sense because the duration of the deal and financial risk is minimal.

#12 MakMan44


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:03 PM

I understand that but as it is we're going to have a platoon at SS, it seems. Having a platoon at both that and right field just do not scream playoff team to me. If we sign Oswalt, I don't think we're getting an upgrade at right field.

#13 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:06 PM

I understand that but as it is we're going to have a platoon at SS, it seems. Having a platoon at both that and right field just do not scream playoff team to me. If we sign Oswalt, I don't think we're getting an upgrade at right field.


Well the upgrade would be the Sox banking on Kalish being ready to take over in June and just using McDonald there. Which I'm not saying is a very smart move, but they could also have something lined up for their new found pitching depth for OF help. Maybe the Cubs and the Sox will swap Jenks for Byrd...could be the end game right there...

#14 Alex Slay 32

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:08 PM

Hanely for Youk, Sweeny, Doubrant, and another pitcher -- Bowden.

#15 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:10 PM

Hanely for Youk, Sweeny, Doubrant, and another pitcher -- Bowden.


Sweeny?

Regardless I would jump at any deal for Hanley...but this doesn't make sense

#16 stevman17

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:15 PM

I'm fine with this, so long as it leads to us signing a pitcher. I hated the Punto signing at first, but I think his value will be equal to what Scutaro would have given us this year. Punto is an elite fielder. Fangraphs defensive ratings of 6.4, 11, 4 in the last 3 years. Scutaro is at -.7, -4.8, .6. Punto is also 2 years younger.

#17 MakMan44


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:18 PM

Well the upgrade would be the Sox banking on Kalish being ready to take over in June and just using McDonald there. Which I'm not saying is a very smart move, but they could also have something lined up for their new found pitching depth for OF help. Maybe the Cubs and the Sox will swap Jenks for Byrd...could be the end game right there...


That's true. Well whatever it is, hope it's the offseason turn around because it has sucked so far, minus Baily of course.

#18 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:25 PM

If Kalish pans out and Jose is ready by May and the Sox use this money towards an established SP (not Francis) then this should work out okay. If not then 3rd place is going to be looking pretty damn good.

#19 Mike in CT



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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:45 PM

How do you make this trade without having Oswalt or Floyd already done?

Hearing that the Sox can now "make an aggressive bid" for Oswalt doesn't mean they are getting him. In fact, it conveniently sets up an "aw shucks, we tried" outcome where Oswalt ends up elsewhere and ownership gets below the tax.

#20 Towney007

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 06:53 PM

While I understand your cynicism, if that's indeed what happens, the fan base will completely revolt - as obnoxious as that is. So I'd think Oswalt or Floyd are probably eminent.

#21 ivanvamp


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 07:12 PM

While I understand your cynicism, if that's indeed what happens, the fan base will completely revolt - as obnoxious as that is. So I'd think Oswalt or Floyd are probably eminent.


Word is the Sox are making an aggressive bid for Oswalt now that they have money freed up. Ok fine. But I don't like Punto at SS at all. Sox' opening day starting lineup could be:

CF Ellsbury
2b Pedroia
1b Gonzalez
3b Youkilis
DH Ortiz
C Saltalamacchia
RF Sweeney
LF McDonald
SS Punto

That last 3....ugh. Then again, the Cardinals - you know, the team that just won the World Series - had these three in their starting lineup:

SS Ryan Theriot (71 ops+ in 2010)
C Yadier Molina (86 ops+ in 2010)
2b Skip Schumaker (83 ops+ in 2010)

So hey, it's not necessarily the end of the world.

EDIT: This was StL's opening day starting lineup.

Edited by ivanvamp, 21 January 2012 - 09:04 PM.


#22 SOXMANIAC

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 07:55 PM

Bigger trade to follow?

This trade could be a precursor to a more significant trade. With Padila, Cook and potentially Oswalt (and I personally think Doubront is a sleeper here as well) we may have filled out the 4 and 5th starter allowing Bard and Acevio to remain in the bullpen along with Bailey. This could make Melancoln superflous and potentially attractive to clubs in need of cheap bullpen help. Depending on how bold Cherrington is he could be looking to package Melancoln and possible Youkilis to acquire Hanley Ramirez. This will allow Avilies and Punto to platoon at 3rd until Middlebrooks is ready mid-season.

#23 Sampo Gida

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 07:57 PM

I'm fine with this, so long as it leads to us signing a pitcher. I hated the Punto signing at first, but I think his value will be equal to what Scutaro would have given us this year. Punto is an elite fielder. Fangraphs defensive ratings of 6.4, 11, 4 in the last 3 years. Scutaro is at -.7, -4.8, .6. Punto is also 2 years younger.


Punto has been on the DL 5 times in the past 3 years despite being a bench player. He started all of 32 games last year, only 5 st SS (has started 27 games at SS over 2 years). Last year he had a career year offensively, albeit in only 133 AB, that he is unlikely to repeat (625 OPS over previous 4 years).

On paper his value does not appear to equal that of Scutaros.

#24 Towney007

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 08:16 PM

I would think that a rotation of

Lester
Beckett
[I am an Idiot]
Oswalt
Bard/Padilla

is pretty formidable. Especially if Padilla can find something left in the tank and they can keep Bard in the bullpen, then there's a good chance their pen gets *a lot* better and pitching on a whole is *a lot* deeper. With Aceves there, too - it basically takes the pressure off of having to rush Dice-K back. I think this is a perfectly reasonable move.

A lot of value in a SS is directly related to their glove, not so much their bat, but an Aviles/Punto platoon probably gives you an MLB average SS at that position. It hurts your depth a bit, but it's OK. Sweeney/McDonald/Kalish isn't really bad, either considering that RF was a black hole last year for the most part. If they've got to make a move to get another outfielder, there's a lot more of those running around then there would be pitchers. So it makes sense in a way.

#25 untilthebombs

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 08:52 PM

Word is the Sox are making an aggressive bid for Oswalt now that they have money freed up. Ok fine. But I don't like Punto at SS at all. Sox' opening day starting lineup could be:

CF Ellsbury
2b Pedroia
1b Gonzalez
3b Youkilis
DH Ortiz
C Saltalamacchia
RF Sweeney
LF McDonald
SS Punto

That last 3....ugh. Then again, the Cardinals - you know, the team that just won the World Series - had these three in their starting lineup:

SS Ryan Theriot (71 ops+ in 2010)
C Yadier Molina (86 ops+ in 2010)
2b Skip Schumaker (83 ops+ in 2010)

So hey, it's not necessarily the end of the world.


I think it's safe to assume that Aviles will get the majority of time at SS.

#26 Towney007

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 09:06 PM

I'd think so.

Assuming Youkilis can stay healthy and Crawford sucks a little less, they'll more than make up for any loss of production from Scutaro.

#27 Cellar-Door

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 10:02 PM

I'm fine with a Punto/Aviles platoon at SS, it is worse than Scutaro, but about what you would likely get out of Lowrie, probably a bit better when you figure in fielding.
At SS
Punto UZR 150 of 10.5 over 810 Innings last 3 years
Aviles UZR 150 of -2.8 over 464 innings last 3 years
Lowrie UZR 150 of -8.7 over 738 innings last 3 years

Last 3 years wOBA
Punto-.300
Aviles-.305
Lowrie-.317

#28 ivanvamp


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Posted 21 January 2012 - 10:35 PM

I think if this is a precursor to an Oswalt or Floyd acquisition, the Sox will be just fine. Let's say Oswalt arrives in Boston. I think the Sox can expect better performances from Youkilis (hopefully not injured), Gonzalez (he should hit with more power), Saltalamacchia (he's improving at the plate, Crawford (starting on the DL most likely but I can't imagine his overall production won't be better than last year), and RF (they had the worst combined RF production in the AL last year). Looks like SS production will be worse, but it isn't like Scutaro was ARod. I expect Ellsbury to be a bit worse, but Pedroia should be roughly the same.

It's pitching where maybe they've improved. Lester, Beckett, a healthy Buchholz, Oswalt, and either Bard or Padilla - that's better than Beckett, Lester, a little bit of Buchholz, the massive pile of crap that was Lackey, and the sucky pu-pu platter the Sox threw out as their #5 last year.

The bullpen? Well, Paps is gone, but Melancon and Bailey are a good 1-2. I think the pen will be just fine.

Overall, assuming they land Oswalt or Floyd, this team is probably going to be just fine.

#29 walkoffblast

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Posted 21 January 2012 - 11:27 PM

Hmm -Scutaro +Floyd +Alexei Ramirez adds only around 3 mil in AAV I think. If Iglesias is traded somewhere then it is almost a wash.

#30 Sampo Gida

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 12:14 AM

I'm fine with a Punto/Aviles platoon at SS, it is worse than Scutaro, but about what you would likely get out of Lowrie, probably a bit better when you figure in fielding.
At SS
Punto UZR 150 of 10.5 over 810 Innings last 3 years
Aviles UZR 150 of -2.8 over 464 innings last 3 years
Lowrie UZR 150 of -8.7 over 738 innings last 3 years

Last 3 years wOBA
Punto-.300
Aviles-.305
Lowrie-.317


Punto is 3 years older and 5 DL trips from playing any substantial amount of time at SS. Fielding Bible has Punto at 0 runs saved over the last 3 years at SS. These are SSS though and I have not seen him play all that much at SSS so I really have no idea

Aviles has only started 52 games at SS over the last 3 years.

Maybe it works out, or maybe they have some other plan to replace Scutaro, but right now I can't feel that great about SS and IF depth in general.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 22 January 2012 - 12:14 AM.


#31 MikeM

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 01:29 AM

For all the talk about the other shoe dropping here, there is the possibility that this is in fact shoe drop #2 imo, in response to the getting stuck with the David Ortiz contract (while initially projecting to have a latter choice in matter there, back when the decision was made to excercise Scutaro's option in the first place. Which to note, we did save us $1.5m buyout here over simply declining it)

IDK, maybe this dump was made in order to make a legitimate attempt at Oswalt, but i still can't see how people are adding anything up to Floyd. I mean, what's the specific trade there that actually gets it done? It's not like there isn't other equally interested suitors on Floyd out there, and/or we are stocked up in the generally required trade bait/MLB-ready pieces department.

Can't see us going in to the season with this proposed Punto/Aviles platoon either. At least right now, and with my first hunch being there is a low-cost/out-of-the-blue 3rd party about to enter the mix there. Not like we wouldn't still need another IF'er now anyway.

#32 Towney007

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 02:35 AM

I think a Gavin Floyd trade is easier than people are assuming. The Red Sox have a lot of the kinds of players that Kenny Williams has always really valued. Lavarnway makes a lot of sense for them, especially considering what a shit show Adam Dunn was last year and that AJ PIerzynski is coming up on the last year of HIS contract. I'd have to think he's a part of the deal.

I think Iglesias goes, too. To be honest - I hope he does. I know a lot of folks are still high-ish on him and while he's got a spectacular glove, I've seen absolutely nothing that'd suggest his bat is going to come around and considering the fact that the Red Sox could stand to drop some cash and with the emergence of Xander Bogaerts, I think Iglesias becomes expendable. Add a 'C' prospect and I think it's a done deal.

Iglesias presumably frees up some space to get a filler for SS... Ryan Theriot might be someone they look at. I also think people are short changing Aviles. Let's not forget he was a 4 WAR player once upon a time before getting hampered with injuries. That and Dayton Moore's absolute love affair with Yusniesky Betancourt...

I think the Sox def. nab a pitcher in the next 2-3 days though. Oswalt/Floyd really change the dynamic of that rotation considerably, taking a lot of pressure off the Bard conversion. That's assuming Padilla/Cook/Silva don't beat him out for the spot out of ST and you basically add Bailey and Melancon to Aceves and Bard in the 'pen. I think they can make up for Scooter's loss a variety of different ways in the lineup. Without an Oswalt/Floyd in the rotation, I'm not sure it happens out of the rotation. So yeah, I'm OK with this so long as they grab a pitcher. If not, it's going to be a long year.

Edited by Towney007, 22 January 2012 - 02:36 AM.


#33 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 09:04 AM

I really don't see why Iglesias shouldn't be our starting SS. If we can put up with the likes of Alex Gonzalez and Alex Cora at that position why not Jose? His glove is vastly better than those two and he'll probably have the same offensive production. The kid is 22yrs old. I've never been in agreement that these kids need time to groom in AAA to advance their hitting. The best way to prepare for ML pitching is to see it everyday. If he can even remotely get to avg. offense for a SS he's a perennial all star. Why not take a shot?

Scutaro was pretty decent at that position the past couple years, but injury and age meant that his production was going to decline. This is only a good move if it nets us someone else. If it's a salary dump only, then not so much. I guess we'll see.

#34 keyalyn

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 09:44 AM

I really don't see why Iglesias shouldn't be our starting SS. If we can put up with the likes of Alex Gonzalez and Alex Cora at that position why not Jose? His glove is vastly better than those two and he'll probably have the same offensive production. The kid is 22yrs old. I've never been in agreement that these kids need time to groom in AAA to advance their hitting. The best way to prepare for ML pitching is to see it everyday. If he can even remotely get to avg. offense for a SS he's a perennial all star. Why not take a shot?

Scutaro was pretty decent at that position the past couple years, but injury and age meant that his production was going to decline. This is only a good move if it nets us someone else. If it's a salary dump only, then not so much. I guess we'll see.


If they could expect his offense to be anything in the vacinity of average next season than this would be a fair argument. But as of right now they can't expect anything but horrific offense from him. He hit .235/.285/.269 last season in AAA. Shortstops in the AL last season hit .266/.321/.386. His OPS was over 150 points lower than the league average SS last season. His OPS was 140 points lower than Crawford's last season. And this was in AAA. His MLE line last season was .203/.238/.232.

Alex Cora had a .670OPS with the Red Sox, and Alex Gonzalez had a .716OPS. Based on what he has done in the minors, Iglesias would likely have an OPS around .500. He could be the best defender in the game, but if he has an OPS like that he will be a liability as a player.

#35 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 10:12 AM

in 96 gms in '04 Pokey had an OPS of .574. Lugo in '07 was .634. And we won the World Series.

Edited by Eck'sSneakyCheese, 22 January 2012 - 10:16 AM.


#36 keyalyn

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 10:58 AM

As shitty offensively as they were, Iglesias would be sizably worse based on 2011. His MLE OPS was over 100 points lower than Pokey's.

#37 TOleary25

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 11:15 AM

If the next shoe to drop is Oswalt and the only way to get him was to clear salary, I am for this deal. I think Aviles is a little underrated generally and Scutaro will probably regress some.

Aviles had a great year in 2008, largely due to his .357 BABIP and his 11.7 UZR at SS. In 2009, apparently he was playing hurt and didn't tell the Royals that he was until halfway through the season. His .276 BABIP last year should improve since he has a lifetime .316 BABIP. The one thing that is hard to evaluate is his defense. After 2008, he has had small sample sizes at short but 2009 was the only year he has posted a negative UZR (possibly due to injury).

If we had the payroll to have both Scutaro and Oswalt that would be ideal. But if I had to choose between a package of Scutaro and Cook/Padilla/etc. versus Oswalt and Aviles, I'd go with the latter.

#38 pantsparty

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 12:51 PM

I really don't see why Iglesias shouldn't be our starting SS. If we can put up with the likes of Alex Gonzalez and Alex Cora at that position why not Jose? His glove is vastly better than those two and he'll probably have the same offensive production. The kid is 22yrs old. I've never been in agreement that these kids need time to groom in AAA to advance their hitting. The best way to prepare for ML pitching is to see it everyday. If he can even remotely get to avg. offense for a SS he's a perennial all star. Why not take a shot?

Scutaro was pretty decent at that position the past couple years, but injury and age meant that his production was going to decline. This is only a good move if it nets us someone else. If it's a salary dump only, then not so much. I guess we'll see.


I think you're missing just how bad Iglesias' offense was last year in AAA - his OPS was .554, and that's at AAA. The rest of the Sox lineup is good, but not good enough to carry that sort of poor production. You can say "I don't think someone would need more time in AAA to better prepare for ML pitching," but if someone is that bad against AAA pitching, how could they possibly do better against ML pitching?

Edited by pantsparty, 22 January 2012 - 12:54 PM.


#39 Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 01:40 PM

Different approach? Different coaches? The fact that he's only 22? I say give him a shot. My point was that, I assume that our line-up can support poor production offensively from SS. You assume it can't. Either way we're guessing. I fully understand how bad he was offensively. His glove would give us an elite infield defensively, and IMO the runs he saves us in the field would make up for the lack at the plate.

#40 MikeM

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 05:12 PM

Different approach? Different coaches? The fact that he's only 22? I say give him a shot. My point was that, I assume that our line-up can support poor production offensively from SS. You assume it can't. Either way we're guessing. I fully understand how bad he was offensively. His glove would give us an elite infield defensively, and IMO the runs he saves us in the field would make up for the lack at the plate.


The Sox lineup was already projecting to take a likely step backwards as a whole, before we made this trade. Which isn't to say Scutao wasn't a prime candidate himself to contribute to that regression mind you, or that we are going to likely find ourselves scrounging for offense or anything, but still. Big picture there and all, alot can potentially happen between the other 7 guys outside Pedroia/Gonzalez, who essentially are the one 2 "sure things" i'm not left questioning in some capacity or another atm.

As far as playing Iglesias now goes, and with all due respect there, that just extends over-hype into the realm of complete madness as far as i'm concerned. I get Iglesias is a great defensive player, i really do. But there's a difference between throwing around juicy terms like "generational defense" to justify spending $8m on that type of skillset player, and actually buying in to that hype and then hurting yourself at the major league level because of it. In general, people are getting too carried away over that cozy BA ranking last year, which was fueled largely on reputational hype imo,. As good as one's defense may or may not be, you can't be utterly non-existent offensively at the MLB level, which is/should be the current projection there on Iglesias.

Two bobbled balls and few weeks of consistent automatic outs/rally kills would all but put this kid's already sketchy future to bed by May 1st imo.

#41 MikeM

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 05:36 PM

I think a Gavin Floyd trade is easier than people are assuming. The Red Sox have a lot of the kinds of players that Kenny Williams has always really valued. Lavarnway makes a lot of sense for them, especially considering what a shit show Adam Dunn was last year and that AJ PIerzynski is coming up on the last year of HIS contract. I'd have to think he's a part of the deal.

I think Iglesias goes, too. To be honest - I hope he does. I know a lot of folks are still high-ish on him and while he's got a spectacular glove, I've seen absolutely nothing that'd suggest his bat is going to come around and considering the fact that the Red Sox could stand to drop some cash and with the emergence of Xander Bogaerts, I think Iglesias becomes expendable. Add a 'C' prospect and I think it's a done deal.

Iglesias presumably frees up some space to get a filler for SS... Ryan Theriot might be someone they look at. I also think people are short changing Aviles. Let's not forget he was a 4 WAR player once upon a time before getting hampered with injuries. That and Dayton Moore's absolute love affair with Yusniesky Betancourt...


I can't see Lavarnway/Iglesias/C-prospect netting us Floyd. Iglesias' trading value is negated at best by his MLB contract imo, and while i personally like Lavarnway, i don't see him driving that package by himself.

Then again we are speculating from a surrounding landscape where Oswalt apparently can't drum up 1/$10m interest as a free agent, and Floyd isn't exactly making the league min anymore, so who knows i guess.

#42 LostinNJ

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 05:50 PM

If the goal is to get under the luxury tax threshold, which seems both likely and sensible, then they won't be adding the salary of someone like Oswalt or Floyd unless they have another move in the works to create some space, but for that I can't think of anything that makes sense both for the Red Sox and for a potential trade partner,

#43 Cellar-Door

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 06:35 PM

The Sox lineup was already projecting to take a likely step backwards as a whole, before we made this trade. Which isn't to say Scutao wasn't a prime candidate himself to contribute to that regression mind you, or that we are going to likely find ourselves scrounging for offense or anything, but still. Big picture there and all, alot can potentially happen between the other 7 guys outside Pedroia/Gonzalez, who essentially are the one 2 "sure things" i'm not left questioning in some capacity or another atm.

I'm not sure why the lineup was projected to take a step backwards before this trade, the only changes are the substitution of Lavarnway for Varitek, and Some combination of Sweeney/McDonald/FA to be named for Reddick/Drew (.233/.299/.353) That isn't really likely to be much of if any step backward from the production we got last year. This was the best offense in baseball last year, and even with Punto/Aviles at SS is likely to be one of the top 5 offenses again this year even without any major additions.

#44 Sampo Gida

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 08:42 PM

If the goal is to get under the luxury tax threshold, which seems both likely and sensible, then they won't be adding the salary of someone like Oswalt or Floyd unless they have another move in the works to create some space, but for that I can't think of anything that makes sense both for the Red Sox and for a potential trade partner,


Youkillis would be the only guy making enough, or Ellsbury, You would get more for Ellsbury of course, but he makes less than Youk (8 vs 12 million) and OF is already a weak spot unless Carl rebounds and Kalish can gets healthy .

Youk could be traded in mid season. A good first half would restore his value so we get some decent prospects and while losing close to 6 million in payroll. Presumably WMB would be ready for the big show before they traded Youk. The team that would trade for Youk would be a contender who had a need of someone at 1B, 3B or DH. That need may not be apparent now but may develop due to injury or non-performance.

#45 MikeM

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 08:52 PM

I'm not sure why the lineup was projected to take a step backwards before this trade, the only changes are the substitution of Lavarnway for Varitek, and Some combination of Sweeney/McDonald/FA to be named for Reddick/Drew (.233/.299/.353) That isn't really likely to be much of if any step backward from the production we got last year. This was the best offense in baseball last year, and even with Punto/Aviles at SS is likely to be one of the top 5 offenses again this year even without any major additions.


My money is on Ellsbury, Ortiz, and (maybe) Gonzalez all experiencing regressions, at least to an extent that a comparitive step backwards will be present/visable, reguardless of the improvements we may/may not experience elsewhere.

Again, which isn't to say this team can't or should be expected to be a top 5 offense mind you. Just that the whole "we had the best offense in baseball in 2011, therefore we can obviously afford to completely concede a spot in our 2012 lineup" logic at the base there strikes me as as being rather overly-simplified/optimisic.

Edited by MikeM, 22 January 2012 - 08:54 PM.


#46 MikeM

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Posted 22 January 2012 - 09:09 PM

If the goal is to get under the luxury tax threshold, which seems both likely and sensible, then they won't be adding the salary of someone like Oswalt or Floyd unless they have another move in the works to create some space, but for that I can't think of anything that makes sense both for the Red Sox and for a potential trade partner,


Granted, Scutaro getting traded does currently project to keep us slightly under the cap (rough estimate). Assuming we don't spend more then league min-ish rounding ut the roster, or cycle through much more then initial 25 over the course of the year.

Keep in mind though that Scutaro being traded isn't exactly some newly presented concept as well though, which would otherwise better support the theory on this being a complete reactionary move based on our current position. Rumors that the Sox would be looking to move him have existed from right out the gate this winter.

#47 Sampo Gida

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 02:16 AM

Keep in mind though that Scutaro being traded isn't exactly some newly presented concept as well though, which would otherwise better support the theory on this being a complete reactionary move based on our current position. Rumors that the Sox would be looking to move him have existed from right out the gate this winter.


Those rumors pretty much dried up after they picked up his option and then traded Lowrie. Nobody credible ever imagined Punto/Aviles as our starting SS on opening day, nor the hitless boy wonder prospect with the Pawsox..

He got basically nothing except a body and a name to make it look less like a salary dump, unless you think a 27 yo non prospect with an 87 mph FB, a 9+ ERA in Triple A last year and a career 5.15 ERA in 13 MLB starts is fair value for a reasonably priced above league average SS that Fan Graphs had valued at 12.9 million last year. So it does look like a reactionary move to free up money to sign a SP'er after collecting a boat load of reclamation projects and hoping one of them works out, while pinning hopes on one or 2 bullpen arms making the transition to starter, hoping Daisuke can come back from TJ surgery and be the pitcher we have not seen since 2008, or hoping Doubront can stay healthy and be effective at the MLB level or hoping Miller can finally learn to pitch.

#48 MikeM

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 06:59 AM

Those rumors pretty much dried up after they picked up his option and then traded Lowrie. Nobody credible ever imagined Punto/Aviles as our starting SS on opening day, nor the hitless boy wonder prospect with the Pawsox..

He got basically nothing except a body and a name to make it look less like a salary dump, unless you think a 27 yo non prospect with an 87 mph FB, a 9+ ERA in Triple A last year and a career 5.15 ERA in 13 MLB starts is fair value for a reasonably priced above league average SS that Fan Graphs had valued at 12.9 million last year. So it does look like a reactionary move to free up money to sign a SP'er after collecting a boat load of reclamation projects and hoping one of them works out, while pinning hopes on one or 2 bullpen arms making the transition to starter, hoping Daisuke can come back from TJ surgery and be the pitcher we have not seen since 2008, or hoping Doubront can stay healthy and be effective at the MLB level or hoping Miller can finally learn to pitch.


So what, the Rockies express an interest in trading for Scutaro back in the beginning of Decemeber, and between then and pulling the trigger with them on Saterday Ben never explores any alternative options? That's seems like quite the stretch imo.

In fact, that the return ended up being a push on his salary really shouldn't be all that surprising either. Especially given how generally tight the spending we've seen as a whole has been this winter. $6m for a 36 year old career .272/.338/.389 shortstop, who appears to have spent the last year and a half continuously dealing with physical ailments (shoulder, neck, oblique, back), has more of a selective appeal going for it then anything else. Which likely showed as such in the end result of that trade.

I mean let's not carried away here. A year from now, i'm honestly doubting we'll see a dramtic difference play out in a comparison of Scutaro and Punto/Aviles. So in the hypothetical event our internal evaluation on Scutaro being a full time contributor at SS in 2012 was kinda sketchy, which *is* an alternative possibility here, then there would indeed be some solid financial logic in/behind shedding that salary atm.

#49 Kilgore A. Trout


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Posted 23 January 2012 - 10:09 AM

I'm okay with this trade. As much as I liked Marco, I think people are over valuing Scutaro here. He was about average, and the money is needed elsewhere. Going with Aviles and Punto for the time being is fine. Maybe offensively it'll be a downgrade, but I don't think as much as many here seem to feel it will be. And let's be honest Marco's defense was pretty much average. I thing the SS platoon can manage that.
And you never know about Iglesias. If he really is as good with the glove as all acounts and stats say he is, he might be up and starting by mid season. Maybe earlier. And it wouldn't be a bad thing. Go look at Ozzie Smith's offensive numbers, especially his first few years. He didn't have anything even approaching a good offensive year till he was 31. Of course it'd be unfair to expect the kid to have Ozzie's level of 'wizardry' in the field, but perhaps having what could be the best infield defense in the game would be worth the offensive hole in the 9 spot.

#50 untilthebombs

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Posted 23 January 2012 - 10:55 AM

Those rumors pretty much dried up after they picked up his option and then traded Lowrie. Nobody credible ever imagined Punto/Aviles as our starting SS on opening day, nor the hitless boy wonder prospect with the Pawsox..

He got basically nothing except a body and a name to make it look less like a salary dump, unless you think a 27 yo non prospect with an 87 mph FB, a 9+ ERA in Triple A last year and a career 5.15 ERA in 13 MLB starts is fair value for a reasonably priced above league average SS that Fan Graphs had valued at 12.9 million last year. So it does look like a reactionary move to free up money to sign a SP'er after collecting a boat load of reclamation projects and hoping one of them works out, while pinning hopes on one or 2 bullpen arms making the transition to starter, hoping Daisuke can come back from TJ surgery and be the pitcher we have not seen since 2008, or hoping Doubront can stay healthy and be effective at the MLB level or hoping Miller can finally learn to pitch.


I would agree that it's a reactionary move, but to the starting pitcher market; that Oswalt and Jackson remain available at presumably reduced prices.




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